After five posts predicting the other major categories for this year’s Academy Awards, we’ve arrived at the biggest race of all: Best Picture. Here are the nine nominees:
American Hustle
Captain Phillips
Dallas Buyers Club
Gravity
Her
Nebraska
Philomena
12 Years a Slave
The Wolf of Wall Street
As I see it, there are three films that stand a realistic chance at taking home the gold. Those three do not include Captain Phillips, Dallas Buyers Club, Her, Nebraska, Philomena, or The Wolf of Wall Street.
That leaves us with American Hustle, Gravity, and 12 Years a Slave.
While I have predicted that Alfonso Cuaron will win Best Director for Gravity (a pick I’m highly confident in), the chances of his picture winning are much more slim. While it was a hit with audiences and critics – the sci-fi epic has won no major precursors to speak of. Its recognition should come to Cuaron and in various technical categories.
American Hustle certainly has plenty of fans and director David O. Russell has been on a heckuva hot streak. The pic stands the second best chance of being the victor.
However, the fact is that Steve McQueen’s 12 Years a Slave is undeniably the frontrunner and it has been for awhile. Slave has won a slew of precursors, including the Golden Globe for Best Drama. From an odds perspective, I’d put it this way:
12 Years a Slave: 75% chance of winning
American Hustle: 20% chance of winning
Gravity: 5% chance of winning
Predicted Winner: 12 Years a Slave
For a full breakdown of my picks, here ya go:
Picture – 12 Years a Slave
Director – Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity
Actor – Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
Actress – Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
Supporting Actor – Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club
Supporting Actress – Lupita Nyong’o, 12 Years a Slave
Next weekend – I’ll have my final predictions in all categories before the big show. If any of the six major ones change in the next week (unlikely), I’ll act accordingly. Until then!
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