The weekend before Thanksgiving brings us one of the year’s most anticipated titles, The Hunger Games: Catching Fire, which is primed for an explosive debut. The sequel will look to build upon the $152 million that its predecessor opened at in March 2012. My prediction puts it at #4 for all-time domestic openings. You can read my detailed post here:
https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/11/17/the-hunger-games-catching-fire-box-office-prediction/
I have #2 and #3 as other sequels. Thor: The Dark World is likely to lose over half its audience in the third weekend. The Best Man Holiday debuted well beyond expectations with $30 million. Conventional wisdom tells me it’s likely to lose over 50% in weekend #2, but considering its rare A+ Cinemascore grade, it may not fall that far. The two should post very close results fighting for the runner-up spot.
The weekend’s loser may well be Vince Vaughn’s Delivery Man, which is garnering mixed reviews and has been running a tepid marketing campaign. I expect a disappointing opening and you can read my detailed post on it here:
https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/11/17/delivery-man-box-office-prediction/
Rounding out the top five should be either holdovers Last Vegas or Free Birds, but I’ll give the edge to Vegas in weekend #4. And with that, my predictions for the weekend’s top five:
1. The Hunger Games: Catching Fire
Predicted Gross: $166.7 million
2. Thor: The Dark World
Predicted Gross: $16.1 million (representing a drop of 56%)
3. The Best Man Holiday
Predicted Gross: $15.9 million (representing a drop of 47%)
4. Delivery Man
Predicted Gross: $11.2 million
5. Last Vegas
Predicted Gross: $6.2 million (representing a drop of 26%)
Check the blog’s Facebook page on Saturday for early results with final results on the blog Sunday!
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