It isn’t often you have a weekend showcasing three new pictures that all stand reasonable shots at opening in first place, but that’s the situation we find ourselves for the first weekend of November 2013. We have the sci-fi epic Ender’s Game, the animated Thanksgiving tale Free Birds, and the all-star comedy Last Vegas all debuting. You could make legit arguments for any one of them being the weekend’s champ. You can find my individual prediction posts on all three here:
https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/10/27/enders-game-box-office-prediction/
https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/10/27/free-birds-box-office-prediction/
https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/10/27/last-vegas-box-office-prediction/
The odds-on favorite is Ender’s Game and I have it easily taking the top spot. However, there is the chance it could flop and allow one of the others to leapfrog it. Free Birds could capitalize on its Thanksgiving subject matter. Last Vegas could cash in on the star power of Robert De Niro, Morgan Freeman, Michael Douglas, and Kevin Kline.
Ultimately, though, I’m not betting against Ender’s Game winning the weekend. As for holdovers, it could be a tight race for the four spot as Gravity will likely experience its typical small decline while last weekend’s #1 Bad Grandpa is poised to fall more than 50%.
Outside of the top five, Oscar front runner 12 Years a Slave expands to 400 theaters and could take in $3.5-$4 million.
And with that, my predictions for the weekend’s top five:
1. Ender’s Game
Predicted Gross: $32.9 million
2. Free Birds
Predicted Gross: $21 million
3. Last Vegas
Predicted Gross: $19.2 million
4. Gravity
Predicted Gross: $13.9 million (representing a drop of 31%)
5. Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa
Predicted Gross: $13.7 million (representing a drop of 57%)
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