With Robert Pattinson headlining as To Catch a Predator host Chris Hansen, Primetime is exposed in multiplexes starting September 25th. Lance Oppenheim, a documentarian making his narrative feature debut, directs (he’s got the buzzy doc You Can See Everything out in October). Costars include Merritt Wever, Skyler Gisondo, Phoebe Bridgers, Bokeem Woodbine, Anna Faris, and Tony Revolori.
Primetime picked up mostly positive buzz after its unveiling at the Venice Film Festival. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 93% with Metacritic at 73. There is chatter for the busy Pattinson nabbing his first Oscar nomination. Will that translate to lots of moviegoers having a seat in theaters?
A solid result would be anything north of $10 million and I think that is achievable. I’ll go a bit over and put it in low teens as it hopes WOM keeps it afloat moving forward.
Primetime opening weekend prediction: $14.5 million
For my Avengers Endgame: Encore prediction, click here:
I did my last Oscar predictions update as August closed out and a lot has occurred since then. The Venice and Telluride Film Festivals have come and gone and Toronto’s is ongoing. We have buzz, reviews, and WOM on plenty more movies. You can peruse my blog for detailed posts on them.
So what’s changed and what’s changed the same? Let’s start with the same. The Odyssey and The Black Ball are still 1-2 in BP while Wild Horse Nine and The Debut have risen after their festival debuts. Yet there’s only a single newcomer in BP and it’s from a foreign feature that premiered months ago at Cannes. I’m swapping in All of a Sudden for Fjord (which won the Palme d’Or at that French fest back in May).
In Other Possibilities in Best Picture, You Can See Everything pops up in 19th. At Telluride, it was a project no one knew existed and the documentary focused on Nathan Fielder’s dealings with Elizabeth Holmes sits at #2 in Doc Feature behind new #1 NAZA. That doc received the longest recorded standing ovation in Venice history. Everything has a teaser that has already inspired countless memes.
In Best Actress, I already had Julianne Moore (The Debut) in 1st place but its unveiling certainly solidifies it. Same goes for her costar in Paul Giamatti in Supporting Actor.
John Malkovich rises to 1st in Best Actor for Wild Horse Nine with Elsinore‘s Andrew Scott on his heels and Matt Damon (The Odyssey) dropping from 1st to 3rd.
The All of a Sudden momentum benefits Virginie Efira in Best Actress. She joins the projected quintet with Renate Reinsve (Fjord) on the outside looking in. Efira’s costar Tao Okamoto rises in Supporting Actress as does Samantha Morton (The Odyssey) with Mariana di Girolamo (Wild Horse Nine) and Olivia Colman (Elsinore) dropping.
You can read all the movement below. I’ll note that The Odyssey is back up to 16 nominations which ties it with Sinners for the all-time record. My next update is coming in two weeks!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (+1)
4. The Debut (PR: 8) (+4)
5. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (-2)
6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Invite (PR: 7) (E)
8. Obsession (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Behemoth! (PR: 10) (+1)
10. All of a Sudden (PR: 13) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
11. Fjord (PR: 6) (-5)
12. Digger (PR: 12) (E)
13. Michael (PR: 15) (+2)
14. Possible Love (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Elsinore (PR: 14) (-1)
16. I Play Rocky (PR: Not Ranked)
17. Ink (PR: 11) (-6)
18. Club Kid (PR: 24) (+6)
19. You Can See Everything (PR: Not Ranked)
20. The Social Reckoning (PR: 17) (-3)
21. Werwulf (PR: 19) (-2)
22. Being Heumann (PR: 20) (-2)
23. Primetime (PR: 16) (-7)
24. Josephine (PR: 22) (-2)
25. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 18) (-7)
Dropped Out:
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth
Disclosure Day
A Long Winter
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo, The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)
4. Olivia Wilde, The Invite (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Jesse Eisenberg, The Debut (PR: 11) (+6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden (PR: 10) (+4)
7. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (E)
8. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Cristian Mingiu, Fjord (PR: 4) (-5)
10. Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Digger (PR: 8) (-2)
11. Tony Gilroy, Behemoth! (PR: 9) (-2)
12. Lee Chang-dong, Possible Love (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Curry Barker, Obsession (PR: 13) (E)
14. Danny Boyle, Ink (PR: 12) (-2)
15. Robert Eggers, Werwulf (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Lance Oppenheim, Primetime
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Julianne Moore, The Debut (PR: 1) (E)
2. Inde Navarrette, Obsession (PR: 2) (E)
3. Olivia Wilde, The Invite (PR: 3) (E)
4. Sandra Hüller, Rose (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Renate Reinsve, Fjord (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie (PR: 7) (E)
8. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Léa Seydoux, Gentle Monster (PR: 11) (+2)
10. Rosalind Eleazar, Misty Green (PR: 14) (+4)
11. Emily Blunt, Disclosure Day (PR: 8) (-3)
12. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning (PR: 9) (-4)
14. Sandra Hüller, Fatherland (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Mason Reeves, Josephine (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Andrew Scott, Elsinore (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Matt Damon, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (-2)
4. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Robert Pattinson, Primetime (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tom Cruise, Digger (PR: 6) (E)
7. Pedro Pascal, Behemoth! (PR: 7) (E)
8. Anthony Ippolito, I Play Rocky (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Jaafar Jackson, Michael (PR: 9) (E)
10. Sebastian Stan, Fjord (PR: 8) (-2)
11. John Turturro, The Only Living Pickpocket in New York (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Seth Rogen, The Invite (PR: 10) (-2)
13. Andrew Garfield, Artificial (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Jordan Firstman, Club Kid (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jack O’Connell, Ink
Dominic Sessa, Tony
Javier Bardem, The Beloved
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Penélope Cruz, The Invite (PR: 2) (E)
3. Samantha Morton, The Odyssey (PR: 7) (+4)
4. Lola Dueñas, The Black Ball (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Tao Okamoto, All of a Sudden (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Olivia Colman, Elsinore (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Penélope Cruz, The Black Ball (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Mariana di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (-5)
9. Sandra Hüller, Digger (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 12) (+2)
11. Scarlett Johansson, Paper Tiger (PR: 15) (+4)
12. Gillian Anderson, Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Eva Victor, Behemoth! (PR: 14) (+1)
14. Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 9) (-5)
15. Elizabeth Debicki, The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Claire Foy, Ink
Esmé Creed-Miles, Sense and Sensibility
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Paul Giamatti, The Debut (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 2) (E)
3. Edward Norton, The Invite (PR: 3) (E)
4. John Leguizamo, The Odyssey (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Guy Pearce, Ink (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. John Goodman, Digger (PR: 6) (E)
7. Robert Pattinson, The Odyssey (PR: 14) (+7)
8. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning (PR: 8) (E)
9. Colman Domingo, Michael (PR: 9) (E)
10. Guitarricadelafuente, The Black Ball (PR: 10) (E)
11. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 7) (-4)
12. Skyler Gisondo, Primetime (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Riz Ahmed, Digger (PR: 11) (-2)
14. Channing Tatum, Josephine (PR: 12) (-2)
15. Tom Holland, The Odyssey (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Mark Ruffalo, Being Heumann
Daniel Kaluuya, Misty Green
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Debut (PR: 2) (E)
3. Obsession (PR: 3) (E)
4. Fjord (PR: 4) (E)
5. Club Kid (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Behemoth! (PR: 6) (E)
7. Tender Loving Care (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Digger (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Possible Love (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Elsinore (PR: 5) (-5)
Dropped Out:
The Drama
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Invite (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Odyssey (PR: 3) (E)
4. All of a Sudden (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Project Hail Mary (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Ink (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Primetime (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The Social Reckoning (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 10) (E)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Black Ball (PR: 1) (E)
2. All of a Sudden (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Fjord (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Possible Love (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Minotaur (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Fatherland (PR: 6) (E)
7. Rose (PR: 7) (E)
8. Woman Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Coward (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Silent Friend (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Mimesis
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wildwood (PR: 1) (E)
2. Toy Story 5 (PR: 2) (E)
3. Ray Gunn (PR: 3) (E)
4. Tangles (PR: 4) (E)
5. Iron Boy (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Hoppers (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Forgotten Island (PR: 6) (-1)
8. In Waves (PR: 8) (E)
9. Shaun the Sheep: The Beast of Mossy Bottom (PR: 9) (E)
10. Coyote vs. Acme (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Hexed
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. NAZA (PR: 3) (+2)
2. You Can See Everything (PR: Not Ranked)
3. Once Upon a Time in Harlem (PR: 1) (-2)
4. American Doctor (PR: 2) (-2)
5. One in a Million (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. 14th (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Rehearsals for a Revolution (PR: 10) (+3)
8. To Hold a Mountain (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Nuisance Bear (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Closure (PR: 7) (-3)
Dropped Out:
The History of Concrete
Best Casting
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 2) (+1)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Debut (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Being Heumann (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Michael (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Digger (PR: 7) (E)
8. All of a Sudden (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Fjord (PR: 4) (-5)
10. Dune: Part Three (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
The Invite
Elsinore
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 2) (E)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 4) (+1)
4. The Black Ball (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Digger (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Fatherland (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Werwulf (PR: 7) (E)
8. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 8) (E)
9. Behemoth! (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Disclosure Day (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sense and Sensbility (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Werwulf (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Michael (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (E)
7. Wuthering Heights (PR: 9) (+2)
8. The Devil Wears Prada 2 (PR: 8) (E)
9. I Love Boosters (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Mother Mary (PR: 10) (E)
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 4) (+1)
4. The Debut (PR: Not Ranked)
5. Behemoth! (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Invite (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Digger (PR: 9) (E)
10. You Can See Everything (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Ink
Fjord
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Werwulf (PR: 1) (E)
2. Digger (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Odyssey (PR: 6) (+3)
4. Wicker (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Michael (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Clayface (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (E)
8. Rose (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Elsinore (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Black Ball (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Obsession
Is God Is
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Behemoth! (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Disclosure Day (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 7) (+1)
7. The Debut (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Digger (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Werwulf (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Social Reckoning
Wildwood
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “This City May Have Chewed Me Up (But It Hasn’t Spit Me Out)” from The Debut (PR: 4) (+3)
2. “La Nieve” from The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. “I Knew It, I Knew You” from Toy Story 5 (PR: 1) (-2)
4. “By Any Means” from By Any Means (PR: 3) (-1)
5. “How to Write a Song (Without You)” from Power Ballad (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Let Me Sell You a Dream” from Musk (PR: Not Ranked)
7. “When I’m Home” from The Odyssey (PR: 6) (-1)
8. “Runway” from The Devil Wears Prada 2 (PR: 7) (-1)
9. “Chains of Love” from Wuthering Heights (PR: 9) (E)
10. “Save the Day” from Hoppers (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
TBD from Wildwood
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 2) (E)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Black Ball (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Backrooms (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Werwulf (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Digger (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 8) (E)
9. Wuthering Heights (PR: 9) (E)
10. Wild Horse Nine (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 2) (E)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Black Ball (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Behemoth! (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Michael (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Disclosure Day (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Werwulf (PR: 10) (+2)
9. The Debut (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Digger (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Whalefall
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Three (PR: 1) (E)
2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Odyssey (PR: 3) (E)
4. Whalefall (PR: 4) (E)
5. Spider-Man: Brand New Day (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Avengers: Doomsday (PR: 7) (+1)
7. The Sheep Detectives (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Godzilla Minus Zero (PR: 6) (-2)
9. The End of Oak Street (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Disclosure Day (PR: 10) (E)
That works out to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:
16 Nominations
The Odyssey
13 Nominations
The Black Ball
9 Nominations
Project Hail Mary
8 Nominations
The Debut
6 Nominations
The Invite, Wild Horse Nine
5 Nominations
All of a Sudden, Dune: Part Three
4 Nominations
Behemoth!
3 Nominations
Obsession
2 Nominations
Digger, Fjord, Michael, Toy Story 5, Werwulf
1 Nomination
American Doctor, Backrooms, Being Heumann, By Any Means, Club Kid, Disclosure Day, Ink, Elsinore, Iron Boy, Minotaur, NAZA, Once Upon a Time in Harlem, One in a Million, Possible Love, Power Ballad, Primetime, Ray Gunn, Rose, Sense and Sensibility, Spider-Man Brand New Day, Tangles, Whalefall, Wicker, Wildwood, You Can See Everything
Two years after No Other Land won Best Documentary Feature at the Oscars, filmmakers Yuval Abraham and Rachel Szor could be in contention again for NAZA. Shot in Tel Aviv during the ongoing Gaza war, it premiered in Venice and will also play the New York Film Festival.
While I normally don’t mention the length of standing ovations at screenings, it’s worth noting that NAZA appears to have the longest one in Venice’s history at 24 minutes. Critical acclaim is high with 100% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 96 Metacritic. NAZA joins Once Upon a Time in Harlem, American Doctor, and You Can See Everything as the likeliest docs to make the Academy’s cut and a threat to win. I’ll also note that the doc branch is capable of shocking omissions in past years but NAZA seems like a title that won’t miss. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Does Musk smell like an Oscar contender? The documentary is bound to be one of the higher profile genre entries of 2026 with Alex Gibney directing a near four hour look at Elon Musk, the world’s richest man and a lightning rod for controversy.
It premiered at the Venice Film Festival over the weekend and was a bit overshadowed by the unexpected debut of You Can See Everything, another buzzy doc that made a splash at Telluride. Rotten Tomatoes is at 100% with 77 on Metacritic.
Gibney’s Taxi to the Dark Side was the Documentary Feature victor in 2007 and he has helmed numerous acclaimed flicks on the big and small screen. Musk could definitely get in the five nominated docs, but I think it’s less likely than others like Once Upon a Time in Harlem and the aforementioned Everything.
Musk could miss Documentary Feature and still get into Original Song where David Byrne has written and sung the track “Let Me Sell You a Dream”. The former Talking Heads frontman is an Academy recipient for his score to 1987’s The Last Emperor and was nominated four years back in Original Song for “This Is a Life” from Everything Everywhere All at Once. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
The Telluride Film Festival was abuzz with word that a nearly three hour documentary screening would be unveiled yesterday from A24. That doc turned out to be You Can See Everything from Canadian comedian Nathan Fielder and Lance Oppenheim (also doing the fest circuit for directing Primetime).
In Everything, the filmmakers are granted access to Theranos founder Elizabeth Holmes in the weeks before she begins serving an 11 year prison sentence for fraud. While Holmes’s story and legal activity has been covered in an HBO doc and in the acclaimed limited series The Dropout with Amanda Seyfried, Everything received kudos at Telluride. It promises to be one of the highest profile docs of 2026 when it comes out in October.
The early WOM and anticipated wide exposure could certainly mean it grabs one of the five slots in Best Documentary Feature. I will warn that this branch of the Academy can be unpredictable. I’m not sure Everything is ahead of my current frontrunner Once Upon a Time in Harlem and perhaps not others like American Doctor. I am sure that it has one of the creepiest teasers I’ve witnessed that isn’t a horror flick. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
