In the eight decades of Oscar history, we have seen the Supporting Actor category honor actors from the same picture about one-fifth of the time. It’s a fairly rare occurrence, but it’s been especially so as of late. It’s been 26 years since the Academy last did so and that serves as the longest gap by a lot. 2017 could change that.
Before we get to that, a little history lesson…
The first multiple Supporting Actor nominees happened in 1939 when Harry Carey and Claude Rains were nominated for Mr. Smith Goes to Washington.
It was 14 years before it happened again with 1953’s Shane bestowing nods for Jack Palance and Brandon deWilde. The following year gave us our first three actor nominations when Lee J. Cobb, Karl Malden, and Rod Steiger all had their names up for On the Waterfront. The 1950s would do this twice more – in 1957’s Peyton Place for Arthur Kennedy and Russ Tamblyn and 1959’s Anatomy of a Murder for Arthur O’Connell and George C. Scott.
1961 would bring Scott another nod for The Hustler, along with Jackie Gleason. 1967’s Bonnie and Clyde nominated both Gene Hackman and Michael J. Pollard.
1971 was the first year when one of the multiple picture nominees actually won. Ben Johnson emerged victorious for The Last Picture Show, while costar Jeff Bridges was nominated.
The Godfather saga would bestow six nominations among its two classic films. The 1972 original nominated James Caan, Robert Duvall, and Al Pacino. The 1974 sequel had Robert De Niro winning the statue, along with the nominated Michael V. Gazzo and Lee Strasberg. 1976’s Rocky nominated both Mick (Burgess Meredith) and Paulie (Burt Young) while Jason Robards won for 1977’s Julia with Maximillian Schell getting a nod.
Timothy Hutton would win for Ordinary People in 1980 with costar Judd Hirsch nominated. Jack Nicholson won for 1983’s Terms of Endearment with John Lithgow getting recognition. 1986’s Platoon was granted two nominees – Willem Dafoe and Tom Berenger.
And in 1991 – Harvey Keitel and Ben Kingsley were nominated for Bugsy.
That is the 16th and final time this has happened.
As mentioned, this year could potentially change that and there’s a surprising four ways for it to happen.
The least likely of the four scenarios in my opinion would be Jason Mitchell or Garrett Hedlund for Mudbound. Perhaps Mitchell could sneak in, but even that’s a long shot and the chances of both getting in seems non-existent.
The other three scenarios are all plausible. There’s Michael Shannon and Richard Jenkins for The Shape of Water. We have Armie Hammer and Michael Stuhlbarg for Call Me by Your Name. It wouldn’t shock me for either to occur, but maybe the best chance is Sam Rockwell (a lock for a nod) and Woody Harrelson (less so) for Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri.
It’s been a quarter century since two actors from the same film heard the names called in Supporting Actor. Will 2017 change that?
Greetings all as my Oscar predictions return! My Thursday predictions will now become my Monday predictions as I missed last Thursday due to vacation. The biggest development of the last 11 days was that Steven Spielberg’s The Post screened last night. While it’s under strict embargo still from reviews, word leaking out currently is pretty encouraging and it’s bolstered both the picture and Meryl Streep’s chances for Oscar recognition (and possibly its director and Tom Hanks as well). It’s enough that I’ve got it going from 1 predicted nod a couple weeks ago to 4 today. A word of caution: with the embargo in place, I would describe my current Post placements as fluid.
You can peruse all the activity below and I’ll be back next Monday with fresh predictions!
BestPicture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. TheShapeofWater (PR: 2)
3. DarkestHour (PR: 3)
4. ThreeBillboardsOutsideEbbing, Missouri (PR: 4)
5. Mudbound (PR: 6)
6. CallMebyYourName (PR: 5)
7. LadyBird (PR: 7)
8. The Post (PR: 9)
9. TheFloridaProject (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
10. GetOut (PR: 11)
11. I, Tonya (PR: 10)
12. PhantomThread (PR: 13)
13. BladeRunner2049 (PR: 12)
14. Detroit (PR: 14)
15. BattleoftheSexes (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
LastFlagFlying
BestDirector
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. Guillermo del Toro, TheShapeofWater (PR: 2)
3. Joe Wright, DarkestHour (PR: 3)
4. Martin McDonagh, ThreeBillboardsOutsideEbbing, Missouri (PR: 4)
2. Sam Rockwell, ThreeBillboardsOutsideEbbing, Missouri (PR: 2)
3. Armie Hammer, CallMebyYourName (PR: 3)
4. Michael Shannon, TheShapeofWater (PR: 6)
5. Mark Rylance, Dunkirk (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Michael Stuhlbarg, CallMebyYourName (PR: 5)
7. Richard Jenkins, TheShapeofWater (PR: 8)
8. Woody Harrelson, ThreeBillboardsOutsideEbbing, Missouri (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Jason Mitchell, Mudbound (PR: 7)
10. Steve Carell, BattleoftheSexes (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Ben Mendelsohn, DarkestHour
Will Poulter, Detroit
BestSupportingActress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Allison Janney, I, Tonya (PR: 1)
2. Laurie Metcalf, LadyBird (PR: 2)
3. Melissa Leo, Novitiate (PR: 3)
4. Mary J. Blige, Mudbound (PR: 4)
5. Kristin Scott Thomas, DarkestHour (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Hong Chau, Downsizing (PR: 5)
7. Holly Hunter, TheBigSick (PR: 7)
8. Julianne Moore, Wonderstruck (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Claire Foy, Breathe (PR: 8)
10. Octavia Spencer, TheShapeofWater (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Bria Vinaite, TheFloridaProject
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 1)
2. Mudbound (PR: 2)
3. Molly’s Game (PR: 3)
4. The Disaster Artist (PR: 6)
5. Wonderstruck (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Last Flag Flying (PR: 5)
7. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 7)
8. The Beguiled (PR: 8)
9. Stronger (PR: 9)
10. Wonder (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Blade Runner 2049
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 1)
2. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)
3. Lady Bird (PR: 3)
4. Get Out (PR: 5)
5. Darkest Hour (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Florida Project (PR: 4)
7. The Big Sick (PR: 7)
8. The Post (PR: 9)
9. I, Tonya (PR: 8)
10. Phantom Thread (PR: 10)
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Coco (PR: 1)
2. The Breadwinner (PR: 2)
3. Loving Vincent (PR: 3)
4. Birdboy: The Forgotten Children (PR: 4)
5. Cars 3 (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. The LEGO Batman Movie (PR: 7)
7. Ferdinand (PR: 5)
8. Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie (PR: 9)
9. The Girl Without Hands (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Despicable Me 3 (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
The Big Bad Fox and Other Tales
Best Foreign Language Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. BPM (Beats Per Minute) (PR: 1)
2. In the Fade (PR: 2)
3. First, They Killed My Father (PR: 4)
4. The Square (PR: 5)
5. Foxtrot (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. A Fantastic Woman (PR: 8)
7. Loveless (PR: 3)
8. Happy End (PR: 7)
9. The Divine Order (PR: 10)
10. Tom of Finland (PR: 9)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Cries from Syria (PR: 1)
2. Jane (PR: 2)
3. Icarus (PR: 4)
4. City of Ghosts (PR: 3)
5. Strong Island (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Kedi (PR: 8)
7. Risk (PR: 5)
8. Joan Didion: The Center Will Not Hold (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Long Strange Trip (PR: 9)
10. Faces Places (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Human Flow
Step
One of Us
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)
3. Darkest Hour (PR: 3)
4. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 4)
5. The Post (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Lady Bird (PR: Not Ranked)
7. I, Tonya (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 5)
9. Detroit (PR: 10)
10. Get Out (PR: 6)
Dropped Out:
Mudbound
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Call Me by Your Name
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (PR: 2)
2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 1)
3. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)
4. Darkest Hour (PR: 4)
5. Wonderstruck (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Post (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Phantom Thread (PR: 6)
8. Mudbound (PR: 9)
9. Detroit (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Wonder Wheel
mother!
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Shape of Water (PR: 1)
2. Dunkirk (PR: 5)
3. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 3)
4. Phantom Thread (PR: 4)
5. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Darkest Hour (PR: 2)
7. Wonderstruck (PR: 8)
8. The Post (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The Greatest Showman (PR: 9)
10. Wonder Wheel (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Phantom Thread (PR: 1)
2. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 2)
3. The Beguiled (PR: 5)
4. Darkest Hour (PR: 3)
5. The Greatest Showman (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Shape of Water (PR: Not Ranked)
7. The Post (PR: 9)
8. Wonder Wheel (PR: 6)
9. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 7)
10. Murder on the Orient Express (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Blade Runner 2049
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Darkest Hour (PR: 1)
2. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)
3. Phantom Thread (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
4. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 3)
5. The Greatest Showman (PR: 4)
6. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (PR: 7)
7. I, Tonya (PR: 8)
8. It (PR: 9)
9. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 6)
10. Thor: Ragnarok (PR: 10)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 1)
2. The Shape of Water (PR: 4)
3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 3)
4. War for the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2)
5. Dunkirk (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Spider-Man: Homecoming (PR: 7)
7. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 9)
8. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (PR: 6)
9. Wonder Woman (PR: 8)
10. Thor: Ragnarok (PR: 10)
Best Sound Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)
3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 3)
4. The Shape of Water (PR: 4)
5. Transformers: The Last Knight (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Baby Driver (PR: 6)
7. War for the Planet of the Apes (PR: 9)
8. Spider-Man: Homecoming (PR: 10)
9. Coco (PR: 7)
10. Wonder Woman (PR: 8)
Best Sound Mixing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)
3. Baby Driver (PR: 4)
4. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 3)
5. The Greatest Showman (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Shape of Water (PR: 6)
7. Detroit (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Transformers: The Last Knight (PR: 8)
9. War for the Planet of the Apes (PR: 10)
10. Darkest Hour (PR: 7)
Dropped Out:
Coco
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Shape of Water (PR: 1)
2. Darkest Hour (PR: 3)
3. Dunkirk (PR: 2)
4. Wonderstruck (PR: 4)
5. The Post (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 5)
7. Phantom Thread (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 6)
9. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 7)
10. Detroit (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Coco
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Stand Up for Something” from Marshall (PR: 1)
2. “Evermore” from Beauty and the Beast (PR: 4)
3. “It Ain’t Fair” from Detroit (PR: 7)
4. “I Don’t Wanna Live Forever” from Fifty Shades Darker (PR: 3)
5. “Prayers for this World” from Cries from Syria (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Remember Me” from Coco (PR: 2)
7. “Come Alive” from The Greatest Showman (PR: 6)
8. “Truth to Power” from An Inconvenient Sequel (PR: Not Ranked)
9. “The Promise” from The Promise (PR: 8)
10. “Jump” from Step (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
“If I Dare” from Battle of the Sexes
“This is Me” from The Greatest Showman
And that leaves us with the following breakdown of nominations:
12 Nominations
The Shape of Water
10 Nominations
Dunkirk, Darkest Hour
6 Nominations
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
5 Nominations
Blade Runner 2049
4 Nominations
Call Me by Your Name, Mudbound, Lady Bird, The Post, Phantom Thread
3 Nominations
Wonderstruck, Beauty and the Beast, Star Wars: The Last Jedi
2 Nominations
The Florida Project, I, Tonya, Cries from Syria, The Greatest Showman,
1 Nomination
Stronger, Breathe, Novitiate, Molly’s Game, The Disaster Artist, Get Out, Coco, The Breadwinner, Loving Vincent, Birdboy: The Forgotten Children, Cars 3, BPM (Beats Per Minute), In the Fade, First, They Killed My Father, The Square, Foxtrot, Jane, Icarus, Strong Island, The Beguiled, War for the Planet of the Apes, Transformers: The Last Knight, Baby Driver, Marshall, Detroit, Fifty Shades Darker.
We’ll see you next Monday with updated projections!
The latest iteration of the PlanetoftheApes saga that began nearly a half century ago concludes on a major franchise high note. What Rupert Wyatt began in satisfying fashion with 2011’s RiseofthePlanetoftheApes and Matt Reeves continued with success in 2014’s DawnofthePlanetoftheApes is elevated even more so with WarforthePlanetoftheApes. Mr. Reeves returns behind the camera with an epic and sorrowful tale of Caesar’s (Andy Serkis) constant battle between his species and the humans remaining to fight them.
The third installment also continues the perfection of the motion capture wizardry that brings the apes to life. It’s been enormously impressive in parts 1 and 2. It’s taken another leap forward in War. That said, we’re grown accustomed to legions of these characters being seen in our blockbusters. A compelling story must follow and it’s present.
When Dawn concluded, Caesar had dispensed of treacherous right-hand ape Koba but knew what was left of the human race’s army would hunt him. War opens two years later with Caesar, his family, and the other apes dwelling in the woods. Their nemesis here is a demented colonel (Woody Harrelson) and his devoted military men. Tragedy strikes and it pits Caesar on a revengeful mission against the Colonel, who isn’t too far removed from the character of Kurtz in ApocalypseNow. Harrelson is a great villain here with his own backstory in this dystopian world.
War introduces us to some new characters – both real and generated. There’s a mute young girl (Amiah Miller) who joins the apes on their joinrney. Series aficionados will reocognize her signifance quickly. Steve Zahn also brilliantly brings “Bad Ape” to life, a former zoo inhabitant who provides some much needed comic relief to the proceedings.
Yet this trilogy has focused mostly on Caesar and Serkis’s absolutely astonishing portrayal of him. The effects team goes even further in making him seem so very real. The writing and the actor’s commitment succeed in making his arch very emotional.
WarforthePlanetoftheApes is the best of the three and the other two were both quite solid. This is the end of this particular Apes chapter, but Reeves and his team leave us with the possibility of more and wanting it.
We’ve arrived at my second round of weekly Oscar predictions that will come your way every Thursday on the blog! Since last week, a number of titles have screened at the Toronto Film Festival, in addition to the Venice and Telluride fests that preceded it.
As I did last week, I will list my current predicted nominees in the eight biggest races with a total of 25 possibilities for Best Picture and 15 in the others. Beginning today, you’ll be able to see the fluctuation in rankings from last week to the current one and see what and who has joined and dropped out. Once again, rankings reflect who and what I think will be nominated and not necessarily win.
Let’s get to it!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. The Post (PR: 2)
3. Darkest Hour (PR: 3)
4. The Shape of Water (PR: 7)
5. Mudbound (PR: 4)
6. Battle of the Sexes (PR: 6)
7. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 5)
8. Last Flag Flying (PR: 10)
9. The Greatest Showman (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
10. Phantom Thread (PR: 11)
11. Downsizing (PR: 8)
12. Goodbye Christopher Robin (PR: 16)
13. Wonder Wheel (PR: 12)
14. Detroit (PR: 14)
15. mother! (PR: 13)
16. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 15)
17. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 18)
18. Wonderstruck (PR: 17)
19. Coco (PR: 19)
20. Get Out (PR: 20)
21. Lady Bird (PR: 22)
22. Wind River (PR: 21)
23. The Florida Project (PR: Not Ranked)
24. I, Tonya (PR: Not Ranked)
25. Wonder Woman (PR: 23)
Dropped Out:
Molly’s Game
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. Steven Spielberg, The Post (PR: 2)
3. Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water (PR: 6)
4. Joe Wright, Darkest Hour (PR: 4)
5. Dee Rees, Mudbound (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Luca Guadagnino, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 5)
7. Jonathan Dayton and Valerie Faris, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 7)
8. Denis Villeneuve, Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 8)
9. Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread (PR: 10)
10. Richard Linklater, Last Flag Flying (PR: 12)
11. Kathryn Bigelow, Detroit (PR: 11)
12. Alexander Payne, Downsizing (PR: 9)
13. Michael Gracey, The Greatest Showman (PR: 14)
14. Darren Aronofsky, mother! (PR: 13)
15. Woody Allen, Wonder Wheel (PR: 15)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour (PR: 1)
2. Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread (PR: 2)
3. Hugh Jackman, The Greatest Showman (PR: 3)
4. Tom Hanks, The Post (PR: 4)
5. Jake Gyllenhaal, Stronger (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joaquin Phoenix, You Were Never Really Here (PR: 5)
7. Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq. (PR: 15)
8. Steve Carell, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 6)
9. Domhnall Gleeson, Goodbye Christopher Robin (PR: 7)
10. Timothee Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 9)
11. Donald Sutherland, The Leisure Seeker (PR: 12)
12. Andrew Garfield, Breathe (PR: 11)
13. Bryan Cranston, Last Flag Flying (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Matt Damon, Downsizing (PR: 10)
15. Liam Neeson, Mark Felt: The Man Who Brought Down the White House (PR: 13)
Dropped Out:
Jeremy Renner, Wind River
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 1)
2. Meryl Streep, The Post (PR: 2)
3. Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 5)
4. Kate Winslet, Wonder Wheel (PR: 4)
5. Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game (PR: 3)
7. Margot Robbie, I, Tonya (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Judi Dench, Victoria and Abdul (PR: 10)
9. Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird (PR: 9)
10. Annette Bening, Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool (PR: 7)
11. Daniela Vega, A Fantastic Woman (PR: 8)
12. Jennifer Lawrence, mother! (PR: 13)
13. Diane Kruger, In the Fade (PR: 12)
14. Jane Fonda, Our Souls at Night (PR: 15)
15. Carey Mulligan, Mudbound (PR: 11)
Dropped Out:
Isabelle Huppert, Happy End
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project (PR: 1)
2. Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 4)
3. Armie Hammer, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 3)
4. Ben Mendelsohn, Darkest Hour (PR: 2)
5. Michael Shannon, The Shape of Water (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jason Mitchell, Mudbound (PR: 8)
7. Mark Rylance, Dunkirk (PR: 5)
8. Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 6)
9. Laurence Fishburne, Last Flag Flying (PR: 9)
10. James Franco, The Disaster Artist (PR: 10)
11. Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Patrick Stewart, Logan (PR: 12)
13. Will Poulter, Detroit (PR: 14)
14. Jamie Bell, Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Harrison Ford, Blade Runner 2049 (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Idris Elba, Molly’s Game
Woody Harrelson, The Glass Castle
Christoph Waltz, Downsizing
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Melissa Leo, Novitiate (PR: 1)
2. Hong Chau, Downsizing (PR: 2)
3. Allison Janney, I, Tonya (PR: Not Ranked)
4. Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water (PR: 4)
5. Kristin Scott Thomas, Darkest Hour (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Margot Robbie, Goodbye Christopher Robin (PR: 6)
7. Mary J. Blige, Mudbound (PR: 5)
8. Michelle Pfeiffer, mother! (PR: 7)
9. Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird (PR: 11)
10. Julianne Moore, Suburbicon (PR: 13)
11. Holly Hunter, The Big Sick (PR: 14)
12. Brooklyn Prince, The Florida Project (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Kirsten Dunst, The Beguiled (PR: 9)
14. Tatiana Maslany, Stronger (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Millicent Simmonds, Wonderstruck (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Michelle Williams, The Greatest Showman
Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread
Juno Temple, Wonder Wheel
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Post (PR: 1)
2. Mudbound (PR: 2)
3. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 3)
4. Last Flag Flying (PR: 4)
5. Wonderstruck (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Molly’s Game (PR: 5)
7. Stronger (PR: 12)
8. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 8)
9. The Beguiled (PR: 9)
10. You Were Never Really Here (PR: 7)
11. The Disaster Artist (PR: 10)
12. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 11)
13. Wonder (PR: 13)
14. My Cousin Rachel (PR: 14)
15. Logan (PR: 15)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Darkest Hour (PR: 1)
2. Battle of the Sexes (PR: 2)
3. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)
4. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 6)
5. Wonder Wheel (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Get Out (PR: 7)
7. Phantom Thread (PR: 8)
8. Dunkirk (PR: 9)
9. Downsizing (PR: 5)
10. Goodbye Christopher Robin (PR: 15)
11. Lady Bird (PR: 11)
12. The Big Sick (PR: 10)
13. mother! (PR: 13)
14. The Greatest Showman (PR: 14)
15. The Florida Project (PR: 12)
And there you have it, folks! Expect more Oscar Watch posts to come your way and my next full predictions next Thursday…
As you may have noticed on the blog over the last few days, there’s been an influx of Oscar Watch posts up due to the Telluride and Venice Film Festivals shedding light on some contenders.
Today begins my weekly column covering the big six races (Picture, Director, the four acting categories, and both screenplay categories). It will be updated every Thursday up until nominations are announced next year (with a final predictions posts the Monday before they are revealed).
Here’s how it works: I’m listing my current predictions in each race, with 25 selections for Best Picture and 15 in the others. When we get a bit further down the road, the predictions will go to 15 Best Picture possibilities and 10 in the rest. I am indeed ranking them, but note that just because I rank something as #1, that doesn’t mean I think it will win. It just means I believe at this time that it has the current best shot at actually getting nominated. Beginning next week, you’ll see how the rankings change and alter from week to week… and change and alter they most certainly will.
So here goes with my first weekly Oscar predictions!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk
2. The Post
3. Darkest Hour
4. Mudbound
5. Call Me by Your Name
6. Battle of the Sexes
7. The Shape of Water
8. Downsizing
9. The Greatest Showman
Other Possibilities:
10. Last Flag Flying
11. Phantom Thread
12. Wonder Wheel
13. mother!
14. Detroit
15. Blade Runner 2049
16. Goodbye Christopher Robin
17. Wonderstruck
18. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
19. Coco
20. Get Out
21. Wind River
22. Lady Bird
23. Wonder Woman
24. Molly’s Game
25. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
2. Steven Spielberg, The Post
3. Dee Rees, Mudbound
4. Joe Wright, Darkest Hour
5. Luca Guadagnino, Call Me by Your Name
Other Possibilities:
6. Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water
7. Jonathan Dayton and Valerie Faris, Battle of the Sexes
8. Denis Villeneuve, Blade Runner 2049
9. Alexander Payne, Downsizing
10. Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread
11. Kathryn Bigelow, Detroit
12. Richard Linklater, Last Flag Flying
13. Darren Aronofsky, mother!
14. Michael Gracey, The Greatest Showman
15. Woody Allen, Wonder Wheel
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
2. Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread
3. Hugh Jackman, The Greatest Showman
4. Tom Hanks, The Post
5. Joaquin Phoenix, You Were Never Really Here
Other Possibilities:
6. Steve Carell, Battle of the Sexes
7. Domhnall Gleeson, Goodbye Christopher Robin
8. Jake Gyllenhaal, Stronger
9. Timothee Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name
10. Matt Damon, Downsizing
11. Andrew Garfield, Breathe
12. Donald Sutherland, The Leisure Seeker
13. Liam Neeson, Mark Felt: The Man Who Brought Down the White House
14. Jeremy Renner, Wind River
15. Denzel Washington, Roman Israel Esq.
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes
2. Meryl Streep, The Post
3. Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game
4. Kate Winslet, Wonder Wheel
5. Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Other Possibilities:
6. Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
7. Annette Bening, Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool
8. Daniela Vega, A Fantastic Woman
9. Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
10. Judi Dench, Victoria and Abdul
11. Carey Mulligan, Mudbound
12. Diane Kruger, In the Fade
13. Jennifer Lawrence, mother!
14. Isabelle Huppert, Happy End
15. Jane Fonda, Our Souls at Night
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
2. Ben Mendelsohn, Darkest Hour
3. Armie Hammer, Call Me by Your Name
4. Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
5. Mark Rylance, Dunkirk
Other Possibilities:
6. Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me by Your Name
7. Michael Shannon, The Shape of Water
8. Jason Mitchell, Mudbound
9. Laurence Fishburne, Last Flag Flying
10. James Franco, The Disaster Artist
11. Idris Elba, Molly’s Game
12. Patrick Stewart, Logan
13. Woody Harrelson, The Glass Castle
14. Will Poulter, Detroit
15. Christoph Waltz, Downsizing
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Melissa Leo, Novitiate
2. Hong Chau, Downsizing
3. Kristin Scott Thomas, Darkest Hour
4. Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water
5. Mary J. Blige, Mudbound
Other Possibilities:
6. Margot Robbie, Goodbye Christopher Robin
7. Michelle Pfeiffer, mother!
8. Michelle Williams, The Greatest Showman
9. Kirsten Dunst, The Beguiled
10. Millicent Simmonds, Wonderstruck
11. Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
12. Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread
13. Julianne Moore, Suburbicon
14. Holly Hunter, The Big Sick
15. Juno Temple, Wonder Wheel
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Post
2. Mudbound
3. Call Me by Your Name
4. Last Flag Flying
5. Molly’s Game
Other Possibilities:
6. Wonderstruck
7. You Were Never Really Here
8. Victoria and Abdul
9. The Beguiled
10. The Disaster Artist
11. Blade Runner 2049
12. Stronger
13. Wonder
14. My Cousin Rachel
15. Logan
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Darkest Hour
2. Battle of the Sexes
3. The Shape of Water
4. Wonder Wheel
5. Downsizing
Other Possibilities:
6. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
7. Get Out
8. Phantom Thread
9. Dunkirk
10. The Big Sick
11. Lady Bird
12. The Florida Project
13. mother!
14. The Greatest Showman
15. Goodbye Christopher Robin
And there you have it! My first ranked predictions for the Oscar race. Next Thursday, I’ll have the updated projections…
Another day, another entry in the Best Actress derby as Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri has premiered at the Venice Film Festival. This time it’s Frances McDormand, starring in Martin McDonagh’s pic about a mother going to great lengths to find her daughter’s killers.
Early reviews suggest a strong and nuanced performance from McDormand, who won Best Actress 21 years ago for Fargo. She’s also been nominated three other times in Supporting for 1988’s Mississippi Burning, 2000’s Almost Famous, and 2005’s North Country. While Missouri could feasibly nab McDormand her fifth nod, it’s no slam dunk and that’s due to competition that has been discussed on the blog all weekend.
An interesting nugget from the Venice buzz surrounds Sam Rockwell, whose performance seems to be generating more word-of-mouth than Woody Harrelson’s in Supporting Actor. If Rockwell manages to land a nomination, it would be his first and looked at as long overdue by many.
Bloggers Note (08/31) – UPDATE: It has been confirmed that Steve Carell will be campaigned for in Lead Actor not Supporting. Therefore, he comes out and James Franco goes in.
Continuing on with my earliest 2017 Oscar predictions, we move to Best Supporting Actor. If you missed my post on Supporting Actress, you can find it here:
In 2014, 2015, and 2016 – my initial projections yielded two of the eventual five nominees. For the last two years, the first predictions have named the winner (Mark Rylance for Bridge of Spies, Mahershala Ali in Moonlight).
Let’s begin with some confusion – there are three potential nominees where it’s uncertain as to whether they’ll be campaigned for in Lead Actor or this race. They are: Steve Carell (Battle of the Sexes), Willem Dafoe (The Florida Project), and James Franco (The Disaster Artist). The Best Actor race already looks incredibly competitive this year, so I’m currently operating on the assumption that all 3 will find themselves campaigned for here.
There are no sure things yet in this category, but festival season could easily change that. Here is my first blush take:
TODD’S FIRST PREDICTIONS – BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
Laurence Fishburne, Last Flag Flying
James Franco, TheDisasterArtist
Armie Hammer, Call Me by Your Name
Mark Rylance, Dunkirk
Other Possibilities:
Idris Elba, Molly’s Game
Richard Graham, Phantom Thread
Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Ed Harris, mother!
Garrett Hedlund, Mudbound
Ben Mendelsohn, Darkest Hour
Jason Mitchell, Mudbound
Michael Stuhlbarg, The Papers
Christoph Waltz, Downsizing
Predictions for the Lead Acting Races are on the way…
Some hoped for summer counter programming is attempted next weekend when The Glass Castle hits theaters. The family drama is based on a 2005 bestseller by Jeannette Walls that sold nearly 3 million copies. Castle reunites director Destin Daniel Cretton with his Short Term 12 lead Brie Larson. Costars include Woody Harrelson, Naomi Watts, and Sarah Snook.
Based on its source material’s popularity, the film could certainly exceed my rather low expectations. That said, the middle of August is a rather strange time to release a movie like this one as it would seem more suited for autumn. Larson and Harrelson have certainly been visible recently, with the former’s Oscar win in Room and costarring in Kong: Skull Island and the latter being the human headliner in War for the Planet of the Apes.
A theater count could also shed some light on its potential, but I don’t have a firm one yet (Box Office Mojo has it listed at 1400 right now, which is pretty low). I’ll say it manages between $3-$5 million in its opening weekend.
The Glass Castle opening weekend prediction: $4.2 million
For my Annabelle: Creation prediction, click here:
Arriving as one of the most critically acclaimed blockbusters so far this year, War for the Planet of the Apes hits theaters next weekend. This is third franchise entry of the current reboot of a series that will celebrate its fiftieth anniversary next year. Matt Reeves, who made 2014 predecessor Dawn of the Planet of the Apes, is back directing with Andy Serkis bringing back his innovative motion capture work as Caesar. Woody Harrelson is our head human with Steve Zahn and Judy Greer among other ape characters.
20th Century Fox wasn’t shy about early screenings for critics and the result is a 95% current Rotten Tomatoes score, topping 2011’s Rise of the Planet of the Apes (81%) and Dawn (90%). That should help scare off potential franchise fatigue in a summer that has seen plenty of it (including Pirates of the Caribbean and Transformers).
Rise debuted six summers ago to $54 million and an eventual $176 million overall domestic gross. Three years later, Dawn reached higher with a $72 million premiere and $208 million total stateside. War stands a fair chance at posting the best opening yet and it almost certainly will outpace Rise.
I’m predicting this third helping of this well-regarded franchise will end up just below what Dawn rose to out of the gate for an opening in the mid 60s.
War for the Planet of the Apes opening weekend prediction: $63.4 million
The third installment of the current iteration of the nearly 50-year-old franchise War of the Planet of the Apes doesn’t open for two and a half weeks. Yet 20th Century Fox felt fit to lift its review embargo quite early and for good reason.
War is receiving some of the best reviews of a series that already garnered considerable acclaim and box office success. The film stands at 95% on Rotten Tomatoes, outpacing the 81% of 2011’s Rise of the Planet of the Apes and 90% for 2014’s Dawn of the Planet of the Apes. Its solid worth of mouth should make War a potent force at multiplexes on July 14th.
Which brings us to whether or not the picture could swing into the minds of Academy voters. In one sense – it’s seemingly inevitable. Both Rise and Dawn were nominated for Best Visual Effects Oscars and it would be very surprising for War not to follow suit. When it comes to other categories – probably not. Even though this threequel is getting the most fawning notices from several critics of the trio thus far, a Picture nomination seems unlikely.
Finally, I would expect some chatter for Andy Serkis and his motion capture work as Caesar. Yet an acting nomination for him also probably isn’t the cards. Even with its considerable reaction so far, it appears Visual Effects will be War‘s sole nomination.
All My Life... I Wanted To Be A Blogster 