Oscar Predictions: Anselm

Acclaimed German filmmaker Wim Wenders could have two bites at the Oscar apple in 2023. His fictional work Perfect Days is the Japanese entry for Best International Feature Film and it stands an excellent shot at making the eventual quintet.

The other possibility lies in the Documentary Feature race with Anselm. A 3D doc focused on painter and sculptor Anselm Kiefer, it premiered at the Cannes Film Festival earlier this year. It is scheduled for a limited stateside release on December 8th. Reviews thus far are mostly complimentary with an 89% Rotten Tomatoes meter.

However, I’m not convinced they’re quite sturdy enough. Anselm is a question mark in my view to even make the shortlist for inclusion. Lucky for its director, he has another movie in the mix with better odds. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Venice Enriches Poor Things

The 80th Venice Film Festival has signed off and the Grand Jury’s verdict has honored what’s expected to be a major awards player. From 2017-2020, the four films that took the Golden Lion (the fest’s top prize) went onto receive Best Picture nominations at the Oscars: The Shape of Water (which won), Roma, Joker, and Nomadland (another victor). 2021 French pic Happening and 2022’s documentary All the Beauty and the Bloodshed bucked the trend.

Yet I would suspect the correlation between Lion and BP nominee returns in 2023 as Yorgos Lanthimos’s Poor Things is the Lion recipient. Based on reaction from Italy, Things established itself as a major contender across many categories and this assists in cementing that. Expect to read lots about this movie in my prediction posts in the weeks and months ahead.

Venice likes to spread the wealth around. Poor Things didn’t take the directing or screenplay categories or name Emma Stone as Best Actress. Instead that statue went to Cailee Spaeny as Elvis’s young bride Priscilla in Sofia Coppola’s biopic. This does nothing but help Spaeney’s chances in what appears to be an already crowded Actress derby.

Peter Sarsgard is your Best Actor for Michael Franco’s Memory (he and Jessica Chastain are drawing raves for their work). Its distributor would need to mount a shrewd campaign for Academy voters to take notice.

The fest’s runner-up trophy (the Grand Jury Prize) went to Ryusuke Hamaguchi’s Evil Does Not Exist. Japan recently opted to select Perfect Days from Wim Wenders as their International Feature Film hopeful. Best Screenplay went to El Conde from Pablo Larrain, which will likely be Chile’s best best for IFF inclusion.

Poor Things was the odds on favorite for the Lion as Venice rolled along. Look for it to roar as the season continues.

Oscar Predictions: Perfect Days

It’s been nearly 40 years since Paris, Texas from Wim Wenders won the Palme d’Or at the Cannes Film Festival. In 1987, he took the Best Director prize at the fest for Wings of Desire. The German filmmaker is back in the south of France with his drama Perfect Days starring Koji Yakusho, Arisa Nakano, and Tokio Emoto.

There’s another honor that Wenders can add to his Cannes accomplishments. At the awards ceremony for their best in show today, Yakusho was named Best Actor for his work. Reviews in general have been laudatory and it stands at 100% on Rotten Tomatoes.

That said, I’m not sure the critical reaction is effusive enough for it to contend in anything beyond International Feature Film. Japan or German could choose to make it their submission. If they do, it’s got a shot but is far from guaranteed placement. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Pope Francis: A Man of His Word Box Office Prediction

Focus Features and acclaimed filmmaker Wim Wenders team up for the documentary Pope Francis: A Man of His Word next weekend. The pic focuses on the 266th and current pontiff and looks to bring in stateside Catholics for a high per screen average.

It could certainly be rather successful in doing so. The doc is slated to be released on a rather low 350 theaters, but it could certainly achieve the third largest per screen gross behind Deadpool 2 and Avengers: Infinity War.

If this manages to do around what RBG (the documentary about United States Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsberg) did this past weekend on an individual theater basis, that would put Pope at a bit over $2 million.

Pope Francis: A Man of His Word opening weekend prediction: $2.3 million

For my Deadpool 2 prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/05/09/deadpool-2-box-office-prediction/

For my Book Club prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/05/09/book-club-box-office-prediction/

For my Show Dogs prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/05/10/show-dogs-box-office-prediction/