Tag: Where the Crawdads Sing

July 22-24 Box Office Predictions

Blogger’s Update (07/21): On the eve of its premiere, I’m revising my Nope prediction slightly from $49.2M to $53.2M

Jordan Peele’s Nope should make it a hat trick for the director’s titles opening at #1. The only newcomer arriving in multiplexes this weekend, you can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

Nope Box Office Prediction

Most estimates have the supernatural horror tale debuting between $40-60 million. I’m putting it right in the middle of that range, but reserving the right to revise when the buzz and reviews materialize throughout the week. If anything, I could see it moving up.

As for holdovers, Thor: Love and Thunder should drop to second after two weeks. The MCU fourquel experienced a significant tumble in its sophomore frame (more on that below). It should stabilize some in its third outing with a drop in the late 40s to low 50s.

Minions: The Rise of Gru is likely to fall one slot to third while the 4-5 could be interesting. It’s all about the second weekend percentage dip for Where the Crawdads Sing, which had a solid start. I’m projecting mid 40s and that could allow Top Gun: Maverick to narrowly remain in fourth if it only sees a 20% or lower decrease.

Here’s how I see the top five shaking out:

1. Nope

Predicted Gross: $53.2 million

2. Thor: Love and Thunder

Predicted Gross: $22.4 million

3. Minions: The Rise of Gru

Predicted Gross: $17 million

4. Top Gun: Maverick 

Predicted Gross: $9.8 million

5. Where the Crawdads Sing

Predicted Gross: $9.5 million

Box Office Results (July 15-17) 

As anticipated, Thor: Love and Thunder remained atop the charts for a second frame. It was hammered a bit with a precipitous sophomore drop. Grossing $46.6 million (under my $50.2 million estimate), that’s a 68% decline and that’s a touch more than the 67% of MCU predecessor Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness. The ten-day earnings are $233 million.

Minions: The Rise of Gru was runner-up with $26.8 million, rising above my $23.1 million prediction. It’s up to an impressive $263 million with north of $300 million easily in its sights and then some.

Where the Crawdads Sing, based on a huge bestseller, satisfied an older and female crowd with $17.2 million out of the gate. While falling shy of my $18.7 million projection, it’s still a commendable start.

Top Gun: Maverick was fourth with $12.2 million (I said $10.9 million) as the phenomenon has reached $618 million in eight weeks.

Elvis was fifth and I incorrectly had it outside of the top five. The biopic added $8 million to its coffers as it passed the century mark with $106 million.

The animated Paws of Fury: The Legend of Hawk couldn’t find its family audience. Placing sixth with a piddly $6.3 million (well below my $10.5 million take), it got lost in the summer shuffle between Minions and the upcoming DC League of Super-Pets. 

Finally, critically appreciated Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris (on a low number of 980 screens) made a so-so $1.9 million for ninth place. Paris didn’t quite reach my prediction of $2.3 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Oscar Predictions: Where the Crawdads Sing

Delia Owens had a massive bestseller released in 2018 with Where the Crawdads Sing and the North Carolina set mystery’s film adaptation is out on Friday. Directed by Olivia Newman, the cast of mostly relative unknowns includes Daisy Edgar-Jones, Taylor John Smith, and Harris Dickinson.

The review embargo is lifted and critical reaction is mixed at best. With a 38% Rotten Tomatoes rating, it’s safe to assume awards voters will ignore it… with one possible exception.

A big fan of the source material, superstar Taylor Swift composed the track “Carolina” for the soundtrack. If the Academy nominates it in Best Original Song, that practically guarantees Oscar night performances from Swift and Lady Gaga (whose Top Gun: Maverick ballad “Hold My Hand” should be a no brainer for the final five). Gaga’s chances are considerably stronger, but it could be tempting to bring that double star power to the evening’s festivities. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

July 15-17 Box Office Predictions

A trio of new titles populate the mid-July box office though Thor is unlikely to be dethroned in his second frame. We have rural drama Where the Crawdads Sing (based on the bestseller), animated martial arts family comedy Paws of Fury: The Legend of Hank, and the 1950s set dramedy Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

Where the Crawdads Sing Box Office Prediction

Paws of Fury: The Legend of Hank Box Office Prediction

Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris Box Office Prediction

Despite solid reviews thus far, Paris won’t reach the top five and top ten could even be tricky. Part of that is due to its smallish output on roughly 900 screens. My estimate is $2.3 million.

The wild card could be Crawdads. The novel is recent (it was the top selling book of 2019) and has its ardent fans. A debut of over $20 million is possible and it could reach the runner-up position. I’m putting it a bit under that and that should mean third place.

As for Paws, my projection of just over $10 million would put it in a dead heat with Top Gun: Maverick in its 8th weekend. If anything, I could see my guesstimate for the animated pic being revised down.

Thor: Love and Thunder hammered out the third largest opening of 2022 (more on that below). Yet the B+ Cinemascore average (low for the MCU) could mean a hefty sophomore dip. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness had the same grade and tumbled 67%. A low mid 60s drop for the Asgardian king should mean a $50-55 million range.

Minions: The Rise of Gru should remain in second (unless Crawdads impresses) with a third weekend take of between $20-25 million.

Here’s how I envision the top five:

1. Thor: Love and Thunder

Predicted Gross: $50.2 million

2. Minions: The Rise of Gru

Predicted Gross: $23.1 million

3. Where the Crawdads Sing

Predicted Gross: $18.7 million

4. Top Gun: Maverick

Predicted Gross: $10.9 million

5. Paws of Fury: The Legend of Hank

Predicted Gross: $10.5 million

Box Office Results (July 8-10)

Thor: Love and Thunder easily set a personal best among the four Chris Hemsworth led pics with $144.1 million, besting predecessor Ragnarok by over $20 million. While a rock solid start, it’s on the lower end of expectations and I said $155.7 million. Out of the 29 MCU blockbusters, it ranks 12th as far as beginnings.

Minions: The Rise of Gru slipped to second with $46.1 million, just shy of my $48.8 million prediction. The Illumination smash is up to $210 million already.

Top Gun: Maverick was third with $15.5 million and I was more generous with $18.5 million. Tom Cruise’s phenomenon is flying high with $597 million.

Elvis was fourth with $11.1 million (I said $11.6 million) as the biopic has taken in  a sturdy $91 million.

Jurassic World: Dominion rounded out the top five with $8.5 million. I went with $9.1 million. Total is $350 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris Box Office Prediction

Focus Features is hoping that it will be fashionable to check out Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris when it debuts on July 15th. They’re certainly hoping it won’t be a dud. Based on a late 1950s novel by Paul Gallico once adapted into an early 90s TV movie starring Angela Lansbury, Anthony Fabian directs with Phantom Thread Oscar nominee Lesley Manville in the title role. Costars include Isabelle Huppert, Lambert Wilson, Alba Baptista, Lucas Bravo, and Jason Isaacs.

Paris is being unveiled on approximately 900 screens so that will certainly limit the potential. The distributor is banking on a female audience to turn out. That could be a challenge considering Where the Crawdads Sing opens the same day and will be competing for eyeballs.

Its best hope is siphoning off some older moviegoers. With the low theater count, a gross of over $5 million would be pretty impressive. I don’t think it gets there. It might be lucky to reach half of that.

Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris opening weekend prediction: $2.3 million

For my Where the Crawdads Sing prediction, click here:

Where the Crawdads Sing Box Office Prediction

For my Paws of Fury: The Legend of Hank prediction, click here:

Paws of Fury: The Legend of Hank Box Office Prediction

Where the Crawdads Sing Box Office Prediction

The actual actors in Where the Crawdads Sing are not the most recognizable individuals involved in the production. Opening July 15th, the mystery drama is produced by Reese Witherspoon. It features an original song titled “Carolina” by Taylor Swift. Perhaps most important to the box office viability, it’s based on a huge bestseller by Delia Owens.

Directed by Olivia Newman, the cast includes Daisy Edgar-Jones, Taylor John Smith, Harris Dickinson, and David Strathairn. With a budget of just over $40 million, Sony is banking on a sizable female audience that led the source material to eventually sell 12 million copies. In 2019, it sold more copies than any other adult novel.

I will cop to be unfamiliar with the book’s existence. However, I’m not the target demo. With those kind of sales, there should be a built-in crowd tailor-made for the adaptation. Estimates on other sites are as low as $10 million and as high as $25 million. This should at least place in the middle of that range.

Where the Crawdads Sing opening weekend prediction: $18.7 million

For my Paws of Fury: The Legend of Hank prediction, click here:

Paws of Fury: The Legend of Hank Box Office Prediction

For my Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris prediction, click here:

Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris Box Office Prediction