Half a century ago, Walter Hill wrote the screenplay that turned into the Steve McQueen/Ali MacGraw vehicle The Getaway. 40 years back, he was directing Eddie Murphy in his cinematic debut alongside Nick Nolte in 48 Hrs. Now at age 80, the filmmaker is still active behind the camera.
His Western Dead for a Dollar has played in Venice prior to its September 30th stateside release. Two-time Oscar winner Christoph Waltz, Willem Dafoe, and Rachel Brosnahan headline the cast of the late 19th century set pic. Reviews are decent at 78% on Rotten Tomatoes though not strong enough to indicate this will come out and play in any awards category. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
If there’s an actress out there who I would say has almost quietly received four Oscar nominations, it’s Penelope Cruz. She won Supporting Actress in 2008 for Vicky Christina Barcelona, but was nominated the following year in that race for Nine. That’s in addition to two lead nods for 2006’s Volver and last year’s Parallel Mothers.
At the Venice Film Festival, the quadruple contender stars in L’Immensita. The Italian family drama finds Cruz playing the mother of a boy (Luana Giuliani) grappling with gender identity. With her character experiencing mental health issues, this is said to be a juicy role for Emanuele Crialese’s effort.
There’s not many reviews out yet, but the handful of them available has its Rotten Tomatoes score at 100%. It will be interesting to see if Italy selects this as their International Feature Film designee. The Eight Mountains (which premiered at Cannes over the summer) is another possibility. The nation has had two films in the IFF derby over the past decade: 2013’s The Great Beauty (which won) and last year’s The Hand of God. If L’Immensita is the pick, the early word-of-mouth suggests it could make the eventual shortlist. Could Cruz be in the mix for a fifth nod? That’s doubtful though she was able to pull off that Parallel Mothers mention in a crowded 2021 Best Actress field. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Eight years ago, documentarian Laura Poitras won the Oscar for her Edward Snowden centered Citizenfour. Her 2016 follow-up Risk (about WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange) was not the commercial success or awards player that the predecessor was. She looks to be back at the awards scene with All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, which premiered in Venice and is on route to Toronto.
Her latest focuses on Nan Golden, an activist who takes on the opioid epidemic and those accountable for spreading it. If you’ve seen the acclaimed miniseries Dopesick with Michael Keaton, this could be an interesting companion piece.
One of the higher profile docs playing the fall fest circuit, Neon has already acquired the distribution rights. With a Rotten Tomatoes score of 100%, all the logic dictates this should be a contender for Best Documentary Feature. That particular branch of the Academy is unpredictable, but this should be on your radar screen. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
As I always say at the beginning of September on this blog – what a difference a few days makes as Venice is at its midpoint and Telluride occurred over the holiday weekend. The Toronto Film Festival begins Thursday. For the first time, I am thrilled to announce that I will be in attendance and have screenings scheduled for several potential heavy hitters! They include The Fabelmans, The Son, The Whale, Women Talking, The Banshees of Inisherin, Triangle of Sadness, Empire of Light, The Menu, The Wonder, Bros, The Greatest Beer Run Ever, and The Good Nurse.
The fall festivals always cause the fortunes of certain pictures to rise and fall. Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu’s Bardo received mixed reviews out of Lido and it has dropped out of my predictions in Picture, Director, Actor (Daniel Gimenez Cacho), and Supporting Actress (Griselda Sicillani). On the other hand, Sarah Polley’s Women Talking looks to have solidified its position as a BP hopeful while Claire Foy and Jessie Buckley appear to be the two likeliest nominees from its ensemble. Cate Blanchett (Tar) and Brendan Fraser (The Whale) have positioned themselves as surefire nominees and potential winners in the lead acting derbies. Tar itself improved its standing in Picture, Director, and Original Screenplay. Empire of Light is no slam dunk for BP, but it’s in the mix and Olivia Colman seems solid in Actress. The Banshees of Inisherin may be Fox Searchlight’s better hope over Empire. It drew a rapturous Venice reaction today and has vaulted into Picture, Actor, Supporting Actor, and Original Screenplay on my chart. Bones and All, despite some gushing reviews, could face challenges to fit into the BP race. Don’t Worry Darling, due to some middling write-ups, is probably toast.
Of course, we know that festivals are not the end all and be all for final verdicts. For example, Armageddon Time from James Gray seemed DOA after a so-so Cannes bow in the summer. Yet when it played Telluride over the weekend, the buzz was stronger. It’s awards heart is beating again – even if faintly.
This will probably be my last update for two weeks as I’ll be a Canadian for a few days. You can bet you’ll see lots of other individual Oscar prediction posts as well as reviews of the aforementioned pictures. When I update in a couple of weeks, I’m anticipating branching out to all races covering feature films. Until then, you can peruse all the movement (and there is definitely a lot of it) below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Fabelmans (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)
2. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)
3. Babylon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Women Talking (PR: 6) (+2)
5. The Son (PR: 5) (E)
6. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 10) (+4)
7. The Whale (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Tar (PR: 11) (+3)
9. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 18) (+9)
10. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 9) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
11. Empire of Light (PR: 7) (-4)
12. Decision to Leave (PR: 12) (E)
13. She Said (PR: 14) (+1)
14. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 16) (+2)
15. Elvis (PR: 15) (E)
16. White Noise (PR: 13) (-3)
17. Bones and All (PR: 22) (+5)
18. Armageddon Time (PR: Not Ranked)
19. Till (PR: 20) (+1)
20. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 23) (+3)
21. Broker (PR: 17) (-4)
22. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 19) (-3)
23. Living (PR: 25) (+2)
24. Bardo (PR: 4) (-20)
25. The Greatest Beer Run Ever (PR: 24) (-1)
Dropped Out:
The Menu
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)
2. Damien Chazelle, Babylon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 3) (E)
4. Sarah Polley, Women Talking (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Ruben Ostlund, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Todd Field, Tar (PR: 11) (+5)
7. Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Florian Zeller, The Son (PR: 9) (+1)
9. James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 12) (+3)
10. Darren Aronofsky, The Whale (PR: 10) (E)
11. Sam Mendes, Empire of Light (PR: 7) (-4)
12. Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Joseph Kosinski, Top Gun: Maverick (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Noah Baumbach, White Noise (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Baz Luhrmann, Elvis (PR: 14) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Bardo
Maria Schrader, She Said
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Cate Blanchett, Tar (PR: 1) (E)
2. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)
3. Margot Robbie, Babylon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light (PR: 4) (E)
5. Danielle Deadwyler, Till (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ana de Armas, Blonde (PR: 6) (E)
7. Naomi Ackie, I Wanna Dance with Somebody (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Viola Davis, The Woman King (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Florence Pugh, The Wonder (PR: 12) (+3)
10. Carey Mulligan, She Said (PR: 10) (E)
11. Emma Thompson, Good Luck to You, Leo Grande (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Jennifer Lawrence, Causeway (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Taylor Russell, Bones and All (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Tang Wei, Decision to Leave (PR: 12) (-2)
15. Jessica Chastain, The Good Nurse (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Regina King, Shirley (moved to 2023)
Frances McDormand, Women Talking (role not large enough)
Florence Pugh, Don’t Worry Darling
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Brendan Fraser, The Whale (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Hugh Jackman, The Son (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Austin Butler, Elvis (PR: 3) (E)
4. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 10) (+6)
5. Bill Nighy, Living (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Diego Calva, Babylon (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Song Kang-ho, Broker (PR: 7) (E)
8. Micheal Ward, Empire of Light (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Adam Driver, White Noise (PR: 9) (E)
10. Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Paul Mescal, Aftersun (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Gabriel LaBelle, The Fabelmans (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Timothee Chalamet, Bones and All (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Kelvin Harrison, Jr., Chevalier (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Park Hae-il, Decision to Leave (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Daniel Gimenez Cacho, Bardo
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)
2. Jessie Buckley, Women Talking (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Vanessa Kirby, The Son (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Claire Foy, Women Talking (PR: 14) (+10)
5. Hong Chau, The Whale (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Laura Dern, The Son (PR: 6) (E)
7. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Jean Smart, Babylon (PR: 8) (E)
9. Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Samantha Morton, She Said (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Zoe Kazan, She Said (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Sadie Sink, The Whale (PR: 9) (-3)
13. Dakota Johnson, Cha Cha Real Smooth (PR: 13) (E)
14. Dolly De Leon, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 10) (-4)
15. Nina Hoss, Tar (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Griselda Sicillani, Bardo
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)
2. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans (PR 2) (E)
3. Zen McGrath, The Son (PR: 3) (E)
4. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 8) (+4)
5. Woody Harrelson, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Brad Pitt, Babylon (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Ben Whishaw, Women Talking (PR: 7) (E)
8. Anthony Hopkins, Armageddon Time (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans (PR: 9) (E)
10. Anthony Hopkins, The Son (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Tom Hanks, Elvis (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Mark Strong, Tar (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Seth Rogen, The Fabelmans (PR: 13) (E)
14. Ralph Fiennes, The Menu (PR: 14) (E)
15. Russell Crowe, The Greatest Beer Run Ever (PR: 15) (E)
For weeks, there’s been loads of gossip pieces focused on Olivia Wilde’s sophomore effort Don’t Worry Darling (her follow-up to her glowingly received 2019 teen comedy Booksmart). They have everything to do with the director’s romance with costar and pop superstar Harry Styles, Florence Pugh’s decision not to participate in promotion for the picture, and confusion over whether original cast mate Shia LaBeouf quit the project or was fired. Even today, the Venice press conference is generating memes of Chris Pine looking like he’d rather be fighting Thanos somewhere.
None of this chatter has anything to do with the quality of the movie. That’s finally part of the discussion today as it has screened at Lido prior to its September 23rd release. The verdict? I don’t think Warner Bros needs to worry much about its awards campaign spending. They could cut that budget as Darling is posting mostly mediocre reviews (39% on RT at press time). Don’t get me wrong – they’re not all terrible, but none are strong enough to warrant any thought of Oscar nods.
Said to be a so-so Stepford Wives knockoff, Pugh is the beneficiary of the best ink. However, I’d say her performance in December’s The Wonder (which screened at Telluride over the weekend) gives her a better chance at a nomination. We’ll know soon if Darling is a financial success based on the “all press is good press” theory. It’s safe to say that won’t translate to the awards season. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Officially, The Banshees of Inisherin is Martin McDonagh’s follow-up to 2017’s Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri. Five years ago, that pic nabbed 6 Oscar nods including Picture and the playwright/filmmaker’s original screenplay while winning acting trophies for Frances McDormand and Sam Rockwell. Yet Banshees, thematically and personnel wise, may feel more like a follow-up to 2008’s In Bruges. That pitch black comedy earned critical raves and a Golden Globe for Colin Farrell in the Musical/Comedy Best Actor race. Mr. Farrell reunites with Brudges costar Brendan Gleeson in this 1920s set tale of Irish feuding friends. Barry Keoghan and Kerry Condon are among the supporting cast.
Early reviews are quite encouraging with some critics already claiming it’s McDonagh’s finest work to date. If that narrative holds, Banshees could be a bigger Oscar player than I had been assuming. It could even be Fox Searchlight’s strongest contender over Empire of Light, which has its ardent admirers but also drew some mixed Venice reaction. I certainly believe Farrell and Gleeson could be in line for their first nominations (I would think in Actor and Supporting Actor respectively). Condon is generating solid ink and could factor into Supporting Actress (though that category is looking increasingly stuffed). Original Screenplay seems a given while the Carter Burwell score could also make the cut.
If much of the above pans out, we could have another legit BP hopeful in Banshees. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Despite penning the screenplays for Taxi Driver and Raging Bull, Paul Schrader somehow never got an Oscar nomination until his script for 2018’s First Reformed. That was the sole nod for that acclaimed effort as Schrader’s direction and Ethan Hawke’s central performance didn’t make the cut. Last year’s follow-up The Card Counter wasn’t an Academy player at all despite some decent critical reaction.
Schrader’s newest crime thriller is The Master Gardener which has premiered at Venice. Joel Edgerton stars as a horticulturist with a dark past. Sigourney Weaver and Quintessa Swindell costar. While there’s plenty of praise for Edgerton, the Rotten Tomatoes meter is at a middling 58%. If Counter (with an 87% RT score) couldn’t make a dent in the awards chatter, Gardener won’t either. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
The Venice Film Festival is where filmmaker Darren Aronofsky debuted 2008’s The Wrestler, which was a career resurgent role for Mickey Rourke that resulted in a Best Actor nomination (he was probably runner-up after Sean Penn as Milk). In 2010, his follow-up Black Swan‘s premiere in Lido began Natalie Portman’s eventual trip to the Academy’s stage in Best Actress.
Prognosticators have been expecting the same from Aronofsky with The Whale as it seeks to bring Brendan Fraser into the Oscar fold. Based on Samuel D. Hunter’s 2012 play, the pic takes place in one apartment with Fraser as 600 pound teacher attempting to reconnect with his daughter (Sadie Sink of Stranger Things). Costars include Hong Chau, Ty Simpkins, and Samantha Morton.
Reviews are just starting to surface and they are of the mixed variety. Some are claiming it’s an effective tearjerker while others say it misses the mark. However, Fraser’s work is being lauded to the extent that his first Best Actor nomination seems assured. Any other nods are iffy (with the likely exception of Makeup and Hairstyling due to the prosthetics work involved). In Supporting Actress, Chau is being singled out more than Sink and she appears to have a fair shot. As for Picture and Adapted Screenplay, let’s see how the coming days (it will hit Toronto as well) play out with the buzz. With the critical reaction varying widely, Fraser can at least plan his trip to the red carpet. Other races are up in the air. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Florence Pugh’s turn in the forthcoming Don’t Worry Darling (which is readying its Venice debut) might be her highest profile autumn project. Yet the actress (a Supporting Actress nominee for Little Women in 2019) is generating kudos for The Wonder, which has premiered at Telluride. A November theatrical release is planned prior to a December Netflix bow.
Sebastian Lelio directs the drama set in 1860s Ireland. He’s known for critically appreciated efforts like Disobedience and Gloria Bell and five years ago, his Chilean pic A Fantastic Woman won the international feature prize from the Academy. Pugh stars as a nurse tasked with monitoring a young girl said to have survived without food for months. Tom Burke, Niamh Algar, Toby Jones, and Ciaran Hinds costar. The screenplay comes from Emma Donoghue and it’s based on her own novel. She is best known for the book and script for Room, which won Brie Larson a Best Actress Oscar.
The smattering of reviews out are mostly positive though they don’t have me thinking The Wonder is a Best Picture contender. I could see Netflix pushing Pugh in lead actress. And with that… get used to this refrain. I believe 60% of the Actress field might be set already. That would be Michelle Yeah in Everything Everywhere All at Once, Cate Blanchett for Tar, and Olivia Colman for Empire of Light (my post for that is about to be published so consider this a spoiler alert). Pugh and anyone else could be competing for two slots and there’s plenty of performances left unseen.
Bottom line: I wouldn’t count Pugh out based on initial reaction for The Wonder but competition is already severe. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
2015’s Mustang and 2019’s Les Miserables are the only two International Feature Film nominees in the past decade from France. Romain Gavras’s Athena hopes to be the next. It will need to overcome mixed reviews and competition from other native pictures. The action drama streams stateside on September 23rd via Netflix and premiered at the Venice Film Festival today. Dani Benssalah, Sami Slimane, Anthony Bajon, and Ouassini Embarek star.
Focused on themes including police brutality, it’s worth pointing out that the positive reviews for Athena are quite positive and it should have its champions for Academy inclusion. Yet the Rotten Tomatoes score is a little troubling at the moment with 63%. France will, of course, need to select it as the hopeful for its international prize. Internal competition could come in the form of Mia Hansen-Love’s acclaimed One Fine Morning or Saint Omer from Alice Diop.
Bottom line: I suspect that RT number may rise, but there’s no guarantee the French will roll with Athena yet. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
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