Tag: Venice Film Festival

2023 Oscar Predictions: June 14th Edition

My mid-June look at the major races for the 96th Academy Awards adds the screenplay competitions to the mix. In them, my top picks for Best Picture (Killers of the Flower Moon and Past Lives) lead their respective writing categories.

Truth be told, we’re in a bit of a lull for significant awards buzz. The Cannes Film Festival is over and the key fall fests (Toronto, Venice, Telluride) are nearly three months out.

In July, we will have two potential heavyweights unveiled in Oppenheimer and Barbie. At this juncture, a lot of my speculation is simply deciding whether certain features are even released in 2023. We might not see Ana DuVernay’s Caste, Steve McQueen’s Blitz, or Malcolm Washington’s The Piano Lesson until 2024. That’s why I currently have them out of the mix.

One item that has materialized in the past couple of weeks is the release of Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse. The acclaimed animated sequel has established itself as at least a candidate for BP consideration. There’s no doubt it’s the current frontrunner for Animated Feature.

You can peruse all the movement below and I’ll have another update posted in a couple of weeks!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Killers of the Flower Moon (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Past Lives (PR: 3) (+1)

3. The Color Purple (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 7) (+2)

6. Oppenheimer (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Poor Things (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Air (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Saltburn (PR: 6) (-3)

10. The Holdovers (PR: 8) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

11. Maestro (PR: 12) (+1)

12. May December (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Challengers (PR: 14) (+1)

14. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Barbie (PR: 16) (+1)

16. Napoleon (PR: 17) (+1)

17. Asteroid City (PR: 24) (+7)

18. The Book of Clarence (PR: 22) (+4)

19. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: Not Ranked)

20. The Killer (PR: 23) (+3)

21. Flint Strong (PR: 19) (-2)

22. Rustin (PR: 18) (-4)

23. Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 20) (-3)

24. The Nickel Boys (PR: 21) (-3)

25. Ferrari (PR: 25) (E)

Dropped Out:

Blitz

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Blitz Bazawule, The Color Purple (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 6) (E)

7. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Emerald Fennell, Saltburn (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 9) (E)

10. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 10) (E)

11. Ben Affleck, Air (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR:11) (-1)

13. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 14) (+1)

14. Todd Haynes, May December (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Ridley Scott, Napoleon (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Steve McQueen, Blitz

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)

2. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 6) (E)

7. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Zendaya, Challengers (PR: 8) (E)

9. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 12) (+3)

10. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 7) (-3)

11. Kate Winslet, Lee (PR: 11) (E)

12. Regina King, Shirley (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Sandra Hüller, The Zone of Interest (PR: 13) (E)

14. Ryan Destiny, Flint Strong (PR: 14) (E)

15. Judy Greer, Eric Larue (PR: Not Ranked)

Droped Out:

Saoirse Ronan, Blitz

Jane Levy, A Little Prayer

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 1) (E)

2. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 3) (E)

4. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 4) (E)

5. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Anthony Hopkins, Freud’s Last Session (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Kingsley Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 8) (E)

9. Teo Yoo, Past Lives (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Matt Damon, Air (PR: 12) (+2)

11. Joaquin Phoenix, Napoleon (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Mike Faist, Challengers (PR: 14) (+2)

13. David Strathairn, A Little Prayer (PR: 11) (-2)

14. Andre Holland, The Actor (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Ed Harris, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

John David Washington, The Piano Lesson

Best Supporing Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1 . Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 2) (E)

3. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple (PR: 3) (E)

4. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 4) (E)

5. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Viola Davis, Air (PR: 6) (E)

7. Rosamund Pike, Saltburn (PR: 7) (E)

8. Audra McDonald, Rustin (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Aunjanue Ellis, The Nickel Boys (PR: 11) (+2)

10. Lashana Lynch, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 8) (-2)

11. Tilda Swinton, The Killer (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Halle Bailey, The Color Purple (PR: 10) (-2)

13. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 14) (+1)

14. Claire Foy, Strangers (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Jodie Comer, The Bikeriders (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson

Vanessa Kirby, Napoleon

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)

3. Colman Domingo, The Color Purple (PR: 3) (E)

4. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Ben Affleck, Air (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 7) (E)

8. Richard E. Grant, Saltburn (PR: 8) (E)

9. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: 12) (+3)

10. Brian Tyree Henry, Flint Strong (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Corey Hawkins, The Color Purple (PR: 13) (+2)

12. Jesse Plemons, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 10) (-2)

13. Glynn Turman, Rustin (PR: 14) (+1)

14. Ben Foster, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Josh O’Connor, Challengers (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Past Lives

2. Air

3. The Holdovers

4. Saltburn

5. May December

Other Possibilities:

6. Asteroid City

7. Challengers

8. Maestro

9. Anatomy of a Fall

10. The Book of Clarence

11. Rustin

12. Drive Away Dolls

13. Napoleon

14. Bob Marley: One Love

15. Monster

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Killers of the Flower Moon

2. Poor Things

3. The Color Purple

4. The Zone of Interest

5. Dune: Part Two

Other Possibilities:

6. Oppenheimer

7. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

8. Barbie

9. The Nickel Boys

10. Flint Strong

11. Freud’s Last Session

12. Strangers

13. The Bikeriders

14. Ferrari

15. The Boys in the Boat

Oscars: The Case of Brendan Fraser in The Whale

As a morbidly obese English teacher attempting to reconnect with his daughter, Brendan Fraser’s performance in The Whale is next up in my Case Of posts.

The Case for Brendan Fraser:

After a three decade career with films as varied as Encino Man, George of the Jungle, Gods and Monsters, The Mummy, and Crash, Darren Aronofsky’s latest gave Fraser an acclaimed comeback narrative. Since the premiere in Venice, he’s been at the forefront of Best Actor chatter. This resulted in pending noms at SAG and BAFTA and a victory at the Critics Choice Awards.

The Case Against Brendan Fraser:

Reaction to the film itself has been as varied as the lead’s filmography. It missed a Best Picture and Adapted Screenplay nomination. The last Best Actor winner whose movie missed the BP cut is Jeff Bridges from Crazy Heart in 2009. Austin Butler (Elvis) and Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin), who each took the respective lead Actor competitions at the Golden Globes, don’t have that problem.

Previous Nominations:

None

The Verdict:

The narrative of a Fraser podium trip might be too enticing for voters to pass up. However, The Whale‘s divisive reaction throws real doubt as to whether he goes all the way.

My Case Of posts will continue with Kerry Condon in The Banshees of Inisherin!

If you missed the previous posts for the Actor hopefuls, you can peruse them here:

Oscars: The Case of Austin Butler in Elvis
Oscars: The Case of Colin Farrell in The Banshees of Inisherin
Oscars: The Case of Paul Mescal in Aftersun
Oscars: The Case of Bill Nighy in Living

Bones and All Box Office Prediction

MGM/UA hopes younger viewers are hungry for some cannibal love when Bones and All opens wide on Wednesday, November 23rd. Based on a 2015 novel by Camille DeAngelis, Taylor Russell and Timothee Chalamet headline the road flick from director Luca Guadagnino. Costars include Mark Rylance, Michael Stuhlbarg, Andre Holland, Chloe Sevigny, David Gordon Green, and Jessica Harper.

The subject matter could be a challenging one for holiday crowds though Chalamet has a rabid fanbase that could turn up. The Thanksgiving release (it’s out five screens November 18 before the expansion) is also the only holiday newbie geared toward teens and young adults. Strange World is for the kids while Devotion and The Fabelmans skew older. Reviews are pretty appetizing with an 89% Rotten Tomatoes score following its September debut at the Venice Film Festival.

With a reported count of around 2500 venues, I’ll say Bones gets to mid single digits for the three-day and for the five.

Bones and All opening weekend prediction: $3.5 million (Friday to Sunday); $5.3 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

For my Strange World prediction, click here:

Strange World Box Office Prediction

For my Devotion prediction, click here:

Devotion Box Office Prediction

For my The Fabelmans prediction, click here:

The Fabelmans Box Office Prediction

The Banshees of Inisherin Box Office Prediction

Director Martin McDonagh reunites with his In Bruges leads Colin Farrell and Brendan Gleeson in The Banshees of Inisherin. The black comedy set a century ago in Ireland expands to approximately 800 screens next weekend after a solid limited debut. Kerry Condon and Barry Keoghan costar in McDonagh’s follow-up to 2017’s Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri which garnered six Academy nods.

Since its premiere at the Venice Film Festival, Inisherin has been subject to its own awards chatter (all four actors could get nominations). The Rotten Tomatoes meter is 97%. In 58 venues this past frame, Banshees took in over $500,000 with a per screen average approaching $10,000.

That could bode well for the early November buildout. On the other hand, we’ve seen platform release like Tár and Till struggle mightily as their counts grow. Banshees could have a slightly broader appeal. I’ll say anywhere between $2-3 million is the reasonable guesstimate.

The Banshees of Inisherin opening weekend prediction: $2.2 million

For my One Film: Red prediction, click here:

One Piece Film: Red Box Office Prediction

Oscar Predictions: Amsterdam

From 2010-13, David O. Russell made three pictures (The Fighter, Silver Linings Playbook, American Hustle) that collectively earned an astonishing 25 Oscar nominations. This included acting wins for Christian Bale, Melissa Leo, and Jennifer Lawrence. The filmmaker himself has yet to receive a gold statue and his previous effort (2015’s Joy) nabbed just 1 Academy nod for its lead Lawrence.

His latest is Amsterdam and the comedic mystery will be lucky to garner any attention during awards season. It was a curious decision when Russell’s first feature in seven years skipped the festival circuit of Venice, Telluride, and Toronto. Now we may know why.

Early reviews for the October 7th release are not encouraging. There’s only a handful of official reviews which show a 20% Rotten Tomatoes rating. Yet we also have plenty of social media reaction claiming this is a high profile disappointment. The impressive cast is led by Bale, Margot Robbie, and John David Washington with tons of other familiar faces including Robert De Niro, Zoe Saldana, Taylor Swift, Anya Taylor-Joy, Rami Malek, Michael Shannon, and Chris Rock (to name some). I wouldn’t expect any to compete in the acting derbies. Bale and De Niro are getting some decent notices, but it shouldn’t matter (maybe Bale could show up at the Globes for Best Actor in a Musical/Comedy if competition is light).

As I see it, Costume Design and/or Production Design are the only possibilities for Amsterdam to be an Academy player. It’s entirely feasible that it won’t show up at all. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Argentina, 1985

Focused on the brave legal battle against the title nation’s brutal dictatorship, Argentina, 1985 premiered at the Venice Film Festival prior to its limited release Friday. An Amazon Prime streaming release is October 21st. The historical drama comes from director Santiago Mitre with a cast including prolific Argentine star Ricardo Darin, Peter Lanzani, Alejandra Flechner, and Norman Briski.

Reviews from Italy were strong and it stands at 92% on Rotten Tomatoes. The native country has unsurprisingly selected it as their submission for International Feature Film at the Oscars. In 2009, Argentina’s The Secret in Their Eyes won that race. Their last nominee was 2014’s Wild Tales. 

The international race already has some potential heavy hitters like Decision to Leave, All Quiet on the Western Front, and Close. Yet 1985‘s initial reaction makes it a possibility to make the eventual quintet. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Saint Omer

The French cinematic community had some choices as to which pic to submit for their International Feature Film contender at the Oscars. There’s critically appreciated efforts such as Mia Hansen-Love’s One Fine Morning and Romain Gavras’s Athena. Yet they (unsurprisingly) went with Alice Diop’s Saint Omer. Making her first non-documentary film, Diop has already garnered buzz for the legal drama.

Omer received the Grand Jury Prize at the Venice Film Festival (basically the fest’s second place award). That positive reaction continued in Toronto and it holds a Rotten Tomatoes score of 100%.

2015’s Mustang and 2019’s Les Miserables are the only two French IFF hopefuls of the past decade. I currently have Omer listed in fourth position behind Decision to Leave, All Quiet on the Western Front, and Close. It’s a long shot to win, but it has a great shot to make the cut. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: The Eternal Daughter

British director Joanna Hogg’s last two efforts were the critically heralded semi-autobiographical pics The Souvenir (2019) and The Souvenir Part II from last year. Both Souvenir‘s featured Honor Swinton Byrne and her mother – Oscar winner Tilda Swinton.

Mom is back in The Eternal Daughter, a mystery with supernatural themes that premiered in Venice and also played Toronto. Besides Swinton, the cast includes Joseph Mydell and Carly-Sophia Davies. It’s flown a bit under the radar on the fest circuit, but the Rotten Tomatoes score is a sturdy 91%.

The A24 release could garner some mentions on year end critics lists. Like her earlier titles, I question whether the Academy will get on board. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Don’t Worry Darling Box Office Prediction

Much has been written about the behind the scenes happenings with Olivia Wilde’s Don’t Worry Darling over the past several weeks. Her follow-up to 2019’s Booksmart, it has been a favorite of gossip pages. This involves everything from whether or not Shia LaBeouf was fired or quit before filming began or whether Wilde and Florence Pugh are on speaking terms. There was also SpitGate which focused on whether Harry Styles spat on costar Chris Pine at the Venice Film Festival. Spoiler alert: probably not. Will this ink mean pleasing returns when Darling debuts on September 23rd?

Wilde’s sophomore effort stars Pugh and Styles with costars including Wilde, Gemma Chan, KiKi Layne, Nick Kroll, and Pine. Said to be a Stepford Wives like psychological thriller, early reviews have been rather lackluster. Its Rotten Tomatoes meter is 40%.

Pugh is a rising star and, obviously, Styles has his legions of super fans. Yet that translates to music for the latter and we’ve yet to see if his pop star status can translate to big box office numbers. If you subscribe to the “all publicity is good publicity” theory, Darling could manage to top expectations and gross over $20 million for its start. I’m not so sure. I think the current projections of mid to high teens sounds about right.

Don’t Worry Darling opening weekend prediction: $18.9 million

For my Avatar prediction, click here:

Avatar Box Office Prediction

Pearl Box Office Prediction

Blogger’s Note (09/14): I’m revising my estimate up from $2.4 million to $3.4 million.

Shot in secret during the filming of this spring’s horror pic X, Ti West’s prequel Pearl is in theaters Friday. Mia Goth returns in the villainous title role with a supporting cast including David Corenswat, Tandi Wright, and Matthew Sunderland. It premiered at the Venice Film Festival days ago to pleasing reviews (87% on Rotten Tomatoes). That’s just slightly under the meter of its predecessor which nabbed 94%.

While X had the critics on its side, its box office performance was so-so. The $4.3 million opening culminated in an overall domestic gross of just under $12 million. While that might seem low, it’s a tidy profit for A24 considering the reported $1 million budget.

I’m sure Pearl wasn’t pricey either, but I suspect this won’t even reach X figures. I’ll say between $2-3 million sounds about right.

Pearl opening weekend prediction: $3.4 million

For my The Woman King prediction, click here:

The Woman King Box Office Prediction

For my See How They Run prediction, click here:

See How They Run Box Office Prediction