Tag: Troy Kotsur

98th Academy Awards Predictions: November 23rd Edition

The five Best Picture winners from this decade have all seen at least one of their cast members win an acting Oscar: Frances McDormand was Best Actress for 2020’s Nomadland, Troy Kotsur took Supporting Actor for 2021’s CODA, 2022’s Everything Everywhere All at Once boasted victories in Actress (Michelle Yeoh), Supporting Actress (Jamie Lee Curtis), and Supporting Actor (Ke Huy Quan), Cillian Murphy and Robert Downey Jr. were the lead and supporting actor winners for Oppenheimer in 2023, and Mikey Madison was last year’s Actress recipient for Anora.

That’s why it felt strange not having any of the thespians from One Battle for Another listed at #1 in my possibilities. I’ve had the acclaimed Paul Thomas Anderson effort on top of my Best Picture projections for several weeks. Yet I’ve had Leonardo DiCaprio (Best Actor), Sean Penn (Supporting Actor), and Teyana Taylor (Supporting Actress) each listed 2nd behind my current frontrunners in those races.

Excellent arguments can be made for all three to be 1st in their fields. I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised to see at least two Battle ensemble members take gold. Today I am elevating one of them to the top position and that’s Teyana Taylor. She takes the spot with Ariana Grande (Wicked: For Good) slipping to second. Frankly, this is less about Taylor and more about Wicked‘s so-so critical reaction when the embargo lifted on Monday.

I still have Wicked clinging to a BP nom and Cynthia Erivo managing an Actress nod – though I am less convinced that either will happen. You will see dips in other categories below and it appears unlikely to match the 10 nominations that its predecessor achieved. To be clear, Grande is still a threat to win. She was probably runner-up to Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez) last time and there could be enough goodwill for the Good Witch to prevail.

In other developments, I am putting two performers in the supporting fields in for the first time! Amy Madigan’s costume inspiring Weapons work makes the quintet in Supporting Actress. This is partly due to confusion as to which Marty Supreme costar (Gwyneth Paltrow or Odessa A’Zion) is more viable. I basically have them canceling each other out to Madigan’s benefit.

Jacob Elordi’s monstrous performance in Frankenstein is also elevated with Battle‘s Benicio del Toro now on the outside looking in. I nearly dropped Adam Sandler (Jay Kelly) but I hesitate to drop him with his costar George Clooney still in my Actor five.

You can read all the movement below!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. One Battle After Another (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Hamnet (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)

4. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)

5. Sentimental Value (PR: 5) (E)

6. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 6) (E)

7. Frankenstein (PR: 7) (E)

8. Jay Kelly (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Wicked: For Good (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 9) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

11. Bugonia (PR: 11) (E)

12. The Secret Agent (PR: 12) (E)

13. Train Dreams (PR: 14) (+1)

14. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 15) (+1)

15. No Other Choice (PR: 13) (-2)

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

2. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 2) (E)

3. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 3) (E)

4. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (E)

7. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 7) (E)

8. Kieber Mendonça Filho, The Secret Agent (PR: 8) (E)

9. Clint Bentley, Train Dreams (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice (PR: 9) (-1)

Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 1) (E)

2. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)

3. Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 6) (E)

7. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 7) (E)

8. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 8) (E)

9. Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue (PR: 9) (E)

10. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (PR: 10) (E)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)

2. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)

3. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: 3) (E)

4. Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon (PR: 4) (E)

5. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 6) (E)

7. Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 9) (E)

10. Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone (PR: 10) (E)

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (E)

4. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (E)

5. Amy Madigan, Weapons (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Odessa A’Zion, Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Regina Hall, One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (E)

9. Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)

3. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: 3) (E)

4. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 7) (E)

8. Andrew Scott, Blue Moon (PR: 8) (E)

9. William H. Macy, Train Dreams (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Jeremy Strong, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

3. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (+1)

4. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Secret Agent (PR: 6) (E)

7. Blue Moon (PR: 7) (E)

8. Is This Thing On? (PR: 9) (+1)

9. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Sorry, Baby (PR: 8) (-2)

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

2. Hamnet (PR: 2) (E)

3. Bugonia (PR: 3) (E)

4. Train Dreams (PR: 5) (+1)

5. No Other Choice (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Frankenstein (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 6) (-1)

8. The Life of Chuck (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Hedda (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Nuremberg (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Wicked: For Good

Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

2. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Secret Agent (PR: 3) (E)

4. No Other Choice (PR: 4) (E)

5. Left-Handed Girl (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Voice of Hind Rajab (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Sirât (PR: 6) (-1)

8. The President’s Cake (PR: 8) (E)

9. Sound of Falling (PR: 10) (+1)

10. The Love That Remains (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 1) (E)

2. Zootopia 2 (PR: 2) (E)

3. Arco (PR: 3) (E)

4. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain (PR: 4) (E)

5. Elio (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Scarlet (PR: 6) (E)

7. In Your Dreams (PR: 8) (+1)

8. A Magnificent Life (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Boys Go to Jupiter (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Lost in Starlight (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Ne Zha 2

Animal Farm

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Perfect Neighbor (PR: 1) (E)

2. 2000 Meters to Andrivka (PR: 2) (E)

3. Cover-Up (PR: 3) (E)

4. Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Mr. Nobody Against Putin (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Seeds (PR: 8) (+1)

8. The Alabama Solution (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Dead President Now! (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Cutting Through Rocks (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Tale of Silyan

Best Casting

Predicted Nominees:

1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)

4. Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Hamnet (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Sentimental Value (PR: 8) (E)

9. Frankenstein (PR: 9) (E)

10. Rental Family (PR: 10) (E)

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)

3. Frankenstein (PR: 3) (E)

4. Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)

5. Train Dreams (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 7) (E)

8. Jay Kelly (PR: 8) (E)

9. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Bugonia (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

F1

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)

4. Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)

5. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (-1)

7. One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (+1)

8. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 6) (-1)

9. Hedda (PR: 9) (E)

10. Snow White (PR: 10) (E)

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)

4. Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)

5. Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. F1 (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Jay Kelly (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Wicked: For Good (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 10) (+1)

10. No Other Choice (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Smashing Machine (PR: 4) (E)

5. 28 Years Later (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wolf Man (PR: 7) (+1)

7. One Battle After Another (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Bugonia (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 9) (E)

10. Weapons (PR: 8) (-2)

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)

3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)

4. Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Frankenstein (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Sentimental Value (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Wicked: For Good (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Hedda (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Bugonia

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 1) (E)

2. “I Lied to You” from Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

3. “The Girl in the Bubble” from Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (E)

4. “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 4) (E)

5. “Clothed by the Sun” from The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Train Dreams” from Train Dreams (PR: 7) (+1)

7. “No Place Like Home” from Wicked: For Good (PR: 5) (-2)

8. “Last Time (I Seen the Sun)” from Sinners (PR: 9) (+1)

9. “Highest 2 Lowest” from Highest 2 Lowest (PR: 10) (+1)

10. “Dream As One” from Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

“Salt Then Sour Then Sweet” from Come See Me in the Good Light

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)

3. Hamnet (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Sinners (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 5) (-1)

7. One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (E)

8. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 8) (E)

9. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Bugonia (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

The Phoenician Scheme

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 3) (+1)

3. F1 (PR: 2) (-1)

4. One Battle After Another (PR: 4) (E)

5. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (E)

7. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Frankenstein (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Warfare (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Marty Supreme (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Testament of Ann Lee

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)

3. Superman (PR: 3) (E)

4. F1 (PR: 4) (E)

5. Frankenstein (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Fantastic Four: First Steps (PR: 7) (E)

8. Mickey 17 (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Tron: Ares (PR: 8) (-1)

10. How to Train Your Dragon (PR: 10) (E)

That equates to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:

12 Nominations

One Battle After Another, Sinners

11 Nominations

Hamnet

8 Nominations

Marty Supreme, Sentimental Value, Wicked: For Good

7 Nominations

Frankenstein

6 Nominations

Jay Kelly

4 Nominations

It Was Just an Accident

3 Nominations

Avatar: Fire and Ash

2 Nominations

F1, KPop Demon Hunters, No Other Choice, The Secret Agent, The Testament of Ann Lee, Train Dreams

1 Nomination

28 Years Later, 2000 Meters to Andrivka, Apocalypse in the Tropics, Arco, Blue Moon, Bugonia, Cover-Up, Diane Warren: Relentless, Elio, Kiss of the Spider Woman, Left-Handed Girl, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning, The Perfect Neighbor, Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk, The Smashing Machine, Superman, Weapons, Zootopia 2

A Different Man Shocks at Gotham

Tonight’s Gotham Awards were not expected to provide any major clues as to how the awards season will play out. That might hold true, but I do think the winner of Best Feature could be a preview for one picture in particular.

Adam Schimberg’s A Different Man was the surprise winner in the big race over the heavily favored Anora from Sean Baker. For those that didn’t believe Anora would away with the top prize from the New York group that honors indie movies, the runner-up pick would’ve been RaMell Ross’s Nickel Boys. Both of them are anticipated to nab BP nods (especially Anora). And while that still is the case, it does make me question all the prognosticators who have Anora ranked #1 (a lot do). I haven’t yet and have always slotted it 2nd or 3rd behind (lately) The Brutalist or Conclave. By the way, Challengers and Babygirl were the other contenders.

So… should we be thinking about A Different Man in Best Picture? I wouldn’t make that leap. However, it’s worth noting that four of the past five Gotham Feature victors managed a BP slot: 2019’s Marriage Story, 2020’s Nomadland (which won), 2022’s Everything Everywhere All at Once (another winner), and last year’s Past Lives. The exception is The Lost Daughter from 2021. Don’t expect Different to all of a sudden pop into my top 10 in BP, but you might see it between 11-15 in other possibilities when I update.

The no-show in victories for Anora continued in Director as RaMell Ross was honored for Nickel Boys. Strangely enough, this was the first year where the Gothams bestowed an individual behind the camera prize so comparisons cannot be made. That said, Ross is certainly a possibility at the Oscars though I currently don’t have him in my quintet.

The Gothams do not separate gender in their lead and supporting races as of 2021. Voters clearly were taken with Sing Sing as Colman Domingo was Outstanding Lead Performer and Clarence Maclin was Outstanding Supporting Performer.

For Domingo, he beat out his anticipated competitor in Best Actor Adrien Brody (The Brutalist) as well as plenty of Actress possibilities like Mikey Madison (Anora), Saoirse Ronan (The Outrun), Demi Moore (The Substance), Marianne Jean-Baptiste (Hard Truths), Nicole Kidman (Babygirl), and Pamela Anderson (The Last Showgirl). Since 2021, only Olivia Colman (The Lost Daughter) received an Oscar nod after winning this category.

Maclin was selected over other potential Supporting Actor rivals including Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain), Guy Pearce (The Brutalist), Yura Borisov (Anora), and A Different Man‘s Adam Pearson. Supporting Actress hopefuls Danielle Deadwyler (The Piano Lesson) and Natasha Lyonne (His Three Daughters) were also in the mix. The winners of supporting here in 2021 (Troy Kotsur for CODA) and 2022 (Ke Huy Quan in Everything Everywhere) went onto take the Supporting Actor Oscar. Last year’s recipient Charles Melton (May December) didn’t make the Academy’s cut. Both Domingo and Maclin are expected to receive Oscar nominations.

Speaking of His Three Daughters, it won Screenplay. Yet you can’t read much into that because none of the other nominees (Between the Temples, Evil Does Not Exist, Femme, Janet Planet) are expected to contend at the Academy Awards.

The precursors for Oscars are begin to roll out and keep an eye on this blog for all the coverage!

Gotham Honors Past Lives

The 33rd Annual Gotham Awards were held this evening and it was looking like a potential night of missed opportunities for Celine Song’s Past Lives… until the end. Of the five nominees for Best Feature, the acclaimed A24 romantic drama was really the only one with legit Best Picture aspirations at the Oscars. It did take the top prize over Passages, Reality, Showing Up, and A Thousand and One.

This was following its director Song surprisingly not being awarded Breakthrough Director. That instead went to A.V. Rockwell for A Thousand and One and made the announcement for the big race a bit suspenseful.

Of the 20 pictures that have taken Best Feature at the Oscars (this category has existed since 2004 and there was a tie one year), 12 have become Academy hopefuls for BP. Half of those (The Hurt Locker, Birdman, Spotlight, Moonlight, Nomadland, Everything Everywhere All at Once) won. As a reminder, until this year, contenders for the Gothams were typically lower budgeted titles. Even with the budgetary restrictions removed, some heavy hitters like Oppenheimer and Killers of the Flower Moon opted not to compete at this ceremony.

As far as Past Lives is concerned, the perception of it losing could’ve hindered its Oscar chances. So it helped itself tonight by doing what it was expected to do. That said, it missed another possible victory with Greta Lee coming up short in Outstanding Lead Performance. Lily Gladstone took the trophy… not for the non-contending Killers of the Flower Moon, but for The Unknown Country. Gladstone seems on her way to a Best Actress slot for Moon. This is another unexpected win for an awards body that frequently provides them.

Outstanding Supporting Performance went to Charles Melton in May December and he might’ve upped his Oscar stock more than anyone. This race saw potential victors like Ryan Gosling (Barbie) and Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers) end up behind him. **Note that the Gothams recently switched to ten nominees in lead and supporting without a divide for gender**. I’ve had Melton in my projected quintet recently and am feeling more and more confident about that. While Melton is a long shot to win at the big show, it should be noted that the previous two recipients (Troy Kotsur in CODA and Ke Huy Quan for Everything Everywhere) took the Supporting Actor Oscar.

Justine Triet’s Anatomy of a Fall received the Screenplay and International Feature awards. France did not select it as their pick for International Feature Film at the Academy Awards (where it probably would’ve been locked in a fierce competition with The Zone of Interest). Fall is a coin toss for BP inclusion so every little bit helps.

Finally, Four Daughters is your Documentary Feature pick (over 20 Days in Mariupol) as it increases it exposure.

Keep an eye on the blog for an Oscar predictions update in the coming days!

Best Picture 2021: The Final Five

We have reached 2021 in my posts speculating on a specific piece of Oscar history. As awards followers are aware, 2009 saw the Academy expand the Best Picture category from five movies to ten. That lasted for two years and in 2011, it switched to anywhere from 5-10 with 8 or 9 as the magic numbers for several years. In 2021, the number reverted back to a set ten.

What if that hadn’t happened? What if the BP derby had stayed at a quintet? What pictures would have made the cut?

Beyond the headlines made during the 94th Academy Awards by Will Smith and Chris Rock, the other story was a little movie called CODA. The family drama from Apple TV built momentum beginning at the Sundance Film Festival early in the year. It culminated in a 3/3 performance on Oscar night – winning Picture, Original Screenplay, and Supporting Actor (Troy Kotsur). We can assume it would’ve made the final cut.

As for the other nine, let’s take a deeper dive:

Belfast

Kenneth Branagh’s semi-autobiographical coming-of-age drama picked up other key nods in Director, Supporting Actress (Judi Dench), Supporting Actor (Ciaran Hinds), Original Song, and Sound. It didn’t emerge victorious in any, but its sole win came in Original Screenplay in a tight contest with Licorice Pizza.

Does It Make the Final Five?

Yes. The seven nominations were tied for third most and the screenplay trophy pushes it over.

Don’t Look Up

Adam McKay’s political satire was a streaming hit for Netflix with a megawatt all-star cast including Leonardo DiCaprio, Jennifer Lawrence, and Meryl Streep. Even with the Power of the Meryl, it received just three other mentions besides Picture in Original Screenplay, Original Score, and Film Editing (going 0 for 4).

Does It Make the Final Five?

No. Critics were divided and Netflix likely would’ve thrown all their campaign muscle behind The Power of the Dog if the count was only five.

Drive My Car

Ryusuke Hamaguchi’s three-hour Japanese drama easily won the International Feature Film race, but it also picked up other nods in Director and Adapted Screenplay.

Does It Make the Final Five?

No, but you could argue otherwise. I left it off due to the power of the others and the fact that foreign directors often get nominated without their films making the BP cut.

Dune

Denis Villeneuve was shockingly omitted from the Best Director derby. However, the sci-fi epic got the second most nominations at 10. It won a ceremony high 6 with Cinematography, Film Editing, Original Score, Production Design, Sound, and Visual Effects. The other nods were Adapted Screenplay, Costume Design, and Makeup and Hairstyling.

Does It Make the Final Five?

Yes. The Villeneuve snub causes some doubt, but the sheer amount of victories makes the inclusion likely.

King Richard

Will Smith infamously had the true-life sports drama’s sole win in Actor and it was also nominated in Supporting Actress (Aunjanue Ellis), Original Screenplay, Original Song, and Film Editing.

Does It Make the Final Five?

No. Yet this is another one that was a very close call. Once again, I just couldn’t take out some upcoming entries.

Licorice Pizza

Paul Thomas Anderson’s coming-of-age dramedy also saw its maker nominated in Director and Original Screenplay. It went 0 for 3.

Does It Make the Final Five?

No. That performance is a low showing for PTA’s pic and this was fairly easy to leave out of the ultimate quintet.

Nightmare Alley

Guillermo del Toro’s noirish thriller received three additional tech nods (losing all) in Cinematography, Costume Design, and Production Design.

Does It Make the Final Five?

No. This was (by a considerable margin) the easiest to leave off since it was blanked in all other major races like directing and screenplay and any acting mentions.

The Power of the Dog

Jane Campion’s direction is responsible for the Netflix Western’s one win. The nom count was an even better than expected 12 that included Actor (Benedict Cumberbatch), Supporting Actress (Kirsten Dunst), Supporting Actor (Kodi Smit-McPhee and Jesse Plemons), Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Film Editing, Original Score, Production Design, and Sound.

Does It Make the Final Five?

Yes, even though that 1/12 count is underwhelming to be kind. That’s still the most nods and Campion winning director seals it.

West Side Story

Steven Spielberg’s musical remake had its only win for Ariana DeBose (doing her thing in Supporting Actress). Five additional noms came for Mr. Spielberg, Cinematography, Costume Design, Production Design, and Sound.

Does It Make the Final Five?

Yes. I’ll admit this is a tough one and you could put Drive My Car or King Richard in its place. My gut says The Power of the Spielberg gives it a minor advantage.

That means my final 2021 five is:

Belfast

CODA

Dune

The Power of the Dog

West Side Story

2022 is next! And then, I’m switching it up. From 2008 and working backwards, I’ll do the inverse of these posts. For those years, I’ll speculate on what an expanded lineup of 10 might look like.

If you missed my entries for 2009-20, have no fear! They’re here:

Best Picture 2009: The Final Five
Best Picture 2010: The Final Five
Best Picture 2011: The Final Five
Best Picture 2012: The Final Five
Best Picture 2013: The Final Five
Best Picture 2014: The Final Five
Best Picture 2015: The Final Five
Best Picture 2016: The Final Five
Best Picture 2017: The Final Five
Best Picture 2018: The Final Five
Best Picture 2019: The Final Five
Best Picture 2020: The Final Five

29th Screen Actors Guild Awards Nomination Predictions

Another significant piece of the Oscar prognosticating puzzle is put together on Wednesday when nominations for the 29th Screen Actors Guild (SAG) Awards are dropped. The ceremony’s main prize, it’s important to note, is not Best Picture but Best Ensemble. That means a correlation from the Oscar BP and the top race here is not apples to apples. It is worth noting that half of the last 10 SAG Ensemble victors (Argo, Birdman, Spotlight, Parasite, CODA) did go on to win BP from the Academy. On the other hand, three recent BPs (The Shape of Water, Green Book, Nomadland) didn’t make the SAG quintet at all.

Let’s go through all six categories one by one with my picks and a runner-up call, shall we?

Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture

There are plenty of possibilities including box office hits like Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Elvis, and Top Gun: Maverick. For Panther, the original won Ensemble in 2018 so the sequel materializing is feasible. I wouldn’t discount the sprawling cast of Babylon though middling reviews could hurt it. It’s tempting to pick Glass Onion but I’m hesitant since Knives Out was snubbed in 2019.

Everything Everywhere All at Once and The Fabelmans seem safe. Despite the small call sheet for The Banshees of Inisherin (with just four significant roles), I could see the SAG branch honoring it. I’m also liking The Woman King‘s chances. Women Talking is perhaps the biggest question mark. It has underperformed with precursors. A couple of months ago, I’d have considered it a potential frontrunner to win. Now I wonder if it makes it at all. Nevertheless – here’s my take:

Predicted Nominees:

The Banshees of Inisherin

Everything Everywhere All at Once

The Fabelmans

The Woman King

Women Talking

Runner-Up: Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role

In the previous decade, SAG in Actress has matched the Academy 4/5 on six occasions and 3/5 on four. There are no perfect correlations. SAG has shown they will throw in a shocker – Jennifer Aniston in Cake, Sarah Silverman for I Smile Back or Emily Blunt in The Girl on the Train are recent examples. If there’s one here, look out for Naomi Ackie (Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance with Somebody).

Margot Robbie (Babylon) is currently the one I’ve got in the Academy five (for the moment) that I don’t have here. Ana de Armas (Blonde) is a real threat. If she makes this quintet, look for her Oscar stock to soar. With those possibilities mentioned, my choices are…

Predicted Nominees:

Cate Blanchett, Tár

Viola Davis, The Woman King

Danielle Deadwyler, Till

Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans

Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Runner-Up: Ana de Armas, Blonde

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role

Austin Butler (Elvis), Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin), and Brendan Fraser (The Whale) should all be safe. Bill Nighy (Living) is fourth though I suspect there’s a better chance at SAG leaving him off than the Academy. Then there’s that five spot. It could be Tom Cruise (Top Gun: Maverick), Tom Hanks (A Man Called Otto), Hugh Jackman (The Son), or Paul Mescal (Aftersun). Take your pick. I’m leaning toward the star of the year’s biggest hit. On a side note, there’s been a SAG/Oscar match of 5/5 for the previous two cycles.

Predicted Nominees:

Austin Butler, Elvis

Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick

Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin

Brendan Fraser, The Whale

Bill Nighy, Living

Runner-Up: Paul Mescal, Aftersun

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role

Last year was an anomaly when just 2 of the SAG nominees (Ariana DeBose for West Side Story and The Power of the Dog‘s Kirsten Dunst) scored Oscar nods. The magic number is usually 3 or 4. The wide open nature of this race has been discussed a lot on the blog. Beyond my picks and runner-up, don’t discount Dolly De Leon (Triangle of Sadness), Claire Foy (Women Talking), Stephanie Hsu (Everything Everywhere All at Once), Janelle Monae (Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery), and Carey Mulligan (She Said).

Predicted Nominees:

Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Jessie Buckley, Women Talking

Hong Chau, The Whale

Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin

Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Runner-Up: Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role

Like Supporting Actress last year, there was only a 2 for 5 match with Troy Kotsur in CODA and Kodi Smit-McPhee in The Power of the Dog. Usually it’s 4. For 2022, I believe only Ke Huy Quan and Brendan Gleeson are safe assumptions. The remaining three slots should be some combo of Paul Dano (The Fabelmans), Tom Hanks (Elvis), Brian Tyree Henry (Causeway), Judd Hirsch (The Fabelmans), Brian Tyree Henry (Causeway), Brad Pitt (Babylon), and Eddie Redmayne (The Good Nurse) sorting it out.

Predicted Nominees:

Paul Dano, The Fabelmans

Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin

Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin

Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Eddie Redmayne, The Good Nurse

Runner-Up: Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway

Outstanding Performance by a Stunt Ensemble

Don’t discount The Batman or Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, but my quintet is as follows…

Predicted Nominees:

The Batman

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Everything Everywhere All at Once

Top Gun: Maverick

The Woman King

Runner-Up: RRR

That equates to these movies generating these numbers:

5 Nominations

The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once

3 Nominations

The Fabelmans, The Woman King

2 Nominations

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Top Gun: Maverick, The Whale, Women Talking

1 Nomination

The Batman, Elvis, The Good Nurse, Living, Tár, Till

On Wednesday evening you can expect a recap of what happens after noms are revealed!

2022 Oscar Predictions: The State of the Supporting Actor Race

With two months to go for 2022 releases to make their mark with awards voters, it’s a opportune time to assess the six major Oscar races. That would be Picture, Director, and the four acting derbies.

It begins with Supporting Actor. Over the past couple of years, this has been the category that’s confounded me the most during this juncture in the calendar.

That was a different story three years ago. In late October of 2019, I correctly identified 4 out of the eventual 5 nominees. This included winner Brad Pitt for Once Upon a Time in Hollywood as well as Tom Hanks (A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood), Anthony Hopkins (The Two Popes), and Al Pacino (The Irishman). The other nominee – Joe Pesci for The Irishman – was in my #6 spot.

For the unpredictable year that was 2020 (due to constantly shifting release dates because of COVID), I only named 2 of the 5 hopefuls two months out – Sacha Baron Cohen for The Trial of the Chicago 7 and Leslie Odom Jr. for One Night in Miami. I still had eventual victor Daniel Kaluuya (Judas and the Black Messiah) projected for lead actor until the studio announced him for supporting.

In 2021, I made a point to say that the Supporting Actor derby was wide open in late October. And that was evidenced in my only identifying 1 of the eventual Supporting Actor quintet in the Halloween time frame – Ciaran Hinds in Belfast. I had Troy Kotsur (CODA), who would take the gold statue, in 10th place. Bradley Cooper (Licorice Pizza) was in first place and he missed out. Kodi Smit-McPhee (The Power of the Dog), who made the cut, was in 8th place. His costar Jesse Plemons and J.K. Simmons (Being the Ricardos) weren’t listed at all.

Which brings us to 2022 and at this spooky time of year, I would say this competition is up in the air with no obvious frontrunner. 12 months ago, however, I couldn’t have imagined I’d kick off the speculation with this sentence…

The Supporting Actor discussion starts with Ke Huy Quan.

The 51-year-old actor belongs in the mid 80s cinematic Hall of Fame with his turns as Short Round in Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom and Data in The Goonies. His return to acting in Everything Everywhere All at Once has been met with raves. It’s also undeniable that his win would be a heckuva Academy narrative nearly 40 years after his iconic child performances. I’ve had him listed in first place for weeks and that remains.

In four of the last five years, we’ve witnessed double nominees in Supporting Actor. Last year it was the aforementioned Smit-McPhee and Plemons for The Power of the Dog. In 2020, we had the winner Daniel Kaluuya in Judas and the Black Messiah and his costar Lakeith Stanfield. 2019’s Irishman double duo was Pacino and Pesci. Five years ago, it was Sam Rockwell (who won) and Woody Harrelson for Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri.

Martin McDonagh directed Billboards and his follow-up is The Banshees of Inisherin. Brendan Gleeson has sat in the #2 position for several prediction posts in a row. He’s a threat to take the prize. I believe his costar Barry Keoghan may also get in.

Banshees is not the only viable option for double nominees. Ke Huy Quan’s Doom maker Steven Spielberg has The Fabelmans. Before it screened at the Toronto Film Festival, we wondered whether Paul Dano or Seth Rogen (or both) would be the likely nominee(s). Post screening, scene (just one scene) stealer Judd Hirsch bubbled up while Rogen’s viability dwindled. Dano’s work is understated and certainly not as flashy as Hirsch’s brief turn. That leads me to put Hirsch in with Dano on the outside looking in. I’ll admit it’s a coin flip.

Damien Chazelle’s Babylon screens for critics in two weeks. There’s a trio of possibilities with Brad Pitt, Jovan Adepo, and Tobey Maguire. I’ve had Pitt in my 5 previously. It’s fair to speculate whether his recent tabloid headlines could hinder him. We’ll know more once reviews roll in.

Ben Whishaw in Women Talking is a trendy selection and for good reason. I’m not completely sold as voters could opt to focus only on his female cast members Claire Foy and Jessie Buckley (and maybe others) in Supporting Actress. Yet it feels wrong to keep him out right now.

You have to go back to 2013 to find the last time the five contenders all came from Best Picture nominees. I’m not wild about the fact that my projections currently do. There’s a few names that could get in from movies I’m not putting in BP list. We have Eddie Redmayne in The Good Nurse, Brian Tyree Henry for Causeway, Jeremy Strong or Anthony Hopkins in Armageddon Time, Mark Rylance in Bones and All, Micheal Ward in Empire of Light, Don Cheadle in White Noise, and Tom Hanks in Elvis. Of that group, I’m starting to flirt with the idea of Rylance being the guy. He scored an upset win here with Bridge of Spies in 2015 over Sylvester Stallone in Creed and Bones has its ardent admirers. I wouldn’t discount the Redmayne pick as he’s a Best Actor winner in 2014 for The Theory of Everything who was nominated again the following year with The Danish Girl. If Elvis manages a BP nod (not out of the question), this would increase the inclusion of Hanks. I do have Triangle of Sadness in my BP ten and that could mean a third nomination for Woody Harrelson.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fvymi_20NVo

Bottom line: I feel pretty confident about Ke Huy Quan and Brendan Gleeson. Everything everywhere else is up in the air.

With that said, here’s my state of the race:

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)

2. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (E)

3. Ben Whishaw, Women Talking (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (-3)

7. Brad Pitt, Babylon (PR: 7) (E)

8. Mark Rylance, Bones and All (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Woody Harrelson, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Eddie Redmayne, The Good Nurse (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway

Tom Hanks, Elvis

My deep dive with the Supporting Actress field is next!

Oscars Reaction: 94th Academy Awards

The pranksters of the Internet had a little fun with the justly criticized decision to have a “Fan Favorite” award. The top 3 consisted of Netflix’s Army of the Dead, the reviled Cinderella remake, and Johnny Depp’s barely seen Minamata. I’m guessing this viewer’s choice designation experiment will be unique to the 94th Academy Awards and this ceremony only. Gotta love footnotes, eh?

Let’s talk about what else happened at the Oscars. No… not that. Not yet.

I went 17 for 20, but I missed the biggie. CODA took Best Picture over The Power of the Dog. In fact, the Apple TV pic went 3 for 3 as it also won Adapted Screenplay (I picked Dog) and Troy Kotsur for Supporting Actor.

I admittedly had an upset selection with “Dos Oruguitas” from Encanto over “No Time to Die” from that Bond pic. Billie Eilish did indeed take the musical prize and it’s now the third 007 theme in a row to win after “Skyfall” (2012) and “Writing’s on the Wall” from Spectre (2015).

The other 16 categories went according to my prognostications… Will Smith as Best Actor for King Richard… NOT YET…

Jessica Chastain (Best Actress for The Eyes of Tammy Faye) and Ariana DeBose (Supporting Actor for West Side Story). Belfast for Original Screenplay. Encanto in Animated Feature and Drive My Car for International Feature Film and Summer of Soul as Documentary Feature. You can read the rest. Dune won the most trophies with six.

The Power of the Dog took just one award with Jane Campion taking Director and becoming the third woman to do so and second in a row.  It marks the first time since 1967 that director’s win for the movie marks its sole victory. For you trivia buffs… it was Mike Nichols for The Graduate. 

OK… let’s get real. All of what I’m writing about is a footnote. That’s because  Will Smith’s open hand slap of Chris Rock for a joke directed at wife Jada Pinkett Smith is all the 94th edition of the Oscars will be remembered for. It was shocking (and riveting) TV made even more so with the knowledge that Smith would be giving a speech moments later. I still don’t know what to think and I’m still a little aghast at what I saw. That whole reading the wrong winner from five years ago seems a little small potatoes now.

I do know this… my Oscar predictions and speculations for the 95th Academy Awards will be here before you know it.

2021 Oscars: FINAL Winner Predictions

And it’s come to this! After seven months of endless speculation, predictions, and posts – the 94th Academy Awards (with your hosts Wanda Sykes, Amy Schumer, and Regina Hall) airs this Sunday evening.

These are my final picks for the races covering feature films. Will the Best Picture be CODA?

Or The Power of the Dog?

We have ourselves some real intrigue as both are strong possibilities. Either way, a steamer (either Netflix or Apple TV) should pick up its inaugural Best Pic victory.

Will there be upsets in any of the acting derbies where there seems to be a consensus four based on precursors? And just what will occur in the screenplay races which look unpredictable?

For each race, I’ll give you a bit of commentary along with my projected victor and the runner-up.

Let’s get to it! On Sunday evening, you will see a recap with how I performed…

Best Picture

Nominees:

Belfast

CODA

Don’t Look Up

Drive My Car

Dune

King Richard

Licorice Pizza

Nightmare Alley

The Power of the Dog

West Side Story

Commentary:

Well, the big daddy of them all has certainly become fascinating. CODA, the little Sundance pic that could, has surged in the past few days. In addition to winning the SAG Ensemble prize, it captured the Producers Guild top honor and was a BAFTA selection for Adapted Screenplay. These designations (PGA especially) are significant precursors. A strong argument could be made that it has the momentum as voting closed yesterday. In fact, I’ve seen more prognosticators picking it this week than not…

However, The Power of the Dog is still quite viable. It took the Golden Globe Best Drama trophy as well as Critics Choice and BAFTA. Until CODA‘s rise, it was the heavy favorite.

We’ve got a real coin flip, folks! That definitely makes the end of Oscar night more suspenseful than last year when Nomadland seemed unbeatable and indeed was.

I don’t believe any of the other eight pictures have a chance. As for the two that do, I’ve gone back and forth constantly all week. There’s a time to stop speculating and make a final pick and I still believe there’s enough power for the Dog to edge out CODA. That said, I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if it turns out the other way.

PREDICTED WINNER:

The Power of the Dog

Runner-Up:

CODA

Best Director

Nominees:

Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza

Kenneth Branagh, Belfast

Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog

Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Drive My Car

Steven Spielberg, West Side Story

Commentary:

This is far easier than Picture. With CODA maker Sian Heder absent, Jane Campion is in line to become the third female (and second in a row) to make a podium trip. She’s won all the key precursors – DGA, Globes, Critics Choice. It’s even a challenge to name a runner-up (I guess I’ll say Spielberg because he’s Spielberg). Make no mistake – this is one of the simplest checkmarks on the ballot.

PREDICTED WINNER:

Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog

Runner-Up:

Steven Spielberg, West Side Story

Best Actress

Nominees:

Jessicas Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye

Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter

Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers

Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos

Kristen Stewart, Spencer

Commentary:

Kidman garnered the initial heat after a surprise Globe win, but that’s stalled as no other awards programs followed suit. Instead it’s been Chastain on the minor streak with SAG and Critics Choice. If there’s an upset in any acting derby, this is probably where it happens. Stewart’s road to Oscar looked shaky after some snubs. Academy voters could reward her and there’s some chatter about Cruz being viable. Yet I’m sticking with the safest best and that’s Chastain taking her first gold.

PREDICTED WINNER:

Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye

Riunner-Up:

Kristen Stewart, Spencer

Best Actor

Nominees:

Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos

Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog

Andrew Garfield, tick, tick… Boom!

Will Smith, King Richard

Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth

Commentary:

During the fall, I was thinking there could be a barnburner between Smith and Cumberbatch (with Garfield as potential spoiler). That’s not how it’s played out as the Fresh Prince has been crowned the king in all preceding shows. I expect the sweep to continue.

PREDICTED WINNER:

Will Smith, King Richard

Runner-Up:

Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog

Best Supporting Actress

Nominees:

Jessie Buckley, The Lost Daughter

Ariana DeBose, West Side Story

Judi Dench, Belfast

Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog

Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard

Commentary:

Buckley and Dench were surprising inclusions, but there won’t be any shocks with the winner. DeBose has run the table and she should represent Story‘s lone victory.

PREDICTED WINNER:

Ariana DeBose, West Side Story

Runner-Up:

Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog

Best Supporting Actor

Nominees:

Ciaran Hinds, Belfast

Troy Kotsur, CODA

Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog

J.K. Simmons, Being the Ricardos

Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog

Commentary: 

Despite its quartet of performers getting nominations, Dog is likely to produce Oscars for none of them. Smit-McPhee received the Golden Globe but it’s been all Kotsur since. This is the race where I’m most confident of a CODA moment.

PREDICTED WINNER:

Troy Kotsur, CODA

Runner-Up:

Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog 

Best Original Screenplay

Nominees:

Belfast

Don’t Look Up

King Richard

Licorice Pizza

The Worst Person in the World

Commentary:

Good luck with this one! The Writer’s Guild threw everyone for a loop last weekend when Don’t Look Up won over Licorice Pizza (Belfast was not eligible). I just don’t envision the Academy honoring Up. With a Belfast or Pizza victory, they would bestowing first ever Oscars to Kenneth Branagh and Paul Thomas Anderson respectively. With the Globe and Critics Choice going to Belfast, it has my vote (though it’s close).

PREDICTED WINNER:

Belfast

Runner-Up:

Licorice Pizza

Best Adapted Screenplay

Nominees

CODA

Drive My Car

Dune

The Lost Daughter

The Power of the Dog 

Commentary:

CODA‘s BAFTA win kickstarted its momentum. Even if Dog is Best Picture, CODA could still take this. On the other hand, I think there’s a better chance Best Pic and Adapted Screenplay match so I’m rolling with the Dog with no degree of confidence whatsoever.

PREDICTED WINNER:

The Power of the Dog

Runner-Up:

CODA

Best Animated Feature

Nominees:

Encanto

Flee

Luca

The Mitchells vs. the Machines

Raya and the Last Dragon

Commentary:

I’m tempted to pick a Mitchells upset, but it’s dangerous to pick against Disney and Encanto is the frontrunner.

PREDICTED WINNER:

Encanto

Runner-Up:

The Mitchells vs. the Machines

Best International Feature Film

Nominees:

Drive My Car

Flee

The Hand of God

Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom

The Worst Person in the World

Commentary:

This is unquestionably one of the no brainer picks as Drive My Car has dominated the precursors and is the only nominee to also nab a Best Picture nod.

PREDICTED WINNER:

Drive My Car

Runner-Up:

The Worst Person in the World

Best Documentary Feature

Nominees:

Ascension

Attica

Flee

Summer of Soul

Writing with Fire

Commentary:

With nominations in Animated Feature, International Feature, and Doc – it sure seems like Flee should win one of them. It might stand the best chance in this competition, but Summer of Soul has been impressive in precursors and should continue the streak.

PREDICTED WINNER:

Summer of Soul

Runner-Up:

Flee

Best Cinematography

Nominees:

Dune

Nightmare Alley

The Power of the Dog

The Tragedy of Macbeth

West Side Story

Commentary: 

This might be the tech race where Dog is successful. I’m not predicting it though and (get used to hearing this) think Dune emerges.

PREDICTED WINNER:

Dune

Runner-Up:

The Power of the Dog

Best Costume Design

Nominees:

Cruella

Cyrano

Dune

Nightmare Alley

West Side Story

Commentary:

Cruella has killed it the preceding competitions. Dune, if it crushes all techs, could take it but I’m going with the former.

PREDICTED WINNER:

Cruella

Runner-Up:

Dune

Best Film Editing

Nominees:

Don’t Look Up

Dune

King Richard

The Power of the Dog

tick, tick… Boom!

Commentary:

Don’t sleep on King Richard which was bestowed the EDDIE award. I still think this is Dune‘s to lose.

PREDICTED WINNER:

Dune

Runner-Up:

King Richard

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Nominees:

Coming 2 America

Cruella

Dune

The Eyes of Tammy Faye

House of Gucci

Commentary:

Gucci could fashion a 1 for 1 victory but Tammy Faye has taken some precursors.

PREDICTED WINNER:

The Eyes of Tammy Faye

Runner-Up:

House of Gucci

Best Original Score

Nominees:

Don’t Look Up

Dune

Encanto

Parallel Mothers

The Power of the Dog

Commentary:

Like Cinematography, this is between Dog and Dune. Like Cinematography, I’m choosing the latter.

PREDICTED WINNER:

Dune

Runner-Up:

The Power of the Dog

Best Original Song

Nominees:

“Be Alive” from King Richard

“Dos Oruguitas” from Encanto

“Down to Joy” from Belfast

“No Time to Die” from No Time to Die

“Somehow You Do” from Four Good Days

Commentary:

Diane Warren gets her 13th nomination with “Somehow” and somehow she’s never won. That will continue. The smart money is on the 007 theme song from Billie Eilish. Yet I’m going with a minor upset with the Disney tune.

PREDICTED WINNER:

“Dos Oruguitas” from Encanto

Runner-Up:

“No Time to Die” from No Time to Die

Best Production Design

Nominees:

Dune

Nightmare Alley

The Power of the Dog

The Tragedy of Macbeth

West Side Story

Commentary:

For the last three categories, I could just say Dune and be done with it. In fact, I think I will…

PREDICTED WINNER:

Dune

Runner-Up:

West Side Story

Best Sound

Nominees:

Belfast

Dune

No Time to Die

The Power of the Dog

West Side Story

Commentary:

See Production Design

PREDICTED WINNER:

Dune

Runner-Up:

West Side Story

Best Visual Effects

Nominees:

Dune

Free Guy

No Time to Die

Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings

Spider-Man: No Way Home

Commentary:

See Production Design

PREDICTED WINNER:

Dune

Runner-Up:

There isn’t one… that’s how I’m confident I am that Dune takes it.

And so, ladies and gents, that means I’m predicting that these movies win these numbers of Oscars:

6 Wins

Dune

3 Wins

The Power of the Dog

2 Wins

Encanto, The Eyes of Tammy Faye

1 Win

Belfast, CODA, Cruella, Drive My Car, King Richard, Summer of Soul, West Side Story

Make sure to check out the blog post ceremony!

PGA: The Rise of CODA

When it comes to the Producers Guild of America awards, there’s a 14/21 match between their best picture and the Academy’s in the 21st century. The two-thirds ratio is 3/5 in the past five years. In 2016, La La Land took PGA over the Oscar selection of Moonlight. For 2019, PGA went with 1917 while the big show went with Parasite. Other 21st century examples: The Big Short won PGA in 2015 (Oscar: Spotlight). For 2006, Little Miss Sunshine got the PGA prize while The Departed took Oscar.

The PGA’s for 2021 occurred last night and it’s another feather in the cap for CODA. Sian Heder’s coming-of-age drama built upon its recent SAG ensemble victory  to triumph here. If there was any doubt before, CODA has unquestionably positioned itself as the alternate to The Power of the Dog winning Best Picture at the Oscars. Not Belfast. Not King Richard or Dune. This is a two-horse race between Dog and CODA and they both have important precursor hardware. No matter which one grabs the gold, it will be the first BP win for a streamer (Netflix for Dog and Apple TV for CODA).

Jane Campion’s direction of Dog won the Director Guild of America (DGA) prize this week and that’s a reliable Academy precursor. She’s almost certain to be the Oscar winner (CODA‘s Sian Heder isn’t nominated). In fact, CODA only has three nominations overall: Picture, Supporting Actor (Troy Kotsur), and Adapted Screenplay. It didn’t seem feasible until recently, but it could legitimately go 3 for 3.

Having said that, I wouldn’t dream of counting Dog out. It’s the Globe and BAFTA recipient. The precursor bonafides for it are just as impressive as CODA‘s. Even a week ago, however, I would’ve said Dog had about a 90% chance to be the Oscar BP. Now… well, it’s considerably less and we’ll see what I predict when I make my final picks on Wednesday.

In the Animated Feature and Documentary races at PGA, the respective winners were Encanto and Summer of Soul and they maintain their status as Academy favorites.

Oscars 2021: The Case of Kodi Smit-McPhee

Kodi Smit-McPhee’s performance in Jane Campion’s The Power of the Dog is the fifth and final Case Of post for the Supporting Actor contenders. If you missed the others, you can access them here:

Oscars 2021: The Case of Ciaran Hinds

Oscars 2021: The Case of Troy Kotsur

Oscars 2021: The Case of Jesse Plemons

Oscars 2021: The Case of J.K. Simmons

The Case for Kodi Smit-McPhee:

The 25-year-old Aussie picked up numerous critics prizes for his acclaimed role as well as the Golden Globe. Of the four actors nominated for Power (with Jesse Plemons in the same category), Smit-McPhee has received the most precursors and stands the best shot.

The Case Against Kodi Smit-McPhee:

Troy Kotsur. Simply put, the CODA costar has all the momentum after winning the SAG, Critics Choice, and BAFTA.

Previous Nominations: 

None

The Verdict:

Smit-McPhee is definitely the runner-up, but Kotsur is appearing much stronger after the double weekend wins at Critics Choice and BAFTA. Dog appears poised for major victories, but it’s looking less and less like this will be one of them.

And that concludes all 35 of my Case Of posts! It’s been fun. Stay tuned for my final Oscar winner predictions next week…