Tag: Tom Ford

Todd’s Weekly Oscar Predictions: December 29th Edition

We have reached my final Oscar predictions post of 2016! There will be likely be four more posts: 3 Thursday editions (January 5, 12, 19) and a final one on Monday, January 23rd before the nominations are revealed on Tuesday, January 24th.

Per usual, I’m listing 20 Best Picture possibilities and ten in all the other categories.

Let’s get to it, shall we?

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees

1. La La Land (PR: 1)

2. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 3)

3. Moonlight (PR: 2)

4. Fences (PR: 6)

5. Lion (PR: 4)

6. Silence (PR: 5)

7. Arrival (PR: 7)

8. Hidden Figures (PR: 9)

9. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 8)

Other Possibilities

10. Hell or High Water (PR: 10)

11. Loving (PR: 11)

12. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 14)

13. Sully (PR: 12)

14. Jackie (PR: 13)

15. 20th Century Women (PR: 15)

16. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 17)

17. Patriots Day (PR: 16)

18. The Jungle Book (PR: 18)

19. Captain Fantastic (PR: 19)

20. Zootopia (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Gold

Best Director

Predicted Nominees

1. Damien Chazelle, La La Land (PR: 1)

2. Barry Jenkins, Moonlight (PR: 2)

3. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 3)

4. Martin Scorsese, Silence (PR: 4)

5. Garth Davis, Lion (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities

6. Denis Villeneueve, Arrival (PR: 5)

7. Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 7)

8. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 8)

9. David Mackenzie, Hell or High Water (PR: 9)

10. Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 10)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees

1. Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 1)

2. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 2)

3. Ryan Gosling, La La Land (PR: 3)

4. Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 4)

5. Joel Edgerton, Loving (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities

6. Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic (PR: 6)

7. Tom Hanks, Sully (PR: 5)

8. Michael Keaton, The Founder (PR: 8)

9. Andrew Garfield, Silence (PR: 10)

10. Adam Driver, Paterson (PR: 9)

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees

1. Emma Stone, La La Land (PR: 1)

2. Natalie Portman, Jackie (PR: 2)

3. Amy Adams, Arrival (PR: 3)

4. Annette Bening, 20th Century Women (PR: 4)

5. Meryl Streep. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities

6. Isabelle Huppert, Elle (PR: 7)

7. Ruth Negga, Loving (PR: 5)

8. Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane (PR: 8)

9. Emily Blunt, The Girl on the Train (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Hailee Steinfeld, The Edge of Seventeen

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees

1. Mahershala Ali, Moonlight (PR: 1)

2. Dev Patel, Lion (PR: 2)

3. Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water (PR: 4)

4. Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 3)

5. Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities

6. Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 7)

7. Ben Foster, Hell or High Water (PR: 6)

8. Issey Ogata, Silence (PR: 8)

9. Mykelti Williamson, Fences (PR: 9)

10. Kevin Costner, Hidden Figures (PR: 10)

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees

1. Viola Davis, Fences (PR: 1)

2. Naomie Harris, Moonlight (PR: 2)

3. Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 3)

4. Nicole Kidman, Lion (PR: 4)

5. Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities

6. Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women (PR: 7)

7. Helen Mirren, Eye in the Sky (PR: 8)

8. Janelle Monae, Hidden Figures (PR: 6)

9. Felicity Jones, A Monster Calls (PR: 10)

10. Molly Shannon, Other People (PR: 9)

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees

1. Moonlight (PR: 1)

2. Lion (PR: 3)

3. Fences (PR: 2)

4. Arrival (PR: 4)

5. Silence (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities

6. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 7)

7. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 6)

8. Loving (PR: 9)

9. Hidden Figures (PR: 8)

10. Sully (PR: 10)

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees

1. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 1)

2. La La Land (PR: 2)

3. Hell or High Water (PR: 3)

4. Captain Fantastic (PR: 4)

5. 20th Century Women (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities

6. The Lobster (PR: 6)

7. Jackie (PR: 7)

8. Toni Erdmann (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Zootopia (PR: 8)

10. I, Daniel Blake (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Eye in the Sky

Florence Foster Jenkins

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees

1. Zootopia (PR: 1)

2. Kubo and the Two Strings (PR: 2)

3. Moana (PR: 3)

4. The Red Turtle (PR: 4)

5. My Life as a Zucchini (PR: 6)

Other Possibilties

6. Finding Dory (PR: 5)

7. The Little Prince (PR: 7)

8. April and the Extraordinary World (PR: 8)

9. Your Name (PR: 10)

10. Sausage Party (PR: 9)

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees

1. I Am Not Your Negro (PR: 1)

2. O.J.: Made in America (PR: 3)

3. 13th (PR: 2)

4. Gleason (PR: 5)

5. Life, Animated (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities

6. Cameraperson (PR: 4)

7. Fire at Sea (PR: 7)

8. The Eagle Huntress (PR: 8)

9. The Ivory Game (PR: 10)

10. Weiner (PR: 9)

Best Foreign Language Film

Predicted Nominees

1. Toni Erdmann (PR: 1)

2. The Salesman (PR: 2)

3. Land of Mine (PR: 3)

4. A Man Called Ove (PR: 5)

5. The King’s Choice (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities

6. My Life as a Zucchini (PR: 4)

7. Paradise (PR: 8)

8. Tanna (PR: 7)

9. It’s Only the End of the World (PR: 9)

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees

1. La La Land (PR: 1)

2. Moonlight (PR: 2)

3. Silence (PR: 3)

4. Arrival (PR: 4)

5. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities

6. Lion (PR: 5)

7. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 6)

8. Jackie (PR: 8)

9. The Jungle Book (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

Hell or High Water

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees

1. Jackie (PR: 1)

2. La La Land (PR: 2)

3. Allied (PR: 4)

4. Love & Friendship (PR: 3)

5. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities

6. Silence (PR: 8)

7. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (PR: 7)

8. Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 9)

9. Live by Night (PR: 6)

10. Alice Through the Looking Glass (PR: Not Ranked)

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees

1. La La Land (PR: 1)

2. Moonlight (PR: 2)

3. Arrival (PR: 3)

4. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 4)

5. Silence (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities

6. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 10)

7. Lion (PR: 5)

8. Hell or High Water (PR: 8)

9. Sully (PR: 7)

10. Jackie (PR: 9)

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees

1. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 1)

2. Star Trek Beyond (PR: 2)

3. Deadpool (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities

4. Suicide Squad (PR: 3)

5. A Man Called Ove (PR: 7)

6. The Dressmaker (PR: 5)

7. Hail, Caesar! (PR: 6)

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees

1. La La Land (PR: 1)

2. Lion (PR: 4)

3. Moonlight (PR: 2)

4. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 3)

5. Jackie (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities

6. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 5)

7. Hidden Figures (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 7)

9. The BFG (PR: 9)

10. The Jungle Book (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

Moana

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees

1. “City of Stars” from La La Land (PR: 1)

2. “How Far I’ll Go” from Moana (PR: 2)

3. “Audition (The Fools Who Dream)” from La La Land (PR: 4)

4. “Drive It Like You Stole It” from Sing Street (PR: 8)

5. “Runnin” from Hidden Figures (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities

6. “Letters to the Free” from 13th (PR: 3)

7. “Can’t Stop the Feeling!” from Trolls (PR: 7)

8. “The Rules Don’t Apply” from Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 6)

9. “The Great Beyond” from Sausage Party (PR: 10)

10. “I’m Still Here” from Miss Sharon Jones

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees

1. La La Land (PR: 1)

2. Jackie (PR: 2)

3. Arrival (PR: 3)

4. Silence (PR: 4)

5. Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 9)

Other Possibilities

6. Allied (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 5)

8. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (PR: 7)

9. Live by Night (PR: 6)

10. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

The Jungle Book

Best Sound Editing

Predicted Nominees

1. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 1)

2. La La Land (PR: 3)

3. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 2)

4. Sully (PR: 4)

5. Deepwater Horizon (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities

6. Arrival (PR: 7)

7. Patriots Day (PR: 8)

8. Allied (PR: Not Ranked)

9. The Jungle Book (PR: 5)

10. Captain America: Civil War (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Deadpool

Doctor Strange

Best Sound Mixing

Predicted Nominees

1. La La Land (PR: 1)

2. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 2)

3. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 3)

4. Arrival (PR: 5)

5. Deepwater Horizon (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities

6. Sully (PR: 7)

7. Allied (PR: 8)

8. Patriots Day (PR: 9)

9. The Jungle Book (PR: 6)

10. Deadpool (PR: 10)

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees

1. The Jungle Book (PR: 1)

2. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 2)

3. Arrival (PR: 3)

4. Doctor Strange (PR: 4)

5. The BFG (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities

6. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (PR: 5)

7. Captain America: Civil War (PR: 8)

8. Kubo and the Two Strings (PR: 7)

9. Passengers (PR: 10)

10. Deepwater Horizon (PR: 9)

That leaves us with the following nomination breakdown:

14 Nominations

La La Land

8 Nominations

Moonlight, Arrival

6 Nominations

Manchester by the Sea, Lion, Silence

5 Nominations

Hacksaw Ridge

4 Nominations

Fences, Jackie, Florence Foster Jenkins

3 Nominations

Hidden Figures, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

2 Nominations

20th Century Women, Hell or High Water, Nocturnal Animals, Moana, Deepwater Horizon

1 Nomination

Loving, Captain Fantastic, Zootopia, Kubo and the Two Strings, The Red Turtle, My Life as a Zucchini, I Am Not Your Negro, O.J.: Made in America, 13th, Gleason, Life, Animated, Toni Erdmann, The Salesman, Land of Mine, A Man Called Ove, The King’s Choice, Allied, Love & Friendship, Star Trek Beyond, Deadpool, Sing Street, Rules Don’t Apply, Sully, The Jungle Book, Doctor Strange, The BFG.

That’ll do it for now. See ya with the predictions next year!

 

Nocturnal Animals Movie Review

Tom Ford’s Nocturnal Animals is centered on a woman living in a fancy world surrounded by her own boredom and regret at certain life choices. The film is an often fascinating mash-up of Hitchcock, a little De Palma inspired Hitchcock, and most surprisingly, a West Texas crime tale that looks and feels like this year’s earlier Hell or High Water. We also have a more conventional tale of a romance gone astray and the emotions involved with that. It’s a concoction that sometimes is a little messy, a tad campy at moments, veers in tone shifts, and is also directed a fashion designer who seems to know exactly what he wishes to fashion.

L.A. art gallery owner Susan Morrow (Amy Adams) is living a wealthy life in an unhappy marriage and a career she’s grown to believe is purposeless. One day, she receives a manuscript. It’s from her ex-husband Edward (Jake Gyllenhaal) that she was only married to for a couple years around college. The novel grabs her. It’s the aforementioned High Water looking story of a remarried Edward on a West Texas road trip with his wife and daughter when they are terrorized by bad guys led by a disheveled and effectively menacing Aaron Taylor-Johnson. Their encounter takes a dark and tragic turn and soon Edward is teaming up with a ranger (Michael Shannon, in a terrific performance) to deal with its aftermath.

The story cuts back and forth between the actions of Susan’s ex-flame’s West Texas narrative (is it real or not?) and her unhappy life on the West Coast. We also witness the courtship of them in college. This juxtaposition creates an often dream like quality (a little David Lynch thrown in for good measure) and it’s rather intoxicating. We basically get to know everything we need to know about Susan’s character in a great short scene with Laura Linney as her debutante mom. Other key characters and their motivations don’t become clear until later.

Nocturnal Animals looks gorgeous as you might expect from a designer that Jay-Z made a song about. The cinematography is stunning and the musical score is often reminiscent of something we’d hear in an old Hitch pic or perhaps De Palma homage. There are moments that recall Nicolas Winding Refn’s The Neon Demon in plot had that movie actually succeeded. Tom Ford wears his influences proudly and unabashedly in his sophomore effort. It’s anything but boring.

***1/2 (out of four)

Todd’s Weekly Oscar Predictions: December 22nd Edition

We are moving closer and closer to Oscar nominations being out and there’s plenty of precursor action happening, etc…

Some of the categories, including Best Foreign Language Film (with its list whittled down to nine), Makeup and Hairstyling (seven possibles) and Visual Effects (ten possibilities). All in all, this last predictions posts before Christmas gives my take on where all the races stand as things (sort of) become a bit clearer.

Let’s get to it, shall we?

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees

1. La La Land (Previous Ranking: 1)

2. Moonlight (PR: 2)

3. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 3)

4. Lion (PR: 6)

5. Silence (PR: 4)

6. Fences (PR: 5)

7. Arrival (PR: 7)

8. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 8)

9. Hidden Figures (PR: 9)

Other Possibilities

10. Hell or High Water (PR: 10)

11. Loving (PR: 11)

12. Sully (PR: 13)

13. Jackie (PR: 12)

14. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 14)

15. 20th Century Women (PR: 15)

16. Patriots Day (PR: 16)

17. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 17)

18. The Jungle Book (PR: 19)

19. Captain Fantastic (PR: Not Ranked)

20. Gold (PR: 20)

Dropped Out:

Live by Night

Best Director

Predicted Nominees

1. Damien Chazelle, La La Land (PR: 1)

2. Barry Jenkins, Moonlight (PR: 2)

3. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 3)

4. Martin Scorsese, Silence (PR: 4)

5. Denis Villeneuve, Arrival (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities

6. Garth Davis, Lion (PR: 8)

7. Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 6)

8. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 7)

9. David Mackenzie, Hell or High Water (PR: 9)

10. Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Jeff Nichols, Loving

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees

1. Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 1)

2. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 2)

3. Ryan Gosling, La La Land (PR: 3)

4. Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 4)

5. Tom Hanks, Sully (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities

6. Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic (PR: 7)

7. Joel Edgerton, Loving (PR: 6)

8. Michael Keaton, The Founder (PR: 8)

9. Adam Driver, Paterson (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Andrew Garfield, Silence (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Matthew McConaughey, Gold

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees

1. Emma Stone, La La Land (PR: 1)

2. Natalie Portman, Jackie (PR: 2)

3. Amy Adams, Arrival (PR: 4)

4. Annette Bening, 20th Century Women (PR: 3)

5. Ruth Negga, Loving (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities

6. Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 6)

7. Isabelle Huppert, Elle (PR: 5)

8. Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane (PR: 8)

9. Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures (PR: 9)

10. Hailee Steinfeld, The Edge of Seventeen (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Rebecca Hall, Christine

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees

1. Mahershala Ali, Moonlight (PR: 1)

2. Dev Patel, Lion (PR: 2)

3. Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 3)

4. Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water (PR: 4)

5. Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities

6. Ben Foster, Hell or High Water (PR: 10)

7. Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 6)

8. Issey Ogata, Silence (PR: 8)

9. Mykelti Williamson, Fences (PR: 7)

10. Kevin Costner, Hidden Figures (PR: 9)

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees

1. Viola Davis, Fences (PR: 1)

2. Naomie Harris, Moonlight (PR: 2)

3. Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 3)

4. Nicole Kidman, Lion (PR: 4)

5. Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities

6. Janelle Monae, Hidden Figures (PR: 8)

7. Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women (PR: 6)

8. Helen Mirren, Eye in the Sky (PR: 7)

9. Molly Shannon, Other People (PR: 10)

10. Felicity Jones, A Monster Calls (PR: 9)

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees

1. Moonlight (PR: 1)

2. Fences (PR: 2)

3. Lion (PR: 3)

4. Arrival (PR: 5)

5. Silence (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities

6. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 6)

7. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 7)

8. Hidden Figures (PR: 9)

9. Loving (PR: 8)

10. Sully (PR: 10)

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees

1. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 1)

2. La La Land (PR: 2)

3. Hell or High Water (PR: 3)

4. Captain Fantastic (PR: 4)

5. 20th Century Women (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities

6. The Lobster (PR: 6)

7. Jackie (PR: 7)

8. Zootopia (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Eye in the Sky (PR: 8)

10. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

I, Daniel Blake

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees

1. Zootopia (PR: 1)

2. Kubo and the Two Strings (PR: 2)

3. Moana (PR: 3)

4. The Red Turtle (PR: 4)

5. Finding Dory (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities

6. My Life as a Zucchini (PR: 7)

7. The Little Prince (PR: 6)

8. April and the Extraordinary World (PR: 8)

9. Sausage Party (PR: 10)

10. Your Name (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Trolls

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees

1. I Am Not Your Negro (PR: 2)

2. 13th (PR: 1)

3. O.J.: Made in America (PR: 3)

4. Cameraperson (PR: 6)

5. Gleason (PR: 4)

Other Possibilties

6. Life, Animated (PR: 5)

7. Fire at Sea (PR: 9)

8. The Eagle Huntress (PR: 8)

9. Weiner (PR: 7)

10. The Ivory Game (PR: 10)

Best Foreign Language Film

Predicted Nominees

1. Toni Erdmann (PR: 1)

2. The Salesman (PR: 3)

3. Land of Mine (PR: 4)

4. My Life as a Zucchini (PR: Not Ranked)

5. A Man Called Ove (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities

6. The King’s Choice (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Tanna (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Paradise (PR: Not Ranked)

9. It’s the Only the End of the World (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Elle

Neruda

The Happiest Day in the Life of Olli Maki

Julieta

Ma’Rosa

The Ardennes

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees

1. La La Land (PR: 1)

2. Moonlight (PR: 2)

3. Silence (PR: 3)

4. Arrival (PR: 4)

5. Lion (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities

6. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 9)

7. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 6)

8. Jackie (PR: 5)

9. Hell or High Water (PR: 8)

10. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Live by Night

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees

1. Jackie (PR: 1)

2. La La Land (PR: 2)

3. Love &  Friendship (PR: 4)

4. Allied (PR: 3)

5. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities

6. Live by Night (PR: 6)

7. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (PR: 5)

8. Silence (PR: 8)

9. Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 9)

10. Hidden Figures (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Fences

Best Editing

Predicted Nominees

1. La La Land (PR: 1)

2. Moonlight (PR: 2)

3. Arrival (PR: 4)

4. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 5)

5. Lion (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities

6. Silence (PR: 3)

7. Sully (PR: 6)

8. Hell or High Water (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Jackie (PR: 10)

10. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 8)

Dropped Out:

Fences

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees

1. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 7)

2. Star Trek Beyond (PR: 2)

3. Suicide Squad (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities

4. Deadpool (PR: 5)

5. The Dressmaker (PR: Not Ranked)

6. Hail, Caesar! (PR: Not Ranked)

7. A Man Called Ove (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Jackie

Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

Hacksaw Ridge

Love & Friendship

Doctor Strange

Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

Nocturnal Animals

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees

1. La La Land (PR: 1)

2. Moonlight (PR: 7)

3. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 9)

4. Lion (PR: 2)

5. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities

6. Jackie (PR: 3)

7. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Moana (PR: 4)

9. The BFG (PR: 10)

10. The Jungle Book (PR: 8)

Dropped Out:

Nocturnal Animals

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees

1. “City of Stars” from La La Land (PR: 3)

2. “We Know the Way” from Moana (PR: 2)

3. “Letters to the Free” from 13th (PR: 4)

4. “Audition (The Fools Who Dream)” from La La Land (PR: 1)

5. “Runnin” from Hidden Figures (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities

6. “Rules Don’t Apply” from Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 5)

7. “Can’t Stop The Feeling!” from Trolls (PR: 6)

8. “Drive It Like You Stole It” from Sing Street (PR: 7)

9. “I’m Still Here” from Miss Sharon Jones (PR: 10)

10. “The Great Beyond” from Sausage Party (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

“Dancing with Your Shadow” from Po

“I See Victory” from Hidden Figures

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees

1. La La Land (PR: 1)

2. Jackie (PR: 2)

3. Arrival (PR: 4)

4. Silence (PR: 3)

5. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 8)

Other Possibilities

6. Live by Night (PR: 5)

7. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (PR: Not Ranked)

8. The Jungle Book (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 9)

10. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Fences

Allied

Love & Friendship

Best Sound Editing

Predicted Nominees

1. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 1)

2. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 3)

3. La La Land (PR: 2)

4. Sully (PR: 4)

5. The Jungle Book (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities

6. Deepwater Horizon (PR: 6)

7. Arrival (PR: 7)

8. Patriots Day (PR: 8)

9. Deadpool (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Doctor Strange (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Passengers

Allied

Best Sound Mixing

Predicted Nominees

1. La La Land (PR: 1)

2. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 2)

3. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 3)

4. Deepwater Horizon (PR: 4)

5. Arrival (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities

6. The Jungle Book (PR: 6)

7. Sully (PR: 7)

8. Allied (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Patriots Day (PR: 8)

10. Deadpool (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Passengers

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees

1. The Jungle Book (PR: 1)

2. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 2)

3. Arrival (PR: 3)

4. Doctor Strange (PR: 4)

5. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities

6. The BFG (PR: 6)

7. Kubo and the Two Strings (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Captain America: Civil War (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Deepwater Horizon (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Passengers (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Sully

Star Trek Beyond

Deadpool

A Monster Calls

That gives you a current nomination breakdown as follows:

14 Nominations

La La Land

9 Nominations

Arrival

8 Nominations

Moonlight

7 Nominations

Lion

6 Nominations

Manchester by the Sea, Hacksaw Ridge

5 Nominations

Silence

4 Nominations

Fences, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

3 Nominations

Jackie, Hidden Figures, Florence Foster Jenkins

2 Nominations

Sully, 20th Century Women, Hell or High Water, Moana, 13th, The Jungle Book

1 Nomination

Loving, Nocturnal Animals, Captain Fantastic, Zootopia, Kubo and the Two Strings, The Red Turtle, Finding Dory, I Am Not Your Negro, O.J.: Made in America, Cameraperson, Gleason, Toni Erdmann, The Salesman, Land of Mine, My Life as a Zucchini, A Man Called Ove, Love & Friendship, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them, Allied, Star Trek Beyond, Suicide Squad, Deepwater Horizon, Doctor Strange. 

And there you have it! I’ll be back at it again next Thursday with my final predictions of the year!

2016 Golden Globe Nominations Reaction

Well, the Golden Globe nominations are out and there are some genuine surprises to be had.

Not surprising? Damien Chazelle’s La La Land (the current front runner in the Oscar Best Picture derby) leading all nominees with seven with Barry Jenkins’s Moonlight close behind with six.

Surprising? A total shut-out for Martin Scorsese’s Silence and a better than expected showing for Tom Ford’s Nocturnal Animals. 

All in all, my performance guessing the nominees was pretty weak. 64% total in the ten major categories predicted.

Let’s break them down one by one, shall we?

Best Picture (Drama)

My Performance 2/5

Analysis: Ouch. This race threw me for a loop as only Manchester by the Sea and Moonlight were nominated among my five. The three that weren’t: the aforementioned Silence, Arrival, and Fences. In their place: Mel Gibson’s Hacksaw Ridge, Garth Davis’s Lion, and David Mackenzie’s Hell or High Water. Truthfully, none of their inclusions are entirely surprising. Having said that, if I thought I’d get three picks wrong, I probably would have thought Pablo Larrain’s Jackie would get in. This race now appears to be between Manchester and Moonlight.

Best Picture (Musical or Comedy)

My Performance: 3/5

Well… a little better. The three I correctly predicted were La La Land, Florence Foster Jenkins, and 20th Century Women. Warren Beatty’s Rules Don’t Apply and The Lobster didn’t make it in in favor of Deadpool (!) and Sing Street. Bottom line here? La La is going to win this category.

Best Director

My Performance: 3/5

Chazelle, Jenkins, and Lonergan were got in as I said they would, but Martin Scorsese and Denis Villeneuve (Arrival) did not. In their place are Mel Gibson for Hacksaw and the rather surprising inclusion of Tom Ford for Nocturnal Animals, especially considering the movie wasn’t nominated in Drama.

Best Actor (Drama)

My Performance: 4/5

The only incorrect estimate here is that Viggo Mortensen got in for Captain Fantastic instead of Tom Hanks for Sully. Ironically, I did predict Viggo would be nominated in Musical/Comedy here (I thought Fantastic would fall under that genre). The other nominees that I did get: Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea), Joel Edgerton (Loving), Andrew Garfield (Hacksaw Ridge), and Denzel Washington (Fences).

Best Actress (Drama)

My Performance: 5/5

Hey, the one and only race where I went 100%! The nominees: Amy Adams (Arrival), Jessica Chastain (Miss Sloane), Isabelle Huppert (Elle), Ruth Negga (Loving), and Natalie Portman (Jackie).

Best Actor (Musical or Comedy)

My Performance: 3/5

To me, the surprise is that the Hollywood Foreign Press didn’t nominate the legendary Warren Beatty for Rules Don’t Apply. As mentioned before, I put Mortensen in here, but he ended up getting nominated for Drama. The three I got right: Colin Farrell (The Lobster), Ryan Gosling (La La Land), and Hugh Grant (Florence Foster Jenkins). The two I didn’t: the pretty shocking nod for Jonah Hill in War Dogs and much deserved love for Ryan Reynolds in Deadpool.

Best Actress (Musical or Comedy)

My Performance: 3/5

Annette Bening (20th Century Women), Emma Stone (La La Land), and Meryl Streep (Florence Foster Jenkins) were all very easy picks to make and they got in. The other two were tougher. I went with Kate Beckinsale in Love & Friendship and Susan Sarandon in The Meddler, but it was Lily Collins (Rules Don’t Apply) and Hailee Steinfeld (The Edge of Seventeen) who made the cut.

Best Supporting Actor

My Performance: 2/5

Ouch again. When it comes to Oscar predictin’, this has been the most unpredictable category of them all and that showed with my GG’s performance here. I correctly named Mahershala Ali (Moonlight) and Dev Patel in Lion. My picks of Lucas Hedges (Manchester), Issey Ogata (the totally ignored Silence), and Michael Shannon (Nocturnal Animals) didn’t come to fruition. Instead, we got the surprise nod for Shannon’s Nocturnal costar Aaron Taylor-Johnson along with Jeff Bridges (Hell or High Water) and Simon Helberg (Florence Foster Jenkins).

Best Supporting Actress

My Performance: 4/5

Correct picks were Viola Davis in Fences, Naomie Harris for Moonlight, Nicole Kidman in Lion, and Michelle Williams for Manchester. It was Octavia Spencer in Hidden Figures that I didn’t get (I said Greta Gerwig in 20th Century Women instead). Spencer’s inclusion is a small surprise, as some of the Oscar chatter has had Janelle Monae more likely to get in for Figures than her costar.

Best Screenplay

My Performance: 3/5

La La Land, Manchester, and Moonlight are in as predicted. No love for Arrival and Silence. In their place? Hell or High Water and Nocturnal Animals.

And there you have it! I’ll have a post up with final predictions on the winners shortly before Jimmy Fallon hosts the proceedings in January…

Todd’s Weekly Oscar Predictions: October 20th Edition

It’s Thursday, ladies and gents, and that means my weely Oscar predictions are in! There’s been some serious changes to the predictions, a new film that’s qualified itself for consideration, and some category shifting that’s occurred within the past week.

So – perhaps some explanation on where I see the state of the races in each of the eight major categories is required this week. My synopsis of said races are for your enjoyment below…

Let’s get to it!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees

1. La La Land (Previous Ranking: 1)

2. Silence (PR: 2)

3. Fences (PR: 3)

4. Lion (PR: 6)

5. Jackie (PR: 5)

6. Moonlight (PR: 7)

7. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 6)

8. Arrival (PR: 9)

9. Hidden Figures (PR: 12)

Other Possibilities

10. Loving (PR: 10)

11. 20th Century Women (PR: 11)

12. Hell or High Water (PR: 14)

13. Live by Night (PR: 13)

14. Sully (PR: 15)

15. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 4)

16. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 17)

17. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 18)

18. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: Not Ranked)

19. The Jungle Book (PR: 20)

20. 13th (PR: 16)

21. Allied (PR: 21)

22. Gold (PR: 22)

23. Rules Don’t Apply (PR: Not Ranked)

24. Passengers (PR: 23)

25. The Founder (PR: 24)

Dropped Out:

Miss Sloane

I, Daniel Blake

Where The Race Stands…

With La La Land as the current front runner and there’s no doubt about it. The conventional wisdom for the last several weeks is that there were three fall entries that could potentially give it a run for its money: Martin Scorsese’s Silence, Denzel Washington’s Fences, and Ang Lee’s Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk. That dynamic shifted dramatically when Halftime opened to middling reviews when it screened at the New York Film Festival this weekend. The film has now dropped 11 spots and out of my predicted nominees and it’s unlikely to make its way back in. Silence and Fences now seem the only likely pictures to stand in the way of La La. Meanwhile, Mel Gibson’s Hacksaw Ridge makes a serious jump into the possibilities – from not ranked a week ago to #18.  I’ve also found room for the Warren Beatty pic Rules Don’t Apply, which has yet to screen. Others on the list of possibilities that have yet to be reviewed (meaning they could jump up when they do or fall out completely): Hidden Figures (which I have in the ninth spot at the moment for a nod), Live by Night, Passengers, Allied, Gold, The Founder and others not currently in the top 25 such as Miss Sloane and Collateral Beauty. 

Best Director

Predicted Nominees

1. Damien Chazelle, La La Land (PR: 1)

2. Martin Scorsese, Silence (PR: 3)

3. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 4)

4. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 6)

5. Pablo Larrain, Jackie (PR: 5)

Other Possibilties

6. Denis Villeneuve, Arrival (PR: 7)

7. Garth Davis, Lion (PR: 8)

8. Barry Jenkins, Moonlight (PR: 9)

9. Jeff Nichols, Loving (PR: 10)

10. Ang Lee, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 2)

11. Mike Mills, 20th Century Women (PR: 12)

12. Ben Affleck, Live by Night (PR: 11)

13. Theodore Melfi, Hidden Figures (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Clint Eastwood, Sully (PR: 13)

15. Ana DuVernay, 13th (PR: 14)

Dropped Out:

Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals

Where the Race Stands…

With two-time Oscar winner Ang Lee falling 8 spots after the NYFF Halftime reaction. Chazelle remains at #1 as he’s been for weeks as we await Scorsese and Washington’s films. I’m growing more confident that Lonergan manages to squeeze into the top five.

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees

1. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 1)

2. Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 2)

3. Ryan Gosling, La La Land (PR: 3)

4. Tom Hanks, Sully (PR: 4)

5. Joel Edgerton, Loving (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities

6. Andrew Garfield, Silence (PR: 8)

7. Dev Patel, Lion (PR: 6)

8. Warren Beatty, Rules Don’t Apply (PR: Not Ranked in Lead Actor)

9. Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Michael Keaton, The Founder (PR: 9)

11. Jake Gyllenhaal, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 10)

12. Matthew McConaughey, Gold (PR: 11)

13. Will Smith, Collateral Beauty (PR: 12)

14. Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic (PR: 15)

15. Miles Teller, Bleed for This (PR: 13)

Dropped Out:

Joe Alwyn, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk

Ben Affleck, Live by Night

Where the Race Stands…

Up in the air until we see Denzel’s work in Fences, which could potentially become the immediate front runner as I’m currently estimating. Casey Affleck is getting raves, too and has held steady at #2 for weeks. Andrew Garfield is on the outside looking in for now, but could get in for either Silence or Hacksaw Ridge. There’s also late breaking news that Taylor Hackford’s The Comedian was given a December release for Oscar consideration and perhaps that’ll bode well for its star, Robert De Niro (though I’m not prepared to include him in the mix quite yet). And there’s last week’s reveal that Warren Beatty will compete in this category instead of Supporting, as was previously thought.

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees

1. Emma Stone, La La Land (PR: 1)

2. Natalie Portman, Jackie (PR: 2)

3. Viola Davis, Fences (PR: 3)

4. Annette Bening, 20th Century Women (PR: 4)

5. Ruth Negga, Loving (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities

6. Amy Adams, Arrival (PR: 7)

7. Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 6)

8. Isabelle Huppert, Elle (PR: 9)

9. Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane (PR: 8)

10. Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures (PR: 12)

11. Rebecca Hall, Christine (PR: 10)

12. Marion Cotillard, Allied (PR: 14)

13. Amy Adams, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 11)

14. Emily Blunt, The Girl on the Train (PR: 13)

15. Jennifer Lawrence, Passengers (PR: 15)

Where the Race Stands…

As one of the most competitive Best Actress races in history. Both Stone and Portman are serious contenders for the win and we haven’t even seen heard the word on Davis’s work in Fences. They appear to be the trio that could win. In any other year, Bening’s acclaimed performance in Women might earn her some overdue recognition, but probably not this year. The fifth slot is much trickier and I almost picked Adams (for Arrival and not Nocturnal Animals) over Negga. Just to show you the competitiveness, Streep in most years would be a shoo-in for her 20th (!) nomination for Jenkins, but could be left out. Others to keep an eye on: Chastain and a dark horse nominee like Hall.

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees

1. Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 1)

2. Liam Neeson, Silence (PR: 2)

3. Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 3)

4. Stephen Henderson, Fences (PR: 4)

5. Mahershala Ali, Moonlight (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities

6. Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 10)

7. Aaron Eckhart, Sully (PR: 6)

8. Peter Sarsgaard, Jackie (PR: 8)

9. Sunny Pawar, Lion (PR: 9)

10. Mykelti Williamson, Fences (PR: 11)

11. Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water (PR: 12)

12. Alan Rickman, Eye in the Sky (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Aaron Eckhart, Bleed for This (PR: 13)

14. Kevin Costner, Hidden Figures (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Ben Foster, Hell or High Water (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Warren Beatty, Rules Don’t Apply (moved to Lead Actor list)

Steve Martin, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk

Timothy Spall, Denial

Where the Race Stands…

Absolutely and 100% percent wide open… so much so that I’m not confident any of my current picks make the final cut. Some would argue Grant is in, but I’m not totally convinced. Shannon is such a well-respected actor that he’s probably in, but reaction has been very mixed on Nocturnal Animals. Neeson and Henderson’s work has yet to be seen. Bottom line: this particular category could change a lot over the next few weeks.

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees

1. Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 1)

2. Naomie Harris, Moonlight (PR: 2)

3. Nicole Kidman, Lion (PR: 3)

4. Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women (PR: 4)

5. Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures (PR: 10)

Other Possibilities

6. Molly Shannon, Other People (PR: 7)

7. Elle Fanning, 20th Century Women (PR: 5)

8. Margo Martindale, The Hollars (PR: 8)

9. Helen Mirren, Eye in the Sky (PR: 9)

10. Janelle Monae, Hidden Figures (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Kristen Stewart, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 6)

12. Felicity Jones, A Monster Calls (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Janelle Monae, Moonlight (PR: 13)

14. Laura Linney, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 11)

15. Bryce Dallas Howard, Gold (PR: 12)

Dropped Out:

Sienna Miller, Live by Night

Gugu Mbatha-Raw, Miss Sloane

Where The Race Stands…

Seemingly with Williams and Harris as the two front runners and it’s been that way for a while after Manchester and Moonlight, respectively, hit the festival circuit. Perhaps one of the two actresses from the not yet screened Hidden Figures (Spencer and Monae, who also got positive notices for Moonlight) could make a play. Otherwise, this looks like a two-way competition at the moment.

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees

1. La La Land (PR: 1)

2. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 2)

3. Jackie (PR: 3)

4. Moonlight (PR: 4)

5. 20th Century Women (PR: 6)

Other Possibilties

6. Loving (PR: 7)

7. Hell or High Water (PR: 5)

8. Toni Erdmann (PR: 9)

9. Miss Sloane (PR: 8)

10. I, Daniel Blake (PR: 14)

11. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 11)

12. The Lobster (PR: 12)

13. Allied (PR: 10)

14. Gold (PR: 13)

15. Rules Don’t Apply (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Captain Fantastic

Where the Race Stands…

As a race that La La Land may not automatically win over Manchester by the Sea. Jackie and Moonlight are also looking solid for nominations with a fifth slot that I keep changing up between 20th Century Women, Loving, and Hell or High Water.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees

1. Fences (PR: 1)

2. Silence (PR: 2)

3. Lion (PR: 3)

4. Hidden Figures (PR: 7)

5. Arrival (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities

6. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 5)

7. Love & Friendship (PR: 11)

8. Live by Night (PR: 8)

9. Elle (PR: 10)

10. Sully (PR: 9)

11. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 4)

12. The Jungle Book (PR: 14)

13. Indignation (PR: 12)

14. Certain Women (PR: 13)

15. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Denial

Where the Race Stands…

In a waiting pattern as Fences and Silence have yet to screen. They could both be heavy hitters. If they both falter, look to Lion. 

And that does it for this week, folks! Until next time…

Todd’s Weekly Oscar Predictions: October 13th Edition

It’s Thursday and that means my weekly Oscar predictions are in! As with previous weeks, I’m ranking the top 25 most likely Best Picture nominees along with top 15 in seven other big races. Come November – those numbers will dwindle to 20 and 10, respectively. You can see where each nominee has risen or fallen or stayed the same from one week ago.

Some developments… Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk is expected to screen this weekend so the buzz will be out (meaning its Oscar picture will become more clear soon). Loving took a hit this week and is out of my Best Picture predictions for the first time (enter Arrival). And the poor debut of The Birth of a Nation has knocked it out of the top 25 altogether.

**I’ll note again that just because I rank a picture, director, or actor at #1 doesn’t mean I’m predicting them to win. It just means their first on chances of a nomination. I won’t get into predicting winners until after the nominations are released.

And with that… let’s get to it!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees

1. La La Land (Previous Ranking: 1)

2. Silence (PR: 3)

3. Fences (PR: 2)

4. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 5)

5. Jackie (PR: 9)

6. Lion (PR: 4)

7. Moonlight (PR: 7)

8. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 6)

9. Arrival (PR: 11)

Other Possibilities

10. Loving (PR: 8)

11. 20th Century Women (PR: 19)

12. Hidden Figures (PR: 10)

13. Live by Night (PR: 13)

14. Hell or High Water (PR: 15)

15. Sully (PR: 12)

16. 13th (PR: 16)

17. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 14)

18. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 20)

19. Miss Sloane (PR: 24)

20. The Jungle Book (PR: 18)

21. Allied (PR: 23)

22. Gold (PR: 22)

23. Passengers (PR: Not Ranked)

24. The Founder (PR: 21)

25. I, Daniel Blake (PR: 25)

Dropped Out:

The Birth of a Nation

Best Director

Predicted Nominees

1. Damien Chazelle, La La Land (PR: 1)

2. Ang Lee, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 3)

3. Martin Scorsese, Silence (PR: 2)

4. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 4)

5. Pablo Larrain, Jackie (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities

6. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 5)

7. Denis Villeneuve, Arrival (PR: 9)

8. Garth Davis, Lion (PR: 7)

9. Barry Jenkins, Moonlight (PR: 8)

10. Jeff Nichols, Loving (PR: 10)

11. Ben Affleck, Live by Night (PR: 13)

12. Mike Mills, 20th Century Women (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Clint Eastwood, Sully (PR: 12)

14. Ana DuVernay, 13th (PR: 11)

15. Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 14)

Dropped Out:

Theodore Melfi, Hidden Figures

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees

1. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 1)

2. Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 2)

3. Ryan Gosling, La La Land (PR: 4)

4. Tom Hanks, Sully (PR: 3)

5. Joel Edgerton, Loving (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities

6. Dev Patel, Lion (PR: 7)

7. Joe Alwyn, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 6)

8. Andrew Garfield, Silence (PR: 10)

9. Michael Keaton, The Founder (PR: 8)

10. Jake Gyllenhaal, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 9)

11. Matthew McConaughey, Gold (PR: 11)

12. Will Smith, Collateral Beauty (PR: 14)

13. Miles Teller, Bleed for This (PR: 12)

14. Ben Affleck, Live by Night (PR: 13)

15. Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Nate Parker, The Birth of a Nation

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees

1. Emma Stone, La La Land (PR: 1)

2. Natalie Portman, Jackie (PR: 2)

3. Viola Davis, Fences (PR: 3)

4. Annette Bening, 20th Century Women (PR: 4)

5. Ruth Negga, Loving (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities

6. Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 6)

7. Amy Adams, Arrival (PR: 7)

8. Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane (PR: 8)

9. Isabelle Huppert, Elle (PR: 9)

10. Rebecca Hall, Christine (PR: 14)

11. Amy Adams, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 11)

12. Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures (PR: 10)

13. Emily Blunt, The Girl on the Train (PR: 13)

14. Marion Cotillard, Allied (PR: 12)

15. Jennifer Lawrence, Passengers (PR: 15)

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees

1. Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 2)

2. Liam Neeson, Silence (PR: 1)

3. Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 4)

4. Stephen Henderson, Fences (PR: 3)

5. Mahershala Ali, Moonlight (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities

6. Aaron Eckhart, Sully (PR: 5)

7. Warren Beatty, Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 8)

8. Peter Sarsgaard, Jackie (PR: 9)

9. Sunny Pawar, Lion (PR: 7)

10. Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 13)

11. Mykelti Williamson, Fences (PR: 10)

12. Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water (PR: 14)

13. Aaron Eckhart, Bleed for This (PR: 12)

14. Steve Martin, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 11)

15. Timothy Spall, Denial (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Alan Rickman, Eye in the Sky

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees

1. Michelle Williams, Manchster by the Sea (PR: 1)

2. Naomie Harris, Moonlight (PR: 2)

3. Nicole Kidman, Lion (PR: 3)

4. Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women (PR: 4)

5. Elle Fanning, 20th Century Women (PR: 10)

Other Possibilities

6. Kristen Stewart, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 6)

7. Molly Shannon, Other People (PR: 11)

8. Margo Martindale, The Hollars (PR: 7)

9. Helen Mirren, Eye in the Sky (PR: 8)

10. Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures (PR: 9)

11. Laura Linney, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 5)

12. Bryce Dallas Howard, Gold (PR: 12)

13. Janelle Monae, Moonlight (PR: 13)

14. Sienna Miller, Live by Night (Not Ranked)

15. Guga Mbatha Raw, Miss Sloane (PR: 14)

Dropped Out:

Felicity Jones, A Monster Calls

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees

1. La La Land (PR: 1)

2. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 2)

3. Jackie (PR: 4)

4. Moonlight (PR: 3)

5. Hell or High Water (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities

6. 20th Century Women (PR: 7)

7. Loving (PR: 5)

8. Miss Sloane (PR: 11)

9. Toni Erdmann (PR: 15)

10. Allied (PR: 14)

11. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 9)

12. The Lobster (PR: 10)

13. Gold (PR: 13)

14. I, Daniel Blake (PR: 8)

15. Captain Fantastic (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Zootopia

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees

1. Fences (PR: 1)

2. Silence (PR: 2)

3. Lion (PR: 3)

4. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 5)

5. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities

6. Arrival (PR: 8)

7. Hidden Figures (PR: 7)

8. Live by Night (PR: 9)

9. Sully (PR: 6)

10. Elle (PR: 11)

11. Love & Friendship (PR: 12)

12. Indignation (PR: 10)

13. Certain Women (PR: Not Ranked)

14. The Jungle Book (PR: 13)

15. Denial (PR: 15)

Dropped Out:

A Monster Calls

Whew! And there you have it… I’ll be back at it next Thursday!

Todd’s Weekly Oscar Predictions: October 6th Edition

It’s Thursday and that means I’m back at it with my weekly Oscar predictions in the eight major categories. So what’s transpired over the past seven days? Quite a bit! The Girl on the Train, which opens tomorrow, was screened with very mixed critical reaction. It had been at the lower end (#24 last week) of possible Best Picture nominees, but it now appears its chances have been completely derailed. Don’t expect it to appear on the list again. I do still have Emily Blunt as a long-shot Actress possibility, but Haley Bennett’s work in Supporting Actress and an Adapted Screenplay nomination have also fallen off.

We also got a trailer for Pablo Larrain’s Jackie, which could be a contender in several races. And we received official word that Ben Affleck’s Prohibition era crime pic Live by Night will be released in limited fashion in late December, qualifying it for the Academy’s consideration.

And there was the debut at the New York Film Festival of Ana DuVernay’s race relations documentary 13th. It’s important to note that no doc has been nominated for Best Picture, so it’s got a steep hill to climb. Yet it’s possible and joins the contenders of hopefuls this week.

*A final note before we get to predictions. It is my plan throughout October to keep with listing 25 Best Picture possibilities and 15 in the other races. By the first week of November, this will shift to 20 for Best Picture and ten in the others.

And with that, this week’s predictions:

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. La La Land (Previous Ranking: 1)

2. Fences (PR: 2)

3. Silence (PR: 3)

4. Lion (PR: 5)

5. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 4)

6. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 6)

7. Moonlight (PR: 7)

8. Loving (PR: 8)

9. Jackie (PR: 10)

Other Possibilities

10. Hidden Figures (PR: 9)

11. Arrival (PR: 11)

12. Sully (PR: 12)

13. Live by Night (PR: 15)

14. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 13)

15. Hell or High Water (PR: 14)

16. 13th (PR: Not Ranked)

17. The Birth of a Nation (PR: 16)

18. The Jungle Book (PR: 19)

19. 20th Century Women (PR: 18)

20. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 17)

21. The Founder (PR: 22)

22. Gold (PR: 21)

23. Allied (PR: 23)

24. Miss Sloane (PR: Not Ranked)

25. I, Daniel Blake (PR: 25)

Dropped Out:

Passengers

The Girl on the Train

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Damien Chazelle, La La Land (PR: 1)

2. Martin Scorsese, Silence (PR: 3)

3. Ang Lee, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 2)

4. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 4)

5. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities

6. Pablo Larrain, Jackie (PR: 9)

7. Garth Davis, Lion (PR: 6)

8. Barry Jenkins, Moonlight (PR: 7)

9. Denis Villenueve, Arrival (PR: 10)

10. Jeff Nichols, Loving (PR: 8)

11. Ana DuVernay, 13th (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Clint Eastwood, Sully (PR: 13)

13. Ben Affleck, Live by Night (PR: 15)

14. Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 12)

15. Theodore Melfi, Hidden Figures (PR: 11)

Dropped Out:

Nate Parker, The Birth of a Nation

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 1)

2. Casey Affleck, Manchster by the Sea (PR: 2)

3. Tom Hanks, Sully (PR: 3)

4. Ryan Gosling, La La Land (PR: 4)

5. Joel Edgerton, Loving (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Joe Alwyn, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 6)

7. Dev Patel, Lion (PR: 7)

8. Michael Keaton, The Founder (PR: 8)

9. Jake Gyllenhaal, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 11)

10. Andrew Garfield, Silence (PR: 9)

11. Matthew McConaughey, Gold (PR: 12)

12. Miles Teller, Bleed for This (PR: 10)

13. Ben Affleck, Live by Night (PR: 15)

14. Will Smith, Collateral Beauty (PR: 13)

15. Nate Parker, The Birth of a Nation (PR: 14)

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees

1. Emma Stone, La La Land (PR: 1)

2. Natalie Portman, Jackie (PR: 2)

3. Viola Davis, Fences (PR: 3)

4. Annette Bening, 20th Century Women (PR: 5)

5. Ruth Negga, Loving (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities

6. Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 7)

7. Amy Adams, Arrival (PR: 6)

8. Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane (PR: 12)

9. Isabelle Huppert, Elle (PR: 8)

10. Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures (PR: 9)

11. Amy Adams, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 10)

12. Marion Cotillard, Allied (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Emily Blunt, The Girl on the Train (PR: 11)

14. Rebecca Hall, Christine (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Jennifer Lawrence, Passengers (PR: 13)

Dropped Out:

Rachel Weisz, Denial

Sally Field, My Name is Doris

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Liam Neeson, Silence (PR: 1)

2. Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 2)

3. Stephen Henderson, Fences (PR: 3)

4. Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 4)

5. Aaron Eckhart, Sully (PR: 9)

Other Possibilities:

6. Mahershala Ali, Moonlight (PR: 5)

7. Sunny Pawar, Lion (PR: 6)

8. Warren Beatty, Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 10)

9. Peter Sarsgaard, Jackie (PR: 14)

10. Mykelti Williamson, Fences (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Steve Martin, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 8)

12. Aaron Eckhart, Bleed for This (PR: 7)

13. Lucas Hedges, Manchster by the Sea (PR: 11)

14. Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water (PR: 13)

15. Alan Rickman, Eye in the Sky (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Timothy Spall, Denial

Trevante Rhodes, Moonlight

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 1)

2. Naomie Harris, Moonlight (PR: 2)

3. Nicole Kidman, Lion (PR: 3)

4. Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women (PR: 11)

5. Laura Linney, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities

6. Kristen Stewart, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 5)

7. Margo Martindale, The Hollars (PR: 7)

8. Helen Mirren, Eye in the Sky (PR: 10)

9. Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures (PR: 6)

10. Elle Fanning, 20th Century Women (PR: 8)

11. Molly Shannon, Other People (PR: 9)

12. Bryce Dallas Howard, Gold (PR: 13)

13. Janelle Monae, Moonlight (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Gugu Mbatha-Raw, Miss Sloane (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Felicity Jones, A Monster Calls (PR: 15)

Dropped Out:

Haley Bennett, The Girl on the Train

Sienna Miller, Live by Night

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. La Land Land (PR: 1)

2. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 2)

3. Moonlight (PR: 3)

4. Jackie (PR: 4)

5. Loving (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities

6. Hell or High Water (PR: 6)

7. 20th Century Women (PR: 8)

8. I, Daniel Blake (PR: 9)

9. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 7)

10. The Lobster (PR: 10)

11. Miss Sloane (PR: 14)

12. Zootopia (PR: 11)

13. Gold (PR: 13)

14. Allied (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Toni Erdmann (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Birth of a Nation

Passengers

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Fences (PR: 1)

2. Silence (PR: 2)

3. Lion (PR: 4)

4. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 5)

5. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities

6. Sully (PR: 9)

7. Hidden Figures (PR: 6)

8. Arrival (PR: 7)

9. Live by Night (PR: 13)

10. Indignation (PR: 11)

11. Elle (PR: 8)

12. Love & Friendship (PR: 10)

13. The Jungle Book (PR: 14)

14. A Monster Calls (PR: 15)

15. Denial (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Girl on the Train

And there you have it, folks! Until next time…

Todd’s Weekly Oscar Predictions: September 29th Edition

It’s my weekly Thursday Oscar predictions in the eight major categories coming your way and there has been some news since last Thursday. It was officially confirmed that Martin Scorsese’s passion project Silence will be released in December in time for awards consideration (maybe we’ll finally get a trailer soon!). There were trailers released for some high-profile contenders: Denzel Washington’s Fences and Mike Mills’s 20th Century Women. 

As we do every week, I’ll rank my top 25 contenders for Best Picture along with top 15 for the directing, acting, and screenplay races (you can also see the movement from the previous week’s ranking to now).

Let’s get to it!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees

1. La La Land (Previous Ranking: 1)

2. Fences (PR: 2)

3. Silence  (PR: 4)

4. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 3)

5. Lion (PR: 7)

6. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 5)

7. Moonlight (PR: 6)

8. Loving (PR: 8)

9. Hidden Figures (PR: 9)

Other Possibilities:

10. Jackie (PR: 11)

11. Arrival (PR: 12)

12. Sully (PR: 13)

13. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 10)

14. Hell or High Water (PR: 16)

15. Live by Night (PR: 14)

16. The Birth of a Nation (PR: 15)

17. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 19)

18. 20th Century Women (PR: 17)

19. The Jungle Book (PR: 21)

20. Passengers (PR: 25)

21. Gold (PR: Not Ranked)

22. The Founder (PR: 22)

23. Allied (PR: 18)

24. The Girl on the Train (PR: Not Ranked)

25. I, Daniel Blake (PR: 23)

Dropped Out:

Collateral Beauty

Hacksaw Ridge

Best Director

Predicted Nominees

1. Damien Chazelle, La La Land (PR: 1)

2. Ang Lee, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 2)

3. Martin Scorsese, Silence (PR: 3)

4. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 4)

5. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Garth Davis, Lion (PR: 8)

7. Barry Jenkins, Moonlight (PR: 6)

8. Jeff Nichols, Loving (PR: 7)

9. Pablo Larrain, Jackie (PR: 11)

10. Denis Villenueve, Arrival (PR: 10)

11. Theodore Melfi, Hidden Figures (PR: 12)

12. Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 9)

13. Clint Eastwood, Sully (PR: 13)

14. Nate Parker, The Birth of a Nation (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Ben Affleck, Live by Night (PR: 14)

Dropped Out:

Robert Zemeckis, Allied

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees

1. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 2)

2. Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 1)

3. Tom Hanks, Sully (PR: 5)

4. Ryan Gosling, La La Land (PR: 3)

5. Joel Edgerton, Loving (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Joe Alwyn, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 6)

7. Dev Patel, Lion (PR: 7)

8. Michael Keaton, The Founder (PR: 9)

9. Andrew Garfield, Silence (PR: 10)

10. Miles Teller, Bleed for This (PR: 12)

11. Jake Gyllenhaal, Nocturnal Animals (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Matthew McConaughey, Gold (PR: 11)

13. Will Smith, Collateral Beauty (PR: 8)

14. Nate Parker, The Birth of a Nation (PR: 13)

15. Ben Affleck, Live by Night (PR: 15)

Dropped Out:

Dave Johns, I, Daniel Blake 

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees

1. Emma Stone, La La Land (PR: 1)

2. Natalie Portman, Jackie (PR: 2)

3. Viola Davis, Fences (PR: 3)

4. Ruth Negga, Loving (PR: 4)

5. Annette Bening, 20th Century Women (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Amy Adams, Arrival (PR: 6)

7. Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 7)

8. Isabelle Huppert, Elle (PR: 9)

9. Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures (PR: 8)

10. Amy Adams, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 10)

11. Emily Blunt, The Girl on the Train (PR: 12)

12. Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane (PR: 11)

13. Jennifer Lawrence, Passengers (PR: 13)

14. Rachel Weisz, Denial (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Sally Field, My Name is Doris (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Rooney Mara, Una

Marion Cotillard, Allied

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees

1. Liam Neeson, Silence (PR: 1)

2. Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 2)

3. Stephen Henderson, Fences (PR: 3)

4. Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 7)

5. Mahershala Ali, Moonlight (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sunny Pawar, Lion (PR: 6)

7. Aaron Eckhart, Bleed for This (PR: 8)

8. Steve Martin, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 5)

9. Aaron Eckhart, Sully (PR: 10)

10. Warren Beatty, Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 11)

11. Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 9)

12. Timothy Spall, Denial (PR: 13)

13. Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water (PR: 12)

14. Peter Sarsgaard, Jackie (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Trevante Rhodes, Moonlight (PR: 14)

Dropped Out:

Kevin Costner, Hidden Figures

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees

1. Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 1)

2. Naomie Harris, Moonlight (PR: 2)

3. Nicole Kidman, Lion (PR: 4)

4. Laura Linney, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 5)

5. Kristen Stewart, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures (PR: 6)

7. Margo Martindale, The Hollars (PR: 7)

8. Elle Fanning, 20th Century Women (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Molly Shannon, Other People (PR: 11)

10. Helen Mirren, Eye in the Sky (PR: 8)

11. Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women (PR: 9)

12. Haley Bennett, The Girl on the Train (PR: 13)

13. Bryce Dallas Howard, Gold (PR: 10)

14. Sienna Miller, Live by Night (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Felicity Jones, A Monster Calls (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Helen Mirren, Collateral Beauty

Aja Naomi King, The Birth of a Nation

Julianne Moore, Maggie’s Plan

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees

1. La Land Land (PR: 1)

2. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 2)

3. Moonlight (PR: 3)

4. Jackie (PR: 4)

5. Loving (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Hell or High Water (PR: 6)

7. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 9)

8. 20th Century Women (PR: 7)

9. I, Daniel Blake (PR: 13)

10. The Lobster (PR: 8)

11. Zootopia (PR: 11)

12. The Birth of a Nation (PR: 10)

13. Gold (PR: 12)

14. Miss Sloane (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Passengers (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Collateral Beauty

Allied

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees

1. Fences (PR: 1)

2. Silence (PR: 3)

3. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 2)

4. Lion (PR: 4)

5. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Hidden Figures (PR: 6)

7. Arrival (PR: 7)

8. Elle (PR: 11)

9. Sully (PR: 8)

10. Love & Friendship (PR: 12)

11. Indignation (PR: 13)

12. The Girl on the Train (PR: 10)

13. Live by Night (PR: 9)

14. The Jungle Book (PR: 15)

15. A Monster Calls (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Denial

And that’ll do it for the weekly Oscar predictions! Check back next week, folks…

Todd’s Weekly Oscar Predictions: September 22nd Edition

It’s Thursday and that means my weekly Oscar predictions are here in the eight major categories. As with previous weeks, I’m listing the Top 25 possibilities for Best Picture and Top 15 for the other races, while showing the titles and performers I believe will currently be nominated. Plus – you can also track the movement of the rankings from the previous week to now.

Let’s get to it, shall we?

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees

1. La La Land (Previous Ranking: 1)

2. Fences (PR: 4)

3. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 2)

4. Silence (PR: 3)

5. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 9)

6. Moonlight (PR: 5)

7. Lion (PR: 8)

8. Loving (PR: 6)

9. Hidden Figures (PR: 11)

Other Possibilities:

10. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 7)

11. Jackie (PR: 12)

12. Arrival (PR: 10)

13. Sully (PR: 14)

14. Live by Night (PR: 19)

15. The Birth of a Nation (PR: 13)

16. Hell or High Water (PR: 15)

17. 20th Century Women (PR: 16)

18. Allied (PR: 17)

19. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: Not Ranked)

20. Collateral Beauty (PR: 22)

21. The Jungle Book (PR: 25)

22. The Founder (PR: 20)

23. I, Daniel Blake (PR: 24)

24. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 23)

25. Passengers (PR: 18)

Dropped Out:

The Girl on the Train

Best Director

Predicted Nominees

1. Damien Chazelle, La La Land (PR: 1)

2. Ang Lee, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 2)

3. Martin Scorsese, Silence (PR: 3)

4. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 4)

5. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Barry Jenkins, Moonlight (PR: 5)

7. Jeff Nichols, Loving (PR: 7)

8. Garth Davis, Lion (PR: 10)

9. Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 8)

10. Denis Villenueve, Arrival (PR: 9)

11. Pablo Larrain, Jackie (PR: 11)

12. Theodore Melfi, Hidden Figures (PR: 12)

13. Clint Eastwood, Sully (PR: 14)

14. Ben Affleck, Live by Night (15)

15. Robert Zemeckis, Allied (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Nate Parker, The Birth of a Nation

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees

1. Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 1)

2. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 2)

3. Ryan Gosling, La La Land (PR: 6)

4. Joel Edgerton, Loving (PR: 3)

5. Tom Hanks, Sully (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Joe Alwyn, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 5)

7. Dev Patel, Lion (PR: 7)

8. Will Smith, Collateral Beauty (PR: 12)

9. Michael Keaton, The Founder (PR: 8)

10. Andrew Garfield, Silence (PR: 14)

11. Matthew McConaughey, Gold (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Miles Teller, Bleed for This (PR: 15)

13. Nate Parker, The Birth of a Nation (PR: 10)

14. Dave Johns, I, Daniel Blake (PR: 13)

15. Ben Affleck, Live by Night (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Jake Gyllenhaal, Nocturnal Animals

Bryan Cranston, Wakefield

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees

1. Emma Stone, La La Land (PR: 1)

2. Natalie Portman, Jackie (PR: 2)

3. Viola Davis, Fences (PR: 3)

4. Ruth Negga, Loving (PR: 4)

5. Annette Bening, 20th Century Women (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Amy Adams, Arrival (PR: 9)

7. Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 8)

8. Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures (PR: 10)

9. Isabelle Huppert, Elle (PR: 7)

10. Amy Adams, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 5)

11. Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane (PR: 11)

12. Emily Blunt, The Girl on the Train (PR: 12)

13. Jennifer Lawrence, Passengers (PR: 13)

14. Rooney Mara, Una (PR: 14)

15. Marion Cotillard, Allied (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Sally Hawkins, Maudie

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees

1. Liam Neeson, Silence (PR: 2)

2. Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 1)

3. Stephen Henderson, Fences (PR: 5)

4. Mahershala Ali, Moonlight (PR: 3)

5. Steve Martin, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sunny Pawar, Lion (PR: 15)

7. Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 7)

8. Aaron Eckhart, Bleed for This (PR: 14)

9. Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 8)

10. Aaron Eckhart, Sully (PR: 6)

11. Warren Beatty, Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 11)

12. Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water (PR: 9)

13. Timothy Spall, Denial (PR: 10)

14. Trevante Rhodes, Moonlight (PR: 12)

15. Kevin Costner, Hidden Figures (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Bill Nighy, Their Finest

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees

1. Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 1)

2. Naomie Harris, Moonlight (PR: 2)

3. Kristen Stewart, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 3)

4. Nicole Kidman, Lion (PR: 5)

5. Laura Linney, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures (PR: 6)

7. Margo Martindale, The Hollars (PR: 10)

8. Helen Mirren, Eye in the Sky (PR: 7)

9. Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women (PR: 8)

10. Bryce Dallas Howard, Gold (PR: 9)

11. Molly Shannon, Other People (PR: 12)

12. Helen Mirren, Collateral Beauty (PR: 15)

13. Haley Bennett, The Girl on the Train (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Aja Naomi King, The Birth of a Nation (PR: 11)

15. Julianne Moore, Maggie’s Plan (PR: 14)

Dropped Out:

Elle Fanning, 20th Century Women

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees

1. La La Land (PR: 1)

2. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 2)

3. Moonlight (PR: 3)

4. Jackie (PR: 5)

5. Loving (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Hell or High Water (PR: 7)

7. 20th Century Women (PR: 6)

8. The Lobster (PR: 8)

9. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 13)

10. The Birth of a Nation (PR: 9)

11. Zootopia (PR: 10)

12. Gold (PR: Not Ranked)

13. I, Daniel Blake (PR: 11)

14. Collateral Beauty (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Allied (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Rules Don’t Apply

Passengers

Miss Sloane

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. Fences (PR: 1)

2. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 2)

3. Silence (PR: 4)

4. Lion (PR: 5)

5. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Hidden Figures (PR: 7)

7. Arrival (PR: 6)

8. Sully (PR: 8)

9. Live by Night (PR: 12)

10. The Girl on the Train (PR: 9)

11. Elle (PR: 10)

12. Love and Friendship (PR: 11)

13. Indignation (PR: 15)

14. Denial (PR: 13)

15. The Jungle Book (PR: 14)

And that’ll do it for my Oscar predictions this week! Until next time…

 

 

Todd’s 2016 Weekly Oscar Predictions: September 15th Edition

It’s Thursday and that means my weekly Oscar predictions in the eight major categories are here for your reading pleasure!

The Toronto Film Festival has ferreted out some would-be contenders, most notably Ewan McGregor’s American Pastoral which debuted to lackluster reviews. I had it at #9 last week for a Best Picture and it’s nowhere to be seen in the Top 25 now.

As I’ll do every week, I’m listing 25 possibilities for Best Picture along with 15 for Director, the Acting Races, and the Screenplay categories. I’m also noting the movement in the rankings among the contenders and what and who has dropped out.

Let’s go to it:

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees

1) La Land Land (Previous Ranking: 1)

2) Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 2)

3) Silence (PR: 3)

4) Fences (PR: 4)

5) Moonlight (PR: 5)

6) Loving (PR: 6)

7) Nocturnal Animals (PR: 8)

8) Lion (PR: 11)

9) Manchester by the Sea (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

10) Arrival (PR: 13)

11) Hidden Figures (PR: 15)

12) Jackie (PR: 12)

13) The Birth of a Nation (PR: 10)

14) Sully (PR: 16)

15) Hell or High Water (PR: 18)

16) 20th Century Women (PR: 14)

17) Allied (PR: 19)

18) Passengers (PR: 17)

19) Live by Night (PR: 25)

20) The Founder (PR: 21)

21) The Girl on the Train (PR: Not Ranked)

22) Collateral Beauty (PR: 23)

23) Hacksaw Ridge (PR: Not Ranked)

24) I, Daniel Blake (PR: Not Ranked)

25) The Jungle Book (PR: 22)

DROPPED OUT:

American Pastoral, Moana, Gold

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1) Damien Chazelle, La La Land (PR: 1)

2) Ang Lee, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 2)

3) Martin Scorsese, Silence (PR: 3)

4) Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 5)

5) Barry Jenkins, Moonlight (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6) Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 4)

7) Jeff Nichols, Loving (PR: 7)

8) Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 8)

9) Denis Villenueve, Arrival (PR: 10)

10) Garth Davis, Lion (PR: 11)

11) Pablo Larrain, Jackie (PR: 14)

12) Theodore Melfi, Hidden Figures (PR: 13)

13) Nate Parker, The Birth of a Nation (PR: 9)

14) Clint Eastwood, Sully (PR: Not Ranked)

15) Ben Affleck, Live by Night (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Ewan McGregor, American Pastoral

Mike Mills, 20th Century Women

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1) Casey Affleck, Manchster by the Sea (PR: 2)

2) Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 1)

3) Joel Edgerton, Loving (PR: 3)

4) Tom Hanks, Sully (PR: 6)

5) Joe Alwyn, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6) Ryan Gosling, La La Land (PR: 8)

7) Dev Patel, Lion (PR: 9)

8) Michael Keaton, The Founder (PR: 4)

9) Jake Gyllenhaal, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 7)

10) Nate Parker, The Birth of a Nation (PR: 13)

11) Bryan Cranston, Wakefield (PR: 11)

12) Will Smith, Collateral Beauty (PR: Not Ranked)

13) Dave Johns, I, Daniel Blake (PR: Not Ranked)

14) Andrew Garfield, Silence (PR: 14)

15) Miles Teller, Bleed for This (PR: 15)

Dropped Out:

Trevante Rhodes, Moonlight

Ewan McGregor, American Pastoral

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1) Emma Stone, La La Land (PR: 1)

2) Natalie Portman, Jackie (PR: 3)

3) Viola Davis, Fences (PR: 2)

4) Ruth Negga, Loving (PR: 4)

5) Amy Adams, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6) Annette Bening, 20th Century Women (PR: 5)

7) Isabelle Huppert, Elle (PR: 7)

8) Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 8)

9) Amy Adams, Arrival (PR: 9)

10) Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures (PR: 11)

11) Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane (PR: 14)

12) Emily Blunt, The Girl on the Train (PR: 13)

13) Jennifer Lawrence, Passengers (PR: 12)

14) Rooney Mara, Una (PR: 10)

15) Sally Hawkins, Maudie (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Marion Cotillard, Allied

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1) Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 4)

2) Liam Neeson, Silence (PR: 2)

3) Mahershala Ali, Moonlight (PR: 3)

4) Steve Martin, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 1)

5) Stephen Henderson, Fences (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6) Aaron Eckhart, Sully (PR: 14)

7) Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 7)

8) Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 6)

9) Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water (PR: 15)

10) Timothy Spall, Denial (PR: 10)

11) Warren Beatty, Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 9)

12) Trevante Rhodes, Moonlight (PR: Not Ranked in Supporting)

13) Billy Nighy, Their Finest (PR: Not Ranked)

14) Aaron Eckhart, Bleed for This (PR: 8)

15) Sunny Pawar, Lion (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Billy Crudup, 20th Century Women

Vin Diesel, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk

John Legend, La La Land

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1) Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 1)

2) Naomie Harris, Moonlight (PR: 2)

3) Kristen Stewart, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 4)

4) Laura Linney, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 3)

5) Nicole Kidman, Lion (PR: 9)

Other Possibilities:

6) Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures (PR: 10)

7) Helen Mirren, Eye in the Sky (PR: Not Ranked)

8) Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women (PR: 7)

9) Bryce Dallas Howard, Gold (PR: 5)

10) Margo Martindale, The Hollars (PR: 14)

11) Aja Naomi King, The Birth of a Nation (PR: 8)

12) Molly Shannon, Other People (PR: Not Ranked)

13) Elle Fanning, 20th Century Women (PR: 12)

14) Julianne Moore, Maggie’s Plan (PR: 11)

15) Helen Mirren, Collateral Beauty (13)

Dropped Out:

Dakota Fanning, American Pastoral

Laura Dern, The Founder

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1) La La Land (PR: 3)

2) Manchester by the Sea (PR: 1)

3) Moonlight (PR: 2)

4) Loving (PR: 4)

5) Jackie (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6) 20th Century Women (PR: 6)

7) Hell or High Water (PR: 7)

8) The Lobster (PR: 8)

9) The Birth of a Nation (PR: 9)

10) Zootopia (PR: 11)

11) I, Daniel Blake (PR: Not Ranked)

12) Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 14)

13) Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: Not Ranked)

14) Passengers (PR: 13)

15) Miss Sloane (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Founder

Gold

Allied

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1) Fences (PR: 1)

2) Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 2)

3) Nocturnal Animals (PR: 3)

4) Silence (PR: 4)

5) Lion (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6) Arrival (PR: 8)

7) Hidden Figures (PR: 7)

8) Sully (PR: 12)

9) The Girl on the Train (PR: 10)

10) Elle (PR: 11)

11) Love & Friendship (PR: 9)

12) Live by Night (PR: 13)

13) Denial (PR: 14)

14) The Jungle Book (PR: 15)

15) Indignation (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

American Pastoral

And there you have it, Oscar watchers! I’ll be back with my weekly predictions on September 22nd…