Tag: Tom Ford

99th Academy Awards Predictions: May 6th Edition

My second helping of ranked Oscar predictions for next year’s 99th ceremony can be called the pre-Cannes estimates. That festival in the French Riviera kicks off May 12th and runs through May 23rd. It will be our first look at several potential contenders: Ryusuke Hamaguchi’s All of a Sudden, Pawel Pawlikowski’s Fatherland, Cristian Mungiu’s Fjord, Na Hong-jin’s Hope, James Gray’s Paper Tiger, and The Man I Love from Ira Sachs to name a few. Keep an eye on the blog for my individual posts exploring the viability of the screening pictures.

The Academy made some news of its own by announcing rule changes. The most significant is that actors can be nominated twice in the same category. There’s been recent examples of when this could have resulted in a performer getting two nods. I would say most recently that Sebastian Stan could have benefited. He was nominated in lead Actor for The Apprentice and a double shot was possible via A Different Man. Going back a ways, Kate Winslet won Best Actress in 2008 for The Reader and might have seen her name pop again for Revolutionary Road. In 2006, Kate’s Titanic mate Leonardo DiCaprio was in contention for Blood Diamond. He could have easily landed another shot via The Departed.

In International Feature Film, the criteria has always been that a submitting nation can choose just one entrant for consideration. While that rule holds, the Academy has added another path to get in. If a picture wins a qualifying international festival (such as Cannes, Berlin, Toronto, Sundance, Venice), it is now a contender. This would have helped Anatomy of a Fall in 2023 since France did not choose it as their representative picture, but it emerged victorious for the Palme d’Or at Cannes.

Since my last update in mid-April, Michael opened to gigantic box office and mediocre reviews. While the audience score on Rotten Tomatoes is high, critical griping could cripple its viability at the Oscars. However, I wouldn’t completely rule out the acclaimed work of Jaafar Jackson and Colman Domingo. Best Picture? Probably a bridge too far despite the gaudy numbers.

The Devil Wears Prada 2 also hit multiplexes. While Meryl Streep was a Best Actress nominee 20 years ago for the original, a second at-bat seems like a reach. The sequel could materialize, however, in Costume Design and/or Original Song where Lady Gaga has a track. Those categories won’t be forecasted until a few weeks down the line.

We also learned that Narnia: The Magician’s Nephew from Greta Gerwig will not be out (on Netflix) until 2027. I had it on the outside looking in at #11. It drops from contention this time around.

You can read all the speculation below and my next update will arrive as Cannes concludes!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)

3. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Digger (PR: 5) (E)

5. Fjord (PR: 6) (E)

6. No One Cares (PR: 6) (E)

7. Fatherland (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Dune: Part Three (PR: 10) (+2)

9. The Social Reckoning (PR: 9) (E)

10. All of a Sudden (PR: 7) (-3)

Other Possibilities:

11. Hope (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Cry to Heaven (PR: 16) (+4)

13. A Place in Hell (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Paper Tiger (PR: 21) (+7)

15. Werwulf (PR: 18) (+3)

16. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 23) (+7)

17. Josephine (PR: 17) (E)

18. Saturn Return (PR: 22) (+4)

19. The Entertainment System is Down (PR: 14) (-5)

20. Jack of Spades (PR: 24) (+4)

21. Being Heumann (PR: 15) (-6)

22. A Long Winter (PR: 13) (-9)

23. Behemoth! (PR: 25) (+2)

24. Michael (PR: 20) (-4)

25. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 19) (-6)

Dropped Out:

Narnia: The Magician’s Nephew

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Alejandro Gonzalez Iñárritu, Digger (PR: 2) (E)

3. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Cristian Mingiu, Fjord (PR: 3) (+1)

5. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Pawel Pawlikowski, Fatherland (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Jesse Eisenberg, No One Cares (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Na Hong-jin, Hope (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Tom Ford, Cry to Heaven (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Aaron Sorkin, The Social Reckoning (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Robert Eggers, Werwulf (PR: 14) (+1)

14. James Gray, Paper Tiger (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Greg Kwedar, Saturn Return (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Greta Gerwig, Narnia: The Magician’s Nephew

Ruben Östlund, The Entertainment System is Down

David Fincher, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Renate Reinsve, Fjord (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sandra Hüller, Fatherland (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Julianne Moore, No One Cares (PR: 3) (E)

4. Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Michelle Williams, A Place in Hell (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden (PR: 6) (E)

7. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Sandra Hüller, Rose (PR: 11) (+3)

9. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Sophie Okonedo, Clarissa (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Mason Reeves, Josephine (PR: 8) (-3)

12. Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 14) (+2)

13. Rachel Brosnahan, Saturn Return (PR: 13) (E)

14. Penélope Cruz, Bunker (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Lily Gladstone, The Memory Police (PR: 12) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Amy Adams, At the Sea

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Tom Cruise, Digger (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sebastian Stan, Fjord (PR: 4) (+1)

4. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Hanns Zischler, Fatherland (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Matt Damon, The Odyssey (PR: 6) (E)

7. Dominic Sessa, Tony (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Jaafar Jackson, Michael (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Nicholas Hoult, Cry to Heaven (PR: 9) (E)

10. John Turturro, The Only Living Pickpocket in New York (PR: 15) (+5)

11. Jeremy Allen White, The Social Reckoning (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Adam Driver, Paper Tiger (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Josh O’Connor, Jack of Spades (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Rami Malek, The Man I Love (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three (PR: 11) (-4)

Dropped Out:

Robert Aramayo, I Swear

Pedro Pascal, Behemoth!

Brad Pitt, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

Charles Melton, Saturn Return

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mariana di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Sandra Hüller, Digger (PR: 6) (+4)

3. Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (-2)

4. Halle Bailey, No One Cares (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Daisy Edgar-Jones, A Place in Hell (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Tao Okamato, All of a Sudden (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 8) (E)

9. Scarlett Johannson, Paper Tiger (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Lesley Manville, Jack of Spades (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Esmé Creed-Miles, Sense and Sensibility (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Kirsten Dunst, The Entertainment System is Down (PR: 12) (E)

13. Caitriona Balfe, A Long Winter (PR: 9) (-4)

14. Penélope Cruz, The Invite (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Gemma Chan, Josephine (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Wunmi Mosaku, The Social Reckoning

Frances McDormand, Jack of Spades

Elizabeth Debicki, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Paul Giamatti, No One Cares (PR: 1) (E)

2. John Goodman, Digger (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Robert Pattinson, The Odyssey (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning (PR: 6) (-1)

7. Colman Domingo, Michael (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Andrew Scott, A Place in Hell (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Tom Holland, The Odyssey (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Jesse Plemons, Digger (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Channing Tatum, Josephine (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Mark Ruffalo, Being Heumann (PR: 9) (-3)

13. David Oyelowo, Clarissa (PR: 13) (E)

14. Antonio Banderas, Tony (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Cry to Heaven (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Daniel Brühl, The Entertainment System is Down

Riz Ahmed, Digger

    99th Academy Awards Predictions: April 19th Edition

    Barely a month beyond the 98th edition of the Academy Awards, we have arrived at my first ranked predictions for the 99th ceremony. We begin with six major categories – Best Picture, Director, and the four acting derbies.

    I gave you my first ranked glimpses for the previous telecast around the same time last year in these same races. How did that impossibly early forecast turn out? I correctly called four of the eventual ten BP nominees with Hamnet, Marty Supreme, Sentimental Value, and Sinners. Winner One Battle After Another as well as Bugonia, F1, and Frankenstein were listed in Other Possibilities. So 80% of the BP contenders were identified with The Secret Agent and Train Dreams not being mentioned in April 2025.

    In Best Director, three of the five filmmakers were predicted: Ryan Coogler (Sinners), Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme), and Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value). Statue recipient Paul Thomas Anderson from One Battle and Chloé Zhao (Hamnet) were in Other Possibilities.

    As for Best Actress, Jessie Buckley (Hamnet) swept the season and was in my predicted quintet. So was Sentimental Value‘s Renate Reinsve while Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You) and Emma Stone (Bugonia) were in Other Possibilities. Only Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue) wasn’t listed. In Best Actor, Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme) was in my quintet. Three others – winner Michael B. Jordan (Sinners), Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another), and Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon) were Other Possibilities with Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent) as the sole thespian not identified.

    My projected Supporting Actress five rightly named Teyana Taylor (One Battle) with Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value) as a possibility. Fanning’s costar Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Wumni Mosaku (Sinners), and the victorious Amy Madigan (Weapons) were not found among my possibilities. In Supporting Actor, Stellan Skarsgård from Value was in my five with winner Sean Penn (One Battle) and Delroy Lindo (Sinners) as possibilities. Battle‘s Benicio del Toro and Frankenstein‘s Jacob Elordi were not to be found yet.

    Let’s get some caveats out of the way. Some of the performers listed in lead will end up in supporting and vice versa. As an example, I figured Paul Mescal (Hamnet) would go lead for that film last year, but he was slotted in supporting. He ended up not being nominated but likely came close. For instance in this year’s listings, I don’t know if Sam Rockwell will be lead or supporting for Wild Horse Nine but my hunch says the latter at press time. The distributor will eventually clear that up.

    We will see pictures push to 2027. When I did my initial projections a year ago for 2025, Michael and The Rivals of Amziah King were thought to be releases for that calendar frame. Both are being put out in ’26. I have Michael still as a potential nominee in some competitions. Not so at this time for Rivals.

    And now the most important forewarning. Some movies you find below will turn out to be non-contenders. My inaugural look at the 98th Oscars listed Luca Guadagnino’s After the Hunt at #1 in Best Picture, Director, Actress (Julia Roberts), #4 in Supporting Actress (Ayo Edebiri), and #2 in Supporting Actor (Andrew Garfield). After its Venice festival premiere, the mixed to negative reaction drastically changed its narrative. It ended up with zero nominations. My April 2025 #1’s in the supporting fields – Ariana Grande (Wicked: For Good) and Adam Sandler (Jay Kelly) – did not make final cut either.

    So take this speculation as what it is – speculative. The picture and Best Picture will become clearer in time. That said, a reminder that 80% of the BP nominees were mentioned a year ago in addition to 100% of the directors and 80% of the lead acting hopefuls could be found in the initial post. On the flip side, nearly all of my acting picks for a nomination are coming from projected BP nominees and the percentage probably won’t be quite that high.

    When Sinners came out last year, it was a box office juggernaut with widespread critical acclaim. Yet I wondered whether the spring release could mean it would fall by the wayside months down the line. That’s why I named it in Other Possibilities for Picture, Director, Actor, and Supporting Actor. What happened months down the line? A record-setting 16 nominations with Jordan winning Actor. I won’t make the same mistake with Project Hail Mary. It has been out for weeks and already looks like a strong contender in Picture, Director, Actor, and possibly Supporting Actress. Another note – it’s not often (or maybe ever) you see a performer mentioned four times. That’s the case at the moment with the busy Sandra Hüller who is a legit threat twice in lead Actress and supporting.

    You can expect these posts to hit the blog every couple of weeks until it becomes weekly. This should occur when festival season goes into overdrive in last summer/early fall.

    BEST PICTURE

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. The Odyssey

    2. Project Hail Mary

    3. Wild Horse Nine

    4. Digger

    5. Fjord

    6. No One Cares

    7. All of a Sudden

    8. Fatherland

    9. The Social Reckoning

    10. Dune: Part Three

    Other Possibilities:

    11. Narnia: The Magican’s Nephew

    12. A Place in Hell

    13. A Long Winter

    14. The Entertainment System is Down

    15. Being Heumann

    16. Cry to Heaven

    17. Josephine

    18. Werwulf

    19. The Adventures of Cliff Booth

    20. Michael

    21. Paper Tiger

    22. Saturn Return

    23. Sense and Sensibility

    24. Jack of Spades

    25. Behemoth!

    BEST DIRECTOR

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey

    2. Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Digger

    3. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary

    4. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine

    5. Cristian Mingiu, Fjord

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden

    7. Pawel Pawlikowski, Fatherland

    8. Jesse Eisenberg, No One Cares

    9. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three

    10. Greta Gerwig, Narnia: The Magician’s Nephew

    11. Ruben Östlund, The Entertainment System is Down

    12. Tom Ford, Cry to Heaven

    13. Aaron Sorkin, The Social Reckoning

    14. Robert Eggers, Werwulf

    15. David Fincher, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

    BEST ACTRESS

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Renate Reinsve, Fjord

    2. Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning

    3. Julianne Moore, No One Cares

    4. Sandra Hüller, Fatherland

    5. Michelle Williams, A Place in Hell

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden

    7. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann

    8. Mason Reeves, Josephine

    9. Sophie Okenedo, Clarissa

    10. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie

    11. Sandra Hüller, Rose

    12. Lily Gladstone, The Memory Police

    13. Rachel Brosnahan, Saturn Return

    14. Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility

    15. Amy Adams, At the Sea

    BEST ACTOR

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Tom Cruise, Digger

    2. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary

    3. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine

    4. Sebastian Stan, Fjord

    5. Hanns Zischler, Fatherland

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Matt Damon, The Odyssey

    7. Robert Aramayo, I Swear

    8. Dominic Sessa, Tony

    9. Nicholas Hoult, Cry to Heaven

    10. Jafaar Jackson, Michael

    11. Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three

    12. Pedro Pascal, Behemoth!

    13. Brad Pitt, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

    14. Charles Melton, Saturn Return

    15. John Turturro, The Only Pickpocket Living in New York

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine

    2. Mariana Di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine

    3. Halle Bailey, No One Cares

    4. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey

    5. Tao Okamoto, All of a Sudden

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Sandra Hüller, Digger

    7. Daisy Edgar-Jones, A Place in Hell

    8.. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary

    9. Caitriona Balfe, A Long Winter

    10. Scarlett Johansson, Paper Tiger

    11. Wunmi Mosaku, The Social Reckoning

    12. Kirsten Dunst, The Entertainment System is Down

    13. Gemma Chan, Josephine

    14. Frances McDormand, Jack of Spades

    15. Elizabeth Debicki, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Paul Giamatti, No One Cares

    2. John Goodman, Digger

    3. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine

    4. Colman Domingo, Michael

    5. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine

    7. Andrew Scott, A Place in Hell

    8. Tom Holland, The Odyssey

    9. Mark Ruffalo, Being Heumann

    10. D’Pharaoh Woon-A-Tai, A Long Winter

    11. Jesse Plemons, Digger

    12. Channing Tatum, Josephine

    13. David Oyelowo, Clarissa

    14. Daniel Brühl, The Entertainment System is Down

    15. Riz Ahmed, Digger

    99th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Director

    And we are off to the races with my first Oscar predictions for the 99th Academy Awards.

    We are not quite a month removed from the 98th ceremony so let us begin some ridiculously early speculation! These are my inaugural glimpses at the four acting derbies, Director, and Picture. I already posted my take in the acting fields and they can be found here:

    99th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Actress
    99th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Actor
    99th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Supporting Actress
    99th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Supporting Actor

    That brings us to Best Director. When I did my first forecast in this race for the 98th ceremony, my projections yielded two of the eventual nominees: Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme) and Chloé Zhao (Hamnet). Eventual winner Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another) and Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value) were named in Other Possibilities. I had yet to mention Ryan Coogler (Sinners).

    Let’s get some caveats out of the way… it’s early. Some movies listed are likely to be pushed back or simply not turn out to be awards contenders. Others will rise up through the festival system where the lineup for Cannes was revealed today.

    This premiere post has Christopher Nolan back in the lineup three years after Oppenheimer dominated the 96th Academy Awards. His competitors include newcomers and former nominees like Martin McDonagh and Ryusuke Hamaguchi.

    Here’s the first snapshot with Best Picture up next!

    TODD’S FIRST OSCAR PREDICTIONS FOR DIRECTOR AT THE 99TH ACADEMY AWARDS

    Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden

    Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary

    Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine

    Cristian Mungiu, Fjord

    Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey

    Other Possibilities:

    Danny Boyle, Ink

    Beth de Araújo, Josephine

    Robert Eggers, Werwulf

    Jesse Eisenberg, No One Cares

    David Fincher, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

    Tom Ford, Cry to Heaven

    Greta Gerwig, Narnia: The Magician’s Nephew

    Alejandro Gonzalez Iñárritu, Digger

    Pawel Pawlikowski, Fatherland

    Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three

    Todd’s 2016 Oscar Predictions: January 12th Edition

    Well, hello everyone! It’s Thursday and my first Oscar predictions of the new year have rolled in…

    In the past two weeks we’ve seen the Golden Globes occur, which showered its love upon La La Land. We’ve had BAFTA and Producers Guild nominations (that one produced a surprise nod for Deadpool and puts the comic book pic in the top 20 for the firs time). And the Director Guild announced their five nominees this morning, which exactly matches my picks here. We’ve seen pictures (in my estimation) increase their chances (Arrival, Hidden Figures) and others fall a bit (Silence).

    On Thursday the 19th, I will make my final round of Thursday predictions and on Sunday the 22nd – my “final” final predictions prior to the announcement on January 24th.

    Here’s how I see it all right now…

    Best Picture

    Predicted Nominees

    1. La La Land (Previous Ranking: 1)

    2. Moonlight (PR: 3)

    3. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 2)

    4. Arrival (PR: 7)

    5. Lion (PR: 5)

    6. Fences (PR: 4)

    7. Hidden Figures (PR: 8)

    8. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 9)

    9. Hell or High Water (PR: 10)

    Other Possibilities:

    10. Silence (PR: 6)

    11. Loving (PR: 11)

    12. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 12)

    13. Sully (PR: 13)

    14. Jackie (PR: 14)

    15. Deadpool (PR: Not Ranked)

    16. 20th Century Women (PR: 15)

    17. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 16)

    18. Patriots Day (PR: 17)

    19. Captain Fantastic (PR: 19)

    20. Zootopia (PR: 20)

    Dropped Out:

    The Jungle Book

    Best Director

    Predicted Nominees

    1. Damien Chazelle, La La Land (PR: 1)

    2. Barry Jenkins, Moonlight (PR: 2)

    3. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 3)

    4. Denis Villeneuve, Arrival (PR: 6)

    5. Garth Davis, Lion (PR: 5)

    Other Possibilities

    6. Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 7)

    7. Martin Scorsese, Silence (PR: 4)

    8. David Mackenzie, Hell or High Water (PR: 9)

    9. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 8)

    10. Theodore Melfi, Hidden Figures (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals

    Best Actor

    Predicted Nominees

    1. Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 1)

    2. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 2)

    3. Ryan Gosling, La La Land (PR: 3)

    4. Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 4)

    5. Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic (PR: 6)

    Other Possibilities

    6. Joel Edgerton, Loving (PR: 5)

    7. Tom Hanks, Sully (PR: 7)

    8. Michael Keaton, The Founder (PR: 8)

    9. Jake Gyllenhaal, Nocturnal Animals (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. Andrew Garfield, Silence (PR: 9)

    Dropped Out:

    Adam Driver, Paterson

    Best Actress

    Predicted Nominees

    1. Emma Stone, La La Land (PR: 1)

    2. Natalie Portman, Jackie (PR: 2)

    3. Amy Adams, Arrival (PR: 3)

    4. Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 5)

    5. Isabelle Huppert, Elle (PR: 6)

    Other Possibilities

    6. Annette Bening, 20th Century Women (PR: 4)

    7. Emily Blunt, The Girl on the Train (PR: 9)

    8. Ruth Negga, Loving (PR: 7)

    9. Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane (PR: 8)

    10. Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures (PR: 10)

    Best Supporting Actor

    Predicted Nominees

    1. Mahershala Ali, Moonlight (PR: 1)

    2. Dev Patel, Lion (PR: 2)

    3. Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 4)

    4. Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water (PR: 3)

    5. Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 6)

    Other Possibilities

    6. Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 5)

    7. Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Nocturnal Animals (PR: Not Ranked)

    8. Ben Foster, Hell or High Water (PR: 7)

    9. Issey Ogata, Silence (PR: 8)

    10. Mykelti Williamson, Fences (PR: 9)

    Dropped Out:

    Kevin Costner, Hidden Figures

    Best Supporting Actress

    Predicted Nominees

    1. Viola Davis, Fences (PR: 1)

    2. Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 3)

    3. Naomie Harris, Moonlight (PR: 2)

    4. Nicole Kidman, Lion (PR: 4)

    5. Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures (PR: 5)

    Other Possibilities

    6. Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women (PR: 6)

    7. Helen Mirren, Eye in the Sky (PR: 7)

    8. Molly Shannon, Other People (PR: 10)

    9. Janelle Monae, Hidden Figures (PR: 8)

    10. Lupita Nyong’o, Queen of Katwe (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Felicity Jones, A Monster Calls

    Best Adapted Screenplay

    Predicted Nominees

    1. Moonlight (PR: 1)

    2. Arrival (PR: 4)

    3. Lion (PR: 2)

    4. Fences (PR: 3)

    5. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 6)

    Other Possibilities

    6. Hidden Figures (PR: 9)

    7. Loving (PR: 8)

    8. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 7)

    9. Silence (PR: 5)

    10. Elle (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Sully

    Best Original Screenplay

    Predicted Nominees

    1. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 1)

    2. La La Land (PR: 2)

    3. Hell or High Water (PR: 3)

    4. Captain Fantastic (PR: 4)

    5. Toni Erdmann (PR: 8)

    Other Possibilities

    6. The Lobster (PR: 6)

    7. 20th Century Women (PR: 5)

    8. Jackie (PR: 7)

    9. Zootopia (PR: 9)

    10. Eye in the Sky (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    I, Daniel Blake

    Best Animated Feautre

    Predicted Nominees

    1. Zootopia (PR: 1)

    2. Kubo and the Two Strings (PR: 2)

    3. Moana (PR: 3)

    4. The Red Turtle (PR: 4)

    5. The Little Prince (PR: 7)

    Other Possibilities

    6. My Life as a Zucchini (PR: 5)

    7. Finding Dory (PR: 6)

    8. Your Name (PR: 9)

    9. Sausage Party (PR: 10)

    10. Sing (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    April and the Extraordinary World

    Best Documentary Feature

    Predicted Nominees

    1. I Am Not Your Negro (PR: 1)

    2. Gleason (PR: 4)

    3. O.J.: Made in America (PR: 2)

    4. 13th (PR: 3)

    5. Cameraperson (PR: 6)

    Other Possibilities

    6. The Ivory Game (PR: 9)

    7. Life, Animated (PR: 5)

    8. The Eagle Huntress (PR: 8)

    9. Weiner (PR: 10)

    10. Fire at Sea (PR: 7)

    Best Foreign Language Film

    Predicted Nominees

    1. Toni Erdmann (PR: 1)

    2. The Salesman (PR: 2)

    3. Land of Mine (PR: 3)

    4. My Life as a Zucchini (PR: 6)

    5. A Man Called Ove (PR: 4)

    Other Possibilities

    6. The King’s Choice (PR: 5)

    7. Tanna (PR: 8)

    8. It’s the Only the End of the World (PR: 9)

    9. Paradise (PR: 7)

    Best Cinematography

    Predicted Nominees

    1. La La Land (PR: 1)

    2. Arrival (PR: 4)

    3. Moonlight (PR: 2)

    4. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 5)

    5. Silence (PR: 3)

    Other Possibilities

    6. Lion (PR: 6)

    7. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 7)

    8. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 10)

    9. Jackie (PR: 8)

    10. Hell or High Water (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    The Jungle Book

    Best Costume Design

    Predicted Nominees

    1. Jackie (PR: 1)

    2. La La Land (PR: 2)

    3. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (PR: 7)

    4. Allied (PR: 3)

    5. Love & Friendship (PR: 4)

    Other Possibilities

    6. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 5)

    7. Silence (PR: 6)

    8. Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 8)

    9. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. Live by Night (PR: 9)

    Dropped Out:

    Alice Through the Looking Glass

    Best Editing

    Predicted Nominees

    1. La La Land (PR: 1)

    2. Moonlight (PR: 2)

    3. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 4)

    4. Arrival (PR: 3)

    5. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 6)

    Other Possibilities

    6. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: Not Ranked)

    7. Silence (PR: 5)

    8. Lion (PR: 7)

    9. Hell or High Water (PR: 8)

    10. Sully (PR: 9)

    Dropped Out:

    Jackie

    Best Makeup and Hairstyling

    Predicted Nominees

    1. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 1)

    2. Deadpool (PR: 3)

    3. Star Trek Beyond (PR: 2)

    Other Possibilities

    4. A Man Called Ove (PR: 5)

    5. Suicide Squad (PR: 4)

    6. The Dressmaker (PR: 6)

    7. Hail, Caesar! (PR: 7)

    Best Original Score

    Predicted Nominees

    1. La La Land (PR: 1)

    2. Lion (PR: 2)

    3. Moonlight (PR: 3)

    4. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 6)

    5. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 4)

    Other Possibilities

    6. Nocturnal Animals (PR: Not Ranked)

    7. Jackie (PR: 5)

    8. The BFG (PR: 9)

    9. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 8)

    10. The Jungle Book (PR: 10)

    Dropped Out:

    Hidden Figures 

    Best Original Song

    Predicted Nominees

    1. “City of Stars” from La La Land (PR: 1)

    2. “How Far I’ll Go” from Moana (PR: 2)

    3. “Audition (The Fools Who Dream)” from La La Land (PR: 3)

    4. “Runnin” from Hidden Figures (PR: 5)

    5. “Can’t Stop The Feeling!” from Trolls (PR: 7)

    Other Possibilities

    6. “Letters to the Free” from 13th (PR: 6)

    7. “Drive It Like You Stole It” from Sing Street (PR: 4)

    8. “The Rules Don’t Apply” from Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 8)

    9. “Faith” from Sing (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. “The Great Beyond” from Sausage Party (PR: 9)

    Dropped Out:

    “I’m Still Here” from Miss Sharon Jones

    Best Production Design

    Predicted Nominees

    1. La La Land (PR: 1)

    2. Jackie (PR: 2)

    3. Arrival (PR: 3)

    4. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 7)

    5. Silence (PR: 4)

    Other Possibilities

    6. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 10)

    7. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (PR: 8)

    8. Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 5)

    9. Allied (PR: 6)

    10. The Jungle Book (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Live by Night

    Best Sound Editing

    Predicted Nominees

    1. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 1)

    2. La La Land (PR: 2)

    3. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 3)

    4. Deepwater Horizon (PR: 5)

    5. Sully (PR: 4)

    Other Possibilities

    6. Arrival (PR: 6)

    7. The Jungle Book (PR: 9)

    8. Patriots Day (PR: 7)

    9. Deadpool (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. Allied (PR: 8)

    Dropped Out:

    Captain America: Civil War

    Best Sound Mixing

    Predicted Nominees

    1. La La Land (PR: 1)

    2. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 2)

    3. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 3)

    4. Arrival (PR: 4)

    5. Deepwater Horizon (PR: 5)

    Other Possibilties

    6. Patriots Day (PR: 8)

    7. Sully (PR: 6)

    8. The Jungle Book (PR: 9)

    9. Deadpool (PR: 10)

    10. Passengers (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Allied 

    Best Visual Effects

    Predicted Nominees

    1. The Jungle Book (PR: 1)

    2. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 2)

    3. Arrival (PR: 3)

    4. Doctor Strange (PR: 4)

    5. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (PR: 6)

    Other Possibilities

    6. The BFG (PR: 5)

    7. Deepwater Horizon (PR: 10)

    8. Kubo and the Two Strings (PR: 8)

    9. Captain America: Civil War (PR: 7)

    10. Passengers (PR: 9)

    That equates to the following number of nominations for each film:

    14 Nominations

    La La Land

    9 Nominations

    Arrival

    8 Nominations

    Moonlight

    7 Nominations

    Manchester by the Sea

    6 Nominations

    Lion, Hacksaw Ridge

    4 Nominations

    Fences, Florence Foster Jenkins, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

    3 Nominations

    Hidden Figures, Hell or High Water, Jackie

    2 Nominations

    Captain Fantastic, Nocturnal Animals, Toni Erdmann, Moana, Silence, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them, Deepwater Horizon

    1 Nomination

    Elle, Zootopia, Kubo and the Two Strings, The Red Turtle, The Little Prince, I Am Not Your Negro, Gleason, O.J.: Made in America, 13th, Cameraperson, The Salesman, Land of Mine, My Life as a Zucchini, A Man Called Ove, Allied, Love & Friendship, Deadpool, Star Trek Beyond, Trolls, Sully, The Jungle Book, Doctor Strange.

    And that does it for now! Until next week…

    2016 Golden Globes: Who Will Win?

    This Sunday evening, the Golden Globes (perhaps the most significant Oscar precursor) airs with Jimmy Fallon hosting. Unlike the Academy Awards, the Globes divide both Picture and the Lead Acting races in two categories: Drama and Musical/Comedy.

    Here’s how I have each race playing out with the winners predicted. As a side note, I decided to not do my weekly Oscar predictions yesterday and will have an updated post on Thursday next week!

    With that, let’s get to the races…

    Best Drama

    The Nominees: Hacksaw Ridge, Hell or High Water, Lion, Manchester by the Sea, Moonlight

    Todd’s Prediction: Moonlight

    Analysis: Not an easy prediction as this will probably boil down to Moonlight and Manchester, with both Hacksaw and Lion being potential spoilers (Water is only pic I see as having no shot). The winner of this category will likely vault into a two-way race with La La Land as to what comes out on top at Oscar time.

    Best Musical/Comedy

    The Nominees: 20th Century Women, Deadpool, Florence Foster Jenkins, La La Land, Sing Street

    Todd’s Prediction: La La Land

    Analysis: It would be pretty shocking if Damien Chazelle’s ode to Hollywood musicals didn’t win here. I suppose perhaps Jenkins has a dark horse shot, but this is the easiest pick of the bunch to make.

    Best Director

    The Nominees: Damien Chazelle (La La Land), Tom Ford (Nocturnal Animals), Mel Gibson (Hacksaw Ridge), Barry Jenkins (Moonlight), Kenneth Longergan (Manchester by the Sea)

    Todd’s Prediction: Damien Chazelle

    Analysis: Jenkins has racked up a slew of precursors and a win for Gibson would be seen as completing a remarkable comeback after multiple personal issues. However, at the end of the day, I believe the La La love will extend to its director.

    Best Actor (Drama)

    The Nominees: Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea), Joel Edgerton (Loving), Andrew Garfield (Hacksaw Ridge), Viggo Mortensen (Captain Fantastic), Denzel Washington (Fences).

    Todd’s Prediction: Casey Affleck

    Analysis: Like the Oscar race, this looks to be between Affleck and Washington. I’ll give the former the slight edge as he’s won more precursors and Manchester itself was nominated for Picture, whereas Fences was not.

    Best Actress (Drama)

    The Nominees: Amy Adams (Nocturnal Animals), Jessica Chastain (Miss Sloane), Isabelle Huppert (Elle), Ruth Negga (Loving), Natalie Portman (Jackie)

    Todd’s Prediction: Natalie Portman

    Analysis: While I wouldn’t totally rule out an Adams or Huppert win, Portman has the edge in her acclaimed role of Mrs. Kennedy.

    Best Actor (Musical/Comedy)

    The Nominees: Colin Farrell (The Lobster), Ryan Gosling (La La Land), Hugh Grant (Florence Foster Jenkins), Jonah Hill (War Dogs), Ryan Reynolds (Deadpool)

    Todd’s Prediction: Hugh Grant

    Analysis: Conventional wisdom would point to a Gosling win, but I believe the Hollywood Foreign Press will provide a bit of an upset here and honor Grant. Also – don’t be too shocked if Reynolds manages to surprise.

    Best Actress (Musical/Comedy)

    The Nominees: Annette Bening (20th Century Women), Lily Collins (Rules Don’t Apply), Hailee Steinfeld (The Edge of Seventeen), Emma Stone (La La Land), Meryl Streep (Florence Foster Jenkins)

    Todd’s Prediction: Emma Stone

    Analysis: Bening and Streep are long shots, but it would be a rather large upset if Stone didn’t emerge victorious here.

    Best Supporting Actor

    The Nominees: Mahershala Ali (Moonlight), Jeff Bridges (Hell or High Water), Simon Helberg (Florence Foster Jenkins), Dev Patel (Lion), Aaron Taylor-Johnson (Nocturnal Animals)

    Todd’s Prediction: Mahershala Ali

    Analysis: Bridges or Patel are feasible, but Ali has received the bulk of precursor awards and I believe that will continue here.

    Best Supporing Actress

    The Nominees: Viola Davis (Fences), Naomie Harris (Moonlight), Nicole Kidman (Lion), Octavia Spencer (Hidden Figures), Michelle Williams (Manchester by the Sea)

    Todd’s Prediction: Viola Davis

    Analysis: Davis is the clear front runner here and at the Oscars. An upset win (possible for any of these actresses other than Spencer) could dispel that notion, but it probably won’t occur.

    Best Screenplay

    The Nominees: Hell or High Water, La La Land, Manchester by the Sea, Moonlight, Nocturnal Animals

    Todd’s Prediction: Moonlight

    Analysis: La La and Manchester are in the mix here, but this is probably where Barry Jenkins will get his win and not for direction.

    Best Original Score

    The Nominees: Arrival, Hidden Figures, La La Land, Lion, Moonlight

    Todd’s Prediction: La La Land

    Analysis: Tough one and it’s not out of the question to envision any of them winning. I’ll just go La La and see what happens.

    Best Original Song

    The Nominees: “Can’t Stop the Feeling!” from Trolls, “City of Stars” from La La Land, “Faith” from Sing, “Gold” from Gold, “How Far I’ll Go” from Moana

    Todd’s Prediction: “City of Stars”

    Analysis: There’s some real heavy hitters here: Justin Timberlake, Lin-Manuel Miranda, and Stevie Wonder with nominations. Yet I think the HFPA honors La La once again.

    Best Animated Feature

    The Nominees: Kubo and the Two Strings, Moana, My Life as a Zucchini, Sing, Zootopia

    Todd’s Prediction: Zootopia

    Analysis: Kubo has a shot and you can never dismiss Disney with Moana. However, there’s another acclaimed Mouse Factory title in the mix and I believe Zootopia gets in.

    Best Foreign Language Film

    The Nominees: Divines, Elle, Neruda, The Salesman, Toni Erdmann

    Todd’s Prediction: Toni Erdmann

    Analysis: Elle could absolutely win here (and perhaps The Salesman), but I’ll go with Academy favorite Erdmann.

    And that does it, folks! I’ll have a post up Sunday night letting you know how well (or poorly) I did. Until then…

    Todd’s Weekly Oscar Predictions: December 29th Edition

    We have reached my final Oscar predictions post of 2016! There will be likely be four more posts: 3 Thursday editions (January 5, 12, 19) and a final one on Monday, January 23rd before the nominations are revealed on Tuesday, January 24th.

    Per usual, I’m listing 20 Best Picture possibilities and ten in all the other categories.

    Let’s get to it, shall we?

    Best Picture

    Predicted Nominees

    1. La La Land (PR: 1)

    2. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 3)

    3. Moonlight (PR: 2)

    4. Fences (PR: 6)

    5. Lion (PR: 4)

    6. Silence (PR: 5)

    7. Arrival (PR: 7)

    8. Hidden Figures (PR: 9)

    9. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 8)

    Other Possibilities

    10. Hell or High Water (PR: 10)

    11. Loving (PR: 11)

    12. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 14)

    13. Sully (PR: 12)

    14. Jackie (PR: 13)

    15. 20th Century Women (PR: 15)

    16. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 17)

    17. Patriots Day (PR: 16)

    18. The Jungle Book (PR: 18)

    19. Captain Fantastic (PR: 19)

    20. Zootopia (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Gold

    Best Director

    Predicted Nominees

    1. Damien Chazelle, La La Land (PR: 1)

    2. Barry Jenkins, Moonlight (PR: 2)

    3. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 3)

    4. Martin Scorsese, Silence (PR: 4)

    5. Garth Davis, Lion (PR: 6)

    Other Possibilities

    6. Denis Villeneueve, Arrival (PR: 5)

    7. Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 7)

    8. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 8)

    9. David Mackenzie, Hell or High Water (PR: 9)

    10. Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 10)

    Best Actor

    Predicted Nominees

    1. Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 1)

    2. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 2)

    3. Ryan Gosling, La La Land (PR: 3)

    4. Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 4)

    5. Joel Edgerton, Loving (PR: 7)

    Other Possibilities

    6. Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic (PR: 6)

    7. Tom Hanks, Sully (PR: 5)

    8. Michael Keaton, The Founder (PR: 8)

    9. Andrew Garfield, Silence (PR: 10)

    10. Adam Driver, Paterson (PR: 9)

    Best Actress

    Predicted Nominees

    1. Emma Stone, La La Land (PR: 1)

    2. Natalie Portman, Jackie (PR: 2)

    3. Amy Adams, Arrival (PR: 3)

    4. Annette Bening, 20th Century Women (PR: 4)

    5. Meryl Streep. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 6)

    Other Possibilities

    6. Isabelle Huppert, Elle (PR: 7)

    7. Ruth Negga, Loving (PR: 5)

    8. Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane (PR: 8)

    9. Emily Blunt, The Girl on the Train (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures (PR: 9)

    Dropped Out:

    Hailee Steinfeld, The Edge of Seventeen

    Best Supporting Actor

    Predicted Nominees

    1. Mahershala Ali, Moonlight (PR: 1)

    2. Dev Patel, Lion (PR: 2)

    3. Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water (PR: 4)

    4. Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 3)

    5. Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 5)

    Other Possibilities

    6. Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 7)

    7. Ben Foster, Hell or High Water (PR: 6)

    8. Issey Ogata, Silence (PR: 8)

    9. Mykelti Williamson, Fences (PR: 9)

    10. Kevin Costner, Hidden Figures (PR: 10)

    Best Supporting Actress

    Predicted Nominees

    1. Viola Davis, Fences (PR: 1)

    2. Naomie Harris, Moonlight (PR: 2)

    3. Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 3)

    4. Nicole Kidman, Lion (PR: 4)

    5. Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures (PR: 5)

    Other Possibilities

    6. Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women (PR: 7)

    7. Helen Mirren, Eye in the Sky (PR: 8)

    8. Janelle Monae, Hidden Figures (PR: 6)

    9. Felicity Jones, A Monster Calls (PR: 10)

    10. Molly Shannon, Other People (PR: 9)

    Best Adapted Screenplay

    Predicted Nominees

    1. Moonlight (PR: 1)

    2. Lion (PR: 3)

    3. Fences (PR: 2)

    4. Arrival (PR: 4)

    5. Silence (PR: 5)

    Other Possibilities

    6. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 7)

    7. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 6)

    8. Loving (PR: 9)

    9. Hidden Figures (PR: 8)

    10. Sully (PR: 10)

    Best Original Screenplay

    Predicted Nominees

    1. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 1)

    2. La La Land (PR: 2)

    3. Hell or High Water (PR: 3)

    4. Captain Fantastic (PR: 4)

    5. 20th Century Women (PR: 5)

    Other Possibilities

    6. The Lobster (PR: 6)

    7. Jackie (PR: 7)

    8. Toni Erdmann (PR: Not Ranked)

    9. Zootopia (PR: 8)

    10. I, Daniel Blake (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Eye in the Sky

    Florence Foster Jenkins

    Best Animated Feature

    Predicted Nominees

    1. Zootopia (PR: 1)

    2. Kubo and the Two Strings (PR: 2)

    3. Moana (PR: 3)

    4. The Red Turtle (PR: 4)

    5. My Life as a Zucchini (PR: 6)

    Other Possibilties

    6. Finding Dory (PR: 5)

    7. The Little Prince (PR: 7)

    8. April and the Extraordinary World (PR: 8)

    9. Your Name (PR: 10)

    10. Sausage Party (PR: 9)

    Best Documentary Feature

    Predicted Nominees

    1. I Am Not Your Negro (PR: 1)

    2. O.J.: Made in America (PR: 3)

    3. 13th (PR: 2)

    4. Gleason (PR: 5)

    5. Life, Animated (PR: 6)

    Other Possibilities

    6. Cameraperson (PR: 4)

    7. Fire at Sea (PR: 7)

    8. The Eagle Huntress (PR: 8)

    9. The Ivory Game (PR: 10)

    10. Weiner (PR: 9)

    Best Foreign Language Film

    Predicted Nominees

    1. Toni Erdmann (PR: 1)

    2. The Salesman (PR: 2)

    3. Land of Mine (PR: 3)

    4. A Man Called Ove (PR: 5)

    5. The King’s Choice (PR: 6)

    Other Possibilities

    6. My Life as a Zucchini (PR: 4)

    7. Paradise (PR: 8)

    8. Tanna (PR: 7)

    9. It’s Only the End of the World (PR: 9)

    Best Cinematography

    Predicted Nominees

    1. La La Land (PR: 1)

    2. Moonlight (PR: 2)

    3. Silence (PR: 3)

    4. Arrival (PR: 4)

    5. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 7)

    Other Possibilities

    6. Lion (PR: 5)

    7. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 6)

    8. Jackie (PR: 8)

    9. The Jungle Book (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 10)

    Dropped Out:

    Hell or High Water

    Best Costume Design

    Predicted Nominees

    1. Jackie (PR: 1)

    2. La La Land (PR: 2)

    3. Allied (PR: 4)

    4. Love & Friendship (PR: 3)

    5. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 5)

    Other Possibilities

    6. Silence (PR: 8)

    7. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (PR: 7)

    8. Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 9)

    9. Live by Night (PR: 6)

    10. Alice Through the Looking Glass (PR: Not Ranked)

    Best Film Editing

    Predicted Nominees

    1. La La Land (PR: 1)

    2. Moonlight (PR: 2)

    3. Arrival (PR: 3)

    4. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 4)

    5. Silence (PR: 6)

    Other Possibilities

    6. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 10)

    7. Lion (PR: 5)

    8. Hell or High Water (PR: 8)

    9. Sully (PR: 7)

    10. Jackie (PR: 9)

    Best Makeup and Hairstyling

    Predicted Nominees

    1. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 1)

    2. Star Trek Beyond (PR: 2)

    3. Deadpool (PR: 4)

    Other Possibilities

    4. Suicide Squad (PR: 3)

    5. A Man Called Ove (PR: 7)

    6. The Dressmaker (PR: 5)

    7. Hail, Caesar! (PR: 6)

    Best Original Score

    Predicted Nominees

    1. La La Land (PR: 1)

    2. Lion (PR: 4)

    3. Moonlight (PR: 2)

    4. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 3)

    5. Jackie (PR: 6)

    Other Possibilities

    6. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 5)

    7. Hidden Figures (PR: Not Ranked)

    8. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 7)

    9. The BFG (PR: 9)

    10. The Jungle Book (PR: 10)

    Dropped Out:

    Moana

    Best Original Song

    Predicted Nominees

    1. “City of Stars” from La La Land (PR: 1)

    2. “How Far I’ll Go” from Moana (PR: 2)

    3. “Audition (The Fools Who Dream)” from La La Land (PR: 4)

    4. “Drive It Like You Stole It” from Sing Street (PR: 8)

    5. “Runnin” from Hidden Figures (PR: 5)

    Other Possibilities

    6. “Letters to the Free” from 13th (PR: 3)

    7. “Can’t Stop the Feeling!” from Trolls (PR: 7)

    8. “The Rules Don’t Apply” from Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 6)

    9. “The Great Beyond” from Sausage Party (PR: 10)

    10. “I’m Still Here” from Miss Sharon Jones

    Best Production Design

    Predicted Nominees

    1. La La Land (PR: 1)

    2. Jackie (PR: 2)

    3. Arrival (PR: 3)

    4. Silence (PR: 4)

    5. Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 9)

    Other Possibilities

    6. Allied (PR: Not Ranked)

    7. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 5)

    8. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (PR: 7)

    9. Live by Night (PR: 6)

    10. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 10)

    Dropped Out:

    The Jungle Book

    Best Sound Editing

    Predicted Nominees

    1. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 1)

    2. La La Land (PR: 3)

    3. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 2)

    4. Sully (PR: 4)

    5. Deepwater Horizon (PR: 6)

    Other Possibilities

    6. Arrival (PR: 7)

    7. Patriots Day (PR: 8)

    8. Allied (PR: Not Ranked)

    9. The Jungle Book (PR: 5)

    10. Captain America: Civil War (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Deadpool

    Doctor Strange

    Best Sound Mixing

    Predicted Nominees

    1. La La Land (PR: 1)

    2. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 2)

    3. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 3)

    4. Arrival (PR: 5)

    5. Deepwater Horizon (PR: 4)

    Other Possibilities

    6. Sully (PR: 7)

    7. Allied (PR: 8)

    8. Patriots Day (PR: 9)

    9. The Jungle Book (PR: 6)

    10. Deadpool (PR: 10)

    Best Visual Effects

    Predicted Nominees

    1. The Jungle Book (PR: 1)

    2. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 2)

    3. Arrival (PR: 3)

    4. Doctor Strange (PR: 4)

    5. The BFG (PR: 6)

    Other Possibilities

    6. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (PR: 5)

    7. Captain America: Civil War (PR: 8)

    8. Kubo and the Two Strings (PR: 7)

    9. Passengers (PR: 10)

    10. Deepwater Horizon (PR: 9)

    That leaves us with the following nomination breakdown:

    14 Nominations

    La La Land

    8 Nominations

    Moonlight, Arrival

    6 Nominations

    Manchester by the Sea, Lion, Silence

    5 Nominations

    Hacksaw Ridge

    4 Nominations

    Fences, Jackie, Florence Foster Jenkins

    3 Nominations

    Hidden Figures, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

    2 Nominations

    20th Century Women, Hell or High Water, Nocturnal Animals, Moana, Deepwater Horizon

    1 Nomination

    Loving, Captain Fantastic, Zootopia, Kubo and the Two Strings, The Red Turtle, My Life as a Zucchini, I Am Not Your Negro, O.J.: Made in America, 13th, Gleason, Life, Animated, Toni Erdmann, The Salesman, Land of Mine, A Man Called Ove, The King’s Choice, Allied, Love & Friendship, Star Trek Beyond, Deadpool, Sing Street, Rules Don’t Apply, Sully, The Jungle Book, Doctor Strange, The BFG.

    That’ll do it for now. See ya with the predictions next year!

     

    Nocturnal Animals Movie Review

    Tom Ford’s Nocturnal Animals is centered on a woman living in a fancy world surrounded by her own boredom and regret at certain life choices. The film is an often fascinating mash-up of Hitchcock, a little De Palma inspired Hitchcock, and most surprisingly, a West Texas crime tale that looks and feels like this year’s earlier Hell or High Water. We also have a more conventional tale of a romance gone astray and the emotions involved with that. It’s a concoction that sometimes is a little messy, a tad campy at moments, veers in tone shifts, and is also directed a fashion designer who seems to know exactly what he wishes to fashion.

    L.A. art gallery owner Susan Morrow (Amy Adams) is living a wealthy life in an unhappy marriage and a career she’s grown to believe is purposeless. One day, she receives a manuscript. It’s from her ex-husband Edward (Jake Gyllenhaal) that she was only married to for a couple years around college. The novel grabs her. It’s the aforementioned High Water looking story of a remarried Edward on a West Texas road trip with his wife and daughter when they are terrorized by bad guys led by a disheveled and effectively menacing Aaron Taylor-Johnson. Their encounter takes a dark and tragic turn and soon Edward is teaming up with a ranger (Michael Shannon, in a terrific performance) to deal with its aftermath.

    The story cuts back and forth between the actions of Susan’s ex-flame’s West Texas narrative (is it real or not?) and her unhappy life on the West Coast. We also witness the courtship of them in college. This juxtaposition creates an often dream like quality (a little David Lynch thrown in for good measure) and it’s rather intoxicating. We basically get to know everything we need to know about Susan’s character in a great short scene with Laura Linney as her debutante mom. Other key characters and their motivations don’t become clear until later.

    Nocturnal Animals looks gorgeous as you might expect from a designer that Jay-Z made a song about. The cinematography is stunning and the musical score is often reminiscent of something we’d hear in an old Hitch pic or perhaps De Palma homage. There are moments that recall Nicolas Winding Refn’s The Neon Demon in plot had that movie actually succeeded. Tom Ford wears his influences proudly and unabashedly in his sophomore effort. It’s anything but boring.

    ***1/2 (out of four)

    Todd’s Weekly Oscar Predictions: December 22nd Edition

    We are moving closer and closer to Oscar nominations being out and there’s plenty of precursor action happening, etc…

    Some of the categories, including Best Foreign Language Film (with its list whittled down to nine), Makeup and Hairstyling (seven possibles) and Visual Effects (ten possibilities). All in all, this last predictions posts before Christmas gives my take on where all the races stand as things (sort of) become a bit clearer.

    Let’s get to it, shall we?

    Best Picture

    Predicted Nominees

    1. La La Land (Previous Ranking: 1)

    2. Moonlight (PR: 2)

    3. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 3)

    4. Lion (PR: 6)

    5. Silence (PR: 4)

    6. Fences (PR: 5)

    7. Arrival (PR: 7)

    8. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 8)

    9. Hidden Figures (PR: 9)

    Other Possibilities

    10. Hell or High Water (PR: 10)

    11. Loving (PR: 11)

    12. Sully (PR: 13)

    13. Jackie (PR: 12)

    14. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 14)

    15. 20th Century Women (PR: 15)

    16. Patriots Day (PR: 16)

    17. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 17)

    18. The Jungle Book (PR: 19)

    19. Captain Fantastic (PR: Not Ranked)

    20. Gold (PR: 20)

    Dropped Out:

    Live by Night

    Best Director

    Predicted Nominees

    1. Damien Chazelle, La La Land (PR: 1)

    2. Barry Jenkins, Moonlight (PR: 2)

    3. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 3)

    4. Martin Scorsese, Silence (PR: 4)

    5. Denis Villeneuve, Arrival (PR: 5)

    Other Possibilities

    6. Garth Davis, Lion (PR: 8)

    7. Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 6)

    8. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 7)

    9. David Mackenzie, Hell or High Water (PR: 9)

    10. Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Jeff Nichols, Loving

    Best Actor

    Predicted Nominees

    1. Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 1)

    2. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 2)

    3. Ryan Gosling, La La Land (PR: 3)

    4. Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 4)

    5. Tom Hanks, Sully (PR: 5)

    Other Possibilities

    6. Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic (PR: 7)

    7. Joel Edgerton, Loving (PR: 6)

    8. Michael Keaton, The Founder (PR: 8)

    9. Adam Driver, Paterson (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. Andrew Garfield, Silence (PR: 9)

    Dropped Out:

    Matthew McConaughey, Gold

    Best Actress

    Predicted Nominees

    1. Emma Stone, La La Land (PR: 1)

    2. Natalie Portman, Jackie (PR: 2)

    3. Amy Adams, Arrival (PR: 4)

    4. Annette Bening, 20th Century Women (PR: 3)

    5. Ruth Negga, Loving (PR: 7)

    Other Possibilities

    6. Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 6)

    7. Isabelle Huppert, Elle (PR: 5)

    8. Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane (PR: 8)

    9. Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures (PR: 9)

    10. Hailee Steinfeld, The Edge of Seventeen (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Rebecca Hall, Christine

    Best Supporting Actor

    Predicted Nominees

    1. Mahershala Ali, Moonlight (PR: 1)

    2. Dev Patel, Lion (PR: 2)

    3. Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 3)

    4. Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water (PR: 4)

    5. Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 5)

    Other Possibilities

    6. Ben Foster, Hell or High Water (PR: 10)

    7. Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 6)

    8. Issey Ogata, Silence (PR: 8)

    9. Mykelti Williamson, Fences (PR: 7)

    10. Kevin Costner, Hidden Figures (PR: 9)

    Best Supporting Actress

    Predicted Nominees

    1. Viola Davis, Fences (PR: 1)

    2. Naomie Harris, Moonlight (PR: 2)

    3. Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 3)

    4. Nicole Kidman, Lion (PR: 4)

    5. Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures (PR: 5)

    Other Possibilities

    6. Janelle Monae, Hidden Figures (PR: 8)

    7. Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women (PR: 6)

    8. Helen Mirren, Eye in the Sky (PR: 7)

    9. Molly Shannon, Other People (PR: 10)

    10. Felicity Jones, A Monster Calls (PR: 9)

    Best Adapted Screenplay

    Predicted Nominees

    1. Moonlight (PR: 1)

    2. Fences (PR: 2)

    3. Lion (PR: 3)

    4. Arrival (PR: 5)

    5. Silence (PR: 4)

    Other Possibilities

    6. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 6)

    7. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 7)

    8. Hidden Figures (PR: 9)

    9. Loving (PR: 8)

    10. Sully (PR: 10)

    Best Original Screenplay

    Predicted Nominees

    1. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 1)

    2. La La Land (PR: 2)

    3. Hell or High Water (PR: 3)

    4. Captain Fantastic (PR: 4)

    5. 20th Century Women (PR: 5)

    Other Possibilities

    6. The Lobster (PR: 6)

    7. Jackie (PR: 7)

    8. Zootopia (PR: Not Ranked)

    9. Eye in the Sky (PR: 8)

    10. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 9)

    Dropped Out:

    I, Daniel Blake

    Best Animated Feature

    Predicted Nominees

    1. Zootopia (PR: 1)

    2. Kubo and the Two Strings (PR: 2)

    3. Moana (PR: 3)

    4. The Red Turtle (PR: 4)

    5. Finding Dory (PR: 5)

    Other Possibilities

    6. My Life as a Zucchini (PR: 7)

    7. The Little Prince (PR: 6)

    8. April and the Extraordinary World (PR: 8)

    9. Sausage Party (PR: 10)

    10. Your Name (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Trolls

    Best Documentary Feature

    Predicted Nominees

    1. I Am Not Your Negro (PR: 2)

    2. 13th (PR: 1)

    3. O.J.: Made in America (PR: 3)

    4. Cameraperson (PR: 6)

    5. Gleason (PR: 4)

    Other Possibilties

    6. Life, Animated (PR: 5)

    7. Fire at Sea (PR: 9)

    8. The Eagle Huntress (PR: 8)

    9. Weiner (PR: 7)

    10. The Ivory Game (PR: 10)

    Best Foreign Language Film

    Predicted Nominees

    1. Toni Erdmann (PR: 1)

    2. The Salesman (PR: 3)

    3. Land of Mine (PR: 4)

    4. My Life as a Zucchini (PR: Not Ranked)

    5. A Man Called Ove (PR: Not Ranked)

    Other Possibilities

    6. The King’s Choice (PR: Not Ranked)

    7. Tanna (PR: Not Ranked)

    8. Paradise (PR: Not Ranked)

    9. It’s the Only the End of the World (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Elle

    Neruda

    The Happiest Day in the Life of Olli Maki

    Julieta

    Ma’Rosa

    The Ardennes

    Best Cinematography

    Predicted Nominees

    1. La La Land (PR: 1)

    2. Moonlight (PR: 2)

    3. Silence (PR: 3)

    4. Arrival (PR: 4)

    5. Lion (PR: 7)

    Other Possibilities

    6. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 9)

    7. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 6)

    8. Jackie (PR: 5)

    9. Hell or High Water (PR: 8)

    10. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Live by Night

    Best Costume Design

    Predicted Nominees

    1. Jackie (PR: 1)

    2. La La Land (PR: 2)

    3. Love &  Friendship (PR: 4)

    4. Allied (PR: 3)

    5. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 7)

    Other Possibilities

    6. Live by Night (PR: 6)

    7. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (PR: 5)

    8. Silence (PR: 8)

    9. Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 9)

    10. Hidden Figures (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Fences

    Best Editing

    Predicted Nominees

    1. La La Land (PR: 1)

    2. Moonlight (PR: 2)

    3. Arrival (PR: 4)

    4. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 5)

    5. Lion (PR: 7)

    Other Possibilities

    6. Silence (PR: 3)

    7. Sully (PR: 6)

    8. Hell or High Water (PR: Not Ranked)

    9. Jackie (PR: 10)

    10. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 8)

    Dropped Out:

    Fences

    Best Makeup and Hairstyling

    Predicted Nominees

    1. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 7)

    2. Star Trek Beyond (PR: 2)

    3. Suicide Squad (PR: 6)

    Other Possibilities

    4. Deadpool (PR: 5)

    5. The Dressmaker (PR: Not Ranked)

    6. Hail, Caesar! (PR: Not Ranked)

    7. A Man Called Ove (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Jackie

    Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

    Hacksaw Ridge

    Love & Friendship

    Doctor Strange

    Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

    Nocturnal Animals

    Best Original Score

    Predicted Nominees

    1. La La Land (PR: 1)

    2. Moonlight (PR: 7)

    3. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 9)

    4. Lion (PR: 2)

    5. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 6)

    Other Possibilities

    6. Jackie (PR: 3)

    7. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: Not Ranked)

    8. Moana (PR: 4)

    9. The BFG (PR: 10)

    10. The Jungle Book (PR: 8)

    Dropped Out:

    Nocturnal Animals

    Best Original Song

    Predicted Nominees

    1. “City of Stars” from La La Land (PR: 3)

    2. “We Know the Way” from Moana (PR: 2)

    3. “Letters to the Free” from 13th (PR: 4)

    4. “Audition (The Fools Who Dream)” from La La Land (PR: 1)

    5. “Runnin” from Hidden Figures (PR: Not Ranked)

    Other Possibilities

    6. “Rules Don’t Apply” from Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 5)

    7. “Can’t Stop The Feeling!” from Trolls (PR: 6)

    8. “Drive It Like You Stole It” from Sing Street (PR: 7)

    9. “I’m Still Here” from Miss Sharon Jones (PR: 10)

    10. “The Great Beyond” from Sausage Party (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    “Dancing with Your Shadow” from Po

    “I See Victory” from Hidden Figures

    Best Production Design

    Predicted Nominees

    1. La La Land (PR: 1)

    2. Jackie (PR: 2)

    3. Arrival (PR: 4)

    4. Silence (PR: 3)

    5. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 8)

    Other Possibilities

    6. Live by Night (PR: 5)

    7. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (PR: Not Ranked)

    8. The Jungle Book (PR: Not Ranked)

    9. Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 9)

    10. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Fences

    Allied

    Love & Friendship

    Best Sound Editing

    Predicted Nominees

    1. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 1)

    2. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 3)

    3. La La Land (PR: 2)

    4. Sully (PR: 4)

    5. The Jungle Book (PR: 5)

    Other Possibilities

    6. Deepwater Horizon (PR: 6)

    7. Arrival (PR: 7)

    8. Patriots Day (PR: 8)

    9. Deadpool (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. Doctor Strange (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Passengers

    Allied

    Best Sound Mixing

    Predicted Nominees

    1. La La Land (PR: 1)

    2. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 2)

    3. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 3)

    4. Deepwater Horizon (PR: 4)

    5. Arrival (PR: 5)

    Other Possibilities

    6. The Jungle Book (PR: 6)

    7. Sully (PR: 7)

    8. Allied (PR: Not Ranked)

    9. Patriots Day (PR: 8)

    10. Deadpool (PR: 9)

    Dropped Out:

    Passengers

    Best Visual Effects

    Predicted Nominees

    1. The Jungle Book (PR: 1)

    2. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 2)

    3. Arrival (PR: 3)

    4. Doctor Strange (PR: 4)

    5. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (PR: 5)

    Other Possibilities

    6. The BFG (PR: 6)

    7. Kubo and the Two Strings (PR: Not Ranked)

    8. Captain America: Civil War (PR: Not Ranked)

    9. Deepwater Horizon (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. Passengers (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Sully

    Star Trek Beyond

    Deadpool

    A Monster Calls

    That gives you a current nomination breakdown as follows:

    14 Nominations

    La La Land

    9 Nominations

    Arrival

    8 Nominations

    Moonlight

    7 Nominations

    Lion

    6 Nominations

    Manchester by the Sea, Hacksaw Ridge

    5 Nominations

    Silence

    4 Nominations

    Fences, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

    3 Nominations

    Jackie, Hidden Figures, Florence Foster Jenkins

    2 Nominations

    Sully, 20th Century Women, Hell or High Water, Moana, 13th, The Jungle Book

    1 Nomination

    Loving, Nocturnal Animals, Captain Fantastic, Zootopia, Kubo and the Two Strings, The Red Turtle, Finding Dory, I Am Not Your Negro, O.J.: Made in America, Cameraperson, Gleason, Toni Erdmann, The Salesman, Land of Mine, My Life as a Zucchini, A Man Called Ove, Love & Friendship, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them, Allied, Star Trek Beyond, Suicide Squad, Deepwater Horizon, Doctor Strange. 

    And there you have it! I’ll be back at it again next Thursday with my final predictions of the year!

    2016 Golden Globe Nominations Reaction

    Well, the Golden Globe nominations are out and there are some genuine surprises to be had.

    Not surprising? Damien Chazelle’s La La Land (the current front runner in the Oscar Best Picture derby) leading all nominees with seven with Barry Jenkins’s Moonlight close behind with six.

    Surprising? A total shut-out for Martin Scorsese’s Silence and a better than expected showing for Tom Ford’s Nocturnal Animals. 

    All in all, my performance guessing the nominees was pretty weak. 64% total in the ten major categories predicted.

    Let’s break them down one by one, shall we?

    Best Picture (Drama)

    My Performance 2/5

    Analysis: Ouch. This race threw me for a loop as only Manchester by the Sea and Moonlight were nominated among my five. The three that weren’t: the aforementioned Silence, Arrival, and Fences. In their place: Mel Gibson’s Hacksaw Ridge, Garth Davis’s Lion, and David Mackenzie’s Hell or High Water. Truthfully, none of their inclusions are entirely surprising. Having said that, if I thought I’d get three picks wrong, I probably would have thought Pablo Larrain’s Jackie would get in. This race now appears to be between Manchester and Moonlight.

    Best Picture (Musical or Comedy)

    My Performance: 3/5

    Well… a little better. The three I correctly predicted were La La Land, Florence Foster Jenkins, and 20th Century Women. Warren Beatty’s Rules Don’t Apply and The Lobster didn’t make it in in favor of Deadpool (!) and Sing Street. Bottom line here? La La is going to win this category.

    Best Director

    My Performance: 3/5

    Chazelle, Jenkins, and Lonergan were got in as I said they would, but Martin Scorsese and Denis Villeneuve (Arrival) did not. In their place are Mel Gibson for Hacksaw and the rather surprising inclusion of Tom Ford for Nocturnal Animals, especially considering the movie wasn’t nominated in Drama.

    Best Actor (Drama)

    My Performance: 4/5

    The only incorrect estimate here is that Viggo Mortensen got in for Captain Fantastic instead of Tom Hanks for Sully. Ironically, I did predict Viggo would be nominated in Musical/Comedy here (I thought Fantastic would fall under that genre). The other nominees that I did get: Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea), Joel Edgerton (Loving), Andrew Garfield (Hacksaw Ridge), and Denzel Washington (Fences).

    Best Actress (Drama)

    My Performance: 5/5

    Hey, the one and only race where I went 100%! The nominees: Amy Adams (Arrival), Jessica Chastain (Miss Sloane), Isabelle Huppert (Elle), Ruth Negga (Loving), and Natalie Portman (Jackie).

    Best Actor (Musical or Comedy)

    My Performance: 3/5

    To me, the surprise is that the Hollywood Foreign Press didn’t nominate the legendary Warren Beatty for Rules Don’t Apply. As mentioned before, I put Mortensen in here, but he ended up getting nominated for Drama. The three I got right: Colin Farrell (The Lobster), Ryan Gosling (La La Land), and Hugh Grant (Florence Foster Jenkins). The two I didn’t: the pretty shocking nod for Jonah Hill in War Dogs and much deserved love for Ryan Reynolds in Deadpool.

    Best Actress (Musical or Comedy)

    My Performance: 3/5

    Annette Bening (20th Century Women), Emma Stone (La La Land), and Meryl Streep (Florence Foster Jenkins) were all very easy picks to make and they got in. The other two were tougher. I went with Kate Beckinsale in Love & Friendship and Susan Sarandon in The Meddler, but it was Lily Collins (Rules Don’t Apply) and Hailee Steinfeld (The Edge of Seventeen) who made the cut.

    Best Supporting Actor

    My Performance: 2/5

    Ouch again. When it comes to Oscar predictin’, this has been the most unpredictable category of them all and that showed with my GG’s performance here. I correctly named Mahershala Ali (Moonlight) and Dev Patel in Lion. My picks of Lucas Hedges (Manchester), Issey Ogata (the totally ignored Silence), and Michael Shannon (Nocturnal Animals) didn’t come to fruition. Instead, we got the surprise nod for Shannon’s Nocturnal costar Aaron Taylor-Johnson along with Jeff Bridges (Hell or High Water) and Simon Helberg (Florence Foster Jenkins).

    Best Supporting Actress

    My Performance: 4/5

    Correct picks were Viola Davis in Fences, Naomie Harris for Moonlight, Nicole Kidman in Lion, and Michelle Williams for Manchester. It was Octavia Spencer in Hidden Figures that I didn’t get (I said Greta Gerwig in 20th Century Women instead). Spencer’s inclusion is a small surprise, as some of the Oscar chatter has had Janelle Monae more likely to get in for Figures than her costar.

    Best Screenplay

    My Performance: 3/5

    La La Land, Manchester, and Moonlight are in as predicted. No love for Arrival and Silence. In their place? Hell or High Water and Nocturnal Animals.

    And there you have it! I’ll have a post up with final predictions on the winners shortly before Jimmy Fallon hosts the proceedings in January…

    Todd’s Weekly Oscar Predictions: October 20th Edition

    It’s Thursday, ladies and gents, and that means my weely Oscar predictions are in! There’s been some serious changes to the predictions, a new film that’s qualified itself for consideration, and some category shifting that’s occurred within the past week.

    So – perhaps some explanation on where I see the state of the races in each of the eight major categories is required this week. My synopsis of said races are for your enjoyment below…

    Let’s get to it!

    Best Picture

    Predicted Nominees

    1. La La Land (Previous Ranking: 1)

    2. Silence (PR: 2)

    3. Fences (PR: 3)

    4. Lion (PR: 6)

    5. Jackie (PR: 5)

    6. Moonlight (PR: 7)

    7. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 6)

    8. Arrival (PR: 9)

    9. Hidden Figures (PR: 12)

    Other Possibilities

    10. Loving (PR: 10)

    11. 20th Century Women (PR: 11)

    12. Hell or High Water (PR: 14)

    13. Live by Night (PR: 13)

    14. Sully (PR: 15)

    15. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 4)

    16. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 17)

    17. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 18)

    18. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: Not Ranked)

    19. The Jungle Book (PR: 20)

    20. 13th (PR: 16)

    21. Allied (PR: 21)

    22. Gold (PR: 22)

    23. Rules Don’t Apply (PR: Not Ranked)

    24. Passengers (PR: 23)

    25. The Founder (PR: 24)

    Dropped Out:

    Miss Sloane

    I, Daniel Blake

    Where The Race Stands…

    With La La Land as the current front runner and there’s no doubt about it. The conventional wisdom for the last several weeks is that there were three fall entries that could potentially give it a run for its money: Martin Scorsese’s Silence, Denzel Washington’s Fences, and Ang Lee’s Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk. That dynamic shifted dramatically when Halftime opened to middling reviews when it screened at the New York Film Festival this weekend. The film has now dropped 11 spots and out of my predicted nominees and it’s unlikely to make its way back in. Silence and Fences now seem the only likely pictures to stand in the way of La La. Meanwhile, Mel Gibson’s Hacksaw Ridge makes a serious jump into the possibilities – from not ranked a week ago to #18.  I’ve also found room for the Warren Beatty pic Rules Don’t Apply, which has yet to screen. Others on the list of possibilities that have yet to be reviewed (meaning they could jump up when they do or fall out completely): Hidden Figures (which I have in the ninth spot at the moment for a nod), Live by Night, Passengers, Allied, Gold, The Founder and others not currently in the top 25 such as Miss Sloane and Collateral Beauty. 

    Best Director

    Predicted Nominees

    1. Damien Chazelle, La La Land (PR: 1)

    2. Martin Scorsese, Silence (PR: 3)

    3. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 4)

    4. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 6)

    5. Pablo Larrain, Jackie (PR: 5)

    Other Possibilties

    6. Denis Villeneuve, Arrival (PR: 7)

    7. Garth Davis, Lion (PR: 8)

    8. Barry Jenkins, Moonlight (PR: 9)

    9. Jeff Nichols, Loving (PR: 10)

    10. Ang Lee, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 2)

    11. Mike Mills, 20th Century Women (PR: 12)

    12. Ben Affleck, Live by Night (PR: 11)

    13. Theodore Melfi, Hidden Figures (PR: Not Ranked)

    14. Clint Eastwood, Sully (PR: 13)

    15. Ana DuVernay, 13th (PR: 14)

    Dropped Out:

    Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals

    Where the Race Stands…

    With two-time Oscar winner Ang Lee falling 8 spots after the NYFF Halftime reaction. Chazelle remains at #1 as he’s been for weeks as we await Scorsese and Washington’s films. I’m growing more confident that Lonergan manages to squeeze into the top five.

    Best Actor

    Predicted Nominees

    1. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 1)

    2. Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 2)

    3. Ryan Gosling, La La Land (PR: 3)

    4. Tom Hanks, Sully (PR: 4)

    5. Joel Edgerton, Loving (PR: 5)

    Other Possibilities

    6. Andrew Garfield, Silence (PR: 8)

    7. Dev Patel, Lion (PR: 6)

    8. Warren Beatty, Rules Don’t Apply (PR: Not Ranked in Lead Actor)

    9. Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. Michael Keaton, The Founder (PR: 9)

    11. Jake Gyllenhaal, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 10)

    12. Matthew McConaughey, Gold (PR: 11)

    13. Will Smith, Collateral Beauty (PR: 12)

    14. Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic (PR: 15)

    15. Miles Teller, Bleed for This (PR: 13)

    Dropped Out:

    Joe Alwyn, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk

    Ben Affleck, Live by Night

    Where the Race Stands…

    Up in the air until we see Denzel’s work in Fences, which could potentially become the immediate front runner as I’m currently estimating. Casey Affleck is getting raves, too and has held steady at #2 for weeks. Andrew Garfield is on the outside looking in for now, but could get in for either Silence or Hacksaw Ridge. There’s also late breaking news that Taylor Hackford’s The Comedian was given a December release for Oscar consideration and perhaps that’ll bode well for its star, Robert De Niro (though I’m not prepared to include him in the mix quite yet). And there’s last week’s reveal that Warren Beatty will compete in this category instead of Supporting, as was previously thought.

    Best Actress

    Predicted Nominees

    1. Emma Stone, La La Land (PR: 1)

    2. Natalie Portman, Jackie (PR: 2)

    3. Viola Davis, Fences (PR: 3)

    4. Annette Bening, 20th Century Women (PR: 4)

    5. Ruth Negga, Loving (PR: 5)

    Other Possibilities

    6. Amy Adams, Arrival (PR: 7)

    7. Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 6)

    8. Isabelle Huppert, Elle (PR: 9)

    9. Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane (PR: 8)

    10. Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures (PR: 12)

    11. Rebecca Hall, Christine (PR: 10)

    12. Marion Cotillard, Allied (PR: 14)

    13. Amy Adams, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 11)

    14. Emily Blunt, The Girl on the Train (PR: 13)

    15. Jennifer Lawrence, Passengers (PR: 15)

    Where the Race Stands…

    As one of the most competitive Best Actress races in history. Both Stone and Portman are serious contenders for the win and we haven’t even seen heard the word on Davis’s work in Fences. They appear to be the trio that could win. In any other year, Bening’s acclaimed performance in Women might earn her some overdue recognition, but probably not this year. The fifth slot is much trickier and I almost picked Adams (for Arrival and not Nocturnal Animals) over Negga. Just to show you the competitiveness, Streep in most years would be a shoo-in for her 20th (!) nomination for Jenkins, but could be left out. Others to keep an eye on: Chastain and a dark horse nominee like Hall.

    Best Supporting Actor

    Predicted Nominees

    1. Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 1)

    2. Liam Neeson, Silence (PR: 2)

    3. Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 3)

    4. Stephen Henderson, Fences (PR: 4)

    5. Mahershala Ali, Moonlight (PR: 5)

    Other Possibilities

    6. Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 10)

    7. Aaron Eckhart, Sully (PR: 6)

    8. Peter Sarsgaard, Jackie (PR: 8)

    9. Sunny Pawar, Lion (PR: 9)

    10. Mykelti Williamson, Fences (PR: 11)

    11. Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water (PR: 12)

    12. Alan Rickman, Eye in the Sky (PR: Not Ranked)

    13. Aaron Eckhart, Bleed for This (PR: 13)

    14. Kevin Costner, Hidden Figures (PR: Not Ranked)

    15. Ben Foster, Hell or High Water (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Warren Beatty, Rules Don’t Apply (moved to Lead Actor list)

    Steve Martin, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk

    Timothy Spall, Denial

    Where the Race Stands…

    Absolutely and 100% percent wide open… so much so that I’m not confident any of my current picks make the final cut. Some would argue Grant is in, but I’m not totally convinced. Shannon is such a well-respected actor that he’s probably in, but reaction has been very mixed on Nocturnal Animals. Neeson and Henderson’s work has yet to be seen. Bottom line: this particular category could change a lot over the next few weeks.

    Best Supporting Actress

    Predicted Nominees

    1. Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 1)

    2. Naomie Harris, Moonlight (PR: 2)

    3. Nicole Kidman, Lion (PR: 3)

    4. Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women (PR: 4)

    5. Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures (PR: 10)

    Other Possibilities

    6. Molly Shannon, Other People (PR: 7)

    7. Elle Fanning, 20th Century Women (PR: 5)

    8. Margo Martindale, The Hollars (PR: 8)

    9. Helen Mirren, Eye in the Sky (PR: 9)

    10. Janelle Monae, Hidden Figures (PR: Not Ranked)

    11. Kristen Stewart, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 6)

    12. Felicity Jones, A Monster Calls (PR: Not Ranked)

    13. Janelle Monae, Moonlight (PR: 13)

    14. Laura Linney, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 11)

    15. Bryce Dallas Howard, Gold (PR: 12)

    Dropped Out:

    Sienna Miller, Live by Night

    Gugu Mbatha-Raw, Miss Sloane

    Where The Race Stands…

    Seemingly with Williams and Harris as the two front runners and it’s been that way for a while after Manchester and Moonlight, respectively, hit the festival circuit. Perhaps one of the two actresses from the not yet screened Hidden Figures (Spencer and Monae, who also got positive notices for Moonlight) could make a play. Otherwise, this looks like a two-way competition at the moment.

    Best Original Screenplay

    Predicted Nominees

    1. La La Land (PR: 1)

    2. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 2)

    3. Jackie (PR: 3)

    4. Moonlight (PR: 4)

    5. 20th Century Women (PR: 6)

    Other Possibilties

    6. Loving (PR: 7)

    7. Hell or High Water (PR: 5)

    8. Toni Erdmann (PR: 9)

    9. Miss Sloane (PR: 8)

    10. I, Daniel Blake (PR: 14)

    11. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 11)

    12. The Lobster (PR: 12)

    13. Allied (PR: 10)

    14. Gold (PR: 13)

    15. Rules Don’t Apply (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Captain Fantastic

    Where the Race Stands…

    As a race that La La Land may not automatically win over Manchester by the Sea. Jackie and Moonlight are also looking solid for nominations with a fifth slot that I keep changing up between 20th Century Women, Loving, and Hell or High Water.

    Best Adapted Screenplay

    Predicted Nominees

    1. Fences (PR: 1)

    2. Silence (PR: 2)

    3. Lion (PR: 3)

    4. Hidden Figures (PR: 7)

    5. Arrival (PR: 6)

    Other Possibilities

    6. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 5)

    7. Love & Friendship (PR: 11)

    8. Live by Night (PR: 8)

    9. Elle (PR: 10)

    10. Sully (PR: 9)

    11. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 4)

    12. The Jungle Book (PR: 14)

    13. Indignation (PR: 12)

    14. Certain Women (PR: 13)

    15. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Denial

    Where the Race Stands…

    In a waiting pattern as Fences and Silence have yet to screen. They could both be heavy hitters. If they both falter, look to Lion. 

    And that does it for this week, folks! Until next time…