Tag: Thor: Ragnarok

Todd’s 2017 Weekly Oscar Predictions: November 9th Edition

It’s Thursday and that means my weekly updated Oscar predictions are in!

Some developments from the past seven days:

  • Steven Spielberg’s The Post is down to just one nomination in my predictions. It’s the big one (Best Picture), but it’s clinging for dear life to the 9th spot with pics like I, Tonya and Get Out getting closer to getting in. Obviously, no one has seen it yet so this is based solely on buzz alone. We did get our first trailer for it this week at long last.
  • Greta Gerwig’s Lady Bird makes a major leap this week into both Picture and Actress (Saoirse Ronan). That means Blade Runner 2049 has fallen out of my predicted nine in Picture with Meryl Streep out in Actress for The Post (she held the #1 spot for weeks).
  • For the first time, Martin McDonagh’s directorial work in Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri is in. That means Luca Guadagnino (Call Me by Your Name) is currently out.
  • In Best Actor, I’ve finally taken Hugh Jackman in The Greatest Showman out of the top 5, replaced with Andrew Garfield in Breathe.
  • Michael Stuhlbarg (Call Me by Your Name) replaces Michael Shannon for The Shape of Water in Supporting Actor. If that happens, Call Me would be the first Supporting Actor race to feature two actors (Stuhlbarg, Armie Hammer) from the same picture since Bugsy in 1991 (Harvey Keitel, Ben Kingsley).
  • Mary J. Blige enters the top 5 in Supporting Actress, replacing Kristin Scott Thomas in Darkest Hour. 

That means all 8 major categories have seen changes. Lastly, there’s the unprecedented news that broke last night involving Christopher Plummer reshooting all of Kevin Spacey’s scenes in Ridley Scott’s All the Money in the World. Shockingly, the studio is still looking to make its December 22 release date. If that happens, Plummer might be one to look out for in Supporting Actor.

Let’s get to it!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dunkirk (Previous Ranking: 1)

2. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)

3. Darkest Hour (PR: 3)

4. Three Billboards Outside, Ebbing Missouri (PR: 6)

5. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 5)

6. Mudbound (PR: 4)

7. Lady Bird (PR: 10)

8. The Florida Project (PR: 7)

9. The Post (PR: 8)

Other Possibilities:

10. I, Tonya (PR: 11)

11. Get Out (PR: 15)

12. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 9)

13. Phantom Thread (PR: 12)

14. Detroit (PR: 14)

15. Last Flag Flying (PR: 13)

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk (PR: 1)

2. Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water (PR: 2)

3. Joe Wright, Darkest Hour (PR: 3)

4. Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 6)

5. Dee Rees, Mudbound (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Luca Guadagnino, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 5)

7. Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird (PR: 9)

8. Sean Baker, The Florida Project (PR: 10)

9. Steven Spielberg, The Post (PR: 8)

10. Denis Villeneuve, Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 7)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour (PR: 1)

2. Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread (PR: 2)

3. Timothee Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 3)

4. Jake Gyllenhaal, Stronger (PR: 4)

5. Andrew Garfield, Breathe (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Hugh Jackman, The Greatest Showman (PR: 5)

7. Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq. (PR: 10)

8. James Franco, The Disaster Artist (PR: 8)

9. Tom Hanks, The Post (PR: 7)

10. Steve Carell, Last Flag Flying (PR: 9)

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 1)

2. Margot Robbie, I, Tonya (PR: 2)

3. Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 4)

4. Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird (PR: 6)

5. Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Meryl Streep, The Post (PR: 3)

7. Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game (PR: 7)

8. Kate Winslet, Wonder Wheel (PR: 8)

9. Judi Dench, Victoria and Abdul (PR: 9)

10. Vicky Krieps, Phantom Thread (PR: 10)

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project (PR: 1)

2. Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 2)

3. Armie Hammer, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 3)

4. Mark Rylance, Dunkirk (PR: 4)

5. Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Michael Shannon, The Shape of Water (PR: 5)

7. Jason Mitchell, Mudbound (PR: 7)

8. Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 9)

9. Ben Mendelsohn, Darkest Hour (PR: 8)

10. Will Poulter, Detroit (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Bryan Cranston, Last Flag Flying

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Allison Janney, I, Tonya (PR: 1)

2. Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird (PR: 3)

3. Melissa Leo, Novitiate (PR: 2)

4. Mary J. Blige, Mudbound (PR: 7)

5. Hong Chau, Downsizing (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Kristin Scott Thomas, Darkest Hour (PR: 4)

7. Holly Hunter, The Big Sick (PR: 6)

8. Claire Foy, Breathe (PR: 8)

9. Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water (PR: 9)

10. Bria Vinaite, The Florida Project (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 1)

2. Mudbound (PR: 2)

3. Molly’s Game (PR: 4)

4. Wonderstruck (PR: 6)

5. Last Flag Flying (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Disaster Artist (PR: 8)

7. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 5)

8. The Beguiled (PR: 7)

9. Stronger (PR: 9)

10. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 10)

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 2)

2. The Shape of Water (PR: 1)

3. Lady Bird (PR: 5)

4. The Florida Project (PR: 4)

5. Get Out (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

6. Darkest Hour (PR: 3)

7. The Big Sick (PR: 6)

8. I, Tonya (PR: 10)

9. The Post (PR: 8)

10. Phantom Thread (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Dunkirk

Best Foreign Language Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. BPM (Beats Per Minute) (PR: 1)

2. In the Fade (PR: 2)

3. Loveless (PR: 8)

4. First, They Killed My Father (PR: 3)

5. The Square (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Foxtrot (PR: 5)

7. Happy End (PR: 4)

8. A Fantastic Woman (PR: 7)

9. Tom of Finland (PR: 10)

10. The Divine Order (PR: 9)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zKDPrpJEGBY

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Coco (PR: 1)

2. The Breadwinner (PR: 2)

3. Loving Vincent (PR: 3)

4. Birdboy: The Forgotten Children (PR: 4)

5. Ferdinand (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Cars 3 (PR: 7)

7. The LEGO Batman Movie (PR: 6)

8. The Big Bad Fox and Other Tales (PR: 10)

9. Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie (PR: 8)

10. Despicable Me 3 (PR: 9)

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Cries from Syria (PR: 4)

2. Jane (PR: 5)

3. City of Ghosts (PR: 1)

5. Icarus (PR: 3)

5. Risk (PR: 2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Human Flow (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Step (PR: 6)

8. Kedi (PR: 10)

9. Long Strange Trip (PR: Not Ranked)

10. One of Us (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

The Death and Life of Marsha P. Johnson

Dina

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)

2. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)

3. Darkest Hour (PR: 3)

4. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 4)

5. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Get Out (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Mudbound (PR: 5)

8. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 8)

9. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 9)

10. Detroit (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

The Post

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 1)

2. Dunkirk (PR: 2)

3. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)

4. Darkest Hour (PR: 4)

5. Wonderstruck (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Phantom Thread (PR: 5)

7. Wonder Wheel (PR: 9)

8. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 8)

9. Mudbound (PR: 7)

10. mother! (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Greatest Showman

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Shape of Water (PR: 1)

2. Darkest Hour (PR: 3)

3. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)

4. Phantom Thread (PR: 4)

5. Dunkirk (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 6)

7. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 8)

8. Wonderstruck (PR: Not Ranked)

9. The Greatest Showman (PR: 7)

10. Wonder Wheel (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Call Me by Your Name

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Phantom Thread (PR: 1)

2. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 2)

3. Darkest Hour (PR: 3)

4. The Greatest Showman (PR: 4)

5. The Beguiled (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wonder Wheel (PR: 8)

7. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 5)

8. Murder on the Orient Express (PR: 10)

9. The Post (PR: 9)

10. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 6)

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Darkest Hour (PR: 1)

2. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)

3. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

4. The Greatest Showman (PR: 4)

5. Phantom Thread (PR: 3)

6. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (PR: Not Ranked)

8. I, Tonya (PR: 5)

9. It (PR: 9)

10. Thor: Ragnarok (PR: 7)

Dropped Out:

Blade Runner 2049

Wonderstruck

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=06HNt_5Qwhg

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 1)

2. War for the Planet of the Apes (PR: 3)

3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 2)

4. The Shape of Water (PR: 4)

5. Dunkirk (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (PR: 6)

7. Spider-Man: Homecoming (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Wonder Woman (PR: 8)

9. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 7)

10. Thor: Rangarok (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Kong: Skull Island

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gJtZYCv7AxA

Best Sound Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)

2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)

3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 3)

4. The Shape of Water (PR: 6)

5. Transformers: The Last Knight (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Baby Driver (PR: 9)

7. Coco (PR: 7)

8. Wonder Woman (PR: 4)

9. War for the Planet of the Apes (PR: 10)

10. Spider-Man: Homecoming (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Detroit

Best Sound Mixing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)

2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)

3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 3)

4. Baby Driver (PR: 6)

5. The Greatest Showman (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Shape of Water (PR: 4)

7. Darkest Hour (PR: 9)

8. Transformers: The Last Knight (PR: 8)

9. Coco (PR: 10)

10. War for the Planet of the Apes (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Detroit

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)

2. Dunkirk (PR: 2)

3. Darkest Hour (PR: 1)

4. Wonderstruck (PR: 4)

5. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 8)

Other Possibilities:

6. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 6)

7. Victoria and Abdul (PR: Not Ranked)

8. The Post (PR: 7)

9. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 9)

10. Coco (PR: 5)

Dropped Out:

The Greatest Showman

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “Stand Up for Something” from Marshall (PR: 2)

2. “Remember Me” from Coco (PR: 1)

3. “I Don’t Wanna Live Forever” from Fifty Shades Darker (PR: 3)

4. “Evermore” from Beauty and the Beast (PR: 4)

5. “Prayers for this World” from Cries from Syria (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Come Alive” from The Greatest Showman (PR: 5)

7. “It Ain’t Fair” from Detroit (PR: 7)

8. “The Promise” from The Promise (PR: 8)

9. “If I Dare” from Battle of the Sexes (PR: Not Ranked)

10. “This is Me” from The Greatest Showman (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

“To Be Human” from Wonder Woman

That leaves the following breakdown of nominations:

11 Nominations

The Shape of Water

10 Nominations

Dunkirk

9 Nominations

Darkest Hour

7 Nominations

Blade Runner 2049

6 Nominations

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

5 Nominations

Call Me by Your Name

4 Nominations

Mudbound, Lady Bird

3 Nominations

The Florida Project, Phantom Thread, Wonderstruck, Beauty and the Beast, Star Wars: The Last Jedi

2 Nominations

I, Tonya, Coco, Cries from Syria, The Greatest Showman

1 Nomination

The Post, Stronger, Breathe, Battle of the Sexes, Novitiate, Downsizing, Molly’s Game, Last Flag Flying, Get Out, BPM (Beats Per Minute), In the Fade, Loveless, First, They Killed My Father, The Square, The Breadwinner, Loving Vincent, The Big Bad Fox and Other Tales, Ferdinand, Jane, City of Ghosts, Icarus, Risk, The Beguiled, War for the Planet of the Apes, Transformers: The Last Knight, Baby Driver, Marshall, Fifty Shades Darker. 

Justice League Box Office Prediction

The DC Cinematic Universe has reached Marvel Cinematic Universe territory as Justice League debuts next weekend. The reported $300 million production brings many of the company’s comic book creations together as it hopes to have the largest opening of the fourth quarter of 2017 until Star Wars hits next month.

In March of 2016, Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice brought Superman (Henry Cavill) and Batman (Ben Affleck) together for the first time. Now they’re joined by Aquaman (Jason Momoa), The Flash (Ezra Miller), and Cyborg (Ray Miller). And, oh yes, there’s Wonder Woman (Gal Gadot), who just happened to star in her own summer 2017 pic that surprisingly turned out to the season’s biggest blockbuster ($412 million). Man of Steel and BvS director Zack Snyder is behind the camera once again. Other costars include series returnees Amy Adams, Diane Lane, Jeremy Irons, and the introduction of J.K. Simmons as Commissioner Gordon. Expect some other familiar faces to pop up too.

Batman v Superman opened to a terrific $166 million a year and a half ago. However, poor reviews and mixed word-of-mouth meant a heavily front loaded gross. It ended up with $330 million. If nothing had happened in the interim, it may be a legitimate question as to whether some moviegoers are primed to see these characters again. The fantastic reception earned by Wonder Woman should help (there could be a sizable female audience who go to this simply to see Gadot’s character so quickly again).

That said, I don’t expect League to get close to that BvS number in its first three days. In fact, it could compete for biggest comic book adaptation debut of the month since Thor: Ragnarok posted $122 million this past weekend.

I believe it will just get there and probably post a premiere in line with another DC property – summer 2016’s Suicide Squad, which made $133 million for its start. I’ll put it just a bit under that.

Justice League opening weekend prediction: $128.4 million

For my Wonder prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/11/08/wonder-box-office-prediction/

For my The Star prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/11/08/the-star-box-office-prediction/

Box Office Predictions: November 10-12

Two notable entries enter the box office derby this weekend as comedy sequel Daddy’s Home 2 with Will Ferrell and Mark Wahlberg and Kenneth Branagh’s Agatha Christie adapted remake Murder on the Orient Express. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on both here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/10/31/daddys-home-2-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/11/01/murder-on-the-orient-express-box-office-prediction/

Neither newbie is likely to come anywhere near dislodging Thor: Ragnarok from a second weekend atop the charts. The critically acclaimed threequel is probably looking at a drop in the mid to possibly high 50s, which is par for the course for most MCU sequels.

The biggest question of the weekend is whether Home or Express nabs the #2 spot. Knowing that comedy sequels often under perform their predecessors (that happened just this past weekend), I’ve got Murder edging out Daddy’s for the runner-up position.

A Bad Moms Christmas should drop to fourth with Jigsaw rounding out the top five.

And with that, my top 5 projections for the weekend ahead:

1. Thor: Ragnarok

Predicted Gross: $53.8 million (representing a drop of 56%)

2. Murder on the Orient Express

Predicted Gross: $24.6 million

3. Daddy’s Home 2

Predicted Gross: $21.8 million

4. A Bad Moms Christmas

Predicted Gross: $8.6 million (representing a drop of 48%)

5. Jigsaw

Predicted Gross: $2.9 million (representing a drop of 57%)

Box Office Results (November 3-5)

Thor: Rangarok easily posted the highest debut in its particular franchise and the 7th largest Marvel Cinematic Universe opening with $122.7 million, topping my $107.6M forecast. Terrific word-of-mouth certainly contributed to it opening nearly $40 million above its predecessor Thor: The Dark World. 

A Bad Moms Christmas had an unimpressive debut in second with $16.7 million over the traditional three-day weekend. I was a bit higher at $18.7 million. The sequel opened on Wednesday and has taken in $21.2 million since then. Again, that’s below my projection of $26.2 million. It failed in five days to earn the $23.8 million accomplished by its predecessor in summer 2016. 

Jigsaw dropped to third with $6.5 million compared to my $5.9 million estimate. The horror pic has grossed $28 million so far.

Boo 2! A Madea Halloween was fourth with $4.5 million (I said $4.1 million) for a $42 million overall tally.

Geostorm rounded out the top five with $3.1 million (I went with $2.7 million) for $28 million total.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Todd’s 2017 Weekly Oscar Predictions: November 2nd Edition

Thursday is here and that means my weekly Oscar predictions have kicked off for the month of November!

And that, ladies and gentlemen, means some changes have arrived. I am now expanding to include every category covering feature-length movies and listing my most likely possibilities in each. Additionally, I am slimming down the Best Picture possibilities from 25 to 15 and now just 10 instead of 15 in the other races.

There are a couple of revisions shown below I would like to cover. First, Steven Spielberg’s The Post has been high on my list for weeks. However, persistent rumors abound that it may not be the surefire contender that it appears to be on paper. Therefore, it’s taken a hit this week. I still have it listed for Picture and Actress (Meryl Streep), but it’s fallen out of my predicted nominees in other categories.

Another change is one that intersects with the news of the day and it cannot be ignored. Due to recent allegations that have surfaced in the last few days, there is little question that Kevin Spacey’s chances for Supporting Actor in All the Money in the World have potentially disappeared. That revision is also reflected today.

Now, for the first time, my thoughts on all the races for the 2017 Oscars:

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dunkirk (Previous Ranking: 1)

2. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)

3. Darkest Hour (PR: 4)

4. Mudbound (PR: 8)

5. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 5)

6. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 6)

7. The Florida Project (PR: 7)

8. The Post (PR: 3)

9. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 9)

Other Possibilities:

10. Lady Bird (PR: 10)

11. I, Tonya (PR: 11)

12. Phantom Thread (PR: 13)

13. Last Flag Flying (PR: 15)

14. Detroit (PR: 12)

15. Get Out (PR: 14)

Dropped Out:

Battle of the Sexes

Downsizing

The Greatest Showman

The Big Sick

All the Money in the World

Star Wars: The Last Jedi

Wonderstruck

Molly’s Game

Wind River

Coco

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk (PR: 1)

2. Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water (PR: 2)

3. Joe Wright, Darkest Hour (PR: 4)

4. Dee Rees, Mudbound (PR: 8)

5. Luca Guadagnino, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 6)

7. Denis Villeneuve, Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 7)

8. Steven Spielberg, The Post (PR: 3)

9. Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird (PR: 10)

10. Sean Baker, The Florida Project (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread

Kathryn Bigelow, Detroit

Jordan Peele, Get Out

Richard Linklater, Last Flag Flying

Craig Gillespie, I, Tonya

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour (PR: 1)

2. Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread (PR: 2)

3. Timothee Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 3)

4. Jake Gyllenhaal, Stronger (PR: 6)

5. Hugh Jackman, The Greatest Showman (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Andrew Garfield, Breathe (PR: 7)

7. Tom Hanks, The Post (PR: 5)

8. James Franco, The Disaster Artist (PR: 8)

9. Steve Carell, Last Flag Flying (PR: 10)

10. Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel Esq. (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Christian Bale, Hostiles

Matt Damon, Downsizing

Jeremy Renner, Wind River

Algee Smith, Detroit

Kumail Nanjiani, The Big Sick

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 2)

2. Margot Robbie, I, Tonya (PR: 3)

3. Meryl Streep, The Post (PR: 1)

4. Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 4)

5. Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird (PR: 6)

7. Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game (PR: 8)

8. Kate Winslet, Wonder Wheel (PR: 7)

9. Judi Dench, Victoria and Abdul (PR: 9)

10. Vicky Krieps, Phantom Thread (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

Daniela Vega, A Fantastic Woman

Brooklyn Prince, The Florida Project

Annette Bening, Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool

Diane Kruger, In the Fade

Michelle Williams, All the Money in the World

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project (PR: 1)

2. Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 2)

3. Armie Hammer, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 3)

4. Mark Rylance, Dunkirk (PR: 4)

5. Michael Shannon, The Shape of Water (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 6)

7. Jason Mitchell, Mudbound (PR: 7)

8. Ben Mendelsohn, Darkest Hour (PR: 8)

9. Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 12)

10. Bryan Cranston, Last Flag Flying (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

Kevin Spacey, All the Money in the World

Will Poulter, Detroit

Christoph Waltz, Downsizing

Patrick Stewart, Logan

Idris Elba, Molly’s Game

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Allison Janney, I, Tonya (PR: 1)

2. Melissa Leo, Novitiate (PR: 2)

3. Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird (PR: 3)

4. Kristin Scott Thomas, Darkest Hour (PR: 5)

5. Hong Chau, Downsizing (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Holly Hunter, The Big Sick (PR: 6)

7. Mary J. Blige, Mudbound (PR: 7)

8. Claire Foy, Breathe (PR: 8)

9. Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water (PR: 9)

10. Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

Kirsten Dunst, The Beguiled

Julianne Moore, Wonderstruck

Tatiana Maslany, Stronger

Millicent Simmonds, Wonderstruck

Sarah Paulson, The Post

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 1)

2. Mudbound (PR: 2)

3. Last Flag Flying (PR: 4)

4. Molly’s Game (PR: 3)

5. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wonderstruck (PR: 5)

7. The Beguiled (PR: 8)

8. The Disaster Artist (PR: 7)

9. Stronger (PR: 10)

10. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

All the Money in the World

Thank You for Your Service

First, They Killed My Father

The Death of Stalin

Wonder

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)

2. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 1)

3. Darkest Hour (PR: 3)

4. The Florida Project (PR: 4)

5. Lady Bird (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Big Sick (PR: 7)

7. Get Out (PR: 8)

8. The Post (PR: 6)

9. Dunkirk (PR: 10)

10. I, Tonya (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Phantom Thread

Downsizing

Wind River

Battle of the Sexes

Coco

Best Foreign Language Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. BPM (Beats Per Minute)

2. In the Fade

3. First, They Killed My Father

4. Happy End

5. Foxtrot

Other Possibilities:

6. The Square

7. A Fantastic Woman

8. Loveless

9. The Divine Order

10. Tom of Finland

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Coco

2. The Breadwinner

3. Loving Vincent

4. Birdbag: The Forgotten Children

5. Ferdinand

Other Possibilities:

6. The LEGO Batman Movie

7. Cars 3

8. Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie

9. Despicable Me 3

10. The Big Bad Fox and Other Tales

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. City of Ghosts

2. Risk

3. Icarus

4. Cries from Syria

5. Jane

Other Possibilities:

6. Step

7. The Death and Life of Marsha P. Johnson

8. Dina

9. One of Us

10. Kedi

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dunkirk

2. The Shape of Water

3. Darkest Hour

4. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

5. Mudbound

Other Possibilities:

6. Blade Runner 2049

7. The Post

8. Star Wars: The Last Jedi

9. Call Me by Your Name

10. Detroit

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Blade Runner 2049

2. Dunkirk

3. The Shape of Water

4. Darkest Hour

5. Phantom Thread

Other Possibilities:

6. Wonderstruck

7. Mudbound

8. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

9. Wonder Wheel

10. The Greatest Showman

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Shape of Water

2. Blade Runner 2049

3. Darkest Hour

4. Phantom Thread

5. Dunkirk

Other Possibilities:

6. Beauty and the Beast

7. The Greatest Showman

8. Star Wars: The Last Jedi

9. Wonder Wheel

10. Call My by Your Name

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Phantom Thread

2. Beauty and the Beast

3. Darkest Hour

4. The Greatest Showman

5. Victoria and Abdul

Other Possibilities:

6. Blade Runner 2049

7. The Beguiled

8. Wonder Wheel

9. The Post

10. Murder on the Orient Express

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Darkest Hour

2. The Shape of Water

3. Phantom Thread

Other Possibilities:

4. The Greatest Showman

5. I, Tonya

6. Beauty and the Beast

7. Thor: Ragnarok

8. Blade Runner 2049

9. It

10. Wonderstruck

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Blade Runner 2049

2. Star Wars: The Last Jedi

3. War for the Planet of the Apes

4. The Shape of Water

5. Dunkirk

Other Possibilities:

6. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2

7. Beauty and the Beast

8. Wonder Woman

9. Thor: Ragnarok

10. Kong: Skull Island

Best Sound Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dunkirk

2. Blade Runner 2049

3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi

4. Wonder Woman

5. Transformers: The Last Knight

Other Possibilities:

6. The Shape of Water

7. Coco

8. Detroit

9. Baby Driver

10. War for the Planet of the Apes

Best Sound Mixing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dunkirk

2. Blade Runner 2049

3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi

4. The Shape of Water

5. The Greatest Showman

Other Possibilities:

6. Baby Driver

7. Detroit

8. Transformers: The Last Knight

9. Darkest Hour

10. Coco

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Darkest Hour

2. Dunkirk

3. The Shape of Water

4. Wonderstruck

5. Coco

Other Possibilities:

6. Star Wars: The Last Jedi

7. The Post

8. Blade Runner 2049

9. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

10. The Greatest Showman

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “Remember Me” from Coco

2. “Stand Up for Something” from Marshall

3. “I Don’t Wanna Live Forever” from Fifty Shades Darker

4. “Evermore” from Beauty and the Beast

5. “Come Alive” from The Greatest Showman

Other Possibilities:

6. “Prayers for this World” from Cries from Syria

7. “It Ain’t Fair” from Detroit

8. “The Promise” from The Promise

9. “This is Me” from The Greatest Showman

10. “To Be Human” from Wonder Woman

And that leaves my inaugural breakdown for number of nominations by each picture:

12 Nominations

The Shape of Water

11 Nominations

Darkest Hour

10 Nominations

Dunkirk

6 Nominations

Blade Runner 2049

5 Nominations

Call Me by Your Name, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, Phantom Thread

4 Nominations

Mudbound, The Greatest Showman

3 Nominations

The Florida Project, Coco, Star Wars: The Last Jedi

2 Nominations

The Post, I, Tonya, Lady Bird, Victoria and Abdul, Beauty and the Beast

1 Nomination

Stronger, Battle of the Sexes, Novitiate, Downsizing, Last Flag Flying, Molly’s Game, First, They Killed My Father, In the Fade, BPM (Beats Per Minute), Happy End, A Fantastic Woman, The Breadwinner, Loving Vincent, Birdbag: The Forgotten Children, Ferdinand, City of Ghosts, Risk, Icarus, Cries from Syria, Jane, War for the Planet of the Apes, Wonder Woman, Transformers: The Last Knight, Wonderstruck, Marshall, Fifty Shades Darker 

Murder on the Orient Express Box Office Prediction

43 years ago, Sidney Lumet’s adaptation of the Agatha Christie murder mystery novel Murder on the Orient Express received six Oscar nods and winning box office results. This time around, it’s Kenneth Branagh both directing and starring in the new version, playing super sleuth Hercule Poirot (portrayed in 1974 by Albert Finney). Just like in the original, an all-star cast surrounds including Johnny Depp, Penelope Cruz, Willem Dafoe, Michelle Pfeiffer, Daisy Ridley, Judi Dench, Josh Gad, Derek Jacobi, and Leslie Odom Jr.

Orient will look to cash in with adult moviegoers and hope that competition doesn’t get in the way. Thor: Ragnarok (by the way, the first Thor was directed by Branagh) will be in its second weekend. Daddy’s Home 2 opens directly against it.

Even though this is a remake based on a well-known property, Murder could stand out among the sequels it’s pitted against. If reviews and word-of-mouth are encouraging, it could additionally play well throughout subsequent weekends.

I’ll predict Express chugs along to a mid 20s opening and it could well compete for the #2 slot with Daddy’s Home 2 as Thor should retain top position in its sophomore frame.

Murder on the Orient Express opening weekend prediction: $24.6 million

For my Daddy’s Home 2 prediction, click here:

Daddy’s Home 2 Box Office Prediction

Daddy’s Home 2 Box Office Prediction

Nearly two years after its predecessor was a major holiday hit, Daddy’s Home 2 looks to replicate that success next weekend. Will Ferrell and Mark Wahlberg are back, but this time instead of concentrating on their rival dad scenario – it’s their dads joining the mix in the form of John Lithgow and Mel Gibson. Sean Anders returns as director. Other costars include Linda Cardellini and John Cena.

When the original Daddy’s opened on Christmas Day in 2015, it exceeded expectations with a $38 million opening weekend and $150 million eventual gross. Many comedic sequels don’t match the performance of the original. I suspect that will be the case here. For one thing, the Christmas weekend is a huge one but this sequel chose a November release date. A Bad Moms Christmas will be in its second weekend for humorous sequel competition, as well as other heavy hitters like the sophomore frame of Thor: Ragnarok and the premiere of Murder on the Orient Express.

My estimate has part 2 opening with a low to possibly 20s gross. That may actually put it in third behind Thor and Murder.

Daddy’s Home 2 opening weekend prediction: $21.8 million

For my Murder on the Orient Express prediction, click here:

Murder on the Orient Express Box Office Prediction

Box Office Predictions: November 3-5

The month of November looks to awaken a sleepy box office with the release of two high-profile sequels: Marvel’s threequel Thor: Ragnarok and comedic follow-up A Bad Moms Christmas. You can peruse my detailed individual prediction posts on each here:

Thor: Ragnarok Box Office Prediction

A Bad Moms Christmas Box Office Prediction

As I see it, Ragnarok is likely to be the first pic in the Thor franchise that reaches over $100 million in its first weekend. With very positive reviews and a strong international debut over the weekend, all the signs are there.

A Bad Moms Christmas opens on Wednesday to give it some breathing room from the Marvel Cinematic Universe juggernaut and I have it earning mid 20s for the five-day and high teens for the traditional three-day.

The rest of the top five should see low grosses from holdovers. Jigsaw had a mediocre debut atop the charts over Halloween weekend (more on that below) and looks to suffer a large decline in its sophomore frame. Boo 2! and Geostorm (or perhaps even Happy Death Day if Geostorm has a large enough decline) should fill the rest of the slots.

And with that, my top 5 projections for the weekend:

1. Thor: Ragnarok

Predicted Gross: $107.6 million

2. A Bad Moms Christmas

Predicted Gross: $18.7 million (Friday to Sunday), $26.2 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

3. Jigsaw

Predicted Gross: $5.9 million (representing a drop of 64%)

4. Boo 2! A Madea Halloween

Predicted Gross: $4.1 million (representing a drop of 59%)

5. Geostorm

Predicted Gross: $2.7 million (representing a drop of 55%)

Box Office Results (October 27-29)

It was expected to be a slow weekend and it certainly was that with the #1 movie doing just OK and other newbies performing even worse. Jigsaw managed a #1 debut with $16.6 million (a bit ahead of my $14.8 million prediction). That’s the second lowest of the eight features in the Saw franchise.

Boo 2! A Madea Halloween dropped to second with $10 million (I went higher at $12.2 million) to bring its two-week tally to $35 million.

Geostorm was third with $5.9 million (I said $5.4 million) to bring its lackluster total to $23 million.

Happy Death Day was fourth with $5 million and I incorrectly had it outside the top 5. The low-budget Blumhouse horror pic brought its solid total to $48 million.

I also whiffed on having Blade Runner 2049 outside the top 5 (thanks under performing newcomers). It earned $4.1 million for an overall gross of $81 million.

Thank You for Your Service, the Miles Teller war drama, underwhelmed in sixth place with $3.8 million, under my $5.4 million forecast. Mostly solid reviews couldn’t get audiences interested enough in this case.

Last (and certainly least in this case), Suburbicon was an absolute disaster, opening in 9th place with just $2.8 million. I was considerably higher at $7.3M. George Clooney’s poorly reviewed crime comedy with Matt Damon stands as one of the worst wide performers of the year.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

A Bad Moms Christmas Box Office Prediction

Last summer, Bad Moms was a breakout comedy that earned $23 million in its first weekend and went on to gross $113 million domestically. STXfilms has wasted no time in capitalizing with holiday themed sequel A Bad Moms Christmas, which opens next Wednesday. Mila Kunis, Kristen Bell, and Kathryn Hahn are back and this time around it’s their moms joining the mix in the form of Christine Baranski, Cheryl Hines, and Susan Sarandon. Jon Lucas and Scott Moore are back handling directorial duties.

The quick turn-around on this follow-up likely means sequelitis will not creep in. Christmas could well serve as smart counter programming for females to the weekend’s giant release that is Thor: Ragnarok. The Wednesday debut will also give it a bit of a head start.

Due to the five-day roll out, the sequel may not quite match the $23 million achieved in its predecessor’s opening weekend. Yet it may get over that number in the Wednesday to Sunday earnings. I’ll estimate a high teens to low 20s premiere for the traditional weekend with mid to high 20s for the entire frame.

A Bad Moms Christmas opening weekend prediction: $18.7 million (Friday to Monday), $26.2 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

For my Thor: Ragnarok prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/10/24/thor-ragnarok-box-office-prediction/

 

 

Thor: Ragnarok Box Office Prediction

The first week of November should kick off in grand fashion for Disney/Marvel as Thor: Ragnarok looks to (yes) hammer all competition. The third installment in the franchise that began in 2011 and continued in 2013, Chris Hemsworth returns as the title character and he’s got his Avenger friend Hulk (Mark Ruffalo) alongside him. Tom Hiddleston returns as fan favorite Loki as well as series regulars Anthony Hopkins and Idris Elba with Cate Blanchett, Jeff Goldblum, and Karl Urban joining the party. Taika Waititi directs.

The reported $180 million production comes four years after the second installment, Thor: The Dark World. In that time frame, the Marvel Cinematic Universe has expanded greatly with all the players set to appear in next summer’s third Avengers picture Infinity War. Reviews for Rangarok suggest it’s the best of the trio with a lighter and more fun tone. It stands at an impressive 98% on the Tomato meter.

2011’s Thor opened to $65 million and its sequel improved upon that performance with $85 million. Their respective domestic tallies were $181 and $206 million. It seems likely that part 3 will continue that upward trajectory. The Thor series is not quite in the realm of what Captain America has accomplished and the third entry in that franchise (last year’s Civil War) was essentially the third Avengers flick, which propelled it to a $179 million premiere.

This is the 17th pic in the MCU and it looks quite possible it will be the 8th to cross the century mark in its opening weekend. I don’t have it getting quite as high as Spider-Man: Homecoming ($117 million) got over the summer, but it should continue the trend of opening with roughly $20 million than its predecessor.

Thor: Ragnarok opening weekend prediction: $107.6 million

For my A Bad Moms Christmas prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/10/25/a-bad-moms-christmas-box-office-prediction/

Box Office Predictions: October 27-29

Before an onslaught of high-profile November titles hit the market, October should close out rather quietly at the box office in this Halloween weekend. There are three new entries making their wide debuts: continuation of the Saw franchise Jigsaw, the Matt Damon starring/George Clooney directed crime comedy Suburbicon, and Miles Teller war drama Thank You for Your Service. You can peruse my detailed individual predictions posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/10/18/jigsaw-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/10/18/suburbicon-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/10/18/thank-you-for-your-service-box-office-prediction/

There are numerous factors that may contribute to this weekend being a slow one. The last frame of October is typically pretty ho-hum regardless. There’s also the matter of a little Netflix show called Stranger Things premiering that could divert eyeballs onto the small screen and not the large one.

The seven year lay-off between Saw pictures could cause a muted debut for Jigsaw. Its number should still be enough to nab the #1 spot, however. Boo 2! should slip to second. It’s worth noting that the original Boo dropped just 39% in its sophomore outing last year over the same Halloween weekend. I have this dipping just a bit more.

I’m not expecting much from Suburbicon or Service and they could end up in a close race with the second weekend of Geostorm (which I expect to have a big drop).

Bottom line: Thor: Ragnarok and A Bad Moms Christmas should awaken the charts when November comes and here are my top 5 projections for this weekend:

1. Jigsaw

Predicted Gross: $14.8 million

2. Boo 2! A Madea Halloween

Predicted Gross: $12.2 million (representing a drop of 42%)

3. Suburbicon

Predicted Gross: $7.3 million

4. Geostorm

Predicted Gross: $5.4 million (representing a drop of 60%)

5. Thank You for Your Service

Predicted Gross: $5.2 million

Box Office Results (October 20-22)

As expected, Tyler Perry’s Boo 2! A Madea Halloween topped the charts with $21.2 million, a tad under my $22.6 million prediction. It falls about $7 million short of its predecessor one year ago, but marks the sixth Madea feature to open #1.

Geostorm ranked highest among the five debuts with $13.7 million, above my $11.2M projection. However, with its massive reported $120 million budget, this is a serious flop for Warner Bros.

Happy Death Day dropped to third with $9.3 million, below my $11.8M take to bring its two-week total to $40 million. With only a $5 million budget, this is quite the cash cow for Blumhouse.

Blade Runner 2049 was fourth and I incorrectly had it outside the top 5. In weekend #3, it earned $7.3 million to bring its disappointing tally to $74 million.

Opening in fifth was the firefighter drama Only the Brave with a meager $6 million, which is on the low-end of expectations and well below my generous $10 million projection.

The Snowman with Michael Fassbender got a chilly reception from audiences in 8th place with just $3.3 million, way below my $8 million forecast.

Lastly, Same Kind of Different as Me flopped in 12th place, opening to $2.5 million. I was right on target with my $2.6 million estimate.

And that does it for now! Until next time…