Tag: Thomasin McKenzie

98th Academy Awards Predictions: May 25th Edition

It’s been three weeks since I’ve updated my predictions for the 98th Academy Awards and a little thing called the Cannes Film Festival has happened since then. The French extravaganza has become increasingly important when figuring out your eventual Oscar ballots. To what extent? Last year’s winner Anora premiered there and took the Palme d’Or while fellow nominees Emilia Pérez and The Substance were also unveiled. In 2023, Anatomy of a Fall‘s Palme victory translated to a BP nomination while The Zone of Interest and Killers of the Flower Moon were also on the slate. 2022 Palme recipient Triangle of Sadness was part of the Academy’s BP ten while Elvis and Top Gun: Maverick premiered out of competition. You get the idea.

This year’s proceedings bestowed top prize to Jafar Panahi’s It Was Just an Accident. And while a Palme d’Or certainly increases a picture’s chances in BP, I’m not ready to vault it into the Oscar top 10. As for the Grand Prix winner (essentially runner-up), I already had Joachim Trier’s Sentimental Value in my ten and the Cannes premiere solidified that projection.

There were performances that gained momentum like Value’s quadrology of Renate Reinsve, Stellan Skarsgård, Elle Fanning, and Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass. Same goes for Jennifer Lawrence in Die, My Love and Cannes Best Actor Wagner Moura for The Secret Agent, who goes from unranked to my top 5.

Per usual, there were movies whose awards consideration hopes faded. That list includes The History of Sound, Alpha, Eddington, and The Phoenician Scheme.

Yet for all the Cannes chatter, my new #1 in BP has nothing to do with that event. I’ve had Luca Guadagnino’s After the Hunt slotted atop that chart over the last few weeks. Truth be told, that’s plain ole guesswork since it has yet to screen. I’m replacing it with Ryan Coogler’s vampire tale Sinners, the box office phenomenon that opened in April. Do I think it’s going to win BP? Probably not though it’s obviously far too early for that call. I do think that it and Sentimental Value (also rising) are the two pics that have been viewed that will not miss the cut.

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (Previous Ranking: 3) (+2)

2. After the Hunt (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Marty Supreme (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Wicked: For Good (PR: 4) (-1)

6. Jay Kelly (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Hamnet (PR: 7) (E)

8. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 10) (+1)

10. The Life of Chuck (PR: 9) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

11. One Battle After Another (PR: 11) (E)

12. Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Bugonia (PR: 12) (-1)

14. It Was Just an Accident (PR: Not Ranked)

15. The Secret Agent (PR: Not Ranked)

16. Frankenstein (PR: 14) (-2)

17. Sound of Falling (PR: Not Ranked)

18. The Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 17) (-1)

19. No Other Choice (PR: 15) (-4)

20. Die, My Love (PR: 16) (-4)

21. Ann Lee (PR: 19) (-2)

22. Rental Family (PR: 22) (E)

23. F1 (PR: 21) (-2)

24. The Smashing Machine (PR: 23) (-1)

25. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Highest 2 Lowest

Michael – the Michael Jackson biopic is reportedly moving to 2026

Is This Thing On?

Alpha

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Luca Guadagnino, After the Hunt (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Andrew Patterson, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Noah Baumbach, Jay Kelly (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Kieber Mendonça Filho, The Secret Agent (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Scott Cooper, Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 14) (E)

15. James Cameron, Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice

Lynne Ramsay, Die, My Love

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Julia Roberts, After the Hunt (PR: 1) (E)

2. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Amanda Seyfried, Ann Lee (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Emma Mackey, Ella McCay (PR: 11) (+1)

11. June Squibb, Eleanor the Great (PR: 9) (-2)

12. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 12) (E)

13. Amy Adams, At the Sea (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Lucy Liu, Rosemead (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Eva Victor, Sorry, Baby (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Margot Robbie, A Big Bold Beautiful Journey

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)

2. Jeremy Allen White, Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 3) (+1)

3. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Matthew McConaughey, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 6) (E)

7. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 7) (E)

8. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone (PR: 9) (E)

10. Denzel Washington, Highest 2 Lowest (PR: Not Ranked – moved from supporting)

11. Colin Farrell, The Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine (PR: 12) (E)

13. Willem Dafoe, Late Fame (PR: 11) (-2)

14. Brendan Fraser, Rental Family (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Matthew McConaughey, The Lost Bus (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Paul Mescal, Hamnet (moved to supporting)

Jaafar Jackson, Michael

Lee Byung-hun, No Other Choice

Andrew Scott, Pressure

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ayo Edebiri, After the Hunt (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Angelina LookingGlass, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 3) (E)

4. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Laura Dern, Jay Kelly (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 8) (E)

9. Hailee Steinfeld, Sinners (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Regina Hall, One Battle After Another (PR: 11) (E)

12. Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine (PR: 10) (-2)

13. Emily Watson, Hamnet (PR: 13) (E)

14. Tilda Swinton, The Ballad of a Small Player (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Thomasin McKenzie, Ann Lee

Glenn Close, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery

Greta Lee, Late Fame

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 1) (E)

2. Andrew Garfield, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (E)

3. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (E)

4. Jeremy Strong, Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: Not Ranked – moved from lead actor)

7. Mark Hamill, The Life of Chuck (PR: 7) (E)

8. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (E)

9. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Robert Pattinson, Die, My Love (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Stephen Graham, Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Miles Caton, Sinners (PR: 9) (-3)

13. Jeffrey Wright, Highest 2 Lowest (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Jack O’Connell, Sinners (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Colman Domingo, Michael

Denzel Washington, Highest 2 Lowest (moved to lead actor)

Bradley Cooper, Is This Thing On?

Brendan Fraser, Pressure

Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein

98th Academy Awards Predictions: May 4th Edition

In my second update for ranked Oscar predictions covering Best Picture, Director, and the four acting derbies, confidence is growing that the force is strong with Ryan Coogler’s Sinners. It moves up two spots to third in Best Picture, Coogler rises a slot to second in Director, and Delroy Lindo is now in my Supporting Actor quintet. Michael B. Jordan, Hailee Steinfeld, and Miles Caton all rise or materialize in Other Possibilities in their respective races.

My Best Picture ten remains intact and same goes for Director, Actress, and Supporting Actress. In Best Actor, I’m putting in Jesse Plemons for Bugonia with Daniel Day-Lewis (Anemone) on the outside looking in. Mr. Lindo from Sinners replaces Colman Domingo for Michael. Domingo’s drop is due to persistent rumors that his film (a biopic of the King of Pop) will move to 2026.

You can read all the movement below and I’ll have another update up in a couple weeks!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. After the Hunt (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Marty Supreme (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sinners (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Wicked: For Good (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 6) (+1)

6. Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (-3)

7. Hamnet (PR: 7) (E)

8. Jay Kelly (PR: 8) (E)

9. The Life of Chuck (PR: 9) (E)

10. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 10) (E)

Other Possibilities:

11. One Battle After Another (PR: 11) (E)

12. Bugonia (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 14) (+1)

14. Frankenstein (PR: 12) (-2)

15. No Other Choice (PR: 16) (+1)

16. Die, My Love (PR: 19) (+3)

17. The Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 17) (E)

18. Highest 2 Lowest (PR: 20) (+2)

19. Ann Lee (PR: 24) (+5)

20. Michael (PR: 18) (-2)

21. F1 (PR: 22) (+1)

22 Rental Family (PR: Not Ranked)

23. The Smashing Machine (PR: 15) (-8)

24. Alpha (PR: 25) (+1)

25. Is This Thing On? (PR: 23) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Kiss of the Spider Woman

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Luca Guadagnino, After the Hunt (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Andrew Patterson, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (E)

7. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PRP 7) (E)

8. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Noah Baumbach, Jay Kelly (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 8) (-3)

12. Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice (PR: 15) (+3)

13. James Cameron, Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Scott Cooper, Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Lynne Ramsay, Die, My Love (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Mike Flanagan, The Life of Chuck

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Julia Roberts, After the Hunt (PR: 1) (E)

2. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)

3. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (E)

4. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)

5. Amanda Seyfried, Ann Lee (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 7) (-1)

9. June Squibb, Eleanor the Great (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (PR: 10) (E)

11. Emma Mackey, Ella McCay (PR: 11) (E)

12. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 12) (E)

13. Lucy Liu, Rosemead (PR: 14) (+1)

14. Eva Victor, Sorry, Baby (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Margot Robbie, A Big Bold Beautiful Journey (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Jodie Foster, Vie privée

Olivia Colman, The Roses

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)

2. Matthew McConaughey, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 2) (E)

3. Jeremy Allen White, Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 3) (E)

4. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 6) (E)

7. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone (PR: 5) (-4)

10. Colin Farrell, The Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Willem Dafoe, Late Fame (PR: 11) (E)

12. Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine (PR: 8) (-4)

13. Jaafar Jackson, Michael (PR: 13) (E)

14. Lee Byung-hun, No Other Choice (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Andrew Scott, Pressure (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Matthew McConaughey, The Lost Bus

Oscar Isaac, Frankenstein

Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)

2. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 2) (E)

3. Angelina LookingGlass, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 3) (E)

4. Ayo Edebiri, After the Hunt (PR: 4) (E)

5. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Laura Dern, Jay Kelly (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Hailee Steinfeld, Sinners (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (-3)

10. Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Regina Hall, One Battle After Another (PR: 11) (E)

11. Thomasin McKenzie, Ann Lee (PR: 15) (+4)

13. Emily Watson, Hamnet (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Glenn Close, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Greta Lee, Late Fame (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

America Ferrera, The Lost Bus

Nia Long, Michael

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 1) (E)

2. Andrew Garfield, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (E)

3. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (E)

4. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Jeremy Strong, Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Colman Domingo, Michael (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Mark Hamill, The Life of Chuck (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (E)

9. Miles Caton, Sinners (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Denzel Washington, Highest 2 Lowest (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Jeffrey Wright, Highest 2 Lowest (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Bradley Cooper, Is This Thing On? (PR: 14) (+1)

14. Brendan Fraser, Pressure (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Andrew Scott, Blue Moon

Robert Pattinson, Die, My Love

Tyler, the Creator, Marty Supreme

98th Academy Awards Predictions: April 21st Edition

A month and change after the 97th ceremony, it is time for my first ranked predictions in Best Picture, Director, and the four acting derbies! I gave you my first numbered looks around the same juncture in 2023 and 2024. Two years ago, my April outlook yielded the winners being mentioned in Picture and Director (Oppenheimer and Christopher Nolan), Actress (Emma Stone for Poor Things), Actor (Oppenheimer‘s Cillian Murphy), Supporting Actress (Da’Vine Joy Randolph for The Holdovers), and Supporting Actor (Robert Downey Jr. in Oppenheimer). Last year… not so much.

Neither Anora, its maker (Sean Baker), or Anora herself (Mikey Madison) were named in April of 2024. The film would debut a month later at Cannes and vault itself into contention. The Brutalist also wasn’t on my radar so no mention of Adrien Brody in Actor. In the supporting fields, Zoe Saldaña for Emilia Pérez was initially ranked 11th while Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain) was listed in fourth. Hindsight is 20/20 for 2024, but I had Steve McQueen’s Blitz in first position in Best Picture exactly one year ago. It would go onto receive 0 nominations (pressure is on… After the Hunt).

Let’s get some key caveats out of the way. Some of the performers listed in lead will end up in supporting and vice versa. Some of the pictures will get pushed back to 2026. Obviously there will be movies that turn out underwhelming and disappear from the awards conversation. Festival titles not listed today will rise up and contend.

You can expect these predictions will be updated every couple of weeks before it turns into a weekly post (probably in the late summer or early fall when festival season goes into overdrive).

This inaugural preview comes as Ryan Coogler’s Sinners rules the box office with terrific reviews and word-of-mouth. At the moment, its Oscar future looks bright. Let’s see how that sentence reads several months down the line.

With all that out of the way – here are my first ranked takes!

BEST PICTURE

Predicted Nominees:

1. After the Hunt

2. Marty Supreme

3. Sentimental Value

4. Wicked: For Good

5. Sinners

6. The Rivals of Amziah King

7. Hamnet

8. Jay Kelly

9. The Life of Chuck

10. Avatar: Fire and Ash

Other Possibilities:

11. One Battle After Another

12. Frankenstein

13. Bugonia

14. Deliver Me from Nowhere

15. The Smashing Machine

16. No Other Choice

17. The Ballad of a Small Player

18. Michael

19. Die, My Love

20. Highest 2 Lowest

21. Kiss of the Spider Woman

22. F1

23. Is This Thing On?

24. Ann Lee

25. Alpha

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Luca Guadagnino, After the Hunt

2. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme

3. Ryan Coogler, Sinners

4. Andrew Patterson, The Rivals of Amziah King

5. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value

Other Possibilities:

6. Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good

7. Chloe Zhao, Hamnet

8. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein

9. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another

10. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia

11. Noah Baumbach, Jay Kelly

12. James Cameron, Avatar: Fire and Ash

13. Scott Cooper, Deliver Me From Nowhere

14. Mike Flanagan, The Life of Chuck

15. Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Julia Roberts, After the Hunt

2. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good

3. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value

4. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet

5. Amanda Seyfried, Ann Lee

Other Possibilities:

6. Emma Stone, Bugonia

7. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You

8. June Squibb, Eleanor the Great

9. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love

10. Tessa Thompson, Hedda

11. Emma Mackey, Ella McCay

12. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night

13. Jodie Foster, Vie privée

14. Lucy Liu, Rosemead

15. Olivia Colman, The Roses

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme

2. Matthew McConaughey, The Rivals of Amziah King

3. Jeremy Allen White, Deliver Me from Nowhere

4. George Clooney, Jay Kelly

5. Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone

Other Possibilities:

6. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another

7. Paul Mescal, Hamnet

8. Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine

9. Colin Farrell, The Ballad of a Small Player

10. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners

11. Willem Dafoe, Late Fame

12. Matthew McConaughey, The Lost Bus

13. Jaafar Jackson, Michael

14. Oscar Isaac, Frankenstein

15. Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good

2. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme

3. Angelina LookingGlass, The Rivals of Amziah King

4. Ayo Edebiri, After the Hunt

5. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another

Other Possibilities:

6. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value

7. Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman

8. Laura Dern, Jay Kelly

9. Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine

10. America Ferrera, The Lost Bus

11. Regina Hall, One Battle After Another

12. Emily Watson, Hamnet

13. Glenn Close, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery

14. Nia Long, Michael

15. Thomasin McKenzie, Ann Lee

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly

2. Andrew Garfield, After the Hunt

3. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value

4. Colman Domingo, Michael

5. Jeremy Strong, Deliver Me from Nowhere

Other Possibilities:

6. Mark Hamill, The Life of Chuck

7. Delroy Lindo, Sinners

8. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another

9. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good

10. Denzel Washington, Highest 2 Lowest

11. Jeffrey Wright, Highest 2 Lowest

12. Andrew Scott, Blue Moon

13. Robert Pattinson, Die, My Love

14. Bradley Cooper, Is This Thing On?

15. Tyler, the Creator, Marty Supreme

You can expect another update shortly before the Cannes Film Festival kicks off where contenders like Sentimental Value, The Phoenician Scheme, Alpha, Eddington, Eleanor the Great, and Highest 2 Lowest will get their initial screenings.

Oscar Predictions: Eileen

Eileen is director William Oldroyd’s sophomore feature after his well-reviewed 2016 rendering of Lady Macbeth with Florence Pugh. This psychological thriller/romance set in the 1960s is based on Ottessa Moshfegh’s 2015 novel and has premiered at Sundance. Thomasin McKenzie and Anne Hathaway headline with a supporting cast including Shea Whigham, Owen Teague, and Marin Ireland.

It is already clear this project will generate lots of attention. A number of early takes are raves with some claiming career best work from McKenzie and Hathaway. Ireland is also being singled out as a scene stealer. There’s said to be a twist in the proceedings that has divided critics and may do the same with audiences.

At Sundance, plenty of pics are looking for distribution and Eileen (with comparisons to Carol and Hitchcock) should easily be snatched up. If an awards campaign is in the cards, we’ll see if the trio of actresses can materialize in the convo or if Adapted Screenplay is feasible. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

The Power of the Dog Review

Jane Campion’s The Power of the Dog is exceedingly gorgeous in its landscapes where New Zealand fills in for Montana circa 1925. It features four superb performances ranging from borderline or full throttle psychopaths to one character trying to keep a semblance of order on the remote cattle ranch setting. The score by Johnny Greenwood is haunting as each chapter ratchets up the tension. A lot of Power is indeed compelling, but I’d be untruthful if I didn’t say you have to comb through some laborious sections as well.

Based on a 1967 novel by Thomas Savage (where the themes were far more taboo than in 2021), we open with Peter (Kodi Smit-McPhee) declaring a need to protect his fragile mother Rose (Kirsten Dunst) at all costs. Widowed under tragic circumstances, she runs an inn frequented by cowboys and their bosses. When kindly ranch owner George Burbank (Jesse Plemons) comes into town, a rather unromantic bond is formed with Rose and they marry. This does not sit well with George’s opposite of kindly brother Phil (Benedict Cumberbatch) who sees his new sister-in-law as an oppotunist. He also takes to mocking Peter, an effeminate aspiring surgeon.

When the dysfunctional new family reaches the cold Burbank estate (in temperature and atmosphere), Phil’s tormenting continues for the new houseguests. This leads to Rose’s alcoholism while George is a helpless bystander. Yet Phil’s own backstory, including a mentorship with a departed male figure known as Bronco Henry, hints that Peter’s presence may cut a bit too close to the bone.

An unwashed bully walking a tightrope of repression, Cumberbatch is given a scenery chewing role. And what scenery as we forget that Campion’s native New Zealand doesn’t really look like Montana. Dunst is a sorrowful figure who can’t play piano at a fancy party dinner that the Governor (Keith Carradine) attends. She can’t play the happy wife either and her union with George seems born out of convenience. Plemons is saddled with least developed character. All three are first-rate in the portrayals.

Smit-McPhee is the most intriguing of them all. Peter’s character is certainly ahead of his time given the era and it turns out he’s steps ahead of where we still the plot eventually turn.

I say eventually because the pacing of Power is a bit off. It takes awhile to ramp up. That’s made more tolerable by the beauty surrounding the ugly situation this quartet finds themselves in. The source material is over a half century old though it does feature a call for personal protective equipment that feels urgent. The catcalls greeting Peter in the near century old time are tragic but his response reaps narrative rewards. This Dog saves most of the bite for later. Getting there is ultimately worth it.

*** (out of four)

Last Night in Soho Review

Edgar Wright’s Last Night in Soho is about romanticism and the death (often the grisly variety) of it. In this ghost story, the filmmaker pays homage to a far gone thrilling and swinging era in mid 1960s London while maintaining that the nostalgia of those who didn’t live through it might be displaced.

Eloise Turner (Thomasin McKenzie) looks at the period from her starry eyes and an ear tuned to its luscious record. She’s only been to present era London as a young girl having grown up in the countryside with her grandmother (Rita Tushingham). Her mother is departed in tragic circumstances that hint she mentally couldn’t handle the glitzy big city life. Her father is as much an apparition as others she encounters.

A college student attending fashion school, Eloise is swiftly out of her element with her snooty dorm mates. Relocating to an upstairs room in a home run by the strict Ms Collins (the late Diana Rigg), her clairvoyance that often includes matriarchal visions moves right along with her. They involve Sandie (Anya Taylor-Joy), an aspiring singer in 1966 whose ambition introduces her to agent Jack (Matt Smith). He’s all charm at first, but darkness lurks with him and many other not so English gentlemen.

As Eloise begins to experience nightly visions of Sandie’s struggles, her own behavior rightfully begins to alarm those in her orbit. That includes John (Michael Ajao), a classmate and potential love interest who’s often the only Londoner that’s kind to her. On the not so nice list is a customer (Terence Stamp) at the local watering hole, a hub of both glamour and glumness 60 years ago, where Eloise works. He might be the key to Sandie’s backstory.

Whether in zombie comedies like Shaun of the Dead or Baby Driver (where he figured out a way to make car chases cool again), Wright is a filmmaker with style to spare. Soho is a glorious visual spectacle that shows its work in explaining how Eloise is so taken with the period. And he may be second only to Tarantino nowadays when it comes to killer needle drops in the soundtrack.

Last Night in Soho may not significantly alter the mix in the spirits genre, but Wright certainly has a flair for it. He cheekily employs some British legends like Rigg and Stamp in this ferocious happening. For the former especially, it’s a delicious final role. McKenzie and Taylor-Joy mirror each other in the quality of their performances that grow more terror struck as the clock ticks. Sandie’s London journey begins with hope and ends with her bridge to stardom falling down. Eloise is there to witness it while gasping in horror. We are there to witness Wright at the top of his game.

***1/2 (out of four)

Last Night in Soho Box Office Prediction

Edgar Wright’s latest vehicle Last Night in Soho zooms into theaters October 29th, four years after his massive success Baby Driver. The psychological horror thriller, set in mid 60s London, features Thomasin McKenzie, Anya Taylor-Joy, Matt Smith, Terence Stamp, and Diana Rigg in her final role.

Soho premiered at the Venice Film Festival in early September and garnered  mixed buzz. The Rotten Tomatoes meter is parked at 70%. The overseas reaction took the pic out of awards contention but Focus Features is hoping horror fans turn out on Halloween weekend.

That could be a challenge. This doesn’t look like your average genre fare and that could keep younger viewers away. It also has Antlers debuting against it and, perhaps most notably, Halloween Kills will be in its third frame. We have seen time and again that original material hoping for an adult crowd has struggled at multiplexes in recent times.

I assume that struggle will apply here. The studio is probably hoping for a $10 million start. Soho may be lucky to reach half of that figure.

Last Night in Soho opening weekend prediction: $5.2 million

For my Antlers prediction, click here:

Antlers Box Office Prediction

For my My Hero Academia: World Heroes’ Mission prediction, click here:

My Hero Academia: World Heroes’ Mission Box Office Prediction

For my The French Dispatch prediction, click here:

The French Dispatch Box Office Prediction

For my A Mouthful of Air prediction, click here:

A Mouthful of Air Box Office Prediction

Old Review

M. Night Shyamalan’s latest is Old and it plays like a long Twilight Zone episode which rapidly puts its subjects in that time frame of their lives. If you’ve seen the trailer or TV spots, what you see is essentially what you get. The writer/director is responsible for putting this uninteresting group on a gorgeous beach. That’s in the figurative sense since he created them. It’s also in the literal way because Shyamalan casts himself as the driver who takes them there.

Guy (Gael Garcia Bernal) and Prisca Cappa (Vicky Krieps) are on the verge of splitting up and they take their 6-year-old boy and 11-year-old daughter on a tropical excursion before they break the news. They know this is meant to be a short-lived paradise, but they get more than they bargained for. You know how parents say their youngsters act like teenagers before they should? It happens here.

The Cappas are taken to a secluded area of the island for R & R. Joining them are a surgeon (Rufus Sewell) and his snotty wife (Abbey Lee) and their 6-year-old going on 11…13…15 (eventually played by Eliza Scanlen). There’s a nurse (Ken Leung) and his wife (Nikki Amuka-Bird) that’s prone to seizures. In the latest example of eye rolling character choices, we also have a hemophiliac rapper (Aaron Pierre) who goes by the name of Mid-Sized Sedan. This might an even more cringe worthy use of a hip hop reference than James McAvoy’s MC skills in Split. 

Once placed in the breathtaking locale, all the vacationers discover they’re aging approximately one year every half hour. This is, of course, first noticed with the children. The Cappa kids morph into Thomasin McKenzie and Alex Wolff. Their elders fall prey to the typical signs of advanced age – disease, Alzheimers, low calcium content. Poor Mid-Sized Sedan never gets the chance to trade in for a cooler sounding vehicle name.

In Shyamalan’s best features (The Sixth Sense, Unbreakable, Signs), the auteur created pretty interesting characters to place in his twisty tales. That is just not the case with this group. Even a coasting Shyamalan is reliable for a few thrills, but they don’t roll in too often.

Too much of Old is filled with his clunky dialogue. The kids talk like adults before they actually are a few hours later. The surprise developments toward the end (which aren’t all that shocking) hint at a larger picture. They may have been engrossing had we not been subjected to an hour and a half of watching this dull lot waste away. This could have made a nifty Twilight Zone episode because that program ran 30 minutes. In Shyamalan’s labored production, it feels closer to a year.

** (out of four)

Oscar Predictions: Last Night in Soho

A time travel thriller mixed with horror, Venice fest goers have been highly anticipating Edgar Wright’s Last Night in Soho. Hitting theaters in late October, this is the auteur’s follow-up to 2017’s Baby Driver. That sleeper hit managed three Oscar nominations in both sound races (when there were two) and Film Editing.

Thomasin McKenzie headlines a cast that includes Anya Taylor-Joy (hot off The Queen’s Gambit), Matt Smith, Diana Rigg (in her final role), and Terence Stamp. Though the genre doesn’t lend itself often to awards attention, it seems like Wright could eventually break through with an Academy player.

Based on the early buzz, Soho doesn’t seem to be it. While some reviews are gushing, others are mixed to negative and the Rotten Tomatoes meter is currently 71%. I would say the only races where it could contend are Production Design, Costume Design, and Makeup and Hairstyling. It’s also entirely possible the Academy ignores it altogether. My Oscar Prediction posts for the films of 2021 will continue…

Venice Film Festival: A Preview

The Venice Film Festival kicks off on Wednesday this week. For this blogger, it means my Oscar speculation will kick into overdrive. You can anticipate a flurry of Oscar Watch posts starting September 1st and continuing throughout the month as the Telluride fest transpires over Labor Day weekend. Toronto is right behind beginning September 9th.

To put it all in perspective, the eventual Best Picture winner has premiered at this trio of festivals more often than not lately. Nomadland (last year’s victor) started off in Venice and won the Golden Lion, which is the equivalent to BP. The same narrative holds true for 2017’s The Shape of Water. 2018’s Green Book debuted at Toronto. 2016’s Moonlight premiered at Telluride. 2015’s Spotlight rolled out at Venice and 2014’s Birdman opened that festival. You get the idea.

So what are the highest profile titles jockeying for position? What are the movies that could become instant hopefuls for the Academy’s attention? I’m glad you asked. Let’s take a look, shall we?

The Power of the Dog

In 1993, director Jane Campion had her last major Oscar contender with The Piano. It won Best Actress for Holly Hunter, Supporting Actress for Anna Paquin, and Original Screenplay for Campion. She became the first female ever to be nominated for Best Director (losing that race and Picture to Steven Spielberg’s Schindler’s List).

Her latest is The Power of the Dog and it will be a mainstay on the festival circuit before its theatrical release in November that’s followed by an early December Netflix bow. Dog is, on paper, the film that prognosticators like me are looking at as an early favorite.

In my previous weekly rankings, I have Dog listed at #1 in Picture, Director, Actor (Cumberbatch), and Adapted Screenplay. Dunst and Plemons are, respectively, ranked second in Supporting Actress and Actor.

We will know quite soon whether it lives up to the hype.

Parallel Mothers

Pedro Almodovar’s latest will open the proceedings on Tuesday. The Spanish language drama stars Penelope Cruz and she could be a factor in what appears to be a potentially crowded Best Actress derby. Original Screenplay and Best International Feature Film could also be races where it contends. Just two years back, the auteur’s previous work Pain and Glory was nominated in the international competition and it nabbed Antonio Banderas a Best Actor nod.

Additionally, Cruz and Banderas star in the comedy Official Competition, which is also premiering here. It may also be one to keep an eye on.

Spencer

Speaking of that Best Actress race which features numerous players, that holds true with Spencer. Pablo Larrain’s biopic about Princess Diana may propel Kristen Stewart to her first nomination. Larrain directed Natalie Portman and she made the final five as Jackie from 2016. Will Stewart break through on the awards front after a series of post Twilight acclaimed roles? The answer is coming.

The Hand of God

Another Netflix property is this Italian drama from Paolo Sorrentino, whose 2013 effort The Great Beauty dominated the foreign language races at the Oscars and Globes. His latest could be another contender and I will be keeping an eye on whether it could branch out to Best Picture (like Roma and Parasite recently did).

The Card Counter

Paul Schrader’s last pic First Reformed received an Original Screenplay nod for its filmmaker. His latest crime drama features Oscar Isaac, Tiffany Haddish, and Willem Dafoe. I haven’t had this featured at all in my weekly predictions, but a splashy Venice rollout could alter that.

Dune

The Card Counter cannot claim the title of being Oscar Isaac’s most breathlessly awaited arrival. That would be Dune from Denis Villeneuve as the sci-fi epic is debuting out of competition. Originally slated for 2020, Dune could be a major awards threat in lots of categories (especially the technical ones). Whether it is Best Picture material will soon be established.

The Lost Daughter

Maggie Gyllenhaal directs Olivia Colman in the Netflix drama slated for late December. Colman has been nominated in two out of the three years at the big show. She won in 2018 for The Favourite in Best Actress and got a mention in supporting last year for The Father. 

Last Night in Soho

Edgar Wright psychological horror experience features Thomasin McKenzie and Anya Taylor-Joy (coming off her heralded role on The Queen’s Gambit). The genre is not one usually geared to Oscar love, but you never know.

The Last Duel

Ridley Scott has not one, but two competitors seeking awards attention in 2021. The most obvious is House of Gucci. The other is this historical drama with Jodie Comer (another possibility in Actress), Matt Damon, Adam Driver, and Ben Affleck. We will soon know whether Scott has two pics in the mix.

And that’s just some of what I’m watching out for, folks! Get ready as the Oscar picture should become clearer in the coming days and I’ll be here to cover it…