Tag: The Revenant

Todd’s Weekly Oscar Predictions: January 8th Edition

We have arrived at my weekly Friday predictions for who and what will be nominated for the Oscars honoring 2015 pictures. This will be the last Friday I’ll be doing so because the nominations themselves come out this Thursday, January 14th. I will have one final post of predictions either on Tuesday or Wednesday next week.

One consistent source of consternation is whether Rooney Mara will be nominated in lead Actress or Supporting Actress for Carol (same goes, to a lesser degree, for Alicia Vikander’s work in The Danish Girl). Last week, I had her in Actress, but now I’m switching back to Supporting. We shall see. As with my posts every week, it will show where the movers and shakers have shifted around with chances of nomination.

So here goes… my penultimate Oscar predictions…

Best Picture

  1. Spotlight (No Change)
  2. The Big Short (+1)
  3. Mad Max: Fury Road (+1)
  4. Room (-2)
  5. The Martian (+1)
  6. The Revenant (+1)
  7. Carol (-2)
  8. Bridge of Spies (+1)
  9. Brooklyn (-1)

Other Possibilities:

10. Straight Outta Compton (+3)

11. Star Wars: The Force Awakens (-1)

12. The Hateful Eight (No Change)

13. Inside Out (-2)

14. Sicario (+4)

15. Beasts of No Nation (-1)

16. Steve Jobs (No Change)

17. Trumbo (+2)

18. Ex Machina (Previously Unranked)

19. The Danish Girl (+1)

20. Son of Saul (-5)

21. Creed (-4)

DROPPED OUT: Anomalisa

WHAT’S CHANGED: No Changes

Best Director

  1. George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road (+1)
  2. Tom McCarthy, Spotlight (-1)
  3. Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, The Revenant (+1)
  4. Ridley Scott, The Martian (-1)
  5. Todd Haynes, Carol (No Change)

Other Possibilities:

6. Adam McKay, The Big Short (No Change)

7. Steven Spielberg, Bridge of Spies (+1)

8. Lenny Abrahamson, Room (-1)

9. John Crowley, Brooklyn (+3)

10. Quentin Tarantino, The Hateful Eight (-1)

11. F. Gary Gray, Straight Outta Compton (Previously Unranked)

12. J.J. Abrams, Star Wars: The Force Awakens (-1)

13. Denis Villenueve, Sicario (Previously Unranked)

14. Cary Fukanaga, Beasts of No Nation (-1)

15. Laszlo Nemes, Son of Saul (-5)

DROPPED OUT: Ryan Coogler, Creed

WHAT’S CHANGED: No Changes

Best Actor

  1. Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant (No Change)
  2. Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl (+1)
  3. Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs (-1)
  4. Bryan Cranston, Trumbo (+1)
  5. Steve Carell, The Big Short (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Matt Damon, The Martian (-2)

7. Will Smith, Concussion (No Change)

8. Johnny Depp, Black Mass (-2)

9. Ian McKellen, Mr. Holmes (+1)

10. Michael Caine, Youth (-1)

11. Geza Rohrig, Son of Saul (+2)

12. Michael B. Jordan, Creed (-1)

DROPPED OUT: Tom Hanks, Bridge of Spies

WHAT’S CHANGED – In: Carell. Out: Damon.

Best Actress

  1. Brie Larson, Room (No Change)
  2. Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn (No Change)
  3. Cate Blanchett, Carol (No Change)
  4. Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years (+2)
  5. Jennifer Lawrence, Joy (No Change)

Other Possibilities:

6. Rooney Mara, Carol (-2) MOVED TO SUPPORTING

7. Charlize Theron, Mad Max: Fury Road (No Change)

8. Helen Mirren, Woman in Gold (+1)

9. Sarah Silverman, I Smile Back (Previously Unranked)

10. Blythe Danner, I’ll See You in My Dreams (-2)

11. Emily Blunt, Sicario (Previously Unranked)

WHAT’S CHANGED – In: Rampling. Out: Mara (moved to supporting)

Best Supporting Actor

  1. Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies (No Change)
  2. Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation (+1)
  3. Sylvester Stallone, Creed (-1)
  4. Christian Bale, The Big Short (No Change)
  5. Paul Dano, Love and Mercy (+4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Michael Keaton, Spotlight (No Change)

7. Michael Shannon, 99 Homes (-2)

8. Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight (-1)

9. Tom Hardy, The Revenant (-1)

10. Benicio del Toro, Sicario (+1)

11. Jacob Tremblay, Room (-1)

WHAT’S CHANGED – In: Dano. Out: Shannon.

Best Supporting Actress

  1. Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl (+2)
  2. Rooney Mara, Carol (Previously Ranked in lead Actress)
  3. Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight (-2)
  4. Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs (-2)
  5. Jane Fonda, Youth (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Helen Mirren, Trumbo (-2)

7. Kristen Stewart, Clouds of Sils Maria (+2)

8. Joan Allen, Room (-3)

9. Rachel McAdams, Spotlight (-3)

10. Alicia Vikander, Ex Machina (-2)

11. Elizabeth Banks, Love and Mercy (-1)

WHAT’S CHANGED – In: Mara, Fonda. Out: Mirren, Allen.

Best Original Screenplay

  1. Spotlight (No Change)
  2. Inside Out (No Change)
  3. The Hateful Eight (No Change)
  4. Bridge of Spies (No Change)
  5. Ex Machina (No Change)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sicario (+4)

7. Straight Outta Compton (-1)

8. Love and Mercy (-1)

9. Trainwreck (Previously Unranked)

10. Mad Max: Fury Road (Previously Unranked)

11. Son of Saul (-2)

12. 99 Homes (-4)

DROPPED OUT: Joy

WHAT’S CHANGED: No Changes

Best Adapted Screenplay

  1. The Big Short (No Change)
  2. Carol (+1)
  3. Room (-1)
  4. Brooklyn (+1)
  5. Steve Jobs (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Martian (No Change)

7. Trumbo (+3)

8. The Revenant (-1)

9. Beasts of No Nation (-1)

10. The Danish Girl (+2)

11. Anomalisa (-2)

DROPPED OUT: Creed, Mad Max: Fury Road (moved to Original)

WHAT’S CHANGED: No Changes

Best Animated Feature

  1. Inside Out (No Change)
  2. Anomalisa (No Change)
  3. Shaun the Sheep Movie (No Change)
  4. Kahlil Gabran’s The Prophet (+1)
  5. The Good Dinosaur (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Peanuts Movie (-2)

7. When Marnie Was There (No Change)

DROPPED OUT: Minions

WHAT’S CHANGED – In: The Good Dinosaur. Out: The Peanuts Movie.

Best Production Design

  1. The Danish Girl (+1)
  2. Carol (-1)
  3. Mad Max: Fury Road (No Change)
  4. Bridge of Spies (No Change)
  5. Brooklyn (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Hateful Eight (-1)

7. Cinderella (-1)

8. MacBeth (+3)

9. The Revenant (-1)

10. Far From the Madding Crowd (No Change)

11. Star Wars: The Force Awakens (-2)

WHAT’S CHANGED – In: Brooklyn. Out: The Hateful Eight.

Best Cinematography

  1. The Revenant (No Change)
  2. Mad Max: Fury Road (+1)
  3. The Hateful Eight (-1)
  4. Sicario (No Change)
  5. Bridge of Spies (No Change)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Martian (No Change)

7. Carol (+1)

8. The Assassin (Previously Unranked)

9. Son of Saul (-2)

DROPPED OFF: Star Wars: The Force Awakens

WHAT’S CHANGED: No Changes

Best Costume Design

  1. The Danish Girl (+1)
  2. Carol (-1)
  3. Brooklyn (+1)
  4. Cinderella (-1)
  5. Far from the Madding Crowd (No Change)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Hateful Eight (No Change)

7. Suffragette (+3)

8. Trumbo (Previously Unranked)

9. The Revenant (No Change)

10. MacBeth (-2)

11. Star Wars: The Force Awakens (No Change)

12. Mad Max: Fury Road (-5)

WHAT’S CHANGED: No Changes

Best Editing

  1. Mad Max: Fury Road (No Change)
  2. The Big Short (+5)
  3. The Martian (+1)
  4. The Revenant (-2)
  5. Spotlight (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Steve Jobs (-1)

7. Bridge of Spies (+1)

8. Room (+4)

9. The Hateful Eight (No Change)

10. Sicario (-4)

11. Straight Outta Compton (Previously Unranked)

12. Star Wars: The Force Awakens (-2)

DROPPED OUT: Carol

WHAT’S CHANGED – In: The Big Short. Out: Steve Jobs.

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

  1. Mad Max: Fury Road (No Change)
  2. Black Mass (+1)
  3. The Revenant (-1)

Other Possibilities:

4. The 100 Year Old Man Who Climbed Out of the Window and Disappeared (+2)

5. Concussion (-1)

6. Mr. Holmes (-1)

7. Legend (No Change)

WHAT’S CHANGED: No Changes

Best Sound Mixing

  1. Mad Max: Fury Road (No Change)
  2. The Martian (+2)
  3. Star Wars: The Force Awakens (-1)
  4. Sicario (+1)
  5. The Revenant (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Hateful Eight (No Change)

7. Jurassic World (+1)

8. In the Heart of the Sea (-1)

WHAT’S CHANGED: No Changes

Best Sound Editing

  1. Mad Max: Fury Road (No Change)
  2. Star Wars: The Force Awakens (+1)
  3. The Revenant (-1)
  4. The Martian (No Change)
  5. Sicario (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Hateful Eight (+1)

7. In the Heart of the Sea (-2)

8. Jurassic World (No Change)

WHAT’S CHANGED – In: Sicario. Out: In the Heart of the Sea.

Best Visual Effects

  1. Mad Max: Fury Road (No Change)
  2. Star Wars: The Force Awakens (No Change)
  3. Jurassic World (+1)
  4. The Martian (-1)
  5. Ex Machina (No Change)

Other Possibilities:

6. In the Heart of the Sea (No Change)

7. The Walk (No Change)

8. Avengers: Age of Ultron (Previously Unranked)

9. Everest (-1)

DROPPED OFF: The Revenant

WHAT’S CHANGED: No Changes

Best Original Score

  1. The Hateful Eight (No Change)
  2. Bridge of Spies (No Change)
  3. Carol (No Change)
  4. The Danish Girl (+1)
  5. Star Wars: The Force Awakens (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Spotlight (No Change)

7. Steve Jobs (No Change)

8. Mad Max: Fury Road (+1)

DROPPED OFF: Inside Out, The Revenant

WHAT’S CHANGED: No Changes

Best Original Song

  1. “Til It Happens to You” from The Hunting Ground (No Change)
  2. “So Long” from Concussion (+1)
  3. “See You Again” from Furious 7 (-1)
  4. “Simple Song #3” from Youth (No Change)
  5. “Love Me Like You Do” from Fifty Shades of Grey (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Earned It” from Fifty Shades of Grey (-1)

7. “Writing’s on the Wall” from Spectre (-1)

WHAT’S CHANGED – In: “Love Me Like You Do”. Out: “Earned It”.

These current predictions reflect the following breakdown of films getting these numbers:

9 Nominations

Mad Max Fury Road

8 Nominations

Carol, The Revenant

6 Nominations

Bridge of Spies, The Martian

5 Nominations

The Big Short, Brooklyn, The Danish Girl

4 Nominations

The Hateful Eight, Spotlight, Star Wars: The Force Awakens

3 Nominations

Room. Sicario, Steve Jobs

2 Nominations

Ex Machina, Inside Out

1 Nomination

Anomalisa, Beasts of No Nation, Black Mass, Cinderella, Concussion, Creed, Far from the Madding Crowd, Fifty Shades of Grey, 45 Years, Furious 7, The Good Dinosaur, The Hunting Ground, Joy, Jurassic World, Kahlil Gabran’s The Prophet, Love and Mercy, Shaun the Sheep Movie, Trumbo, Youth

That’ll do it for now, folks! I’ll have my FINAL Oscar predictions up next week…

 

2015 Golden Globe Predictions

Four days before Oscar nominations are revealed, Hollywood will throw their annual party and awards ceremony known as the Golden Globes, put on by the Hollywood Foreign Press (whoever they are). The always entertaining Ricky Gervais is back to host and the show honors 2015’s best in movies and television. I won’t bother with the TV stuff (just because I haven’t followed it anywhere close to what I do with film). As you may know, the Globes divide the picture and lead actor races in two: Drama and Musical/Comedy. This has been a source of some controversy recently with titles like The Wolf of Wall Street and American Hustle being questionably placed into Comedy. The ante was upped this year when Ridley Scott’s The Martian made that category. It has laughs to be sure, but really?

I’ll go through each race and predict the winners (and potential runner-up) and will update the blog either Sunday evening or Monday with how I did:

Best Picture (Drama)

Nominees:

Carol

Mad Max: Fury Road

The Revenant

Room

Spotlight

Outlook: Early critical precursors have placed Spotlight in the position of soft front runner for the Oscars and here. In fact, one of its main competitors The Big Short is in the other category so that helps even more. Potential spoilers could be Carol or just maybe Mad Max, but Spotlight is the odds on favorite here.

Predicted Winner: Spotlight

Runner-Up: Carol

Best Picture (Musical/Comedy)

Nominees:

The Big Short

Joy

The Martian

Spy

Trainwreck

Outlook: Let’s dispense with the two outright comedies – Spy and Trainwreck – as they stand no real chance. Joy‘s mixed critical reaction probably leaves it out, too. So we’re down to The Big Short and The Martian. With the deserved controversy of having The Martian even here in the first place aside, Short seems to have the bigger momentum right now and it should edge out its main competitor.

Predicted Winner: The Big Short

Runner-Up: The Martian

Best Actor (Drama)

Nominees:

Bryan Cranston, Trumbo

Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant

Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs

Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl

Will Smith, Concussion

Outlook: While he’s famously never won an Oscar, Leo did take a Globe two years ago (in Comedy) for Wolf of Wall Street. Look for his dramatic work here to be recognized and it would frankly be fairly surprising if he didn’t win. I’d say Fassbender or maybe Cranston pose the only real upset threats.

Predicted Winner: DiCaprio

Runner-Up: Fassbender

Best Actress (Drama)

Nominees:

Cate Blanchett, Carol

Brie Larson, Room

Rooney Mara, Carol

Saoirise Ronan, Brooklyn

Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl

Outlook: My inkling here is that Blanchett and Mara will pretty much cancel each other out for their work in Carol. Vikander is a double nominee this year, but appears to be a long shot in this race especially. Ronan is certainly a possibility, but Larson is the likely recipient for her lauded work.

Predicted Winner: Larson

Runner-Up: Ronan

Best Actor (Musical/Comedy)

Nominees:

Christian Bale, The Big Short

Steve Carell, The Big Short

Matt Damon, The Martian

Al Pacino, Danny Collins

Mark Ruffal0, Infinitely Polar Bear

Outlook: First things first – Pacino and Ruffalo have zero shot. Like the previously discussed race, I could see Bale and Carell canceling one another out and that leaves Mr. Damon.

Predicted Winner: Damon

Runner-Up: Bale

Best Actress (Musical/Comedy)

Nominees:

Jennifer Lawrence, Joy

Melissa McCarthy, Spy

Amy Schumer, Trainwreck

Maggie Smith, The Lady in the Van

Lily Tomlin, Grandma

Outlook: Schumer had her breakout role with Trainwreck and stands a chance, but this is probably Lawrence’s race to lose.

Predicted Winner: Lawrence

Runner-Up: Schumer

Best Supporting Actor

Nominees:

Paul Dano, Love and Mercy

Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation

Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies

Michael Shannon, 99 Homes

Sylvester Stallone, Creed

Outlook: This race is a little trickier and could be ripe for an upset (Elba or Shannon wouldn’t shock me). However, this probably comes down to Rylance (who’s picked up numerous critic precursor notices) and Stallone (for the sentimental vote). I’m going with sentimentality trumping all else.

Predicted Winner: Stallone

Runner-Up: Rylance

Best Supporting Actress

Nominees:

Jane Fonda, Youth

Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight

Helen Mirren, Trumbo

Alicia Vikander, Ex Machina

Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs

Outlook: Another race that could feature an upset (any one of these ladies are possible), but I’ll give the slight momentum to Leigh’s work.

Predicted Winner: Leigh

Runner-Up: Winslet

Best Director

Nominees:

Todd Haynes, Carol

Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, The Revenant

Tom McCarthy, Spotlight

George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road

Ridley Scott, The Martian

Outlook: Don’t see Haynes or Inarritu prevailing, so that leaves this question: will the HFPA go with the likely Best Drama Picture winner’s director (McCarthy) or the outstanding visual work from Miller or Scott. Miller has picked up a number of precursor awards, so I give him the edge over Scott and I ultimately believe he’ll eek out the victory here.

Predicted Winner: Miller

Runner-Up: McCarthy

As for the other categories – here are my picks

Best Screenplay

Predicted Winner: Spotlight

Runner-Up: The Big SHort

Best Score

Predicted Winner: The Hateful Eight

Runner-Up: Carol

Best Song

Predicted Winner: “See You Again” from Furious 7

Runner-Up: “Love Me Like You Do” from Fifty Shades of Grey

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Winner: Inside Out

Runner-Up: Anomalisa

Best Foreign Language Film

Predicted Winner: Son of Saul

Runner-Up: Mustang

And there you have it, folks! My Golden Globe predictions…

Box Office Predictions: January 8-10

Unless Leonardo DiCaprio’s awards contender The Revenant has a much bigger than anticipated debut, it should be weekend #4 atop the charts for record breaker Star Wars: The Force Awakens on this second 2016 frame. As I see it – Han, Leia and company should garner about another $50M+ to add to its astonishing total.

The Revenant is certainly the heavy hitter newbie this weekend and it should have no trouble posting runner-up status. The weekend’s other fresh offerings are horror pic The Forest and faith based sports drama The Masked Saint. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on them all here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/12/30/the-revenant-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/12/30/the-forest-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/12/31/the-masked-saint-box-office-prediction/

The Forest should manage to place fifth unless some leftovers hold up better than my estimates while The Masked Saint may have to settle for an 11th place showing. Daddy’s Home and The Hateful Eight should populate the three and four spots.

And with that, my top five predictions for the weekend:

  1. Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Predicted Gross: $51.6 million (representing a drop of 43%)

2. The Revenant

Predicted Gross: $33.2 million

3. Daddy’s Home

Predicted Gross: $16.8 million (representing a drop of 42%)

4. The Hateful Eight

Predicted Gross: $10.5 million (representing a drop of 33%)

5. The Forest

Predicted Gross: $8.7 million

Box Office Results (January 1-3)

The Force continued to be incredibly strong as Star Wars three-peated with $90.2 million, a bit under my $98.7M projection. The acclaimed seventh episode of the iconic franchise has amassed $742M at press time and looks to become the highest domestic grosser in history on Wednesday – surpassing Avatar‘s $760M.

Daddy’s Home remained in second with $29.2 million, ahead of my $25.9M estimate for a terrific 10 day haul of $93M. The Will Ferrell/Mark Wahlberg comedy has proven itself to be quite the breakout.

Quentin Tarantino’s The Hateful Eight expanded wide and could not match my lofty expectations. Coming in behind his previous pics Inglourious Basterds and Django Unchained, the three hour pic grossed $15.7 million over the traditional three day weekend and $22.3 million since its wide Wednesday opening. While this is considerably under my $27.2M and $36.1M respective predictions, this is still a decent debut and it hopes to hold up well in subsequent frames.

The Tina Fey/Amy Poehler comedy Sisters continued its fine run in fourth with $12.7 million (outpacing my $9.2M estimate) for a three week total of $61M. It could manage to reach close to the century mark and maybe even top it.

Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Road Chip held up solidly in weekend #3 with $12 million for fifth, ahead of my $9.1M projection for a total of $67M.

The David O. Russell/Jennifer Lawrence collaboration Joy was sixth in its second weekend with $10.2 million, in line with my $10.7M estimate. Its just OK two week cume is at $38M.

In seventh was Oscar contender The Big Short, holding nicely at $9 million (above my $7.8M guess) for a tally of $33M. A potential Golden Globe win this coming weekend in the Musical/Comedy race could help continue its sterling performance.

Will Smith’s underwhelming Concussion was eighth with $7.8 million (I was in the ballpark with $8.6M) for ten days earnings of $25M.

Point Break held up stronger than my $5.4M estimate with $6.8 million for a still weak 10 day tally of only $22M.

Rounding out the top ten was The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 2 at $4.6 million (I said $3.6M) for a $274M overall gross.

And that’ll do it for now, folks! Until next time…

Todd’s Weekly Oscar Predictions: January 1st Edition

Happy New Year, loyal blog readers!!

We begin 2016 with my weekly Oscar predictions leading up to nominations being announced on January 14th. This will mean I’ll have two more posts prognosticating on what and who will be nominated (one on Friday the 8th and one likely the day before the announcements).

A couple of quick notes on various races:

  • There is considerable speculation as to whether Rooney Mara will be nominated in the category of Best Actress or Supporting Actress for her work in Carol. So far, I’ve speculated a nomination for her in the latter. Today, I am changing it to the former.
  • Same goes for Alicia Vikander in The Danish Girl, but I’m keeping her in Supporting Actress for now. There is also speculation that her nod could come for Ex Machina and not Danish Girl.
  • The historic box office performance of Star Wars: The Force Awakens is increasing its shot at a Best Picture nomination. I’ve still got it on the outside looking in, but don’t be shocked if that changes in the coming days.

And with that, here’s my weekly predictions that list all possibilities for each race and how they’ve fluctuated since Christmas Day:

Best Picture

  1. Spotlight (No Change)
  2. Room (No Change)
  3. The Big Short (+2)
  4. Mad Max: Fury Road (+2)
  5. Carol (-2)
  6. The Martian (+1)
  7. The Revenant (-3)
  8. Brooklyn (No Change)
  9. Bridge of Spies (No Change)

Other Possibilities:

10. Star Wars: The Force Awakens (+8)

11. Inside Out (-2)

12. The Hateful Eight (No Change)

13. Straight Outta Compton (-2)

14. Beasts of No Nation (-1)

15. Son of Saul (+2)

16. Steve Jobs (No Change)

17. Creed (-2)

18. Sicario (+1)

19. Trumbo (-5)

20. The Danish Girl (No Change)

21. Anomalisa (Previously Unranked)

WHAT’S CHANGED: No Changes

Best Director

  1. Tom McCarthy, Spotlight (No Change)
  2. George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road (No Change)
  3. Ridley Scott, The Martian (+1)
  4. Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, The Revenant (-1)
  5. Todd Haynes, Carol (No Change)

Other Possibilities:

6. Adam McKay, The Big Short (+1)

7. Lenny Abrahamson, Room (-1)

8. Steven Spielberg, Bridge of Spies (No Change)

9. Quentin Tarantino, The Hateful Eight (No Change)

10. Laszlo Nemes, Son of Saul (+3)

11. J.J. Abrams, Star Wars: The Force Awakens (+4)

12. John Crowley, Brooklyn (-2)

13. Cary Fukanaga, Beasts of No Nation (-2)

14. Ryan Coogler, Creed (-2)

DROPPED OUT: F. Gary Gray, Straight Outta Compton

WHAT’S CHANGED: No Changes

Best Actor

  1. Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant (No Change)
  2. Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs (No Change)
  3. Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl (No Change)
  4. Matt Damon, The Martian (+1)
  5. Bryan Cranston, Trumbo (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Johnny Depp, Black Mass (No Change)

7. Will Smith, Concussion (No Change)

8. Steve Carell, The Big Short (No Change)

9. Michael Caine, Youth (+1)

10. Ian McKellen, Mr. Holmes (-1)

11. Michael B. Jordan, Creed (No Change)

12. Tom Hanks, Bridge of Spies (No Change)

13. Geza Rohrig, Son of Saul (No Change)

WHAT’S CHANGED: No Changes

Best Actress

  1. Brie Larson, Room (No Change)
  2. Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn (No Change)
  3. Cate Blanchett, Carol (No Change)
  4. Rooney Mara, Carol (Previously Unranked In This Category)
  5. Jennifer Lawrence, Joy (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years (-1)

7. Charlize Theron, Mad Max: Fury Road (-1)

8. Blythe Danner, I’ll See You In My Dreams (-1)

9. Helen Mirren, Woman in Gold (No Change)

DROPPED OUT: Sarah Silverman, I Smile Back

WHAT’S CHANGED – In: Mara. Out: Rampling.

Best Supporting Actor

  1. Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies (No Change)
  2. Sylvester Stallone, Creed (No Change)
  3. Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation (No Change)
  4. Christian Bale, The Big Short (No Change)
  5. Michael Shannon, 99 Homes (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Michael Keaton, Spotlight (-1)

7. Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight (+1)

8. Tom Hardy, The Revenant (+1)

9. Paul Dano, Love and Mercy (-2)

10. Jacob Tremblay, Room (+1)

11. Benicio del Toro, Sicario (-1)

WHAT’S CHANGED – In: Shannon. Out: Keaton.

Best Supporting Actress

  1. Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight (+3)
  2. Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs (+1)
  3. Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl (-2)
  4. Helen Mirren, Trumbo (+1)
  5. Joan Allen, Room (+4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Rachel McAdams, Spotlight (+1)

7. Jane Fonda, Youth (-1)

8. Alicia Vikander, Ex Machina (Previously Unranked)

9. Kristen Stewart, Clouds of Sils Maria (-1)

10. Elizabeth Banks, Love and Mercy (No Change)

WHAT’S CHANGED – In: Allen. Out: Rooney Mara (moved to Best Actress)

Best Original Screenplay

  1. Spotlight (No Change)
  2. Inside Out (No Change)
  3. The Hateful Eight (No Change)
  4. Bridge of Spies (No Change)
  5. Ex Machina (No Change)

Other Possibilities:

6. Straight Outta Compton (No Change)

7. Love and Mercy (+2)

8. 99 Homes (-1)

9. Son of Saul (-1)

10. Sicario (No Change)

11. Joy (Previously Unranked)

DROPPED OUT: Youth

WHAT’S CHANGED: No Changes

Best Adapted Screenplay

  1. The Big Short (+1)
  2. Room (+1)
  3. Carol (-2)
  4. Steve Jobs (No Change)
  5. Brooklyn (No Change)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Martian (No Change)

7. The Revenant (+2)

8. Beasts of No Nation (-1)

9. Anomalisa (+1)

10. Trumbo (-2)

11. Creed (+2)

12. The Danish Girl (No Change)

13. Mad Max: Fury Road (-2)

WHAT’S CHANGED: No Changes

Best Animated Feature

  1. Inside Out (No Change)
  2. Anomalisa (No Change)
  3. Shaun the Sheep Movie (+1)
  4. The Peanuts Movie (+1)
  5. Kahlil Gabran’s The Prophet (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Good Dinosaur (No Change)

7. When Marnie Was There (No Change)

8. Minions (Previously Unranked)

WHAT’S CHANGED: No Changes

Best Cinematography

  1. The Revenant (No Change)
  2. The Hateful Eight (+1)
  3. Mad Max: Fury Road (-1)
  4. Sicario (No Change)
  5. Bridge of Spies (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Martian (No Change)

7. Son of Saul (-2)

8. Carol (-1)

9. Star Wars: The Force Awakens (Previously Unranked)

DROPPED OUT: In the Heart of the Sea

WHAT’S CHANGED – In: Bridge of Spies. Out: Son of Saul.

Best Editing

  1. Mad Max: Fury Road (+1)
  2. The Revenant (+2)
  3. Spotlight (-2)
  4. The Martian (+2)
  5. Steve Jobs (No Change)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sicario (Previously Unranked)

7. The Big Short (-4)

8. Bridge of Spies (-1)

9. The Hateful Eight (-1)

10. Star Wars: The Force Awakens (No Change)

11. Carol (Previously Unranked)

12. Room (-3)

WHAT’S CHANGED – In: The Martian. Out: The Big Short.

Best Production Design

  1. Carol (No Change)
  2. The Danish Girl (No Change)
  3. Mad Max: Fury Road (No Change)
  4. Bridge of Spies (+1)
  5. The Hateful Eight (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Cinderella (No Change)

7. Brooklyn (-3)

8. The Revenant (+1)

9. Star Wars: The Force Awakens (-1)

10. Far from the Madding Crowd (Previously Unranked)

11. MacBeth (-1)

DROPPED OUT: The Martian

WHAT’S CHANGED – In: The Hateful Eight. Out: Brooklyn.

Best Costume Design

  1. Carol (+1)
  2. The Danish Girl (-1)
  3. Cinderella (No Change)
  4. Brooklyn (No Change)
  5. Far from the Madding Crowd (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Hateful Eight (+1)

7. Mad Max: Fury Road (-2)

8. MacBeth (+1)

9. The Revenant (+1)

10. Suffragette (-4)

11. Star Wars: The Force Awakens (Previously Unranked)

WHAT’S CHANGED – In: Far from the Madding Crowd. Out: Mad Max: Fury Road.

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

  1. Mad Max: Fury Road (No Change)
  2. The Revenant (+4)
  3. Black Mass (+1)

Other Possibilities:

4. Concussion (Previously Unranked)

5. Mr. Holmes (+2)

6. The 100 Year Old Man Who Climbed Out of the Window and Disappeared (Previously Unranked)

7. Legend (Previously Unranked)

DROPPED OUT: The Danish Girl, Carol, Star Wars: The Force Awakens (these top seven finalists indicated above have now been announced)

WHAT’S CHANGED – In: The Revenant, Black Mass. OUT: The Danish Girl, Carol

Best Sound Mixing

  1. Mad Max: Fury Road (No Change)
  2. Star Wars: The Force Awakens (No Change)
  3. The Revenant (No Change)
  4. The Martian (No Change)
  5. Sicario (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Hateful Eight (-1)

7. In the Heart of the Sea (No Change)

8. Jurassic World (No Change)

WHAT’S CHANGED – In: Sicario. Out: The Hateful Eight.

Best Sound Editing

  1. Mad Max: Fury Road (No Change)
  2. The Revenant (No Change)
  3. Star Wars: The Force Awakens (+1)
  4. The Martian (-1)
  5. In the Heart of the Sea (No Change)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sicario (No Change)

7. The Hateful Eight (No Change)

8. Jurassic World (No Change)

WHAT’S CHANGED: No Changes.

Best Visual Effects

  1. Mad Max: Fury Road (+1)
  2. Star Wars: The Force Awakens (-1)
  3. The Martian (No Change)
  4. Jurassic World (No Change)
  5. Ex Machina (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. In the Heart of the Sea (-1)

7. The Walk (-1)

8. Everest (Previously Unranked)

9. The Revenant (-2)

WHAT’S CHANGED – In: Ex Machina. Out: In the Heart of the Sea.

Best Original Score

  1. The Hateful Eight (No Change)
  2. Bridge of Spies (No Change)
  3. Carol (+1)
  4. Star Wars: The Force Awakens (-1)
  5. The Danish Girl (No Change)

Other Possibilities:

6. Spotlight (No Change)

7. Steve Jobs (+1)

8. Inside Out (+1)

9. Mad Max: Fury Road (-2)

10. The Revenant (Previously Unranked)

WHAT’S CHANGED: No Changes

Best Original Song

  1. “Til It Happens to You” from The Hunting Ground (No Change)
  2. “See You Again” from Furious 7 (+1)
  3. “So Long” from Concussion (-1)
  4. “Simple Song #3” from Youth (+1)
  5. “Earned It” from Fifty Shades of Grey (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Writing’s on the Wall” from Spectre (+1)

7. “Love Me Like You Do” from Fifty Shades of Grey (-1)

DROPPED OUT: “I’ll See You In My Dreams” from I’ll See You in My Dreams

WHAT’S CHANGED: No Changes

And there you have it – my latest Oscar predictions and first post of 2016!

The Revenant Box Office Prediction

One year after winning the Directing Oscar for Best Picture winner Birdman, Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu unleases The Revenant in theaters next Friday and the box office results could be quite impressive. Leonardo DiCaprio stars in the 19th century brutal tale of survival (complete with well publicized bear attacks) and the buzz has the actor in line to finally receive his elusive Academy Award. Costars include Tom Hardy, Domhnall Gleeson, and Will Poulter.

The Revenant looks like a good possibility for its own Picture nomination and reviews have mostly been solid, as it stands at 81% on Rotten Tomatoes. The film has garnered much notice for its reported hellish production shoot. It will need to earn serious money domestically and overseas with a budget of around $135 million.

The marketing campaign for The Revenant has been strong and Leo is one of the few performers who legitimately brings out audiences due to his sterling track record. I suspect this will post an opening gross anywhere from the high 20s to high 30s and if it over performed, it wouldn’t be a huge shock to me.

The Revenant opening weekend prediction: $33.2 million

For my The Forest prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/12/30/the-forest-box-office-prediction/

For my The Masked Saint prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/12/31/the-masked-saint-box-office-prediction/

Todd’s Weekly Oscar Predictions: December 18th Edition

We arrive at my weekly Oscar predictions and a new wrinkle has been added. I’m predicting every category with the exception of Foreign and Documentary (those will eventually be added).

As with last week, I’ll ranking according to my feelings on likelihood of the films and performers being nominated and let you know what’s changed since last week. The pluses and minuses and no changes indicated their ranking from last week to this week.

Let’s get to it!

Best Picture

  1. Spotlight (No Change)
  2. The Revenant (No Change)
  3. Room (No Change)
  4. Brooklyn (+3)
  5. Carol (-1)
  6. The Martian (No Change)
  7. Mad Max: Fury Road (-2)
  8. Bridge of Spies (No Change)
  9. The Big Short (+2)

Other Possibilities:

10. Inside Out (No Change)

11. The Hateful Eight (-2)

12. Star Wars: The Force Awakens (+11)

13. Trumbo (+6)

14. Son of Saul (+3)

15. The Danish Girl (+1)

16. Sicario (+5)

17. Beasts of No Nation (-3)

18. Steve Jobs (-5)

19. Straight Outta Compton (-4)

20. Creed (-8)

21. Joy (-2)

22. Love and Mercy (-1)

23. Anomalisa (-6)

What’s Changed Since Last Week – IN: The Big Short. OUT: The Hateful Eight.

Best Director

  1. Tom McCarthy, Spotlight (No Change)
  2. Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, The Revenant (No Change)
  3. George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road (No Change)
  4. Ridley Scott, The Martian (No Change)
  5. Todd Haynes, Carol (No Change)

Other Possibilities:

6. Steven Spielberg, Bridge of Spies (+1)

7. Lenny Abrahamson, Room (-1)

8. J.J. Abrams, Star Wars: The Force Awakens (+9)

9. John Crowley, Brooklyn (No Change)

10. Quentin Tarantino, The Hateful Eight (-2)

11. Adam McKay, The Big Short (+1)

12. Laszlo Nemes, Son of Saul (+1)

13. Jay Roach, Trumbo (Previously Not Ranked)

14. Tom Hooper, The Danish Girl (+2)

15. Danny Boyle, Steve Jobs (-1)

16. Cary Fukunaga, Beasts of No Nation (-5)

17. Ryan Coogler, Creed (-7)

DROPPED OUT: David O. Russell, Joy

What’s Changed Since Last Week: NO CHANGES

Best Actor

  1. Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant (No Change)
  2. Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs (+1)
  3. Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl (-1)
  4. Bryan Cranston, Trumbo (+1)
  5. Johnny Depp, Black Mass (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Matt Damon, The Martian (No Change)

7. Will Smith, Concussion (No Change)

8. Michael Caine, Youth (+3)

9. Ian McKellen, Mr. Holmes (No Change)

10. Tom Hanks, Bridge of Spies (No Change)

11. Geza Rohrig, Son of Saul (+2)

12. Steve Carell, The Big Short (No Change)

13. Michael B. Jordan, Creed (-5)

What’s Changed Since Last Week: No Changes

Best Actress

  1. Brie Larson, Room (No Change)
  2. Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn (No Change)
  3. Cate Blanchett, Carol (No Change)
  4. Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years (No Change)
  5. Jennifer Lawrence, Joy (No Change)

Other Possibilities:

6. Charlize Theron, Mad Max: Fury Road (+1)

7. Helen Mirren, Woman in Gold (+2)

8. Blythe Danner, I’ll See You in My Dreams (-2)

9. Sarah Silverman, I Smile Back (-1)

10. Maggie Smith, The Lady in the Van (No Change)

11. Carey Mulligan, Suffragette (+1)

12. Lily Tomlin, Grandma (-1)

What’s Changed Since Last Week: No Changes

Best Supporting Actor

  1. Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies (No Change)
  2. Michael Keaton, Spotlight (+1)
  3. Paul Dano, Love and Mercy (+1)
  4. Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation (+1)
  5. Sylvester Stallone, Creed (-3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Michael Shannon, 99 Homes (+4)

7. Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight (-1)

8. Tom Hardy, The Revenant (No Change)

9. Christian Bale, The Big Short (-2)

10. Jacob Tremblay, Room (+1)

11. Benicio del Toro, Sicario (-2)

What’s Changed Since Last Week: No Changes

Best Supporting Actress

  1. Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl (No Change)
  2. Rooney Mara, Carol (No Change)
  3. Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight (No Change)
  4. Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs (No Change)
  5. Helen Mirren, Trumbo (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Rachel McAdams, Spotlight (+4)

7. Jane Fonda, Youth (-2)

8. Kristen Stewart, Clouds of Sils Maria (-2)

9. Elizabeth Banks, Love and Mercy (No Change)

10. Joan Allen, Room (-2)

DROPPED OUT: Alicia Vikander, Ex Machina

What’s Changed Since Last Week – IN: Helen Mirren, OUT: Jane Fonda.

Best Original Screenplay 

  1. Spotlight (No Change)
  2. Inside Out (+1)
  3. The Hateful Eight (-1)
  4. Bridge of Spies (No Change)
  5. Love and Mercy (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Son of Saul (-1)

7. Mad Max: Fury Road (Previously Not Ranked)

8. 99 Homes (No Change)

9. Sicario (+1)

10. Ex Machina (+1)

11. Straight Outta Compton (-4)

12. Youth (Previously Not Ranked)

13. Joy (-4)

14. Trainwreck (-2)

What’s Changed Since Last Week – IN: Love and Mercy. OUT: Son of Saul.

Best Adapted Screenplay

  1. Room (+2)
  2. Brooklyn (+2)
  3. Carol (-2)
  4. The Big Short (+1)
  5. Steve Jobs (-3)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Martian (+1)

7. Trumbo (+3)

8. The Revenant (-2)

9. Beasts of No Nation (No Change)

10. Anomalisa (-2)

11. The Danish Girl (+1)

DROPPED OUT: Creed

What’s Changed Since Last Week: No Changes

Best Animated Feature (First Time Predictions)

  1. Inside Out
  2. Anomalisa
  3. Kahlil Gobran’s The Prophet
  4. Shaun the Sheep Movie
  5. The Good Dinosaur

Other Possibilities:

6. The Peanuts Movie

7. When Marnie Was There

8. Home

Best Cinematography (First Time Predictions)

  1. The Hateful Eight
  2. The Revenant
  3. Mad Max: Fury Road
  4. The Martian
  5. Sicario

Other Possibilities:

6. Carol

7. Bridge of Spies

8. The Danish Girl

Best Production Design (First Time Predictions)

  1. Carol
  2. The Danish Girl
  3. Mad Max: Fury Road
  4. Cinderella
  5. Bridge of Spies

Other Possibilities:

6. The Revenant

7. Brooklyn

8. The Martian

9. The Hateful Eight

10. Star Wars: The Force Awakens

11. MacBeth

Best Editing (First Time Predictions)

  1. Spotlight
  2. Mad Max: Fury Road
  3. The Revenant
  4. The Big Short
  5. Steve Jobs

Other Possibilities:

6. The Hateful Eight

7. The Martian

8. Bridge of Spies

9. Room

Best Costume Design (First Time Predictions)

  1. Carol
  2. Cinderella
  3. Brooklyn
  4. The Danish Girl
  5. Far from the Madding Crowd

Other Possibilities:

6. Mad Max: Fury Road

7. Suffragette

8. Trumbo

9. The Hateful Eight

10. MacBeth

Best Makeup and Hairstyling (First Time Predictions)

  1. The Danish Girl
  2. Carol
  3. Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Other Possibilities:

4. Mad Max: Fury Road

5. Black Mass

6. Pan

7. The Hateful Eight

8. The Revenant

Best Visual Effects (First Time Predictions)

  1. Mad Max: Fury Road
  2. The Martian
  3. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
  4. Jurassic World
  5. The Walk

Other Possibilities:

6. The Revenant

7. In the Heart of the Sea

8. Ex Machina

Best Sound Mixing (First Time Predictions)

  1. Mad Max: Fury Road
  2. The Martian
  3. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
  4. The Revenant
  5. Sicario

Other Possibilities:

6. Jurassic World

7. The Hateful Eight

8. In the Heart of the Sea

Best Sound Editing (First Time Predictions)

  1. Mad Max: Fury Road
  2. The Revenant
  3. The Martian
  4. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
  5. In the Heart of the Sea

Other Possibilities:

6. Sicario

7. The Hateful Eight

8. Jurassic World

Best Original Score (First Time Predictions)

  1. The Hateful Eight
  2. Carol
  3. Spotlight
  4. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
  5. The Danish Girl

Other Possibilities:

6. The Revenant

7. Bridge of Spies

8. Sicario

9. Brooklyn

10. Mad Max: Fury Road

11. Southpaw

Best Original Song (First Time Predictions)

  1. “Til It Happens To You” from The Hunting Ground
  2. “See You Again” from Furious 7
  3. “Love Me Like You Do” from Fifty Shades of Grey
  4. “Writing’s on the Wall” from Spectre
  5. “Earned It” from Fifty Shades of Grey

Other Possibilities:

6. “Simple Song #3” from Youth

7. “One Kind of Love” from Love and Mercy

8. “So Long” from Concussion

Whew! Those predictions reflect a current belief of the following films garnering nominations with number included:

9 Nominations

Carol

8 Nominations

Mad Max: Fury Road

7 Nominations

The Revenant

6 Nominations

The Danish Girl, The Martian, Spotlight

5 Nominations

Star Wars: The Force Awakens

4 Nominations

Bridge of Spies, Brooklyn, The Hateful Eight, Steve Jobs

3 Nominations

The Big Short, Room

2 Nominations

Cinderella, Fifty Shades of Grey, Inside Out, Love and Mercy, Sicario, Trumbo

1 Nomination

Anomalisa, Beasts of No Nation, Black Mass, Creed, Far from the Madding Crowd, 45 Years, Furious 7, The Good Dinosaur, The Hunting Ground, In the Heat of the Sea, Joy, Jurassic World, Kahlil Gabron’s The Prophet, Shaun the Sheep Movie, Spectre, The Walk

 

2015: The Year of Tom Hardy

For close to a decade, Tom Hardy has been turning up in mostly high profile supporting roles and became a household name thanks to one Christopher Nolan. His breakout came in Nicolas Winding Refn’s acclaimed indie pic Bronson. The aforementioned Nolan took notice and soon Hardy found himself cast alongside Leonardo DiCaprio in Inception and as villain Bane in The Dark Knight Rises. Other notable appearances along the way include Warrior, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, Lawless, Locke, and The Drop.

It’s been an impressive filmography but 2015 put the 38 year old Brit into a whole new stratosphere. This summer he took over the role made famous by Mel Gibson in Mad Max: Fury Road and the results were a worldwide box office smash that is gaining momentum for a Best Picture nomination.

This fall, he starred in Legend which cast him in the dual role of real life gangsters The Kray Brothers. Reviews were mixed, but Hardy earned raves for his work.

The calendar year will end with him paired up with DiCaprio once again in the eagerly anticipated The Revenant, which is also subject to plenty of Oscar buzz. In fact, it looks more probable than not that two Academy nominees for Best Picture will feature Mr. Hardy. He also could find himself in line for his own first Oscar recognition in Supporting Actor for The Revenant.

With three buzzworthy features to his credit in 2015, it was a furiously good year for this actor.

Todd’s Weekly Oscar Predictions: December 11 Edition

And now we’ve arrived at my weekly Oscar predictions for the eight biggest categories and yes, things have changed in one week. Most notably, many critics precursor awards have been announced and just in the last 48 hours, nominations for the SAG and Golden Globe awards have been revealed. The past week’s activity has given a huge boost to Mad Max: Fury Road‘s inclusion into the Best Picture race and I’m including it for the first time. Other pics that have received some momentum: Carol, Trumbo (in acting races), and possibly The Big Short.

For the first time, I’m ceasing to list my predicted nominees and other possibilities alphabetically. We are now switching to where I’m listing according to my thoughts on their probability of being nominated.

And here we go, my friends:

Best Picture

  1. Spotlight
  2. The Revenant
  3. Room
  4. Carol
  5. Mad Max: Fury Road
  6. The Martian
  7. Brooklyn
  8. Bridge of Spies
  9. The Hateful Eight

Other Possibilities:

10. Inside Out

11. The Big Short

12. Creed

13. Steve Jobs

14. Beasts of No Nation

15. Straight Outta Compton

16. The Danish Girl

17. Son of Saul

18. Anomalisa

19. Trumbo

20. Joy

21. Sicario

22. Love and Mercy

23. Star Wars: The Force Awakens

What’s Changed Since Last Week – In: Mad Max: Fury Road, Out: Inside Out

Best Director

  1. Tom McCarthy, Spotlight
  2. Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, The Revenant
  3. George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road
  4. Ridley Scott, The Martian
  5. Todd Haynes, Carol

Other Possibilities:

6. Lenny Abrahamson, Room

7. Steven Spielberg, Bridge of Spies

8. Quentin Tarantino, The Hateful Eight

9. John Crowley, Brooklyn

10. Ryan Coogler, Creed

11. Cary Fukanaga, Beasts of No Nation

12. Adam McKay, The Big Short

13. Laszlo Nemes, Son of Saul

14. Danny Boyle, Steve Jobs

15. David O. Russell, Joy

16. Tom Hooper, The Danish Girl

17. J.J. Abrams, Star Wars: The Force Awakens

What’s Changed Since Last Week – In: Todd Haynes. Out: Lenny Abrahamson

Best Actor

  1. Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
  2. Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl
  3. Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
  4. Johnny Depp, Black Mass
  5. Bryan Cranston, Trumbo

Other Possibilities:

6. Matt Damon, The Martian

7. Will Smith, Concussion

8. Michael B. Jordan, Creed

9. Ian McKellen, Mr. Holmes

10. Tom Hanks, Bridge of Spies

11. Michael Caine, Youth

12. Steve Carell, The Big Short

13. Geza Rohrig, Son of Saul

What’s Changed Since Last Week – In: Bryan Cranston. Out: Matt Damon

Best Actress

  1. Brie Larson, Room
  2. Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn
  3. Cate Blanchett, Carol
  4. Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years
  5. Jennifer Lawrence, Joy

Other Possibilities:

6. Blythe Danner, I’ll See You in My Dreams

7. Charlize Theron, Mad Max: Fury Road

8. Sarah Silverman, I Smile Back

9. Helen Mirren, Woman in Gold

10. Maggie Smith, The Lady in the Van

11. Lily Tomlin, Grandma

12. Carey Mulligan, Suffragette

What’s Changed Since Last Week – NO CHANGES

Best Supporting Actor

  1. Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
  2. Sylvester Stallone, Creed
  3. Michael Keaton, Spotlight
  4. Paul Dano, Love and Mercy
  5. Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation

Other Possibilities:

6. Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight

7. Christian Bale, The Big Short

8. Tom Hardy, The Revenant

9. Benicio del Toro, Sicario

10. Michael Shannon, 99 Homes

11. Jacob Tremblay, Room

What’s Changed Since Last Week – In: Paul Dano and Idris Elba. Out: Tom Hardy and Mark Ruffalo

Best Supporting Actress

  1. Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
  2. Rooney Mara, Carol
  3. Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
  4. Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs
  5. Jane Fonda, Youth

Other Possibilities:

6. Kristen Stewart, Clouds of Sils Maria

7. Helen Mirren, Trumbo

8. Joan Allen, Room

9. Elizabeth Banks, Love and Mercy

10. Rachel McAdams, Spotlight

11. Alicia Vikander, Ex Machina

What’s Changed Since Last Week: NO CHANGES

Best Original Screenplay

  1. Spotlight
  2. The Hateful Eight
  3. Inside Out
  4. Bridge of Spies
  5. Son of Saul

Other Possibilities:

6. Love and Mercy

7. Straight Outta Compton

8. 99 Homes

9. Joy

10. Sicario

11. Ex Machina

12. Trainwreck

What’s Changed Since Last Week – IN: Son of Saul. Out: Love and Mercy

Best Adapted Screenplay

  1. Carol
  2. Steve Jobs
  3. Room
  4. Brooklyn
  5. The Big Short

Other Possibilities:

6. The Revenant

7. The Martian

8. Anomalisa

9. Beasts of No Nation

10. Trumbo

11. Creed

12. The Danish Girl

What’s Changed Since Last Week – In: The Big Short. Out: Anomalisa. 

And that’ll do it for this week’s predictions! Stay tuned for next Friday’s picks…

Los Angeles and Boston Shine a Spotlight

As critics organizations have started handing out their year end best of honors starting last week, two stories have stood in the forefront: the love fest enveloping Mad Max: Fury Road and the lack of attention to what many consider to be Oscar’s soft front runner. That would be Tom McCarthy’s Spotlight, the true life story of Boston Globe reporters exposing the Catholic Church priest sex abuse scandal. In fact, when Boston’s online critics organization bestowed their awards over the weekend, many assumed they would select Spotlight due to the geographic factor alone. They went with Max.

Today, however, two organizations from both coasts feted Spotlight with some love. It also finally got some hometown attention as the Boston Society of Film Critics named it their Best Picture. Just a few hours later, the Los Angeles Film Critics Association followed suit, making it a very good day for Spotlight.

Director McCarthy, on the other hand, was not picked by either coast in the Director race. Boston went with Todd Haynes for Carol and Los Angeles picked George Miller for Mad Max with Haynes as their runner up.

Truth be told, Spotlight winning the L.A. award may not be the greatest harbinger. In the 21st century, only one feature that won its top category went onto win the Oscar: 2009’s The Hurt Locker. The Los Angeles group is also known for making some out of left field choices in the acting races and they did with their supporting choices. Michael Shannon took Supporting Actor for the little seen 99 Homes and he’s not considered much of a threat in the Academy hunt. Runner up: Mark Rylance, whose chances are considerably better for Bridge of Spies. For Supporting Actress, they went with Alicia Vikander and she is widely expected to be nominated come Oscar time. Yet L.A. honored her for Ex Machina and not the film everyone expects her nomination for, The Danish Girl. Runner up: Kristen Stewart for Clouds of Sils Maria and Ms. Stewart won in Boston today. Her previously thought to be improbable Oscar nod keeps growing more probable everyday.

For Best Actress, it was a nice day for Charlotte Rampling, who won on both coasts. Her performance in little seen drama 45 Years has also been gaining attention and that could well translate into an Academy notice. L.A.’s runner up was Brooklyn’s Saoirse Ronan and her Oscar chances are excellent.

Los Angeles may have provided a lifeline to Michael Fassbender who took Actor for Steve Jobs. That film’s Oscar chances have taken a hit due to its dismal box office performance and some have begun speculating whether that factor could affect even Fassbender getting noticed. These critics awards help. The runner up was Geza Rohrig for foreign feature Son of Saul. In Boston, there was a tie between Leonardo DiCaprio in The Revenant and Paul Dano in Love and Mercy. DiCaprio is seen by many as the current Academy front runner while Dano is being campaigned for in Supporting Actor at the Oscars (where his inclusion is definitely a question mark).

As always, I’ll keep updating you on these precursors as they continue. Today’s bottom line: a true spotlight on Spotlight.

Boston Strong for Mad Max

Another day, another critics organization bestowing their best of in movies for 2015. And like the National Board of Review before it, the Boston Online Film Critics have honored Mad Max: Fury Road as their favorite of the year. Its director, George Miller, was victorious as well. This marks yet another win for the fourth entry in the action franchise and increases momentum for the Academy honoring it for a nod in January. I have yet to include Fury Road among my predicted nominees, but that could change soon.

Perhaps the most surprising thing about Max’s win in Boston was that they didn’t pick Spotlight, the Catholic Church priest scandal expose that centers on Boston Globe reporters. Spotlight was included among their other nine selections of the year’s best along with Creed, Brooklyn, Carol, Clouds of Sils Maria, Bridge of Spies, The Martian, Anomalisa, and Tangerine. Notable pics left off: The Revenant, The Hateful Eight, and Joy.

Boston’s selections also marked a great day for Creed. Michael B. Jordan took Best Actor and Sylvester Stallone got Supporting Actor. While Jordan’s chances at an Oscar nod are up in the air (though he’s got some momentum), Stallone is looking more and more like a lock for inclusion.

The actress categories mirrored what the New York critics did earlier this week. Saoirse Ronan won for lead in Brooklyn and she seems a safe bet for Academy attention. Kristen Stewart picked up her second award for the little seen Clouds of Sils Maria and while I’ve yet to list her as an Oscar nominee, she seems to be coming on strong over the past week.

As always, I’ll keep updating the blog as these awards precursors keep coming. Stay tuned!