Oscar Watch: The Midnight Sky

Netflix’s slew of December releases that are potential Oscar contenders continues with George Clooney’s The Midnight Sky. The sci-fi drama stars its director as an Arctic scientist attempting to prevent a group of astronauts from their return to Earth due to environmental hazards. The roughly $100 million budgeted pic hits theaters in a limited fashion this Friday though most viewers will see it when it materializes on the streaming service on December 23rd. Costars include Felicity Jones, David Oyelowo, Tiffany Boone, Kyle Chandler, Demian Bichir, and Caoilinn Springall.

The review embargo lifted today and it is most certainly a mixed bag. The Rotten Tomatoes rating is at only 54%. Numerous critics have brought up recent and similar genre fare in comparison, including Gravity (which also featured Clooney), Interstellar, The Martian, and Ad Astra. Several of them say that Sky doesn’t measure up.

It has been 15 years since Clooney’s work behind the camera has significantly attracted Oscar attention with Good Night, and Good Luck. His last two directorial efforts, The Monuments Men and Suburbicon, were both critical and commercial disappointments. With a number of write-ups skewing so-so or even negative, it’s hard to envision Sky aiming for a Picture nod or for any of the actors involved to contend.

On the other hand, reviews do suggest this could be a factor in some technical races. Most notable of them is Visual Effects, Production Design, and Sound. There is also plenty of praise for the Original Score by Alexandre Desplat, a two-time winner for his work on The Grand Budapest Hotel and The Shape of Water.

Bottom line: it will be a struggle for The Midnight Sky to reach the attention of voters in the major races, but it could still end up with close to a handful of nominations. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…

Oscar Watch: Suburbicon

George Clooney’s directorial career has one Oscar bright spot in the form of 2005’s Good Night, and Good Luck which received six nominations, including Picture and Director. His other work behind the camera (2002’s Confessions of a Dangerous Mind, 2008’s Leatherheads, 2011’s The Ides of March, 2014’s The Monuments Men) haven’t fared as well on the awards circuit. With its Venice Film Festival, Clooney’s latest Suburbicon is looking like it will belong in the latter category.

The 1950s set crime comedy was penned by acclaimed directors Joel and Ethan Coen and early critical reaction indicates it has the feel of one of their efforts. However, reviews thus far are mixed with a current 60% Rotten Tomatoes score. Matt Damon, Julianne Moore, and Oscar Isaac are among the cast. Mr. Damon could have more of a good night and good luck come Oscar time with Downsizing, but I don’t look for Suburbicon to receive much attention come nominations time (perhaps some Golden Globe in the Comedy categories could surface).

My Oscar Watch posts will continue…

Box Office Predictions: February 28-March 2

This final weekend of February/first weekend of March could provide a real showdown at the box office between Liam Neeson’s action pic Non-Stop and the Biblical pic Son of God. Both could be poised for healthy debut weekends and you can find my detailed predictions posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/02/23/non-stop-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/02/23/son-of-god-box-office-prediction/

While my estimates put the newbies at spots 1 and 2 – if both underwhelm, it could open the door for a fourth week at the top spot for The Lego Movie. The rest of the top five is likely to be filled with holdover action flicks suffering pretty large drops.

And with that, my predictions for this weekend’s top five:

1. Non-Stop

Predicted Gross: $28.2 million

2. Son of God

Predicted Gross: $26.7 milion

3. The LEGO Movie

Predicted Gross: $20.5 million (representing a drop of 34%)

4. 3 Days to Kill

Predicted Gross: $5.1 million (representing a drop of 58%)

5. Robocop

Predicted Gross: $4.6 million (representing a drop of 53%)

Box Office Results (February 21-23)

As for how I did this past weekend, The LEGO Movie did hold #1 for a third frame with $31.3 million, just below my $33.7M estimate. I vastly overestimated how well the rom com About Last Night would hold up in weekend #2. The Kevin Hart flick dropped a steep 70% to $7.5 million, well below my $13.6M prediction. Furthermore, I didn’t give enough credit to Kevin Costner’s 3 Days to Kill. It debuted at second with an OK $12.2 million – well above my modest $7.7M projection. Newcomer Pompeii fared badly with a third place debut at only $10.3 million, below my $13.3M projection. In fourth was Robocop with $9.8 million, in line with $10.4M projection and rounding out the top five was The Monuments Men with $7.9M, under my $10.3M estimate.

As always, I’ll have updates on the blog’s Facebook page this weekend with final results Monday!

Box Office Predictions: February 21-23

The gladiator action pic Pompeii and Kevin Costner thriller 3 Days to Kill both make their debuts on Friday. Neither is likely to come close to challenging a third weekend for the The LEGO Movie at the top spot. You can find my individual prediction posts on the newbies here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/02/16/pompeii-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/02/16/3-days-to-kill-box-office-prediction/

As mentioned, the animated smash hit Lego Movie should easily coast to weekend #3 at the top of the charts. President’s Day weekend leftovers About Last Night and Robocop should both lose around half their audience while Monuments Men could stay in the top five with a fall in its third weekend that is less than that of its competitors. With my prediction of 3 Days to Kill outside the top five, I’ll project 1-6 this week:

1. The LEGO Movie

Predicted Gross: $33.7 million (representing a drop of 32%)

2. About Last Night

Predicted Gross: $13.6 million (representing a drop of 47%)

3. Pompeii

Predicted Gross: $13.3 million

4. Robocop

Predicted Gross: $10.4 million (representing a drop of 52%)

5. The Monuments Men

Predicted Gross: $10.3 million (representing a drop of 34%)

6. 3 Days to Kill

Predicted Gross: $7.7 million

Box Office Results (February 14-17)

The LEGO Movie held up fantastically in its sophomore frame over the holiday weekend with $62.4 million, besting my estimate of $54.2M. I correctly called the Kevin Hart rom com About Last Night to debut second, but its $27.8 million opening fell below my generous $36.8M prediction. Still, it continues an impressive run of box office dominance in 2014 by Mr. Hart. Robocop had a so-so debut at third. Its $25 million Friday-to-Monday take was right on par with my $24.9M estimate, but its $30 million six-day haul (it opened Wednesday) fell below my projection of $36.8M. The Monuments Men was fourth with $17.9 million – holding up better than my $15.1M projection. Newcomer Endless Love was in the five spot with $14.4 million, a bit below my $16.1M estimate. Finally, Winter’s Tale with Colin Farrell was the big loser of the weekend – opening in 8th place with a weak $8 million, far below my $18.4M prediction.

That’s all for now, folks! I’ll have updates posted on the blog’s Facebook page this weekend with final results Monday.

Box Office Predictions: February 7-9

The Lego Movie should be poised to take the box office by storm next weekend and end the three week reign of Ride Along at the top spot. In fact, there are two other newbies entering the marketplace on Friday as George Clooney’s The Monuments Men and Vampire Academy both debut. You can find my detailed prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/02/02/the-lego-movie-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/02/02/the-monuments-men-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/02/02/vampire-academy-box-office-prediction/

My estimates reflect a belief that Lego will open with very healthy results while The Monuments Men will have a middling premiere with a rather weak opening for Vampire Academy. The new pictures should occupy the top three slots with holdovers Ride Along and Frozen in a tight race for fourth place.

And, with that, my predictions for the upcoming weekend’s top five:

1. The Lego Movie

Predicted Gross: $54.2 million

2. The Monuments Men

Predicted Gross: $16.1 million

3. Vampire Academy

Predicted Gross: $8.4 million

4. Ride Along

Predicted Gross: $6.9 million (representing a drop of 43%)

5. Frozen

Predicted Gross: $6.6 million (representing a drop of 25%)

Box Office Results (January 31-February 2)

The Super Bowl weekend brought an expected quiet frame at multiplexes. As predicted, Ride Along held #1 for its third weekend with $12 million, just above my $11.3M estimate. Disney’s Frozen, with its new sing-along version, was second with $8.9 million – below my $10.7M projection.

The Zac Efron comedy That Awkward Moment took third with an OK $8.7 million for its debut, barely above my $8M projection. The Nut Job was fourth with $7.2 million, right in line with my $7.5M estimate. Lone Survivor took fifth with $7 million (I had it outside the top five).

Where I went wrong was giving Jason Reitman’s Labor Day too much credit. The Kate Winslet/Josh Brolin drama managed only a seventh place debut with $5.1 million, well below my $8.8M projection.

As always, I’ll have early updates posted on the blog’s Facebook page Saturday with final results Monday. And on Sunday – I’ll have projections for all four openings over Valentine’s/President’s Day weekend: Robocop, About Last Night, Endless Love, and Winter’s Tale. Until next time!

The Monuments Men Box Office Prediction

For much of 2013, George Clooney’s The Monuments Men was looked at as a potential Oscar contender and was scheduled to be released in December. Last fall it was pushed back to February and now it appears we may know why. Reviews have not been too kind and the film currently sits at only 36% on Rotten Tomatoes. Simply put, The Monuments Men was not going to be recognized by the Academy and Columbia Pictures probably realized it.

What impact will the negative critical reaction have? At one time, I might’ve thought Monuments could reach an opening gross similar to what Argo did ($19M) or even Captain Phillips ($25M). Now I’m skeptical. The World War II era picture focuses on people tasked with saving cultural artifacts before the Hitler regime destroys them. Clooney directs and stars and he’s brought in an impressive cast that includes Matt Damon, Bill Murray, Cate Blanchett, John Goodman, Jean Dujardin, Hugh Bonneville, and Bob Balaban. Where Monuments Men could score is with adult filmgoers looking for something to watch after they’ve seen the Oscar favorites.

Having said that, the unfavorable reaction so far doesn’t help. I believe this won’t reach past $20 million and that a debut in the mid to late teens is more probable.

The Monuments Men opening weekend prediction: $16.1 million