Guy Ritchie and Jason Statham’s violently comedic cinematic partnership continues on March 3rd with Operation Fortune: Ruse de Guerre. The spy pic reunites the director and lead nearly two years after their fourth collaboration Wrath of Man. Costars include Aubrey Plaza, Josh Hartnett, Cary Elwes, Bugsy Malone, and Hugh Grant (who has appeared in Ritchie’s The Man from U.N.C.L.E. and The Gentlemen).
Fortune has not been paved with a smooth road to domestic release. It was first slated for stateside distribution in early 2022. However, the film’s depiction of Ukrainian baddies scuttled the premiere due to the nation’s conflict with Russia. Lionsgate picked up the rights and recently announced the early March output. It has already been out in numerous territories with $30 million in the bank. Reviews are so-so with 65% on Rotten Tomatoes.
This hasn’t had much time for a spirited marketing campaign. In May of 2021, Wrath of Man managed just over $8 million when theaters were deep in the midst of the pandemic. However, it debuted on nearly 3000 screens while Fortune is pegged for around 2000.
There’s also Creed III which should siphon away plenty of potential moviegoers. I believe the tale of Fortune‘s gross will be a mid single digits start.
Operation Fortune: Ruse de Guerre opening weekend prediction: $4 million
Director Guy Ritchie has, in recent years, brought back Sherlock Holmes to pleasing box office results and The Man From U.N.C.L.E. to less than pleasing returns. Next weekend comes his take on another well-known character as King Arthur: Legend of the Sword debuts.
Charlie Hunnam is the title character in this adventure epic that costars Jude Law, Astrid Berges-Frisbey, Djimon Hounsou, Aidan Gillen, and Eric Bana. The Warner Bros production comes with a budget just north of $100 million.
The last time the legend of King Arthur was on the screen in the summer was 13 years ago and the result was a flop. Antoine Fuqua’s take that starred Clive Owen and Keira Knightley managed just a $15 million opening weekend and $51M eventual domestic gross.
Legend of the Sword should fair better, but by how much? Well, there is a considerable roadblock with Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 being in its second weekend. Poor reviews won’t help. I’ll predict this gets to low to mid 20s, which could put it in a battle for second place with Snatched (though Sword is getting the edge).
King Arthur: Legend of the Sword opening weekend prediction: $24.4 million
Prior to 2015, not many knew the name Alicia Vikander but that has certainly changed and the 27 year old Swedish actress looks primed for Oscar attention and stateside stardom. In the spring, her role as robot Ava in Alex Garland’s science fiction sleeper hit Ex Machina garnered Vikander well deserved attention.
The momentum has kept up this fall with her role in Tom Hooper’s The Danish Girl, in which Vikander is expected to land (and potentially win) the Supporting Actress category at the Academy Awards. There’s even a long shot possibility that she could be nominated for both of the aforementioned pictures.
Ms. Vikander did also appear in two other high profile efforts that failed to perform well – The Man from U.N.C.L.E. and Burnt. Yet her exposure this year has led to choice projects in 2016: 17th century drama Tulip Fever with Dane DeHaan and Christoph Waltz, The Light Between Oceans alongside Michael Fassbender, and what will surely be her most mainstream pic to date, the untitled fifth Jason Bourne flick with Matt Damon.
All in all, Vikander made a big impression in 2015 that is bound to carry on.
BLOGGER’S NOTE (Thursday, August 27) – I am revising my top five predictions and accounting for the Christian themed drama War Room (opening on approximately 1100 screens). I believe it will manage to snag the #4 spot.
The last weekend of August should bring forth some serious box office doldrums as it usually does this time of year. There are two new entries out: the Zac Efron DJ drama We Are Your Friends and Owen Wilson action thriller No Escape. You can read my detailed prediction posts on each here:
I frankly don’t expect much from either, but Friends stands the better chance of over performing and possibly even nabbing the #1 spot. I don’t think it’ll quite get there though and that means Straight Outta Compton should manage to stay #1 for the third weekend in a row. Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation should drop from 2nd to 3rd.
And with that, my predictions for the weekend’s top five:
Straight Outta Compton
Predicted Gross: $12.5 million (representing a drop of 52%)
2. We Are Your Friends
Predicted Gross: $10.9 million
3. Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation
Predicted Gross: $7.4 million (representing a drop of 37%)
4. War Room
Predicted Gross: $5.7 million
5. No Escape
Predicted Gross: $4.7 million (Friday to Sunday), $6.3 million (Wednesday to Sunday prediction)
Box Office Results (August 21-23)
The N.W.A. biopic continued to rule the charts as Straight Outta Compton took in $26.3 million in its sophomore frame, just above my $24.6M estimate. The acclaimed pic has amassed an impressive $111 million in ten days.
Staying in the runner-up spot was Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation which added $11.4 million to its coffers, just ahead of my $10.4M projection. Its total stands at $157M.
Horror sequel Sinister 2 sputtered with just $10.5 million, well below my $16.2M prediction and well under the $18 million earned by the original for its start. Hitman: Agent 47 debuted in fourth with an unremarkable $8.3 million, though it did top my $6M estimate.
The Man from U.N.C.L.E. dropped to fifth in weekend #2 with $7.3 million, in line with my $7.1M prediction. Its sleepy two week total is at $26M. Finally, the Jesse Eisenberg/Kristen Stewart action comedy American Ultra tanked in sixth place with just $5.4 million, falling below my $9.8M estimate.
As we enter the doldrums of late August at the box office, we have three new entries populating the multiplexes: horror sequel Sinister 2, Jesse Eisenberg/Kristen Stewart action comedy American Ultra, and video game inspired Hitman: Agent 47. You can read my detailed prediction posts on each here:
I don’t expect any of them to outdo the second weekend of current champ Straight Outta Compton, which made a boatload of cash this weekend (more on that below). Sinister 2 seems to be the only one with a shot, as horror films do often over perform. I expect both Ultra and Hitman to premiere under double digits.
Compton should actually drop precipitously in its sophomore frame considering many moviegoers likely wanted to rush out and see it. For comparison sake, Eminem’s 8 Mile dipped 62% in its second weekend and Compton could drop close to that (which is nothing against it considering it made way more out of the gate than anybody figured it would).
As for other holdovers, I look for Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation to eek out a third place showing over Ultra and The Man from U.N.C.L.E. taking the five spot in weekend #2 after its disappointing opening.
And with that, my predictions for the weekend’s top six:
Straight Outta Compton
Predicted Gross: $24.6 million (representing a drop of 59%)
2. Sinister 2
Predicted Gross: $16.2 million
3. Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation
Predicted Gross: $10.4 million (representing a drop of 41%)
4. American Ultra
Predicted Gross: $9.8 million
5. The Man from U.N.C.L.E.
Predicted Gross: $7.1 million (representing a drop of 47%)
6. Hitman: Agent 47
Predicted Gross: $6 million
Box Office Results (August 14-16)
As mentioned, the NWA biopic Straight Outta Compton capitalized on its great reviews, music, and word of mouth and had a massive opening that exceeded all expectations. The film grossed an astonishing $60.2 million, blasting past my $39.3M estimate. With a reported budget of just $29 million, Compton represents another blockbuster for Universal Pictures in 2015.
Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation dropped to second in weekend #3 with $17.1 million, a bit above my $14.9M projection. The hit fifth entry in Tom Cruise’s franchise stands at $138M so far.
The news was not good for The Man from U.N.C.L.E., which stalled with just a $13.4 million opening, under my $18.6M prediction. Audience attention was clearly elsewhere over the weekend and this planned franchise will likely end here.
Speaking of possibly dead franchises, the news kept getting worse for last weekend’s bomb Fantastic Four. It dropped a dramatic 68% in weekend #2 with just $8.1 million, under my predicted $11.1M. The Fox property has taken in an embarrassing $42M in ten days.
Finally, the Jason Bateman/Joel Edgerton suspense pic The Gift took in $6.5 million in its second weekend, right in line with my $6.3M estimate. The critically applauded film has made a respectable $23M.
Two high profile releases open up this weekend as the N.W.A. biopic Straight Outta Compton and Guy Ritchie spy thriller The Man from U.N.C.L.E. debut. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each right here:
As I see it, these two newbies should take the top two spots on the charts. I look for Compton to dominate with U.N.C.L.E. having a rather lackluster premiere in the runner-up position.
When it comes to holdovers, Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation should drop to third after two weekends in the #1 spot. I look for Fantastic Four to fall hard after its disastrous opening this past weekend (more on that below). The Gift should round out the top five in its sophomore frame.
And with that, my top five predictions for the weekend:
Straight Outta Compton
Predicted Gross: $39.3 million
2. The Man from U.N.C.L.E.
Predicted Gross: $18.6 million
3. Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation
Predicted Gross: $14.9 million (representing a drop of 47%)
4. Fantastic Four
Predicted Gross: $11.1 million (representing a drop of 56%)
5. The Gift
Predicted Gross: $6.3 million (representing a drop of 46%)
Box Office Results (August 7-9)
Let’s get what I got right out of the way. Though I didn’t have it at #1, Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation managed to stay on top with $28.5 million, on pace with my $28.1M prediction. In ten days, the Tom Cruise sequel has taken in $107 million.
Now… to the Fantastic Four. Wow. 20th Century Fox’s reboot hoped to start a new franchise but the critically drubbed comic book pic landed with a thud at $25.6 million, way below my $47.7M estimate. This is a truly horrible opening for its genre and its dismal C- Cinemascore average marks the worst ever for a superhero flick. Most of its publicity was negative, including creative differences with the studio and director Josh Trank. That coupled with possible superhero pic fatigue doomed this project and it’s hard to envision a Fantastic Four 2 coming out ever… or at least anytime in the near future until the studio assesses what went so very wrong.
Thriller The Gift debuted third with a reasonable $11.8 million. I incorrectly had it performing better with $16.8M, but this is still a sturdy opening for a low-budget flick with no big box office draws. Solid reviews likely helped.
Holdovers populated the four and five spots and I incorrectly had them both outside the top five. Vacation was fourth in weekend two with $8.9 million for a $37M total so far and Marvel’s Ant-Man was fifth with $7.9 million for a $147M haul.
Two other newcomers fell considerably below my projections. Meryl Streep’s Ricki and the Flash sputtered with just $6.6 million for a seventh place start (I predicted $11.4M). The stop motion animated pic Shaun the Sheep Movie fared worse with only $4 million for an 11th place showing (I said $8.2M).
A summer action pic based on a popular 1960s spy TV show? No, not Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation, but The Man from U.N.C.L.E. which opens next Friday. Don’t expect this to reach close to Rogue numbers. Sherlock Holmes director Guy Ritchie is behind the camera with Man of Steel Henry Cavill and Lone Ranger Armie Hammer in the leads. Ex Machina’s Alicia Vikander and Hugh Grant are among the supporting players.
While the marketing campaign has been fairly robust, it’s hard to see U.N.C.L.E. breaking through in any significant way. Straight Outta Compton, debuting the same day, appears poised for a splashy start while Fantastic Four will be entering weekend #2 with Rogue Nation likely doing pretty strong biz in its third frame. None of the stars here are capable of opening a picture and familiarity with the TV show from 50 years is limited.
Add that up and I’ll predict this $75 million budgeted effort doesn’t reach $20 million out of the gate.
The Man from U.N.C.L.E. opening weekend prediction: $18.6 million
For my Straight Outta Compton prediction, click here:
If it seems a bit too early to get into 2015 Oscar predictions not even two weeks after the ceremony for 2014 movies, I give you The Danish Girl. It doesn’t come out until November yet it undeniably seems to have awards cred firmly established.
Why? Its director Tom Hooper has seen his two previous features earn Best Picture nominations. 2010’s The King’s Speech won the big prize while 2012’s Les Miserables got a nod. The Danish Girl is set in the 1920s and tells the true story of Lili Elbe, the first person to undergo sexual reassignment surgery.
Hooper has also directed five performers to acting nominations with including two winners: Colin Firth as Best Actor for Speech and Anne Hathaway as Supporting Actress in Miserables. The character of Elbe is played by Eddie Redmayne, who is fresh off an Oscar victory for Actor in The Theory of Everything. This seems like just the kind of role that could easily return him to the party. Whether or not he can pull a Tom Hanks and win twice in a row remains to be seen. As Elbe’s wife, keep an eye on Swedish actress Alicia Vikander in either the Actress or Supporting Actress category. She’s unknown in the states at present time but has a slew of movies out this year, such as this summer’s high profile The Man From U.N.C.L.E.
With its director and actor having just recently tasted Oscar glory, The Danish Girl earns its designation as my first 2015 film to keep an eye on in the awards derby. It comes out November 27.
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