May 17-19 Box Office Predictions

Blogger’s Note (05/15): My Parabellum prediction has risen from $37.8 million to $45.8 million

The three-week reign of Avengers: Endgame atop the charts should end this weekend at the hands of Keanu Reeves as his action threequel John Wick: Chapter 3Parabellum is unveiled. We also have canine sequel A Dog’s Journey and YA romance The Sun Is Also a Star out. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/05/07/john-wick-chapter-3-parabellum-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/05/10/a-dogs-journey-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/05/10/the-sun-is-also-a-star-box-office-prediction/

Mr. Wick appears poised for a healthy start in first. The 2014 original made $14 million out of the gate but became a cult favorite shortly thereafter. Its 2017 follow-up brought in $30 million. Some have Parabellum in the mid 40s range, but I’m thinking high 30s is more probable. That should still be more than enough to ensure it the #1 slot.

A mid 50s dip should drop Endgame to second with Pokemon Detective Pikachu in third. I have A Dog’s Journey tapped for just under teens (not matching the $18 million earned by predecessor A Dog’s Purpose).

My $5.5 million forecast for The Sun Is Also a Star likely leaves it in sixth with The Hustle rounding out the top five in its sophomore frame.

Here’s how I have the weekend playing out:

1. John Wick: Chapter 3Parabellum

Predicted Gross: $45.8 million

2. Avengers: Endgame

Predicted Gross: $28.5 million

3. Pokemon Detective Pikachu

Predicted Gross: $25.2 million

4. A Dog’s Journey

Predicted Gross: $11.8 million

5. The Hustle

Predicted Gross: $7.1 million

Box Office Results (May 1012)

It was a three-peat for the gargantuan superhero squad as Avengers: Endgame took in $63.2 million (below my $71.2 million take). The film has amassed a jaw-dropping $723 million total. That’s the fourth heftiest third weekend in box office history and it’s climbed to third all-time domestically in overall gross, with Avatar well in its sights.

Pokemon Detective Pikachu got a silver medal with a decent $54.3 million, under my $64.8 million projection. The Ryan Reynolds voiced pic fell within the range of expectations, albeit on the lower end.

The Hustle with Anne Hathaway and Rebel Wilson was third and opened right in line with estimates at $13 million (I said $13.4 million). A weak B- CinemaScore grade indicates audiences weren’t impressed.

Fourth place belonged to The Intruder as it had a nice hold in weekend #2. I incorrectly had it outside the top five, but it made $7.1 million for a two-week haul of $21 million.

Long Shot was in the five spot with $6.2 million (I said $5.5 million) and $19 million total.

The Diane Keaton cheerleading comedy Poms was a dud in sixth with just $5.3 million. I reached higher at $8.7 million.

Tolkien was another disappointment in ninth with a measly $2.2 million. I went with $3.1 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

May 10-12 Box Office Predictions

Blogger’s Update (05/08): I am downgrading my Pikachu estimate from $74.8 million to $64.8 million and now giving Endgame a third weekend atop the charts

I’m predicting a photo finish as Avengers: Endgame gets legitimate competition in the form of Pokemon Detective Pikachu featuring the vocal stylings of Ryan Reynolds this weekend. We also have a pair of comedies marketed to the female crowd: Anne Hathaway and Rebel Wilson in the Dirty Rotten Scoundrels remake The Hustle and Diane Keaton cheerleading flick Poms. In more limited release, there’s the biopic Tolkien with Nicholas Hoult. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of the newcomers here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/04/30/pokemon-detective-pikachu-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/04/30/the-hustle-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/05/02/poms-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/05/04/tolkien-box-office-prediction/

About that photo finish… estimates for Pokemon are all over the map and they have been dropping a bit in recent days. I’ve landed with it having a debut in the mid 70s range. That puts it where I expect Endgame to be. If the record breaking superhero epic manages to top $68 million this weekend, it will achieve the second best third weekend of all time behind Star Wars: The Force Awakens. That would match what it did this past weekend (more on that below).

I’m giving Pikachu an ever so slight edge to nab the #1 spot. We shall see if that changes as the week goes on.

As for the fresh comedies, The Hustle and Poms should get the three and four spots, respectively. I’ve downgraded both of my forecasts today, especially after seeing the disappointing gross of Long Shot.

Tolkien is only hitting a smallish 1300 screens and my $3.1 million projection leaves it outside the top five. Speaking of the five position, that could be interesting as The Intruder, Long Shot, and UglyDolls could all get it depending on their sophomore dips. I’ll give Long Shot a minor edge.

And with that, my take on the weekend ahead:

1. Avengers: Endgame

Predicted Gross: $71.2 million

2. Pokemon Detective Pikachu

Predicted Gross: $64.8 million

3. The Hustle

Predicted Gross: $13.4 million

4. Poms

Predicted Gross: $8.7 million

5. Long Shot

Predicted Gross: $5.5 million

Box Office Results (May 35)

Avengers: Endgame finally found a record it couldn’t smash this weekend, though I’m sure Disney isn’t too upset about that. In its second weekend, it grossed $147.3 million and that fell under my $153.6 million estimate. That’s also just under the $149 million earned by The Force Awakens in its second weekend, so it had to settle for runner-up record status. With $621 million in the bank, Endgame is already the #9 domestic earner in history. Even more impressively, the film is already #2 worldwide as it surpassed Titanic and is behind only Avatar.

All new titles came in under expectations. As predicted, thriller The Intruder performed the best in second with $10.8 million. While quite a bit under my $15.2 million estimate, it’s a solid performance considering it cost a scant $8 million to produce.

Long Shot with Seth Rogen and Charlize Theron couldn’t connect with audiences despite solid reviews. Its third place showing was only $9.7 million compared to my $13.1 million projection.

The news was even worse for the animated UglyDolls. It bombed in fourth with $8.6 million. I went higher at $13.8 million.

Captain Marvel rounded out the top five with $4.2 million (I said $5.9 million). Total stands at $420 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

May 3-5 Box Office Predictions

As we all catch our breath from the astounding debut of Avengers: Endgame, the first weekend of May brings three new titles all vying for second place behind Tony Stark and company. They are the animated UglyDolls, Seth Rogen/Charlize Theron comedy Long Shot, and homeownership thriller The Intruder with a demented Dennis Quaid. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/04/23/uglydolls-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/04/24/long-shot-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/04/23/the-intruder-box-office-prediction/

All three films have legit chances at premiering in second. I’m skeptical about UglyDolls, even though the plush toys it’s based on are well-known. Long Shot has reviews on its side, but could be more of a slow builder. That leaves The Intruder and I do believe it could appeal to an older and African-American audience. Therefore I’ll say it becomes the silver medalist.

This brings us to the sophomore frame of Endgame. It broke basically every record there is over the weekend (more on that below). Predecessor Infinity War dipped 55% last year. This might be a tad more front loaded, but probably not by much. I’ll give it a 57% slide. That means another record should be in store as my estimate puts it over the best all-time second weekend, which is Star Wars: The Force Awakens at $149 million.

And with that, my top 5 estimates for the weekend ahead:

1. Avengers: Endgame

Predicted Gross: $153.6 million

2. The Intruder

Predicted Gross: $15.2 million

3. UglyDolls

Predicted Gross: $13.8 million

4. Long Shot

Predicted Gross: $13.1 million

5. Captain Marvel

Predicted Gross: $5.9 million

Box Office Results (April 2628)

History was made this weekend as Avengers: Endgame rocketed past even the most lofty expectations and left record after record in its wake. The MCU epic took in an otherworldly $357.1 million, scorching my $289.6 million projection. That’s not only the biggest opening of all time… it’s $100 million more than previous holder Avengers: Infinity War from last summer. The question as to whether it eventually surpasses the $936 million achieved by all-time domestic earner The Force Awakens is real.

As if Endgame didn’t provide enough embarrassment of riches, Captain Marvel climbed to second (thanks drive-ins) with $8.3 million (I said $8.7 million) for $413 million overall.

The Curse of La Llorona was third with $8 million compared to my higher $10 million forecast. The two-week tally is $41 million.

Breakthrough was fourth with $6.8 million (I said $6.3 million). Total is $26 million.

Shazam! rounded out the top five with $5.5 million. I was generous at $7.4 million. It’s at $131 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Long Shot Box Office Prediction

Seth Rogen and Charlize Theron headline the improbable rom com Long Shot, out in theaters next weekend. It marks the latest collaboration between Rogen and director Jonathan Levine after 50/50 and The Night Before (Levine’s latest was 2017’s Snatched). The film casts Theron as the U.S. Secretary of State who strikes up a romance with Rogen’s journalist. Costars include O’Shea Jackson Jr., June Diane Raphael, Andy Serkis, Alexander Skarsgard, and Lisa Kudrow.

Shot premiered in March at the South by Southwest Festival to favorable reviews and it stands at 88% on Rotten Tomatoes. A comparison to The Night Before is tricky. That pic opened in November 2015 on the weekend before Thanksgiving and against the finale of The Hunger Games franchise. The result was just a $9.8 million start (it legged out well the following holiday weekend).

I believe Long Shot will top that number, but perhaps with low teens as it hopes for minimal drops in subsequent frames. If so, this could fall behind the debut grosses of its competition – The Intruder and UglyDolls.

Long Shot opening weekend prediction: $13.1 million

For my The Intruder prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/04/23/the-intruder-box-office-prediction/

For my UglyDolls prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/04/23/uglydolls-box-office-prediction/

The Intruder Box Office Prediction

Home is apparently where the homicidal maniacs are when The Intruder debuts next weekend. The thriller casts Michael Ealy and Meagan Good are new homebuyers whose previous owner (Dennis Quaid) goes to deadly lengths to keep it. Deon Taylor, maker of Meet the Blacks and Traffik, directs.

The pic was originally slated for April 26, but set its date back a week when Avengers: Endgame snatched up that real estate. The Screen Gems release looks to serve as counter programming to the MCU behemoth’s sophomore weekend.

It could find some success in that regard, particularly with African-American audiences. Opening against the animated Uglydolls and comedy Long Shot, this has a legit shot at having the healthiest debut in the low to mid teens.

The Intruder opening weekend prediction: $15.2 million

For my UglyDolls prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/04/23/uglydolls-box-office-prediction/

For my Long Shot prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/04/24/long-shot-box-office-prediction/