Moonlight Oscar nominee Naomie Harris is a rookie officer up against dirty cops in next weekend’s racially tinged action thriller Black and Blue. It comes from Deon Taylor, who directed this summer’s thriller The Intruder. Costars include Tyrese Gibson, Frank Grillo, and Reid Scott.
Late October is typically not a time period where new products post impressive debuts. Buzz is quiet and reviews are middling with a current 57% Rotten Tomatoes score. None of the cast members are much of a draw. Blue will be lucky to attract even the $7.6 million achieved last October by The Hate U Give. It had similar subject matter, but far better critical reaction.
I believe that means mid single digits is probable.
Black and Blue opening weekend prediction: $4.8 million
Blogger’s Note (05/15): My Parabellum prediction has risen from $37.8 million to $45.8 million
The three-week reign of Avengers: Endgame atop the charts should end this weekend at the hands of Keanu Reeves as his action threequel John Wick: Chapter3 – Parabellum is unveiled. We also have canine sequel ADog’sJourney and YA romance TheSunIsAlsoaStar out. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:
Mr. Wick appears poised for a healthy start in first. The 2014 original made $14 million out of the gate but became a cult favorite shortly thereafter. Its 2017 follow-up brought in $30 million. Some have Parabellum in the mid 40s range, but I’m thinking high 30s is more probable. That should still be more than enough to ensure it the #1 slot.
A mid 50s dip should drop Endgame to second with PokemonDetectivePikachu in third. I have ADog’sJourney tapped for just under teens (not matching the $18 million earned by predecessor ADog’sPurpose).
My $5.5 million forecast for TheSunIsAlsoaStar likely leaves it in sixth with TheHustle rounding out the top five in its sophomore frame.
Here’s how I have the weekend playing out:
1. JohnWick: Chapter3 – Parabellum
Predicted Gross: $45.8 million
2. Avengers: Endgame
Predicted Gross: $28.5 million
Predicted Gross: $25.2 million
Predicted Gross: $11.8 million
Predicted Gross: $7.1 million
It was a three-peat for the gargantuan superhero squad as Avengers: Endgame took in $63.2 million (below my $71.2 million take). The film has amassed a jaw-dropping $723 million total. That’s the fourth heftiest third weekend in box office history and it’s climbed to third all-time domestically in overall gross, with Avatar well in its sights.
PokemonDetectivePikachu got a silver medal with a decent $54.3 million, under my $64.8 million projection. The Ryan Reynolds voiced pic fell within the range of expectations, albeit on the lower end.
TheHustle with Anne Hathaway and Rebel Wilson was third and opened right in line with estimates at $13 million (I said $13.4 million). A weak B- CinemaScore grade indicates audiences weren’t impressed.
Fourth place belonged to TheIntruder as it had a nice hold in weekend #2. I incorrectly had it outside the top five, but it made $7.1 million for a two-week haul of $21 million.
LongShot was in the five spot with $6.2 million (I said $5.5 million) and $19 million total.
The Diane Keaton cheerleading comedy Poms was a dud in sixth with just $5.3 million. I reached higher at $8.7 million.
Tolkien was another disappointment in ninth with a measly $2.2 million. I went with $3.1 million.
Blogger’s Update (05/08): I am downgrading my Pikachu estimate from $74.8 million to $64.8 million and now giving Endgame a third weekend atop the charts
I’m predicting a photo finish as Avengers: Endgame gets legitimate competition in the form of PokemonDetectivePikachu featuring the vocal stylings of Ryan Reynolds this weekend. We also have a pair of comedies marketed to the female crowd: Anne Hathaway and Rebel Wilson in the DirtyRottenScoundrels remake TheHustle and Diane Keaton cheerleading flick Poms. In more limited release, there’s the biopic Tolkien with Nicholas Hoult. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of the newcomers here:
About that photo finish… estimates for Pokemon are all over the map and they have been dropping a bit in recent days. I’ve landed with it having a debut in the mid 70s range. That puts it where I expect Endgame to be. If the record breaking superhero epic manages to top $68 million this weekend, it will achieve the second best third weekend of all time behind StarWars: TheForceAwakens. That would match what it did this past weekend (more on that below).
I’m giving Pikachu an ever so slight edge to nab the #1 spot. We shall see if that changes as the week goes on.
As for the fresh comedies, TheHustle and Poms should get the three and four spots, respectively. I’ve downgraded both of my forecasts today, especially after seeing the disappointing gross of LongShot.
Tolkien is only hitting a smallish 1300 screens and my $3.1 million projection leaves it outside the top five. Speaking of the five position, that could be interesting as TheIntruder, LongShot, and UglyDolls could all get it depending on their sophomore dips. I’ll give LongShot a minor edge.
And with that, my take on the weekend ahead:
1. Avengers: Endgame
Predicted Gross: $71.2 million
Predicted Gross: $64.8 million
Predicted Gross: $13.4 million
Predicted Gross: $8.7 million
Predicted Gross: $5.5 million
Avengers: Endgame finally found a record it couldn’t smash this weekend, though I’m sure Disney isn’t too upset about that. In its second weekend, it grossed $147.3 million and that fell under my $153.6 million estimate. That’s also just under the $149 million earned by TheForceAwakens in its second weekend, so it had to settle for runner-up record status. With $621 million in the bank, Endgame is already the #9 domestic earner in history. Even more impressively, the film is already #2 worldwide as it surpassed Titanic and is behind only Avatar.
All new titles came in under expectations. As predicted, thriller TheIntruder performed the best in second with $10.8 million. While quite a bit under my $15.2 million estimate, it’s a solid performance considering it cost a scant $8 million to produce.
LongShot with Seth Rogen and Charlize Theron couldn’t connect with audiences despite solid reviews. Its third place showing was only $9.7 million compared to my $13.1 million projection.
The news was even worse for the animated UglyDolls. It bombed in fourth with $8.6 million. I went higher at $13.8 million.
CaptainMarvel rounded out the top five with $4.2 million (I said $5.9 million). Total stands at $420 million.
As we all catch our breath from the astounding debut of Avengers: Endgame, the first weekend of May brings three new titles all vying for second place behind Tony Stark and company. They are the animated UglyDolls, Seth Rogen/Charlize Theron comedy LongShot, and homeownership thriller TheIntruder with a demented Dennis Quaid. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:
All three films have legit chances at premiering in second. I’m skeptical about UglyDolls, even though the plush toys it’s based on are well-known. LongShot has reviews on its side, but could be more of a slow builder. That leaves TheIntruder and I do believe it could appeal to an older and African-American audience. Therefore I’ll say it becomes the silver medalist.
This brings us to the sophomore frame of Endgame. It broke basically every record there is over the weekend (more on that below). Predecessor InfinityWar dipped 55% last year. This might be a tad more front loaded, but probably not by much. I’ll give it a 57% slide. That means another record should be in store as my estimate puts it over the best all-time second weekend, which is StarWars: TheForceAwakens at $149 million.
And with that, my top 5 estimates for the weekend ahead:
1. Avengers: Endgame
Predicted Gross: $153.6 million
Predicted Gross: $15.2 million
Predicted Gross: $13.8 million
Predicted Gross: $13.1 million
Predicted Gross: $5.9 million
History was made this weekend as Avengers: Endgame rocketed past even the most lofty expectations and left record after record in its wake. The MCU epic took in an otherworldly $357.1 million, scorching my $289.6 million projection. That’s not only the biggest opening of all time… it’s $100 million more than previous holder Avengers: InfinityWar from last summer. The question as to whether it eventually surpasses the $936 million achieved by all-time domestic earner TheForceAwakens is real.
As if Endgame didn’t provide enough embarrassment of riches, CaptainMarvel climbed to second (thanks drive-ins) with $8.3 million (I said $8.7 million) for $413 million overall.
TheCurseofLaLlorona was third with $8 million compared to my higher $10 million forecast. The two-week tally is $41 million.
Breakthrough was fourth with $6.8 million (I said $6.3 million). Total is $26 million.
Shazam! rounded out the top five with $5.5 million. I was generous at $7.4 million. It’s at $131 million.
Seth Rogen and Charlize Theron headline the improbable rom com LongShot, out in theaters next weekend. It marks the latest collaboration between Rogen and director Jonathan Levine after 50/50 and TheNightBefore (Levine’s latest was 2017’s Snatched). The film casts Theron as the U.S. Secretary of State who strikes up a romance with Rogen’s journalist. Costars include O’Shea Jackson Jr., June Diane Raphael, Andy Serkis, Alexander Skarsgard, and Lisa Kudrow.
Shot premiered in March at the South by Southwest Festival to favorable reviews and it stands at 88% on Rotten Tomatoes. A comparison to TheNightBefore is tricky. That pic opened in November 2015 on the weekend before Thanksgiving and against the finale of TheHungerGames franchise. The result was just a $9.8 million start (it legged out well the following holiday weekend).
I believe LongShot will top that number, but perhaps with low teens as it hopes for minimal drops in subsequent frames. If so, this could fall behind the debut grosses of its competition – TheIntruder and UglyDolls.
LongShot opening weekend prediction: $13.1 million
Home is apparently where the homicidal maniacs are when TheIntruder debuts next weekend. The thriller casts Michael Ealy and Meagan Good are new homebuyers whose previous owner (Dennis Quaid) goes to deadly lengths to keep it. Deon Taylor, maker of MeettheBlacks and Traffik, directs.
The pic was originally slated for April 26, but set its date back a week when Avengers: Endgame snatched up that real estate. The Screen Gems release looks to serve as counter programming to the MCU behemoth’s sophomore weekend.
It could find some success in that regard, particularly with African-American audiences. Opening against the animated Uglydolls and comedy LongShot, this has a legit shot at having the healthiest debut in the low to mid teens.
TheIntruder opening weekend prediction: $15.2 million