Box Office Predictions: July 22-24

Three new titles hit screens this weekend as sequels Star Trek Beyond and Ice Age: Collision Course look to battle for the top spot with low-budget horror pic Lights Out opening as well. You can peruse my detailed predictions posts on each here:

My estimates have both sequels not bringing in what their predecessors managed. I have Beyond slated to debut about 25% lower than 2013’s Star Trek Into Darkness with Collision Course premiering a bit below 2012’s Ice Age: Continental Drift. That would give Beyond the edge to open at #1 with Course placing second. My just over double digits projections for Lights Out would put it in fifth.

As for holdovers, two-week champ The Secret Life of Pets should dip to third. Many eyes will be on the second weekend of Ghostbusters, which pretty much debuted in line with expectations (more on that below). However, it may be its second week performance that helps determine its true viability as a budding franchise. I have it losing more than half its audience.

And with that, my top 5 predictions for the weekend:

Star Trek Beyond

Predicted Gross: $53.4 million

2. Ice Age: Collision Course

Predicted Gross: $28.3 million

3. The Secret Life of Pets

Predicted Gross: $24.9 million

4. Ghostbusters

Predicted Gross: $19.8 million

5. Lights Out

Predicted Gross: $10.2 million

Box Office Results (July 15-17)

Moviegoers called up The Secret Life of Pets and not the Ghostbusters for their most favored title this weekend as the animated mega-hit took in $50.8 million (under my $57.6M prediction) for a ten-day tally of $203M.

The Ghostbusters, as mentioned, premiered in line with most expectations at $46 million – not quite reaching my $47.3M projection. The reboot of the beloved 80s franchise may need a solid second weekend to justify its existence as a franchise. I have my doubts.

The Legend of Tarzan was third, grossing $11.4 million (I was close with $11.1M) and crossing the century mark for a $103M total.

Finding Dory took fourth with $11.2 million. My guess? $11.2M! The Pixar smash and biggest hit of the year thus far has amassed $445M.

Sophomoric comedy Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates rounded out the top five in its sophomore weekend with $7.6 million (a bit under my $8.9M estimate) for a total of $31M.

Finally, the Bryan Cranston crime thriller The Infiltrator landed in seventh place – debuting with $5.3 million over the traditional weekend and $6.7 million since its Wednesday. This just outpaced my respective predictions of $4.6M and $6.1M.

And that’ll do it for now, folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: July 15-17

Blogger’s note – on vacation currently so keeping things shorter and sweeter than normal.

The third weekend of July brings the Ghostbusters (albeit a new team) to theaters for the first time in nearly three decades, as Bryan Cranston’s crime drama The Infiltrator opens Wednesday. You can find my detailed prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/07/06/ghostbusters-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/07/06/the-infiltrator-box-office-prediction/

Ghostbusters may fall short of the #1 spot, based on my projection if The Secret Life of Pets falls just over in the 40s after its massive debut (more on that below).

That should leave Tarzan and Dory fighting it out for the three spot with Mike, Dave and their wedding dates rounding out the top five. My projection for The Infiltrator ($4.6 million Friday to Sunday and $6.1M from Wednesday to Sunday) leaves it outside the high five.

With that – my predicted top 5:

The Secret Life of Pets

Predicted Gross: $57.6 million

2. Ghostbusters

Predicted Gross: $47.3 million

3. Finding Dory

Predicted Gross: $11.2 million

4. The Legend of Tarzan

Predicted Gross: $11.1 million

5. Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates

Predicted Gross: $8.9 million

BOX OFFICE RESULTS (JULY 8-10)

The Secret Life of Pets smashed projections this weekend with $104.3 million – lapping my $73.7M estimate. That’s good for the sixth highest animated debut ever and what’ll surely be a new franchise.

The Legend of Tarzan stayed in second with $21 million (just above my $19.8M prediction) for a two week tally of $81M. Finding Dory slipped to third after three weeks on top with $20.8 million (a touch under my $23.3M forecast) for a $423M overall haul.

Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates had a pleasing debut in fourth with $16.6 million, ahead of my prediction of $13.5M.

The Purge: Election Year was fifth with $12.3 million (I said $10.9M) for a ten day total of $58M. Central Intelligence was sixth with $8 million and I incorrectly had outside the top 6. That’s because Steven Spielberg’s The BFG continued its lackluster grosses and dropped further than I anticipated. It was seventh in weekend 2 with $7.8 million – under my $10.6M estimate for a gross of just $38M.

And that’s for now, friends! Until next time…

The Infiltrator Box Office Prediction

Throwing Bryan Cranston into a dangerous drug dealing world worked out pretty well on the small screen with his iconic role as Walter White on “Breaking Bad”. Next Wednesday, Broad Green Pictures is hoping the same holds true with The Infiltrator.

The 1980s set crime drama has Cranston as a customs agent tasked with the unenviable assignment of going undercover in Pablo Escobar’s drug cartel. Brad Furman, maker of The Lincoln Lawyer and 2013’s unfortunate Runner Runner, directs and the supporting cast includes Diane Kruger, Benjamin Bratt, John Leguizamo, and Amy Ryan. The studio is obviously hoping audiences will be primed for some adult counter programming. Reviews thus far have been pretty positive with much of the acclaim centered on Cranston. Looking over some recent similar genre titles – there is some hope. 2012’s Savages debuted to $16 million. Last year’s Sicario managed just over $12 million out of the gate.

Those are the very best case scenarios here. I believe The Infiltrator probably won’t manage double digits, even when including the five-day roll out. It seems highly unlikely to recoup its reported $47 million budget. The pic might have been better off as an early fall release and its best hope could be that viewers get their fix with it when it becomes available for home viewing.

The Infiltrator opening weekend prediction: $4.6 million (Friday to Sunday), $6.1 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

For my Ghostbusters prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/07/06/ghostbusters-box-office-prediction/

Oscar Watch: The Infiltrator

On July 13, The Infiltrator hits theaters and reviews for the 1980s set true life drug tale began surfacing this week. The pic tells the story of a U.S. customs agent who goes undercover in Pablo Escobar’s massive drug empire. Bryan Cranston plays the title character. Brad Furman (who made The Lincoln Lawyer) directs and costars include Diane Kruger, Benjamin Bratt, John Leguizamo, and Amy Ryan.

Reviews have been mostly positive – yet it stands little chance at recognition for Best Picture or for any of its supporting players. Where it could infiltrate Oscar voting is in Best Actor and, if so, it would be Cranston’s second nomination in a row. In 2015, the Breaking Bad performer received his first nod for Trumbo, despite some mixed reviews and weak box office.

Critics have been quick to point out that Cranston’s work here is the brightest spot. It also may not hurt that the actor should receive Emmy attention for his role as President Lyndon Johnson in All the Way.

We’ll see how the Actor race plays out into the fall, but Cranston could be one to watch as The Infiltrator is released in a week and a half.

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