Tag: The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 1

Oscar Predictions: The Long Walk

Based on the first novel he ever wrote (though it wasn’t released until 1979), dystopian horror tale The Long Walk arrives in theaters September 12th. Francis Lawrence (maker of I Am Legend and every Hunger Games flick except the first one) is behind the camera with JT Mollner (writer/director of last year’s critical favorite Strange Darling) scripting. The cast includes Cooper Hoffman, David Jonsson, Garrett Wareing, Tut Nyuot, Charlie Plummer, Ben Wang, Roman Griffin Davis, Jordan Gonzalez, Josh Hamilton, and Mark Hamill (in his second 2025 King adaptation after The Life of Chuck).

In a year where horror is receiving acclaim that the Academy could notice, Walk is generating high praise. Rotten Tomatoes is at 92% with 80 on Metacritic. Seen as an unadaptable novel (which explains how long it took to arrive on the big screen), critics are saying Lawrence/Mollner pull it off.

Unlike Sinners and Weapons, this is not anticipated to be a major box office juggernaut. With Sinners seemingly poised for Academy love and Weapons contending in Supporting Actress and Original Screenplay (if we’re being generous), Walk is unlikely to generate its own awards chatter. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions – The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes

The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes is out November 17th with the review embargo having lifted this week. The prequel brings back Francis Lawrence, director of parts II-IV of the massive Jennifer Lawrence franchise. Tom Blyth (as the younger version of Donald Sutherland’s Snow) and Rachel Zegler lead the cast.

The film is nearly certain to have the lowest opening of the five features in the series. It would need to break $100 million not to and it might be fortunate to take in half of that out of the gate. Snakes currently has the lowest Rotten Tomatoes meter in the quintet at 67%, just under the 70% earned by both editions of Mockingjay.

Despite lauded production design and some decent original songs, Oscar voters completely ignored all previous Games. The best and probably only shot that Ballad has is a ballad from Olivia Rodrigo titled “Can’t Catch Me Now”. My guess is the Academy will still show no appetite for Hunger. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes Box Office Prediction

Serving as a prequel to the four films that generated nearly $3 billion worldwide, The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes is out November 17th. The dystopian adventure returns Francis Lawrence (who made the second through fourth editions) to the director’s seat. Tom Blyth (as a younger version of Donald Sutherland’s Snow), Rachel Zegler, Peter Dinklage, Hunter Schafer, Josh Andrés Rivera, Jason Schwartzman, and Viola Davis lead the cast.

Arriving eight years after Jennifer Lawrence’s Katniss concluded her boffo business, Snakes is expected to have the lowest start of the Games… by a wide margin. Based on the 2020 novel from Suzanne Collins, this series may not be the phenomenon that it was onscreen from 2012-15. That quartet of titles all made over $100 million during their opening weekends with 2013’s Catching Fire setting the high mark at $158 million.

Early word-of-mouth is pretty decent, but this may earn about half of what 2015’s Mockingjay: Part 2 accomplished out of the gate ($102 million). If you’re setting the over/under at $50 million (which is reasonable), I’d suggest the under (if not by much).

The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes opening weekend prediction: $48.3 million

For my Trolls Band Together prediction, click here:

Trolls Band Together Box Office Prediction

For my Thanksgiving prediction, click here:

Thanksgiving Box Office Prediction

For my Next Goal Wins prediction, click here:

Next Goal Wins Box Office Prediction

Top 25 Highest Grossing Actresses of All Time (10-6)

We have now reached Top Ten of the Top 25 Highest Grossing Actresses in box office history.

And now, numbers 10-6 before we reach our finale tomorrow…

10. Jennifer Lawrence

Career Earnings: $2.3 billion

Franchises: The Hunger Games, X-Men

Highest Grossing Picture: The Hunger Games: Catching Fire (2013) – $424 million

Number of $100M+ Earners: 9 (The Hunger Games, The Hunger Games: Catching Fire, The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 1, The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 2, X-Men: First Class, X-Men: Days of Future Past, X-Men: Apocalypse, Silver Linings Playbook, American Hustle)

Lowest Grosser: Garden Party (2008) – $10,000

Overall Rank: 57

9. Anne Hathaway

Career Earnings: $2.3 billion

Franchises: The Princess Diaries, Rio, Alice in Wonderland

Highest Grossing Picture: The Dark Knight Rises (2012) – $448 million

Number of $100M+ Earners: 10 (The Princess Diaries, The Devil Wears Prada, Get Smart, Valentine’s Day, Alice in Wonderland, Rio, The Dark Knight Rises, Les Miserables, Rio 2, Interstellar)

Lowest Grosser: Song One (2015) – $32,000

Overall Rank: 52

8. Sandra Bullock

Career Earnings: $2.4 billion

Franchises: Speed, Miss Congeniality

Highest Grossing Picture: Minions (2015) – $336 million

Number of $100M+ Earners: 8 (Minions, Gravity, The Blind Side, The Proposal, The Heat, Speed, A Time to Kill, Miss Congeniality)

Lowest Grosser: Who Shot Patakango? (1992) – $2,000

Overall Rank: 47

7. Emma Watson

Career Earnings: $2.6 billion

Franchises: Harry Potter

Highest Grossing Picture: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 (2011) – $381 million

Number of $100M+ Earners: 10 (Harry Potter and the Sorcerer’s Stone, Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets, Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban, Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire, Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix, Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2, This is the End, Noah)

Lowest Grosser: Colonia (2016) – $15,000

Overall Rank: 32

6. Elizabeth Banks

Career Earnings: $2.7 billion

Franchises: Hunger Games, Pitch Perfect

Highest Grossing Picture: The Hunger Games: Catching Fire (2013) – $424 million

Number of $100M+ Earners: 8 (The Hunger Games, The Hunger Games: Catching Fire, The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 1, The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 2, The LEGO Movie, Pitch Perfect 2, Seabiscuit, The 40 Yr. Old Virgin

Lowest Grosser: Ordinary Sinner (2003) – $4,000

Top 5 manana!

 

Top 25 Highest Grossing Actresses of All Time (25-21)

Hey all – a couple of years back, I wrote a series counting down the top 25 highest grossing actors at the domestic box office of all time. At that time in August 2014, there were four women among the 25. Now there’s just two.

This led me to think – who are the top 25 actresses in box office history? Well, wonder no more, friends! This five-part series will count down the women who have made the greatest impact financially at the multiplex. As with my previous list, I’ll list their career earnings, franchises they’ve been part of (which helps one to make this list, as you’ll see), their highest and lowest grossing pictures, and the number of $100M plus entries they have appeared in. I’ll also tell you where they rank on the overall list of biggest grossing performers when you factor the fellas in.

Before we dive into the actual list, here’s some women I figured might have been here, but didn’t make the cut. Despite that whole Titanic being one of the hugest blockbusters ever and multiple Oscar nominations thing, no Kate Winslet. No Drew Barrymore or Nicole Kidman or Charlize Theron. Same goes for Reese Witherspoon, Jennifer Aniston and Melissa McCarthy. The Pirates of the Caribbean franchise wasn’t enough to vault Keira Knightley on here.

Enough of who didn’t make the list. Who did? Let’s get to it with numbers 25-21, shall we?

25. Kristen Stewart

Career Earnings: $1.8 billion

Franchises: Twilight

Highest Grossing Picture: The Twilight Saga: Eclipse (2010) – $300 million

Number of $100M+ Earners: 6 (The Twilight Saga: Eclipse, The Twilight Saga: New Moon, The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 1, The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 2, Twilight, Snow White and the Huntsman)

Lowest Grosser: Camp X-Ray (2014) – $13,000

Overall Rank: 116

24. Gwyneth Paltrow

Career Earnings: $1.8 billion

Franchises: The Marvel Cinematic Universe

Highest Grossing Picture: The Avengers (2012) – $623 million

Numbers of $100M+ Earners: 6 (Iron Man 3, The Avengers, Iron Man 2, Iron Man, Shakespeare in Love, Seven)

Lowest Grosser: The Good Night (2007) – $22,000

Overall Rank: 111

23. Halle Berry

Career Earnings: $1.8 billion

Franchises: X-Men

Highest Grossing Picture: X-Men: The Last Stand (2006) – $234 million

Numbers of $100M+ Earners: 7 (X-Men: The Last Stand, X-Men: Days of Future Past, X2: X-Men United, Die Another Day, X-Men, The Flintstones, Robots)

Lowest Grosser: Frankie & Alice (2011) – $706,000

Overall Rank: 106

22. Queen Latifah

Career Earnings: $1.8 billion

Franchises: Ice Age

Highest Grossing Picture: Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs (2009) – $196 million

Numbers of $100M+ Earners: 7 (Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs, Ice Age: The Meltdown, Chicago, Ice Age: Continental Drift, Bringing Down the House, Hairspray, Valentine’s Day)

Lowest Grosser: The Perfect Holiday (2007) – $5.8 million

Overall Rank: 104

21. Julianne Moore

Career Earnings: $1.9 billion

Franchises: The Hunger Games

Highest Grossing Picture: The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 1 (2014) – $337 million

Numbers of $100M+ Earners: 5 (The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 2, The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 1, Hannibal, The Lost World: Jurassic Park, The Fugitive)

Lowest Grosser: World Traveler (2002) – $103,000

Overall Rank: 97

And that’ll do it for today! I’ll be bringing you numbers 20-16 tomorrow…

Box Office Predictions: December 25-28

Three new releases (not the originally planned four) roll out Christmas Day to compete with holdovers The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies, Night at the Museum: Secret of the Tomb, and Annie. They are Disney’s musical fantasy Into the Woods, Angelina Jolie’s adaptation of the bestseller Unbroken, and Mark Wahlberg’s crime drama The Gambler. You can read my detailed prediction posts on each of the new entries here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/12/20/into-the-woods-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/12/20/unbroken-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/12/22/the-gambler-box-office-prediction/

Of course, there was a fourth movie planned for release called The Interview. If you’re not familiar with happened there, you can turn on cable news or open your Twitter or Facebook feed.

I expect Into the Woods and Unbroken to post similar results for second and third place finishes behind current champ The Hobbit. It is worth noting that some prognosticators have Woods outdoing my estimate and it’s certainly possible.

During the Christmas holiday weekend, it’s not uncommon for some films to gain audience from the previous weekend and I’m predicting modest gains for family fare Museum and Annie. 

Wahlberg’s Gambler is likely to settle for a sixth place debut. And with that, my predictions for the Christmas weekend’s top 6:

1. The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies

Predicted Gross: $42.4 million (representing a drop of 23%)

2. Into the Woods

Predicted Gross: $21.8 million (Friday to Sunday), $30.1 million (Thursday to Sunday)

3. Unbroken

Predicted Gross: $20.5 million (Friday to Sunday), $28.6 million (Thursday to Sunday)

4. Night at the Museum: Secret of the Tomb

Predicted Gross: $18.7 million (representing an increase of 10%)

5. Annie

Predicted Gross: $16.9 million (representing an increase of 7%)

Box Office Results (December 19-21)

Peter Jackson’s third  and final Hobbit pic dominated the box office while not quite reaching the numbers I predicted. Its Wednesday release was a bit more front loaded than I anticipated. It took in $54.7 million for the traditional Friday to Sunday portion of the weekend – under my $67.1M estimate. However, its five day take of $89.1 million was on track with my $93.6M forecast. This is a solid start for the end of the franchise and the fact that its second weekend falls on Christmas will help it.

Night at the Museum: Secret of the Tomb showed that the franchise is seriously running out of steam as it grossed just $17.1 million out of the gate, under my $25.4M estimate. Perhaps the five year wait from the second and third entries was too long as its fans have simply grown up.

The critically reviled Annie had a ho-hum debut with $15.8 million, just under my $17.6M prediction. It should gain some audience for Christmas, but this has to be below what the beleaguered Sony expected.

Exodus: Gods and Kings, as anticipated, fell hard in weekend #2 to $8.1 million, a bit under my $9.7M prognosis. The Ridley Scott epic, which was met with critical scorn, has earned an unimpressive $38M so far.

The Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Part 1 rounded out the top five with $7.8 million (on pace with my $8M prediction). Its earned $289M at press time.

Finally, the Reese Witherspoon drama Wild debuted in sixth place with $4.1 million, not matching my $5.8M estimate. Its Oscar buzz (for Reese) could mean slow drop-offs in subsequent weekends.

And that’s all for now, folks! Have a very Merry Christmas!

Box Office Predictions: December 19-21

It’s a busy pre-Christmas box office weekend as The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies, Night at the Museum: Secret of the Tomb, and Annie all make their debuts. Additionally, the Reese Witherspoon drama Wild expands its theater count to approximately 850 screens. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each at the following links:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/12/13/the-hobbit-the-battle-of-the-five-armies-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/12/13/night-at-the-museum-secret-of-the-tomb-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/12/14/annie-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/12/15/wild-box-office-prediction/

As you can see, The Hobbit should easily rule the weekend, however its Wednesday unveiling (unlike its two predecessors) should give it the lowest three day start of the franchise.

I expect Night at the Museum to open lower than its two predecessors, while Annie should see a lackluster beginning. Opening on less than a third of its competitors, Wild should manage a respectable sixth place debut.

As for holdovers, this weekend’s champ Exodus: Gods and Kings underwhelmed out of the gate and its drubbing from critics and moviegoers (a troubling B- Cinemascore) means it should suffer a hefty fall. The Hunger Games: Mockingjay – Part 1 should round out the top five.

With that, my top six predictions for the weekend:

1. The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies

Predicted Gross: $67.1 million (Friday to Sunday), $93.6 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

2. Night at the Museum: Secret of the Tomb

Predicted Gross: $25.4 million

3. Annie

Predicted Gross: $17.6 million

4. Exodus: Gods and Kings

Predicted Gross: $9.7 million (representing a drop of 59%)

5. The Hunger Games: Mockingjay – Part 1

Predicted Gross: $8 million (representing a drop of 37%)

6. Wild

Predicted Gross: $5.8 million

Box Office Results (December 12-14)

Its #1 opening was never really in question, but as mentioned above, Ridley Scott’s Exodus: Gods and Kings disappointed with a middling $24.1 million premiere. This is much less than my projected $35.5M. Clearly the negative buzz hindered it and a steep fall (especially with Hobbit competition) seems inevitable.

The Hunger Games three-quel slipped to second with $12.6 million, a bit higher than my $11.4M prediction. It stands at $276M in four weeks and while that’s nothing to sneeze at, it will be the lowest domestic earner of the franchise to date.

Penguins of Madagascar continued its unimpressive run with $7.2 million, in line with my $6.9M estimate. Its total is at $58M.

The acclaimed Chris Rock comedy Top Five debuted fourth with $6.8 million, well under my generous $11.6M prediction. While I certainly gave it too much credit, this is a fairly solid haul for a picture than opened on less than 1000 screens.

Disney’s hit Big Hero 6 was fifth with $6 million (I predicted $5.4M). It’s grossed $185M to date.

And that’s all for now, my friends! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: December 12-14

The second week of December sees the debut of two new films as Ridley Scott’s Biblical epic Exodus: Gods and Kings and Chris Rock’s acclaimed comedy Top Five enter the marketplace. You can read my detailed prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/12/06/exodus-gods-and-kings-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/12/06/top-five-box-office-prediction/

Despite very mixed reviews, Exodus should have no problem topping the charts. Top Five is likely to post a healthy debut opening on a relatively small 975 screens and should battle for the number two spot with three week reigning champ The Hunger Games: Mockingjay – Part 1. Family holdovers Penguins of Madagascar and Big Hero 6 should round out the “top five”.

And with that – my predictions for the weekend:

1. Exodus: Gods and Kings

Predicted Gross: $35.5 million

2. Top Five

Predicted Gross: $11.6 million

3. The Hunger Games: Mockingjay – Part 1

Predicted Gross: $11.4 million (representing a drop of 47%)

4. Penguins of Madagascar

Predicted Gross: $6.9 million (representing a drop of 37%)

5. Big Hero 6

Predicted Gross: $5.4 million (representing a drop of 34%)

Box Office Results (December 5-7)

As expected, the first week of December was a quiet one before some of the holiday season’s heavy hitters drop. The Hunger Games stayed #1 in its third frame with $21.7 million, right on pace with my $21.9M estimate. The three-quel has earned $257M so far.

Penguins of Madagascar was second with $10.9 million in weekend two, below my $13.3M prediction. The animated Dreamworks tale has been a financial disappointment, earning just $49M so far. It’s unlikely to even reach $100M.

Another lackluster sequel in its 2nd weekend was third as Horrible Bosses 2 earned $8.4 million, a bit above my $7.2M projection. It’s made $35M at press time.

Big Hero 6 was fourth with $8.1 million – not matching my $10.5M estimate. The profitable Disney animated pic stands at $177M. In fifth was Interstellar with $7.7 million, in line with my $7.6M prediction. It’s total is at $158M.

Finally, the barely promoted horror flick The Pyramid opened ninth with $1.3 million. That’s not exactly impressive, but it did manage to top my estimate of $977,000.

And that’s all for now, folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: December 5-7

The first weekend of December/post Thanksgiving frame is typically a sluggish one at the box office. Studios are waiting to release their December heavy hitters while it’s just leftovers to moviegoers to munch and catch up on. 2014 should be no exception, especially following a surprisingly lackluster Turkey Day weekend.

There are no new wide releases coming out. Only the barely marketed horror pic The Pyramid opens semi-wide on approximately 550 screens and I’ll predict it doesn’t even crack a million bucks. My official prediction is $977,000 – far outside the top five.

Additionally, this weekend usually means rather large drops for holdovers after the holiday weekend. Seeing that, I predict the top five not changing at all with their grosses being quite a bit lower.

My predictions for the weekend are:

1. The Hunger Games: Mockingjay – Part 1

Predicted Gross: $21.9 million (representing a drop of 61%)

2. Penguins of Madagascar

Predicted Gross: $13.3 million (representing a drop of 47%)

3. Big Hero 6

Predicted Gross: $10.5 million (representing a drop of 44%)

4. Interstellar

Predicted Gross: $7.6 million (representing a drop of 52%)

5. Horrible Bosses 2

Predicted Gross: $7.2 million (representing a drop of 53%)

Box Office Results (Thanksgiving Weekend)

Katniss and company easily ruled the holiday weekend as Mockingjay – Part 1 took in $56.9 million over the Friday to Sunday portion, on par with my $57.9M estimate. Over the five day, it made $82.6 million, just under my $85.7M prediction. The third entry in the franchise stands at $225 million currently and while it’s doing just fine, it will be the lowest grosser of the series thus far.

Dreamworks animated Penguins of Madagascar posted an unimpressive opening with $25.4 million over the three day and $35.4 million for the five day. This is well below my $40.1M and $54.7M projections. Whether it was the direct competition from Big Hero 6 or something else, family audiences simply didn’t come out for this one on the expected level.

Its aforementioned competitor Big Hero 6 was third in weekend #4 with $18.8 million (Friday to Sunday) and $25 million (Wednesday to Sunday) – in line with my respective $17M and $24.8M estimates. The hit Disney ‘toon has amassed $167M at press time.

Christopher Nolan’s Interstellar held up nicely in its fourth weekend with $15.7 million for the weekend and $21.9 million for the five day. This is considerably better than my projections of $10.9M and $15.5M. The space saga is at $147M and should still struggle to reach $200M.

Finally, Horrible Bosses 2 performed a giant belly flop. It managed an embarrassing fifth place debut with just $15.4 million for the three day and $22.7 million for the five. This is far under my respective estimates of $28.6M and $38.3M. Perhaps audiences had their fill of badly reviewed comedy sequels with Dumb and Dumber To. The sequel couldn’t even manage to earn in five days what the original made in three out of the gate ($28M). Not good.

And that’ll do it for now, friends! Until next time…

Thanksgiving Box Office Predictions: November 26-30

The term “leftovers” has some real meaning as sequels are likely to populate the top three slots of the Thanksgiving 2014 box office. Penguins of Madagascar and Horrible Bosses 2 will both attempt to unseat The Hunger Games: Mockingjay – Part 1 for the top spot. You can read my detailed prediction posts on the two newcomers here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/11/22/penguins-of-madagascar-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/11/22/horrible-bosses-2-box-office-prediction/

As I see it, Hunger Games should manage to stay #1, despite the fact that it opened considerably below its two predecessors (more on that below). I expect a drop just over 50%, just like last year’s Catching Fire. Holdovers Big Hero 6 and Interstellar should round out the top five and experience small declines due to the holiday frame.

Since it’s a long holiday weekend, I’ll do the top five predictions for both the traditional Friday to Sunday weekend and extended Wednesday to Sunday five day:

1. The Hunger Games – Mockingjay – Part 1

Predicted Gross: $57.9 million (Fri to Sun), $85.7 million (Wed to Sun) – representing a drop of 52%

2. Penguins of Madagascar

Predicted Gross: $40.1 million (Fri to Sun), $54.7 million (Wed to Sun)

3. Horrible Bosses 2

Predicted Gross: $28.6 million (Fri to Sun), $38.3 million (Wed to Sun)

4. Big Hero 6

Predicted Gross: $17 million (Fri to Sun), $24.8 million (Wed to Sun) – representing a drop of 15%

5. Interstellar

Predicted Gross: $10.9 million (Fri to Sun), $15.5 million (Wed to Sun) – representing a drop of 30%

Box Office Results (November 21-23)

It was a fascinating opening for The Hunger Games: Mockingjay – Part 1. As expected, it managed the largest opening of 2014 with $122.6 million, easily besting the $100M that Transformers: Age of Extinction took in this summer. However, it was easily the lowest opening of the franchise by nearly $30M. This means it came in well below my generous $155.8M prediction. One must wonder if there’s some franchise fatigue here and it remains to be seen how the third entry in the series holds up in subsequent weekends.

Big Hero 6 was second with $20.1 million, a bit below my $22.4M projection. The Disney hit has taken in $135M so far and should find its way past $200M and more.

Interstellar was third with $15.3 million, just below my $16.3M estimate. The Christopher Nolan pic stands at $120M and is likely to struggle to reach $200M.

Dumb and Dumber To fell hard from the top spot with $14 million in its sophomore frame, below my $16M prediction. It’s earned $57M so far and is unlikely to reach $100M.

Gone Girl was fifth with $2.8 million, just under my $3.2M estimate. Its total is at $156M. Beyond the Lights was sixth in weekend #2 with $2.6 million, under my $3.3M projection. It’s made just $10M.

That’s all for now, folks! Enjoy your turkey and, hopefully, a movie!