Tag: The Fate of the Furious

Box Office Predictions: May 5-7

There’s only one new release hitting theaters as May opens, but it’s a massive one! Yes, summer 2017 kicks off this weekend as Disney/Marvel’s Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 debuts. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/04/25/guardians-of-the-galaxy-vol-2-box-office-prediction/

As you can see, I’m predicting the sequel to 2014’s huge blockbuster will post the 9th highest domestic opening of all time. That means it would be the second largest premiere this year behind March’s Beauty and the Beast.

I am expecting Guardians to gross more than the rest of the top ten combined and then some. All holdovers will likely lose hefty percentages of their audience as attention turns to Star Lord and Baby Groot. Much more on what those pictures did this past weekend below…

With that, my top 5 projections for our first weekend of movie summer!

1. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2

Predicted Gross: $166.4 million

2. The Fate of the Furious

Predicted Gross: $7.7 million (representing a drop of 61%)

3. How to Be a Latin Lover

Predicted Gross: $6.9 million (representing a drop of 44%)

4. The Boss Baby

Predicted Gross: $4.8 million (representing a drop of 49%)

5. Beauty and the Beast 

Predicted Gross: $4.7 million (representing a drop of 31%)

Box Office Results (April 28-30)

There was a bit more excitement than expected in this last weekend of April as some newcomers posted results that exceeded expectations… and one that did not.

As expected, The Fate of the Furious was #1 for the third weekend with $19.9 million, on pace with my $20.2M prediction. It’s made $193M thus far.

Surprise #1 was the terrific opening of How to Be a Latin Lover at $12.2 million, nearly doubling my meager $6.3M projection. Surprise #3 was the $10.3 million debut for Indian action epic Buuhabali 2: The Conclusion. How much of a shocker was that for me? Well, I never even ended up doing a prediction post for it!

The Boss Baby was fourth with $9.3 million, in range with my $8.6M forecast for a $148M total.

Surprise #3 belongs to The Circle, the techno thriller with a cast including Emma Watson, Tom Hanks, and John Boyega. The pic came in at the lowest end of expectations with just $9 million for fifth (well below my $16.3M estimate). With a deadly Cinemascore D+ Cinemascore grade, look for The Circle to close fast at multiplexes.

Beauty and the Beast was sixth with $6.8 million (I said $6.5M) to bring its gross to $480M. It now stands as the ninth highest grossing picture ever.

Finally, Sleight‘s grosses were just that as it opened in 13th with $1.7 million (I was a little higher at $2.4M).

And that does it for now, folks! Welcome to Summer 2017 at the movies…

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3WMLYWwbljg

Box Office Predictions: April 28-30

It’s the final weekend before the summer onslaught of high-profile wannabe blockbuster hits screens. Our final April weekend brings the Emma Watson/Tom Hanks thriller The Circle and rom com How to Be a Latin Lover. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/04/19/the-circle-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/04/21/how-to-be-a-latin-lover-box-office-prediction/

As I see it, The Circle should be in for a second place showing behind the third weekend of The Fate of the Furious, which should manage to stay on top before Marvel’s Guardians slays all competitors when May hits.

As for Latin Lover, it certainly has the chance to over perform and could potentially nab the #3 spot. However, my estimate has it rounding out the top five with holdovers The Boss Baby and Beauty and the Beast above it.

There is another debut this weekend and that’s Sleight, the BlumHouse Tilt horror pic. I don’t have a theater count for it yet. Right now, I’ll predict $2.4 million though I could choose to revise once more information is available.

And with that, my top 5 predictions for the weekend:

1. The Fate of the Furious

Predicted Gross: $20.2 million (representing a drop of 47%)

2. The Circle

Predicted Gross: $16.3 million

3. The Boss Baby

Predicted Gross: $8.6 million (representing a drop of 32%)

4. Beauty and the Beast

Predicted Gross: $6.5 million (representing a drop of 35%)

5. How to Be a Latin Lover

Predicted Gross: $6.3 million

Box Office Results (April 21-23)

In a weekend where six new titles rolled out wide (or semi-wide), there some surprises here and there. One item that wasn’t surprising: The Fate of the Furious easily remained #1 with $38.4 million, a bit under my $43.2M projection. The eighth pic in the franchise has taken in $163M in ten days.

The Boss Baby held in second with $12.7 million (above my $9.2M estimate) for $136M overall. Beauty and the Beast remained third with $9.6 million (above my $7.8M forecast) to bring its total to $470M. That puts it at #10 for all-time domestic earners and climbing.

Other holdovers held up better than my predictions. Going in Style was fourth with $4.9 million (I said $3.5M). It’s made $31M. Smurfs: The Lost Village was fifth at $4.8 million (I said $3.6M) and it’s earned $33M.

Yes, that means none of the newcomers cracked the top five. Disney’s nature doc Born in China was sixth with $4.7 million, in line with my $5.2M estimate. In seventh was the Katherine Heigl/Rosario Dawson thriller Unforgettable. It also made $4.7 million and that’s way below my generous $12.9M projection. I mistakenly felt a decent female audience might turn out for it. Not so.

Then there’s Gifted. I had it outside the top ten, but it expanded its theater count and posted $4.5 million for eighth. Its total is $10M.

The Promise opened in ninth with $4 million (I said $3.2M). The Christian Bale/Oscar Isaac Armenian genocide drama looks to be a big money loser for its studio.

The Lost City of Z was 10th as it expanded its theater count with $2.1 million (below my $3.7M prediction). Found footage horror flick Phoenix Forgotten opened dismally in 11th with $1.8 million, not matching my take of $3.4M.

Finally, Brie Larson action comedy Free Fire was DOA in 17th place with just $994k (I said $2.3M).

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

 

The Circle Box Office Prediction

Next weekend brings the techno thriller The Circle, based on a 2013 bestseller by Dave Eggers. The pic casts Emma Watson as an employee at a powerful Internet corporation where everything is not as it seems. There’s some other heavy hitters among the cast: Tom Hanks, John Boyega of the new Star Wars trilogy, Patton Oswalt and Bill Paxton in his final film appearance.

The source material in which it’s based has its fans. It also doesn’t hurt that Watson is fresh off the mega blockbuster Beauty and the Beast (and Hanks never hurts either). The Fate of the Furious should still manage a three-peat in this final April weekend, but I have a feeling The Circle has a better chance of over performing than underperforming.

I’ll predict a mid teens to high teens debut is likely.

The Circle opening weekend prediction: $16.3 million

For my How to Be a Latin Lover prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/04/21/how-to-be-a-latin-lover-box-office-prediction/

Box Office Predictions: April 21-23

It is one busy post Easter weekend at the box office as six films roll out in wide or semi release. They are: romantic thriller Unforgettable with Katherine Heigl and Rosario Dawson, DisneyNature production Born in China, Armenian Genocide drama The Promise with Christian Bale and Oscar Isaac, found footage horror pic Phoenix Forgotten, British action-comedy Free Fire, and period piece adventure The Lost City of Z with Charlie Hunnam and Robert Pattinson. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

Unforgettable Box Office Prediction

Born in China Box Office Prediction

Phoenix Forgotten Box Office Prediction

The Promise Box Office Prediction

Free Fire Box Office Prediction

The Lost City of Z Box Office Prediction

Before we get to the newbies, one thing seems for certain: The Fate of the Furious will easily repeat at #1 after its near $100M opening over Easter (more on that below). I foresee a drop in the mid 50s for it.

I see Unforgettable having little trouble placing highest among the debuts for a decent second place showing. Then it’s family holdovers The Boss Baby and Beauty and the Beast in third and fourth with Born in China rounding out the top five.

And here’s where it gets really interesting! I’m not expecting much out of Phoenix Forgotten or The Promise and have them opening in range with where Smurfs: The Lost Village and Going in Style should be at in their third weekends. I also believe The Lost City of Z will do fairly well on only 500 screens and actually have it in sixth. Bottom line: for the numbers 6-10, I have them separated by only half a million bucks.

Notice I didn’t mention Free Fire. That’s because I actually have it outside the top ten at $2.3M (which would probably put it 11th). That said, I’ve yet to screen a theater count for it and that could change the dynamic.

So… lots to chew on this weekend and here’s a projected top ten:

1. The Fate of the Furious

Predicted Gross: $43.2 million (representing a drop of 56%)

2. Unforgettable

Predicted Gross: $12.9 million

3. The Boss Baby

Predicted Gross: $9.2 million (representing a drop of 43%)

4. Beauty and the Beast

Predicted Gross: $7.8 million (representing a drop of 43%)

5. Born in China

Predicted Gross: $5.2 million

6. The Lost City of Z

Predicted Gross: $3.7 million

7. Smurfs: The Lost Village

Predicted Gross: $3.6 million (representing a drop of 47%)

8. Going in Style

Predicted Gross: $3.5 million (representing a drop of 45%)

9. Phoenix Forgotten

Predicted Gross: $3.4 million

10. The Promise

Predicted Gross: $3.2 million

Box Office Results (April 14-16)

The Fate of the Furious did manage to score the second highest April opening ever and the second highest debut of the franchise, though it did come in quite a bit under my expectations. Fate made $98.7 million, just topping the $97.3M achieved by Fast & Furious 6 (and well under the series pinnacle of $147.1M that Furious 7 did). While well below my $122.7 million projection, it’s still a solid opening that should leave the Fast brand in good order.

The Boss Baby dropped to second with $16 million (I said $15M) for a $116M tally with Beauty and the Beast in third at $13.7 million (I said $14.6M) for a $454M overall haul.

Smurfs: The Lost Village continued its ho-hum run in fourth with $6.7 million (I said $7.8M) in its sophomore frame for just a $24M total. Going in Style, also in weekend #2, rounded out the top five with $6.2 million (I went with $7.2M) for $23M overall.

Finally, Gifted expanded in theater count and was sixth with $3 million, under my $4.6M forecast.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: April 14-16

It’s Easter Weekend and it’s sure to be dominated by the release of The Fate of the Furious, the eighth picture in the blockbuster franchise. We also have the wide release of Gifted, a drama with Chris Evans  and Octavia Spencer that expands to 1000 screens on Friday. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on both here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/04/05/the-fate-of-the-furious-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/04/09/gifted-box-office-prediction/

My estimate for Fate would give it the second largest debut of the franchise and second biggest April bow of all time… both behind 2015’s Furious 7. 

The real battle could be for the #2 slot between hit holdovers The Boss Baby and Beauty and the Beast. I anticipate a razor thin margin between those titles.

Last weekend’s new releases Smurfs: The Lost Village (which suffered a lackluster opening) and Going in Style should round out the top five, in what could be a potentially close race itself.

As for Gifted, it had a decent roll out in limited release this past weekend and my forecast for it would put it in sixth place.

Holdovers should dominate the remainder of the top 5.

And with that, my top 6 predictions for the holiday frame:

1. The Fate of the Furious

Predicted Gross: $122.7 million

2. The Boss Baby

Predicted Gross: $15 million (representing a drop of 43%)

3. Beauty and the Beast

Predicted Gross: $14.6 million (representing a drop of 38%)

4. Smurfs: The Lost Village

Predicted Gross: $7.8 million (representing a drop of 41%)

5. Going in Style

Predicted Gross: $7.2 million (representing a drop of 40%)

6. Gifted

Predicted Gross: $4.6 million

Box Office Results (April 7-9)

The Boss Baby was tops for the second weekend in a row with $26.3 million. This is right on target with my $26.1M prognosis and the Dreamworks animated tale has made $89 million at press time.

Beauty and the Beast was second with $23.6 million, in line with my $24M estimate. The Disney smash stands at $430 million currently with $500M in its sights.

Smurfs: The Lost Village couldn’t break through with family audiences in its third place debut. The third flick in the franchise (and the first that’s totally animated) grossed just $13.2 million (I went higher with $20.4M).

The geriatric comedy Going in Style had an OK fourth place premiere with $11.9 million. I was close with $11.5M. The Morgan Freeman/Michael Caine pic will hope older crowds cause it to hold up well in subsequent weekends.

Ghost in the Shell was fifth with $7.3 million (I said $7.9M) to brings its unimpressive tally to just $31 million.

Finally, faith-based drama The Case for Christ made a decent case for itself with $3.9 million, just above my $3.4M estimate.

And that’s all for now, folks! Until next time…

Gifted Box Office Prediction

Fox Searchlight looks to offer some dramatic counter programming to The Fate of the Furious this weekend as Gifted is presented in approximately 1000 theaters. Marc Webb, known for (500) Days of Summer and the two Andrew Garfield Spider–Man pics, directs this tale of a super smart kid caught up in a custody fight. The cast includes Chris Evans, Octavia Spencer, Mckenna Grace, Lindsay Duncan, and Jenny Slate.

Gifted has received some decent reviews as it sits at 63% currently on Rotten Tomatoes. It opened in limited release this precious weekend and fared pretty well, collecting $476,000 on only 56 screens.

The pic will be showing on about 1/4 of the screens that Vin Diesel’s blockbuster will be. The best case scenario could be a premiere in the mid single digits and that’s where I have Gifted landing over Easter weekend.

Gifted opening weekend prediction: $4.7 million

For my The Fate of the Furious prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/04/05/the-fate-of-the-furious-box-office-prediction/

The Fate of the Furious Box Office Prediction

Universal Pictures’ billion dollar franchise keeps rolling along as The Fate of the Furious
parks into multiplexes on Easter Weekend. The eighth (yes, eighth) street racing action spectacle finds Straight Outta Compton director F. Gary Gray taking over behind the camera. Fate finds the majority of thespians associated with the series returning – Vin Diesel, Dwayne Johnson, Michelle Rodriguez, Tyrese Gibson, Ludacis, Jason Statham, Kurt Russell, and Nathalie Emmanuel. We also have a pair of Oscar winners joining the mix with Charlize Theron and Helen Mirren, as well as Scott Eastwood (whose dad has won some Oscars). Of course, this is the first picture (excluding 2006’s Tokyo Drift) without Paul Walker, who died during the filming of Furious 7.

When Diesel and Walker returned to the franchise in 2009’s Fast and Furious, it sparked a box office resurgence that’s never let up. That fourth entry debuted to $70 million with an overall $155M domestic haul. Follow-up Fast Five in 2011 opened to $86 million ($209M eventual tally). 2013’s Fast & Furious 6 made $97 million out of the gate and $238M eventually. And 2015’s Furious 7 easily set the high mark with a $147 million premiere and $353M overall.

The grosses of Furious 7 were likely (and sadly) expanded due to it being Walker’s last on-screen appearance. Therefore it stands to reason that Fate probably won’t reach the heights of that predecessor. That said, this looks to be a franchise that is still going strong and it would be surprising if it didn’t post the second largest bow thus far.

I’ll predict the fate of this is an opening gross in the low to mid $120M range.

The Fate of the Furious opening weekend prediction: $122.7 million

For my Gifted prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/04/09/gifted-box-office-prediction/