Blumhouse Productions is out with its latest low-budget flick that hopes to generate high dollar figures when Upgrade debuts next weekend. The sci-fi horror revenge pic comes from director Leigh Whannell, best known for his involvement in the Insidious franchise (including directing its third chapter). Logan Marshall-Green, Betty Gabriel (best known as the creepy housekeeper in Get Out), and Harrison Gilbertson are among the cast. Early reviews have been decent as it currently stands at 73% on Rotten Tomatoes.
Upgrade is slated to open on a rather low 1400 screens and that will limit its potential. I would not anticipate this coming anywhere near the massive successes that Jason Blum and his studio have achieved with titles like the aforementioned Get Out, Split, or Happy Death Day. Instead it appears destined to premiere similar to BH Tilt’s lesser offerings like The Belko Experiment, The Green Inferno, or Incarnate – none of which managed to clear $5 million for their starts.
As 2018 is nearly upon us, today begins an exploration on what and who made a lasting impression on film in 2017. And it does start with a what – in this case, a studio.
Blumhouse Productions, founded by Jason Blum, kicked off in 2009 with found footage hit ParanormalActivity. It was a massive money maker that spawned numerous sequels. From then on, Blumhouse became known for their low-budget horror flicks. This includes the Insidious, Ouija, Purge, and Sinister franchises.
Yet 2017 has marked their banner year. This started immediately in January with M. Night Shyamalan’s comeback pic Split, which debuted to $40 million and earned $138 million overall domestically. Shyamalan will be working with the studio once again with its spin-off/sequel Glass, due in 2019.
The success kept going in February with the release of Jordan Peele’s GetOut. Earning $33 million out of the gate, the acclaimed horror comedy went on to make $175 million. It’s even garnering Oscar buzz, something rare for Blumhouse (a notable exception was 2014’s Whiplash).
In the fall, HappyDeathDay premiered to $26 million and $55 million total. Not all of the studio’s offerings landed with audiences this year, including TheBelkoExperiment, BirthoftheDragon, and Sleight.
Still, there’s little doubt 2017 has offered Blumhouse its most high-profile successes. 2018 will look to replicate the wins with new Purge and Insidious editions and a reboot of the Halloween franchise.
My look back on the winners in 2017 onscreen will continue…
**Blogger’s Note (03/23): I am revising my CHiPs estimate down to $8.4 million based on lowered expectations and putrid reviews. That puts it in sixth place.
The moneymaking month of March rolls along at the box office as three new titles hit the marketplace. They are: reboot of 90s cartoon and movie series Power Rangers, Jake Gyllenhaal/Ryan Reynolds led outer space thriller Life, and CHiPs, a comedy based on the 70s/80s TV series. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on them here:
I see Rangers having the most power of the newbies and it should land in second with Life coming in third. As for CHiPs, I see it edging out Kong: Skull Island in its third weekend for the four spot.
One thing seems certain: Beauty and the Beast should continue its monstrous run and dominate the charts once again after its record-setting debut (more on that below). I have Belle and company losing a bit over half its massive premiere audience.
And with that, a top 5 predictions for the weekend:
1. Beauty and the Beast
Predicted Gross: $82.5 million (representing a drop of 52%)
2. Power Rangers
Predicted Gross: $33.8 million
3. Life
Predicted Gross: $19.1 million
4. Kong: Skull Island
Predicted Gross: $12.6 million (representing a drop of 55%)
5. Logan
Predicted Gross: $9 million (representing a drop of 49%)
6. CHiPs
Predicted Gross: $8.4 million
Box Office Results (March 17-19)
Beauty and the Beast set the all-time March opening weekend record and the sixth biggest debut of all time with $174.7 million, surpassing my $158.8M prediction. The Disney live-action rendering of their 1991 classic also scored an A Cinemascore grade and looks to dominate the box office easily next weekend before Ghost in the Shell could potentially give it a run for its money in its third frame.
Kong: Skull Island dropped to second with $27.8 million, in range with my $25.6M estimate. The ape tale has amassed $109M in ten days of release.
Logan was third in weekend #3 with $17.8 million. My guess? $17.8M! Hugh Jackman’s final appearance as Wolverine has garnered $184M thus far.
Get Out was fourth with $13.4 million (I said $14.5M) to bring its terrific tally to $133M.
The Shack rounded out the top five with $6 million (I went with $6.3M) for a $42M total.
Finally, The Belko Experiment landed in seventh place with an OK $4.1 million, slightly ahead of my $3.2M projection.
Disney’s live-action remake of Beauty and the Beast looks to dominate the box office this weekend as The Belko Experiment also debuts with what will likely be a soft opening. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on both here:
It should be a fascinating weekend to track as St. Patrick’s Day falls on a Friday and a good portion of the East Coast might be digging out of expected blizzard like conditions. Even with those potential obstacles, I’m still projecting Beast will achieve a monstrous opening that would place it 10th in all-time domestic debuts.
As for Belko, my $3.2 million projection would put it in a weak seventh place.
Regarding holdovers, Kong: Skull Island premiered above expectations (a trend in the month of March) and looks to lose in the mid-high 50s in weekend #2. Logan, Get Out, and The Shack should populate the rest of the top five.
And with that, my projections for the weekend:
1. Beauty and the Beast
Predicted Gross: $158.8 million
2. Kong: Skull Island
Predicted Gross: $25.6 million (representing a drop of 58%)
3. Logan
Predicted Gross: $17.8 million (representing a drop of 53%)
4. Get Out
Predicted Gross: $14.5 million (representing a drop of 30%)
5. The Shack
Predicted Gross: $6.3 million (representing a drop of 37%)
Box Office Results (March 10-12)
Kong: SkullIsland exceeded most prognosticators estimates with a robust $61 million, well above my $48.6M prediction. The ape tale was assisted by mostly positive reviews and look for the title character to return vs. Godzilla in three years.
Logan dropped to second in its sophomore weekend with $38.1 million, a bit shy of my $42.5M projection. The acclaimed comic book pic is up to $152M thus far.
GetOut continued its stunning grosses with $20.7 million for third place – on track with my take of $19.8M. It’s up to $110M.
TheShack held nicely in weekend #2 with $10 million (I said $10.7M) for $32M total. TheLegoBatmanMovie rounded out the top five with $7.6 million compared to my $6.8M guesstimate. The domestic total for it is $158M.
Next weekend, the horror thriller TheBelkoExperiment debuts in theaters and it will attempt to serve as counter programming to Disney’s likely box office behemoth BeautyandtheBeast. That could be an uphill battle.
Belko comes from director Greg McLean, who last helmed 2016’s underwhelming performer TheDarkness. Its screenwriter is of more note – James Gunn, who directed GuardiansoftheGalaxy and its upcoming May sequel. The pic is set in Bogota, Columbia with a group of employees pitted against one another in a violent social experiment. Stars include John Gallagher Jr., Tony Goldwyn, Adria Arjona, John C. McGinley, and Michael Rooker.
This debuted last fall at the Toronto Film Festival to so-so buzz and it currently sits at 57% on Rotten Tomatoes. The marketing campaign has been rather soft and it’s only slated to open on about 1200 screens.
Add that up and I believe Belko will debut poorly and fade quickly.
TheBelkoExperiment opening weekend prediction: $3.2 million
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