The Venice Film Festival kicks off today with Telluride and Toronto soon to follow. Danny Boyle’s Ink is the Italian fest’s opening feature. The filmmaker’s Slumdog Millionaire was the Best Picture honoree in 2008. Based on the 2017 stage play, the film recounts the founding and evolution of British tabloid The Sun from the late 1960s to the 1980s. Jack O’Connell, Claire Foy, and Guy Pearce (as Rupert Murdoch) headline the cast. Ink is slated for a limited and Oscar-qualifying theatrical engagement on December 11th before a Netflix bow on January 8th.
Sometimes a festival premiere will greatly increase or decrease a pic’s awards viability. The initial reaction to Ink pretty much puts it where I assumed it was. With 87% on Rotten Tomatoes and 81 on Metacritic, reviews are generally praising many aspects without going overboard.
I’ve had Ink just on the outside looking in for Best Picture contention. My update three days ago had it 11th. Netflix faces a choice with how hard they go in their campaign as The Black Ball will likely be their main focus. Right now my hunch that it misses the BP cut feels correct.
The buzz from Venice also indicates that O’Connell, Foy, and Pearce all deliver fine performances. However, only Pearce seems truly viable for consideration in the Supporting Actor field. The veteran performer landed his first nom two years ago for The Brutalist and was arguably runner-up for the win. He is nowhere near a shoo-in to make the final five though I suspect he’ll be in the mix in a way his costars are not.
Ink could also play in Adapted Screenplay and Film Editing. For the latter, that may apply only if it sneaks into the BP race. That is certainly a possibility, but I’m leaning the other way as the ink figuratively dries on this write-up. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
As August closes out and September dawns, film festival season is nearly upon us. Venice begins on Wednesday with Telluride playing out over Labor Day weekend. Between those two events, we are expected to get screenings and critical reaction for Martin McDonagh’s Wild Horse Nine, Jesse Eisenberg’s The Debut, Danny Boyle’s Ink, Lance Oppenheim’s Primetime, Florian Zeller’s Bunker, Mike Leigh’s Tender Loving Care, Simon Stone’s Elsinore, Andrew Haigh’s A Long Winter, and Werner Herzog’s Bucking Fastard to name a few.
September 10th brings Toronto with their own premieres including Sian Heder’s Being Heumann, Chris Rock’s Misty Green, Susanna White’s Prima Facie, Peter Farrelly’s I Play Rocky, and Bassam Tariq’s Your Mother Your Mother Your Mother.
Needless to say you can expect a bunch of Oscar Prediction posts over the next three weeks. And if history is any guide, my next update in a couple weekends should look quite different.
Away from festival buzz, there was a significant piece of news since my last update two weeks ago. It was announced that Diane Warren is behind the title track to the upcoming By Any Means starring Yayha Abdul-Mateen II and Mark Wahlberg. The songwriter has famously racked up 17 Best Original Song nominations without a win. She currently is up to nine noms in a row since 2017. It would be foolish to not include her in my five predicted tracks.
There’s not a ton of movement in the major races though it is a solid update for The Invite. Olivia Wilde’s dramedy rises to the #1 spot in Adapted Screenplay over The Black Ball with the filmmaker entering the directorial quintet for the first time. She knocks out Phil Lord and Christopher Miller (Project Hail Mary).
You can read all the movement below and expect plenty of posts in the coming days and weeks as the festivals commence!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)
4. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (E)
5. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (+1)
6. Fjord (PR: 7) (+1)
7. The Invite (PR: 8) (+1)
8. The Debut (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Obsession (PR: 9) (E)
10. Behemoth! (PR: 10) (E)
Other Possibilities:
11. Ink (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Digger (PR: 11) (-1)
13. All of a Sudden (PR: 13) (E)
14. Elsinore (PR: 16) (+2)
15. Michael (PR: 15) (E)
16. Primetime (PR: 18) (+2)
17. The Social Reckoning (PR: 14) (-3)
18. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 17) (-1)
19. Werwulf (PR: 21) (+2)
20. Being Heumann (PR: 22) (+2)
21. The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 20) (-1)
22. Josephine (PR: 25) (+3)
23. Disclosure Day (PR: 24) (+1)
24. Club Kid (PR: Not Ranked)
25. A Long Winter (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Fatherland
Artificial
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo, The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)
4. Cristian Mungiu, Fjord (PR: 4) (E)
5. Olivia Wilde, The Invite (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (E)
8. Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Digger (PR: 8) (E)
9. Tony Gilroy, Behemoth! (PR: 9) (E)
10. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Jesse Eisenberg, The Debut (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Danny Boyle, Ink (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Curry Barker, Obsession (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Lance Oppenheim, Primetime (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Robert Eggers, Werwulf (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Pawel Pawlikowski, Fatherland
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Julianne Moore, The Debut (PR: 1) (E)
2. Inde Navarrette, Obsession (PR: 2) (E)
3. Olivia Wilde, The Invite (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Renate Reinsve, Fjord (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Sandra Hüller, Rose (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Virginie Efira, Al of a Sudden (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Emily Blunt, Disclosure Day (PR: 12) (+4)
9. Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Léa Seydoux, Gentle Monster (PR: 9) (-2)
12. Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Sandra Hüller, Fatherland (PR: 10) (-3)
14. Rosalind Eleazar, Misty Green (PR: 14) (E)
15. Mason Reeves, Josephine (PR: 15) (E)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Matt Damon, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 2) (E)
3. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)
4. Andrew Scott, Elsinore (PR: 4) (E)
5. Robert Pattinson, Primetime (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tom Cruise, Digger (PR: 6) (E)
7. Pedro Pascal, Behemoth! (PR: 7) (E)
8. Sebastian Stan, Fjord (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Jaafar Jackson, Michael (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Seth Rogen, The Invite (PR: 10) (E)
11. Jack O’Connell, Ink (PR: 12) (+1)
12. John Turturro, The Only Living Pickpocket in New York (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three (PR: 14) (+1)
14. Dominic Sessa, Tony (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Javier Bardem, The Beloved (PR: 15) (E)
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Penélope Cruz, The Invite (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Mariana di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Olivia Colman, Elsinore (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Lola Dueñas, The Black Ball (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Penélope Cruz, The Black Ball (PR: 6) (E)
7. Samantha Morton, The Odyssey (PR: 7) (E)
8. Tao Okamoto, All of a Sudden (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 11) (+2)
10. Sandra Hüller, Digger (PR: 8) (-2)
11. Claire Foy, Ink (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 9) (-3)
13. Esmé Creed-Miles, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 13) (E)
14. Eva Victor, Behemoth! (PR: 14) (E)
15. Scarlett Johansson, Paper Tiger (PR: 15) (E)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Paul Giamatti, The Debut (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 2) (E)
3. Edward Norton, The Invite (PR: 3) (E)
4. Guy Pearce, Ink (PR: 4) (E)
5. John Leguizamo, The Odyssey (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. John Goodman, Digger (PR: 6) (E)
7. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 7) (E)
8. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning (PR: 8) (E)
9. Colman Domingo, Michael (PR: 9) (E)
10. Guitarradelafuente, The Black Ball (PR: 10) (E)
11. Riz Ahmed, Digger (PR: 13) (+2)
12. Channing Tatum, Josephine (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Mark Ruffalo, Being Heumann (PR: 11) (-2)
14. Robert Pattinson, The Odyssey (PR: 12) (-2)
15. Daniel Kaluuya, Misty Green (PR: 15) (E)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Debut (PR: 2) (E)
3. Obsession (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Fjord (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Elsinore (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Behemoth! (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Digger (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Club Kid (PR: 8) (E)
9. Tender Loving Care (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Drama (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Primetime (moved to Adapted Screenplay)
Artificial
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Invite (PR: 3) (+2)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 1) (-1)
3. The Odyssey (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Project Hail Mary (PR: 4) (E)
5. All of a Sudden (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ink (PR: 6) (E)
7. Primetime (PR: Not Ranked – moved from Original Screenplay)
8. Dune: Part Three (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Social Reckoning (PR: 7) (-2)
10. The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Sense and Sensibility
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Black Ball (PR: 1) (E)
2. Fjord (PR: 2) (E)
3. All of a Sudden (PR: 3) (E)
4. Minotaur (PR: 4) (E)
5. Possible Love (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Fatherland (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Rose (PR: 7) (E)
8. Coward (PR: 8) (E)
9. Mimesis (PR: 9) (E)
10. Silent Friend (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Beloved
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wildwood (PR: 1) (E)
2. Toy Story 5 (PR: 2) (E)
3. Ray Gunn (PR: 3) (E)
4. Tangles (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Iron Boy (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Forgotten Island (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Hoppers (PR: 7) (E)
8. In Waves (PR: 8) (E)
9. Shaun the Sheep: The Beast of Mossy Bottom (PR: 9) (E)
10. Hexed (PR: 10) (E)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Once Upon a Time in Harlem (PR: 1) (E)
2. American Doctor (PR: 2) (E)
3. NAZA (PR: Not Ranked)
4. 14th (PR: 3) (-1)
5. One in a Million (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. To Hold a Mountain (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Closure (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Nuisance Bear (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The History of Concrete (PR: 9) (E)
10. Rehearsals for Revolution (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
When a Witness Recants
Musk
Best Casting
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (+1)
2. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)
4. Fjord (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Michael (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Debut (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Digger (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The Invite (PR: 8) (E)
9. Elsinore (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Dune: Part Three (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Being Heumann
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Black Ball (PR: 3) (E)
4. Project Hail Mary (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Fatherland (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Digger (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Werwulf (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Disclosure Day (PR: 9) (E)
10. Behemoth! (PR: 10) (E)
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Werwulf (PR: 3) (E)
4. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 4) (E)
5. Michael (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (E)
7. I Love Boosters (PR: 9) (+2)
8. The Devil Wears Prada 2 (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Wuthering Heights (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Mother Mary (PR: 10) (E)
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Behemoth! (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Invite (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Ink (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Digger (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Fjord (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Debut
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Werwulf (PR: 1) (E)
2. Digger (PR: 2) (E)
3. Wicker (PR: 7) (+4)
4. Clayface (PR: 4) (E)
5. Rose (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Odyssey (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Michael (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Obsession (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Is God Is (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
The Black Ball
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Black Ball (PR: 6) (+3)
4. Disclosure Day (PR: 4) (E)
5. Behemoth! (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 7) (E)
8. Digger (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Social Reckoning (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Wildwood (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Ink
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “I Knew It, I Knew You” from Toy Story 5 (PR: 1) (E)
2. “La Nieve” from The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. “By Any Means” from By Any Means (PR: Not Ranked)
4. TBD from The Debut (PR: 3) (-1)
5. “How to Write a Song (Without You)” from Power Ballad (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. “When I’m Home” from The Odyssey (PR: 4) (-2)
7. “Runway” from The Devil Wears Prada 2 (PR: 6) (-1)
8. TBD from Wildwood (PR: Not Ranked)
9. “Chains of Love” from Wuthering Heights (PR: 8) (-1)
10. “Save the Day” from Hoppers (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
“La Playa” from The Black Ball
TBD from Hexed
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 2) (E)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)
4. Werwulf (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Black Ball (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Digger (PR: 6) (E)
7. Backrooms (PR: 7) (E)
8. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 8) (E)
9. Wuthering Heights (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 10) (E)
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)
4. Behemoth! (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Disclosure Day (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Black Ball (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Michael (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Digger (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Whalefall (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Werwulf (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Three (PR: 1) (E)
2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Odyssey (PR: 3) (E)
4. Whalefall (PR: 4) (E)
5. Spider-Man: Brand New Day (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Godzilla Minus Zero (PR: 6) (E)
7. Avengers: Doomsday (PR: 7) (E)
8. The End of Oak Street (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Sheep Detectives (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Disclosure Day (PR: 10) (E)
That equates to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:
14 Nominations
The Odyssey
12 Nominations
The Black Ball
9 Nominations
Project Hail Mary
8 Nominations
Wild Horse Nine
6 Nominations
Fjord, The Invite
5 Nominations
The Debut, Dune: Part Three
4 Nominations
Behemoth!
3 Nominations
Elsinore, Obsession, Werwulf
2 Nominations
All of a Sudden, Disclosure Day, Michael, Rose. Toy Story 5
1 Nomination
14th, American Doctor, By All Means, Clayface, Digger, Fatherland, Ink, Iron Boy, Minotaur, NAZA, Once Upon a Time in Harlem, One in a Million, Possible Love, Power Ballad, Primetime, Ray Gunn, Sense and Sensibility, Spider-Man: Brand New Day, Tangles, Whalefall, Wicker. Wildwood
It goes without saying that the upcoming festivals will dramatically reshape the 99th Academy Awards. That’s in addition to numerous fall titles that will premiere beyond the late summer/early autumn festival slots.
There’s also the real chance that Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey could dominate the next ceremony. It has critical and audience love and fantastic box office grosses. Even though Nolan took over the 96th Oscars with Oppenheimer, history could repeat itself. I have it ranked #1 in a whopping 10 races. The Odyssey has held that perch in Picture and Director for a while. Yet for the first time, Matt Damon moves to the pole position in Best Actor with John Leguizamo making his inaugural appearance in the Supporting Actor quintet. My nomination count for Nolan’s epic grows from 14 to 16 and that ties it with last year’s Sinners for most mentions in the Academy’s history.
Another major development in Best Actor is Robert Pattinson (Primetime) moving into the high five with Pedro Pascal (Behemoth!) dipping out. In Supporting Actress, Olivia Colman (Elsinore) is in over Sandra Hüller (Project Hail Mary). Leguizamo’s aforementioned rise in Supporting Actor drops Steve Buscemi (Wild Horse Nine).
Finally, I’m condensing the screenplay derbies from 15 possibilities to 10. You can read all the movement below and expect one final update in two weeks before the madness we call Venice, Telluride, and Toronto begins!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)
4. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Debut (PR: 5) (E)
6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Fjord (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The Invite (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Obsession (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Behemoth! (PR: 8) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
11. Digger (PR: 11) (E)
12. Ink (PR: 13) (+1)
13. All of a Sudden (PR: 12) (-1)
14. The Social Reckoning (PR: 14) (E)
15. Michael (PR: 17) (+2)
16. Elsinore (PR: 15) (-1)
17. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 16) (-1)
18. Primetime (PR: Not Ranked)
19. Fatherland (PR: 19) (E)
20. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 18) (-2)
21. Werwulf (PR: 20) (-1)
22. Being Heumann (PR: 21) (-1)
23. Artificial (PR: 24) (+1)
24. Disclosure Day (PR: 22) (-2)
25. Josephine (PR: 23) (-2)
Dropped Out:
I Play Rocky
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo, The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)
4. Cristian Mungiu, Fjord (PR: 4) (E)
5. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Olivia Wilde, The Invite (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Digger (PR: 8) (E)
9. Tony Gilroy, Behemoth! (PR: 9) (E)
10. Jesse Eisenberg, The Debut (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Curry Barker, Obsession (PR: 12) (E)
13. Danny Boyle, Ink (PR: 13) (E)
14. Pawel Pawlikowski, Fatherland (PR: 14) (E)
15. Robert Eggers, Werwulf (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Georgia Oakley, Sense and Sensibility
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Julianne Moore, The Debut (PR: 1) (E)
2. Inde Navarrette, Obsession (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Renate Reinsve, Fjord (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Olivia Wilde, The Invite (PR: 4) (E)
5. Sandra Hüller, Rose (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning (PR: 7) (E)
8. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Léa Seydoux, Gentle Monster (PR: 13) (+4)
10. Sandra Hüller, Fatherland (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Emily Blunt, Disclosure Day (PR: 9) (-3)
13. Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Rosalind Eleazar, Misty Green (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Mason Reeves, Josephine (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Sophie Okonedo, Clarissa
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Matt Damon, The Odyssey (PR: 3) (+2)
2. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Andrew Scott, Elsinore (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Robert Pattinson, Primetime (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tom Cruise, Digger (PR: 6) (E)
7. Pedro Pascal, Behemoth! (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Jaafar Jackson, Michael (PR: 8) (E)
9. Sebastian Stan, Fjord (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Seth Rogen, The Invite (PR: 10) (E)
11. John Turturro, The Only Living Pickpocket in New York (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Jack O’Connell, Ink (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Dominic Sessa, Tony (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three (PR: 11) (-3)
15. Javier Bardem, The Beloved (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Andrew Garfield, Artificial
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Mariana di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 2) (E)
3. Penélope Cruz, The Invite (PR: 3) (E)
4. Lola Dueñas, The Black Ball (PR: 4) (E)
5. Olivia Colman, Elsinore (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Penélope Cruz, The Black Ball (PR: 6) (E)
7. Samantha Morton, The Odyssey (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Sandra Hüller, Digger (PR: 11) (+3)
9. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 5) (-4)
10. Tao Okamoto, All of a Sudden (PR: 8) (-2)
11. Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 9) (-2)
12. Claire Foy, Ink (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Esmé Creed-Miles, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Eva Victor, Behemoth! (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Scarlett Johansson, Paper Tiger (PR: 15) (E)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Paul Giamatti, The Debut (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 2) (E)
3. Edward Norton, The Invite (PR: 3) (E)
4. Guy Pearce, Ink (PR: 4) (E)
5. John Leguizamo, The Odyssey (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. John Goodman, Digger (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Colman Domingo, Michael (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Guittaricadelafuente, The Black Ball (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Mark Ruffalo, Being Heumann (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Robert Pattinson, The Odyssey (PR: 9) (-3)
13. Riz Ahmed, Digger (PR: 14) (+1)
14. Channing Tatum, Josephine (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Daniel Kaluuya, Misty Green (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
James Ortiz, Project Hail Mary
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Debut (PR: 2) (E)
3. Fjord (PR: 3) (E)
4. Obsession (PR: 4) (E)
5. Behemoth! (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Digger (PR: 6) (E)
7. Elsinore (PR: 7) (E)
8. Club Kid (PR: 8) (E)
9. Primetime (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Artificial (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
The Drama
Fatherland
I Play Rocky
Josephine
Misty Green
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Black Ball (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Odyssey (PR: 3) (+1)
3. The Invite (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Project Hail Mary (PR: 4) (E)
5. All of a Sudden (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ink (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Social Reckoning (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 9) (E)
10. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 11) (+1)
Dropped Out:
Being Heumann
Prima Facie
A Long Winter
Minotaur
Wildwood
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Black Ball (PR: 1) (E)
2. Fjord (PR: 2) (E)
3. All of a Sudden (PR: 3) (E)
4. Minotaur (PR: 4) (E)
5. Fatherland (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Possible Love (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Rose (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Coward (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Mimesis (PR: 10) (+1)
10. The Beloved (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wildwood (PR: 1) (E)
2. Toy Story 5 (PR: 2) (E)
3. Ray Gunn (PR: 3) (E)
4. Forgotten Island (PR: 4) (E)
5. Tangles (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Iron Boy (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Hoppers (PR: 6) (-1)
8. In Waves (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Shaun the Sheep: The Beast of Mossy Bottom (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Hexed (PR: 10) (E)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Once Upon a Time in Harlem (PR: 1) (E)
2. American Doctor (PR: 5) (+3)
3. 14th (PR: 2) (-1)
4. One in a Million (PR: 3) (-1)
5. To Hold a Mountain (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. When a Witness Recants (PR: 10) (+4)
7. Nuisance Bear (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Rehearsals for a Revolution (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The History of Concrete (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Musk (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Closure
Everybody to Kenmure Street
Best Casting
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. White Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Debut (PR: 8) (+4)
5. Michael (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Digger (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Fjord (PR: 4) (-3)
8. The Invite (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Being Heumann (PR: 10) (E)
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Black Ball (PR: 3) (E)
4. Digger (PR: 4) (E)
5. Fatherland (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Project Hail Mary (PR: 6) (E)
7. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Werwulf (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Disclosure Day (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Behemoth! (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Ink
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Werwulf (PR: 3) (E)
4. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 4) (E)
5. Michael (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Devil Wears Prada 2 (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Wuthering Heights (PR: 8) (E)
9. I Love Boosters (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Mother Mary (PR: 10) (E)
Best Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)
4. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (E)
5. Behemoth! (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (E)
7. Digger (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Invite (PR: 8) (E)
9. Ink (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Debut (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Fjord
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Werwulf (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Digger (PR: 1) (-1)
3. The Odyssey (PR: 3) (E)
4. Clayface (PR: 4) (E)
5. Michael (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (E)
7. Wicker (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Rose (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Black Ball (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Is God Is (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
The Bride!
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)
3. Behemoth! (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Disclosure Day (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Black Ball (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 7) (E)
8. Digger (PR: 8) (E)
9. Ink (PR: 9) (E)
10. Wildwood (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Social Reckoning
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “I Knew It, I Knew You” from Toy Story 5 (PR: 1) (E)
2. “La Nieve” from The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E) – previously listed as TBD
3. TBD from The Debut (PR: 4) (+1)
4. “When I’m Home” from The Odyssey (PR: 6) (+2)
5. “How to Write a Song (Without You)” from Power Ballad (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Runway” from The Devil Wears Prada 2 (PR: 7) (+1)
7. “La Playa” from The Black Ball (PR: 3) (-4)
8. “Chains of Love” from Wuthering Heights (PR: 9) (+1)
9. TBD from Hexed (PR: Not Ranked)
10. “Save the Day” from Hoppers (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
“Shape of a Woman” from The Devil Wears Prada 2
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 2) (E)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)
4. Werwulf (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Black Ball (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Digger (PR: 6) (E)
7. Backrooms (PR: 7) (E)
8. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 8) (E)
9. Wuthering Heights (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 10) (E)
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Three (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Odyssey (PR: 2) (E)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)
4. Disclosure Day (PR: 8) (+4)
5. Michael (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Behemoth! (PR: 4) (-2)
7. The Black Ball (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Whalefall (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Werwulf (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Digger (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Three (PR: 1) (E)
2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Odyssey (PR: 3) (E)
4. Whalefall (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Spider-Man: Brand New Day (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Godzilla Minus Zero (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Avengers: Doomsday (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The Sheep Detectives (PR: 8) (E)
9. The End of Oak Street (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Disclosure Day (PR: 10) (E)
And that equates to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:
16 Nominations
The Odyssey
11 Nominations
The Black Ball
9 Nominations
Project Hail Mary
8 Nominations
Wild Horse Nine
6 Nominations
The Debut, Dune: Part Three
5 Nominations
Fjord, The Invite
4 Nominations
Behemoth!, Michael
3 Nominations
Obsession, Werwulf
2 Nominations
All of a Sudden, Digger, Disclosure Day, Elsinore, Fatherland, Toy Story 5
1 Nomination
14th, American Doctor, Clayface, Forgotten Island, Ink, Minotaur, Once Upon a Time in Harlem, One in a Million, Power Ballad, Primetime, Ray Gunn, Rose, Sense and Sensibility, Spider-Man: Brand New Day, Tangles, To Hold a Mountain, Whalefall, Wildwood
As we enter the month of August, the fall film festival trio of Venice, Telluride, and Toronto are about a month away. Those fests will dramatically reshape the Oscar race for the 99th ceremony. In the meantime, we have Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey racking up terrific box office numbers and continuing to solidify its status as an across-the-board awards player.
There are release date questions while one significant feature has moved to the 2027 calendar. Chloe Domont’s A Place in Hell with Michelle Williams and Daisy Edgar-Jones will come out next spring and that’s why you’ll see it in the dropped out menu in various races including Picture, Actress, Supporting Actress, and Original Screenplay. Tom Ford’s Cry to Heaven has yet to be dated and appears to be skipping festivals. I’ve made the decision to take it out of contention until a release is scheduled.
On the other hand, Elsinore with Andrew Scott and Olivia Colman from Simon Stone is confirmed to come out this year and it could certainly be a possibility for its stars and elsewhere.
We have a big development in Best Picture and elsewhere. Simply put, I’m skeptical about Digger. It could absolutely get back in the mix once eyeballs are on it. However, Digger drops and The Invite rises. The Digger fall also dramatically shapes the acting races with Tom Cruise plummeting from 1st to 6th in Best Actor. Maybe this will look foolish down the line, but it’s where I’m at now.
You can read all the movement below and expect the next update in two weeks!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)
4. White Horse Nine (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Debut (PR: 6) (+1)
6. Fjord (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Dune: Part Three (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Behemoth! (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Invite (PR: 12) (+3)
10. Obsession (PR: 10) (E)
Other Possibilities:
11. Digger (PR: 5) (-6)
12. All of a Sudden (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Ink (PR: 13) (E)
14. The Social Reckoning (PR: 16) (+2)
15. Elsinore (PR: 21) (+6)
16. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 17) (+1)
17. Michael (PR: 20) (+3)
18. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 19) (+1)
19. Fatherland (PR: 18) (-1)
20. Werwulf (PR: Not Ranked)
21. Being Heumann (PR: 23) (+2)
22. Disclosure Day (PR: 24) (+2)
23. Josephine (PR: 25) (+2)
24. Artificial (PR: 22) (-2)
25. I Play Rocky (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
A Place in Hell
Cry to Heaven
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo, The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)
4. Cristian Mungiu, Fjord (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (+1)
10. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden (PR: 10) (E)
11. Jesse Eisenberg, The Debut (PR: 11) (E)
12. Curry Barker, Obsession (PR: 9) (-3)
13. Danny Boyle, Ink (PR: 13) (E)
14. Pawel Pawlikowski, Fatherland (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Georgia Oakley, Sense and Sensibility (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Tom Ford, Cry to Heaven
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Julianne Moore, The Debut (PR: 1) (E)
2. Renate Reinsve, Fjord (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Inde Navarrette, Obsession (PR: 3) (E)
4. Olivia Wilde, The Invite (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Sandra Hüller, Rose (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Emily Blunt, Disclosure Day (PR: 11) (+2)
10. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann (PR: 12) (+2)
11. Sandra Hüller, Fatherland (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Léa Seydoux, Gentle Monster (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Sophie Okonedo, Clarissa (PR: 14) (E)
15. Rosalind Eleazar, Misty Green (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Michelle Williams, A Place in Hell
Mason Reeves, Josephine
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (+2)
2. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)
3. Matt Damon, The Odyssey (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Pedro Pascal, Behemoth! (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Andrew Scott, Elsinore (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tom Cruise, Digger (PR: 1) (-5)
7. Sebastian Stan, Fjord (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Jaafar Jackson, Michael (PR: 8) (E)
9. Robert Pattinson, Primetime (PR: 9) (E)
10. Seth Rogen, The Invite (PR: Not Ranked)
11. Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three (PR: 13) (+2)
12. John Turturro, The Only Living Pickpocket in New York (PR: 10) (-2)
13. Jack O’Connell, Ink (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Andrew Garfield, Artificial (PR: 11) (-3)
15. Javier Bardem, The Beloved (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Dominic Sessa, Tony
Nicholas Hoult, Cry to Heaven
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Mariana Di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Penélope Cruz, The Invite (PR: 6) (+3)
4. Lola Dueñas, The Black Ball (PR: 10) (+6)
5. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Penélope Cruz, The Black Ball (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Olivia Colman, Elsinore (PR: 12) (+5)
8. Tao Okamoto, All of a Sudden (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Samantha Morton, The Odyssey (PR: 14) (+4)
11. Sandra Hüller, Digger (PR: 4) (-7)
12. Esmé Creed-Miles, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 15) (+3)
13. Eva Victor, Behemoth! (PR: 11) (-2)
14. Claire Foy, Ink (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Scarlett Johansson, Paper Tiger (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Daisy Edgar-Jones, A Place in Hell
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Paul Giamatti, The Debut (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Edward Norton, The Invite (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Guy Pearce, Ink (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. John Leguizamo, The Odyssey (PR: 12) (+6)
7. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning (PR: 7) (E)
8. John Goodman, Digger (PR: 2) (-6)
9. Robert Pattinson, The Odyssey (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Colman Domingo, Michael (PR: 8) (-2)
11. Guitarricadelafuente, The Black Ball (PR: 11) (E)
12. Mark Ruffalo, Being Heumann (PR: 14) (+2)
13. James Ortiz, Project Hail Mary (PR: 13) (E)
14. Riz Ahmed, Digger (PR: 9) (-5)
15. Channing Tatum, Josephine (PR: 15) (E)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Debut (PR: 2) (E)
3. Fjord (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Obsession (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Behemoth! (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Digger (PR: 2) (-3)
7. Elsinore (PR: 11) (+4)
8. Club Kid (PR: 8) (E)
9. Artificial (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Primetime (PR: 9) (-1)
11. The Drama (PR: 13) (+2)
12. Fatherland (PR: 12) (E)
13 . I Play Rocky (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Josephine (PR: 14) (E)
15. Misty Green (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
A Place in Hell
The Only Living Pickpocket in New York
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Black Ball (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Invite (PR: 4) (+2)
3. The Odyssey (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (-1)
5. All of a Sudden (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ink (PR: 6) (E)
7. Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Social Reckoning (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 9) (E)
10. Being Heumann (PR: 12) (+2)
11. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 11) (E)
12. Prima Facie (PR: 14) (+2)
13. A Long Winter (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Minotaur (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Wildwood (PR: 13) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Cry to Heaven
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Black Ball (PR: 1) (E)
2. Fjord (PR: 2) (E)
3. All of a Sudden (PE: 3) (E)
4. Minotaur (PR: 4) (E)
5. Possible Love (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Fatherland (PR: 6) (E)
7. Coward (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Rose (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The Beloved (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Mimesis (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wildwood (PR: 1) (E)
2. Toy Story 5 (PR: 2) (E)
3. Ray Gunn (PR: 3) (E)
4. Forgotten Island (PR: 4) (E)
5. Tangles (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Hoppers (PR: 6) (E)
7. In Waves (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Shaun the Sheep: The Beast of Mossy Bottom (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Iron Boy (PR: 9) (E)
10. Hexed (PR: 10) (E)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Once Upon a Time in Harlem (PR: 1) (E)
2. 14th (PR: 2) (E)
3. One in a Million (PR: 3) (E)
4. To Hold a Mountain (PR: 5) (+1)
5. American Doctor (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nuisance Bear (PR: 6) (E)
7. Closure (PR: Not Ranked)
8. The History of Concrete (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Everybody to Kenmure Street (PR: Not Ranked)
10. When a Witness Recants (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Rehearsals for a Revolution
Time and Water
Best Casting
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)
4. Fjord (PR: 4) (E)
5. Michael (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Invite (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Dune: Part Three (PR: 10) (+3)
8. The Debut (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Digger (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Being Heumann (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Obsession
Best Cinemtography
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Black Ball (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Digger (PR: 4) (E)
5. Fatherland (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Werwulf (PR: 7) (E)
8. Ink (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 9) (E)
10. Behemoth! (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Cry to Heaven
Disclosure Day
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 3) (E)
4. Werwulf (PR: 4) (E)
5. Michael (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (E)
7. I Love Boosters (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Wuthering Heights (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Devil Wears Prada 2 (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Mother Mary (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Cry to Heaven
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)
4. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Behemoth! (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Digger (PR: 4) (-3)
8. The Invite (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Fjord (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Debut (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Digger (PR: 1) (E)
2. Werwulf (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Odyssey (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Clayface (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Wicker (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Michael (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Rose (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Is God Is (PR: 10) (-1)
10. The Bride! (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
The Black Ball
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Black Ball (PR: 3) (E)
4. Behemoth! (PR: 4) (E)
5. Disclosure Day (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (E)
7. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 7) (E)
8. Digger (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Ink (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Social Reckoning (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Werwulf
Wildwood
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “I Knew It, I Knew You” from Toy Story 5 (PR: 1) (E)
2. TBD from The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. “La Playa” from The Black Ball (PR: 4) (+1)
4. TBD from The Debut (PR: 3) (-1)
5. “How to Write a Song (Without You)” from Power Ballad (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. “When I’m Home” from The Odyssey (PR: Not Ranked)
7. “Runway” from The Devil Wears Prada 2 (PR: 6) (-1)
8. “Shape of a Woman” from The Devil Wears Prada 2 (PR: Not Ranked)
9. “Chains of Love” from Wuthering Heights (PR: 9) (E)
10. “Save the Day” from Hoppers (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
TBD from The Odyssey
TBD from Wildwood
TBD from The Rivals of Amziah King
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 2) (E)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)
4. Werwulf (PR: 5) (+1)
5. The Black Ball (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Digger (PR: 6) (E)
7. Backrooms (PR: 7) (E)
8. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 8) (E)
9. Wuthering Heights (PR: 10) (+1)
10. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Cry to Heaven
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Three (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Odyssey (PR: 2) (E)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)
4. Behemoth! (PR: 8) (+4)
5. Michael (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Black Ball (PR: 6) (E)
7. Whalefall (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Disclosure Day (PR: 4) (-4)
9. Digger (PR: 9) (E)
10. Werwulf (PR: 10) (E)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Three (PR: 1) (E)
2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Odyssey (PR: 3) (E)
4. Godzilla Minus Zero (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Whalefall (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Avengers: Doomsday (PR: 6) (E)
7. The End of Oak Street (PR: 8) (+1)
8. The Sheep Detectives (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Spider-Man: Brand New Day (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Disclosure Day (PR: 7) (-3)
Dropped Out:
The Mandalorian and Grogu
That equates to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:
14 Nominations
The Odyssey
13 Nominations
The Black Ball
10 Nominations
Project Hail Mary
9 Nominations
Wild Horse Nine
6 Nominations
Behemoth!, Fjord
5 Nominations
Dune: Part Three, The Invite
3 Nominations
Michael, Obsession, Werwulf
2 Nominations
All of a Sudden, Digger, Toy Story 5
1 Nomination
14th, American Doctor, Clayface, Disclosure Day, Elsinore, Fatherland, Forgotten Island, Godzilla Minus Zero, Ink, Minotaur, Once Upon a Time in Harlem, One in a Million, Possible Love, Power Ballad, Ray Gunn, Rose, Sense and Sensibility, Tangles, To Hold a Mountain, Whalefall, Wicker, Wildwood
Happy 250th birthday weekend, America! And what better way to celebrate than with fresh Oscar predictions now that we’ve surpassed the midway point of 2026. That means I’m expanding my forecasts from 8 categories (Picture, Director, the four acting derbies, the two screenplays contests) to all 21 races covering feature-length motion pictures.
This is the first glimpse at how many overall nominations I believe the hopefuls will generate. It arrives approximately two months before the fall festival season (Venice, Toronto, Telluride) kicks into gear. That trio of fests will undoubtedly alter the landscape of contenders and pretenders.
When I do my next predictions, Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey will be out. We will have a much better ide whether it deserves the perch atop Best Picture and Director and elsewhere. As soon as reviews drop, look for my individual Oscar Predictions post with the next full update likely arriving on July 19th.
I’ve put Inde Navarrette’s work in Obsession back in lead Actress as opposed to Supporting Actress. The studio could place it in either as we await word on their strategy. As of now, I feel her performance could materialize in both races. I’m also placing all performers from The Black Ball in supporting until that is clarified.
I’m keeping my BP listings at 25 and the seven top line races that I’ve previously covered at 15 possibilities. For the other competitions, I am listing 10 possibilities.
Let’s get to it, shall we?
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Digger (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (-2)
6. Fjord (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Debut (PR: 7) (E)
8. Dune: Part Three (PR: 8) (E)
9. Obsession (PR: 9) (E)
10. Cry to Heaven (PR: 10) (E)
Other Possibilities:
11. All of a Sudden (PR: 14) (+3)
12. Behemoth! (PR: 16) (+4)
13. The Social Reckoning (PR: 12) (-1)
14. A Place in Hell (PR: 11) (-3)
15. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 13) (-2)
16. Fatherland (PR: 15) (-1)
17. The Invite (PR: 17) (E)
18. Artificial (PR: Not Ranked)
19. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 19) (E)
20. Disclosure Day (PR: 20) (E)
21. Michael (PR: 24) (+3)
22. Josephine (PR: 21) (-1)
23. Being Heumann (PR: Not Ranked)
24. Jack of Spades (PR: 22) (-2)
25. Werwulf (PR: 18) (-7)
Dropped Out:
Saturn Return
Club Kid
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo, The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Digger (PR: 3) (E)
4. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (E)
5. Cristian Mungiu, Fjord (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 6) (E)
7. Curry Barker, Obsession (PR: 7) (E)
8. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Tom Ford, Cry to Heaven (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden (PR: 10) (E)
11. Jesse Eisenberg, The Debut (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Pawel Pawlikowski, Fatherland (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Tony Gilroy, Behemoth! (PR: 15) (+2)
14. Chloe Domont, A Place in Hell (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Georgia Oakley, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 14) (-1)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Michelle Williams, A Place in Hell (PR: 1) (E)
2. Julianne Moore, The Debut (PR: 2) (E)
3. Renate Reinsve, Fjord (PR: 3) (E)
4. Inde Navarrette, Obsession (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from Supporting Actress
5. Sandra Hüller, Rose (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Emily Blunt, Disclosure Day (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie (PR: 9) (E)
10. Sandra Hüller, Fatherland (PR: 8) (-2)
11. Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 7) (-4)
12. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Sophie Okonedo, Clarissa (PR: 13) (E)
14. Mason Reeves, Josephine (PR: 12) (-2)
15. Olivia Wilde, The Invite (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Penélope Cruz, Bunker
Zendaya, The Drama
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Tom Cruise, Digger (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)
3. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)
4. Sebastian Stan, Fjord (PR: 4) (E)
5. Matt Damon, The Odyssey (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Pedro Pascal, Behemoth! (PR: 7) (+1)
7. John Turturro, The Only Living Pickpocket in New York (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Jaafar Jackson, Michael (PR: 8) (E)
9. Andrew Garfield, Artificial (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Robert Pattinson, Primetime (PR: 10) (E)
11. Nicholas Hoult, Cry to Heaven (PR: 9) (-2)
12. Andrew Scott, Elsinore (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Rami Malek, The Man I Love (PR: 13) (E)
14. Dominic Sessa, Tony (PR: 11) (-3)
15. Javier Bardem, The Beloved (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Guitarricadelafuente, The Black Ball – moved to Supporting Actor
Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three
Hanns Zischler, Fatherland
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mariana Di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (E)
2. Penélope Cruz, The Black Ball (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Sandra Hüller, Digger (PR: 10) (+7)
4. Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Daisy Edgar-Jones, A Place in Hell (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Penélope Cruz, The Invite (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Tao Okamoto, All of a Sudden (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Esmé Creed-Miles, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 5) (-4)
10. Samantha Morton, The Odyssey (PR: Not Ranked)
11. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 11) (E)
12. Halle Bailey, The Debut (PR: 12) (E)
13. Lola Dueñas, The Black Ball (PR: 13) (E)
14. Scarlett Johansson, Paper Tiger (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Elizabeth Debicki, The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 14) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Inde Navarrette, Obsession (moved to lead Actress)
Gemma Chan, Josephine
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Paul Giamatti, The Debut (PR: 1) (E)
2. John Goodman, Digger (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)
4. Robert Pattinson, The Odyssey (PR: 4) (E)
5. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Riz Ahmed, Digger (PR: 6) (E)
7. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning (PR: 7) (E)
8. Edward Norton, The Invite (PR: 11) (+3)
9. Colman Domingo, Michael (PR: 13) (+4)
10. James Ortiz, Project Hail Mary (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Channing Tatum, Josephine (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Andrew Scott, A Place in Hell (PR: 8) (-4)
13. Mark Ruffalo, Being Heumann (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Guittaricadelafuente, The Black Ball (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from lead Actor
15. Jesse Plemons, Digger (PR: 10) (-5)
Dropped Out:
Milo Quifes, The Black Ball
Miguel Bernardeau, The Black Ball
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (E)
2. Digger (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Debut (PR: 3) (E)
4. Fjord (PR: 4) (E)
5. Obsession (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Behemoth! (PR: 7) (+1)
7. A Place in Hell (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Artificial (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Club Kid (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Only Living Pickpocket in New York (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Jack of Spades (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Primetime (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Fatherland (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Josephine (PR: 11) (-3)
15. The Drama (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Saturn Return
Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Black Ball (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Odyssey (PR: 2) (E)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)
4. All of a Sudden (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Invite (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Cry to Heaven (PR: 7) (+1)
7. The Social Reckoning (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Dune: Part Three (PR: 10) (+2)
9. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 9) (E)
10. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 8) (-2)
11. Being Heumann (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Prima Facie (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Wildwood (PR: 15) (+2)
14. Minotaur (PR: 13) (-1)
15. A Long Winter (PR: 14) (-1)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Black Ball
2. Fjord
3. All of a Sudden
4. Minotuar
5. Coward
Other Possibilities:
6. Fatherland
7. Possible Love
8. Mimesis
9. Rose
10. The Beloved
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wildwood
2. Toy Story 5
3. Ray Gunn
4. Tangles
5. Hoppers
Other Possibilities:
6. In Waves
7. Forgotten Island
8. Shaun the Sheep: The Beast of Mossy Bottom
9. Iron Boy
10. Minions & Monsters
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Once Upon a Time in Harlem
2. Nuisance Bear
3. To Hold a Mountain
4. The History of Concrete
5. When a Witness Recants
Other Possibilities:
6. American Doctor
7. One in a Million
8. Time and Water
9. Rehearsals for a Revolution
10. Everybody to Kenmure Street
Best Casting
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey
2. The Black Ball
3. Wild Horse Nine
4. Digger
5. Michael
Other Possibilities:
6. Fjord
7. The Debut
8. Dune: Part Three
9. Cry to Heaven
10. Behemoth!
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey
2. Project Hail Mary
3. Dune: Part Three
4. The Black Ball
5. Digger
Other Possibilities:
6. Cry to Heaven
7. Fatherland
8. Werwulf
9. Disclosure Day
10. Jack of Spades
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey
2. The Black Ball
3. Sense and Sensibility
4. Cry to Heaven
5. Dune: Part Three
Other Possibilities:
6. Werwulf
7. The Devil Wears Prada 2
8. Jack of Spades
9. Wuthering Heights
10. I Love Boosters
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey
2. The Black Ball
3. Digger
4. Project Hail Mary
5. Wild Horse Nine
Other Possibilities:
6. Dune: Part Three
7. Cry to Heaven
8. Fjord
9. Obsession
10. Behemoth!
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Digger
2. Werwulf
3. The Odyssey
4. Clayface
5. Michael
Other Possibilities:
6. The Black Ball
7. Dune: Part Three
8. Cry to Heaven
9. The Bride!
10. Madden
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey
2. The Black Ball
3. Project Hail Mary
4. Disclosure Day
5. Cry to Heaven
Other Possibilities:
6. Dune: Part Three
7. Digger
8. Wild Horse Nine
9. Wildwood
10. The Social Reckoning
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “I Knew It, I Knew You” from Toy Story 5
2. TBD from The Black Ball
3. TBD from The Debut
4. “La Playa” from The Black Ball
5. “How to Write a Song (Without You)” from Power Ballad
Other Possibilities:
6. “Runway” from The Devil Wears Prada 2
7. “Chains of Love” from Wuthering Heights
8. TBD from Hexed
9. “Save the Day” from Hoppers
10. TBD from The Rivals of Amziah King
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey
2. Project Hail Mary
3. Dune: Part Three
4. The Black Ball
5. Cry to Heaven
Other Possibilities:
6. Digger
7. Werwulf
8. Jack of Spades
9. The Adventures of Cliff Booth
10. Backrooms
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Three
2. The Odyssey
3. Project Hail Mary
4. The Black Ball
5. Michael
Other Possibilities:
6. Disclosure Day
7. Cry to Heaven
8. Digger
9. Werwulf
10. Obsession
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Three
2. Project Hail Mary
3. The Odyssey
4. Godzilla Minus Zero
5. Whalefall
Other Possibilities:
6. Avengers: Doomsday
7. Disclosure Day
8. Wildwood
9. The End of Oak Street
10. The Sheep Detectives
And that works out to my inaugural tally showing these movies generating these numbers of nominations:
14 Nominations
The Black Ball, The Odyssey
10 Nominations
Digger, White Horse Nine
9 Nominations
Project Hail Mary
6 Nominations
Dune: Part Three, Fjord
5 Nominations
The Debut
4 Nominations
Cry to Heaven
3 Nominations
Michael, Obsession
2 Nominations
All of a Sudden, A Place in Hell, Toy Story 5
1 Nomination
Clayface, Coward, Disclosure Day, Godzilla Minus Zero, The History of Concrete, Hoppers, The Invite, Minotaur, Nuisance Bear, Once Upon a Time in Harlem, Power Ballad, Ray Gunn, Rose, Sense and Sensibility, Tangles, To Hold a Mountain, Werwulf, Whalefall, When a Witness Recants. Wildwood
Daniel Roher’s 2022 documentary Navalny made waves with Oscar voters by winning the top prize for its genre. The filmmaker ventures into fictional storytelling with the crime thriller Tuner this weekend. Leo Woodall stars as a piano tuner whose skillset brings him into the world of safecracking. Costars include Havana Rose Liu, Lior Raz, Tovah Feldshuh, Jean Reno, and Dustin Hoffman. Out in limited fashion this weekend, Tuner was first screened last fall at the Telluride and Toronto fests.
With 95% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 69 Metacritic, critics are kind to the caper. This doesn’t seem like an awards contender, but an exception could be made if Black Bear Pictures mounts an effective campaign in Best Sound. It’s a major part of the plot and the Academy could reward the sonic design. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
And we are off to the races with my first Oscar predictions for the 99th Academy Awards.
We are not a month removed from the 98th ceremony so let us begin some ridiculously early speculation! These are my inaugural glimpses at the four acting derbies, Director, and Picture. They have been unfolding on the blog over the last few days. I already posted my takes for the acting races and director and they can be accessed here:
That brings us to the biggest race of all – Best Picture. When I did my first projections for BP for the 98th ceremony back in April of 2025, I correctly named 80% of the eventual contenders among the five nominated pics or in other possibilities. Hamnet, Marty Supreme, and Sentimental Value were rightly projected to make the cut. Eventual winner One Battle After Another along with Bugonia, F1, Frankenstein, and Sinners were listed in other possibilities. The Secret Agent and Train Dreams were not mentioned at that early juncture.
Let’s get some caveats out of the way… it’s early. Some movies listed are likely to be pushed back or simply not turn out to be awards contenders. Others will rise up through the festival system at Cannes, Telluride, Toronto, and Venice.
This premiere post assumes that one pic already in release has reserved a spot and that’s box office juggernaut Project Hail Mary. It could be joined by another likely mega earner in Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey. Foreign fare such as All of a Sudden, Fatherland, and Fjord (all premiering at Cannes) are also on my radar.
My initial ranked predictions in the six major races (as well as the screenplay competitions) will be posted soon. In the meantime, here’s the first glimpse at BP.
TODD’S FIRST OSCAR PREDICTIONS FOR BEST PICTURE AT THE 99TH ACADEMY AWARDS
After premiering last fall at the Telluride and Toronto Film Festivals, the latest cinematic version of Hamlet hits stateside venues this weekend. Aneil Karia helms a contemporary retelling of William Shakespeare’s tragedy with Riz Ahmed in the title role. Costars include Morfydd Clark, Joe Alwyn, Sheeba Chaddra, Art Malik, and Timothy Spall.
Critical reaction is varied with a 73% Rotten Tomatoes rating and 59 on Metacritic. A 2020 Best Actor nominee for Sound of Metal, Ahmed is getting some solid ink. However, the high likelihood is that awards chatter for this Hamnet is not to be. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
It might be Oscar weekend, but it’s also time for South by Southwest which is premiering numerous movies and TV shows. The Austin fest isn’t really a breeding ground for eventual Academy fare though 2022’s BP winner Everything Everywhere All at Once did kick off there.
SXSW is known more for showcasing odder and independent spirited movies. The Oscar bait usually saves itself for Venice, Telluride, and Toronto. Nevertheless Boots Riley’s I Love Boosters is an eagerly awaited title that served as opening selection.
This is the rapper and political activist turned filmmaker’s sophomore feature after his acclaimed 2018 debut Sorry to Bother You. The satire centers on a group of shoplifters boasts an eclectic cast including Keke Palmer, Naomi Ackie, Taylour Paige, Poppy Liu, Eiza González, LaKeith Stanfield, Will Poulter, Don Cheadle, and Demi Moore.
Early buzz indicates Riley has another critical hit with 100% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 75 Metacritic. Reviews also infer that it’s far out there similar to Bother. Perhaps Original Screenplay could be in play at the Oscars, but this might be more tailored to the Independent Spirit Awards or the Gothams (two ceremonies where Riley’s inaugural effort showed up). My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
H Is for Hawk is based on an acclaimed 2014 memoir by Helen MacDonald with Claire Foy playing the author. Philippa Lowthorne directs the drama with a supporting cast including Brendan Gleeson, Denise Gough, Sam Spruell, and Lindsay Duncan. Slated for domestic distribution by Roadside Attractions in December, Hawk has already played the Telluride and London festivals.
Rotten Tomatoes is at 82% based on the few reviews out. While write-ups for the film are more on the positive with reservations side, Foy is being lauded. The Emmy winner for The Crown likely came very close to an Academy nom in Supporting Actress for 2018’s First Man. However, Roadside is not known for attracting awards voters in their campaigns. I’ve yet to have Foy in my top 10 possibilities for lead Actress. Unless precursors surprisingly start including her, don’t expect that to change. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
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