August 14-16 Box Office Predictions

While Spider-Man: Brand New Day should face no trouble spinning a third weekend atop the charts, two dinosaur centered features will attempt to make their mark at multiplexes. We have 1980s set The End of Oak Street with Anne Hathaway and Ewan McGregor and animated three-quel PAW Patrol: The Dino Movie debuting. They premiere alongside The Brink of War from Angel Studios (recounting the Reagan/Gorbachev 1986 Icelandic summit) and you can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:

The End of Oak Street Box Office Prediction

PAW Patrol: The Dino Movie Box Office Prediction

The Brink of War Box Office Prediction

Buzz appears to picking up for Oak Street, the sci-fi adventure from acclaimed filmmaker David Robert Mitchell. While I wouldn’t discount an opening approaching $40 million, my low to mid 30s projection gives it a second place showing.

The third pic based on the Canadian kids TV series, I foresee PAW Patrol coming in a bit behind 2023 predecessor PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie. It could be in third place, but I’ve got it in fourth slightly behind the fifth outing for The Odyssey.

The Brink of War should land the five spot. The political drama may get beyond my mid single digits estimate, but I’ll play it safe.

As mentioned, Spidey is poised to make it three in a row. A percentage decline in the high 50s would mean a gross just north of $60 million and here’s how I have it all shaking out:

1. Spider-Man: Brand New Day

Predicted Gross: $60.2 million

2. The End of Oak Street

Predicted Gross $32.6 million

3. The Odyssey

Predicted Gross: $21.3 million

4. PAW Patrol: The Dino Movie

Predicted Gross: $19.1 million

5. The Brink of War

Predicted Gross: $4.5 million

Box Office Results (August 7-9)

Two new comedies struggled while Peter Parker and Odysseus continued to rule. Spider-Man: Brand New Day, after scoring the greatest domestic opening haul in box office history, had the third strongest sophomore weekend ever behind Star Wars: The Force Awakens ($149 million) and Avengers: Endgame ($147 million). The MCU saga took in $144.2 million. While that’s below my generous $153 million take, the ten-day total is a whopping $654 million.

The Odyssey held runner-up status once again with $31.7 million, on target with my $31.6 million call. The future awards player sits at $461 million after four weeks.

Rom com One Night Only starring Monica Barbaro and Callum Turner was third at the low end of expectations with $5.5 million. I thought it would nab $7.8 million.

Toy Story 5 was fourth with $4.2 million (I said $4.9 million) as the Pixar sequel brought its eight-week earnings to $470 million.

Finally, Super Troopers 3 fell way behind its 2018 predecessor in fifth. While part 2 made off with $15 million out of the gate, part 3 was good for only $4 million. I went with $7.6 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Super Troopers 3 Box Office Prediction

Nearly 25 years ago, Super Troopers from the Broken Lizard comedy troupe became a cult classic comedy. A 2018 sequel performed stronger out of the gate than anticipated and Super Trooper 3 rolls into multiplexes on August 6th. Jay Chandrasekhar returns to direct and star alongside Kevin Heffernan, Paul Soter, Steve Lemme, Erik Stolhanske, Brian Cox, Marisa Coughlan, Nat Faxon, Chace Crawford, Andrew Dismukes, and Hannah Simone.

Just over eight years ago, the first follow-up was estimated to take in under $10 million during its first outing. It managed $15.2 million before losing 75% of its audience during the sophomore frame. Part 2 ended up with $30 million domestically.

While ardent fans of Troopers should turn up, I suspect this one will earn under $10 million though this comedy team has beaten projections before.

Super Troopers 3 opening weekend prediction: $7.6 million

For my One Night Only prediction, click here:

One Night Only Box Office Prediction

Easter Sunday Box Office Prediction

Blogger’s Update (08/03): I am revising my projection downward from $8.2M to $5.6M as buzz for Easter Sunday simply hasn’t seemed to pick up since last week.

If it’s early August, it must be Easter Sunday at the box office! Not so much, but that’s the title of the upcoming comedy out August 5th. The film serves as the first major cinematic starring vehicle for Jo Koy, known for his Netflix standup specials. Jay Chandrasekhar, a member of the Broken Lizard troupe that helmed Super Troopers and its sequel, directs. Costars include Jimmy O. Yang, Tia Carrere, Brandon Wardell, Tiffany Haddish, and Lou Diamond Phillips.

Playing a struggling comedian visiting the family for the holiday, Sunday is hoping to book a diverse audience. Koy’s Filipino roots could bring in a demographic underserved at multiplexes.

Early prognoses have this getting past double digits by a slim margin. That sounds doable to me and it could even have the capacity to go higher. I could also see it falling just under that and there’s where I’m currently at.

Easter Sunday opening weekend prediction: $5.6 million

For my Bullet Train prediction, click here:

Bullet Train Box Office Prediction

Super Troopers 2 Box Office Prediction

Arriving over 16 years after its predecessor turned into a cult comedy hit, Super Troopers 2 hits theaters next weekend. Continuing to follow the exploits of a group of inept Vermont law enforcement officials, the sequel brings back the team from the Broken Lizard team. That includes Jay Chandrasekhar (who also directs), Kevin Heffernan, Steve Lemme, Paul Soter, and Erik Stolhanske. Other costars include Brian Cox, Damon Wayans Jr., Sean William Scott, Emmanuelle Chriqui, Jim Gaffigan, Rob Lowe, Paul Walter Hauser, Fred Savage, and original Wonder Woman Lynda Carter.

In February 2002, Super Troopers debuted to $6.2 million with an overall $18 million domestic gross. That doesn’t exactly warrant an immediate sequel, but the pic increased in popularity once released for home viewing. Even with its devoted following, part 2 may have trouble matching the premiere of part 1 from a decade and a half ago. 16 years is a long gap and younger moviegoers may not be familiar with the source material at all. Even some fans of the original may choose to wait until Troopers 2 is available on demand.

For meow, I’ll say this falls about a million bucks short of what the 2002 pic accomplished.

Super Troopers 2 opening weekend prediction: $5.2 million