Blogger’s Update (08/03): I am revising my projection downward from $8.2M to $5.6M as buzz for Easter Sunday simply hasn’t seemed to pick up since last week.
If it’s early August, it must be Easter Sunday at the box office! Not so much, but that’s the title of the upcoming comedy out August 5th. The film serves as the first major cinematic starring vehicle for Jo Koy, known for his Netflix standup specials. Jay Chandrasekhar, a member of the Broken Lizard troupe that helmed Super Troopers and its sequel, directs. Costars include Jimmy O. Yang, Tia Carrere, Brandon Wardell, Tiffany Haddish, and Lou Diamond Phillips.
Playing a struggling comedian visiting the family for the holiday, Sunday is hoping to book a diverse audience. Koy’s Filipino roots could bring in a demographic underserved at multiplexes.
Early prognoses have this getting past double digits by a slim margin. That sounds doable to me and it could even have the capacity to go higher. I could also see it falling just under that and there’s where I’m currently at.
Easter Sunday opening weekend prediction: $5.6 million
It’s gonna by May at the box office and there’s a trio of newcomers hitting screens: rom com remake Overboard with Eugenio Derbez and Anna Faris, critically acclaimed comedic drama Tully with Charlize Theron, and horror thriller Bad Samaritan. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:
I have none of the trio of newcomers even breaking $10 million. Overboard should lead the pack and is likely to place second. Tully could get a 4th or 5th place showing, coming in behind A Quiet Place or a bit ahead or slightly behind I Feel Pretty.My $2.1 million estimate for Bad Samaritan leaves it outside the top 5.
This weekend will once again be all about the superheroes as Avengers: Infinity War enters its sophomore frame after its record shattering debut (more on that below). So how will Iron Man, Captain America, Thor, and so many others hold up in weekend #2? 2012’s The Avengers dropped 50% in its sophomore outing with 2015’s Avengers: Age of Ultron falling 59%. I have this dropping somewhere in between. Let’s put it at 54%. That would be #2 as far as all-time second weekends (vaulting over Black Panther), but not as high as the $149 million achieved by Force Awakens (which had the benefit of its follow-up frame falling over the Christmas holiday).
**If you’d like to read my review of Infinity War (spoiler free), it can be found here:
And with that, here’s my top 5 projections for the weekend:
1. Avengers: Infinity War
Predicted Gross: $118.1 million
2. Overboard
Predicted Gross: $11.8 million
3. A Quiet Place
Predicted Gross: $7.3 million
4. IFeelPretty
Predicted Gross: $5.2 million
5. Tully
Predicted Gross: $5 million
Box Office Results (April 27-29)
Avengers: Infinity War made history at the box office this weekend. Not only did the Marvel gathering of its heroes have the biggest domestic debut of all time – it did so rather easily. War amassed $257.6 million, besting the previous high mark set by 2015’s Star Wars: The Force Awakens at $247.9 million. It blasted past my projection of $240.2 million. Will the fourth Avengers title coming in one year top this one? Time shall tell. One thing is for sure – Marvel/Disney is having an unbelievable year with this and Black Panther.
A Quiet Place took the runner-up spot with $11 million, in line with my $11.8 million prediction for $148 million overall.
I Feel Pretty stayed in third place in weekend #2 with $8.1 million (I was close with $7.6 million) for a $29 million tally.
Rampage placed fourth with $7.2 million, below my $9.1 million forecast for a total of $78 million.
I gave Super Troopers 2 too much credit and had it in the top 5 at $5.6 million. It came in lower with $3.7 million for sixth place and has made $22 million thus far.
The aforementioned Black Panther ended up rounding out the top five with $4.7 million to bring its gross to $688 million.
We are in the midst of the spring season currently, but in Hollywood it becomes summer this weekend as Avengers: Infinity War blasts into theaters. The Disney/Marvel property brings together the MCU superheroes of the past decade and looks to break numerous records. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:
As my estimate outlines, I anticipate Infinity falling just short (about $7 million) of the all-time opening record achieved by Star Wars: The Force Awakens in December of 2015. That easily gives it the #2 premiere (well above the $220 million that Star Wars: The Last Jedi made this past December).
All of the oxygen in this late April frame should be sucked up by Iron Man, Captain America, Black Panther, the Guardians of the Galaxy, Thor, and more. This means holdovers may experience some rather rough declines, including Rampage. I also have a feeling Super Troopers 2 (after an opening that exceeded all expectations) is an example of a front-loaded gross and its sophomore fall could be significant. A Quiet Place should drop to second while Amy Schumer’s I Feel Pretty may lose around half of its middling debut audience.
And with that, my top 5 projections for the weekend:
1. Avengers: Infinity War
Predicted Gross: $240.2 million
2. A Quiet Place
Predicted Gross: $11.8 million
3. Rampage
Predicted Gross: $9.1 million
4. I Feel Pretty
Predicted Gross: $7.6 million
5. Super Troopers 2
Predicted Gross: $5.6 million
Box Office Results (April 20-22)
A Quiet Place crept back up into the top spot as the acclaimed horror pic took in $20.9 million, on pace with my $21.6 million projection. Its three-week total stands at a terrific $131 million.
Rampage dropped to second and held up better than I figured in weekend #2 with $20 million compared to my $17 million forecast. The Dwayne Johnson adventure has made $65 million thus far. As mentioned, it could be in for a healthier drop this weekend considering the competition.
Amy Schumer’s I Feel Pretty debuted in third with a just OK $16 million, in line with my $16.2 million prediction. This is lower than the comedian’s previous outings, Trainwreck and Snatched.
While Pretty was a comedy that opened on the lower end of estimates, Super Troopers 2 was fourth and blew away most prognostications. The sequel to the 2002 cult hit made a strong $15.1 million, nearly tripling my $5.2 million estimate.
Truth or Dare rounded out the top five in its sophomore frame with $7.7 million. I was close at $7.9 million. The low-budget Blumhouse horror offering sits at $30 million in its first two weekends.
Due to my low ball take on Troopers, I incorrectly had Blockers fifth. It came in seventh with $6.8 million (I said $5.9 million) for $48 million overall. Ready Player One was sixth with $7.4 million and it’s up to $126 million.
Finally, the Paula Patton thriller Traffik opened in ninth with $3.9 million – a bit above my $3 million take.
It’s the calm before the Marvel storm at the box office this weekend as three new titles debut: Amy Schumer’s IFeelPretty, comedy sequel SuperTroopers2, and Paula Patton/Omar Epps thriller Traffik. You can peruse my detailed predictions on that trio here:
As we await the potentially record-breaking premiere of Avengers: InfinityWar next weekend (my estimate for it will be on the blog tomorrow), there is some excitement to ponder with this frame. There could be a three-way battle for first place as current #1 Rampage is likely to suffer a heftier drop than AQuietPlace. If Pretty beats my forecast, it could vie for the top slot as well.
My $5.2 million SuperTroopers2 prediction and $3 million projection for Traffik leave them both outside my top 5.
TruthorDare should drop to fourth with ReadyPlayerOne and Blockers battling for fifth position. I’ll note I have Player right behind Blockers in sixth with $5.8 million.
So while Captain America, Iron Man, Black Panther, the Guardians of the Galaxy and more superheroes await, here’s my take on this weekend’s high five:
1. AQuietPlace
Predicted Gross: $21.6 million
2. Rampage
Predicted Gross: $17 million
3. IFeelPretty
Predicted Gross: $16.2 million
4. TruthorDare
Predicted Gross: $7.9 million
5. Blockers
Predicted Gross: $5.9 million
BoxOfficeResults (April13–15)
Rampage took first as Dwayne Johnson’s adventure with a slew of CG creatures met expectations with $35.7 million, in line with my $36.6 million estimate. As you can see above, I expect it to lose more than half its opening audience and cede the pole position to the third frame of horror smash AQuietPlace.
Speaking of, AQuietPlace held strongly in second with $32.9 million. I was close on that projection too with $31.8 million. The acclaimed pic has amassed $100 million in just ten days.
Blumhouse continued its trend of turning low-budget fright fests into hits as TruthorDare was third with $18.6 million, just topping my $16.7 million forecast. While I look for it to drop fast, it’s already a big success considering its budget is reportedly under $5 million.
Other holdovers experienced larger declines that my projections. ReadyPlayerOne was fourth with $11.5 million compared to my $13.9 million estimate for $114 million total. Blockers was fifth with $10.7 million (I said $13.3 million) for $37 million overall.
Arriving over 16 years after its predecessor turned into a cult comedy hit, Super Troopers 2 hits theaters next weekend. Continuing to follow the exploits of a group of inept Vermont law enforcement officials, the sequel brings back the team from the Broken Lizard team. That includes Jay Chandrasekhar (who also directs), Kevin Heffernan, Steve Lemme, Paul Soter, and Erik Stolhanske. Other costars include Brian Cox, Damon Wayans Jr., Sean William Scott, Emmanuelle Chriqui, Jim Gaffigan, Rob Lowe, Paul Walter Hauser, Fred Savage, and original Wonder Woman Lynda Carter.
In February 2002, Super Troopers debuted to $6.2 million with an overall $18 million domestic gross. That doesn’t exactly warrant an immediate sequel, but the pic increased in popularity once released for home viewing. Even with its devoted following, part 2 may have trouble matching the premiere of part 1 from a decade and a half ago. 16 years is a long gap and younger moviegoers may not be familiar with the source material at all. Even some fans of the original may choose to wait until Troopers 2 is available on demand.
For meow, I’ll say this falls about a million bucks short of what the 2002 pic accomplished.
Super Troopers 2 opening weekend prediction: $5.2 million
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