I am in the process of finalizing my Oscar Predictions for the 95th Academy Awards which will be revealed Tuesday (my forecast is arriving on the blog either tomorrow or Sunday). Yet it’s already time to pontificate about the 96th since the Sundance Film Festival is underway in Park City, Utah.
Sundance is a known launching pad for documentaries that eventually contend for Academy glory. For the Doc competition in 2021, 3 of the 5 nominees were unveiled at the fest: winner Summer of Soul, Flee, and Writing with Fire.
One of the higher profile debuts is Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie, which recounts the actor’s skyrocketing career in the 80s and his Parkinson’s diagnosis. It comes from David Guggenheim. An Inconvenient Truth, his 2006 collaboration with Al Gore, was a Doc Feature recipient. 2010’s Waiting for “Superman” was a buzzy hit and 2015’s He Named Me Malala was shortlisted for Oscar but didn’t make the final quintet. Fun fact: the filmmaker is married to Elisabeth Shue, who costarred with his subject in the Back to the Future sequels. Fox, it should be noted, is scheduled to receive the Jean Hersholt Humanitarian Award at this year’s ceremony.
Apple TV has distribution rights to Still. Early reviews are quite positive and it’s likely the streamer will mount a campaign. That said, a lot of docs focused on celebs garner plenty of ink and don’t end up becoming major players on the awards circuit. It’s too early to predict the future with this one. Time will tell if it’s still viable months down the road. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Ukraine has submitted 14 pictures for consideration in the International Feature Film competition at the Oscars since 1997. None have ended up making the final five in the race. Maryna Er Gorbach’s Klondike hopes to change that dynamic.
The war drama is set in 2014 and centers on the nation’s conflict with Russia. Obviously that subject matter is more prevalent than ever. Today’s headlines could contribute to Klondike being a high profile selection to join the quintet of IFF nominees.
It’s important to note that its inclusion wouldn’t just be a nod to current events. Gorbach’s fourth overall feature debuted at Sundance where she won the prize in the World Cinema Dramatic Competition. At the Berlin Film Festival, it came in second for the audience award. The Rotten Tomatoes meter is 95%. I’ve had Klondike ranked 8th for the past couple of weeks in my possibilities, but it could rise if voters turn their focus to it a couple of months from now. Perhaps the 15th time will be the charm. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
After receiving encouraging word-of-mouth earlier this year at Sundance, Ondi Timoner’s documentary Last Flight Home lands in limited release tomorrow. Focusing on end of life issues involving her own father, Home holds an 87% Rotten Tomatoes rating. MTV Documentary Films acquired the rights in February with eyes on an awards qualifying campaign.
Timoner is a longtime vet of the genre who’s made such acclaimed titles as Dig! (2004) and We Live in Public (2009). This would be her first opportunity for Academy attention. I’ve had Flight both in and out of my top five over the past several weeks. At the moment, I have it in 8th place and we’ll see how it rises or falls in subsequent frames. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
After winning the Grand Jury Prize in the World Cinema Documentary competition at Sundance, All That Breathes has been winding its way through the fest circuit including Cannes and New York. The environmental doc from Shaunak Sen holds a 100% Rotten Tomatoes rating. It’s slated for an eventual HBO Max streaming bow after a limited and awards qualifying theatrical run before year’s end.
As I’ve opined about many times on this blog, predicting Documentary Feature is often the trickiest category to nail down. Breathes certainly has the prerequisites to make the quintet, but that often doesn’t matter. Bottom line: this is certainly one that should be in the conversation. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Documentary filmmaker Margaret Brown explores her Alabama roots through the tracking of a slave ship in Descendant, which arrives in theaters in limited fashion and streams on Netflix October 21st. This is the latest venture from Higher Ground Productions, founded by former President and First Lady Barack and Michelle Obama.
The company’s critical and awards history has been impressive. In 2019, American Factory won Best Documentary Feature. A year later, Crip Camp made the final five for consideration. Descendant, following its Sundance unveiling back in January, is garnering acclaim. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 100%.
I’ve had Descendant listed in either 2nd or 3rd place in my projections for the Doc derby. I expect it to get in and it could win. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Two awards seasons ago, Florian Zeller’s The Father premiered at Sundance all the way back at a time known as January 2020. For over a year (and with the Oscars delayed due to COVID), the performance of Anthony Hopkins stayed in the minds of voters and he scored an upset Best Actor victory over the late Chadwick Boseman (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom). The pic nabbed five other nominations including a win for its Adapted Screenplay.
Zeller’s follow-up is The Son and prognosticators including me anointed Hugh Jackman as the Best Actor frontrunner sight unseen. That dynamic has changed as it’s screened at Venice before moving to Toronto (the actual release is November 11th). The supporting cast includes Laura Dern, Vanessa Kirby, Zen McGrath, and Hopkins.
Unlike The Father where reviews were basically all laudatory, the Italian buzz for The Son is wildly mixed. Some are calling it an emotional gut punch and highly effective. Others are claiming it’s a big failure. If there seems to be agreement on one item, it’s the potency of Jackman. He still seems likely to make the Actor cut for his second nod after 2012’s Les Miserables. Yet I’m feeling more confident that I made the right call by placing Brendan Fraser (The Whale) in 1st place on Monday’s update and sliding Jackman to second.
Beyond its star, any other nominations for The Son appears questionable at press time. Perhaps Toronto reaction will help flesh it out – for better or worse. From the initial reaction, I’d say Kirby and McGrath could be possible in the supporting fields. Hopkins is said to have a smaller role and Dern’s character reportedly has less to work with than Kirby. It could find its way into Adapted Screenplay, but a win seems like a reach already.
Bottom line: Jackman should be safe though nothing else is with this one. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Nikyatu Jusu’s directorial debut Nanny first drew viewers earlier this year at Sundance and will be screened in Toronto next week. Anna Diop stars as a Senegalese caretaker working for an affluent NYC family. Their arrangement appears, judging from the trailer, to morph into arthouse horror territory. Costars include Michelle Monaghan, Sinqua Walls, and Morgan Spector.
After its festival run, Nanny is slated for a limited November 23rd theatrical run before its streaming rollout on December 16th via Amazon Prime. Reviews are continuing to pop up as it plays other fests throughout the country and the Rotten Tomatoes score is 90%. It won the US Dramatic Grand Jury Prize at Sundance. The last two winners of that award were the Best Picture nominated Minari in 2020 and last year’s CODA which, of course, took home the Academy’s biggest prize. I would also note that the five winners before that came nowhere near a BP nod.
Diop is receiving raves along with appreciation for Jusu’s original screenplay. Nanny would really need some high profile love from critics groups before I’d consider entering this into Academy chatter. It isn’t outside the realm of possibility, but I wouldn’t count on it. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
As the wealthy First Lady and Pastor of a Southern Baptist megachurch, Regina Hall and Sterling K. Brown headline the satire Honk for Jesus. Save Your Soul. After originally premiering at Sundance in January, it’s out in approximately 1800 theaters and streaming on Peacock for Labor Day weekend. Adamma Ebo directs and costars include Austin Crute and Nicole Beharie.
The Focus Features title received mostly positive spins on the festival circuit and the Rotten Tomatoes score stands at 88%. Honk will hope for a solid African-American turnout, but this could have challenges finding parishioners. The most obvious is that the early September holiday weekend is one where moviegoers are often distracted with end of summer activities. I also haven’t seen much of a marketing campaign.
With Jordan Peele serving as executive producer, the answer to whether this gets to even $3 million could be nope.
Honk for Jesus. Save Your Soul. opening weekend prediction: $2.4 million (Friday to Monday prediction)
For my Spider-Man: No Way Home – The More Fun Stuff prediction, click here:
Emily the Criminal played Sundance back in January and it’s out in limited fashion on August 12th. The directorial debut of John Patton Ford, the crime drama seems to be a showcase for Aubrey Plaza’s title character. Critics have taken notice in their praise of her work. The film itself stands at 93% on Rotten Tomatoes. Costars include Theo Rossi, Megalyn Echikunwoke, and Gina Gershon.
Joining a list that includes Ingrid Goes West, The Little Hours, and Black Bear, none of Plaza’s acclaimed indies have managed to seriously break her into the awards conversation. It’s highly doubtful this one does the trick either, but one suspects a high profile role will come along soon that might do so. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
As July comes to a close, Oscar prognosticators received several bits of fascinating news this past week. The first was the lineup of the Venice Film Festival as well as the bulk of titles that will play in Toronto. That wild season (which also includes Telluride) is a mere month away. We will see a huge number of awards hopefuls being screened with long awaited buzz finally becoming clear.
Yet the biggest news is the (as yet unconfirmed) rumor that Martin Scorsese’s Killers of the Flower Moon will not come out until 2023. Variety and Deadline essentially reported it as fact. I struggled all day with whether to include Killers in my updated predictions (I faced the same choices a couple of weeks ago with Rustin). My final decision was to drop it. If Killers ends up back on the 2022 calendar, Variety and Deadline have some explaining to do…
Another development is that Ron Howard’s Thirteen Lives was released. While reviews were certainly decent, I don’t think they’re strong enough that it will be a true BP contender. It’s at #25 on my list.
The Killers announcement obviously means major changes in most of my lineups. Cannes fest winner Triangle of Sadness replaces it in my 10 BP picks while Sarah Polley (Women Talking) is in for Scorsese in Director. Adam Driver in the Venice opener White Noise replaces Leonardo DiCaprio in Actor. Hong Chau (The Whale) is now in Supporting Actress with Lily Gladstone out. And with Jesse Plemons dropping in Supporting Actor, that leaves room for Triangle‘s Woody Harrelson. Finally, She Said rises in Adapted Screenplay.
That’s not all, folks! There’s a new #1 in Best Picture! I’ve had Damien Chazelle’s Babylon ranked #1 from the beginning… until now. In order to find a BP winner that didn’t play at either Venice or Telluride or Toronto or Sundance or Cannes, you have to go all the way back to (ironically) Martin Scorsese’s The Departed. That was 16 years ago. Babylon could still sneak into Telluride. Yet I’m skeptical it will. This factoid alone is enough for me to vault Steven Spielberg’s The Fabelmans (premiering at Toronto) to the top spot.
I’m not finished yet with the #1 changes. The Son is now first in Adapted Screenplay since Killers has moved. And Ke Huy Quan rises to the pole position in Supporting Actor over Paul Dano from The Fabelmans.
Another alteration – Empire of Light falls out of Original Screenplay with The Banshees of Inisherin in as my likely lone screenplay nominee.
That’s a lot of movement in one week and you can peruse it all below!
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