2023: The Year of the Video Game Movie

The trash heap of movie history is littered with a significant share of video game adaptations. It’s a genre devoid of well-regarded titles as evidenced by Double Dragon, Street Fighter, Wing Commander, Doom, and Max Payne, to name a few. That list also includes 1993’s Super Mario Bros., which tanked at the box office and drew the ire of critics.

30 years later, the tide seems to have shifted and that’s why the Video Game Movie is my second entry for trends and performers that popped in 2023. If you missed my first post on the phenomenon that was Barbenheimer, you can find it here:

Mario and Luigi returned to multiplexes this year. This time around, it was in the form of Illumination animating the Nintendo legends. The results? The second biggest worldwide hit of the year behind Barbie ($1.3 billion across the globe and $574 million stateside). That easily makes it the largest grossing video game adaptation of all time and opens the door for projects to follow. You can count on sequels and spin-offs to this and The Legend of Zelda is already in development.

The successes didn’t stop with the heroic plumbers. Five Nights at Freddy’s, based on the game series with demonic bears in a Chuck E. Cheese type setting, wasn’t a hit with reviewers. It did bring out its fan base and then some to the tune of $137 million domestically with another $156 million elsewhere. Like Mario, a follow-up is in the pipeline.

HBO’s The Last of Us was one of TV’s significant successes of ’23 and the post-apocalyptic PlayStation adaptation has the Globe and Emmy nods (and a greenlit second season) to show for it.

Not every version of a cartridge title was a smash. Gran Turismo only managed to rev up $44 million in North America. However, Mario, Freddy’s, and The Last of Us made 2023 the most notable frame for VG product yet in the box office game. My Year Of posts will continue…

Sonic the Hedgehog Box Office Prediction

Blogger’s Note (02/12): My estimate has gone up significantly from $38.7 million to $51.8 million

Based on the Sega video game franchise that dates back nearly three decades, Sonic the Hedgehog premieres over the four-day Presidents Day frame next weekend. From first time director Jeff Fowler, the reported $95 million adventure comedy stars James Marsden, Jim Carrey, Tika Sumpter, and Ben Schwartz doing the motion capture work as the title character.

Movies based on video games have had a checkered box office history. This is a genre littered with disappointments from Super Mario Bros. to Double Dragon to Street Fighter to Assassin’s Creed. On the other hand, last summer’s Pokemon entry Detective Pikachu set a best ever opening for such pics with $54 million.

Sonic is certainly a known entity and family audiences could gravitate towards it now that Jumanji: The Next Level and (to a lesser extent) Dolittle are winding down. This is not expected to reach Pikachu levels, but a Friday to Monday haul in the high 30s to low 40s range is anticipated and likely.

Sonic the Hedgehog opening weekend prediction: $51.8 million (Friday to Monday estimate)

For my Fantasy Island prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2020/02/06/fantasy-island-box-office-prediction/

For my The Photograph prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2020/02/08/the-photograph-box-office-prediction/

For my Downhill prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2020/02/09/downhill-box-office-prediction/