Tag: Straight Outta Compton

Todd’s Weekly Oscar Predictions: December 18th Edition

We arrive at my weekly Oscar predictions and a new wrinkle has been added. I’m predicting every category with the exception of Foreign and Documentary (those will eventually be added).

As with last week, I’ll ranking according to my feelings on likelihood of the films and performers being nominated and let you know what’s changed since last week. The pluses and minuses and no changes indicated their ranking from last week to this week.

Let’s get to it!

Best Picture

  1. Spotlight (No Change)
  2. The Revenant (No Change)
  3. Room (No Change)
  4. Brooklyn (+3)
  5. Carol (-1)
  6. The Martian (No Change)
  7. Mad Max: Fury Road (-2)
  8. Bridge of Spies (No Change)
  9. The Big Short (+2)

Other Possibilities:

10. Inside Out (No Change)

11. The Hateful Eight (-2)

12. Star Wars: The Force Awakens (+11)

13. Trumbo (+6)

14. Son of Saul (+3)

15. The Danish Girl (+1)

16. Sicario (+5)

17. Beasts of No Nation (-3)

18. Steve Jobs (-5)

19. Straight Outta Compton (-4)

20. Creed (-8)

21. Joy (-2)

22. Love and Mercy (-1)

23. Anomalisa (-6)

What’s Changed Since Last Week – IN: The Big Short. OUT: The Hateful Eight.

Best Director

  1. Tom McCarthy, Spotlight (No Change)
  2. Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, The Revenant (No Change)
  3. George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road (No Change)
  4. Ridley Scott, The Martian (No Change)
  5. Todd Haynes, Carol (No Change)

Other Possibilities:

6. Steven Spielberg, Bridge of Spies (+1)

7. Lenny Abrahamson, Room (-1)

8. J.J. Abrams, Star Wars: The Force Awakens (+9)

9. John Crowley, Brooklyn (No Change)

10. Quentin Tarantino, The Hateful Eight (-2)

11. Adam McKay, The Big Short (+1)

12. Laszlo Nemes, Son of Saul (+1)

13. Jay Roach, Trumbo (Previously Not Ranked)

14. Tom Hooper, The Danish Girl (+2)

15. Danny Boyle, Steve Jobs (-1)

16. Cary Fukunaga, Beasts of No Nation (-5)

17. Ryan Coogler, Creed (-7)

DROPPED OUT: David O. Russell, Joy

What’s Changed Since Last Week: NO CHANGES

Best Actor

  1. Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant (No Change)
  2. Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs (+1)
  3. Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl (-1)
  4. Bryan Cranston, Trumbo (+1)
  5. Johnny Depp, Black Mass (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Matt Damon, The Martian (No Change)

7. Will Smith, Concussion (No Change)

8. Michael Caine, Youth (+3)

9. Ian McKellen, Mr. Holmes (No Change)

10. Tom Hanks, Bridge of Spies (No Change)

11. Geza Rohrig, Son of Saul (+2)

12. Steve Carell, The Big Short (No Change)

13. Michael B. Jordan, Creed (-5)

What’s Changed Since Last Week: No Changes

Best Actress

  1. Brie Larson, Room (No Change)
  2. Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn (No Change)
  3. Cate Blanchett, Carol (No Change)
  4. Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years (No Change)
  5. Jennifer Lawrence, Joy (No Change)

Other Possibilities:

6. Charlize Theron, Mad Max: Fury Road (+1)

7. Helen Mirren, Woman in Gold (+2)

8. Blythe Danner, I’ll See You in My Dreams (-2)

9. Sarah Silverman, I Smile Back (-1)

10. Maggie Smith, The Lady in the Van (No Change)

11. Carey Mulligan, Suffragette (+1)

12. Lily Tomlin, Grandma (-1)

What’s Changed Since Last Week: No Changes

Best Supporting Actor

  1. Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies (No Change)
  2. Michael Keaton, Spotlight (+1)
  3. Paul Dano, Love and Mercy (+1)
  4. Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation (+1)
  5. Sylvester Stallone, Creed (-3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Michael Shannon, 99 Homes (+4)

7. Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight (-1)

8. Tom Hardy, The Revenant (No Change)

9. Christian Bale, The Big Short (-2)

10. Jacob Tremblay, Room (+1)

11. Benicio del Toro, Sicario (-2)

What’s Changed Since Last Week: No Changes

Best Supporting Actress

  1. Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl (No Change)
  2. Rooney Mara, Carol (No Change)
  3. Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight (No Change)
  4. Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs (No Change)
  5. Helen Mirren, Trumbo (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Rachel McAdams, Spotlight (+4)

7. Jane Fonda, Youth (-2)

8. Kristen Stewart, Clouds of Sils Maria (-2)

9. Elizabeth Banks, Love and Mercy (No Change)

10. Joan Allen, Room (-2)

DROPPED OUT: Alicia Vikander, Ex Machina

What’s Changed Since Last Week – IN: Helen Mirren, OUT: Jane Fonda.

Best Original Screenplay 

  1. Spotlight (No Change)
  2. Inside Out (+1)
  3. The Hateful Eight (-1)
  4. Bridge of Spies (No Change)
  5. Love and Mercy (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Son of Saul (-1)

7. Mad Max: Fury Road (Previously Not Ranked)

8. 99 Homes (No Change)

9. Sicario (+1)

10. Ex Machina (+1)

11. Straight Outta Compton (-4)

12. Youth (Previously Not Ranked)

13. Joy (-4)

14. Trainwreck (-2)

What’s Changed Since Last Week – IN: Love and Mercy. OUT: Son of Saul.

Best Adapted Screenplay

  1. Room (+2)
  2. Brooklyn (+2)
  3. Carol (-2)
  4. The Big Short (+1)
  5. Steve Jobs (-3)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Martian (+1)

7. Trumbo (+3)

8. The Revenant (-2)

9. Beasts of No Nation (No Change)

10. Anomalisa (-2)

11. The Danish Girl (+1)

DROPPED OUT: Creed

What’s Changed Since Last Week: No Changes

Best Animated Feature (First Time Predictions)

  1. Inside Out
  2. Anomalisa
  3. Kahlil Gobran’s The Prophet
  4. Shaun the Sheep Movie
  5. The Good Dinosaur

Other Possibilities:

6. The Peanuts Movie

7. When Marnie Was There

8. Home

Best Cinematography (First Time Predictions)

  1. The Hateful Eight
  2. The Revenant
  3. Mad Max: Fury Road
  4. The Martian
  5. Sicario

Other Possibilities:

6. Carol

7. Bridge of Spies

8. The Danish Girl

Best Production Design (First Time Predictions)

  1. Carol
  2. The Danish Girl
  3. Mad Max: Fury Road
  4. Cinderella
  5. Bridge of Spies

Other Possibilities:

6. The Revenant

7. Brooklyn

8. The Martian

9. The Hateful Eight

10. Star Wars: The Force Awakens

11. MacBeth

Best Editing (First Time Predictions)

  1. Spotlight
  2. Mad Max: Fury Road
  3. The Revenant
  4. The Big Short
  5. Steve Jobs

Other Possibilities:

6. The Hateful Eight

7. The Martian

8. Bridge of Spies

9. Room

Best Costume Design (First Time Predictions)

  1. Carol
  2. Cinderella
  3. Brooklyn
  4. The Danish Girl
  5. Far from the Madding Crowd

Other Possibilities:

6. Mad Max: Fury Road

7. Suffragette

8. Trumbo

9. The Hateful Eight

10. MacBeth

Best Makeup and Hairstyling (First Time Predictions)

  1. The Danish Girl
  2. Carol
  3. Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Other Possibilities:

4. Mad Max: Fury Road

5. Black Mass

6. Pan

7. The Hateful Eight

8. The Revenant

Best Visual Effects (First Time Predictions)

  1. Mad Max: Fury Road
  2. The Martian
  3. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
  4. Jurassic World
  5. The Walk

Other Possibilities:

6. The Revenant

7. In the Heart of the Sea

8. Ex Machina

Best Sound Mixing (First Time Predictions)

  1. Mad Max: Fury Road
  2. The Martian
  3. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
  4. The Revenant
  5. Sicario

Other Possibilities:

6. Jurassic World

7. The Hateful Eight

8. In the Heart of the Sea

Best Sound Editing (First Time Predictions)

  1. Mad Max: Fury Road
  2. The Revenant
  3. The Martian
  4. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
  5. In the Heart of the Sea

Other Possibilities:

6. Sicario

7. The Hateful Eight

8. Jurassic World

Best Original Score (First Time Predictions)

  1. The Hateful Eight
  2. Carol
  3. Spotlight
  4. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
  5. The Danish Girl

Other Possibilities:

6. The Revenant

7. Bridge of Spies

8. Sicario

9. Brooklyn

10. Mad Max: Fury Road

11. Southpaw

Best Original Song (First Time Predictions)

  1. “Til It Happens To You” from The Hunting Ground
  2. “See You Again” from Furious 7
  3. “Love Me Like You Do” from Fifty Shades of Grey
  4. “Writing’s on the Wall” from Spectre
  5. “Earned It” from Fifty Shades of Grey

Other Possibilities:

6. “Simple Song #3” from Youth

7. “One Kind of Love” from Love and Mercy

8. “So Long” from Concussion

Whew! Those predictions reflect a current belief of the following films garnering nominations with number included:

9 Nominations

Carol

8 Nominations

Mad Max: Fury Road

7 Nominations

The Revenant

6 Nominations

The Danish Girl, The Martian, Spotlight

5 Nominations

Star Wars: The Force Awakens

4 Nominations

Bridge of Spies, Brooklyn, The Hateful Eight, Steve Jobs

3 Nominations

The Big Short, Room

2 Nominations

Cinderella, Fifty Shades of Grey, Inside Out, Love and Mercy, Sicario, Trumbo

1 Nomination

Anomalisa, Beasts of No Nation, Black Mass, Creed, Far from the Madding Crowd, 45 Years, Furious 7, The Good Dinosaur, The Hunting Ground, In the Heat of the Sea, Joy, Jurassic World, Kahlil Gabron’s The Prophet, Shaun the Sheep Movie, Spectre, The Walk

 

Todd’s Weekly Oscar Predictions: December 11 Edition

And now we’ve arrived at my weekly Oscar predictions for the eight biggest categories and yes, things have changed in one week. Most notably, many critics precursor awards have been announced and just in the last 48 hours, nominations for the SAG and Golden Globe awards have been revealed. The past week’s activity has given a huge boost to Mad Max: Fury Road‘s inclusion into the Best Picture race and I’m including it for the first time. Other pics that have received some momentum: Carol, Trumbo (in acting races), and possibly The Big Short.

For the first time, I’m ceasing to list my predicted nominees and other possibilities alphabetically. We are now switching to where I’m listing according to my thoughts on their probability of being nominated.

And here we go, my friends:

Best Picture

  1. Spotlight
  2. The Revenant
  3. Room
  4. Carol
  5. Mad Max: Fury Road
  6. The Martian
  7. Brooklyn
  8. Bridge of Spies
  9. The Hateful Eight

Other Possibilities:

10. Inside Out

11. The Big Short

12. Creed

13. Steve Jobs

14. Beasts of No Nation

15. Straight Outta Compton

16. The Danish Girl

17. Son of Saul

18. Anomalisa

19. Trumbo

20. Joy

21. Sicario

22. Love and Mercy

23. Star Wars: The Force Awakens

What’s Changed Since Last Week – In: Mad Max: Fury Road, Out: Inside Out

Best Director

  1. Tom McCarthy, Spotlight
  2. Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, The Revenant
  3. George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road
  4. Ridley Scott, The Martian
  5. Todd Haynes, Carol

Other Possibilities:

6. Lenny Abrahamson, Room

7. Steven Spielberg, Bridge of Spies

8. Quentin Tarantino, The Hateful Eight

9. John Crowley, Brooklyn

10. Ryan Coogler, Creed

11. Cary Fukanaga, Beasts of No Nation

12. Adam McKay, The Big Short

13. Laszlo Nemes, Son of Saul

14. Danny Boyle, Steve Jobs

15. David O. Russell, Joy

16. Tom Hooper, The Danish Girl

17. J.J. Abrams, Star Wars: The Force Awakens

What’s Changed Since Last Week – In: Todd Haynes. Out: Lenny Abrahamson

Best Actor

  1. Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
  2. Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl
  3. Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
  4. Johnny Depp, Black Mass
  5. Bryan Cranston, Trumbo

Other Possibilities:

6. Matt Damon, The Martian

7. Will Smith, Concussion

8. Michael B. Jordan, Creed

9. Ian McKellen, Mr. Holmes

10. Tom Hanks, Bridge of Spies

11. Michael Caine, Youth

12. Steve Carell, The Big Short

13. Geza Rohrig, Son of Saul

What’s Changed Since Last Week – In: Bryan Cranston. Out: Matt Damon

Best Actress

  1. Brie Larson, Room
  2. Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn
  3. Cate Blanchett, Carol
  4. Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years
  5. Jennifer Lawrence, Joy

Other Possibilities:

6. Blythe Danner, I’ll See You in My Dreams

7. Charlize Theron, Mad Max: Fury Road

8. Sarah Silverman, I Smile Back

9. Helen Mirren, Woman in Gold

10. Maggie Smith, The Lady in the Van

11. Lily Tomlin, Grandma

12. Carey Mulligan, Suffragette

What’s Changed Since Last Week – NO CHANGES

Best Supporting Actor

  1. Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
  2. Sylvester Stallone, Creed
  3. Michael Keaton, Spotlight
  4. Paul Dano, Love and Mercy
  5. Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation

Other Possibilities:

6. Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight

7. Christian Bale, The Big Short

8. Tom Hardy, The Revenant

9. Benicio del Toro, Sicario

10. Michael Shannon, 99 Homes

11. Jacob Tremblay, Room

What’s Changed Since Last Week – In: Paul Dano and Idris Elba. Out: Tom Hardy and Mark Ruffalo

Best Supporting Actress

  1. Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
  2. Rooney Mara, Carol
  3. Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
  4. Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs
  5. Jane Fonda, Youth

Other Possibilities:

6. Kristen Stewart, Clouds of Sils Maria

7. Helen Mirren, Trumbo

8. Joan Allen, Room

9. Elizabeth Banks, Love and Mercy

10. Rachel McAdams, Spotlight

11. Alicia Vikander, Ex Machina

What’s Changed Since Last Week: NO CHANGES

Best Original Screenplay

  1. Spotlight
  2. The Hateful Eight
  3. Inside Out
  4. Bridge of Spies
  5. Son of Saul

Other Possibilities:

6. Love and Mercy

7. Straight Outta Compton

8. 99 Homes

9. Joy

10. Sicario

11. Ex Machina

12. Trainwreck

What’s Changed Since Last Week – IN: Son of Saul. Out: Love and Mercy

Best Adapted Screenplay

  1. Carol
  2. Steve Jobs
  3. Room
  4. Brooklyn
  5. The Big Short

Other Possibilities:

6. The Revenant

7. The Martian

8. Anomalisa

9. Beasts of No Nation

10. Trumbo

11. Creed

12. The Danish Girl

What’s Changed Since Last Week – In: The Big Short. Out: Anomalisa. 

And that’ll do it for this week’s predictions! Stay tuned for next Friday’s picks…

Todd’s Weekly Oscar Predictions: December 4 Edition

We are a bit over a month away from Oscar nominations coming out (January 14th) and it’s time to ramp up my predictions for what and whom will be nominated in the eight top races. I’m adding the two Screenplay categories (Original and Adapted) for the first time and the plan is to make weekly Oscar predictions each weekend until nominations come out. With each race, I’ll inform you what’s changed since the previous predictions post.

And with that, let’s get to predicting, shall we?

Best Picture

Bridge of Spies

Brooklyn

Carol

The Hateful Eight

Inside Out

The Martian

The Revenant

Room

Spotlight

Other Possibilities:

Beasts of No Nation

The Big Short

Creed

The Danish Girl

Joy

Mad Max: Fury Road

Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Steve Jobs

Straight Outta Compton

Changes Since Last Predictions: Bridge of Spies, Inside Out (IN), Joy, Steve Jobs (OUT)

Best Director

Lenny Abrahamson, Room

Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, The Revenant

Tom McCarthy, Spotlight

George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road

Ridley Scott, The Martian

Other Possibilities:

Danny Boyle, Steve Jobs

Ryan Coogler, Creed

John Crowley, Brooklyn

Cary Fukanaga, Beasts of No Nation

Todd Haynes, Carol

Tom Hooper, The Danish Girl

David O. Russell, Joy

Steven Spielberg, Bridge of Spies

Quentin Tarantino, The Hateful Eight

Changes Since Last Predictions: George Miller (IN), David O. Russell (OUT)

Best Actor

Matt Damon, The Martian

Johnny Depp, Black Mass

Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant

Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs

Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl

Other Possibilities:

Michael Caine, Youth

Bryan Cranston, Trumbo

Tom Hanks, Bridge of Spies

Michael B. Jordan, Creed

Ian McKellen, Mr. Holmes

Will Smith, Concussion

Changes Since Last Predictions: NONE

Best Actress

Cate Blanchett, Carol

Brie Larson, Room

Jennifer Lawrence, Joy

Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years

Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn

Other Possibilities:

Emily Blunt, Sicario

Blythe Danner, I’ll See You in My Dreams

Carey Mulligan, Suffragette

Maggie Smith, The Lady in the Van

Charlize Theron, Mad Max: Fury Road

Lily Tomlin, Grandma

Changes Since Last Predictions: Charlotte Rampling (IN), Blythe Danner (OUT)

Best Supporting Actor

Tom Hardy, The Revenant

Michael Keaton, Spotlight

Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight

Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies

Sylvester Stallone, Creed

Other Possibilities:

Christian Bale, The Big Short

Paul Dano, Love and Mercy

Benicio del Toro, Sicario

Joel Edgerton, Black Mass

Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation

Harvey Keitel, Youth

Jacob Tremblay, Room

Changes Since Last Predictions: Tom Hardy (IN), Idris Elba (OUT)

Best Supporting Actress

Jane Fonda, Youth

Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight

Rooney Mara, Carol

Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl

Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs

Other Possibilities:

Joan Allen, Room

Elizabeth Banks, Love and Mercy

Rachel McAdams, Spotlight

Kristin Stewart, Clouds of Sils Maria

Julie Walters, Brooklyn

Changes Since Last Predictions: Jane Fonda (IN), Joan Allen (OUT)

Best Original Screenplay (first prediction in category)

Bridge of Spies

The Hateful Eight

Inside Out

Love and Mercy

Spotlight

Other Possibilities:

Joy

Sicario

Straight Outta Compton

Youth

Best Adapted Screenplay (first prediction in category)

Anomalisa

Brooklyn

Carol

Room

Steve Jobs

Other Possibilities:

The Big Short

Creed

The Martian

The Revenant

And there you have it – folks! The next update will come next weekend…

 

A Lovely Day for Mad Max

A summertime thrill ride that has served as a resurgence for a thirty year old action franchise got a big Oscar boost today when Mad Max: Fury Road won the National Board of Review (NBR) award for Best Picture. This was an upset. While George Miller’s return to kinetic and wild adventure set pieces earned universal critical acclaim, it’s not really been looked at as a given for a Picture nod at the Academy Awards. The NBR attention does nothing but help.

Over this century, the NBR’s Picture winner has been nominated for the big race at the Oscars 14 out of 16 times (the exceptions were 2000’s Quills and last year’s A Most Violent Year). On the other hand, only two of the past 16 NBR honorees have won the Academy’s honor (2007’s No Country for Old Men and 2008’s Slumdog Millionaire).

I would still say that Fury Road is no shoo in for a nomination, but its chances no doubt increased with the announcement this afternoon. I also believe a scenario (and maybe a stronger one) exists where Miller gets a directing nomination with the film being left off of the Best Picture group come announcement time.

The NBR also names an additional nine favorite movies of the year. They were: Bridge of Spies, Creed, The Hateful Eight, Inside Out, The Martian, Room, Sicario, Spotlight, and Straight Outta Compton. Of these films, Sicario and Compton are seen as least likely to receive Oscar attention. Both are still possible and Creed‘s stock keeps rising.

High profile Oscar contenders left off? The Revenant, Steve Jobs, Joy, Anomalisa, Brooklyn, and Carol. However, the NBR list and the Academy list never match and expect some of these titles to be included in the big race.

Besides Max, the other pic to get a huge NBR boost is The Martian, where Ridley Scott won Best Director and Matt Damon won Best Actor. Again, neither are shoo ins for Oscar nods but their inclusion is seeming more and more probable.

As for the other acting categories, Brie Larson’s work in Room marked her first win in what could be several and her Oscar nod seems assured. Sylvester Stallone was victorious in Supporting Actor for Creed and it would now be a surprise if Oscar doesn’t call his name among the five nominees. The same is likely for Jennifer Jason Leigh in The Hateful Eight, who won Supporting Actress.

This day really marked the official beginning of the awards season and there’ll be much more to chew on (other critics group, Golden Globes, SAG Awards) before the Academy reveals their choices. And this blog will be following and keeping you up to date all the way. Stay tuned!

 

Todd’s Oscar Predictions: November Edition

We have arrived at my third round of Oscar predictions for the month of November. Some has changed, some has stayed the same. We’ll go through each of the six major categories one by one…

Let’s go!

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

This is the one category where I’ve made no changes, though any of the others listed as possibilities could find their way in. Most have Jane Fonda in the mix already, but I’m not quite there yet.

TODD’S PREDICTIONS  in SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Joan Allen, Room

Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight

Rooney Mara, Carol

Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl

Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs

Other Possibilities:

Elizabeth Banks, Love and Mercy

Jane Fonda, Youth

Diane Ladd, Joy

Rachel McAdams, Spotlight

Isabella Rossellini, Joy

Julie Walters, Brooklyn

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

And here we have the most changes of any category! Coming out of nowhere last week was Sylvester Stallone’s acclaimed performance in Creed and as of now, here appears to be a strong contender for a nod and maybe even the win. I’m also including Mark Ruffalo and re-including Idris Elba. Falling out are Benicio del Toro, Robert De Niro, and Tom Hardy, though they all remain possibles. This category has a whole lot of potential nominees, but only five slots available.

TODD’S PREDICTIONS for SUPPORTING ACTOR

Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation

Michael Keaton, Spotlight

Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight

Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies

Sylvester Stallone, Creed

Other Possibilities:

Christian Bale, The Big Short

Bradley Cooper, Joy

Paul Dano, Love and Mercy

Benicio del Toro, Sicario

Robert De Niro, Joy

Joel Edgerton, Black Mass

Harrison Ford, Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Tom Hardy, The Revenant

Samuel L. Jackson, The Hateful Eight

Harvey Keitel, Youth

Jason Mitchell, Straight Outta Compton

Kurt Russell, The Hateful Eight

Jacob Tremblay, Room

BEST ACTRESS

Four slots seem to be rather safe and have been for awhile: Cate Blanchett, Brie Larson, Jennifer Lawrence, and Saoirse Ronan. The fifth slot could legitimately be any of the others listed, but for now I’ve removed Carey Mulligan and replaced her with Blythe Danner.

TODD’S PREDICTIONS for ACTRESS

Cate Blanchett, Carol

Blythe Danner, I’ll See You in My Dreams

Brie Larson, Room

Jennifer Lawrence, Joy

Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn

Other Possibilities:

Emily Blunt, Sicario

Carey Mulligan, Suffragette

Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years

Maggie Smith, The Lady in the Van

Charlize Theron, Mad Max: Fury Road

Lily Tomlin, Grandma

BEST ACTOR

Only one change here as I currently feel the massive box office success of The Martian will get Matt Damon in. That takes Michael Caine out. Watch out for Will Smith, though, even though I don’t yet have him in the final  cut.

TODD’S PREDICTIONS for ACTOR

Matt Damon, The Martian

Johnny Depp, Black Mass

Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant

Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs

Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl

Other Possibilities:

Michael Caine, Youth

Bryan Cranston, Trumbo

Tom Hanks, Bridge of Spies

Michael B. Jordan, Creed

Will Smith, Concussion

BEST DIRECTOR

Two changes here as I believe Danny Boyle may miss out and George Miller won’t be the wild card pick I predicted in October. This puts David O. Russell and Ridley Scott in.

TODD’S PREDICTIONS for DIRECTOR

Lenny Abrahamson, Room

Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, The Revenant

Tom McCarthy, Spotlight

David O. Russell, Joy

Ridley Scott, The Martian

Other Possibilities:

Danny Boyle, Steve Jobs

Ryan Coogler, Creed

John Crowley, Brooklyn

Cary Fukanaga, Beasts of No Nation

Todd Haynes, Carol

Tom Hooper, The Danish Girl

George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road

Steven Spielberg, Bridge of Spies

Quentin Tarantino, The Hateful Eight

BEST PICTURE

I am still predicting nine nominees out of the possible five-ten and I’ve made two changes. I’m putting Carol back in the mix and The Martian in for the first time. That leaves out Bridge of Spies and The Danish Girl, though both remain major contenders. It’s worth noting that Steve Jobs, due to its disastrous box office performance, is not even close to a shoo in  and it could fall off.

TODD’s PREDICTIONS for PICTURE

Brooklyn

Carol

The Hateful Eight

Joy

The Martian

The Revenant

Room

Spotlight

Steve Jobs

Other Possibilities:

Beasts of No Nation

The Big Short

Bridge of Spies

Creed

The Danish Girl

Inside Out

In the Heart of the Sea

Mad Max: Fury Road

Sicario

Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Straight Outta Comption

And that does it for my November Oscar predictions, folks! I’ll have the December predictions up shortly before Christmas…

Box Office Predictions: September 11-13

As the fall box office season gets underway, three new titles open Friday: romantic thriller The Perfect Guy, low budget M. Night Shyamalan horror pic The Visit and faith based drama 90 Minutes in Heaven. You can peruse my detailed individual predictions post on each here:

The Perfect Guy Box Office Prediction

The Visit Box Office Prediction

90 Minutes in Heaven Box Office Prediction

I believe the new releases stand a decent chance at filling the top three slots this weekend. As I see it, The Perfect Guy should take the top spot unless The Visit over performs. I could also see The Visit not doing very well and it remains a large question mark. On a far less number of screens than its competitors, 90 Minutes should have a sturdy start but might be a little hindered by the continuing solid performance of the similarly themed War Room.

Speaking of War Room, I believe it and A Walk in the Woods should both experience smallish declines (par for the course on the post Labor Day weekend) and round out the top five. And with that, my predictions:

  1. The Perfect Guy

Predicted Gross: $21.9 million

2. The Visit

Predicted Gross: $17 million

3. 90 Minutes in Heaven

Predicted Gross: $10.5 million

4. War Room

Predicted Gross: $8.9 million (representing a drop of 33%)

5. A Walk in the Woods

Predicted Gross: $7.7 million

Box Office Results (September 4-7)

As expected, the Labor Day weekend was sluggish but there were surprises to be had… particularly in the top two spots. War Room expanded on its screen count and therefore its numbers and unexpectedly took the #1 spot away from three peat champ Straight Outta Compton. Over the four day holiday, it took in $13.3 million to bring its two week tally to $28 million. I only had it earning $7.7 million. Oops

The other pic doing better than expected business: the Robert Redford travel flick A Walk in the Woods which took second with $10.9 million over the weekend and $12.8 million since its Wednesday bow. It greatly surpassed my respective projections of just $4.3 and $5.8 million. Oops again.

Dipping to third was Straight Outta Compton with $10.8 million, under my $14.3 million estimate. Its terrific four week total stands at $149 million. Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation was fourth with $9.4 million (I said $9.9M) for an overall $182 million total.

The Transporter: Refueled opened with a whimper at $9 million, a bit under my $10.2M prediction. The Owen Wilson thriller No Escape was sixth with $7 million (just ahead of my $6M estimate) for a $20M take.

And that’s all for now! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: September 4-7

Unlike most holiday weekend frames, Labor Day isn’t exactly known for studios bringing out heavy hitters and that remains unchanged in 2015. There are two new releases finding their way to theaters over the long weekend: franchise reboot The Transporter: Refueled and Robert Redford led A Walk in the Woods (which opens Wednesday). You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/08/28/the-transporter-refueled-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/08/29/a-walk-in-the-woods-box-office-prediction/

I don’t expect much from either. While Transporter has a reasonable shot at debuting #1, a lot of summer holdovers end up doing more Labor Day weekend than they did the previous weekend. If that holds true for Straight Outta Compton, as I believe it will, that means it will be #1 for the fourth straight weekend. As I see it, Transporter could be second or third depending on how well Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation increases its gross. The Christian themed War Room got off to a much better than anticipated start, but I actually see it losing close to a third of its opening weekend audience while No Escape (which also debuted above expectations) may lose about a fourth. That would leave Mr. Redford and his Woods in sixth place.

And with that, my predictions for the four day Labor Day weekend top six:

  1. Straight Outta Compton

Predicted Gross: $14.3 million (representing an increase of 9%)

2. The Transporter: Refueled

Predicted Gross: $10.2 million

3. Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation

Predicted Gross: $9.9 million (representing an increase of 23%)

4. War Room

Predicted Gross: $7.7 million (representing a drop of 31%)

5. No Escape

Predicted Gross: $6 million

6. A Walk in the Woods

Predicted Gross: $4.3 million (Friday to Monday), $5.8 million (Wednesday to Monday)

Box Office Results (August 28-30)

The NWA biopic Straight Outta Compton made it a three peat this weekend with $13.1 million (just above my $12.5M estimate) to bring its impressive total to $134 million. While I pretty much got that right, I stumbled when it came to predicting the weekend’s newcomers.

The aforementioned War Room easily beat expectations with a terrific $11.3 million for second place (surging above my $5.7M prediction). Considering its reported $3M budget, this is a wonderful beginning for it.

Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation took third with $8.1 million, just beyond my $7.4M projection for a total of $170M.

Just behind Mission was the Owen Wilson/Pierce Brosnan thriller No Escape which also made $8.1 million over the traditional weekend and $10.1 million since its Wednesday debut. This outshines my respective predictions of $4.7M and $6.3M and is a better start than most anticipated.

Rounding out the top five was Sinister 2 in its sophomore frame with $4.6 million. I incorrectly had it outside the top five and its two week total is an unimpressive $18M.

Where I really went wrong was with the Zac Efron flick We Are Your Friends, which had an absolutely putrid $1.7 million start for only 13th place. I had it second with $10.9M… oops! Clearly audiences had zero interest in Friends and it managed only an embarrassing $770 per screen average.

And that’s all for now, friends! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: August 28-30

BLOGGER’S NOTE (Thursday, August 27) – I am revising my top five predictions and accounting for the Christian themed drama War Room (opening on approximately 1100 screens). I believe it will manage to snag the #4 spot.

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/08/27/war-room-box-office-prediction/

The last weekend of August should bring forth some serious box office doldrums as it usually does this time of year. There are two new entries out: the Zac Efron DJ drama We Are Your Friends and Owen Wilson action thriller No Escape. You can read my detailed prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/08/20/we-are-your-friends-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/08/21/no-escape-box-office-prediction/

I frankly don’t expect much from either, but Friends stands the better chance of over performing and possibly even nabbing the #1 spot. I don’t think it’ll quite get there though and that means Straight Outta Compton should manage to stay #1 for the third weekend in a row. Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation should drop from 2nd to 3rd.

And with that, my predictions for the weekend’s top five:

  1. Straight Outta Compton

Predicted Gross: $12.5 million (representing a drop of 52%)

2. We Are Your Friends

Predicted Gross: $10.9 million

3. Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation

Predicted Gross: $7.4 million (representing a drop of 37%)

4. War Room

Predicted Gross: $5.7 million

5. No Escape

Predicted Gross: $4.7 million (Friday to Sunday), $6.3 million (Wednesday to Sunday prediction)

Box Office Results (August 21-23)

The N.W.A. biopic continued to rule the charts as Straight Outta Compton took in $26.3 million in its sophomore frame, just above my $24.6M estimate. The acclaimed pic has amassed an impressive $111 million in ten days.

Staying in the runner-up spot was Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation which added $11.4 million to its coffers, just ahead of my $10.4M projection. Its total stands at $157M.

Horror sequel Sinister 2 sputtered with just $10.5 million, well below my $16.2M prediction and well under the $18 million earned by the original for its start. Hitman: Agent 47 debuted in fourth with an unremarkable $8.3 million, though it did top my $6M estimate.

The Man from U.N.C.L.E. dropped to fifth in weekend #2 with $7.3 million, in line with my $7.1M prediction. Its sleepy two week total is at $26M. Finally, the Jesse Eisenberg/Kristen Stewart action comedy American Ultra tanked in sixth place with just $5.4 million, falling below my $9.8M estimate.

And that’s all for now, folks! Until next time…

Oscar Watch: Straight Outta Compton

Last weekend the N.W.A. biopic Straight Outta Compton became a cultural phenomenon, grossing an astonishing $60 million out of the gate. This rocketed past even the most lofty expectations. The film’s A Cinemascore grade prove audiences were very pleased. Its 89% Rotten Tomatoes rating show critics are behind it too.

This brings up a question that I wouldn’t have thought to ask even a week ago: could Straight Outta Compton get some Oscar love? The short answer: it’s possible but unlikely. Compton will need the help of at least two or three hotly anticipated autumn releases not to meet their awards potential. That often happens, but one other summer release (and a much different one) is currently the front runner for this season’s potential Picture nominees: Pixar’s Inside Out.

Still – Oscar voters could certainly show a cool factor and express themselves by bringing Compton into the mix. Its only real shot is probably a stand alone Best Picture nod. Director F. Gary Gray and the actors shouldn’t be a factor. For now, this blogger will say it’s a long shot, but we shall see how the next four and a half months plays out.

Box Office Predictions: August 21-23

As we enter the doldrums of late August at the box office, we have three new entries populating the multiplexes: horror sequel Sinister 2, Jesse Eisenberg/Kristen Stewart action comedy American Ultra, and video game inspired Hitman: Agent 47. You can read my detailed prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/08/13/sinister-2-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/08/13/american-ultra-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/08/13/hitman-agent-47-box-office-prediction/

I don’t expect any of them to outdo the second weekend of current champ Straight Outta Compton, which made a boatload of cash this weekend (more on that below). Sinister 2 seems to be the only one with a shot, as horror films do often over perform. I expect both Ultra and Hitman to premiere under double digits.

Compton should actually drop precipitously in its sophomore frame considering many moviegoers likely wanted to rush out and see it. For comparison sake, Eminem’s 8 Mile dipped 62% in its second weekend and Compton could drop close to that (which is nothing against it considering it made way more out of the gate than anybody figured it would).

As for other holdovers, I look for Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation to eek out a third place showing over Ultra and The Man from U.N.C.L.E. taking the five spot in weekend #2 after its disappointing opening.

And with that, my predictions for the weekend’s top six:

  1. Straight Outta Compton

Predicted Gross: $24.6 million (representing a drop of 59%)

2. Sinister 2

Predicted Gross: $16.2 million

3. Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation

Predicted Gross: $10.4 million (representing a drop of 41%)

4. American Ultra

Predicted Gross: $9.8 million

5. The Man from U.N.C.L.E.

Predicted Gross: $7.1 million (representing a drop of 47%)

6. Hitman: Agent 47

Predicted Gross: $6 million

Box Office Results (August 14-16)

As mentioned, the NWA biopic Straight Outta Compton capitalized on its great reviews, music, and word of mouth and had a massive opening that exceeded all expectations. The film grossed an astonishing $60.2 million, blasting past my $39.3M estimate. With a reported budget of just $29 million, Compton represents another blockbuster for Universal Pictures in 2015.

Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation dropped to second in weekend #3 with $17.1 million, a bit above my $14.9M projection. The hit fifth entry in Tom Cruise’s franchise stands at $138M so far.

The news was not good for The Man from U.N.C.L.E., which stalled with just a $13.4 million opening, under my $18.6M prediction. Audience attention was clearly elsewhere over the weekend and this planned franchise will likely end here.

Speaking of possibly dead franchises, the news kept getting worse for last weekend’s bomb Fantastic Four. It dropped a dramatic 68% in weekend #2 with just $8.1 million, under my predicted $11.1M. The Fox property has taken in an embarrassing $42M in ten days.

Finally, the Jason Bateman/Joel Edgerton suspense pic The Gift took in $6.5 million in its second weekend, right in line with my $6.3M estimate. The critically applauded film has made a respectable $23M.

And that’s all for now, folks! Until next time…