After a couple years of major controversy, the Hollywood Foreign Press Association’s big shindig is back on your television screens with the 80th Golden Globe Awards. The ceremony honoring the year’s best in film and TV returns to NBC on January 10th and the nominations are out on Monday, December 12th.
Readers of my blog are aware that I update my Oscar predictions every week to two weeks. With the Globes, it’s just one shot. As an aside, I don’t forecast the small screen races.
There are 14 categories to consider. As you may recall, the Globes split Drama and Comedy/Musical for Picture and the lead acting derbies. This is not the case with director or supporting. Furthermore, this ceremony has a sole Screenplay race while the Academy differentiates between original and adapted works.
Let’s get to it! For each competition, I’m also giving you my alternate. On Monday, I’ll have a recap up with my thoughts on the nominations and how I performed.
Best Motion Picture – Drama
Elvis
The Fabelmans
Tár
Top Gun: Maverick
Women Talking
Alternate: Avatar: The Way of Water
Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy
Babylon
The Banshees of Inisherin
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
The Menu
Alternate: Triangle of Sadness
Best Director
Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Baz Luhrmann, Elvis
Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin
Sarah Polley, Women Talking
Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans
Alternate: Todd Field, Tár
Best Actress – Drama
Cate Blanchett, Tár
Olivia Colman, Empire of Light
Viola Davis, The Woman King
Danielle Deadwyler, Till
Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans
Alternate: Jennifer Lawrence, Causeway
Best Actor – Drama
Austin Butler, Elvis
Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick
Brendan Fraser, The Whale
Paul Mescal, Aftersun
Bill Nighy, Living
Alternate: Hugh Jackman, The Son
Best Actress – Musical/Comedy
Lesley Manville, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris
Margot Robbie, Babylon
Anya Taylor-Joy, The Menu
Emma Thompson, Good Luck to You, Leo Grande
Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Alternate: Julia Roberts, Ticket to Paradise
Best Actor – Musical or Comedy
Diego Calva, Babylon
Daniel Craig, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin
Ralph Fiennes, The Menu
Tom Hanks, A Man Called Otto
Alternate: Adam Driver, White Noise
Best Supporting Actress
Hong Chau, The Whale
Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin
Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Claire Foy, Women Talking
Janelle Monae, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Alternate: Jessie Buckley, Women Talking
Best Supporting Actor
Paul Dano, The Fabelmans
Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin
Tom Hanks, Elvis
Brad Pitt, Babylon
Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Alternate: Ben Whishaw, Women Talking
Best Screenplay
The Banshees of Inisherin
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
Tár
Women Talking
Alternate: Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Best Animated Motion Picture
The Bad Guys
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
Turning Red
Alternate: My Father’s Dragon
Best Foreign Language Motion Picture
All Quiet on the Western Front
Argentina, 1985
Bardo
Decision to Leave
RRR
Alternate: Saint Omer
Best Original Score
Avatar: The Way of Water
Babylon
The Fabelmans
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Women Talking
Alternate: The Banshees of Inisherin
Best Original Song
“Ciao Papa” from Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
“Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick
“Lift Me Up” from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
“Naatu Naatu” from RRR
“Nobody Like U” from Turning Red
Alternate: “Carolina” from Where the Crawdads Sing
And that means I’m projecting the following number of mentions for these pictures:
6 Nominations
The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fabelmans
5 Nominations
Babylon, Women Talking
4 Nominations
Elvis
3 Nominations
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, The Menu, Tár
2 Nominations
RRR, Turning Red, The Whale
1 Nomination
Aftersun, All Quiet on the Western Front, Argentina, 1985, Avatar: The Way of Water, The Bad Guys, Bardo, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Decision to Leave, Empire of Light, Good Luck to You, Leo Grande, Living, A Man Called Otto, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, Till, The Woman King
Elvis vaults 6 spots from 15th to 9th in Best Picture for my first Oscar predictions in two weeks and we have changes in Best Director and three of the four acting derbies. Baz Luhrmann’s biopic could be an example (like Top Gun: Maverick and potentially Avatar: The Way of Water) of the Academy showing love to the blockbusters keeping patrons in the theaters. My inclusion of Elvis excludes Triangle of Sadness from the estimated ten.
While Babylon is still in BP, Damien Chazelle drops with Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin) in for the directing quintet.
That fifth slot in Best Actor remains constantly changing. It’s Hugh Jackman (The Son) back in the mix over Tom Cruise (Top Gun: Maverick). In Supporting Actress, Stephanie Hsu from Everything Everywhere All at Once falls out in favor of costar Jamie Lee Curtis. Barry Keoghan from Banshees returns to the Supporting Actor fold over Judd Hirsch in The Fabelmans.
Finally, Everything Everywhere is the new leader in terms of overall nominations with Babylon and The Fabelmans each losing a bit of ground.
You can peruse all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)
3. Women Talking (PR: 4) (+1)
4. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 6) (+1)
6. Tár (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Babylon (PR: 5) (-2)
8. The Whale (PR: 8) (E)
9. Elvis (PR: 15) (+6)
10. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 10) (E)
Other Possibilities:
11. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 9) (-2)
12. She Said (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 12) (-2)
15. Decision to Leave (PR: 13) (-2)
Dropped Out:
All Quiet on the Western Front
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)
2. Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sarah Polley, Women Talking (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Todd Field, Tár (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Damien Chazelle, Babylon (PR: 3) (-3)
7. James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Edward Berger, All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 8) (-1)
10. S.S. Rajamouli, RRR (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Joseph Kosinski, Top Gun: Maverick
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Cate Blanchett, Tár (PR: 1) (E)
2. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)
3. Danielle Deadwyler, Till (PR: 3) (E)
4. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans (PR: 4) (E)
5. Margot Robbie, Babylon (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light (PR: 6) (E)
7. Viola Davis, The Woman King (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Jennifer Lawrence, Causeway (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Naomi Ackie, I Wanna Dance with Somebody (PR: 9) (E)
10. Rooney Mara, Women Talking (PR: 10) (E)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Brendan Fraser, The Whale (PR: 1) (E)
2. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (E)
3. Austin Butler, Elvis (PR: 3) (E)
4. Bill Nighy, Living (PR: 4) (E)
5. Hugh Jackman, The Son (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Diego Calva, Babylon (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Paul Mescal, Aftersun (PR: 8) (E)
9. Jeremy Pope, The Inspection (PR: 9) (E)
10. Daniel Gimenez Cacho, Bardo (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Will Smith, Emancipation
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Claire Foy, Women Talking (PR: 1) (E)
2. Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (E)
3. Jessie Buckley, Women Talking (PR: 3) (E)
4. Hong Chau, The Whale (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Carey Mulligan, She Said (PR: 6) (E)
7. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Dolly De Leon, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 8) (E)
9. Nina Hoss, Tár (PR: 9) (E)
10. Keke Palmer, Nope (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)
2. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (E)
3. Ben Whishaw, Women Talking (PR: 3) (E)
4. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans (PR: 4) (E)
5. Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 6) (+1)
10. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Corsage
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)
3. Women Talking (PR: 3) (E)
4. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Empire of Light (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 5) (-2)
8. The Batman (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Living (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
She Said
White Noise
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)
2. “Lift Me Up” from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 2) (E)
3. “Naatu Naatu” from RRR (PR: 3) (E)
4. “Applause” from Tell It Like a Woman (PR: 5) (+1)
5. “This Is A Life” from Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Nobody Like U” from Turning Red (PR: 4) (-2)
7. “Ciao Papa” from Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 6) (-1)
8. “New Body Rhumba” from White Noise (PR: 9) (+1)
9. “Carolina” from Where the Crawdads Sing (PR: 8) (-1)
10. “Song Chord” from Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
“Stand Up” from Till
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 2) (E)
3. Elvis (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Fabelmans (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 7) (E)
8. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Empire of Light (PR: Not Ranked)
10. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
The Woman King
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)
2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Batman (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 6) (+1)
5. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Elvis (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Babylon (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Fabelmans (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Nope (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 1) (E)
2. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 2) (E)
3. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 3) (E)
4. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 4) (E)
5. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Batman (PR: 6) (E)
7. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 5) (-2)
8. RRR (PR: 8) (E)
9. Good Night Oppy (PR: 9) (E)
10. Nope (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
All Quiet on the Western Front
And that equates to these movies garnering these numbers in terms of nods:
11 Nominations
Everything Everywhere All at Once
10 Nominations
The Fabelmans
8 Nominations
The Banshees of Inisherin
7 Nominations
Babylon, Women Talking
6 Nominations
Avatar: The Way of Water, Elvis, Top Gun: Maverick
5 Nominations
The Whale
4 Nominations
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Tár
2 Nominations
All Quiet on the Western Front, The Batman, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
1 Nomination
All That Breathes, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, The Bad Guys, Bardo, Decision to Leave, Descendant, Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, Empire of Light, Fire of Love, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Holy Spider, Living, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, My Father’s Dragon, Navalny, RRR, Saint Omer, She Said, The Son, Tell It Like a Woman, Till, Triangle of Sadness, Turning Red, White Noise, The Woman King
After a historically weak Thanksgiving frame that left moviegoers hungry for other options, the first weekend of December should be rather quiet at multiplexes as well. The lone wide release is Violent Night with David Harbour as a gun toting Santa. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:
Night, even though I have it falling under $10 million, should slide into the runner-up position behind Black Panther: Wakanda Forever. The MCU sequel looks to four-peat and should have no trouble doing so. A low to mid 50s drop would put it over $20 million. It’s likely to be #1 for five weekends until Avatar: The Way of Water arrives on December 16th.
After a disastrous opening (more on that below), Strange World should fall to third. With a weak B Cinemascore grade, the Disney animated flop could experience a plummet in the mid to high 50s. Who knows? Maybe even higher.
The four and five spots could be close between the second and third frames of Devotion and The Menu. Both should see dips in the mid 40s.
Here’s how I see the top 5 looking:
1. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Predicted Gross: $21.3 million
2. Violent Night
Predicted Gross: $9.4 million
3. Strange World
Predicted Gross: $5.2 million
4. Devotion
Predicted Gross: $3.3 million
5. The Menu
Predicted Gross: $3.1 million
Box Office Results (Thanksgiving Weekend)
The Turkey Day holiday didn’t bring in the masses as the weekend fell under $100 million. That’s despite plenty of new releases for crowds to chew on.
Strangely enough, the biggest winner belonged to a streamer. Netflix doesn’t officially report numbers. They put Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, the acclaimed sequel to 2019’s blockbuster, on just under 700 screens. Word is out that it did approximately $9.2 million from Friday to Sunday and $13.3 million since the Wednesday start. That per theater average of over $13k is easily the best of the bunch. Onion is scheduled to leave its venues tomorrow before it hits Netflix on December 23rd.
Now back to the movies that do report official tallies. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever easily stayed atop the charts with $45.5 million, besting my $37.9 million prediction in weekend #3. The 17-day total is $367 million.
The story of the holiday was the dismal Strange World performance. The Mouse Factory had a disappointing result over the summer with Lightyear. This made it look like a phenomenon. World took in an embarrassing $12.1 million from Friday to Sunday and $18.8 million in the five-day. I said it would manage $19.3 million and $26.7 million, respectively. Simply put, Disney animated efforts aren’t supposed to do those anemic figures.
I suppose technically Glass Onion was third, so the war saga Devotion was fourth. Despite mostly decent reviews, it was a flop considering the reported $90 million budget. The Friday to Sunday take was $5.9 million with $9 million when counting Wednesday and Thursday. I went higher with $7.2 million and $10.7 million.
The Menu rounded out the top five at $5.4 million (I said $6.4 million) to bring the two-week gross to $18 million.
Black Adam was sixth with $3.2 million, on target with my $3.3 million prediction. Total is $162 million.
Steven Spielberg’s awards hopeful The Fabelmans was on 638 screens and was seventh with $2.2 million ($3.1 million for the five-day). That’s under my guesstimates of $2.8 million and $4.1 million. While that’s easily the second best average of the newbies (after Onion), it’s still not too impressive. It will hope to develop legs during awards season.
The cannibalistic romance Bones and All wasn’t a recipe for success with an 8th place showing. The $2.2 million and $3.6 million three and five day earnings couldn’t match my $3.5 and $5.3 million projections.
Ticket to Paradise was ninth with $1.8 million (I went with $2.3 million) as the rom com is up to $65 million.
Fathom Event The Chosen Season 3: Episodes 1 and 2 was 10th as it dove 81% to $1.5 million. I was more giving at $2.4 million. In ten days, it’s made $13 million.
Finally, She Said was 11th after its poor premiere last weekend. With $1.1 million (I said $1.6 million), it’s at a lowly $4 million.
Hollywood is hoping audiences mix a trip to the multiplex in their holiday plans. We have a slew of new releases, but it should be a three-week old leftover topping the Turkey weekend charts. Disney’s animated Strange World, aerial adventure Devotion, cannibalistic romance Bones and All, and Steven Spielberg’s coming-of-age awards hopeful The Fabelmans all debut or expand. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on them here:
Let’s begin with a title you don’t see. Rian Johnson’s Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery is the eagerly awaited and well-reviewed follow-up to Knives Out, which opened over the same holiday three years ago. Netflix is the distributor and it will be before our streaming eyes for Christmas. Onion is hitting approximately 600 venues for a sneak preview from Wednesday to Sunday. It is not expected that Netflix will report its financials. That’s why you won’t find it in the top 10. If they do end up deciding to do so, I imagine it’ll do quite well (and be either third or fourth).
Back to movies where we expect box office grosses! Strange World is the Mouse Factory’s latest animated offering to be unveiled over Thanksgiving. Yet the marketing campaign has been weak. My high teens three-day and mid 20s five-day is very subpar for the studio. On the bright side, they’ll certainly have numbers 1-2 as Black Panther: Wakanda Forever should three-peat with a drop in the low 40s range.
Devotion could over perform if enough older moviegoers check in. I have it settling for a so-so third place in the high single digits for the traditional frame and low double digits for the Wednesday to Sunday portion.
The Menu should be fourth after an appetizing start (more on that below). I think it’ll only fall in the high 20s or low 30s for the sophomore outing. Bones and All could round out the top five. Its gory subject matter could prevent crowds from perusing its gruesome menu.
Spielberg’s The Fabelmans is out on just 600 screens. That limits the potential and I have a gut feeling it may fall short of expectations anyway. I have it pegged for 7th place as it hopes that Oscar buzz improves its earnings in later weekends.
Here’s how I envision the top 10 looking with 3 and 5 day estimates for the newcomers:
1. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Predicted Gross: $37.9 million
2. Strange World
Predicted Gross: $19.3 million (Friday to Sunday); $26.7 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
3. Devotion
Predicted Gross: $7.2 million (Friday to Sunday); $10.7 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
4. The Menu
Predicted Gross: $6.4 million
5. Bones and All
Predicted Gross: $3.5 million (Friday to Sunday); $5.3 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
6. Black Adam
Predicted Gross: $3.3 million
7. The Fabelmans
Predicted Gross: $2.8 million (Friday to Sunday); $4.1 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
8. The Chosen Season 3: Episodes 1 and 2
Predicted Gross: $2.4 million
9. Ticket to Paradise
Predicted Gross: $2.3 million
10. She Said
Predicted Gross: $1.6 million
Box Office Results (November 18-20)
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever didn’t quite drop as far as MCU predecessors Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness or Thor: Love and Thunder, but it was still a steep decline. The sequel to 2018’s phenomenon slid 63% in weekend 2 with $66.4 million, under my $70.3 million projection. The ten-day tally is $287 million.
The Menu was the rare pic for the grown-ups that performed admirably. The culinary satire was runner-up with $9 million, a bit ahead of my $8.2 million prediction. Look for it for to hold well over Thanksgiving.
The Chosen Season 3: Episodes 1 and 2 had its core audience believing as the Fathom Events experience was third with $8.7 million (topping my $7.5 million estimate). Last December, Christmas with the Chosen: The Messengers had a 71% plummet in its second weekend. Expect similar results here.
Black Adam was fourth with $4.6 million (I said $5.3 million) as the superhero pic is up to $157 million after four weeks.
Ticket to Paradise rounded out the top five at $3.1 million, below my $4.1 million prediction. The rom com has grossed $61 million.
Finally, She Said was a dud. Focused on the journalistic journey to expose Harvey Weinstein, it was a quiet sixth at $2.2 million. I went with $3.4 million.
And that does it for now, folks! Have a Happy Thanksgiving!!
Two weeks have passed since my previous Oscar predictions and the biggest news is that there’s a new #1 in Best Picture. For quite some time, I’ve had Steven Spielberg’s The Fabelmans in first position. It would still make plenty of sense to keep it there. However, I’ve had a nagging feeling that this frontrunner is vulnerable. And my gut (at the moment) tells me that Everything Everywhere All at Once is a major threat for the victory. Stephanie Hsu is back in Supporting Actress for Everything over Carey Mulligan (She Said).
This isn’t the only development in the last 14 days. Damien Chazelle’s eagerly awaited Babylon held screenings. The buzz is wildly mixed, but I still believe it should perform well with nominations.
Another big change in BP is that Avatar: The Way of Water has surfaced in the top 10 (where it’s yet to place before). She Said, which had a very disappointing box office showing this weekend, dips to 11th.
There are changes in Best Actor. For the first time, I’m elevating Tom Cruise to the top five in Best Actor. He does so at the expense of Hugh Jackman in The Son, whose wide release was just delayed to January. That indicates to me that Sony Pictures Classics is losing faith in the pic (which received plenty of negative reviews). They may focus the bulk of their attention on Bill Nighy in Living.
In Supporting Actor, I’ve put Paul Dano back in for The Fabelmans. That means Spielberg’s movie would have the double supporting nominees instead of The Banshees of Inisherin (Barry Keoghan has moved to sixth).
There’s modifications in Animated Feature with Marcel the Shell with Shoes On and My Father’s Dragon entering the quintet and Wendell and Wild and Strange World falling out. Holy Spider is back in International Feature Film to the detriment of Bardo. In Documentary Feature, Fire of Love returns with Last Flight Home out.
You can peruse all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1 . Everything Everywhere All at Once (Previous Ranking: 2) (+1)
2. The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (-1)
3. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Women Talking (PR: 4) (E)
5. Babylon (PR: 3) (-2)
6. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 6) (E)
7. Tár (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Whale (PR: 8) (E)
9. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 9) (E)
10. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 13) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
11. She Said (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Decision to Leave (PR: 12) (-1)
14. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 11) (-3)
15. Elvis (PR: 14) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)
2. Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Damien Chazelle, Babylon (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Sarah Polley, Women Talking (PR: 4) (E)
5. Todd Field, Tár (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave (PR: 7) (E)
8. Edward Berger, All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 6) (-2)
9. James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 9) (E)
10. Joseph Kosinski, Top Gun: Maverick (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Ruben Ostlund, Triangle of Sadness
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Cate Blanchett, Tár (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)
2. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)
3. Danielle Deadwyler, Till (PR: 3) (E)
4. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans (PR: 4) (E)
5. Margot Robbie, Babylon (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light (PR: 6) (E)
7. Jennifer Lawrence, Causeway (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Viola Davis, The Woman King (PR: 8) (E)
9. Naomi Ackie, I Wanna Dance with Somebody (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Rooney Mara, Women Talking (PR: 10) (E)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Brendan Fraser, The Whale (PR: 1) (E)
2. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (E)
3. Austin Butler, Elvis (PR: 3) (E)
4. Bill Nighy, Living (PR: 4) (E)
5. Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Diego Calva, Babylon (PR: 6) (E)
7. Hugh Jackman, The Son (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Paul Mescal, Aftersun (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Jeremy Pope, The Inspection (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Will Smith, Emancipation (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Adam Driver, White Noise
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Claire Foy, Women Talking (PR: 1) (E)
2. Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (E)
3. Jessie Buckley, Women Talking (PR: 3) (E)
4. Hong Chau, The Whale (PR: 4) (E)
5. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Carey Mulligan, She Said (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Dolly De Leon, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Nina Hoss, Tár (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jean Smart, Babylon
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)
2. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (E)
3. Ben Whishaw, Women Talking (PR: 3) (E)
4. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Brad Pitt, Babylon (PR: 7) (E)
8. Mark Rylance, Bones and All (PR: 8) (E)
9. Eddie Redmayne, The Good Nurse (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Woody Harrelson, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (+1)
3. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 4) (E)
5. Tár (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Babylon (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Menu (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Aftersun (PR: 8) (E)
9. Decision to Leave (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Bardo (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Broker
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Women Talking (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Whale (PR: 2) (E)
3. She Said (PR: 3) (E)
4. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 4) (E)
5. Living (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. White Noise (PR: 6) (E)
7. Bones and All (PR: 7) (E)
8. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 8) (E)
9. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Son (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
All Quiet on the Western Front
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 1) (E)
2. Turning Red (PR: 2) (E)
3. Marcel the Shell with Shoes On (PR: 6) (+3)
4. My Father’s Dragon (PR: 8) (+4)
5. The Bad Guys (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wendell and Wild (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Strange World (PR: 4) (-3)
8. The Sea Beast (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Lightyear (PR: 9) (E)
10. Minions: The Rise of Gru (PR: 10) (E)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Decision to Leave (PR: 2) (+1)
2. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Close (PR: 3) (E)
4. Saint Omer (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Holy Spider (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Bardo (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Argentina, 1985 (PR: 8) (+1)
8. The Quiet Girl (PR: Not Ranked)
9. EO (PR: 9) (E)
10. Alcarras (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Klondike
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (PR: 1) (E)
2. Descendant (PR: 2) (E)
3. Navalny (PR: 3) (E)
4. All That Breathes (PR: 4) (E)
5. Fire of Love (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Territory (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Moonage Daydream (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Good Night Oppy (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Last Flight Home (PR: 5) (-4)
10. Sr. (PR: 10) (E)
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 3) (+1)
3. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Empire of Light (PR: 4) (E)
5. Bardo (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 7) (+1)
7. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 5) (-2)
8. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 8) (E)
9. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Emancipation (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Elvis (PR: 2) (E)
3. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Woman King (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Fabelmans (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Living (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Corsage (PR: 9) (E)
10. Three Thousand Years of Longing (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)
2. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 3) (+1)
3. The Fabelmans (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Babylon (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Women Talking (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Elvis (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 9) (+1)
9. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Tár (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Decision to Leave
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Whale (PR: 1) (E)
2. Elvis (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Babylon (PR: 2) (-1)
4. The Batman (PR: 4) (E)
5. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Woman King (PR: 10) (+3)
8. X (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Amsterdam (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Corsage (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Three Thousand Years of Longing
All Quiet on the Western Front
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon (PR: 2) (+1)
2. The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Women Talking (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Empire of Light (PR: 3) (-4)
8. She Said (PR: Not Ranked)
9. White Noise (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Batman (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Tár
Bardo
All Quiet on the Western Front
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)
2. “Lift Me Up” from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 2) (E)
3. “Naatu Naatu” from RRR (PR: 3) (E)
4. “Nobody Like U” from Turning Red (PR: 4) (E)
5. “Applause” from Tell It Like a Woman (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Ciao Papa” from Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 10) (+4)
7. “This Is a Life” from Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 5) (-2)
8. “Carolina” from Where the Crawdads Sing (PR: 8) (E)
9. “New Body Rhumba” from White Noise (PR: 9) (E)
10. “Stand Up” from Till (PR: 7) (-3)
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 2) (E)
3. Elvis (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 3) (-1)
5. The Fabelmans (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 6) (-1)
8. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 10) (+2)
9. The Woman King (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Empire of Light
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)
2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 2) (E)
3. Elvis (PR: 7) (+4)
4. The Batman (PR: 6) (+2)
5. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Babylon (PR: 3) (-4)
8. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 4) (-4)
9. The Fabelmans (PR: 9) (E)
10. Nope (PR: 10) (E)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 1) (E)
2. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 2) (E)
3. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 3) (E)
4. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Batman (PR: 6) (E)
7. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (PR: 8) (+1)
8. RRR (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Good Night Oppy (PR: 10) (+1)
10. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 9) (-1)
And that equates to these movies garnering these numbers of nominations:
10 Nominations
The Fabelmans
9 Nominations
Babylon, Everything Everywhere All at Once
7 Nominations
Avatar: The Way of Water, Women Talking
6 Nominations
Top Gun: Maverick
5 Nominations
The Banshees of Inisherin, Elvis, The Whale
4 Nominations
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Tár
3 Nominations
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
2 Nominations
All Quiet on the Western Front, The Batman, Living, Triangle of Sadness, Turning Red
1 Nomination
All That Breathes, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, The Bad Guys, Bardo, Close, Decision to Leave, Descendant, Empire of Light, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Holy Spider, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris, My Father’s Dragon, Navalny, RRR, Saint Omer, She Said, Tell It Like a Woman, Till, The Woman King
We have reached 2017 in my posts speculating on a specific piece of Oscar history. As awards followers are aware, 2009 saw the Academy expand the Best Picture category from five movies to ten. That lasted for two years and in 2011, it switched to anywhere from 5-10 with 8 or 9 as the magic numbers for several years. In 2021, the number reverted back to a set ten.
What if that hadn’t happened? What if the BP derby had stayed at a quintet? What pictures would have made the cut? If you missed my write-ups centered on 2009-16, they are linked at the bottom of the post.
There were nine nominees for 2017’s competition. If there were 5, we know Guillermo del Toro’s The Shape of Water would have made the quintet. It won BP along with Director, Original Score, and Production Design and received 13 nods total (easily the most of all).
Of the 8 remaining movies, here’s my thoughts on which half is in and which half and is out.
Call Me by Your Name
Luca Guadagnino’s coming-of-age romance was a critical darling that won Adapted Screenplay. It was also up for Actor (Timothee Chalamet) and Original Song. The Academy likely almost nominated Armie Hammer for Supporting Actor and are probably glad they snubbed him.
Does It Make the Final Five?
No, but I struggled with this call. An argument could be made with the Adapted Screenplay victory. However, none of the other four nominees in this category were BP nominees (extraordinarily rare). Call could’ve heard its name up, but I have it sixth or seventh.
Darkest Hour
Gary Oldman as Winston Churchill was a recipe for a Best Actor win and it was up for Production Design, Cinematography, Makeup and Hairstyling (another victory), and Costume Design.
Does It Make the Final Five?
No. Despite its admirable turn in the tech derbies, this was all about Oldman. The lack of directing, screenplay, and editing noms leave this out. This is the rare occurrence where I’m saying the Best Actor winner’s movie doesn’t get in the BP race.
Dunkirk
Christopher Nolan’s epic WWII tale earned 8 mentions (2nd behind Shape) and won 3 – both Sound races and Film Editing. Nolan also scored his first and only directing nod.
Does It Make the Final Five?
Yes. I don’t think it’s 100% considering other contenders, but this probably had enough support and was generally considered Nolan’s strongest awards pic in his filmography.
Get Out
Jordan Peele’s heralded horror flick was a box office smash. Its other three nominations were Director, Actor (Daniel Kaluuya), and Original Screenplay where it beat out Shape of Water.
Does It Make the Final Five?
Yes. Like Dunkirk, not a guarantee but that screenplay statue (over the BP recipient and two other contenders) make me think so.
Lady Bird
Greta Gerwig’s coming-of-age dramedy nabbed 5 inclusions with Director, Actress (Saoirse Ronan), Supporting Actress (Laurie Metcalf), and Original Screenplay.
Does It Make the Final Five?
Yes. Broken record… not a slam dunk considering it went 0 for 5. Yet it took the Golden Globe for Musical/Comedy (over Get Out) and was highly acclaimed.
Phantom Thread
Paul Thomas Anderson’s sartorial drama was an overachiever on nomination morning with six including Director, Actor (Daniel Day-Lewis), Supporting Actress (Lesley Manville), Score, and Costume Design (the sole win).
Does It Make the Final Five?
No, but I was tempted. It really did perform better than anticipated. I could also see it just missing considering the competition. It might have been sixth.
The Post
Steven Spielberg’s Watergate era drama received only one other nom for Meryl Streep in Actress.
Does It Make the Final Five?
No and this is by far the easiest projection. Spielberg’s magic probably got it in the mix, but I suspect it was ninth.
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
A player in 7 categories, Martin McDonagh’s pic took home Actress (Frances McDormand) and Supporting Actor (Sam Rockwell). Woody Harrelson was also up for Supporting Actor in addition to Original Screenplay, Score, and Film Editing.
Does It Make the Final Five?
Yes, even with McDonagh missing Director. If for no other reason, I can’t imagine the four acting winners having none of their movies up. That would be the case if you left this off considering Oldman’s Darkest Hour and I, Tonya (where Allison Janney took Supporting Actress) not being in the nine.
If you weren’t keeping score, here’s my projected 2017 five:
Drawing on his own upbringing, Steven Spielberg’s coming-of-age drama The Fabelmans opens semi-wide over the long Turkey Day frame. After its September premiere at the Toronto Film Festival, the film has been seen as a major Oscar contender with a Rotten Tomatoes score of 94%. Newcomer Gabriel LaBelle (essentially playing young Spielberg), Michelle Williams, Paul Dano, Seth Rogen, Judd Hirsch, and Julia Butters are among the ensemble.
The ode to family and cinema debuted November 11th on four screens with a fair though not impressive $40,000 per theaters average. That’s a little under what fellow awards hopeful The Banshees of Inisherin made in the same amount of venues a few weeks back.
Spielberg’s most personal work to date expands to approximately 600 screens on Wednesday, November 23rd. That meager count could mean a floor as low as $2 million for the three-day and $3 million for the five-day (if it goes any lower that would be considered a massive flop). A rosier picture could mean $5-6 million for Friday to Sunday and higher single digits when factoring in Wednesday and Thursday.
My gut says to be on the lower end of that scale as it’ll hope for solid holds throughout the holidays.
The Fabelmans opening weekend prediction: $2.8 million (Friday to Sunday); $4.1 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
One of the last significant pieces of the 2022 Oscar puzzle has come into sharper focus with Damien Chazelle’s Babylon. The 188 minute epic set in late 1920s Hollywood has screened for industry and critics and reaction is wildly divergent. Some posts are calling it a triumph while others proclaim it a grotesque mess. One thing seems certain – this one will get a whole lotta chatter leading up to its December 23rd release. One other thing – the buzz below could change with more screenings as we get closer to the premiere.
Newcomer Diego Calva headlines a cast that includes Margot Robbie, Brad Pitt, Jovan Adepo, Li Jun Li, Jean Smart, and Tobey Maguire. While the review embargo won’t lift for a bit, the all over the map chatter raises some questions for its awards viability.
Chazelle has a sterling track record with voters. His first two features – 2014’s Whiplash and 2016’s La La Land – were both Best Picture nominees (the latter rather famously losing to Moonlight). Chazelle did take the Director prize for La La. On the other hand, 2018’s First Man underperformed at the box office and with the Academy (its four nods were all in tech categories).
So it’s a given that Babylon has (sight unseen) sat high on the projections of prognosticators for months. First things first. This won’t end the streak of Chazelle’s movies getting nominations. It’s a major possibility in numerous below the line competitions like Cinematography, Costume Design, Makeup and Hairstyling, Production Design, Score, and Sound. Film Editing is one that could be contingent on a BP nod.
Will it get there for the biggest race? I think it still probably makes the cut. Yet Paramount might be feeling that Top Gun: Maverick is now their ace contender. The studio has had such a solid year that both could get in. There’s been some comparisons to The Wolf of Wall Street with the running time and frequent debauchery. That was a BP hopeful in 2013. For another Leo pic reference, Don’t Look Up was up last year and it too garnered severely mixed reviews.
I suspect I’ll still have Babylon in my top 10 when I updated my projections this weekend. I’ve had it listed 3rd for weeks and I would anticipate that ranking will drop. Chazelle is unlikely to be my #2 where he’s sat behind Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans) for awhile. I’m not completely sure he’ll be in my estimated quintet.
As for the actors – Robbie is getting a lot of praise thus far as is Calva. Best Actress, as I’ve noted a lot on here, is packed this year. I believe Cate Blanchett (Tár), Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once), and Danielle Deadwyler (Till) are currently top 3 in the race and there’s a handful of others vying for spots 4-5. That includes Robbie and I still believe she stands a realistic shot. So does Calva and that may be due to Actor being pretty weak this year. His inclusion is far from guaranteed, but he could nab a fourth or fifth slot like his costar. While Pitt is getting decent notices, I’m less convinced he’s in for Supporting Actor.
Bottom line: Babylon doesn’t seem like a threat to win Best Picture and it’s questionable whether it even gets in. Acting nods are feasible but not assured. Tech noms are inevitable. My Oscar prediction posts will continue…
Over the past week, I posted deep dives into 6 major categories: Picture, Director, and the four acting derbies. If you missed them, you can access them right there:
The numbers for those competitions are reflected below (therefore you won’t see Previous Rankings for them). For every other race, these are projections updated for the first time since October 23rd.
There’s less than two months left in the calendar year! We’re entering crunch time and here’s my state of the races as we sprint to the finish…
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Fabelmans
2. Everything Everywhere All at Once
3. Babylon
4. Women Talking
5. The Banshees of Inisherin
6. Top Gun: Maverick
7. Tár
8. The Whale
9. Triangle of Sadness
10. She Said
Other Possibilities:
11. All Quiet on the Western Front
12. Decision to Leave
13. Avatar: The Way of Water
14. Elvis
15. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1 . Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans
2. Damien Chazelle, Babylon
3. Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once
4. Sarah Polley, Women Talking
5. Todd Field, Tár
Other Possibilities:
6. Edward Berger, All Quiet on the Western Front
7. Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave
8. Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin
9. James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water
10. Ruben Ostlund, Triangle of Sadness
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Cate Blanchett, Tár
2. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once
3. Danielle Deadwyler, Till
4. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans
5. Margot Robbie, Babylon
Other Possibilities:
6. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light
7. Naomi Ackie, I Wanna Dance with Somebody
8. Viola Davis, The Woman King
9. Jennifer Lawrence, Causeway
10. Rooney Mara, Women Talking
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Brendan Fraser, The Whale
2. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin
3. Austin Butler, Elvis
4. Bill Nighy, Living
5. Hugh Jackman, The Son
Other Possibilities:
6. Diego Calva, Babylon
7. Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick
8. Jeremy Pope, The Inspection
9. Adam Driver, White Noise
10. Paul Mescal, Aftersun
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1 . Claire Foy, Women Talking
2. Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin
3. Jessie Buckley, Women Talking
4. Hong Chau, The Whale
5. Carey Mulligan, She Said
Other Possibilities:
6. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once
7. Dolly De Leon, Triangle of Sadness
8. Nina Hoss, Tár
9. Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once
10. Jean Smart, Babylon
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1 . Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once
2. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin
3. Ben Whishaw, Women Talking
4. Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans
5. Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin
Other Possibilities:
6. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans
7. Brad Pitt, Babylon
8. Mark Rylance, Bones & All
9. Woody Harrelson, Triangle of Sadness
10. Eddie Redmayne, The Good Nurse
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (+1)
3. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 4) (E)
5. Tár (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Babylon (PR: 6) (E)
7. Decision to Leave (PR: 7) (E)
8. Aftersun (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Broker (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Menu (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Armageddon Time
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Women Talking (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Whale (PR: 2) (E)
3. She Said (PR: 3) (E)
4. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 4) (E)
5. Living (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. White Noise (PR: 6) (E)
7. Bones & All (PR: 7) (E)
8. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 8) (E)
9. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: Not Ranked)
10. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
The Son
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 1) (E)
2. Turning Red (PR: 2) (E)
3. Wendell and Wild (PR: 3) (E)
4. Strange World (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Bad Guys (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Marcel the Shell with Shoes On (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Sea Beast (PR: 6) (-1)
8. My Father’s Dragon (PR: 8) (E)
9. Lightyear (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Minions: The Rise of Gru (PR: 9) (-1)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Decision to Leave (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Close (PR: 3) (E)
4. Bardo (PR: 4) (E)
5. Saint Omer (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Klondike (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Holy Spider (PR: 7) (E)
8. Argentina, 1985 (PR: 6) (-2)
9. EO (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Alcarras (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (PR: 1) (E)
2. Descendant (PR: 2) (E)
3. Navalny (PR: 3) (E)
4. All That Breathes (PR: 4) (E)
5. Last Flight Home (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Fire of Love (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Territory (PR: 7) (E)
8. Moonage Daydream (PR: 8) (E)
9. Good Night Oppy (PR: 9) (E)
10. Sr. (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Aftershock
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)
3. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 6) (+3)
4. Empire of Light (PR: 3) (-1)
5. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Bardo (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 8) (+1)
8. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Tár
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Elvis (PR: 2) (E)
3. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 3) (E)
4. Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Woman King (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Living (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Fabelmans (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Three Thousand Years of Longing (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Corsage (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 10) (E)
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)
2. Babylon (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 2) (-1)
4. The Fabelmans (PR: 4) (E)
5. Women Talking (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Elvis (PR: 5) (-1)
7. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Decision to Leave (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Tár
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Whale (PR: 1) (E)
2. Babylon (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Elvis (PR: 2) (-1)
4. The Batman (PR: 4) (E)
5. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 5) (-1)
7. X (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Three Thousand Years of Longing (PR: 8) (E)
9. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 7) (-1)
10. The Woman King (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)
2. Babylon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Empire of Light (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Women Talking (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tár (PR: 6) (E)
7. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Bardo (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 8) (-1)
10. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 10 (E)
Dropped Out:
The Batman
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)
2. “Lift Me Up” from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: Not Ranked)
3. “Naatu Naatu” from RRR (PR: 2) (-1)
4. “Nobody Like U” from Turning Red (PR: 3) (-1)
5. “This Is a Life” from Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Applause” from Tell It Like a Woman (PR: 4) (-2)
7. “Stand Up” from Till (PR: 7) (E)
8. “Carolina” from Where the Crawdads Sing (PR: 5) (-3)
9. “New Body Rhumba” from White Noise (PR: 8) (-1)
10. “Ciao Papa” from Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
“On My Way” from Marry Me
“At the Automat” from The Automat
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Elvis (PR: 2) (-2)
5. The Fabelmans (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Empire of Light (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 9) (E)
10. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Bardo
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)
2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 2) (E)
3. Babylon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 7) (+3)
5. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Batman (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Elvis (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Fabelmans (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Nope (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Tár
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 1) (E)
2. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 2) (E)
3. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 3) (E)
4. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Batman (PR: 6) (E)
7. RRR (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (PR: 5) (-3)
9. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 9) (E)
10. Good Night Oppy (PR: 10) (E)
That equates to these movies garnering these numbers in terms of nominations:
10 Nominations
Babylon
9 Nominations
The Fabelmans
8 Nominations
Everything Everywhere All at Once, Women Talking
7 Nominations
The Banshees of Inisherin
6 Nominations
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
5 Nominations
Top Gun: Maverick, The Whale
4 Nominations
Avatar: The Way of Water, Elvis, Tár
3 Nominations
All Quiet on the Western Front, She Said
2 Nominations
Empire of Light, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Living, Triangle of Sadness, Turning Red
1 Nomination
All That Breathes, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, The Bad Guys, Bardo, The Batman, Close, Decision to Leave, Descendant, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Last Flight Home, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris, Navalny, RRR, Saint Omer, The Son, Strange World, Till, The Woman King, Wendell and Wild
My deep dives into 6 high profile Oscar races reaches the top one with Best Picture. If you missed my posts on Director and the four acting competitions, you can find them here:
At this early November period from 2019-21, here’s how accurate I was with my BP forecast. Three years ago, I correctly called 8 of the 9 eventual nominees. That includes the winner Parasite, 1917, Ford v Ferrari, The Irishman, Jojo Rabbit, Little Women, Marriage Story, and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. The ninth hopeful was Joker and it was listed in Other Possibilities. In the wildly unpredictable 2020, I was right about 5 of 8 with two months left in the calendar – Nomadland (which won), The Father, Mank, Minari, and The Trial of the Chicago 7. Judas and the Black Messiah was named in Other Possibilities while Promising Young Woman and Sound of Metal were not yet in my top 15. In 2021, the Academy went back to a set number of 10 BP nominees. I rightly identified 7 of the 10 with Belfast, Dune, King Richard, Licorice Pizza, Nightmare Alley, The Power of the Dog, and West Side Story. The film that emerged victorious – CODA was not yet predicted but in Other Possibilities. So was Don’t Look Up while Drive My Car wasn’t among the 15.
Moving to 2022 – I can’t recall a year where four sequels were viable for inclusion. That’s where we stand at the moment. The top grosser of the year is Top Gun: Maverick and I do believe the Academy will reward it for bringing older audiences back to multiplexes (and of course for its quality). In a few weeks, we’ll have a better idea about Avatar: The Way of Water. I’m not ready to vault into my ten, but that could change soon. Knives Out missed out on BP in 2019 so I’m skeptical for Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery. And while Black Panther made the lineup in 2018, Wakanda Forever seems like a stretch despite the solid buzz. Nevertheless it’s not crazy to think that 40% of the BP players could be sequels.
On the non-sequel front, we begin with The Fabelmans. Steven Spielberg’s autobiographical coming-of-age tale has been listed at #1 for weeks on the blog. Only one of the filmmaker’s works – 1993’s Schindler’s List – has won BP. Shakespeare in Love was a surprise recipient in 1998 over the favored Saving Private Ryan. Nearly 30 years later, Fabelmans could have the credentials to be the second.
However, the frontrunner at this stage often doesn’t cross the finish line and Spielberg’s latest feels like a soft frontrunner. I could easily envision a scenario where the voters go outside the box with Everything Everywhere All at Once. A24’s multi-genre pic achieved wide acclaim and did great business at the box office. While spring releases rarely make the journey all the way through the awards calendar, Everything could buck that trend.
Other spoilers include The Banshees of Inisherin and Women Talking, which both garnered kudos at film festivals and will have their ardent admirers. I believe that logic also applies to Tár and The Whale though I don’t see either having a shot to win. And we are still waiting to see if Damien Chazelle’s Babylon is as viable as its pedigree suggests (we’ll know in a few days when it screens).
It’s become more common for an international feature film to get in and the two most likely to do so are All Quiet on the Western Front (which might just be Netflix’s most serious hopeful) and Decision to Leave. The reviews for Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu’s Bardo should leave it out (it might not even make the separate international race).
While Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio is the favorite to be Best Animated Feature, I don’t see it breaking into the big dance. It’s probably the only animated title with any sort of chance.
The festival circuit always lessens the viability of some pics. In 2022, I would put the following on that list: Empire of Light, The Son, and Armageddon Time.
The Academy could choose to honor some moneymakers like Elvis and The Woman King (though putting Maverick in could check that box). Till may only show up in Best Actress for Danielle Deadwyler. And it’s tough to know what to make of the upcoming Emancipation considering it’s led by Will Smith (who has some, um, recent history with the ceremony).
Bottom line: there is a lot of uncertainty about BP. I feel fairly confident about The Fabelmans, Everything Everywhere, Women Talking, The Banshees of Inisherin, Top Gun: Maverick,Tár, and The Whale (more than others with that one). We’ll know about Babylon shortly so that leaves two spots. I could definitely see a sequel or a foreign flick jumping up. For now, the 9th and 10th entries go to Triangle of Sadness and She Said. Expect movement as the weeks roll along.
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1 . The Fabelmans (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)
3. Babylon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Women Talking (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 5) (E)
6. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 6) (E)
7. Tár (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Whale (PR: 8) (E)
9. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 9) (E)
10. She Said (PR: 12) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
11. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 11) (E)
12. Decision to Leave (PR: 10) (-2)
13. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 14) (+1)
14. Elvis (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 15) (E)
Stay tuned for estimates on all the races coming up soon!
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