StarWars: TheLast Jedi is an experience of seemingly big moments in the most famous and loved franchise in history. There are instances of enormous satisfaction here and smaller developments and touches that work.
Jedi is also a little deceiving. When the credits rolled, I slowly began to realize the seismic occurrences witnessed weren’t necessarily all that. There are major developments with some historic characters, but there’s also examples of stagnation with some principals and truly furthering the action along. There is no other series of pictures where the positive aspects are magnified to legendary status and the flaws are portrayed as crimes against humanity. If Jar Jar Binks were to be tried in a court of fanatics, his demise would come slowly and with pain.
In the cycle of endless chatter that accompanies each episode, the 8th appears primed to garner both emotions. To this writer, some of its shortcomings were more obvious than what we saw in episode VII, TheForceAwakens.
The knock on Awakens was simple and I believe mostly misguided. When J.J. Abrams and Disney took over the reigns from George Lucas, complaints were registered that it was essentially a remake of the 1977 original. This is a fair point to a small degree but I walked away from Awakens highly energized and quite pleased with the new crop of characters mixed with the ones we’ve grown up with. I didn’t feel it was just an effective ripening of our collective member berries. It stood on its own.
When we last left our heroine Rey (Daisy Ridley), she was standing on a lush mountain top seeking the help of one Luke Skywalker (Mark Hamill). An Awakens surprise was that Luke loomed in the story, but didn’t say a word and didn’t appear until the final frames. He’s present here and he’s plenty conflicted about whether he wants to help his Force bearing wannabe apprentice. While Daisy and Luke work all that out, Chewbacca gets to hang out with seriously adorable creatures called Porgs. They’ll make great Christmas toys.
Meanwhile, Finn (John Boyega) awakens from his slumber caused in the previous installment to befriend Rose (Kelly Marie Tran), a maintenance worker who becomes his right-hand girl. Poe (Oscar Isaac) is still the cocky fighter pilot who drives his superiors crazy. They include Princess Leia (Carrie Fisher) and another high ranking official played by Laura Dern.
Of course, there’s also the First Order. Kylo Ren (Adam Driver), who made his mom a widow, is back. He’s still experiencing family conflict drama that would probably keep his ship’s psychiatrist busy if there was one. Kylo is still under the command of Supreme Leader Snoke (Andy Serkis) and he’s developed a telepathic type communication with Ren. It’s their dynamic that gives Jedi some of its most significant and powerful moments. Much credit is due to the superb work of Ridley and Driver, which was the case the first time around.
Not all character arcs work as well. It mostly does with Luke and Jedi features Hamill’s most convincing work as Luke. Isaac’s Poe is still a bit of a one trick pony, but the talented actor is granted more screen time to shine. Boyega’s Finn is sidelined with subpar subplots. He’s also saddled by teaming up with a thief played by Benicio del Toro. The Oscar winning actor plays his role so over the top that it’s a tad distracting. I’d say the same for Domhnall Gleeson as First Order General Hux. Finn and company have a whole segment on a new planet filled with degenerates and a lush casino. A triumph of production design, yes, but it also felt like filler.
TheLastJedi has a lot of humor in it, more so that I expected from its new director Rian Johnson. The reliance of it may disappoint some die hards, but I found most of it welcome. By its nature, some of the most dramatic moments succeed just because they’re present. Luke walking into the Falcon? Check. Luke and Leia reuniting after years apart? Check. So for those who complained about episode VII’s nostalgia peddling, it’s a bit unavoidable I say.
Bottom line: my LastJedi reaction was a little more mixed than when I saw Awakens. It’s easily better than anything Lucas gave us in episodes I-III. For those hoping this would be the Empire of the new trilogy, you can transfer that hope to IX.
Blogger’s Note (12/20/17): I am revising my PP3 estimate from $40.6 million for the four-day to $33.6 million.
The Bellas are back for the holidays as PitchPerfect3 hits theaters next Friday. Anna Kendrick, Rebel Wilson, Hailee Steinfeld, Brittany Snow, Anna Camp, Alexis Knapp, and Hana Mae Lee are among returnees alongside Elizabeth Banks and John Michael Higgins. Newcomers to the series include Ruby Rose and John Lithgow. Trish Sie directs.
The 2012 original was a sleeper hit which grossed $65 million and then became more of a sensation once it became available for home viewing. The summer 2015 sequel shocked all prognosticators with a $69 million opening weekend (topping its predecessor’s entire domestic run) and $184 million overall.
It’s no surprise therefore that Universal Pictures wanted a third helping of accapella comedy. Two and a half years later, Pitch3 faces competition even in its own musical genre with Hugh Jackman’s TheGreatestShowman debuting two days prior. That said, the Bellas appear to have a built-in audience and it could be dangerous to underestimate them.
I still believe Pitch2 could turn out to be the high water mark in the franchise. A debut in the low to mid 40s would probably put part 3 in the #3 spot behind the second weekend of StarWars and the first for Jumanji: WelcometotheJungle. Yet with its reported smallish budget of $45 million, that should still be music to the studio’s ears.
PitchPerfect3 opening weekend prediction: $33.6 million (Friday to Monday estimate)
For my Jumanji: WelcometotheJungle prediction, click here:
The most eagerly anticipated review embargo of 2017 ended early this afternoon as critical reaction is pouring in for Star Wars: The Last Jedi. Opening Friday, it’s pretty much a foregone conclusion that episode VIII of the vaunted franchise will generate the year’s biggest debut (and very possibly the second highest of all time after predecessor The Force Awakens).
So my attention now turns to its Oscar viability. At this moment, The Last Jedi stands at 93% on Rotten Tomatoes. That’s quite an impressive number (Force Awakens ended up at 93%) and it’s likely the Jedi number will fluctuate over the next couple of days. Still, many reviews have indicated it’s the strongest entry in the series since 1980’s The Empire Strikes Back – generally and rightfully considered the best of the lot. Other reviews, while positive, haven’t gone that far.
It’s worth noting that only the 1977 original managed a Best Picture nomination. Simply put, I don’t see that changing here nor do I see any of the actors getting recognition.
The Force Awakens ended up garnering five nods two years ago: Original Score, Editing, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, and Visual Effects. It won zero. My estimate is that Jedi will not reach that number. Composer John Williams will face competition with himself and I see his work for Steven Spielberg’s The Post being nominated instead. Editing could be a stretch as some reviewers are already nitpicking its pacing. It could certainly nab nominations in both Sound categories and Visual Effects is a given. Like Force Awakens, I believe it won’t emerge victorious in any of the races it gets in for.
Bottom line: Star Wars: The Last Jedi, even with its general consensus that it improves over Awakens, is unlikely to be an Academy player in any significant manner other than technical stuff.
Blogger’s Note (12/20/17): My Jumanji prediction has been lowered.
Even with the considerable competition including the second weekend of StarWars: TheLastJedi, animated fare like Ferdinand and Coco, and a slew of other holiday wide releases, Jumanji: WelcometotheJungle looks primed for a healthy box office haul. The board game related comedic adventure follows up on the 1995 Robin Williams hit with a cast that includes Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson, Kevin Hart, Jack Black, Karen Gillan, Bobby Cannavale, and Nick Jonas. Jake Kasdan directs.
It doesn’t hurt that Johnson and Hart are two of the more bankable stars around (their collaboration CentralIntelligence was a blockbuster). It also helps that the wealth is usually spread around on Christmas weekend. Jumanji debuts on Wednesday next week as it looks to play well throughout the long weekend frame.
Kids should turn out if they’re not clamoring to see Jedi a second time. The X factor here that makes me believe it could over perform? It’s garnering surprisingly solid buzz with a Rotten Tomatoes score currently at 82%. An even more important factor could be the nostalgia one as older moviegoers are quite familiar with the 22-year-old original. We already have witnessed how that dynamic propelled JurassicWorld to amazing numbers.
Jumanji will be no Jurassic, but I certainly believe a four-day take in the mid 40s and mid 60s six-day take is quite doable. That should put it in second after Jedi for the holidays.
Jumanji: WelcometotheJungle opening weekend prediction: $40.5 million (Friday to Monday), $55.1 million (Wednesday to Monday)
For my The Greatest Showman prediction, click here:
As the weekend approaches, the burning box office questions are clear:
How will the animated Ferdinand open after Pixar’s Coco has dominated the charts for three weeks straight?
Could Wonder jump above Justice League as they enter their fifth respective weekends?
How well will The Disaster Artist hold after an impressive 800 theater expansion?
Oh… who am I kidding? We all know what this weekend is really about…
Star Wars: The Last Jedi freaking opens!!! After The Force Awakens crushed every box office record in sight two years ago, anticipation is mighty high for episode VIII. You can read my detailed prediction on it and Ferdinand here:
As you can see, I have Jedi slated for the second biggest domestic debut of all time behind its predecessor. My estimate puts it about $28 million shy of Awakens.
My take on Ferdinand is that it will get close to $20 million (it could surpass it) for a solid second place showing as it will may play well into the holiday frames ahead.
The rest of the top 6 should be filled with leftovers as a handful of high-profile titles open in the approaching Christmas weekend.
Here’s my top 6 projections:
1. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Predicted Gross: $219.7 million
2. Ferdinand
Predicted Gross: $18.6 milion
3. Coco
Predicted Gross: $11.2 million (representing a drop of 39%)
4. Wonder
Predicted Gross: $4.9 million (representing a drop of 43%)
5. TheDisasterArtist
Predicted Gross: $4.3 million (representing a drop of 34%)
6. Justice League
Predicted Gross: $4.3 million (representing a drop of 55%)
Box Office Results (December 8-10)
It was the quiet before the Force this weekend as Coco remained #1 for the third weekend in a row with $18.4 million, right on pace with my $18.3 million forecast. The Pixar effort has amassed $135 million total.
Justice League was second with $9.6 million (a bit above my $8.2 million prediction) as it’s earned $212 million overall.
Wonder placed third with $8.4 million (I said $7.6 million) as it crossed the century mark at $100 million.
The Disaster Artist received a nice expansion with a fourth place showing at $6.3 million, ahead of my $4.2 million projection.
Thor: Ragnarok rounded out the top five with $6.2 million (I said $6.5 million) as it blew past the triple century mark at $301 million.
Finally, the Morgan Freeman/Tommy Lee Jones comedy Just Getting Started sputtered in 10th place with just $3.2 million – not matching my generous $5.2 million prediction.
Back at it again with my weekly Oscar predictions. There’s been a host of precursor activity in the past week with the biggest coming this morning as the Golden Globe nominations were announced.
The verdict? The five nominated Best Drama contenders are all very likely Oscar competitors – Dunkirk, The Shape of Water, The Post, Three Billboards, Call Me by Your Name. In the Comedy category, both Lady Bird and Get Out got in as expected.
Speaking of Get Out, this week marks its first inclusion in my estimated nine contenders. In fact, it vaults four spots up to #7. Something had to come out and it was Darkest Hour, whose luster seems to be fading.
Another Globe surprise: the strong showing for All the Money in the World. Reviews have yet to come, but it was nominated for Director (Ridley Scott), Actress in Drama (Michelle Williams), and Supporting Actor (Christopher Plummer, who famously took over the role from the embattled Kevin Spacey). All three debut on the lower rung on my predictions.
In other developments:
Richard Jenkins (The Shape of Water) is in for Supporting Actor over Mark Rylance (Dunkirk)
Two changes in Supporting Actress with Melissa Leo (Novitiate) and Hong Chau (Downsizing) in over Octavia Spencer (The Shape of Water) and Lesley Manville (Phantom Thread)
In the Screenplay races, Wonder is in for Adapted over Wonderstruck while in the crowded Original Screenplay category, The Shape of Water is back in over Phantom Thread
Read on!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Lady Bird (PR: 3)
3. The Shape of Water (PR: 4)
4. The Post (PR: 2)
5. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 5)
6. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 6)
7. Get Out (PR: 11)
8. The Florida Project (PR: 9)
9. Phantom Thread (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
10. Darkest Hour (PR: 8)
11. Mudbound (PR: 10)
12. I, Tonya (PR: 12)
13. Detroit (PR: 13)
14. All the Money in the World (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 14)
Dropped Out:
The Disaster Artist
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water (PR: 2)
3. Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird (PR: 3)
4. Steven Spielberg, The Post (PR: 4)
5. Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Luca Guadagnino, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 6)
7. Jordan Peele, Get Out (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread (PR: 7)
9. Dee Rees, Mudbound (PR: 8)
10. Ridley Scott, All the Money in the World (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Sean Baker, The Florida Project
Joe Wright, Darkest Hour
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour (PR: 1)
2. Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread (PR: 2)
3. Timothee Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 3)
4. James Franco, The Disaster Artist (PR: 4)
5. Tom Hanks, The Post (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Hugh Jackman, The Greatest Showman (PR: 7)
7. Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Jake Gyllenhaal, Stronger (PR: 6)
9. Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq. (PR: 9)
10. Andrew Garfield, Breathe (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Robert Pattinson, Good Time
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird (PR: 1)
2. Meryl Streep, The Post (PR: 2)
3. Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 3)
4. Margot Robbie, I, Tonya (PR: 4)
5. Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game (PR: 6)
7. Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 7)
8. Judi Dench, Victoria and Abdul (PR: 9)
9. Kate Winslet, Wonder Wheel (PR: 8)
10. Michelle Williams, All the Money in the World (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Vicky Krieps, Phantom Thread
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project (PR: 1)
2. Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 2)
3. Armie Hammer, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 3)
4. Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 4)
5. Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mark Rylance, Dunkirk (PR: 5)
7. Michael Shannon, The Shape of Water (PR: 6)
8. Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 8)
9. Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Jason Mitchell, Mudbound (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Steve Carell, Battle of the Sexes
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird (PR: 2)
2. Allison Janney, I, Tonya (PR: 1)
3. Mary J. Blige, Mudbound (PR: 4)
4. Melissa Leo, Novitiate (PR: 6)
5. Hong Chau, Downsizing (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water (PR: 5)
7. Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread (PR: 3)
8. Holly Hunter, The Big Sick (PR: 9)
9. Tiffany Haddish, Girls Trip (PR: 10)
10. Lois Smith, Marjorie Prime (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Kristin Scott Thomas, Darkest Hour
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 1)
2. The Disaster Artist (PR: 2)
3. Mudbound (PR: 3)
4. Molly’s Game (PR: 4)
5. Wonder (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wonderstruck (PR: 5)
7. All the Money in the World (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Last Flag Flying (PR: 6)
9. The Beguiled (PR: 9)
10. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Victoria and Abdul
First, They Killed My Father
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Lady Bird (PR: 2)
2. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 1)
3. Get Out (PR: 5)
4. The Post (PR: 4)
5. The Shape of Water (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Phantom Thread (PR: 3)
7. The Florida Project (PR: 7)
8. I, Tonya (PR: 8)
9. The Big Sick (PR: 9)
10. Dunkirk (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Darkest Hour
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Coco (PR: 1)
2. The Breadwinner (PR: 3)
3. Loving Vincent (PR: 2)
4. Cars 3 (PR: 5)
5. The Girl Without Hands (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. The LEGO Batman Movie (PR: 6)
7. Birdboy: The Forgotten Children (PR: 4)
8. Despicable Me 3 (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The Boss Baby (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Big Bad Fox and Other Tales (PR: 7)
Dropped Out:
Ferdinand
Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie
In this Corner of the World
Best Foreign Language Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Foxtrot (PR: 2)
2. BPM (Beats Per Minute) (PR: 1)
3. The Square (PR: 7)
4. First, They Killed My Father (PR: 3)
5. Loveless (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. A Fantastic Woman (PR: 6)
7. In the Fade (PR: 4)
8. The Insult (PR: 5)
9. Thelma (PR: 9)
10. The Divine Order (PR: 10)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Jane (PR: 1)
2. Faces Places (PR: 5)
3. City of Ghosts (PR: 3)
4. Long Strange Trip (PR: 7)
5. Strong Island (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. An Inconvenient Sequel: Truth to Power (PR: Not Ranked)
7. One of Us (PR: 9)
8. Abacus: Small Enough to Jail (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Chasing Coral (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Cries from Syria
Icarus
Risk
Kedi
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. The Post (PR: 2)
3. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)
4. Lady Bird (PR: 5)
5. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. I, Tonya (PR: 6)
7. Get Out (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Darkest Hour (PR: 8)
9. Call Me by Your Name (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Detroit (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Phantom Thread
Blade Runner 2049
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)
3. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)
4. The Post (PR: 4)
5. Wonderstruck (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Darkest Hour (PR: 5)
7. Mudbound (PR: 8)
8. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 7)
9. Lady Bird (PR: 9)
10. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 10)
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)
3. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 3)
4. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 5)
5. Phantom Thread (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Post (PR: 7)
7. The Greatest Showman (PR: 9)
8. Wonderstruck (PR: 8)
9. Darkest Hour (PR: 6)
10. Murder on the Orient Express (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Phantom Thread (PR: 1)
2. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 2)
3. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)
4. The Post (PR: 4)
5. The Greatest Showman (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Darkest Hour (PR: 5)
7. The Beguiled (PR: 7)
8. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 8)
9. Wonderstruck (PR: 10)
10. Murder on the Orient Express (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Wonder Wheel
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Darkest Hour (PR: 1)
2. Phantom Thread (PR: 5)
3. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 2)
Other Possibilities:
4. Wonder (PR: 9)
5. I, Tonya (PR: 6)
6. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (PR: 3)
7. The Shape of Water (PR: 4)
8. The Greatest Showman (PR: 7)
9. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 8)
10. It (PR: 10)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 1)
2. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)
3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 4)
4. War for the Planet of the Apes (PR: 3)
5. Dunkirk (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 6)
7. Spider-Man: Homecoming (PR: 7)
8. Wonder Woman (PR: 9)
9. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (PR: 8)
10. Thor: Ragnarok (PR: 10)
Best Sound Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)
3. The Shape of Water (PR: 5)
4. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 3)
5. War for the Planet of the Apes (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Baby Driver (PR: 6)
7. Wonder Woman (PR: 7)
8. Detroit (PR: 10)
9. The Post (PR: 8)
10. The Greatest Showman (PR: 9)
Best Sound Mixing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)
3. The Shape of Water (PR: 7)
4. Baby Driver (PR: 3)
5. The Greatest Showman (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 6)
7. War for the Planet of the Apes (PR: 8)
8. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 10)
9. Detroit (PR: 5)
10. Transformers: The Last Knight (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Post
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Phantom Thread (PR: 2)
2. The Shape of Water (PR: 1)
3. Dunkirk (PR: 3)
4. The Post (PR: 4)
5. Darkest Hour (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 10)
7. Wonderstruck (PR: 6)
8. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 7)
9. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 9)
10. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 8)
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Remember Me” from Coco (PR: 1)
2. “Stand Up for Something” from Marshall (PR: 2)
3. “Mighty River” from Mudbound (PR: Not Ranked)
4. “Evermore” from Beauty and the Beast (PR: 4)
5. “The Mystery of Love” from Call Me by Your Name (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Prayers for this World” from Cries from Syria (PR: 3)
7. “It Ain’t Fair” from Detroit (PR: 7)
8. “I Don’t Wanna Live Forever” from Fifty Shades Darker (PR: 6)
9. “This is Me” from The Greatest Showman (PR: Not Ranked)
10. “Truth to Power” from An Inconvenient Sequel: Truth to Power (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
“Come Alive” from The Greatest Showman
“The Promise” from The Promise
And that break down for the following number of nominations for each picture:
13 Nominations
The Shape of Water
9 Nominations
Dunkirk, The Post
6 Nominations
Phantom Thread, Lady Bird, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, Call Me by Your Name
5 Nominations
Blade Runner 2049
4 Nominations
Beauty and the Beast
3 Nominations
Darkest Hour, Mudbound
2 Nominations
Get Out, The Florida Project, The Disaster Artist, I, Tonya, Coco, The Greatest Showman, Star Wars: The Last Jedi, War for the Planet of the Apes
1 Nomination
Novitiate, Downsizing, Molly’s Game, Wonder, Wonderstruck, Baby Driver, Marshall, The Breadwinner, Loving Vincent, Cars 3, The Girl Without Hands, Foxtrot, BPM (Beats Per Minute), The Square, First, They Killed My Father, Loveless, Jane, Faces Places, City of Ghosts, Long Strange Trip, Strong Island
Next Friday, the makers of the animated Ferdinand hope to siphon some youngsters and their parents away from Star Wars: The Last Jedi. The 20th Century Fox title (which happens to be the former studio of Luke Skywalker and company) is based on the 1936 children’s novel The Story of Ferdinand, which tells the tale of a kindly bull. John Cena provides the voice of said bull with Kate McKinnon, Anthony Anderson, Bobby Cannavale, Gina Rodriguez, and Peyton Manning also lending their sounds. Carlos Saldanha, who made some of the Ice Age and Rio features, directs.
Competition is significant. Many kids should be preoccupied with Disney’s franchise juggernaut that opens the same day. And there’s also Coco, which should still be pulling in some coin in weekend #4.
That said, Fox employed a similar strategy two years ago when Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Road Chip opened directly opposite Star Wars: The Force Awakens. That gamble resulted in an OK $14.2 million debut yet it experienced small declines over the following holiday weekends.
Ferdinand has the benefit of not being at the tail end of a waning franchise, as Chipmunks was. That might cause it to make a bit more out of the gate and probably hold better in future frames. I’ll go high teens for its start.
Ferdinand opening weekend prediction: $18.6 million
For my Star Wars: The Last Jedi prediction, click here:
The cinematic event of 2017 invades theaters next Friday when StarWars: TheLastJedi debuts. The eighth episode of the beloved franchise arrives 40 years after the original changed the landscape of the moviegoing world. In more recent times, it is of course the sequel to 2015’s TheForceAwakens, which broke every box office record in its path. It had the biggest opening of all time and is the highest grossing picture of all time (not adjusted for inflation).
What J.J. Abrams started two December’s ago is continued here with Rian Johnson handling directorial duties (Abrams will be back for episode IX). Returnees from Awakens include Daisy Ridley, John Boyega, Oscar Isaac, Adam Driver, Andy Serkis, Anthony Daniels, Lupita Nyong’o, and Domhnall Gleeson. Of course, there’s also Mark Hamill back as Luke Skywalker and with considerably more screen time and Carrie Fisher as Princess Leia in her final performance. Familiar faces entering the StarWars universe for the first time include Benicio del Toro, Laura Dern, and Kelly Marie Tran.
TheForceAwakens obliterated the all-time opening weekend to the tune of $247 million with a $936 million eventual domestic haul. Anticipation for the follow-up is feverish. That said, Jedi is not expected to top its predecessor out of the gate. A more serious question is whether or not it will manage the second biggest stateside premiere in history.
First things first : it should not have trouble nabbing the 2017 record by sailing past another Disney title, BeautyandtheBeast at $174 million. And it will absolutely be the runner-up franchise opening, which currently is last year’s spin-off RogueOne: AStarWarsStory at $155 million.
In order to achieve the #2 debut, it will need to top the $208 million earned by JurassicWorld in 2015. I am predicting it will manage to get there with about $10 million to spare as it sets up for a long run over the holidays.
StarWars: TheLastJedi opening weekend prediction: $219.7 million
The second weekend of December at the box office may look similar to this past one with Pixar’s Coco atop the charts for the third time. Unlike this previous frame, there are some newcomers as the Morgan Freeman/Tommy Lee Jones geriatric comedy Just Getting Started debuts and James Franco’s critically heralded The Disaster Artist greatly expands its theater count. You can peruse my Just Getting Started detailed prediction here:
As I see it, Just Getting Started may be lucky to eek out a fifth place showing. The Disaster Artist could be a wild card, but if its estimated 800 screen expansion stands, I’ll put it at $4.2 million and outside the top 5. Should its theater count expand, so will my forecast for it.
All in all, it’s a rather quiet weekend. However, that won’t last long as Star Wars: The Last Jedi is on deck next weekend.
And with that, my top 5 projections for the weekend:
1. Coco
Predicted Gross: $18.3 million (representing a drop of 33%)
2. Justice League
Predicted Gross: $8.2 million (representing a drop of 50%)
3. Wonder
Predicted Gross: $7.6 million (representing a drop of 39%)
4. Thor: Ragnarok
Predicted Gross: $6.5 million (representing a drop of 34%)
5. Just Getting Started
Predicted Gross: $5.2 million
Box Office Results (December 1-3)
Coco ruled the top spot again with $27.5 million, a bit ahead of my $25.2 million projection. The Pixar pic has taken in $110 million since its Thanksgiving release.
Justice League was second once again at $16.6 million (in line with my $16.8 million prediction) for a total of $197 million.
Wonder took third with $12.1 million (a bit below my $14.4 million calculation) for $87 million overall.
Thor: Ragnarok was fourth with $9.8 million, topping my $7.7 million estimate for $291 million thus far.
Daddy’s Home 2 was fifth with $7.5 million (I was close at $7.1 million) for an $82 million overall gross.
Murder on the Orient Express was sixth with $6.7 million (I said $6.9 million) and it’s made $84 million.
And that does it for now, folks! I’ll be back Monday with full box office predictions for the following weekend and tomorrow I will post my detailed Star Wars: The Last Jedi opening weekend estimate!
Back at it again with my weekly Oscar predictions and in the last week, precursors such as the National Board of Review and New York and L.A. film critics have weighed in with their awards.
Here’s a snapshot of the significant changes this week:
The Florida Project replaces Mudbound in my predicted nine. There’s a decent chance the Dee Rees Netfix drama gets back in, but this is the first time I’ve had it on the outside looking in.
The Post vaults to the #2 position in Best Picture behind Dunkirk as Lady Bird flies to #3.
Tom Hanks in The Post jumps over Jake Gyllenhaal in Stronger for the fifth slot in Actor.
Two changes in the Supporting races as Mark Rylance (Dunkirk) jumps back in by replacing Michael Shannon (The Shape of Water). In Supporting Actress, it’s Octavia Spencer (Water) getting in with Melissa Leo (Novitiate) dropping out the top 5 for the first time.
Phantom Thread vaults into the top 5 in the jam packed Original Screenplay race, taking The Shape of Water out.
You can read them all below and we’ll see what changes a week from today…
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. The Post (PR: 7)
3. Lady Bird (PR: 4)
4. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)
5. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 3)
6. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 5)
7. Phantom Thread (PR: 9)
8. Darkest Hour (PR: 6)
9. The Florida Project (PR: 10)
Other Possibilities:
10. Mudbound (PR: 8)
11. Get Out (PR: 11)
12. I, Tonya (PR: 12)
13. Detroit (PR: 13)
14. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 15)
15. The Disaster Artist (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Battle of the Sexes
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water (PR: 2)
3. Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird (PR: 4)
4. Steven Spielberg, The Post (PR: 5)
5. Martin McDonagh, Three Bilboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Luca Guadagnino, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 8)
7. Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread (PR: 9)
8. Dee Rees, Mudbound (PR: 6)
9. Joe Wright, Darkest Hour (PR: 7)
10. Sean Baker, The Florida Project (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jordan Peele, Get Out
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour (PR: 1)
2. Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread (PR: 2)
3. Timothee Chalamet, CallMebyYourName (PR: 3)
4. James Franco, TheDisasterArtist (PR: 5)
5. Tom Hanks, The Post (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jake Gyllenhaal, Stronger (PR: 4)
7. Hugh Jackman, The Greatest Showman (PR: 10)
8. Andrew Garfield, Breathe (PR: 7)
9. Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq. (PR: 8)
10. Robert Pattinson, Good Time (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jeremy Renner, Wind River
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird (PR: 3)
2. Meryl Streep, The Post (PR: 4)
3. Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 1)
4. Margot Robbie, I, Tonya (PR: 2)
5. Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game (PR: 6)
7. Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 8)
8. Kate Winslet, Wonder Wheel (PR: 7)
9. Vicky Krieps, Phantom Thread (PR: 9)
10. Judi Dench, Victoria and Abdul (PR: 10)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project (PR: 2)
2. Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 1)
3. Armie Hammer, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 3)
4. Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 5)
5. Mark Rylance, Dunkirk (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Michael Shannon, The Shape of Water (PR: 4)
7. Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 7)
8. Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 9)
9. Jason Mitchell, Mudbound (PR: 8)
10. Steve Carell, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 10)
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Allison Janney, I, Tonya (PR: 1)
2. Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird (PR: 2)
3. Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread (PR: 3)
4. Mary J. Blige, Mudbound (PR: 5)
5. Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Melissa Leo, Novitiate (PR: 4)
7. Hong Chau, Downsizing (PR: 6)
8. Kristin Scott Thomas, Darkest Hour (PR: 9)
9. Holly Hunter, The Big Sick (PR: 8)
10. Tiffany Haddish, Girls Trip (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Julianne Moore, Wonderstruck
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 1)
2. The Disaster Artist (PR: 4)
3. Mudbound (PR: 2)
4. Molly’s Game (PR: 3)
5. Wonderstruck (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Last Flag Flying (PR: 6)
7. Wonder (PR: 7)
8. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 8)
9. The Beguiled (PR: 10)
10. First, They Killed My Father (PR: 9)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 1)
2. Lady Bird (PR: 2)
3. Phantom Thread (PR: 10)
4. The Post (PR: 5)
5. Get Out (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)
7. The Florida Project (PR: 8)
8. I, Tonya (PR: 6)
9. The Big Sick (PR: 7)
10. Darkest Hour (PR: 9)
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Coco (PR: 1)
2. Loving Vincent (PR: 2)
3. The Breadwinner (PR: 3)
4. Birdboy: The Forgotten Children (PR: 5)
5. Cars 3 (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. The LEGO Batman Movie (PR: 6)
7. The Big Bad Fox and Other Tales (PR: 10)
8. Ferdinand (PR: 7)
9. Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie (PR: 8)
10. In this Corner of the World (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Despicable Me 3
Best Foreign Language Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. BPM (Beats Per Minute) (PR: 1)
2. Foxtrot (PR: 3)
3. First, They Killed My Father (PR: 4)
4. In the Fade (PR: 2)
5. The Insult (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
6. A Fantastic Woman (PR: 6)
7. The Square (PR: 5)
8. Loveless (PR: 7)
9. Thelma (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Divine Order (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Happy End
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Jane (PR: 1)
2. Cries from Syria (PR: 2)
3. City of Ghosts (PR: 4)
4. Icarus (PR: 3)
5. Faces Places (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
6. Strong Island (PR: 8)
7. Long Strange Trip (PR: 5)
8. Risk (PR: 7)
9. One of Us (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Kedi (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Step
The Final Year
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. The Post (PR: 4)
3. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)
4. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 3)
5. Lady Bird (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. I, Tonya (PR: 6)
7. Phantom Thread (PR: 9)
8. Darkest Hour (PR: 5)
9. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 7)
10. Detroit (PR: 10)
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)
3. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)
4. The Post (PR: 4)
5. Darkest Hour (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wonderstruck (PR: 8)
7. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 7)
8. Mudbound (PR: 10)
9. Lady Bird (PR: 9)
10. Call Me by Your Name (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Phantom Thread – not eligible due to director being the film’s cinematographer
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (PR: 3)
2. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)
3. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 1)
4. Phantom Thread (PR: 5)
5. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Darkest Hour (PR: 6)
7. The Post (PR: 7)
8. Wonderstruck (PR: 8)
9. The Greatest Showman (PR: 9)
10. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Phantom Thread (PR: 1)
2. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 2)
3. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)
4. The Post (PR: 4)
5. Darkest Hour (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Greatest Showman (PR: 5)
7. The Beguiled (PR: 8)
8. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 6)
9. Wonder Wheel (PR: 9)
10. Wonderstruck (PR: 10)
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Darkest Hour (PR: 1)
2. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 2)
3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
4. The Shape of Water (PR: 5)
5. Phantom Thread (PR: 3)
6. I, Tonya (PR: 4)
7. The Greatest Showman (PR: 6)
8. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Wonder (PR: 7)
10. It (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Thor: Ragnarok
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 1)
2. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)
3. War for the Planet of the Apes (PR: 4)
4. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 3)
5. Dunkirk (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 7)
7. Spider-Man: Homecoming (PR: 6)
8. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (PR: 9)
9. Wonder Woman (PR: 8)
10. Thor: Ragnarok (PR: 10)
Best Sound Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)
3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 5)
4. War for the Planet of the Apes (PR: 6)
5. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Baby Driver (PR: 4)
7. Wonder Woman (PR: 7)
8. The Post (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The Greatest Showman (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Detroit (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Transformers: The Last Knight
Beauty and the Beast
Best Sound Mixing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)
3. Baby Driver (PR: 4)
4. The Greatest Showman (PR: 9)
5. Detroit (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 3)
7. The Shape of Water (PR: 5)
8. War for the Planet of the Apes (PR: 10)
9. The Post (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 6)
Dropped Out:
Transformers: The Last Knight
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)
2. PhantomThread (PR: 2)
3. Dunkirk (PR: 1)
4. The Post (PR: 4)
5. Darkest Hour (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wonderstruck (PR: 6)
7. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 8)
8. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 10)
9. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 7)
10. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 9)
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Remember Me” from Coco (PR: 1)
2. “Stand Up for Something” from Marshall (PR: 2)
3. “Prayers for this World” from Cries from Syria (PR: 3)
4. “Evermore” from Beauty and the Beast (PR: 4)
5. “The Mystery of Love” from Call Me by Your Name (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. “I Don’t Wanna Live Forever” from Fifty Shades Darker (PR: 7)
7. “It Ain’t Fair” from Detroit (PR: 6)
8. “Truth to Power” from An Inconvenient Sequel: Truth to Power (PR: 8)
9. “Come Alive” from The Greatest Showman (PR: 9)
10. “The Promise” from The Promise (PR: 10)
And that gives us the nomination numbers breakdown:
11 Nominations
Dunkirk, The Shape of Water
9 Nominations
The Post
7 Nominations
Phantom Thread
6 Nominations
Lady Bird, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, Call Me by Your Name, Darkest Hour
5 Nominations
Blade Runner 2049, Beauty and the Beast
2 Nominations
The Florida Project, The Disaster Artist, I, Tonya, Mudbound, Coco, Cries from Syria, War for the Planet of the Apes, Star Wars: The Last Jedi
1 Nomination
Molly’s Game, Wonderstruck, Get Out, Loving Vincent, The Breadwinner, Birdboy: The Forgotten Children, Cars 3, BPM (Beats Per Minute), Foxtrot, First, They Killed My Father, In the Fade, The Insult, Jane, City of Ghosts, Icarus, Faces Places, Baby Driver, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2, The Greatest Showman, Detroit, Marshall.
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