Box Office Predictions: February 20-22

Three new titles attempt to take on the lovers of Fifty Shades of Grey and fighters of Kingsman: The Secret Service at the box office this weekend. They are the Kevin Costner sports drama McFarland, USA, raunchy comedy sequel Hot Tub Time Machine 2, and teen comedy The DUFF. You can read my individual prediction posts on each here:

I don’t expect any of the trio to make much headway among audiences and have them debuting at spots 5-7. While Fifty Shades debuted to fabulous results, it is bound to suffer a huge fall in its sophomore frame. The shrewd Valentine’s Day weekend release and rabid fan base of its source material means many filmgoers rushed to see it right away. Even with the anticipated large drop I foresee, it should still remain on top.

Kingsman: The Secret Service also debuted to impressive results over the holiday weekend. It seems destined to lose around half its audience in weekend two. The SpongeBob Movie and American Sniper should stay third and fourth.

And with that, a top seven predictions for the weekend:

1. Fifty Shades of Grey

Predicted Gross: $29.2 million (representing a drop of 65%)

2. Kingsman: The Secret Service

Predicted Gross: $18.3 million (representing a drop of 49%)

3. The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water

Predicted Gross: $16.8 million (representing a drop of 46%)

4. American Sniper

Predicted Gross: $11.1 million (representing a drop of 33%)

5. McFarland, USA

Predicted Gross: $9.7 million

6. Hot Tub Time Machine 2

Predicted Gross: $8.3 million

7. The DUFF

Predicted Gross: $7.9 million

Box Office Results (February 13-15)

Fifty Shades of Grey burst onto the box office scene with the highest February opening of all time, surpassing 2004’s The Passion of the Christ. The phenomenon made $85.1 million over the Friday to Sunday portion of the weekend, blasting past my $63.1M estimate. It earned $93 million when factoring in Monday’s gross when President’s Day allowed many adults the day off.

Kingsman: The Secret Service brought in the fellas as Fifty brought in the ladies to the tune of $36.2 million, ahead of my $30.6M projection. The comic book based critical hit stands at $41.7 million for the four day weekend.

Last weekend’s champ SpongeBob dropped to third with a strong $31.4 million, besting my $25.7M prediction. The Nickelodeon toon’s total stands at $103.1 million.

American Sniper took fourth with $16.4 million, in line with my $15.3M estimate. Its astonishing cume is at $306 million. Finally, sci fi dud Jupiter Ascending was fifth in its second frame with $9.2 million, a bit ahead of my $7.5 million. It has made just $33 million at press time.

That’ll do it for now, friends! Until next time…



Box Office Predictions: February 6-8

The reign of American Sniper is likely to end this first full weekend of February as three new titles debut: animated sequel The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water, sci-fi epic Jupiter Ascending, and fantasy pic Seventh Son. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

I believe it will be SpongeBob and not Jupiter that will knock Bradley Cooper’s Oscar nominated war pic from its #1 perch, though it could be close. That would leave Sniper dropping to third with Seventh Son debuting fourth and Paddington rounding out the top five.

And with that, a top five predictions for the weekend:

1. The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water

Predicted Gross: $27.8 million

2. Jupiter Ascending 

Predicted Gross: $20.9 million

3. American Sniper

Predicted Gross: $17.7 million (representing a drop of 42%)

4. Seventh Son

Predicted Gross: $8.9 million

5. Paddington

Predicted Gross: $5.3 million (representing a drop of 37%)

Box Office Results (January 30-February 1)

Bad weather and the Super Bowl truly did have an effect on the box office this weekend as nearly all titles couldn’t quite match my predictions. As anticipated, Clint Eastwood’s American Sniper led the charts for the third week in a row. Yet it dropped much further than my estimate with $30.6 million (I said $42.1M). Regardless it’s made $247M at press time.

With a wholly unimpressive second place debut was Project Almanac, the critically drubbed found footage pic which managed just $8.3 million (far below my $16.4M estimate). With little positive buzz and no recognizable stars, audiences simply chose to ignore it.

Paddington was third with $8.2 million, in line with my $7.7M projection. The bear tale has taken in $50M so far.

The Kevin Costner interracial drama managed an OK start with $6.2 million for fourth, just above my $5.6M prediction.

Jennifer Lopez’s thriller The Boy Next Door dipped from second to fifth with a hefty sophomore drop to $6 million, below my $7.5M projection. The total stands at $24M.

The Wedding Ringer was sixth with $5.6 million (I said $6.7M) and it has made $48M. Oscar nominee The Imitation Game took seventh with $5 million (I predicted $6M) and its impressive total is at $67M.

New thriller The Loft tanked with only $2.7 million – making my $4.8M opening prediction seem way generous. The long delayed pic opened tenth. Same goes for critically acclaimed but Academy ignored A Most Violent Year which made just $1.5 million in its expansion or not even half of my $3.4M projection.

And that’ll do it for now, folks! Until next time…

The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water Box Office Prediction

Arriving over a decade after its predecessor, The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water hopes to bring in family audiences and fans of the TV show when it opens Friday. If successful, it may end the three week run of American Sniper atop the box office and outdo the performance of the highly touted Jupiter Ascending.

The voice cast from the popular Nickelodeon program is paired with Antonio Banderas and Slash from Guns & Roses (?). With Paddington having made the bulk of its money, there is an opening for family entertainment that SpongeBob aims to fill. 2004’s The SpongeBob SquarePants Movie debuted to $32 million before earning $85 million domestically.

I don’t believe the sequel will quite reach those heights, but a debut in the high 20s certainly seems feasible.

The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water opening weekend prediction: $27.8 million

For my Jupiter Ascending prediction, click here:

For my Seventh Son prediction, click here: