Tag: Sing

April 14-16 Box Office Predictions

Those animated Nintendo plumbers should dominate the box office once again after a massive Easter haul, but there are newcomers to ponder. We have horror comedy Renfield with Nicolas Cage and Nicholas Hoult, less funny horror tale The Pope’s Exorcist featuring Russell Crowe, and Japanese animated fantasy Suzume. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on that trio here:

Renfield Box Office Prediction
The Pope’s Exorcist Box Office Prediction
Suzume Box Office Prediction

Nothing will approach the sophomore frame for The Super Mario Bros. Movie, which soared in its first five days of release (more on that below). The question is not whether it will remain #1 (it will easily), but how far it falls. With an A Cinemascore and no competition for families, I’ll say it drops in the 50% range.

Renfield is garnering pretty decent reviews and a double digits to low teens output should allow it to be the runner-up. Suzume is a little trickier. Other Toho titles have exceeded $10 million for their beginnings and this could do the same. I’m projecting it a tad under for a fourth place showing behind the sophomore weekend for Air (which should have a nice hold).

The Pope’s Exorcist is also a bit of a head scratcher. Horror flicks can certainly over perform and this did decent business overseas this past weekend. Yet with Renfield providing a diversion for eyeballs, this might not even make the top 5.

Finally, I’ll dispense with Mafia Mamma. This Bleecker Street comedy stars Toni Collette and seems to be flying far under the radar. I didn’t do an individual prognosis post for it and haven’t seen a screen count. Given the distributor’s lack of success with earlier projects, this might be lucky to hit $2 million. That would put it nowhere near the high five.

Given that numbers 3-7 especially could be close, I’ll give you my outlook for those spots:

1. The Super Mario Bros. Movie

Predicted Gross: $74.9 million

2. Renfield

Predicted Gross: $12.2 million

3. Air

Predicted Gross: $9.5 million

4. Suzume

Predicted Gross: $8.7 million

5. John Wick: Chapter 4

Predicted Gross: $8.4 million

6. The Pope’s Exorcist

Predicted Gross: $7.4 million

7. Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves

Predicted Gross: $6.9 million

Box Office Results (April 7-9)

Illumination Entertainment doesn’t really miss when it comes to putting out animated blockbusters (think Despicable Me, Minions, Sing, The Secret Life of Pets franchises). Now they clearly have a host of Nintendo properties that will shower them with coins. The Super Mario Bros. Movie vastly exceeded expectations with $146.3 million from Friday to Sunday and $204.6 million since its Wednesday premiere. That is, to say the least, better than my respective estimates of $98.6 million and $137.7 million. The temperature was clearly right for its massive breakthrough performance as its global $377 million gross is the best ever for an animated feature.

John Wick: Chapter 4 stayed put in second with $14.4 million (on target with my $14.6 million call). The three-week total stands at $146 million.

Ben Affleck’s Air rode a wave of rising buzz to impressive numbers. It made $14.4 million for third with $20.2 million since its Wednesday start. The sports drama managed to top my takes which were $12.7 million and $18.9 million. As mentioned, this should hold up well in the coming weekends.

Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves was the biggest victim of the Mario wave. In its second weekend, the adventure tumbled 63% to $13.8 million. I was more optimistic with $16.8 million. The ten-day domestic tally is $61 million as its future as a franchise is murky.

Scream VI was fifth with $3.4 million. I incorrectly had it outside the top five as it crossed the century mark after five weeks with $103 million.

Finally, faith-based drama His Only Son failed to capitalize on the religious holiday with $2.8 million for sixth. I thought it might do a bit better in frame #2 and said $3.8 million. It’s made $10 million.

Check out my podcast by searching Movies at the Speed of Speculation wherever you stream!

Until next time…

April 7-9 Box Office Predictions

Blogger’s Update (04/05): I am revising my estimate for Mario slightly up from $92.6M for the three-day to $98.6M and from $128.7M for the five-day to $137.7M

The Easter weekend starts early with Illumination Entertainment’s The Super Mario Bros. Movie and Ben Affleck’s sports drama Air rising in multiplexes on Wednesday. My detailed prediction posts on the newcomers can be accessed here:

The Super Mario Bros. Movie Box Office Prediction
Air Box Office Prediction

It’s Mario that should have no trouble ruling the holiday frame. Coming from the studio behind the massive Despicable Me, Minions, and Sing franchises, this is likely to spawn another one. I’ve got it topping $90 million for the traditional Friday to Sunday portion and falling just shy of $130 million during its first five days.

Air could certainly exceed forecasts with its strong reviews and frequent promotion during the March Madness tournament. I’m projecting a low double digits output for the three-day and high teens for the five. The Friday to Sunday take would place it fourth. Expect it to have sturdy holds in subsequent weekends.

Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves may see a mid to high 50s dip in its sophomore frame while John Wick: Chapter 4 might experience a high 40s to 50% percentage drop. That would mean they fall a spot to 2nd and 3rd, respectively.

After a slightly better than anticipated beginning, His Only Son could take advantage of the Easter weekend with a l0w 30s slide for fifth.

Here’s how I see it playing out:

1. The Super Mario Bros. Movie

Predicted Gross: $98.6 million (Friday to Sunday); $137.7 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

2. Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves

Predicted Gross: $16.8 million

3. John Wick: Chapter 4

Predicted Gross: $14.6 million

4. Air

Predicted Gross: $12.7 million (Friday to Sunday); $18.9 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

5. His Only Son

Predicted Gross: $3.8 million

Box Office Results (March 31-April 2)

Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves matched or barely surpassed most prognostications with $37.2 million for the gold. That’s beyond my $32.7 million call. It’s a decent opening though not spectacular considering the reported $150 million budget (minus promotion). Factoring in overseas earnings, however, it might still spawn a franchise.

John Wick: Chapter 4 was second after its series best start. Down an understandable 62% at $28.3 million (I went a little higher at $31.5 million), the ten-day haul is $123 million.

Faith-based drama His Only Son, on less than 2000 screens, managed a sturdy $5.5 million (I was lower at $3.8 million). As mentioned, this may experience the lowest decline of the holdovers coming up.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zo2V5CQMuJw&t=15s

Spots 4-6 were holdover sequels with Scream VI in fourth at $5.3 million compared to my $4.2 million projection. The tally is nearly at nine digits with $98 million.

Creed III was fifth with $5 million (I said $4.6 million) to bring its total to $148 million.

Shazam! Fury of the Gods was sixth at $4.6 million, in line with my $4.3 million forecast for a lowly $53 million (which is was its 2019 predecessor opened with).

Check out my podcast where I talk all things box office by searching “Movies at the Speed of Speculation” at your favorite podcasting engine…

And that’s all for now, folks! Until next time…

Sing 2 Box Office Prediction

Sing 2 hopes to make a joyful noise in theaters when it debuts December 22nd. Illumination Entertainment’s animated sequel arrives five years after the original scored $270 million domestically. Garth Jennings returns to direct as do the vocal stylings of Matthew McConaughey, Reese Witherspoon, Scarlett Johansson, Nick Kroll, Taron Egerton, Tori Kelly, and Nick Offerman. New to the proceedings are Bobby Cannavale, Halsey, Pharrell Williams, Letitia Wright, Eric Andre, Chelsea Peretti, and Bono.

So will Universal find what they’re looking for in terms of box office? In 2016, part 1 made a splash with a $55 million haul over its five-day Christmas rollout. That was good for second place behind Rogue One: A Star Wars Story. The best hope here is also a runner-up showing as Spider-Man: No Way Home will most certainly be #1 in its sophomore weekend. However, Sing 2 might place third behind the premiere of The Matrix Resurrections. 

I think it’s going to be a close competition between this and Matrix for the two spot. This animated follow-up is bound to leg out more strongly than Neo and company. I’ll say high 20s to low 30s for the traditional weekend and mid 40s the five-day.

Sing 2 opening weekend prediction: $31.3 million (Friday to Sunday); $46.8 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

For my The Matrix Resurrections prediction, click here:

The Matrix Resurrections Box Office Prediction

For my The King’s Man prediction, click here:

The King’s Man Box Office Prediction

For my American Underdog prediction, click here:

American Underdog Box Office Prediction

For my A Journal for Jordan prediction, click here:

A Journal for Jordan Box Office Prediction

Oscar Predictions: Sing 2

Sing 2 is likely to make loud box office noises when it’s released December 22nd. The sequel to the animated musical comedy arrives five years after the original took in $270 million domestically. From Illumination Entertainment, Garth Jennings returns to direct as do the voices of Matthew McConaughey, Reese Witherspoon, Scarlett Johansson, Nick Kroll, Taron Egerton, Tori Kelly, and Nick Offerman. Newbies include Bobby Cannavale, Halsey, Pharrell Williams, Letitia Wright, Eric Andre, and Bono.

Despite part one being a smash hit, it did not manage to nab a Best Animated Feature nod. The first Sing achieved a decent 71% Rotten Tomatoes rating. There’s just a handful of reviews out for the follow-up and it’s currently lower at 60%.

With a trio of Disney efforts (Encanto, Luca, Raya and the Last Dragon), two Netflix properties (The Mitchells vs. the Machines, The Summit of the Gods), and acclaimed foreign features Flee and Belle all in the mix, Animated Feature is already crowded. I don’t foresee a sequel to something that couldn’t get in the first time around being viable.

In Best Original Song, a band that Bono started that you might be familiar with (U2) has “Your Song Saved My Life”. This is another category with plenty of high profile contenders (Beyonce and Billie Eilish among them). Bono and his mates probably won’t make the cut. My Oscar Prediction posts for the films of 2021 will continue…

McConaughey: Everything’s Not Alright Alright

When this blog started in the fall of 2012, Matthew McConaughey was coming off a solid two-year period which saw him headline the surprise legal drama hit The Lincoln Lawyer and attract rave reviews for his supporting role in Magic Mike.

Yet 2013 elevated the actor to a whole new stratosphere. His work in the acclaimed indie pic Mud garnered Oscar chatter. He had a memorable cameo alongside Leonardo DiCaprio in Martin Scorsese’s The Wolf of Wall Street. It ironically turned out that McConaughey’s scene partner in that film was his biggest competition for an Oscar. Dallas Buyers Club would see the Texan playing Ron Woodruff, a real life AIDS patient in the 1980s. McConaughey’s work was praised and he took home the gold statue. His luck streak continued into the following year starring in Christopher Nolan’s Interstellar, which stands as his largest grossing live-action feature.

Since then? Well, let’s just say the McConaissance has been interrupted. Or borrowing his most famous catchphrase from 1993’s Dazed and Confused – it’s not Alright Alright.

This weekend, his stoner comedy The Beach Bum tanked at the box office. Its approximate $1.8 million opening is the worst release of the actor’s career. And it follows a pattern of now seven live-action duds (he did provide voice work in the animated pics Sing and Kubo and the Two Strings). And to give a modicum of credit, he did skip the subpar sequel Magic Mike XXL.

At least Nicolas Cage had a string of action hits after his Oscar before delving into VOD territory. McConaughey hasn’t been so fortunate and he quickly needs a critical or commercial success to redeem things. His list of recent material is an unsuccessful and largely forgettable one. In three years, we’ve had:

  • Free State of Jones, his summer 2016 Civil War drama that took in $20 million domestically against a $50 million budget. Its Rotten Tomatoes score was 46%.
  • The Sea of Trees from later that summer. The drama wasn’t even released wide and didn’t make a million dollars (13% RT score).
  • True life crime drama Gold in January 2017. 42% RT. $14 million gross stateside.
  • The Dark Tower in summer 2017. The critically maligned Stephen King adaptation had a 16% RT rating and immediately ended the possibility of a franchise with earnings of $50 million.
  • Another based on actual events crime drama from last fall – White Boy Rick. 58% RT and $24 million gross.
  • Noir thriller Serenity from earlier this year. Barely promoted, it made an embarrassing $8 million total with a 23% RT score.

And now The Beach Bum, which won’t reach $10 million domestically either. It’s time for McConaughey’s people to find him some better stuff. His most memorable appearances lately have been in car commercials. If they can’t manage to do so, there’s always 2013.

Rock Dog Box Office Prediction

For dogs about to rock… we salute you? That’s the question audiences will answer next weekend when the animated tale (tail?) Rock Dog hits theaters. The 3D generated comedy was co-produced by a Chinese studio and already opened in that country to lackluster results.

The voice cast features Luke Wilson as a canine with musical aspirations. Other well-known faces behind the mic include J.K. Simmons, Eddie Izzard, Lewis Black, Sam Elliot, Kenan Thompson, Jorge Garcia, and Matt Dillon. Family audiences should still be checking out Lego Batman in its third weekend and the recent musical ‘toon Sing was a box office smash.

As I see it, Rock Dog is highly likely to get lost in the shuffle with its intended crowd. I have doubts this will even reach $5 million for its start.

Rock Dog opening weekend prediction: $4.4 million

For my Get Out prediction, click here:

Get Out Box Office Prediction

For my Collide prediction, click here:

Collide Box Office Prediction

Box Office Predictions: February 3-5

The first weekend of February brings new titles to the marketplace to compete with holdovers and a football game on Sunday. They are: long gestating horror sequel Rings and sci-fi teen romance The Space Between Us. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/01/25/rings-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/01/26/the-space-between-us-box-office-prediction/

As I see it, both The Bye Bye Man and Split exceeded their opening weekend expectations (more on the terrific Split earnings below). It’s been a bountiful 2017 thus far for the horror genre and I believe Rings will debut just north of $20M for a first place showing.

The Space Between Us should struggle to reach the top 5 and my mid single digits forecast for it leaves it on the outside. Current #1 and #2 Split and A Dog’s Purpose should slide down a spot with awards hopefuls Hidden Figures and La La Land rounding out the top five.

And with that, a top 6 predictions for the weekend:

1. Rings

Predicted Gross: $20.3 million

2. Split

Predicted Gross: $14.4 million (representing a drop of 43%)

3. A Dog’s Purpose

Predicted Gross: $12.5 million (representing a drop of 31%)

4. Hidden Figures

Predicted Gross: $10.7 million (representing a drop of 24%)

5. La La Land

Predicted Gross: $8.3 million (representing a drop of 32%)

6. The Space Between Us

Predicted Gross: $6.7 million

Box Office Results (January 27-29)

If the $40 million opening didn’t convince you, the second weekend of Split solidified director M. Night Shyamalan’s major comeback. The horror thriller took in $25.6 million in its sophomore frame (higher than my $18.5M forecast) to bring its total to $77 million. The century mark is in its sights and it experienced the smallest week 2 decline of any Shyamalan effort since The Sixth Sense.

Despite controversy, A Dog’s Purpose brought in a pleasing $18.2 million for a solid second place showing. This was much more than my $10.3M projection, which I revised down from an original estimate of $17.9M. Should have stuck with my first thought…

Hidden Figures (which won the main SAG prize yesterday) was third with $14 million compared to my $12.8M prediction. The Oscar nominee now stands at $104M.

Resident Evil: The Final Chapter posted a franchise low debut in fourth with just $13.6 million, just below my $14.6M estimate. Look for it to fade fast.

La La Land rounded out the top five with $12.2 million, above my $9.9M guesstimate. Like Figures, it also joined the $100M+ club as it’s made $106M.

xXx: Return of Xander Cage was sixth in weekend #2 with $8.6 million, in line with my $8.9M estimate for a weak tally of $33M.

Sing was seventh with $6.4 million (I said $5.6M) to pad its now $257M take.

Finally, Matthew McConaughey posted a career low wide opening with Gold. It only managed a 10th place debut with $3.4 million (I went higher with $5.4M).

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: January 27-29

Three new titles debut this weekend, but none in the trio may dislodge Split from a second weekend atop the charts. The newbies are: sixth and presumably last franchise pic Resident Evil: The Final Chapter, family friendly pet tale A Dog’s Purpose, and Matthew McConaughey vehicle Gold. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each here:

Resident Evil: The Final Chapter Box Office Prediction

A Dog’s Purpose Box Office Prediction

Gold Box Office Prediction

We’ll begin with Resident Evil. While all other entries in the series have managed over $20 million (except for the first in 2002), the near five-year gap between sequels should hurt this, similar to how it just hurt Underworld: Blood Wars. Still, a second place showing looks probable.

That brings us to A Dog’s Purpose. Based on a hugely successful bestseller, I had this pegged at nearly $18 million until last week when a TMZ story alleged very questionable animal handling practices on set. My feeling is that the story has gotten big enough to hurt this significantly and I now have it barely topping double digits.

As for Gold, middling reviews could hinder this one and I’ve got it outside the top five with mid single digits.

Returning champ Split had a much larger than expected debut (more on that below). Even if it dips more than 50% (typical for horror titles), I still see it remaining #1.

xXx: Return of Xander Cage had an unimpressive opening and I expect it to fall from #2 to #6. That’s because both Hidden Figures and La La Land should reap the benefits of Oscar nominations. La La, in particular, looks poised to receive the most Academy nods of any picture in history tomorrow morning and that could contribute to a bump.

And with that, my top 8 predictions for this weekend:

1. Split 

Predicted Gross: $18.5 million (representing a drop of 53%)

2. Resident Evil: The Final Chapter

Predicted Gross: $14.6 million

3. Hidden Figures

Predicted Gross: $12.8 million (representing a drop of 19%)

4. A Dog’s Purpose

Predicted Gross: $10.3 million

5. La La Land

Predicted Gross: $9.9 million (representing an increase of 18&)

6. xXx: Return of Xander Cage

Predicted Gross: $8.9 million (representing a drop of 55%)

7. Sing

Predicted Gross: $5.6 million (representing a drop of 38%)

8. Gold

Predicted Gross: $5.4 million

Box Office Results (January 20-22)

On the weekend that we just had, maybe it’s somewhat appropriate and ironic that the #1 movie in America is titled Split. And the M. Night Shymalan pic rocketed out of the gate with a fantastic and unforeseen $40.1 million, more than doubling my teeny $19.6M estimate. This is the director’s fourth highest domestic debut, trailing Signs, The Village, and The Last Airbender. It puts the director, who’d been on a downturn until 2015’s low-budget The Visit performed well, on even more of an upswing.

xXx: Return of Xander Cage managed a middling $20.1 million in second, under my $25.4M prediction. The Diesel power is clearly stronger with his Fast and Furious franchise.

Two-week champ Hidden Figures was third with $15.7 million (a bit above my $13.7M forecast) for $83M thus far.

Sing was fourth with $9 million (I said $8.4M) to bring its tally to $249M.

Fifth place belonged to La La Land with $8.4 million (not matching my $11.4M estimate) for an $89M total. Still, as mentioned, its Oscar bump could be forthcoming.

Rogue One was sixth with $7.2 million (I said $7.8M) for a $512M haul.

#7 – Monster Trucks in weekend #2 with $7 million (I said $6.2M). Total gross: $22M.

#8 – Patriots Day, also in weekend #2 of wide release with $5.7 million (I said $7.2M). Total gross: $23M.

#9 – Sleepless in its sophomore frame with $3.4M and #10 was The Bye Bye Man, also with $3.4M in weekend 2. My respective guesstimates were $4.3M and $5.9M.

The Founder with Michael Keaton opened to stale results with $3.4 million in 11th, a bit shy of my $4.1M estimate.

Finally, two other newcomers posted low numbers as 20th Century Women expanded wide and made $1.4 million (I was higher with $2.8M) and faith-based dramedy The Resurrection of Gavin Stone earned $1.3 million (I said $1.6M).

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Todd’s 2016 FINAL Oscar Predictions!

Well, here we are folks! After four months of (almost) weekly columns predicting the nominees and dozens of individualized Oscar Watch posts, the Academy Award nominations will be officially announced on Tuesday, January 24th around 8:30AM Eastern time. These are my final predictions. I’ve pontificated all year on who and what these nominees might be, so we’ll keep this simple. I’m listing my predicted nominees in each race as well as a first and second alternative. On Tuesday evening, I’ll have a post up recounting how I did.

Let’s get to it!

Best Picture

Arrival

Fences

Hacksaw Ridge

Hell or High Water

Hidden Figures

La La Land

Lion

Manchester by the Sea

Moonlight

First Alternate: Nocturnal Animals

Second Alternate: Loving

Best Director

Damien Chazelle, La La Land

Garth Davis, Lion

Barry Jenkins, Moonlight

Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea

Denis Villeneuve, Arrival

First Alternate: Martin Scorsese, Silence

Second Alternate: Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge

Best Actor

Casey Affleck, Manchster by the Sea

Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge

Ryan Gosling, La La Land

Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic

Denzel Washington, Fences

First Alternate: Jake Gyllenhaal, Nocturnal Animals

Second Alternate: Joel Edgerton, Loving

Best Actress

Amy Adams, Arrival

Isabelle Huppert, Elle

Natalie Portman, Jackie

Emma Stone, La La Land

Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins

First Alternate: Annette Bening, 20th Century Women

Second Alternate: Emily Blunt, The Girl on the Train

Best Supporting Actor

Mahershala Ali, Moonlight

Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water

Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea

Dev Patel, Lion

Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals

First Alternate: Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins

Second Alternate: Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Nocturnal Animals

Best Supporting Actress

Viola Davis, Fences

Naomie Harris, Moonlight

Nicole Kidman, Lion

Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures

Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea

First Alternate: Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women

Second Alternate: Janelle Monae, Hidden Figures

Best Adapted Screenplay

Arrival

Fences

Lion

Moonlight

Nocturnal Animals

First Alternate: Hidden Figures

Second Alternate: Loving

Best Original Screenplay

Captain Fantastic

Hell or High Water

I, Daniel Blake

La La Land

Manchester by the Sea

First Alternate: The Lobster

Second Alternate: Toni Erdmann

Best Animated Feature

Finding Dory

Kubo and the Two Strings

Moana

My Life as a Zucchini

Zootopia

First Alternate: The Red Turtle

Second Alternate: The Little Prince

Best Documentary Feature

Cameraperson

I Am Not Your Negro

Life, Animated

O.J.: Made in America

13th

First Alternate: Gleason

Second Alternate: The Ivory Game

Best Foreign Language Film

The King’s Choice

Land of Mine

A Man Called Ove

The Salesman

Toni Erdmann

First Alternate: My Life as a Zucchini

Second Alternate: It’s Only the End of the World

Best Cinematography

Arrival

La La Land

Moonlight

Nocturnal Animals

Silence

First Alternate: Lion

Second Alternate: Hacksaw Ridge

Best Costume Design

Allied

Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

Florence Foster Jenkins

Jackie

La La Land

First Alternate: Silence

Second Alternate: Love & Friendship

Best Editing

Arrival

Hacksaw Ridge

La La Land

Manchester by the Sea

Moonlight

First Alternate: Lion

Second Alternate: Hell or High Water

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Deadpool

Florence Foster Jenkins

Star Trek Beyond

First Alternate: A Man Called Ove

Second Alternate: Suicide Squad

Best Original Score

Florence Foster Jenkins

La La Land

Lion

Moonlight

Nocturnal Animals

First Alternate: Jackie

Second Alternate: Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

Best Original Song

“Audition” from La La Land

“Can’t Stop the Feeling!” from Trolls

“City of Stars” from La La Land

“Drive It Like You Stole It” from Sing Street

“How Far I’ll Go” from Moana

First Alternate: “Runnin” from Hidden Figures

Second Alternate: “Faith” from Sing

Best Production Design

Arrival

Jackie

La La Land

Nocturnal Animals

Silence

First Alternate: Hacksaw Ridge

Second Alternate: Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

Best Sound Editing

Arrival

Deepwater Horizon

Hacksaw Ridge

La La Land

Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

First Alternate: Sully

Second Alternate: The Jungle Book

Best Sound Mixing

Arrival

Hacksaw Ridge

La La Land

Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

Sully

First Alternate: Deepwater Horizon

Second Alternate: Deadpool

Best Visual Effects

Arrival

Doctor Strange

Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

The Jungle Book

Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

First Alternate: Deepwater Horizon

Second Alternate: The BFG

That gives yours truly the following nomination breakdown:

14 Nominations

La La Land

10 Nominations

Arrival

8 Nominations

Moonlight

7 Nominations

Manchester by the Sea

6 Nominations

Lion

5 Nominations

Hacksaw Ridge, Nocturnal Animals

4 Nominations

Fences, Florence Foster Jenkins

3 Nominations

Hell or High Water, Jackie, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

2 Nominations

Hidden Figures, Captain Fantastic, Moana, Silence, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

1 Nomination

Elle, I, Daniel Blake, Finding Dory, Kubo and the Two Strings, My Life as a Zucchini, Zootopia, Cameraperson, I Am Not Your Negro, Life, Animated, O.J.: Made in America, 13th, The King’s Choice, Land of Mine, A Man Called Ove, The Salesman, Toni Erdmann, Allied, Deadpool, Star Trek Beyond, Trolls, Sing Street, Deepwater Horizon, Sully, Doctor Strange, The Jungle Book

And there you have it – my FINAL (yikes) Oscar predictions! Check back on Tuesday for the postmortem.

Box Office Predictions: January 20-22

As if the six films crowding the MLK four-day weekend wasn’t enough this past frame, there are now five more hitting theaters in wide release on Friday. They are: Vin Diesel action sequel xXx: Return of Xander Cage, M. Night Shyamalan horror thriller Split, Michael Keaton led Ray Kroc biopic The Founder, comedic drama 20th Century Women with Annette Bening, and faith-based pic The Resurrection of Gavin Stone. You can find my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/01/10/xxx-return-of-xander-cage-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/01/10/split-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/01/11/the-founder-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/01/12/20th-century-women-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/01/12/the-resurrection-of-gavin-stone-box-office-prediction/

As I see it, Mr. Diesel is likely to rule the weekend, though a higher than expected gross for Split would not surprise me (reviews are good and so are the TV spots). The three and four spots should be filled with two awards hopefuls already doing brisk business: two-week champ Hidden Figures and Best Picture front runner La La Land. 

As for The Founder, it’s only debuting on 1100 screens which should hinder its potential. My $4.1 million estimate puts it just outside the top 10. I anticipate both 20th Century Women ($2.8M forecast) and Gavin Stone ($1.6M prediction) to be pretty far outside my projected 10.

And here is that top 10 from where I see it:

1. xXx: Return of Xander Cage

Predicted Gross: $25.4 million

2. Split

Predicted Gross: $19.6 million

3. Hidden Figures

Predicted Gross: $13.7 million (representing a drop of 34%)

4. La La Land

Predicted Gross: $11.4 million (representing a drop of 22%)

5. Sing

Predicted Gross: $8.4 million (representing a drop of 41%)

6. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

Predicted Gross: $7.8 million (representing a drop of 42%)

7. Patriots Day

Predicted Gross: $7.2 million (representing a drop of 39%)

8. Monster Trucks

Predicted Gross: $6.2 million (representing a drop of 43%)

9. The Bye Bye Man

Predicted Gross: $5.9 million (representing a drop of 57%)

10. Sleepless 

Predicted Gross: $4.3 million

Box Office Results (January 13-16)

Those ladies from NASA held onto the top spot for the second weekend in a row as Hidden Figures topped the Martin Luther King, Jr. holiday weekend with earnings of $27.5 million. This is a bit above my predicted figure of $24.1M and brings its tally to $61 million.

The animated Sing was second with $19 million (past my $16.4M estimate) as it stands at a pleasing $238 million total.

La La Land sang and danced its way to third place one weekend after cleaning up at the Golden Globes. It earned $17.7 million (I was lower with $13.7M) and its total is at $77 million, barreling towards $100M as Oscar nominations are due next week.

Rogue One: A Star Wars Story was fourth with $16.8 million (I was close with $16.4M). The highest grosser of 2015 padded its gross to $501 million.

The top four did not include a single one of the six newbies that entered the marketplace. The biggest grosser of that group was surprisingly low-budget horror pic The Bye Bye Man. It earned an impressive $15.2 million, well beyond my $8.8M projection.

Kiddie flick Monster Trucks opened in sixth with $14.1 million. The good news? That was better than my $10.1M guesstimate. The bad news? It still had an inexplicable $115M budget and is a sizable flop.

Patriots Day with Mark Wahlberg posted an unimpressive debut in seventh with $13.7 million, nearly $10M under my $23.6M prediction. It did garner an A+ Cinemascore so its best hope is for low drop-offs in the coming weekends.

The Jamie Foxx action thriller Sleepless premiered in eighth with a rather sleepy $9.7 million, on pace with my $10.3M take.

Underworld: Blood Wars dropped to ninth in its sophomore frame with $7.2 million, just above my $6.6M projection. It’s made $25 million thus far.

Passengers rounded out the top ten with $6.4 million and I incorrectly didn’t have it there. The total is $90 million as it looks to top the century club.

Perhaps the biggest stunner of the weekend was the dismal performance of Ben Affleck’s Live by Night. The gangster drama which received middling reviews bombed in 12th place with just $6 million, less than half of my $13.2M prediction.

Finally, Martin Scorsese’s Silence also flopped as it widened its release. The faith centered passion project for the celebrated director made just $2.3 million in 16th place, not quite reaching my $3M forecast.

That does it for now! Until next time…