Downton Abbey: A New Era Box Office Prediction

The sprawling cast of Brits is back on screen May 20th in Downton Abbey: A New Era. Based on the popular series that ran on PBS domestically from 2010-2015, Era is the sequel to the 2019 cinematic rendering. Simon Curtis takes over directorial duties from Michael Engler. The familiar returnees include Hugh Bonneville, Elizabeth McGovern, Maggie Smith, Michelle Dockery, Jim Carter, Penelope Wilton, and Samantha Bond. Creator Julian Fellowes handles script duties.

Three years back, Abbey easily opened atop the charts with $31 million and an eventual $96 million gross. This won’t manage a #1 start with Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness in its third frame. It should certainly nab the runner-up position.

The question is whether it comes close to what its predecessor started with. Forecasts have this only making about half of what part 1 achieved out of the gate. Considering the 2019 experience surpassed projections, I’ll give this a slight benefit of the doubt.

Downton Abbey: A New Era opening weekend prediction: $18.4 million

For my Men prediction, click here:

Men Box Office Prediction

Oscar Predictions – Downton Abbey: A New Era

After the original grossed nearly $200 million worldwide in 2019, the sequel to Downton Abbey subtitled A New Era arrives in theaters on May 20. It’s in UK cinemas this Friday with the majority of the cast from the series it’s based on (which ran domestically on PBS) returning.

With Simon Curtis (maker of My Week with Marilyn and Woman in Gold) taking over directorial duties from Michael Engler, early reviews for part II are in line with its predecessor. 2019’s Abbey has an 84% Rotten Tomatoes rating while Era‘s currently sits at 78%.

The TV show scored a heaping on Emmy nods with costar Maggie Smith winning Supporting Actress. However, despite Critics Choice nominations for Costume and Production Design, the cinematic rendering didn’t catch the attention of Academy voters. If it couldn’t do so, I’m doubtful its follow-up will manage to either. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

The Art of Racing in the Rain Box Office Prediction

Another canine dramedy hits screens next weekend with The Art of Racing in the Rain. Based on a 2008 book by Garth Stein, the human stars are Milo Ventimiglia and Amanda Seyfried with supporting work from Kathy Baker and Gary Cole. Kevin Costner provides the voice of lead dog Enzo. Simon Curtis directs. This is the first feature made by Fox where new owner Disney has handled the marketing.

Even the Mouse Factory’s expertise at selling product may not enough for Rain to break out of the pack of recent genre fare. In January, A Dog’s Way Home debuted to just over $11 million. In May, A Dog’s Journey did $8 million for its start. I believe the latter scenario is where this lands.

The Art of Racing in the Rain opening weekend prediction: $7.8 million

For my Dora and the Lost City of Gold prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/07/31/dora-and-the-lost-city-of-gold-box-office-prediction/

For my The Kitchen prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/07/31/the-kitchen-box-office-prediction/

For my Scary Stories to Tell in the Dark prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/07/31/scary-stories-to-tell-in-the-dark-box-office-prediction/

For my Brian Banks prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/08/04/brian-banks-box-office-prediction/

Oscar Watch: Goodbye Christopher Robin

Last week, Goodbye Christopher Robin debuted in the United Kingdom ahead of its limited stateside roll out on October 13th. The pic tells the true-life tale of author A.A. Milne (Domhnall Gleeson) and his inspiration to create the Winnie the Pooh character. Margot Robbie portrays his wife.

Director Simon Curtis made My Week with Marilyn in 2011 and it landed acting nods for both Michelle Williams and Kenneth Branagh. He also made 2015’s well-regarded Woman in Gold. The film has been looked at a potential Oscar contender and there’s certainly similarities story wise with 2003’s Finding Neverland, which scored seven nominations.

However, critical reaction has been mixed with few reviews being overwhelmingly positive. Robin is perched at 65% on Rotten Tomatoes. A Best Picture nomination seems highly unlikely at this juncture and I would say the same for both Gleeson and Robbie’s chances. The good news for Robbie? It’s very feasible she’ll receive lead Actress recognition this year as notorious figure skater Tonya Harding in I, Tonya. 

My Oscar Watch posts will continue…