Tag: Sicario

Todd’s Weekly Oscar Predictions: December 4 Edition

We are a bit over a month away from Oscar nominations coming out (January 14th) and it’s time to ramp up my predictions for what and whom will be nominated in the eight top races. I’m adding the two Screenplay categories (Original and Adapted) for the first time and the plan is to make weekly Oscar predictions each weekend until nominations come out. With each race, I’ll inform you what’s changed since the previous predictions post.

And with that, let’s get to predicting, shall we?

Best Picture

Bridge of Spies

Brooklyn

Carol

The Hateful Eight

Inside Out

The Martian

The Revenant

Room

Spotlight

Other Possibilities:

Beasts of No Nation

The Big Short

Creed

The Danish Girl

Joy

Mad Max: Fury Road

Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Steve Jobs

Straight Outta Compton

Changes Since Last Predictions: Bridge of Spies, Inside Out (IN), Joy, Steve Jobs (OUT)

Best Director

Lenny Abrahamson, Room

Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, The Revenant

Tom McCarthy, Spotlight

George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road

Ridley Scott, The Martian

Other Possibilities:

Danny Boyle, Steve Jobs

Ryan Coogler, Creed

John Crowley, Brooklyn

Cary Fukanaga, Beasts of No Nation

Todd Haynes, Carol

Tom Hooper, The Danish Girl

David O. Russell, Joy

Steven Spielberg, Bridge of Spies

Quentin Tarantino, The Hateful Eight

Changes Since Last Predictions: George Miller (IN), David O. Russell (OUT)

Best Actor

Matt Damon, The Martian

Johnny Depp, Black Mass

Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant

Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs

Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl

Other Possibilities:

Michael Caine, Youth

Bryan Cranston, Trumbo

Tom Hanks, Bridge of Spies

Michael B. Jordan, Creed

Ian McKellen, Mr. Holmes

Will Smith, Concussion

Changes Since Last Predictions: NONE

Best Actress

Cate Blanchett, Carol

Brie Larson, Room

Jennifer Lawrence, Joy

Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years

Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn

Other Possibilities:

Emily Blunt, Sicario

Blythe Danner, I’ll See You in My Dreams

Carey Mulligan, Suffragette

Maggie Smith, The Lady in the Van

Charlize Theron, Mad Max: Fury Road

Lily Tomlin, Grandma

Changes Since Last Predictions: Charlotte Rampling (IN), Blythe Danner (OUT)

Best Supporting Actor

Tom Hardy, The Revenant

Michael Keaton, Spotlight

Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight

Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies

Sylvester Stallone, Creed

Other Possibilities:

Christian Bale, The Big Short

Paul Dano, Love and Mercy

Benicio del Toro, Sicario

Joel Edgerton, Black Mass

Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation

Harvey Keitel, Youth

Jacob Tremblay, Room

Changes Since Last Predictions: Tom Hardy (IN), Idris Elba (OUT)

Best Supporting Actress

Jane Fonda, Youth

Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight

Rooney Mara, Carol

Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl

Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs

Other Possibilities:

Joan Allen, Room

Elizabeth Banks, Love and Mercy

Rachel McAdams, Spotlight

Kristin Stewart, Clouds of Sils Maria

Julie Walters, Brooklyn

Changes Since Last Predictions: Jane Fonda (IN), Joan Allen (OUT)

Best Original Screenplay (first prediction in category)

Bridge of Spies

The Hateful Eight

Inside Out

Love and Mercy

Spotlight

Other Possibilities:

Joy

Sicario

Straight Outta Compton

Youth

Best Adapted Screenplay (first prediction in category)

Anomalisa

Brooklyn

Carol

Room

Steve Jobs

Other Possibilities:

The Big Short

Creed

The Martian

The Revenant

And there you have it – folks! The next update will come next weekend…

 

A Lovely Day for Mad Max

A summertime thrill ride that has served as a resurgence for a thirty year old action franchise got a big Oscar boost today when Mad Max: Fury Road won the National Board of Review (NBR) award for Best Picture. This was an upset. While George Miller’s return to kinetic and wild adventure set pieces earned universal critical acclaim, it’s not really been looked at as a given for a Picture nod at the Academy Awards. The NBR attention does nothing but help.

Over this century, the NBR’s Picture winner has been nominated for the big race at the Oscars 14 out of 16 times (the exceptions were 2000’s Quills and last year’s A Most Violent Year). On the other hand, only two of the past 16 NBR honorees have won the Academy’s honor (2007’s No Country for Old Men and 2008’s Slumdog Millionaire).

I would still say that Fury Road is no shoo in for a nomination, but its chances no doubt increased with the announcement this afternoon. I also believe a scenario (and maybe a stronger one) exists where Miller gets a directing nomination with the film being left off of the Best Picture group come announcement time.

The NBR also names an additional nine favorite movies of the year. They were: Bridge of Spies, Creed, The Hateful Eight, Inside Out, The Martian, Room, Sicario, Spotlight, and Straight Outta Compton. Of these films, Sicario and Compton are seen as least likely to receive Oscar attention. Both are still possible and Creed‘s stock keeps rising.

High profile Oscar contenders left off? The Revenant, Steve Jobs, Joy, Anomalisa, Brooklyn, and Carol. However, the NBR list and the Academy list never match and expect some of these titles to be included in the big race.

Besides Max, the other pic to get a huge NBR boost is The Martian, where Ridley Scott won Best Director and Matt Damon won Best Actor. Again, neither are shoo ins for Oscar nods but their inclusion is seeming more and more probable.

As for the other acting categories, Brie Larson’s work in Room marked her first win in what could be several and her Oscar nod seems assured. Sylvester Stallone was victorious in Supporting Actor for Creed and it would now be a surprise if Oscar doesn’t call his name among the five nominees. The same is likely for Jennifer Jason Leigh in The Hateful Eight, who won Supporting Actress.

This day really marked the official beginning of the awards season and there’ll be much more to chew on (other critics group, Golden Globes, SAG Awards) before the Academy reveals their choices. And this blog will be following and keeping you up to date all the way. Stay tuned!

 

Todd’s Oscar Predictions: November Edition

We have arrived at my third round of Oscar predictions for the month of November. Some has changed, some has stayed the same. We’ll go through each of the six major categories one by one…

Let’s go!

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

This is the one category where I’ve made no changes, though any of the others listed as possibilities could find their way in. Most have Jane Fonda in the mix already, but I’m not quite there yet.

TODD’S PREDICTIONS  in SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Joan Allen, Room

Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight

Rooney Mara, Carol

Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl

Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs

Other Possibilities:

Elizabeth Banks, Love and Mercy

Jane Fonda, Youth

Diane Ladd, Joy

Rachel McAdams, Spotlight

Isabella Rossellini, Joy

Julie Walters, Brooklyn

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

And here we have the most changes of any category! Coming out of nowhere last week was Sylvester Stallone’s acclaimed performance in Creed and as of now, here appears to be a strong contender for a nod and maybe even the win. I’m also including Mark Ruffalo and re-including Idris Elba. Falling out are Benicio del Toro, Robert De Niro, and Tom Hardy, though they all remain possibles. This category has a whole lot of potential nominees, but only five slots available.

TODD’S PREDICTIONS for SUPPORTING ACTOR

Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation

Michael Keaton, Spotlight

Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight

Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies

Sylvester Stallone, Creed

Other Possibilities:

Christian Bale, The Big Short

Bradley Cooper, Joy

Paul Dano, Love and Mercy

Benicio del Toro, Sicario

Robert De Niro, Joy

Joel Edgerton, Black Mass

Harrison Ford, Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Tom Hardy, The Revenant

Samuel L. Jackson, The Hateful Eight

Harvey Keitel, Youth

Jason Mitchell, Straight Outta Compton

Kurt Russell, The Hateful Eight

Jacob Tremblay, Room

BEST ACTRESS

Four slots seem to be rather safe and have been for awhile: Cate Blanchett, Brie Larson, Jennifer Lawrence, and Saoirse Ronan. The fifth slot could legitimately be any of the others listed, but for now I’ve removed Carey Mulligan and replaced her with Blythe Danner.

TODD’S PREDICTIONS for ACTRESS

Cate Blanchett, Carol

Blythe Danner, I’ll See You in My Dreams

Brie Larson, Room

Jennifer Lawrence, Joy

Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn

Other Possibilities:

Emily Blunt, Sicario

Carey Mulligan, Suffragette

Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years

Maggie Smith, The Lady in the Van

Charlize Theron, Mad Max: Fury Road

Lily Tomlin, Grandma

BEST ACTOR

Only one change here as I currently feel the massive box office success of The Martian will get Matt Damon in. That takes Michael Caine out. Watch out for Will Smith, though, even though I don’t yet have him in the final  cut.

TODD’S PREDICTIONS for ACTOR

Matt Damon, The Martian

Johnny Depp, Black Mass

Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant

Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs

Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl

Other Possibilities:

Michael Caine, Youth

Bryan Cranston, Trumbo

Tom Hanks, Bridge of Spies

Michael B. Jordan, Creed

Will Smith, Concussion

BEST DIRECTOR

Two changes here as I believe Danny Boyle may miss out and George Miller won’t be the wild card pick I predicted in October. This puts David O. Russell and Ridley Scott in.

TODD’S PREDICTIONS for DIRECTOR

Lenny Abrahamson, Room

Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, The Revenant

Tom McCarthy, Spotlight

David O. Russell, Joy

Ridley Scott, The Martian

Other Possibilities:

Danny Boyle, Steve Jobs

Ryan Coogler, Creed

John Crowley, Brooklyn

Cary Fukanaga, Beasts of No Nation

Todd Haynes, Carol

Tom Hooper, The Danish Girl

George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road

Steven Spielberg, Bridge of Spies

Quentin Tarantino, The Hateful Eight

BEST PICTURE

I am still predicting nine nominees out of the possible five-ten and I’ve made two changes. I’m putting Carol back in the mix and The Martian in for the first time. That leaves out Bridge of Spies and The Danish Girl, though both remain major contenders. It’s worth noting that Steve Jobs, due to its disastrous box office performance, is not even close to a shoo in  and it could fall off.

TODD’s PREDICTIONS for PICTURE

Brooklyn

Carol

The Hateful Eight

Joy

The Martian

The Revenant

Room

Spotlight

Steve Jobs

Other Possibilities:

Beasts of No Nation

The Big Short

Bridge of Spies

Creed

The Danish Girl

Inside Out

In the Heart of the Sea

Mad Max: Fury Road

Sicario

Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Straight Outta Comption

And that does it for my November Oscar predictions, folks! I’ll have the December predictions up shortly before Christmas…

Box Office Predictions: October 30-November 1

Three new films open this Halloween weekend and I have every one of them debuting to below $10 million. They are: Bradley Cooper drama Burnt, zombie comedy Scouts Guide to the Zombie Apocalypse, and Sandra Bullock political comedy/drama Our Brand Is Crisis. You can peruse my detailed individual prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/10/22/our-brand-is-crisis-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/10/22/burnt-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/10/22/scouts-guide-to-the-zombie-apocalypse-box-office-prediction/

After the downright embarrassing performances of some of last week’s newbies (much more on that below), I’m not even supremely confident that putting each of these new entries in the $7-9 million range is correct, but we shall see.

**blogger’s update: due to the previously unknown knowledge that Scouts Guide is only opening on 1500 screens, I am downgrading my $8 million estimate to just $4.2 million

As for the top spot, it could continue to be a battle between The Martian and Goosebumps and my estimates reflect a photo finish. Bridge of Spies, in its third weekend, should continue its small declines from week to week.

And with that, we’ll do a top five projections for what should be a sluggish frame before Spectre and The Peanuts Movie roll out the following weekend:

  1. Goosebumps

Predicted Gross: $11.2 million (representing a drop of 28%)

2. The Martian

Predicted Gross: $10.8 million (representing a drop of 31%)

3. Burnt

Predicted Gross: $8.9 million

4. Bridge of Spies

Predicted Gross: $8.1 million (representing a drop of 29%)

5. Our Brand Is Crisis

Predicted Gross: $7.8 million

Box Office Results (October 23-25)

Well, I thought it might be an unpredictable weekend and was it ever! Not too often that my #1 pick comes in seventh and my #4 pick finishes on top, but that’s exactly what happened.

Ridley Scott’s The Martian climbed back into the #1 position with $15.7 million, ahead of my $12.5M projection to bring its fine total to $166M in four weeks.

Last weekend’s champ Goosebumps fell to second with $15.5 million, under my $17.8M estimate for a two week tally of $43M. As mentioned above, I expect this and The Martian to duke it out for box office supremacy once again this weekend.

Bridge of Spies was third in weekend two with $11.3 million, on target with my $11.9M projection for a $32M total.

The first newcomer of five lackluster debuts belonged to Vin Diesel’s The Last Witch Hunter, taking in just $10.8 million compared to my $15.8M prediction. Poor reviews and a blah marketing campaign didn’t help.

Animated holdover Hotel Transylvania 2 was fifth with $8.8 million (I said $7.6M) for a current $148M haul.

In sixth was Paranormal Activity: The Ghost Dimension with $8 million (as opposed to my $9.7M projection). The latest and reportedly final entry in the franchise went out with a whimper, partly due to its low number of screens due to controversy about it debuting on VOD in just two weeks. This caused several theater chains to boycott it. While this opening is certainly soft, it is worth noting that it had the highest per screen average of anything in the top ten.

The big surprise of the weekend was the performance of Danny Boyle’s Steve Jobs, which came with sizzling Oscar buzz. I predicted it would win the weekend with $19.6 million, but it stumbled with a seventh place showing at $7.1 million – obviously way less than expected. Jobs will hope for small declines over subsequent frames as the studio hopes it can possibly play well into awards season.

Guillermo del Toro’s dud Crimson Peak was eighth in its sophomore frame with $5.6 million (I said $6.1M) for a lackluster $22M gross.

Positions nine and ten belonged to holdovers that I didn’t predict would be there – The Intern with $3.7 million and Sicario with $2.8 million. Their respective grosses stand at $64 and $39M.

That’s because two other new flicks had disastrous debuts. Bill Murray’s critically reviled Rock the Kasbah made just $1.4 million compared to my extremely generous $7.8M estimate and the live-action version of 80s cartoon Jem and the Holograms posted a pathetic $1.3 million (I said $4.1M). That’s good for respective 13th and 15th position debuts. Ouch.

And that’s all for now, my friends! Until next time…

Todd’s October Oscar Predictions: Best Supporting Actor

This evening on the blog, we continue forward with my second round of predictions (October edition) for Oscar nominees in the six major categories. Yesterday it was Supporting Actress and now we’re onto Supporting Actor. Since my initial round of predictions over a month and a half ago, much has changed.

In fact, only two of my predicted five nominees from that original prognostication post made the cut this time around: Tom Hardy in The Revenant and Mark Rylance for Bridge of Spies. 

Gone are Bradley Cooper in David O. Russell’s Joy and I’ve substituted him for his supporting costar Robert De Niro. It’s worth noting that Russell’s last three films resulted in Supporting nods for Christian Bale in The Fighter (who won), De Niro in Silver Linings Playbook, and Cooper in American Hustle. In other words, Russell’s actors get nominated.

Also out are Harvey Keitel in Youth and Kurt Russell for The Hateful Eight, though both remain possibilities. Word around Hollywood is that Samuel L. Jackson is the standout male performance in Hateful Eight, though it’s unclear at this juncture whether he’ll be campaigned for in lead or supporting.

Joining the fray are Michael Keaton for Spotlight (whose nomination seems the most assured at this juncture) and Benicio del Toro for his acclaimed role in Sicario.

Other possibilities are plentiful, including Mark Ruffalo for Spotlight. If that were to occur and Keaton got recognized as well, it’d be the first time in 24 years that two actors from the same picture were nominated in this category. That was Bugsy when both Harvey Keitel and Ben Kingsley got nods.

This is a very fluid category, as evidenced by the major changes I’ve made since early September and we’ll see if it continues along its unpredictable path when my third round of predictions comes in November.

TODD’S BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR PREDICTIONS (ROUND TWO)

Benicio del Toro, Sicario

Robert De Niro, Joy

Tom Hardy, The Revenant

Michael Keaton, Spotlight

Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies

Other Possibilities:

Bradley Cooper, Joy

Paul Dano, Love and Mercy

Joel Edgerton, Black Mass

Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation

Samuel L. Jackson, The Hateful Eight

Harvey Keitel, Youth

Seth Rogen, Steve Jobs

Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight

Kurt Russell, The Hateful Eight

Jacob Tremblay, Room

I’ll be back with Best Actress tomorrow!

Box Office Predictions: October 16-18

It’s a very bustling weekend at the box office as four new titles make their debuts: Steven Spielberg’s Cold War thriller Bridge of Spies with Tom Hanks, family friendly Goosebumps, Guillermo del Toro’s gothic horror offering Crimson Peak and faith based football drama Woodlawn. You can read my detailed prediction posts on each one of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/10/08/bridge-of-spies-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/10/08/goosebumps-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/10/08/crimson-peak-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/10/12/woodlawn-box-office-prediction/

Even with the slew of high profile premieres, they all could fall behind Ridley Scott’s critically acclaimed and audience pleasing The Martian, which looks to three peat. After a great second weekend, the pic is likely to only lose about a third of its audience once again. As I see it, only Bridge of Spies and or Goosebumps could dethrone it, but I’m doubtful.

As for other holdovers, Hotel Transylvania 2 should continue its stellar run in week #4 while box office bomb Pan will probably lose over half its audience, leaving it flailing in sixth place.

And with that, my top 6 projections for what promises to be a fascinating weekend:

  1. The Martian

Predicted Gross: $24.6 million (representing a drop of 33%)

2. Bridge of Spies

Predicted Gross: $21.2 million

3. Goosebumps

Predicted Gross: $19.4 million

4. Hotel Transylvania 2

Predicted Gross: $16 million (representing a drop of 31%)

5. Crimson Peak

Predicted Gross: $15.8 million

6. Pan

Predicted Gross: $6.8 million (representing a drop of 55%)

My prediction for Woodlawn, opening on a relatively low 1500 screens, is $4.3 million and that probably puts it in ninth place.

BOX OFFICE RESULTS (OCTOBER 9-11)

As expected, The Martian kept rolling along with its impressive numbers while new entries to the weekend all failed to gain an audience. The Ridley Scott/Matt Damon sci fi blockbuster added $37 million to its coffers, right on pace with my $36.8M estimate to bring its total to $108 million (matching its reported budget).

Hotel Transylvania 2 remained in runner up position with $20.4 million, in line with my $21.7M projection for a three week haul of $116 million.

Another family offering, Peter Pan origin tale Pan, stumbled badly to the tune of a $15.3 million start. This is below my $17.6M prediction. With a rumored budget of $150 million, this represents a massive bomb for Warner Bros and it will struggle to even earn a third of that budget domestically. Ouch.

Holdovers populated spots 4-6: The Intern with $8.6 million compared to my $8M estimate to bring its total to $49 million; Sicario with $7.5 million compared to my $6.9M estimate to bring its total to nearly $27 million; and Maze Runner: The Scorch Trials with $5.3 million for a $70 million overall gross. I incorrectly had Maze outside the top six.

That’s because I gave far too much credit to Robert Zemeckis’s The Walk, which expanded nationwide and posted a paltry seventh place showing of only $3.7 million. I predicted $11.9M. Oops. This easily gave the Oscar winning director of Forrest Gump the worst opening of his long career and pretty much snuffed out any chance of the critically respected effort garnering Academy Awards attention.

Finally, the Andrew Garfield/Michael Shannon thriller 99 Homes opened in limited fashion. I said it’d eek out a $1.8 million gross, but it managed just $647,000.

And that’ll do it for now, folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: October 9-11

October rolls along at the box office as family friendly Pan debuts while The Walk expands and critically approved thriller 99 Homes opens in more limited fashion. You can read my detailed prediction posts on Pan and The Walk right here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/10/01/pan-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/10/02/the-walk-box-office-prediction/

Pan has been the subject of many negative reviews and it doesn’t help that Hotel Transylvania 2 should still be playing quite well with its intended audience in weekend #3. That leads me to predict that the Peter Pan story will only manage a third place showing out of the gate. The Walk actually had a fairly disappointing roll out in its limited IMAX release and I have it doing low double digits for a fourth place premiere. 99 Homes with Andrew Garfield and Michael Shannon is only opening on approximately 500 screens. It’s flying under the radar and I have it pegged for a gross of $1.8 million, far outside the top five (and maybe even top ten).

As for holdovers, Ridley Scott’s The Martian with Matt Damon blasted off to a terrific debut and word of mouth is strong. I don’t believe its drop will be very big and it should easily repeat at #1, with Hotel Transylvania 2 continuing its impressive haul in the runner up spot. The Intern and Sicario should battle for the five spot.

And with that, a top 6 predictions for the weekend:

  1. The Martian

Predicted Gross: $36.8 million (representing a drop of 32%)

2. Hotel Transylvania 2

Predicted Gross: $21.7 million (representing a drop of 34%)

3. Pan

Predicted Gross: $17.6 milion

4. The Walk

Predicted Gross: $11.9 million

5. The Intern

Predicted Gross: $8 million (representing a drop of 32%)

6. Sicario

Predicted Gross: $6.9 million (representing a drop of 43%)

Box Office Results (October 2-4)

As mentioned, The Martian exceeded expectations, capitalizing on stellar reviews for a $54.3 million opening (well beyond my $40.3M estimate). That’s good for the second biggest October premiere of all time, just behind Gravity from 2013. It’s also Matt Damon’s second highest debut after The Bourne Ultimatum. 

Adam Sandler’s animated sequel Hotel Transylvania 2 held up better than my prognostication with $32.9 million in its sophomore frame, compared to my $26.2M forecast. It’s made $90 million so far.

Border thriller Sicario had a pretty sturdy wide release with $12 million, not quite matching my $13M prediction. Strong reviews helped and it hopes to experience fairly small declines in subsequent weekends.

In its second weekend, The Intern with Anne Hathaway and Robert De Niro held up well with $11.6 million compared to my $10.5M estimate and its two week total stands at $36 million.

Maze Runner: The Scorch Trials was fifth with $7.8 million, in line with my $8.2M forecast to bring its gross to $63 million. Sixth place belonged to Black Mass with $5.8 million ($52M total). I incorrectly had it outside the top six because I predicted Everest would be in the spot. It was seventh with $5.6 million (below my $7.7M estimate) to brings its underwhelming total to $33 million.

And that’ll do it for now, friends! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: October 2-4

Two new adult themed titles compete against the second weekend of the record setting animated pic Hotel Transylvania 2. They are the Ridley Scott sci fi pic The Martian with Matt Damon and border crime thriller Sicario, which has earned great reviews and expands nationwide after a stellar limited release. You can peruse my detailed individual prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/09/26/the-martian-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/09/27/sicario-box-office-prediction/

The Martian shouldn’t have much trouble opening #1, though my prediction is a bit below what some other prognosticators have it pegged at. I don’t believe it’ll reach the September record that the Transylvania sequel just set, but you never know (more on that below).

Meanwhile, the aforementioned Transylvania 2 should drop to second with all other holdovers dipping in the low to mid 40s range. That could mean a close competition for the five spot between Maze Runner: The Scorch Trials and Everest while the Anne Hathaway/Robert De Niro comedy The Intern should have fourth to itself.

That means I’m predicting Sicario will open third in its expanded roll out.

And with that, a top six predictions for this weekend:

  1. The Martian

Predicted Gross: $40.3 million

2. Hotel Transylvania 2 

Predicted Gross: $26.2 million (representing a drop of 45%)

3. Sicario

Predicted Gross: $13 million

4. The Intern

Predicted Gross: $10.5 million (representing a drop of 40%)

5. Maze Runner: The Scorch Trials

Predicted Gross: $8.2 million (representing a drop of 44%)

6. Everest

Predicted Gross: $7.7 million (representing a drop of 42%)

Box Office Results (September 25-27)

As mentioned, the Adam Sandler animated sequel Hotel Transylvania 2 beat its own predecessor’s record for the biggest September debut in box office history. I incorrectly had it grossing less out of the gate than the original three years ago, but it took in a terrific $47.5 million, blasting past my $34.1M estimate.

The Intern had a stellar debut with $17.7 million, a bit under my $19 million prediction and represents a nice mid size hit for Ms. Hathaway and Mr. De Niro.

Maze Runner: The Scorch Trials dipped to third in its second weekend with $14.2 million, a little under my $16.1M prediction and the YA sequel stands at $51 million.

The mountain climbing action thriller Everest expanded nationally and posted results that were less than expected. It earned $13.2 million, below my $17.6M estimate.

Johnny Depp’s Black Mass rounded out the top five in weekend #2 with $11 million, under my $13.5M forecast. Its two week total is at $42 million.

Finally, Eli Roth’s long delayed horror flick The Green Inferno opened in ninth place with just $3.5 million – though it did exceed my $2.5M prediction.

And that’s all for now, friends! Until next time…

Sicario Box Office Prediction

After a successful limited run in theaters and following very positive buzz stemming from the film festival circuit, the border crime thriller Sicario expands nationwide this Friday. From Prisoners director Denis Villeneuve, the acclaimed pic stars Emily Blunt, Benicio del Toro, and Josh Brolin. As mentioned, reviews have been strong and it currently sits at 92% on Rotten Tomatoes. There’s even some Oscar buzz going for it and there’s already been a spin-off film greenlit based on del Toro’s character.

While all these signs are encouraging, there will be serious competition from Ridley Scott’s The Martian for adult moviegoers and it’s an open question as to how well Sicario performs when it ventures out of larger metro markets.

I believe a debut is most likely in the low to mid teens and the pic could perform well with minor declines in subsequent weekends.

Sicario opening weekend prediction: $13 million

For my prediction on The Martian, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/09/26/the-martian-box-office-prediction/

Oscar Watch: Sicario

This weekend, crime thriller Sicario played on six screens and posted the highest theater per screen average so far in 2015. The film, which stars Emily Blunt, Benicio del Toro and Josh Brolin has been riding on a wave of solid buzz since it debuted on the festival circuit. Sicario comes from director Denis Villeneuve, who made 2013’s acclaimed Prisoners and will soon helm the Blade Runner sequel.

If Sicario continues its impressive box office performance (it opens wide October 2), it could be in the conversation for a Best Picture nomination. The same could be said for Blunt in the Actress race and del Toro (who won in 2000 for Traffic) in Supporting Actor. As has been discussed on this blog before, while Blunt is getting raves – the category of Actress is especially crowded this year and it could hinder her. I would say that as it currently stands, it may be a long shot for any nominations to occur, but it’s certainly a possibility. It also may not hurt that its border patrol theme is in the news a lot thanks to certain Presidential candidates.