The 28th Annual Screen Actors Guild (SAG) Awards airs February 27th and the nominations will be unveiled this Wednesday (01/12). It’s often a more reliable precursor to the acting nominations for the Oscars. Therefore it’s time to make my picks on who and what will grab the nods later this week.
As a reminder, the big prize here is Best Ensemble and not Best Picture. That often favors films with a larger cast though a potent mix with four or more actors can make the cut. Similar to Golden Globe estimates and my forthcoming final Oscar picks, I’ll give you my five contenders along with a runner-up and second alternate with a bit of commentary.
Here we go!
Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
Predicted Nominees:
Belfast
CODA
Don’t Look Up
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story
Runner-Up: Licorice Pizza
Second Alternate: King Richard
Commentary – The three Best Picture frontrunners for the Academy (Belfast, Power, West Side) all seem like pretty safe bets here. If anything is vulnerable, it might be the quartet from Power considering it has a smaller troupe of performers. There’s also some chatter that West Side could be vulnerable because it sent out late screeners for voters, but I’ll give it the benefit of the doubt. For the other two spots, I’m favoring Don’t Look Up‘s large and sprawling cast should make it in. I’ll go with the CODA clan as well though I could easily see Licorice Pizza, King Richard or The Harder They Fall making the cut.
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role
Predicted Nominees:
Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter
Lady Gaga, House of Gucci
Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos
Kristen Stewart, Spencer
Runner-Up: Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers
Second Alternate: Alana Haim, Licorice Pizza
Commentary – The last four years has seen a 4/5 match with SAG and Oscar when it comes to leading ladies. My current Academy lineup is the same as here (though that’s certainly subject to change). Quite honestly, I tried to make room for Cruz but couldn’t land on who to take out. The most vulnerable could be Chastain, Gaga, or Kidman. I also wouldn’t completely discount Jennifer Hudson for Respect and would have her ranked above Rachel Zegler (West Side Story) for SAG.
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in Leading Role
Predicted Nominees:
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog
Peter Dinklage, Cyrano
Andrew Garfield, Tick, Tick… Boom!
Will Smith, King Richard
Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth
Runner-Up: Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up
Second Alternate: Nicolas Cage, Pig
Commentary – Just as I am with the Oscars – feeling confident about Cumberbatch, Garfield, Smith, and Washington. It’s that fifth slot that’s tricky. I’ll give Dinklage the ever so slight nod over Leo (who’s currently my fifth with the Academy). I also wouldn’t be surprised to see Cage sneak in.
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
Predicted Nominees:
Caitriona Balfe, Belfast
Ariana DeBose, West Side Story
Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog
Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard
Rita Moreno, West Side Story
Runner-Up: Marlee Matlin, CODA
Second Alternate: Ann Dowd, Mass
Commentary – I’m banking on the Guild not passing up a chance to put the legendary Moreno in with her costar DeBose. Speaking of Passing, you’ll notice Ruth Negga (my fifth Oscar player at the moment) isn’t here but she could certainly surface.
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
Predicted Nominees:
Jamie Dornan, Belfast
Mike Faist, West Side Story
Ciaran Hinds, Belfast
Troy Kotsur, CODA
Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog
Runner-Up: Jared Leto, House of Gucci
Second Alternate: Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza
Commentary – Bit of a guessing game as Supporting Actor is a head scratcher for 2021 pics. Going with both Belfast boys and the love continuing for West Side Story with Faist. As for the winner, that could be between Kotsur and Smit-McPhee (I also wouldn’t discount his costar Jesse Plemons getting in). If Leto misses here (and with the Globes omission), his Oscar chances probably disappear.
Outstanding Performance by a Stunt Ensemble
Predicted Nominees:
Black Widow
Dune
No Time to Die
Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings
Spider-Man: No Way Home
Runner-Up: The Matrix Resurrections
Second Alternate: The Harder They Fall
This means I’m projecting 4 nominations apiece for Belfast, The Power of the Dog, and West Side Story. I’ll have a recap up Wednesday with my reaction and how well (or not) I did!
P.S. – Golden Globe reactions coming up this evening…
My first 2022 predictions for the 2021 Oscar season comes on the eve of the Golden Globes and four days before SAG announces their nominees. By my next update, we will have those useful bits of information to consider.
If you missed my predictions for the Globe winners, you can find them here:
I’ll have my forecast for the SAG nominees up on the blog tomorrow so stay tuned! In the meantime, there are numerous changes to point out:
I keep going back and forth on whether momentum for Japan’s Drive My Car is still revving up or perhaps stalling. I’ve taken it out of my ten predicted BP contenders and put The Tragedy of Macbeth back in.
While I continue to struggle with all 5 Best Actress hopefuls representing non BP nominees, I’m back to that lineup. That means Lady Gaga (House of Gucci) returns with Alana Haim (Licorice Pizza) falling out.
For many weeks, I’ve held to same Best Actor five. That changes today with Leonardo DiCaprio (Don’t Look Up) joining the quintet and Peter Dinklage (Cyrano) dropping.
In Supporting Actor, both Belfast boys are in so Jamie Dornan is back in the mix. That takes out Jesse Plemons (The Power of the Dog).
Drive My Car is also out for Adapted Screenplay with Dune in.
The Beyonce vs. Billie battle in Original Song switches places. Beyonce’s track “Be Alive” from King Richard has been my #1 for months, but I’ve now vaulted Billie’s “No Time to Die” to top position.
You can read all the movement below and keep an eye out for a Globes recap and SAG prognostications.
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Power of the Dog (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)
2. Belfast (PR: 2) (E)
3. West Side Story (PR: 3) (E)
4. Dune (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Licorice Pizza (PR: 4) (-1)
6. King Richard (PR: 6) (E)
7. Don’t Look Up (PR: 9) (+2)
8. CODA (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 11) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
11. Drive My Car (PR: 10) (-1)
12. The Lost Daughter (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Nightmare Alley (PR: 13) (E)
14. Being the Ricardos (PR: 12) (-2)
15. Spider-Man: No Way Home (PR: 15) (E)
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)
2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune (PR: 2) (E)
3. Steven Spielberg, West Side Story (PR: 3) (E)
4. Kenneth Branagh, Belfast (PR: 4) (E)
5. Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Drive My Car (PR: 6) (E)
7. Adam McKay, Don’t Look Up (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Joel Coen, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Guillermo del Toro, Nightmare Alley (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Sian Heder, CODA (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Asghar Farhadi, A Hero
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Kristen Stewart, Spencer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 2) (E)
3. Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos (PR: 3) (E)
4. Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter (PR: 4) (E)
5. Lady Gaga, House of Gucci (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Alana Haim, Licorice Pizza (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Rachel Zegler, West Side Story (PR: 7) (E)
8. Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers (PR: 8) (E)
9. Jennifer Hudson, Respect (PR: 9) (E)
10. Emilia Jones, CODA (PR: 10) (E)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Will Smith, King Richard (PR: 1) (E)
2. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)
3. Andrew Garfield, Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 3) (E)
4. Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 4) (E)
5. Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Peter Dinklage, Cyrano (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Nicolas Cage, Pig (PR: 7) (E)
8. Joaquin Phoenix, C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 8) (E)
9. Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Clifton Collins, Jr., Jockey (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ariana DeBose, West Side Story (PR: 1) (E)
2. Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)
3. Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Caitriona Balfe, Belfast (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Ruth Negga, Passing (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ann Dowd, Mass (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Marlee Matlin, CODA (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Rita Moreno, West Side Story (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Jessie Buckley, The Lost Daughter (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Judi Dench, Belfast (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Meryl Streep, Don’t Look Up
Cate Blanchett, Nightmare Alley
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)
2. Troy Kotsur, CODA (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Ciaran Hinds, Belfast (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Jamie Dornan, Belfast (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Jared Leto, House of Gucci (PR: 7) (E)
8. Mike Faist, West Side Story (PR: 8) (E)
9. J.K. Simmons, Being the Ricardos (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Ben Affleck, The Tender Bar (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Licorice Pizza (PR: 1) (E)
2. Belfast (PR: 2) (E)
3. Don’t Look Up (PR: 4) (+1)
4. King Richard (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Being the Ricardos (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mass (PR: 6) (E)
7. C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 7) (E)
8. Parallel Mothers (PR: 9) (+1)
9. A Hero (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The French Dispatch (PR: 10) (E)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)
2. West Side Story (PR: 2) (E)
3. CODA (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Lost Daughter (PR: 4) (E)
5. Dune (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Drive My Car (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Passing (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Last Duel (PR: 10) (E)
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Encanto (PR: 1) (E)
2. Flee (PR: 2) (E)
3. Luca (PR: 4) (+1)
4. The Mitchells vs. the Machines (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Raya and the Last Dragon (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Belle (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Summit of the Gods (PR: 7) (E)
8. Vivo (PR: 8) (E)
9. Ron’s Gone Wrong (PR: 9) (E)
10. My Sunny Maad (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Sing 2
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Drive My Car (PR: 1) (E)
2. A Hero (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Worst Person in the World (PR: 3) (E)
4. Flee (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Hand of God (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. I’m Your Man (PR: 6) (E)
7. Compartment No. 6 (PR: 7) (E)
8. Great Freedom (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Prayers for the Stolen (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Good Boss (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Lamb
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Flee (PR: 1) (E)
2. Summer of Soul (PR: 3) (+1)
3. The Rescue (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Procession (PR: 4) (E)
5. Ascension (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Attica (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The First Wave (PR: 6) (-1)
8. President (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Faya Dayi (PR: 8) (-1)
10. In the Same Breath (PR: 10) (E)
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)
3. West Side Story (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 4) (E)
5. Belfast (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nightmare Alley (PR: 6) (E)
7. Licorice Pizza (PR: 7) (E)
8. The French Dispatch (PR: 8) (E)
9. No Time to Die (PR: Not Ranked)
10. C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Cruella (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune (PR: 2) (E)
3. Spencer (PR: 5) (+2)
4. West Side Story (PR: 3) (-1)
5. House of Gucci (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Cyrano (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Nightmare Alley (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The French Dispatch (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Licorice Pizza (PR: 9) (E)
10. Last Night in Soho (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
The Tragedy of Macbeth
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. West Side Story (PR: 2) (E)
3. Belfast (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Power of the Dog (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Licorice Pizza (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Don’t Look Up (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Nightmare Alley (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 8) (E)
9. King Richard (PR: 7) (-2)
10. The French Dispatch (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Being the Ricardos
Last Night in Soho
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. House of Gucci (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 3) (E)
4. Cruella (PR: 4) (E)
5. Nightmare Alley (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Coming 2 America (PR: 5) (-1)
7. West Side Story (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Cyrano (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Suicide Squad (PR: 7) (-2)
10. No Time to Die (PR: 10) (E)
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)
3. Don’t Look Up (PR: 3) (E)
4. Spencer (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Parallel Mothers (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. The French Dispatch (PR: 4) (-2)
7. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 6) (-1)
8. King Richard (PR: 8) (E)
9. Encanto (PR: 9) (E)
10. Being the Ricardos (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Green Knight
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “No Time to Die” from No Time to Die (PR: 2) (+1)
2. “Be Alive” from King Richard (PR: 1) (-1)
3. “Dos Oruguitas” from Encanto (PR: 3) (E)
4. “Down to Joy” from Belfast (PR: 4) (E)
5. “Just Look Up” from Don’t Look Up (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Beyond the Shore” from CODA (PR: 6) (E)
7. “Guns Go Bang” from The Harder They Fall (PR: 7) (E)
8. “Here I Am” from Respect (PR: 9) (+1)
9. “So May We Start” from Annette (PR: 8) (-1)
10. “Right Where I Belong” from Brian Wilson: Long Promised Road (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
“Somehow You Do” from Four Good Days
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. Nightmare Alley (PR: 3) (+1)
3. West Side Story (PR: 2) (-1)
4. The French Dispatch (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Belfast (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Cyrano (PR: 7) (E)
8. Spencer (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Power of the Dog (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Cruella (PR: Not Ranked)
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. West Side Story (PR: 2) (E)
3. Belfast (PR: 3) (E)
4. No Time to Die (PR: 4) (E)
5. Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Spider-Man: No Way Home (PR: 6) (E)
7. A Quiet Place Part II (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Power of the Dog (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Matrix Resurrections (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Last Night in Soho (PR: 10) (E)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. Spider-Man: No Way Home (PR: 2) (E)
3. Godzilla vs. Kong (PR: 4) (+1)
4. The Matrix Resurrections (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Free Guy (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings (PR: 5) (-1)
7. No Time to Die (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Eternals (PR: 8) (E)
9. Ghostbusters: Afterlife (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Black Widow (PR: 10) (E)
And that boils down to these pictures garnering these numbers for nominations:
11 Nominations
Dune
10 Nominations
Belfast
9 Nominations
The Power of the Dog, West Side Story
5 Nominations
Don’t Look Up, King Richard, Licorice Pizza
4 Nominations
The Tragedy of Macbeth
3 Nominations
CODA, Flee, House of Gucci, Spencer, Tick, Tick… Boom!
2 Nominations
Being the Ricardos, Cruella, Encanto, The Eyes of Tammy Faye, The Lost Daughter, Nightmare Alley, No Time to Die
1 Nomination
Ascension, Drive My Car, Free Guy, The French Dispatch, Godzilla vs. Kong, The Hand of God, A Hero, Luca, The Matrix Resurrections, The Mitchells vs. the Machines, Parallel Mothers, Passing, Procession, Raya and the Last Dragon, The Rescue, Spider-Man: No Way Home, Summer of Soul, The Worst Person in the World
My final Oscar predictions of the calendar year brings changes in three major categories:
Ryusuke Hamaguchi’s Drive My Car, in addition to spending its second week at #1 in International Feature Film, pulls into the top ten for Best Picture. That’s at the expense of The Tragedy of Macbeth. I toyed with the idea of removing Don’t Look Up (which has drawn wildly mixed reactions from audiences and critics). I’m keeping it in as its most vocal supporters could keep Adam McKay’s satire in the mix.
In Best Actress, I’ve had a nagging suspicion that the quintet of Kristen Stewart, Jessica Chastain, Nicole Kidman, Olivia Colman, and Lady Gaga may not be the final five. Why? Mainly because I don’t have any of their movies getting BP nods. Since the Academy expanded to 5-10 nominees in that big race, there hasn’t been a year where the acting nominees didn’t represent at least one Best Picture nominee. That was in 2009. If you still went with the previously mentioned five, it might be wise to consider Spencer or Being the Ricardos or The Lost Daughter making the 10 BP contenders. I’m not prepared to put any of that trio in at the moment. Therefore – I’m dropping Gaga and elevating Alana Haim (Licorice Pizza). It could also be Rachel Zegler (West Side Story).
I’m going with a somewhat surprise nominee (perhaps two) in Supporting Actor. I still have Bradley Cooper (Pizza) making the cut and now I’m putting in Jesse Plemons (The Power of the Dog). This knocks out Jamie Dornan for Belfast. Last year, we saw a shocker when Lakeith Stanfield (Judas and the Black Messiah) made the supporting five. Power‘s potency (I have it as the favorite to take BP) could sweep Plemons in along with his costar Kodi Smit-McPhee (my #1). That could be a repeat of 2020 when Daniel Kaluuya won for Judas and Stanfield was in the race.
You can read all the movement below and my predictions will continue into the new year!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Power of the Dog (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)
2. Belfast (PR: 2) (E)
3. West Side Story (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Licorice Pizza (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Dune (PR: 3) (-2)
6. King Richard (PR: 6) (E)
7. CODA (PR: 7) (E)
8. Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 8) (E)
9. Don’t Look Up (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Drive My Car (PR: 12) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
11. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 9) (-2)
12. Being the Ricardos (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Nightmare Alley (PR: 11) (-2)
14. The Lost Daughter (PR: 14) (E)
15. Spider-Man: No Way Home (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
A Hero
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)
2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune (PR: 2) (E)
3. Steven Spielberg, West Side Story (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Kenneth Branagh, Belfast (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Drive My Car (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Joel Coen, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 7) (E)
8. Guillermo del Toro, Nightmare Alley (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Asghar Farhadi, A Hero (PR: 9) (E)
10. Adam McKay, Don’t Look Up (PR: 10) (E)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Kristen Stewart, Spencer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 2) (E)
3. Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos (PR: 3) (E)
4. Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Alana Haim, Licorice Pizza (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Lady Gaga, House of Gucci (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Rachel Zegler, West Side Story (PR: 7) (E)
8. Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Jennifer Hudson, Respect (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Emilia Jones, CODA (PR: 10) (E)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Will Smith, King Richard (PR: 1) (E)
2. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)
3. Andrew Garfield, Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 3) (E)
4. Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 4) (E)
5. Peter Dinklage, Cyrano (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Nicolas Cage, Pig (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Joaquin Phoenix, C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Clifton Collins, Jr., Jockey (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Bradley Cooper, Nightmare Alley
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ariana DeBose, West Side Story (PR: 1) (E)
2. Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)
3. Caitriona Balfe, Belfast (PR: 3) (E)
4. Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard (PR: 4) (E)
5. Ruth Negga, Passing (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Marlee Matlin, CODA (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Rita Moreno, West Side Story (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Ann Dowd, Mass (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Meryl Streep, Don’t Look Up (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Cate Blanchett, Nightmare Alley (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ciaran Hinds, Belfast (PR: 2) (E)
3. Troy Kotsur, CODA (PR: 3) (E)
4. Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jamie Dornan, Belfast (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Jared Leto, House of Gucci (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Mike Faist, West Side Story (PR: 8) (E)
9. Ben Affleck, The Tender Bar (PR: 7) (-2)
10. J.K. Simmons, Being the Ricardos (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jason Isaacs, Mass
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Licorice Pizza (PR: 1) (E)
2. Belfast (PR: 2) (E)
3. King Richard (PR: 3) (E)
4. Don’t Look Up (PR: 4) (E)
5. Being the Ricardos (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mass (PR: 8) (+2)
7. C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 7) (E)
8. A Hero (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Parallel Mothers (PR: 10) (+1)
10. The French Dispatch (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)
2. West Side Story (PR: 2) (E)
3. CODA (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Lost Daughter (PR: 4) (E)
5. Drive My Car (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dune (PR: 6) (E)
7. Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Passing (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 7) (-2)
10. The Last Duel (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Nightmare Alley
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Encanto (PR: 1) (E)
2. Flee (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Mitchells vs. the Machines (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Luca (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Raya and the Last Dragon (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Belle (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Summit of the Gods (PR: 7) (E)
8. Vivo (PR: 8) (E)
9. Ron’s Gone Wrong (PR: 9) (E)
10. Sing 2 (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Where Is Anne Frank
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Drive My Car (PR: 1) (E)
2. A Hero (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Worst Person in the World (PR: 3) (E)
4. Flee (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Hand of God (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. I’m Your Man (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Compartment No. 6 (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Prayers for the Stolen (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Great Freedom (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Lamb (PR: 10) (E)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Flee (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Rescue (PR: 2) (E)
3. Summer of Soul (PR: 3) (E)
4. Procession (PR: 4) (E)
5. Attica (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The First Wave (PR: 6) (E)
7. Ascension (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Faya Dayi (PR: 8) (E)
9. President (PR: 7) (-2)
10. In the Same Breath (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Velvet Underground
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)
3. West Side Story (PR: 4) (+1)
4. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Belfast (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nightmare Alley (PR: 6) (E)
7. Licorice Pizza (PR: 7) (E)
8. The French Dispatch (PR: 9) (+1)
9. C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Spencer (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Cruella (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune (PR: 2) (E)
3. West Side Story (PR: 3) (E)
4. House of Gucci (PR: 4) (E)
5. Spencer (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nightmare Alley (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Cyrano (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Last Night in Soho (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Licorice Pizza (PR: 7) (-2)
10. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
The French Dispatch
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. West Side Story (PR: 2) (E)
3. Belfast (PR: 3) (E)
4. Don’t Look Up (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Licorice Pizza (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Power of the Dog (PR: 5) (-1)
7. King Richard (PR: 7) (E)
8. Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 8) (E)
9. Being the Ricardos (PR: 9) (E)
10. Last Night in Soho (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Nightmare Alley
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. House of Gucci (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 3) (E)
4. Cruella (PR: 4) (E)
5. Coming 2 America (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nightmare Alley (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Suicide Squad (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Cyrano (PR: 7) (-1)
9. West Side Story (PR: 9) (E)
10. No Time to Die (PR: 10) (E)
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)
3. Don’t Look Up (PR: 4) (+1)
4. The French Dispatch (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Spencer (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Parallel Mothers (PR: 7) (E)
8. King Richard (PR: 8) (E)
9. Encanto (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Green Knight (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Harder They Fall
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Be Alive” from King Richard (PR: 1) (E)
2. “No Time to Die” from No Time to Die (PR: 2) (E)
3. “Dos Oruguitas” from Encanto (PR: 3) (E)
4. “Down to Joy” from Belfast (PR: 4) (E)
5. “Just Look Up” from Don’t Look Up (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Beyond the Shore” from CODA (PR: 6) (E)
7. “Guns Go Bang” from The Harder They Fall (PR: 7) (E)
8. “So May We Start” from Annette (PR: 9) (+1)
9. “Here I Am” from Respect (PR: 8) (-1)
10. “Somehow You Do” from Four Good Days (PR: 10) (E)
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. West Side Story (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Nightmare Alley (PR: 2) (-1)
4. The French Dispatch (PR: 4) (E)
5. Belfast (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Cyrano (PR: 10) (+3)
8. The Power of the Dog (PR: 8) (E)
9. Spencer (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Cruella (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Being the Ricardos
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. West Side Story (PR: 2) (E)
3. Belfast (PR: 3) (E)
4. No Time to Die (PR: 4) (E)
5. Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Spider-Man: No Way Home (PR: 6) (E)
7. A Quiet Place Part II (PR: 9) (+2)
8. The Matrix Resurrections (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The Power of the Dog (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Last Night in Soho (PR: 10) (E)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. Spider-Man: No Way Home (PR: 3) (+1)
3. The Matrix Resurrections (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Godzilla vs. Kong (PR: 4) (E)
5. Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Free Guy (PR: 6) (E)
7. Ghostbusters: Afterlife (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Eternals (PR: 8) (E)
9. No Time to Die (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Black Widow (PR: 10) (E)
And this all equates to these numbers of nominations for said movies:
10 Nominations
Belfast, Dune
9 Nominations
The Power of the Dog, West Side Story
6 Nominations
Licorice Pizza
5 Nominations
Don’t Look Up, King Richard
3 Nominations
CODA, Drive My Car, Flee, Spencer, Tick, Tick… Boom!
2 Nominations
Being the Ricardos, Cruella, Encanto, The Eyes of Tammy Faye, The French Dispatch, House of Gucci, The Lost Daughter, No Time to Die, The Tragedy of Macbeth
1 Nomination
Attica, Coming 2 America, Cyrano, Godzilla vs. Kong, The Hand of God, A Hero, Luca, The Matrix Resurrections, The Mitchells vs. the Machines, Nightmare Alley, Passing, Procession, Raya and the Last Dragon, The Rescue, Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings, Spider-Man: No Way Home, Summer of Soul, The Worst Person in the World
My pre-Christmas Oscar predictions implements no changes in Director, the acting races, or Original Screenplay. However, the Best Picture landscape is altered slightly as Tick Tick… Boom! is back in the top 10 with Nightmare Alley falling out.
In Adapted Screenplay, Ryusuke Hamaguchi’s Drive My Car makes the cut in place of Dune. In fact, Car is driving up higher in Picture and Director (where I have it placed in Other Possibilities for the first time). It’s also listed at #1 in International Feature Film over previous frontrunner A Hero. Don’t be surprised if Car keeps rising (it seems to be the foreign entry that could crash the BP derby).
Earlier this week, the shortlists came out in 7 feature film categories: International Feature Film, Documentary Feature, Makeup and Hairstyling, Original Score, Original Song, Sound, Visual Effects. I wrote about that activity and it obviously changes the landscape in each of the races:
All the movement is contained below and have a Happy Holidays y’all!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)
2. Belfast (PR: 2) (E)
3. Dune (PR: 4) (+1)
4. West Side Story (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Licorice Pizza (PR: 5) (E)
6. King Richard (PR: 6) (E)
7. CODA (PR: 7) (E)
8. Tick Tick… Boom! (PR: 11) (+3)
9. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Don’t Look Up (PR: 8) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
11. Nightmare Alley (PR: 9) (-2)
12. Drive My Car (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Being the Ricardos (PR: 12) (-1)
14. The Lost Daughter (PR: 13 (-1)
15. A Hero (PR: 14) (-1)
Dropped Out:
C’Mon C’Mon
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)
2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune (PR: 2) (E)
3. Kenneth Branagh, Belfast (PR: 3) (E)
4. Steven Spielberg, West Side Story (PR: 4) (E)
5. Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Guillermo del Toro, Nightmare Alley (PR: 6) (E)
7. Joel Coen, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Drive My Car (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Asghar Farhadi, A Hero (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Adam McKay, Don’t Look Up (PR: 7) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Maggie Gyllenhaal, The Lost Daughter
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Kristen Stewart, Spencer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 2) (E)
3. Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos (PR: 3) (E)
4. Lady Gaga, House of Gucci (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jennifer Hudson, Respect (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Rachel Zegler, West Side Story (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Alana Haim, Licorice Pizza (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Emilia Jones, CODA (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Will Smith, King Richard (PR: 1) (E)
2. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)
3. Andrew Garfield, Tick Tick… Boom! (PR: 3) (E)
4. Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 4) (E)
5. Peter Dinklage, Cyrano (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nicolas Cage, Pig (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Joaquin Phoenix, C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up (PR: 8) (E)
9. Bradley Cooper, Nightmare Alley (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ariana DeBose, West Side Story (PR: 1) (E)
2. Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Caitriona Balfe, Belfast (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard (PR: 4) (E)
5. Ruth Negga, Passing (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ann Dowd, Mass (PR: 6) (E)
7. Marlee Matlin, CODA (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Rita Moreno, West Side Story (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Cate Blanchett, Nightmare Alley (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Meryl Streep, Don’t Look Up (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Judi Dench, Belfast
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ciaran Hinds, Belfast (PR: 2) (E)
3. Troy Kotsur, CODA (PR: 3) (E)
4. Jamie Dornan, Belfast (PR: 4) (E)
5. Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jared Leto, House of Gucci (PR: 6) (E)
7. Ben Affleck, The Tender Bar (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Mike Faist, West Side Story (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Jason Isaacs, Mass (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
J.K. Simmons, Being the Ricardos
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Licorice Pizza (PR: 1) (E)
2. Belfast (PR: 2) (E)
3. King Richard (PR: 3) (E)
4. Don’t Look Up (PR: 4) (E)
5. Being the Ricardos (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. A Hero (PR: 8) (+2)
7. C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Mass (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The French Dispatch (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Parallel Mothers (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)
2. West Side Story (PR: 2) (E)
3. CODA (PR: 4) (+1)
4. The Lost Daughter (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Drive My Car (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dune (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Tick Tick… Boom! (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Passing (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Nightmare Alley (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Encanto (PR: 1) (E)
2. Flee (PR: 2) (E)
3. Luca (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Mitchells vs. the Machines (PR: 4) (E)
5. Belle (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Raya and the Last Dragon (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Summit of the Gods (PR: 7) (E)
8. Vivo (PR: 8) (E)
9. Ron’s Gone Wrong (PR: 9) (E)
10. Where Is Anne Frank (PR: 10) (E)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Drive My Car (PR: 2) (+1)
2. A Hero (PR: 1) (-1)
3. The Worst Person in the World (PR: 3) (E)
4. Flee (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Hand of God (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Compartment No. 6 (PR: 6) (E)
7. I’m Your Man (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Great Freedom (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Prayers for the Stolen (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Lamb (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Titane
Memoria
The Good Boss
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Flee (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Rescue (PR: 2) (E)
3. Summer of Soul (PR: 3) (E)
4. Procession (PR: 4) (E)
5. Attica (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The First Wave (PR: 5) (-1)
7. President (PR: 7) (E)
8. Faya Dayi (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Ascension (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Velvet Underground (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
The Lost Leonardo
Becoming Cousteau
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Power of the Dog (PR: 4) (+2)
3. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 3) (E)
4. West Side Story (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Belfast (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nightmare Alley (PR: 6) (E)
7. Licorice Pizza (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Spencer (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The French Dispatch (PR: 8) (-1)
10. C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 10) (E)
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Cruella (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune (PR: 3) (+1)
3. West Side Story (PR: 2) (-1)
4. House of Gucci (PR: 4) (E)
5. Nightmare Alley (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Spencer (PR: 6) (E)
7. Licorice Pizza (PR: 7) (E)
8. The French Dispatch (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Last Night in Soho (PR: 10) (+1)
10. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Cyrano
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. West Side Story (PR: 2) (E)
3. Belfast (PR: 3) (E)
4. Licorice Pizza (PR: 7) (+3)
5. The Power of the Dog (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Don’t Look Up (PR: 5) (-1)
7. King Richard (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Tick Tick… Boom! (PR: 8) (E)
9. Being the Ricardos (PR: 9) (E)
10. Nightmare Alley (PR: 10) (E)
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. House of Gucci (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 3) (E)
4. Cruella (PR: 4) (E)
5. Nightmare Alley (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Coming 2 America (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Cyrano (PR: 9) (+2)
8. The Suicide Squad (PR: Not Ranked)
9. West Side Story (PR: 8) (-1)
10. No Time to Die (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Spencer
Being the Ricardos
The Last Duel
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)
3. Spencer (PR: 3) (E)
4. Don’t Look Up (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The French Dispatch (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Parallel Mothers (PR: Not Ranked)
8. King Richard (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Encanto (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Harder They Fall (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Nightmare Alley
Cyrano
Being the Ricardos
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Be Alive” from King Richard (PR: 1) (E)
2. “No Time to Die” from No Time to Die (PR: 2) (E)
3. “Dos Oruguitas” from Encanto (PR: 3) (E)
4. “Down to Joy” from Belfast (PR: 4) (E)
5. “Just Look Up” from Don’t Look Up (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Beyond the Shore” from CODA (PR: 10) (+4)
7. “Guns Go Bang” from The Harder They Fall (PR: 7) (E)
8. “Here I Am” from Respect (PR: 6) (-2)
9. “So May We Start” from Annette (PR: 8) (-1)
10. “Somehow You Do” from Four Good Days (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
“Believe” from The Rescue
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. Nightmare Alley (PR: 3) (+1)
3. West Side Story (PR: 2) (-1)
4. The French Dispatch (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Belfast (PR: 6) (E)
7. Spencer (PR: 9) (+2)
8. The Power of the Dog (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Being the Ricardos (PR: 5) (-4)
10. Cyrano (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. West Side Story (PR: 2) (E)
3. Belfast (PR: 3) (E)
4. No Time to Die (PR: 4) (E)
5. Tick Tick… Boom! (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Spider-Man: No Way Home (PR: Not Ranked)
7. The Matrix Resurrections (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The Power of the Dog (PR: Not Ranked)
9. A Quiet Place Part II (PR: 9) (E)
10. Last Night in Soho (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Nightmare Alley
The Tragedy of Macbeth
The Last Duel
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Matrix Resurrections (PR: 2) (E)
3. Spider-Man: No Way Home (PR: 3) (E)
4. Godzilla vs. Kong (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Free Guy (PR: 8) (+2)
7. No Time to Die (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Eternals (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Ghostbusters: Afterlife (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Black Widow (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Don’t Look Up
Finch
And that works out to these films garnering these numbers for nominations:
10 Nominations
Belfast, Dune
9 Nominations
The Power of the Dog, West Side Story
5 Nominations
King Richard, Licorice Pizza, The Tragedy of Macbeth
4 Nominations
Don’t Look Up
3 Nominations
CODA, Flee, House of Gucci, Nightmare Alley, Tick Tick… Boom!
2 Nominations
Being the Ricardos, Cruella, Drive My Car, Encanto, The Eyes of Tammy Faye, The Lost Daughter, No Time to Die, Spencer
1 Nomination
Attica, Belle, Cyrano, The French Dispatch, Godzilla vs. Kong, The Hand of God, A Hero, Luca, The Matrix Resurrections, The Mitchells vs. the Machines, Passing, Procession, The Rescue, Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings, Spider-Man: No Way Home, Summer of Soul, The Worst Person in the World
It’s a big day for us Oscar prognosticators as the shortlists were revealed this afternoon. For the uninitiated, there are seven feature film races where the Academy releases contenders ranging from 10-15 nominees. For Original Score, Song, International Feature Film, and Documentary Feature – we are given 15 hopefuls. In Makeup and Hairstyling, Sound, and Visual Effects – the list is dwindled to 10.
Let’s walk thru them one by one and I’ll talk about some surprises and omissions!
Best Original Score
The 15 Contenders:
Being the Ricardos
Candyman
Don’t Look Up
Dune
Encanto
The French Dispatch
The Green Knight
The Harder They Fall
King Richard
The Last Duel
No Time to Die
Parallel Mothers
The Power of the Dog
Spencer
The Tragedy of Macbeth
Commentary:
Based on my latest Oscar forecast from December 15th, my five predicted nominees (Dune, The Power of the Dog, Spencer, Don’t Look Up, The Tragedy of Macbeth) all made the cut. So did my #7 (The French Dispatch), #9 (Being the Ricardos), and #10 (King Richard). The two omissions from my top 10: (6) Nightmare Alley and (8) Cyrano.
The biggest surprise might be the inclusion of Candyman.
Best Original Song
The 15 Contenders:
“So May We Start” from Annette
“Down to Joy” from Belfast
“Right Where I Belong” from Brian Wilson: Long Promised Road
“Automatic Woman” from Bruised
“Dream Girl” from Cinderella
“Beyond the Shore” from CODA
“The Anonymous Ones” from Dear Evan Hansen
“Just Look Up” from Don’t Look Up
“Dos Oruguitas” from Encanto
“Somehow You Do” from Four Good Days
“Guns Go Bang” from The Harder They Fall
“Be Alive” from King Richard
“No Time to Die” from No Time to Die
“Here I Am” from Respect
“Your Song Saved My Life” from Sing 2
Commentary:
My only top 10 ditty from 12/15 not on this list is “Believe” from The Rescue. I will note that “Every Letter” from Cyrano just dropped from my 10 last week and that turned out to be the correct call. This race still likely boils down to Beyonce (“Be Alive”) vs. Billie (“No Time to Die”).
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
The 10 Contenders:
Coming 2 America
Cruella
Cyrano
Dune
The Eyes of Tammy Faye
House of Gucci
Nightmare Alley
No Time to Die
The Suicide Squad
West Side Story
Commentary:
A race where Cyrano isn’t left out! Last week I had Spencer in fifth position and it falls out. Same goes for Being the Ricardos (7) and The Last Duel (10). This is a competition that could go for Dune, Gucci, or Tammy as I see it.
Best Sound
The 10 Contenders:
Belfast
Dune
Last Night in Soho
The Matrix Resurrections
No Time to Die
The Power of the Dog
A Quiet Place Part II
Spider-Man: No Way Home
Tick Tick… Boom!
West Side Story
Commentary:
My predicted five from six days ago (Dune, West Side Story, Belfast, No Time to Die, Tick Tick… Boom!) are intact as are my #6 (Matrix) and #9 (A Quiet Place Part II). Not so for the films I had at 7, 8 and 10: Nightmare Alley, The Tragedy of Macbeth, The Last Duel). Fresh off its gargantuan box office, the Spidey mention shows potential strength at making the shorter shortlist.
Best Visual Effects
The 10 Contenders:
Black Widow
Dune
Eternals
Free Guy
Ghostbusters: Afterlife
Godzilla vs. Kong
The Matrix Resurrections
No Time to Die
Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings
Spider-Man: No Way Home
Commentary:
All 4 MCU movies from 2021 make it in as do three Warner Bros spectacles (Dune, Matrix, Godzilla). I had Don’t Look Up placed fourth but it falls out. So does Finch which I rated seventh. This certainly increases the chances for Marvel to have at least two in the final five, but there’s Dune and then everything else in this race.
Best Documentary Feature
The 15 Contenders:
Ascension
Attica
Billie Eilish: The World’s A Little Blurry
Faya Dayi
The First Wave
Flee
In the Same Breath
Julia
President
Procession
The Rescue
Simple As Water
Summer of Soul
The Velvet Underground
Writing with Fire
Commentary:
It’s tough luck for my #9 (The Lost Leonardo) and #10 (Becoming Cousteau) as this fascinating race plays out between The Rescue, Flee, and Summer of Soul.
Best International Feature Film
The 15 Contenders:
Compartment No. 6
Drive My Car
Flee
The Good Boss
Great Freedom
The Hand of God
A Hero
Hive
I’m Your Man
Lamb
Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom
Playground
Plaza Catedral
Prayers for the Stolen
The Worst Person in the World
Commentary:
A Lamb and a Yak walk into the international competition, but the shocker of the day might be France’s Titane (which I had it 7th) not being mentioned. Same goes for #9 Memoria. This could be the category where Flee wins, but A Hero has been my #1. When I update my projections tomorrow, don’t be surprised if the rising Drive My Car from Japan takes over the top spot.
I’ll have fresh estimates in ALL feature categories posted tomorrow!
We have arrived at my post Golden Globe and Critics Choice Awards predictions for the Oscars! This week’s update comes with two significant #1 switches… starting with Best Picture.
For months, I’ve had Belfast positioned in the top spot. That changes today. Don’t get me wrong: the Kenneth Branagh coming-of-age drama could win Picture, Director, Supporting Actress and Actor, and Original Screenplay. However, for the first time, it’s not listed at #1 in any of those categories.
The #1 Picture slot could’ve gone to West Side Story, but I’m going with The Power of the Dog as it continues to nab critics prizes and place high atop best of lists. In Supporting Actress, I’m swapping Belfast‘s Caitriona Balfe for Ariana DeBose in West Side.
There’s other alterations in Picture and Supporting Actress. I’m putting Don’t Look Up back in the ten BP hopefuls despite its mixed reviews. That’s to the detriment of Tick Tick… Boom!
I’m also elevating Ruth Negga (Passing) in supporting over Rita Moreno (West Side Story).
You can read all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Power of the Dog (Previous Ranking: 2) (+1)
2. Belfast (PR: 1) (-1)
3. West Side Story (PR: 3) (E)
4. Dune (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Licorice Pizza (PR: 4) (-1)
6. King Richard (PR: 6) (E)
7. CODA (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Don’t Look Up (PR: 12) (+4)
9. Nightmare Alley (PR: 10) (+1)
10. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 7) (-3)
Other Possibilities:
11. Tick Tick… Boom! (PR: 9) (-2)
12. Being the Ricardos (PR: 13) (+1)
13. The Lost Daughter (PR: Not Ranked)
14. A Hero (PR: 14) (E)
15. C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 11) (-4)
Dropped Out:
House of Gucci
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)
2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Kenneth Branagh, Belfast (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Steven Spielberg, West Side Story (PR: 4) (E)
5. Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Guillermo del Toro, Nightmare Alley (PR: 6) (E)
7. Adam McKay, Don’t Look Up (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Asghar Farhadi, A Hero (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Joel Coen, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Maggie Gyllenhaal, The Lost Daughter (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Reinaldo Marcus Green, King Richard
Julia Ducournau, Titane
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Kristen Stewart, Spencer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 2) (E)
3. Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Lady Gaga, House of Gucci (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Rachel Zegler, West Side Story (PR: 6) (E)
7. Alana Haim, Licorice Pizza (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Jennifer Hudson, Respect (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Emilia Jones, CODA (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Will Smith, King Richard (PR: 1) (E)
2. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)
3. Andrew Garfield, Tick Tick… Boom! (PR: 3) (E)
4. Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 4) (E)
5. Peter Dinklage, Cyrano (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joaquin Phoenix, C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 6) (E)
7. Nicolas Cage, Pig (PR: 7) (E)
8. Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up (PR: 8) (E)
9. Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Bradley Cooper, Nightmare Alley (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Clifton Collins Jr., Jockey
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ariana DeBose, West Side Story (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Caitriona Balfe, Belfast (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Ruth Negga, Passing (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ann Dowd, Mass (PR: 6) (E)
7. Rita Moreno, West Side Story (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Marlee Matlin, CODA (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Judi Dench, Belfast (PR: 9) (E)
10. Cate Blanchett, Nightmare Alley (PR: 10) (E)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ciaran Hinds, Belfast (PR: 2) (E)
3. Troy Kotsur, CODA (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Jamie Dornan, Belfast (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jared Leto, House of Gucci (PR: 6) (E)
7. Mike Faist, West Side Story (PR: 7) (E)
8. Ben Affleck, The Tender Bar (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Jason Isaacs, Mass (PR: 9) (E)
10. J.K. Simmons, Being the Ricardos (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Richard Jenkins, The Humans
Jon Bernthal, King Richard
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Licorice Pizza (PR: 1) (E)
2. Belfast (PR: 2) (E)
3. King Richard (PR: 3) (E)
4. Don’t Look Up (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Being the Ricardos (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Mass (PR: 8) (+1)
8. A Hero (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Parallel Mothers (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The French Dispatch (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
The Worst Person in the World
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)
2. West Side Story (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Lost Daughter (PR: 3) (E)
4. CODA (PR: 4) (E)
5. Dune (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Drive My Car (PR: 10) (+4)
7. Tick Tick… Boom! (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Nightmare Alley (PR: 6) (-2)
9. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Passing (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
The Humans
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Encanto (PR: 1) (E)
2. Flee (PR: 2) (E)
3. Luca (PR: 4) (+1)
4. The Mitchells vs. the Machines (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Belle (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Raya and the Last Dragon (PR: 7) (+1)
7. The Summit of the Gods (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Vivo (PR: 8) (E)
9. Ron’s Gone Wrong (PR: 9) (E)
10. Where Is Anne Frank (PR: 10) (E)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. A Hero (PR: 1) (E)
2. Drive My Car (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Worst Person in the World (PR: 3) (E)
4. Flee (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Hand of God (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Compartment No. 6 (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Titane (PR: 6) (-1)
8. I’m Your Man (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Memoria (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Good Boss (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Prayers for the Stolen
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Flee (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Rescue (PR: 2) (E)
3. Summer of Soul (PR: 3) (E)
4. Procession (PR: 5) (+1)
5. The First Wave (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Attica (PR: 4) (-2)
7. President (PR: 8) (+1)
8. The Velvet Underground (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The Lost Leonardo (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Becoming Cousteau (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Ascension
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. West Side Story (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Power of the Dog (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Belfast (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nightmare Alley (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Spencer (PR: 8) (+1)
8. The French Dispatch (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Licorice Pizza (PR: 9) (E)
10. C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 10) (E)
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Cruella (PR: 1) (E)
2. West Side Story (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Dune (PR: 3) (E)
4. House of Gucci (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Nightmare Alley (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Spencer (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Licorice Pizza (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Cyrano (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The French Dispatch (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Last Night in Soho (PR: 10) (E)
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. West Side Story (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Belfast (PR: 2) (-1)
4. The Power of the Dog (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Don’t Look Up (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. King Richard (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Licorice Pizza (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Tick Tick… Boom! (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Being the Ricardos (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Nightmare Alley (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 2) (+1)
2. House of Gucci (PR: 1) (-1)
3. The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 3) (E)
4. Cruella (PR: 4) (E)
5. Spencer (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nightmare Alley (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Being the Ricardos (PR: 8) (+1)
8. West Side Story (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Cyrano (PR: 10) (+1)
10. The Last Duel (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)
3. Spencer (PR: 3) (E)
4. Don’t Look Up (PR: 7) (+3)
5. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nightmare Alley (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The French Dispatch (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Cyrano (PR: 8) (E)
9. Being the Ricardos (PR: 10) (+1)
10. King Richard (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Be Alive” from King Richard (PR: 1) (E)
2. “No Time to Die” from No Time to Die (PR: 2) (E)
3. “Dos Oruguitas” from Encanto (PR: 5) (+2)
4. “Down to Joy” from Belfast (PR: 3) (-1)
5. “Just Look Up” from Don’t Look Up (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Here I Am” from Respect (PR: 10) (+4)
7. “Guns Go Bang” from The Harder They Fall (PR: Not Ranked)
8. “So May We Start” from Annette (PR: 7) (-1)
9. “Believe” from The Rescue (PR: 9) (E)
10. “Beyond the Shore” from CODA (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
“Every Letter” from Cyrano
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. West Side Story (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Nightmare Alley (PR: 2) (-1)
4. The French Dispatch (PR: 4) (E)
5. Being the Ricardos (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Belfast (PR: 8) (+2)
7. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Cyrano (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Spencer (PR: 6) (-3)
10. The Power of the Dog (PR: 10) (E)
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. West Side Story (PR: 2) (E)
3. Belfast (PR: 3) (E)
4. No Time to Die (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Tick Tick… Boom! (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Matrix Resurrections (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Nightmare Alley (PR: 4) (-3)
8. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 7) (-1)
9. A Quiet Place Part II (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Last Duel (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Don’t Look Up
King Richard
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Matrix Resurrections (PR: 2) (E)
3. Spider-Man: No Way Home (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Don’t Look Up (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Godzilla vs. Kong (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings (PR: 6) (E)
7. Finch (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Free Guy (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Eternals (PR: 3) (-6)
10. No Time to Die (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Suicide Squad
My current estimates mean these movies nabbing these numbers in terms of nominations:
11 Nominations
Dune
10 Nominations
Belfast
9 Nominations
The Power of the Dog, West Side Story
6 Nominations
Don’t Look Up
5 Nominations
King Richard
4 Nominations
Licorice Pizza, The Tragedy of Macbeth
3 Nominations
Being the Ricardos, CODA, Flee, House of Gucci, Nightmare Alley, Spencer
2 Nominations
Cruella, Encanto, The Eyes of Tammy Faye, The Lost Daughter, No Time to Die, Tick Tick… Boom!
1 Nomination
Belle, Cyrano, Drive My Car, The First Wave, The French Dispatch, Godzilla vs. Kong, The Hand of God, A Hero, Luca, The Matrix Resurrections, The Mitchells vs. the Machines, Passing, Procession, The Rescue, Spider-Man: No Way Home, Summer of Soul, The Worst Person in the World
When Tobey Maguire’s Spider-Man trilogy kicked off nearly 20 years ago, it managed to nab a Best Visual Effects nod (losing to Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers). Two years later, the 2004 sequel won the prize. Since then, the five Spidey features that followed (Maguire’s third, both Andrew Garfield iterations, and the first two Tom Holland MCU flicks) didn’t show up in the race. Will Spider-Man: No Way Home change that?
The 27th entry (and fourth this year) in the Marvel Cinematic Universe debuts Friday and I have it pegged for the fourth best domestic opening of all time (behind Avengers: Endgame, Avengers: Infinity War, and Star Wars: The Force Awakens). The review embargo lifted early this morning and it stands at an impressive 97% on Rotten Tomatoes.
While nearly all critical notices are positive, I don’t think this will be the second MCU title to nab a Best Picture nomination behind Black Panther. While Best Sound is feasible, Home‘s best hope at Academy inclusion is in Visual Effects. MCU movies vying for that prize is not unusual. The inaugural pic in the biggest franchise of all (2008’s Iron Man) made the cut. So have Iron Man 2, The Avengers, Iron Man 3, Captain America: The Winter Soldier, Guardians of the Galaxy, Doctor Strange, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2, Infinity War, and Endgame. None have won.
So despite the last quintet of web slinger sagas not being honored for their effects, Home should have no problem? I don’t think it’s quite that simple. There are two Warner Bros sci-fi extravaganzas (Dune and The Matrix Resurrections) that should get in. That leaves three slots. Warner has another hopeful with Godzilla vs. Kong. Marvel itself has Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings and Eternals (and Black Widow to a lesser degree) vying for spots. Shang-Chi especially could get in (the Critics Choice Awards included it on their ballot). Don’t Look Up, Finch, and No Time to Die are other possibilities. It’s worth noting that whether Home makes the five, Dune is the very heavy favorite to take gold.
Here’s my hunch: by the time Academy voters cast their final votes, Home appears bound to have heightened box office numbers to their highest achievements in the pandemic era. That fact alone might get it some recognition from the Oscars and that would be for its visuals. Another interesting stat: of the ten current largest stateside premieres ever, only two (Avengers: Age of Ultron and Jurassic World) didn’t score at least one nomination from the Academy. That puts this in a decent position. My Oscar Predictions posts for the films of 2021 will continue…
The Critics Choice Awards, on the same day the Golden Globes did so, announced their nominations for their best of 2021. This is a particularly tricky group to predict and not for just normal reasons like who’s in and who’s out. The critics group seems to fluctuate the number of contenders in a given race year by year. There’s always ten for Best Picture but it can be anywhere from 5-7 on the others (this explains why I projected more nominees than there were in some competitions).
Belfast and West Side Story led the way with 11 nods apiece with Dune and The Power of the Dog close behind with 10. That foursome likely stands as the top quartet in the Oscars derby for the grand prize.
As I did with the Globes, let’s walk through each category and see how I did. FYI – I made predictions for Best Action and Sci-Fi/Horror Movie yesterday, but the critics apparently jettisoned those races. Overall I went 98 for 132.
Best Picture
Nominees: Belfast, CODA, Don’t Look Up, Dune, King Richard, Licorice Pizza, Nightmare Alley, The Power of the Dog, Tick Tick… Boom!, West Side Story
How I Did: 9/10
Comments: Only misstep here was having The Tragedy of Macbeth over Boom! For Nightmare Alley, this was a nice bounce back after being completely snubbed by HFPA this morning. The strongest hopeful might be Belfast but it’s no surefire winner.
Best Director
Nominees: Paul Thomas Anderson (Licorice Pizza), Kenneth Branagh (Belfast), Jane Campion (The Power of the Dog), Guillermo del Toro (Nightmare Alley), Steven Spielberg (West Side Story), Denis Villeneuve (Dune)
How I Did: 6/7
Comments: I got all the nominees correct, but I had an extra in there with Joel Coen (The Tragedy of Macbeth). Both the critics and the Globes weren’t kind to Macbeth. I don’t see Anderson or del Toro taking this award. The other four are feasible.
Best Actress
Nominees: Jessica Chastain (The Eyes of Tammy Faye), Olivia Colman (The Lost Daughter), Lady Gaga (House of Gucci), Alana Haim (Licorice Pizza), Nicole Kidman (Being the Ricardos), Kristen Stewart (Spencer)
How I Did: 5/7
Comments: Once again, I pegged 7 individuals but the number was six. Haim scored a nod over my picks of Jodie Comer (The Last Duel) and Rachel Zegler (West Side Story). This could go four directions in my view – Chastain, Gaga, Kidman, or Stewart.
Best Actor
Nominees: Nicolas Cage (Pig), Benedict Cumberbatch (The Power of the Dog), Peter Dinklage (Cyrano), Andrew Garfield (Tick Tick… Boom!), Will Smith (King Richard), Denzel Washington (The Tragedy of Macbeth)
How I Did: 6/7
Comments: Just like Director, I had the players right and not the number. My extra was Joaquin Phoenix for C’Mon C’Mon, who’s seeing his viability dwindle. Actor is shaping up to a showdown between Cumberbatch and Smith.
Best Supporting Actress
Nominees: Caitriona Balfe (Belfast), Ariana DeBose (West Side Story), Ann Dowd (Mass), Kirsten Dunst (The Power of the Dog), Aunjanue Ellis (King Richard), Rita Moreno (West Side Story)
How I Did: 5/6
Comments: Little surprised that Ruth Negga (Passing) missed with the critics and landed with the Globes. Rita Moreno takes her spot. This is a tough race to call with Balfe and DeBose as soft favorites.
Best Supporting Actor
Nominees: Jamie Dornan (Belfast), Ciaran Hinds (Belfast), Troy Kotsur (CODA), Jared Leto (House of Gucci), J.K. Simmons (Being the Ricardos), Kodi Smit-McPhee (The Power of the Dog)
How I Did: 4/6
Comments: In this wide open group, Smit-McPhee could reign supreme as he’s picking up early critics notices. I had Jon Bernthal (King Richard) and Jason Isaacs (Mass) in over Leto and Simmons.
Best Ensemble
Nominees: Belfast, Don’t Look Up, The Harder They Fall, Licorice Pizza, The Power of the Dog, West Side Story
How I Did: 4/6
Comments: Had CODA and Dune instead of Harder and Pizza. Belfast, Power, and Story all possible with this one.
Best Original Screenplay
Nominees: Being the Ricardos, Belfast, Don’t Look Up, King Richard, Licorice Pizza
How I Did: 4/6
Comments: Picked an extra nominee here too. Ricardos got in over C’Mon C’Mon and Mass. Like the Oscars, this should boil down to Belfast v. Pizza.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Nominees: CODA, Dune, The Lost Daughter, The Power of the Dog, West Side Story
How I Did: 4/6
Comments: Yet another extra nominee situation and I had The Last Duel (which came up empty-handed) and Macbeth instead of Dune. This race should go to the Dog.
Best Animated Feature
Nominees: Encanto, Flee, Luca, The Mitchells vs. the Machines, Raya and the Last Dragon
How I Did: 4/5
Comments: After its Globes snub, Mitchells factors in here. I had Belle as opposed to Raya (which had a good morning with HFPA and this). Encanto or Flee are the two probable takers.
Best Foreign Language Film
Nominees: Drive My Car, Flee, The Hand of God, A Hero, The Worst Person in the World
How I Did: 5/6
Comments: Had an extra selection with Titane (which didn’t score with Globes either). A Hero could win, but Car is coming up strong.
Best Cinematography
Nominees: Belfast, Dune, Nightmare Alley, The Power of the Dog, The Tragedy of Macbeth, West Side Story
How I Did: 6/6
Comments: Finally got one totally right! Dune v. Dog is the expectation.
Best Costume Design
Nominees: Cruella, Dune, House of Gucci, Nightmare Alley, West Side Story
How I Did: 4/6
Comments: Alley continued its better than expected showing to the detriment of Cyrano and The French Dispatch. This one could go to Cruella.
Best Editing
Nominees: Belfast, Dune, Licorice Pizza, The Power of the Dog, West Side Story
How I Did: 4/6
Comments: Pizza over my picks of Don’t Look Up and King Richard. This could be a Dune trophy or West Side Story.
Best Hair and Makeup
Nominees: Cruella, Dune, The Eyes of Tammy Faye, House of Gucci, Nightmare Alley
How I Did: 4/5
Comments: Alley over Spencer (which had a subpar day). Gucci could fashion a victory.
Best Production Design
Nominees: Belfast, Dune, The French Dispatch, Nightmare Alley, West Side Story
How I Did: 3/6
Comments: Didn’t pick Belfast or Dispatch. Incorrectly called Cyrano, Last Duel, and Macbeth. I expect this to be between Dune and Alley.
Best Original Score
Nominees: Don’t Look Up, Dune, Nightmare Alley, The Power of the Dog, Spencer
How I Did: 4/6
Comments: Didn’t have Don’t Look Up. Did have Dispatch and Macbeth. This goes to either Dune or Dog.
Best Original Song
Nominees: “Be Alive” from King Richard, “Dos Oruguitas” from Encanto, “Guns Go Bang” from The Harder They Fall, “Just Look Up” from Don’t Look Up, “No Time to Die” from “No Time to Die”
How I Did: 4/6
Comments: “Guns” gets in over “Beyond the Shore” from CODA and (somewhat surprisingly) “Down to Joy” from Belfast. “Alive” and Beyonce could reign supreme.
Best Visual Effects
Nominees: Dune, The Matrix Resurrections, Nightmare Alley, No Time to Die, Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings
How I Did: 2/7
Comments: Yikes. Where to begin? Only had Dune and Shang-Chi correct. I didn’t think Matrix had screened so therefore it was left off. There were seven nominees last year, but only five in 2021. The five I wrongly called were Don’t Look Up, Eternals, Finch, Free Guy, and Godzilla vs. Kong.
Best Comedy Movie
Nominees: Barb and Star Go to Vista Del Mar, Don’t Look Up, Free Guy, The French Dispatch, Licorice Pizza
How I Did: 5/6
Comments: Got ’em all but had an extra with Red Rocket. Thinking Pizza sounds good in this one.
Best Young Performer
Nominees: Jude Hill (Belfast), Cooper Hoffman (Licorice Pizza), Emilia Jones (CODA), Woody Norman (C’Mon C’Mon), Saniyya Sidney (King Richard), Rachel Zegler (West Side Story)
How I Did: 6/6
Comments: Ending on a high note! I’ll say Zegler, but don’t discount Hill.
That means these films achieved these numbers of nods:
11 Nominations
Belfast, West Side Story
10 Nominations
Dune, The Power of the Dog
8 Nominations
Licorice Pizza, Nightmare Alley
6 Nominations
Don’t Look Up, King Richard
4 Nominations
CODA, House of Gucci
3 Nominations
Being the Ricardos
2 Nominations
Cruella, Encanto, The Eyes of Tammy Faye, Flee, The French Dispatch, The Harder They Fall, The Lost Daughter, No Time to Die, Spencer, Tick Tick… Boom!, The Tragedy of Macbeth
1 Nomination
Barb and Star Go to Vista Del Mar, C’Mon C’Mon, Cyrano, Drive My Car, Free Guy, The Hand of God, A Hero, Luca, Mass, The Matrix Resurrections, The Mitchells vs. the Machines, Pig, Raya and the Last Dragon, Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings, The Worst Person in the World
I’ll have final predictions for this show shortly before its airing on January 9th!
As if the Golden Globe nominations coming tomorrow morning weren’t confusing enough to figure out, we also have the nods on the same day for the Critics Choice Awards. They’re frequently a reliable indicator of which way the Academy could go. However, there’s a caveat. While both branches choose ten pictures, the other races can fluctuate between 5-7 nominees. Generally Director and the lead acting races are seven while supporting and the screenplay derbies are six. The rest are a rather (needlessly unpredictable) mix. This show also contains some categories not seen in others like Best Ensemble, action, comedy, and sci-fi/horror pics, and Young Performer.
Here’s my best shot at projecting what the critics will do. The ceremony itself hits January 9th… the same day as the Globes. And as I did with the Globes, I’ll name runners-up and second alternates…
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
Belfast
CODA
Don’t Look Up
Dune
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog
The Tragedy of Macbeth
West Side Story
Runner-Up: Tick Tick… Boom!
Second Alternate: The Last Duel
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza
Kenneth Branagh, Belfast
Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
Joel Coen, The Tragedy of Macbeth
Guillermo del Toro, Nightmare Alley
Steven Spielberg, West Side Story
Denis Villeneuve, Dune
Runner-Up: Adam McKay, Don’t Look Up
Second Alternate: Asghar Farhadi, A Hero
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter
Jodie Comer, The Last Duel
Lady Gaga, House of Gucci
Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos
Kristen Stewart, Spencer
Rachel Zegler, West Side Story
Runner-Up: Alana Haim, Licorice Pizza
Second Alternate: Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
Nicolas Cage, Pig
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog
Peter Dinklage, Cyrano
Andrew Garfield, Tick Tick… Boom!
Joaquin Phoenix, C’Mon C’Mon
Will Smith, King Richard
Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth
Runner-Up: Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up
Second Alternate: Bradley Cooper, Nightmare Alley
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
Caitriona Balfe, Belfast
Ariana DeBose, West Side Story
Ann Dowd, Mass
Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog
Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard
Ruth Negga, Passing
Runner-Up: Marlee Matlin, CODA
Second Alternate: Rita Moreno, West Side Story
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
Jon Bernthal, King Richard
Jamie Dornan, Belfast
Ciaran Hinds, Belfast
Jason Isaacs, Mass
Troy Kotsur, CODA
Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog
Runner-Up: Jared Leto, House of Gucci
Second Alternate: Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza
Best Ensemble
Predicted Nominees:
Belfast
CODA
Don’t Look Up
Dune
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story
Runner-Up: King Richard
Second Alternate: Mass
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
Belfast
C’Mon C’Mon
Don’t Look Up
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
Mass
Runner-Up: Being the Ricardos
Second Alternate: The Worst Person in the World
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
CODA
The Last Duel
The Lost Daughter
The Power of the Dog
The Tragedy of Macbeth
West Side Story
Runner-Up: Dune
Second Alternate: Nightmare Alley
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
Belle
Encanto
Flee
Luca
The Mitchells vs. the Machines
Runner-Up: Raya and the Last Dragon
Second Alternate: The Summit of the Gods
Best Foreign Language Film
Predicted Nominees:
Drive My Car
Flee
The Hand of God
A Hero
Titane
The Worst Person in the World
Runner-Up: Parallel Mothers
Second Alternate: I’m Your Man
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
Belfast
Dune
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog
The Tragedy of Macbeth
West Side Story
Runner-Up: Spencer
Second Alternate: The French Dispatch
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
Cruella
Cyrano
Dune
The French Dispatch
House of Gucci
West Side Story
Runner-Up: Spencer
Second Alternate: Nightmare Alley
Best Editing
Predicted Nominees:
Belfast
Don’t Look Up
Dune
King Richard
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story
Runner-Up: Tick Tick… Boom!
Second Alternate: Licorice Pizza
Best Makeup
Predicted Nominees:
Cruella
Dune
The Eyes of Tammy Faye
House of Gucci
Spencer
Runner-Up: The Last Duel
Second Alternate: Nightmare Alley
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
Cyrano
Dune
The Last Duel
Nightmare Alley
The Tragedy of Macbeth
West Side Story
Runner-Up: The French Dispatch
Second Alternate: Belfast
Best Score
Predicted Nominees:
Dune
The French Dispatch
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog
Spencer
The Tragedy of Macbeth
Runner-Up: Don’t Look Up
Second Alternate: Cyrano
Best Song
Predicted Nominees:
“Be Alive” from King Richard
“Beyond the Shore” from CODA
“Dos Oruguitas” from Encanto
“Down to Joy” from Belfast
“Just Look Up” from Don’t Look Up
“No Time to Die” from No Time to Die
Runner-Up: “Every Letter” from Cyrano
Second Alternate: “Here I Am” from Respect
Best Visual Effects (note that it is unlikely that The Matrix Resurrections or Spider-Man: No Way Home screened in time for inclusion)
Predicted Nominees:
Don’t Look Up
Dune
Eternals
Finch
Free Guy
Godzilla vs. Kong
Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings
Runner-Up: The Green Knight
Second Alternate: The Suicide Squad
Best Action Movie
Predicted Nominees:
Black Widow
Dune
The Harder They Fall
No Time to Die
Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings
The Suicide Squad
Runner-Up: Nobody
Second Alternate: Eternals
Best Comedy
Predicted Nominees:
Barb and Star Go to Vista Del Mar
Don’t Look Up
Free Guy
The French Dispatch
Licorice Pizza
Red Rocket
Runner-Up: Cruella
Second Alternate: Zola
Best Sci-Fi/Horror Movie
Predicted Nominees:
Candyman
Dune
Finch
Free Guy
A Quiet Place Part II
Runner-Up: The Suicide Squad
Second Alternate: Titane
Best Young Performer
Predicted Nominees:
Cooper Hoffman, Licorice Pizza
Jude Hill, Belfast
Emilia Jones, CODA
Woody Norman, C’Mon C’Mon
Saniyya Sidney, King Richard
Rachel Zegler, West Side Story
Runner-Up: Millicent Simmonds, A Quiet Place Part II
Second Alternate: Demi Singleton, King Richard
This list means I’m projecting the following number of nominations for these movies:
12 Nominations
Dune
11 Nominations
Belfast, West Side Story
10 Nominations
The Power of the Dog
8 Nominations
King Richard
7 Nominations
Don’t Look Up, The Tragedy of Macbeth
6 Nominations
CODA
5 Nominations
Licorice Pizza, Nightmare Alley
3 Nominations
C’Mon C’Mon, Cyrano, Free Guy, The French Dispatch, House of Gucci, The Last Duel, Mass, Spencer
2 Nominations
Cruella, Encanto, The Eyes of Tammy Faye, Flee, The Lost Daughter, No Time to Die, Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings
1 Nomination
Barb and Star Go to Vista Del Mar, Being the Ricardos, Belle, Black Widow, Candyman, Drive My Car, Eternals, Finch, Godzilla vs. Kong, The Hand of God, The Harder They Fall, A Hero, Luca, The Mitchells vs. the Machines, Passing, Pig, A Quiet Place Part II, Red Rocket, The Suicide Squad, Tick Tick… Boom!, Titane, The Worst Person in the World
Reaction (along with that for the Globes) up tomorrow!
Bloggers Update (12/16): revising prediction up to $213.7M The Marvel Cinematic Universe is poised for the largest opening weekend of the pandemic era with Spider-Man: No Way Home out December 17th. In fact, it could debut higher than the current two record holders (Venom: Let There Be Carnage and Black Widow) combined. The 27th feature in the massive MCU franchise, this is officially the third entry in this Spider-Verse starring Tom Holland as the web-slinger (though he’s appeared in Avengers tales too). Jon Watts directs again and returning faces include Zendaya, Jacob Batalon, Jon Favreau, Marisa Tomei, and J.B. Smoove. That’s not all. Benedict Cumberbatch’s Doctor Strange is in on the action and villains of previous Spidey series come to the party. They include Alfred Molina, Willem Dafoe, Jamie Foxx, Thomas Haden Church, and Rhys Ifans. There’s also the possibility of other Spider-Men turning up.
This has led to No Way Home having the distinction of being the event film of the year with the most moneymaking potential. It might be the fourth MCU title in 2021 (after Widow, Shang-Chi, and Eternals), but it’s easily the most breathlessly anticipated. Early ticket sales indicate we’ll see grosses not witnessed since 2019. Two and a half years ago, Spider-Man: Far From Home kicked off during the long July 4th weekend and earned $185 million. 2017’s Homecoming made $117 million over a traditional Friday to Sunday rollout.
The pre-Christmas unveiling should prove to be shrewd timing. Some estimates having this going north of $200 million. That would be music to the ears of an industry that needs it after almost two long years. I’m not quite ready to declare $200 million and I’ll hedge with just under it.
Spider-Man: No Way Home opening weekend prediction: $213.7 million
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