January 17-19 Box Office Predictions

Blumhouse’s horror remake Wolf Man looks to dominate the box office charts this weekend while Keke Palmer and SZA headline the buddy comedy One of Them Days. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:

Wolf Man Box Office Prediction

One of Them Days Box Office Prediction

Sporting a meager budget of reportedly $7 million, Wolf Man from The Invisible Man director Leigh Whannell could see a gross close to $20 million (or at least low to mid teens in the worst case scenario). That should mean an easy perch at #1 under either scenario.

As for One of Them Days, it has a shot of exceeding my expectations. However, my mid to single digits take should mean a fourth or fifth place showing depending on the drops of holdovers.

Den of Thieves 2: Pantera was able to snag the top spot this past weekend (more on that below). It may slide to third with a mid 40s decline with Mufasa: The Lion King staying put in second if it drops in the low to mid 30s.

Here’s how I envision the high five shaking out:

1. Wolf Man

Predicted Gross: $16.6 million

2. Mufasa: The Lion King

Predicted Gross: $9.5 million

3. Den of Thieves 2: Pantera

Predicted Gross: $8.2 million

4. One of Them Days

Predicted Gross: $7.8 million

5. Sonic the Hedgehog 3

Predicted Gross: $6.6 million

Box Office Results (January 10-12)

Gerard Butler scored bragging rights as Den of Thieves 2: Pantera managed first position with $15 million. That’s ahead of my $13.3 million forecast and right in line with the $15.2 million that its 2018 predecessor achieved for its start. This is a much needed boost for Lionsgate after a 2024 littered with bombs including Borderlands, The Crow, and Megalopolis.

Mufasa: The Lion King, after two weeks atop the box office mountain, was runner-up with $14.2 million. That’s on pace with my $14.4 million call as the Disney property’s fortunes rose to $189 million after four weeks.

Sonic the Hedgehog 3 was third with $11.3 million, on target with my $10.9 million prediction. The Sega threequel has amassed $204 million during its four-week run.

Nosferatu was fourth with $6.8 million, falling below my $8.6 million estimate. This horror remake stands at $81 million after three weeks.

Finally, Moana 2 rounded out the top five with $6.5 million (I said $6.3 million). The Mouse House sequel has grossed $434 million in seven weeks.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

January 10-12 Box Office Predictions

Gerard Butler’s sequel Den of Thieves 2: Pantera is not the only fresh wide release this weekend, but I believe it’s the sole newbie that will be in the top 5. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on Thieves here:

Den of Thieves 2: Pantera Box Office Prediction

The follow-up to the 2018 heist thriller could see a start in the low double digits to possibly low teens. That’s not exactly an impressive start, but it should be enough to manage the #2 spot just behind Mufasa in this sleepy January frame.

That’s based on the assumption that current champ Mufasa: The Lion King falls in the low to mid 40s with Sonic the Hedgehog 3 dwindling closer to 50%. Nosferatu may experience the smallest decline (perhaps mid 30s) with Moana 2 rounding out the top five.

As mentioned, there are other newcomers debuting or expanding wide. That includes the Telugu-language action thriller Game Changer, The Last Showgirl with Pamela Anderson, and monkey themed Robbie Williams biopic Better Man. I’m not envisioning any breaking into that high five so here’s how I see the chart playing out:

1. Mufasa: The Lion King

Predicted Gross: $14.4 million

2. Den of Thieves 2: Pantera

Predicted Gross: $13.3 million

3. Sonic the Hedgehog 3

Predicted Gross: $10.9 million

4. Nosferatu

Predicted Gross: $8.6 million

5. Moana 2

Predicted Gross: $6.3 million

Box Office Results (January 3-5)

The New Year rang in with holiday leftovers and Mufasa: The Lion King continuing its perch atop the chart. Disney’s product took in $23.4 million, a shade below my $25.1 million forecast. The three-week total stands at $168 million.

Sonic the Hedgehog 3 was runner-up with $21.3 million, on target with my $20.9 million call. The Sega property’s three-week gross is $187 million.

Nosferatu was third in its sophomore frame with $13 million, in line with my $13.4 million projection. The 40% drop for the horror title is commendable and it’s up to $69 million with over $100 million when counting worldwide earnings.

Animated sequel Moana 2 was fourth with $12.4 million (I said $13 million) for a six-week tally of $425 million.

Wicked was fifth and it dropped further in its seventh outing than I figured at $9.9 million compared to my $14.2 million estimate. Nevertheless the Golden Globe recipient for Cinematic & Box Office Achievement has amassed $450 million.

Finally, A Complete Unknown was sixth in weekend #2 with $8.1 million. I went a little higher at $9.3 million as the Bob Dylan biopic has made $41 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Jan 3-5 Box Office Predictions

2025 at the box office begins with no new wide releases as holiday holdovers will dominate the charts and especially family-friendly ones.

While Sonic the Hedgehog 3 barely edged Mufasa: The Lion King for the Friday to Sunday portion of the Christmas weekend in their second outings, that should change in the new year. I have Disney’s Mufasa easing in the mid 30s with Sonic declining in the mid 40s. That would give the Mouse House the #1 spot.

The 3-5 slots could be close. I have Wicked rising from 4th to 3rd with a mid to high 20s decline and Nosferatu going from 3rd to 4th with a high 30s to low 40s dip after an impressive start (more on that below). Moana 2 would stay put in fifth with A Complete Unknown remaining in 6th (though it may only see a 20% or so reduction considering its impressive A Cinemascore grade).

Here’s how I envision it all shaking out:

1. Mufasa: The Lion King

Predicted Gross: $25.1 million

2. Sonic the Hedgehog 3

Predicted Gross: $20.9 million

3. Wicked

Predicted Gross: $14.2 million

4. Nosferatu

Predicted Gross: $13.4 million

5. Moana 2

Predicted Gross: $13 million

6. A Complete Unknown

Predicted Gross: $9.3 million

Box Office Results (December 27-29)

In what turned out to be a photo finish, Sonic the Hedgehog 3 claimed bragging rights as 2024 closed out with $37 million (topping my $32.1 million estimate) in its sophomore play. The Sega based threequel brought its two-week tally to $136 million.

Mufasa: The Lion King actually took first for the five-day Christmas to Sunday crown, but was second for the traditional weekend at $36.8 million. That’s well beyond my $26 million projection as the pre/sequel sits at $113 million.

Nosferatu had no trouble being the best performing newcomer in third with $21.6 million from Friday to Sunday and $40.8 million when factoring in Christmas Day and December 26th. The Robert Eggers gothic horror tale easily eclipsed my respective $14.8 million and $26.4 million forecasts. With a B- Cinemascore (not bad actually for its genre), its staying power might not be as potent as other leftovers on the chart.

Wicked was fourth with $19.7 million (I said $18.8 million) to bring its massive six-week haul to $424 million.

Moana 2 rounded out the top five with $18.9 million, ahead of my $16.9 million call. The Disney sequel has made $395 million after five weeks.

The Bob Dylan biopic A Complete Unknown with Timothée Chalamet had a respectable start in sixth with $11.6 million from Friday to Sunday and $23.2 million with the extra two days. I went higher at $16.3 million and $31.1 million, but it’s still a solid debut for the Oscar hopeful.

Nicole Kidman’s steamy thriller Babygirl was seventh with $4.3 million for the three-day and $7.2 million since its Wednesday beginning. That’s right on pace with my predictions of $4.2 million and $6.9 million.

Gladiator II took the 8th spot at $4 million for $163 million in six weeks. I projected that the Ridley Scott sequel would get a bit more at $5.7 million.

In its second go-round, Homestead from Angel Studios was ninth with $3 million (I said $4.6 million) to bring its total to $12 million.

Finally, true-life boxing drama The Fire Inside wasn’t exactly a knockout with audiences. It was 10th with $1.9 million from Friday to Sunday and $4.2 million since Wednesday. That didn’t even match my meager estimates of $2.9 million and $4.8 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

December 27-29 Box Office Predictions

Blogger’s Update (12/24): On the eve of its Christmas premiere, I’m bumping my A Complete Unknown from $13.1 million to $16.3 million from Friday to Sunday and from $24.4 million to $31.1 million from Wednesday to Sunday

The 2024 movie season concludes with Christmas falling on a Wednesday and four wide releases populating the marketplace that day. They are gothic horror remake Nosferatu from Robert Eggers, Bob Dylan biopic A Complete Unknown with Timothée Chalamet, steamy thriller Babygirl starring Nicole Kidman, and the true-life boxing tale The Fire Inside. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the quartet here:

Nosferatu Box Office Prediction

A Complete Unknown Box Office Prediction

Babygirl Box Office Prediction

The Fire Inside Box Office Prediction

The box office can get awfully unpredictable over the holidays and that might hold true this year. Many questions abound. There is a decent chance that the top four, despite the same number of newbies, remains the same. Sonic the Hedgehog 3, after ruling the charts surprisingly easily over Mufasa: The Lion King, may cling to 1st even though it should have the largest decline of holdovers. I’m projecting it falls over in the mid to high 40s with Mufasa only easing in the high 20s in their second weekends.

Other returnees, as can be the case over the Yuletide frame, may experience increases from the previous frame. If so, Wicked (which I have rising in the mid 30s) and Moana 2 (low 30s) may maintain the 3-4 positions.

I have Nosferatu and A Complete Unknown both in the low teens for Friday to Sunday and mid 20s when counting Wednesday and Thursday. Either of them could exceed my expectations and enter the top 4.

As for Babygirl and The Fire Inside, I have them in the bottom of top 10 with Gladiator II in seventh and Homestead in 8th.

Here’s how I have it all shaking out:

1. Sonic the Hedgehog 3

Predicted Gross: $32.1 million

2. Mufasa: The Lion King

Predicted Gross: $26 million

3. Wicked

Predicted Gross: $18.8 million

4. Moana 2

Predicted Gross: $16.9 million

5. A Complete Unknown

Predicted Gross: $16.3 million (Friday to Sunday); $31.1 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

6. Nosferatu

Predicted Gross: $14.8 million (Friday to Sunday); $26.4 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

7. Gladiator II

Predicted Gross: $5.7 million

8. Homestead

Predicted Gross: $4.6 million

9. Babygirl

Predicted Gross: $4.2 million (Friday to Sunday); $6.9 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

10. The Fire Inside

Predicted Gross: $2.9 million (Friday to Sunday); $4.8 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

Box Office Results (December 20-22)

Paramount/Sega, as mentioned, held the top spot with plenty of room to spare as Sonic the Hedgehog 3 made off with $60.1 million. That’s well under my generous $77.6 million estimate and falls well shorty of the $72 million achieved by part 2 in 2022. It’s still a respectable number considering that it should perform decently in the weeks ahead.

Disney’s Mufasa: The Lion King didn’t exactly roar in second with $35.4 million compared to my $51.3 million prediction. Considering the reported $200 million price tag, this is a letdown. However, families could be biding their time to make their trek to multiplex to view it.

Wicked was third with $14.1 million, a tad ahead of my $12.7 million take. The Broadway adaptation stands at $384 million after five weeks.

After three weeks in 1st, Moana 2 was fourth with $13.2 million (I said $12.5 million) to bring its tally to $359 million.

Angel Studios got their post-apocalyptic pic Homestead to the five spot with $6 million and I failed to do a projection for it.

Gladiator II was sixth with $4.5 million (I was right there at $4.6 million) for five-week earnings of $154 million.

Finally, Kraven the Hunter from the Spider-Man Universe tumbled 72% to $3 million in its sophomore frame compared to my $4.8 million projection. The stalled superhero tale has made a piddly $17 million thus far.

And that does it for now, folks! Have a wonderful holiday and until next time…

December 20-22 Box Office Predictions

Paramount and Disney respectively look to dominate the pre-Yuletide box office chart as Sonic the Hedgehog 3 and Mufasa: The Lion King invade theaters this weekend. The duo should easily lead a family friendly lineup as we enter the bustling holiday season. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:

Sonic the Hedgehog 3 Box Office Prediction

Mufasa: The Lion King Box Office Prediction

As explained in said posts, Sonic may have the advantage of having a more front loaded start than its Mouse House competitor. My mid to high 70s forecast has the Sega threequel slightly outperforming its 2022 predecessor.

Mufasa is highly unlikely to match the near $200 million opening haul that 2019’s live-action The Lion King roared with. While I have it achieving low to mid 50s out of the gate, this sequel/prequel appears set up to play well throughout the season.

After three weeks atop the charts, Moana 2 will relinquish the crown. It may even fall to fourth as I have it dipping in the 50% range and Wicked sliding in the mid 40s.

I’ll give the five spot to Kraven the Hunter after a DOA arrival (more on that below), but it could be Gladiator II. I have Kraven plummeting in the upper 50s with Gladiator easing in the low 40s.

And with that, here’s my take on the top 6:

1. Sonic the Hedgehog 3

Predicted Gross: $77.6 million

2. Mufasa: The Lion King

Predicted Gross: $51.3 million

3. Wicked

Predicted Gross: $12.7 million

4. Moana 2

Predicted Gross: $12.5 million

5. Kraven the Hunter

Predicted Gross: $4.8 million

6. Gladiator II

Predicted Gross: $4.6 million

Box Office Results (December 13-15)

November leftovers Moana 2 and Wicked continued to entertain kids and their parents. The former was 1st with $26.4 million, in line with my $27.5 million prediction. Disney’s sequel has amassed $337 million since its Thanksgiving bow.

Wicked took the runner-up spot at $22.6 million, in range with my $21.7 million call. The Broadway adaptation stands at $359 million after four weeks.

Another poorly reviewed Spider-Man Universe offering bombed with audiences as Kraven the Hunter was blanked in third with $11 million. I was more generous at $14.8 million. This comes months after Madame Web struggled to find its comic book fans. With a tepid C Cinemascore grade, crowds agreed with critics on its quality.

Gladiator II was fourth with $7.6 million. My estimate? $7.6 million! After four weeks, the tally stands at $145 million.

Finally, anime The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim did not pass muster with moviegoers in fifth with a paltry $4.5 million. I gave it more credit at $8 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Sonic the Hedgehog 3 Box Office Prediction

Paramount seeks mega millions at the multiplex as Sonic the Hedgehog 3 arrives December 20th. Based on the hugely successful video games series from Sega, Jeff Fowler is in the director’s chair just as he was for the first two. Ben Schwartz returns to voice the title character with Jim Carrey back as the live-action main antagonist. Other faces behind the mic include Colleen O’Shaughnessey, Idris Elba, and Keanu Reeves while James Marsden, Tika Sumpter, Krysten Ritter, Natasha Rothwell, and Shemar Moore are among the in front of camera participants.

Over President’s Day weekend in 2020, the first Sonic took in $70 million over the four-day holiday. It ended up with $149 million as its earnings were disrupted by the pandemic that followed shortly after. In April of 2022, the sequel made $72 million for its start and $190 million stateside.

Early word-of-mouth is encouraging suggesting this is the strongest of the trio. Despite direct competition from Mufasa: The Lion King, this should be crowned box office ruler of the pre-Christmas frame. I believe this continues the upward trajectory of the franchise with a high 70s sprint to the number one spot.

Sonic the Hedgehog 3 opening weekend prediction: $77.6 million

For my Mufasa: The Lion King prediction, click here:

Mufasa: The Lion King Box Office Prediction

Sonic the Hedgehog 2 Box Office Prediction

Right before COVID changed the world as we knew it, 2020’s Sonic the Hedgehog hit big at the box office. Based on the Sega video game franchise, it amassed the largest opening yet for its genre with $58 million from Friday to Sunday and $70 million for the four-day President’s Day frame.

Just over two years later, the sequel is out April 8th. Jeff Fowler returns to direct with Ben Schwartz reprising his vocal stylings at the title character. Colleen O’Shaughnessey and Idris Elba also lend their words while the live-action cast includes Jim Carrey, James Marsden, Tika Sumpter, Natasha Rothwell, Adam Pally, and Shemar Moore.

Budgeted at a reported $110 million, part 2 will hope to approach the $149 million earned domestically by the original. It should have no trouble opening in first place. With the short amount of time between entries, I believe it should manage a low 60s start.

Sonic the Hedgehog 2 opening weekend prediction: $62.5 million

For my Ambulance prediction, click here:

Ambulance Box Office Prediction

For my Everything Everywhere All at Once prediction, click here:

Everything Everywhere All at Once Box Office Prediction

Oscar Predictions: Sonic the Hedgehog 2

In February 2020, Sonic the Hedgehog (based on the popular Sega video game) was one of the last massive box office success stories before COVID shuttered theaters for months. Come Oscar time for the 93rd Academy Awards, one of the surprising omissions was Sonic being left off the shortlist for Best Visual Effects. After all, many of the tentpole projects for 2020 were pushed to 2021 or beyond (including Dune which won last weekend). Instead there were unexpected nominees such as Love and Monsters and The One and Only Ivan.

The new franchise will have another bite at the apple in 2022 with Sonic the Hedgehog 2, opening April 8th. Reviews are decent at 69% on Rotten Tomatoes (a bit stronger than the original’s 63%). Yet if part 1 couldn’t manage to break into VE in a weaker year, I wouldn’t anticipate the sequel making the cut this time around. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Sonic the Hedgehog Box Office Prediction

Blogger’s Note (02/12): My estimate has gone up significantly from $38.7 million to $51.8 million

Based on the Sega video game franchise that dates back nearly three decades, Sonic the Hedgehog premieres over the four-day Presidents Day frame next weekend. From first time director Jeff Fowler, the reported $95 million adventure comedy stars James Marsden, Jim Carrey, Tika Sumpter, and Ben Schwartz doing the motion capture work as the title character.

Movies based on video games have had a checkered box office history. This is a genre littered with disappointments from Super Mario Bros. to Double Dragon to Street Fighter to Assassin’s Creed. On the other hand, last summer’s Pokemon entry Detective Pikachu set a best ever opening for such pics with $54 million.

Sonic is certainly a known entity and family audiences could gravitate towards it now that Jumanji: The Next Level and (to a lesser extent) Dolittle are winding down. This is not expected to reach Pikachu levels, but a Friday to Monday haul in the high 30s to low 40s range is anticipated and likely.

Sonic the Hedgehog opening weekend prediction: $51.8 million (Friday to Monday estimate)