Indivisible Box Office Prediction

Blogger’s Note (10/22/18): Hours after publication of this post, a theater count of approximately 830 screens was revealed. That means a revision down from $1.7 million to just $1 million

The latest Pure Flix drama Indivisible hits theaters this weekend and the faith-based pic is likely to follow in the footsteps of the studio’s most recent output. It’s the true story of an Army chaplain stationed in Iraq. David G. Evans directs with a cast including Justin Bruening, Sarah Drew, Jason Winston George, Madeline Carroll, and Michael O’Neill. I’m not sure how much of a coincidence it is, but many of the actors here have appeared on the long-running ABC hit “Grey’s Anatomy”.

We don’t have a theater count yet on Indivisible and that will be a determining factor in my prediction. However, looking at recent Pure Flix material, 1300-1600 screens is probable. That would fall in line with four of their releases in the past year: Same Kind of Different as Me, Samson, God’s Not Dead: A Light in Darkness, and last month’s Unbroken: Path to Redemption. Between those four pictures, their opening weekend grosses ranged between a consistent $1.9-$2.6 million. If this were to debut with less screens that, my forecast will be revised down.

I see no major reason to alter the formula much here. I’ll go on the lower end of that small spectrum since it’s not a sequel like God’s Not Dead and Unbroken.

Indivisible opening weekend prediction: $1 million

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JtD96nYOE3Q

For my Hunter Killer prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/10/16/hunter-killer-box-office-prediction/

For my Johnny English Strikes Again prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/10/17/johnny-english-strikes-again-box-office-prediction/

Box Office Predictions: October 27-29

Before an onslaught of high-profile November titles hit the market, October should close out rather quietly at the box office in this Halloween weekend. There are three new entries making their wide debuts: continuation of the Saw franchise Jigsaw, the Matt Damon starring/George Clooney directed crime comedy Suburbicon, and Miles Teller war drama Thank You for Your Service. You can peruse my detailed individual predictions posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/10/18/jigsaw-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/10/18/suburbicon-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/10/18/thank-you-for-your-service-box-office-prediction/

There are numerous factors that may contribute to this weekend being a slow one. The last frame of October is typically pretty ho-hum regardless. There’s also the matter of a little Netflix show called Stranger Things premiering that could divert eyeballs onto the small screen and not the large one.

The seven year lay-off between Saw pictures could cause a muted debut for Jigsaw. Its number should still be enough to nab the #1 spot, however. Boo 2! should slip to second. It’s worth noting that the original Boo dropped just 39% in its sophomore outing last year over the same Halloween weekend. I have this dipping just a bit more.

I’m not expecting much from Suburbicon or Service and they could end up in a close race with the second weekend of Geostorm (which I expect to have a big drop).

Bottom line: Thor: Ragnarok and A Bad Moms Christmas should awaken the charts when November comes and here are my top 5 projections for this weekend:

1. Jigsaw

Predicted Gross: $14.8 million

2. Boo 2! A Madea Halloween

Predicted Gross: $12.2 million (representing a drop of 42%)

3. Suburbicon

Predicted Gross: $7.3 million

4. Geostorm

Predicted Gross: $5.4 million (representing a drop of 60%)

5. Thank You for Your Service

Predicted Gross: $5.2 million

Box Office Results (October 20-22)

As expected, Tyler Perry’s Boo 2! A Madea Halloween topped the charts with $21.2 million, a tad under my $22.6 million prediction. It falls about $7 million short of its predecessor one year ago, but marks the sixth Madea feature to open #1.

Geostorm ranked highest among the five debuts with $13.7 million, above my $11.2M projection. However, with its massive reported $120 million budget, this is a serious flop for Warner Bros.

Happy Death Day dropped to third with $9.3 million, below my $11.8M take to bring its two-week total to $40 million. With only a $5 million budget, this is quite the cash cow for Blumhouse.

Blade Runner 2049 was fourth and I incorrectly had it outside the top 5. In weekend #3, it earned $7.3 million to bring its disappointing tally to $74 million.

Opening in fifth was the firefighter drama Only the Brave with a meager $6 million, which is on the low-end of expectations and well below my generous $10 million projection.

The Snowman with Michael Fassbender got a chilly reception from audiences in 8th place with just $3.3 million, way below my $8 million forecast.

Lastly, Same Kind of Different as Me flopped in 12th place, opening to $2.5 million. I was right on target with my $2.6 million estimate.

And that does it for now! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: October 20-22

Blogger’s Update (10/19): Making some further adjustments. Boo 2! from $23.8M to $22.6M, Only the Brave from the $12.3M to $10M, and Geostorm from $11.6M to $11.2M.

Blogger’s Update (10/18): I am revising some predictions. I now have Happy Death Day falling over 50% for a third place showing and am estimating The Snowman from $10.8 million to $8 million.

We have an extremely busy weekend ahead with four new pictures looking to join the top five. They are the Tyler Perry holiday themed sequel Boo 2! A Madea Halloween, firefighter drama Only the Brave, disaster action flick Geostorm, and Michael Fassbender thriller The Snowman. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/10/11/boo-2-a-madea-halloween-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/10/11/only-the-brave-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/10/12/geostorm-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/10/12/the-snowman-box-office-prediction/

While I don’t have Boo 2! earning quite as much as its predecessor from last October, it shouldn’t have much trouble debuting at #1 as Perry’s fan base should show up.

It’s the 2-5 spots that could be really interesting. Current champ Happy Death Day scored a terrific debut and may not even fall 50% due to the Halloween proximity and decent buzz.

Only the Brave is receiving positive reviews and I’m forecasting it will premiere slightly above both Geostorm and The Snowman. All in all, I only have $3.1 million separating the runner-up to first place and the five spot.

There is one other debut as the Pure Flix feature Same Kind of Different as Me with Greg Kinnear and Renee Zellweger opens on a fairly low 1250 screens. I don’t expect much from it and I’ll estimate a $2.6 million take.

And with that, my top 5 predictions for the weekend:

1. Boo 2! A Madea Halloween

Predicted Gross: $22.6 million

2. Happy Death Day

Predicted Gross: $11.8 million (representing a drop of 55%)

3. Geostorm

Predicted Gross: $11.2 million

4. Only the Brave

Predicted Gross: $10 million

5. The Snowman

Predicted Gross: $8 million

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Fvo0f2NrDyI

Box Office Results (October 13–15)

Friday the 13th was a lucky day and it was a lucky weekend for Happy Death Day, the latest hit from Blumhouse. The well-reviewed horror pic scared up a sizzling $26 million compared to my $20.6M projection, more than five times its tiny budget. With Split and Get Out having scored megabucks earlier this year for its studio, Blumhouse has announced itself as the premiere distributor for these genre titles.

Blade Runner 2049 dropped to second with $15.4 million. My prediction? $15.4 million! The sci fi epic sequel’s disappointing earnings sit at $60 million.

Jackie Chan’s The Foreigner opened at the greater end of expectations with a sturdy $13.1 million, easily eclipsing my $8.8M prediction.

It was fourth with $6 million. My prediction? $6 million! It’s made $314 million.

The Mountain Between Us rounded out the top five with $5.7 million. My prediction? $5.7 million! Its two week total is $20 million. So I’ll give myself a pat on the back for my holdover guesses this weekend!

Lastly, the Chadwick Boseman biopic Marshall opened rather quietly in 11th place with $3 million (I was a bit higher at $4M).

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