On day 2, the Venice Film Festival continues to showcase potential Oscar bait and today’s story belongs to Guillermo del Toro’s TheShapeofWater. Deemed a dark fantasy with lots of heart, Water has debuted to rave reviews with critics calling it the filmmaker’s best work since 2006’s Pan’sLabyrinth. That film received nominations for Best Foreign Language Film and Original Screenplay.
The Fox Searchlight production isn’t out stateside until December 8, but the overseas buzz already makes it a contender in several Academy races. The pic’s cast includes familiar faces, such as Michael Shannon, Richard Jenkins, Doug Jones, Michael Stuhlbarg, and Octavia Spencer. Yet it’s lead Sally Hawkins, whose performance as a mute janitor who befriends a strange creature, who is being singled out. She stands a fine shot at recognition in lead Actress and it would mark her second nomination (the first was for Supporting Actress for 2013’s BlueJasmine).
If Water manages to keep momentum generated from Venice through the year’s end, it’s entirely feasible that Picture, Director, and Original Screenplay (del Toro and Vanessa Taylor) could be in the mix as well.
Well folks – summer is winding down and on the movie calendar, that means fall ushers in Oscar contenders, film festivals, and all kinds of other eagerly awaited releases! Today on the blog, I bring you my 10 most awaited pictures of the season. Getting the list down to that number wasn’t exactly easy, so I’ll cheat a bit and mention some that just “missed the cut”. They include sequels (Kingsman: The Golden Circle, Thor: Ragnarok), star vehicles like American Made with Tom Cruise and Roman Israel, Esq. with Denzel Washington, and Academy contenders like Battle of the Sexes, The Greatest Showman, Suburbicon, Darkest Hour, All the Money in the World, and The Disaster Artist.
Yet here are the ten that my personal movie calendar is most looking forward to (listed alphabetically):
Blade Runner 2049
Release Date: October 6
35 years after Ridley Scott made his landmark sci-fi pic, Sicario and Arrival director Denis Villeneuve enters this visually stunning world with Ryan Gosling, Jared Leto, and Robin Wright and Harrison Ford returning as Deckard.
Downsizing
Release Date: December 22
It may not be out until Christmas, but buzz will be out soon for this Oscar hopeful as it screens in Venice in just days. Alexander Payne’s fantastic filmography includes Election, About Schmidt, Sideways, The Descendants, and Nebraska. His latest is a sci-fi comedy/drama starring Matt Damon, Kristin Wiig, Christoph Waltz, Alec Baldwin, Neil Patrick Harris, Jason Sudeikis, and (get used to hearing this name) Hong Chau, who’s already garnering Supporting Actress talk.
NO TRAILER AT PRESS TIME
It
Release Date: September 8
Fall essentially kicks off with this adaptation of one of Stephen King’s greatest works. Trailers for It looks scary as hell and it could compete for both biggest September debut ever and highest horror opening of all time.
Justice League
Release Date: November 17
DC’s version of The Avengers has been the subject of shaky buzz, but I’m curious to see how Batman, Aquaman, The Flash, and others meld together. Oh… there’s another one in the form of Gal Gadot’s Wonder Woman, who just happened to headline the summer’s unexpected largest domestic hit (beating out other superheroes like the Guardians and Spidey).
mother!
Release Date: September 15
Darren Aronofsky’s latest looks to be in the vein of his Oscar nominated Black Swan and that’s a very good thing. Jennifer Lawrence, Javier Bardem, Ed Harris, and Michelle Pfeiffer star and if this trailer is any indication, we’re in for something very intriguing.
Murder on the Orient Express
Release Date: November 10
Michelle Pfeiffer makes another appearance on this list as she’s part of an impressive ensemble embroiled in this adaptation of Agatha Christie’s famed novel. Kenneth Branagh directs himself in the lead as Hercule Poirot. Other familiar faces include Johnny Depp, Daisy Ridley, Penelope Cruz, Judi Dench, Willem Dafoe, and Josh Gad.
The Papers
Release Date: December 22
As in the Pentagon Papers and the Washington Post‘s battle with the Nixon administration to release them. You think this one has Oscar bait potential? It’s directed by Steven Spielberg and stars Meryl Streep and Tom Hanks.
NO TRAILER AT PRESS TIME
Phantom Thread
Release Date: December 27
Here’s how little is really known about this project… we’re not even sure Phantom Thread is its title. What do we know? It’s master filmmaker Paul Thomas Anderson’s latest and reunites him with his There Will Be Blood star Daniel Day-Lewis.
NO TRAILER AT PRESS TIME
The Shape of Water
Release Date: December 8
Visionary director Guillermo del Toro’s latest looks to be a visual and potentially dramatic winner judging from its trailer. Sally Hawkins and Michael Shannon star in this 1960s set tale of a woman’s friendship with a strange creature.
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Release Date: December 15
Last, but oh so far from the least. Rian Johnson takes over directorial duties for the year’s most anticipated release with Luke Skywalker (Mark Hamill) gaining significantly more screen time and Carrie Fisher making her final bow as Princess Leia.
And there you have it, folks! Let us look forward to a hopefully glorious autumn season…
It’s Thursday and that means my weekly Oscar predictions are here in the eight major categories. As with previous weeks, I’m listing the Top 25 possibilities for Best Picture and Top 15 for the other races, while showing the titles and performers I believe will currently be nominated. Plus – you can also track the movement of the rankings from the previous week to now.
Let’s get to it, shall we?
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Fences (PR: 4)
3. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 2)
4. Silence (PR: 3)
5. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 9)
6. Moonlight (PR: 5)
7. Lion (PR: 8)
8. Loving (PR: 6)
9. Hidden Figures (PR: 11)
Other Possibilities:
10. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 7)
11. Jackie (PR: 12)
12. Arrival (PR: 10)
13. Sully (PR: 14)
14. Live by Night (PR: 19)
15. The Birth of a Nation (PR: 13)
16. Hell or High Water (PR: 15)
17. 20th Century Women (PR: 16)
18. Allied (PR: 17)
19. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: Not Ranked)
20. Collateral Beauty (PR: 22)
21. The Jungle Book (PR: 25)
22. The Founder (PR: 20)
23. I, Daniel Blake (PR: 24)
24. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 23)
25. Passengers (PR: 18)
Dropped Out:
The Girl on the Train
Best Director
Predicted Nominees
1. Damien Chazelle, La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Ang Lee, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 2)
3. Martin Scorsese, Silence (PR: 3)
4. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 4)
5. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Barry Jenkins, Moonlight (PR: 5)
7. Jeff Nichols, Loving (PR: 7)
8. Garth Davis, Lion (PR: 10)
9. Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 8)
10. Denis Villenueve, Arrival (PR: 9)
11. Pablo Larrain, Jackie (PR: 11)
12. Theodore Melfi, Hidden Figures (PR: 12)
13. Clint Eastwood, Sully (PR: 14)
14. Ben Affleck, Live by Night (15)
15. Robert Zemeckis, Allied (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Nate Parker, The Birth of a Nation
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees
1. Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 1)
2. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 2)
3. Ryan Gosling, La La Land (PR: 6)
4. Joel Edgerton, Loving (PR: 3)
5. Tom Hanks, Sully (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joe Alwyn, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 5)
7. Dev Patel, Lion (PR: 7)
8. Will Smith, Collateral Beauty (PR: 12)
9. Michael Keaton, The Founder (PR: 8)
10. Andrew Garfield, Silence (PR: 14)
11. Matthew McConaughey, Gold (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Miles Teller, Bleed for This (PR: 15)
13. Nate Parker, The Birth of a Nation (PR: 10)
14. Dave Johns, I, Daniel Blake (PR: 13)
15. Ben Affleck, Live by Night (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jake Gyllenhaal, Nocturnal Animals
Bryan Cranston, Wakefield
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees
1. Emma Stone, La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Natalie Portman, Jackie (PR: 2)
3. Viola Davis, Fences (PR: 3)
4. Ruth Negga, Loving (PR: 4)
5. Annette Bening, 20th Century Women (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Amy Adams, Arrival (PR: 9)
7. Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 8)
8. Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures (PR: 10)
9. Isabelle Huppert, Elle (PR: 7)
10. Amy Adams, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 5)
11. Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane (PR: 11)
12. Emily Blunt, The Girl on the Train (PR: 12)
13. Jennifer Lawrence, Passengers (PR: 13)
14. Rooney Mara, Una (PR: 14)
15. Marion Cotillard, Allied (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Sally Hawkins, Maudie
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees
1. Liam Neeson, Silence (PR: 2)
2. Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 1)
3. Stephen Henderson, Fences (PR: 5)
4. Mahershala Ali, Moonlight (PR: 3)
5. Steve Martin, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sunny Pawar, Lion (PR: 15)
7. Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 7)
8. Aaron Eckhart, Bleed for This (PR: 14)
9. Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 8)
10. Aaron Eckhart, Sully (PR: 6)
11. Warren Beatty, Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 11)
12. Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water (PR: 9)
13. Timothy Spall, Denial (PR: 10)
14. Trevante Rhodes, Moonlight (PR: 12)
15. Kevin Costner, Hidden Figures (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Bill Nighy, Their Finest
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees
1. Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 1)
2. Naomie Harris, Moonlight (PR: 2)
3. Kristen Stewart, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 3)
4. Nicole Kidman, Lion (PR: 5)
5. Laura Linney, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures (PR: 6)
7. Margo Martindale, The Hollars (PR: 10)
8. Helen Mirren, Eye in the Sky (PR: 7)
9. Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women (PR: 8)
10. Bryce Dallas Howard, Gold (PR: 9)
11. Molly Shannon, Other People (PR: 12)
12. Helen Mirren, Collateral Beauty (PR: 15)
13. Haley Bennett, The Girl on the Train (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Aja Naomi King, The Birth of a Nation (PR: 11)
15. Julianne Moore, Maggie’s Plan (PR: 14)
Dropped Out:
Elle Fanning, 20th Century Women
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 2)
3. Moonlight (PR: 3)
4. Jackie (PR: 5)
5. Loving (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Hell or High Water (PR: 7)
7. 20th Century Women (PR: 6)
8. The Lobster (PR: 8)
9. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 13)
10. The Birth of a Nation (PR: 9)
11. Zootopia (PR: 10)
12. Gold (PR: Not Ranked)
13. I, Daniel Blake (PR: 11)
14. Collateral Beauty (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Allied (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Rules Don’t Apply
Passengers
Miss Sloane
Best Adapted Screenplay
1. Fences (PR: 1)
2. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 2)
3. Silence (PR: 4)
4. Lion (PR: 5)
5. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Hidden Figures (PR: 7)
7. Arrival (PR: 6)
8. Sully (PR: 8)
9. Live by Night (PR: 12)
10. The Girl on the Train (PR: 9)
11. Elle (PR: 10)
12. Love and Friendship (PR: 11)
13. Indignation (PR: 15)
14. Denial (PR: 13)
15. The Jungle Book (PR: 14)
And that’ll do it for my Oscar predictions this week! Until next time…
It’s Thursday and that means my weekly Oscar predictions in the eight major categories are here for your reading pleasure!
The Toronto Film Festival has ferreted out some would-be contenders, most notably Ewan McGregor’s American Pastoral which debuted to lackluster reviews. I had it at #9 last week for a Best Picture and it’s nowhere to be seen in the Top 25 now.
As I’ll do every week, I’m listing 25 possibilities for Best Picture along with 15 for Director, the Acting Races, and the Screenplay categories. I’m also noting the movement in the rankings among the contenders and what and who has dropped out.
Let’s go to it:
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees
1) La Land Land (Previous Ranking: 1)
2) Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 2)
3) Silence (PR: 3)
4) Fences (PR: 4)
5) Moonlight (PR: 5)
6) Loving (PR: 6)
7) Nocturnal Animals (PR: 8)
8) Lion (PR: 11)
9) Manchester by the Sea (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
10) Arrival (PR: 13)
11) Hidden Figures (PR: 15)
12) Jackie (PR: 12)
13) The Birth of a Nation (PR: 10)
14) Sully (PR: 16)
15) Hell or High Water (PR: 18)
16) 20th Century Women (PR: 14)
17) Allied (PR: 19)
18) Passengers (PR: 17)
19) Live by Night (PR: 25)
20) The Founder (PR: 21)
21) The Girl on the Train (PR: Not Ranked)
22) Collateral Beauty (PR: 23)
23) Hacksaw Ridge (PR: Not Ranked)
24) I, Daniel Blake (PR: Not Ranked)
25) The Jungle Book (PR: 22)
DROPPED OUT:
American Pastoral, Moana, Gold
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1) Damien Chazelle, La La Land (PR: 1)
2) Ang Lee, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 2)
3) Martin Scorsese, Silence (PR: 3)
4) Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 5)
5) Barry Jenkins, Moonlight (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6) Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 4)
7) Jeff Nichols, Loving (PR: 7)
8) Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 8)
9) Denis Villenueve, Arrival (PR: 10)
10) Garth Davis, Lion (PR: 11)
11) Pablo Larrain, Jackie (PR: 14)
12) Theodore Melfi, Hidden Figures (PR: 13)
13) Nate Parker, The Birth of a Nation (PR: 9)
14) Clint Eastwood, Sully (PR: Not Ranked)
15) Ben Affleck, Live by Night (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Ewan McGregor, American Pastoral
Mike Mills, 20th Century Women
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1) Casey Affleck, Manchster by the Sea (PR: 2)
2) Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 1)
3) Joel Edgerton, Loving (PR: 3)
4) Tom Hanks, Sully (PR: 6)
5) Joe Alwyn, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6) Ryan Gosling, La La Land (PR: 8)
7) Dev Patel, Lion (PR: 9)
8) Michael Keaton, The Founder (PR: 4)
9) Jake Gyllenhaal, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 7)
10) Nate Parker, The Birth of a Nation (PR: 13)
11) Bryan Cranston, Wakefield (PR: 11)
12) Will Smith, Collateral Beauty (PR: Not Ranked)
13) Dave Johns, I, Daniel Blake (PR: Not Ranked)
14) Andrew Garfield, Silence (PR: 14)
15) Miles Teller, Bleed for This (PR: 15)
Dropped Out:
Trevante Rhodes, Moonlight
Ewan McGregor, American Pastoral
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1) Emma Stone, La La Land (PR: 1)
2) Natalie Portman, Jackie (PR: 3)
3) Viola Davis, Fences (PR: 2)
4) Ruth Negga, Loving (PR: 4)
5) Amy Adams, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6) Annette Bening, 20th Century Women (PR: 5)
7) Isabelle Huppert, Elle (PR: 7)
8) Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 8)
9) Amy Adams, Arrival (PR: 9)
10) Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures (PR: 11)
11) Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane (PR: 14)
12) Emily Blunt, The Girl on the Train (PR: 13)
13) Jennifer Lawrence, Passengers (PR: 12)
14) Rooney Mara, Una (PR: 10)
15) Sally Hawkins, Maudie (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Marion Cotillard, Allied
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1) Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 4)
2) Liam Neeson, Silence (PR: 2)
3) Mahershala Ali, Moonlight (PR: 3)
4) Steve Martin, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 1)
5) Stephen Henderson, Fences (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6) Aaron Eckhart, Sully (PR: 14)
7) Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 7)
8) Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 6)
9) Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water (PR: 15)
10) Timothy Spall, Denial (PR: 10)
11) Warren Beatty, Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 9)
12) Trevante Rhodes, Moonlight (PR: Not Ranked in Supporting)
13) Billy Nighy, Their Finest (PR: Not Ranked)
14) Aaron Eckhart, Bleed for This (PR: 8)
15) Sunny Pawar, Lion (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Billy Crudup, 20th Century Women
Vin Diesel, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
John Legend, La La Land
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1) Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 1)
2) Naomie Harris, Moonlight (PR: 2)
3) Kristen Stewart, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 4)
4) Laura Linney, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 3)
5) Nicole Kidman, Lion (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
6) Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures (PR: 10)
7) Helen Mirren, Eye in the Sky (PR: Not Ranked)
8) Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women (PR: 7)
9) Bryce Dallas Howard, Gold (PR: 5)
10) Margo Martindale, The Hollars (PR: 14)
11) Aja Naomi King, The Birth of a Nation (PR: 8)
12) Molly Shannon, Other People (PR: Not Ranked)
13) Elle Fanning, 20th Century Women (PR: 12)
14) Julianne Moore, Maggie’s Plan (PR: 11)
15) Helen Mirren, Collateral Beauty (13)
Dropped Out:
Dakota Fanning, American Pastoral
Laura Dern, The Founder
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1) La La Land (PR: 3)
2) Manchester by the Sea (PR: 1)
3) Moonlight (PR: 2)
4) Loving (PR: 4)
5) Jackie (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6) 20th Century Women (PR: 6)
7) Hell or High Water (PR: 7)
8) The Lobster (PR: 8)
9) The Birth of a Nation (PR: 9)
10) Zootopia (PR: 11)
11) I, Daniel Blake (PR: Not Ranked)
12) Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 14)
13) Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: Not Ranked)
14) Passengers (PR: 13)
15) Miss Sloane (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Founder
Gold
Allied
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1) Fences (PR: 1)
2) Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 2)
3) Nocturnal Animals (PR: 3)
4) Silence (PR: 4)
5) Lion (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6) Arrival (PR: 8)
7) Hidden Figures (PR: 7)
8) Sully (PR: 12)
9) The Girl on the Train (PR: 10)
10) Elle (PR: 11)
11) Love & Friendship (PR: 9)
12) Live by Night (PR: 13)
13) Denial (PR: 14)
14) The Jungle Book (PR: 15)
15) Indignation (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
American Pastoral
And there you have it, Oscar watchers! I’ll be back with my weekly predictions on September 22nd…
Critics have been singing the praises of English actress Sally Hawkins for years and awards voters have occasionally taken note. Her work in 2008’s Happy–Go–Lucky won her a Best Actress Golden Globe in the Musical/Comedy race (she missed the cut on an Oscar nod). The Academy did at last recognize her with a Supporting Actress nom for 2013’s BlueJasmine.
The Telluride Film Festival has opened up the possibility for her first lead Actress nod for Maudie. It screened over the weekend and casts Hawkins in a biopic of Canadian folk artist Maud Lewis, who suffers from serious physical disabilities. Aisling Walsh directs with Ethan Hawke as co-lead.
Reviews for the film itself were mixed and it stands no real at recognition from the Academy other than for Ms. Hawkins. If a distributor gets this out before year’s end and mounts a campaign, she could find herself in the mix of what’s looking like a very crowded Actress race.
In 2002, the New York Film Critics Circle (NYFCC) went gaga over Todd Haynes’s drama Far From Heaven, bestowing it with their award for Best Picture, Director, Supporting Actor (Dennis Quaid), and Supporting Actress (Patricia Clarkson). Yet when it came time for Oscar nominations, none of those picks were reflected with the Academy.
Thirteen years later, could history repeat itself again for Mr. Haynes? It’s a worthy question as the NYFCC have showered love upon his latest project, Carol. The 1950s drama centering on a lesbian relationship won big at their ceremony today, taking Picture and Director. The Big Apple critics appreciation for Carol gives it a somewhat needed boost for its Oscar chances. When it screened at film festivals earlier this year, it seemed close to a lock for Picture recognition but its stock has waned some.
As I did yesterday with the National Board of Review’s selections, it’s important to show you how often each critics organization matches what the Academy ends up doing. With the NYFCC, 12 out of their last 15 selections for Best Picture (the ones in the 21st century) have gone onto Oscar nominations in the same category. The exceptions were the aforementioned Heaven, 2001’s Mulholland Drive, and 2006’s United 93.
The same 12/15 ratio extends to the Directing category in which winners were Academy snubbed. Besides Haynes, the others were Mike Leigh for 2008’s Happy Go Lucky and Kathyn Bigelow for 2012’s Zero Dark Thirty.
I believe it’s much more likely that Carol manages a slot in the Picture race come Oscar nomination time than Haynes himself, but we’ll see how that plays out well as my predictions continue to be updated on the blog.
As for the acting races – the NYFCC hit us with two surprises. The biggest was Supporting Actress where they selected Kristen Stewart for her work in the little seen Clouds of Sils Maria. While she’s been mentioned as a possibility, very few prognosticators (this one included) have picked her for a Oscar nomination. I still don’t see it happening, but this win does raise her profile for sure. It’s also worth noting that only 2 of the last 15 NYFCC recipients in this category haven’t received Academy attention (the aforementioned Clarkson for Heaven and Maria Bello in 2005’s A History of Violence). Even more surprising is that the NYFCC didn’t honor Rooney Mara’s work in Carol, since many consider her the most likely winner for the gold statue.
The other surprise was Best Actor, which went to Michael Keaton in Spotlight. The shocker was the category he won for because Mr. Keaton is being campaigned for in Supporting Actor and not lead. It’s highly likely that the Bat/Birdman will be recognized come Oscar time… just not in the race where the NYFCC feted him. Of note: three past winners in the 21st century didn’t get Oscar nods: Paul Giamatti in 2004’s Sideways and the last two recipients: Robert Redford for All is Lost and Timothy Spall as Mr. Turner.
Actress went to Saoirse Ronan for Brooklyn and her Academy nod seems pretty much assured. She joins Room‘s Brie Larson (who won the NBR yesterday), Joy‘s Jennifer Lawrence, and Carol‘s Cate Blanchett as front runners for award attention into the future. As with Actor, three winners out of the past 15 didn’t receive Academy attention: Hope Davis for 2003’s American Splendor, Sally Hawkins for 2008’s Happy Go Lucky, and Rachel Weisz for 2012’s The Deep Blue Sea.
Supporting Actor went to Mark Rylance in Bridge of Spies and he’s also a strong contender in the big race. It is worth noting that the NYFCC has actually picked five out of their last 15 winners that never made it to the Academy’s red carpet: the previously mentioned Quaid in 2002, Steve Buscemi for Ghost World (2001), Eugene Levy in A Mighty Wind (2003), Albert Brooks in Drive (2011), and Matthew McConaughey for Magic Mike and Bernie (2012).
Bottom line: a solid day for Carol and we’ll see if the momentum keeps up as my analysis for the 2015 awards season keeps rolling along…
It’s already achieved financial success in the United Kingdom and on Friday, StudioCanal Pictures is hoping Paddington posts solid numbers stateside as well. Based on the well known children’s stories by Michael Bond, this bear tale features Ben Whishaw (Q from the Bond flicks) as the voice of the title character. The cast includes several recognizable faces including Hugh Bonneville, Sally Hawkins, Jim Broadbent and Nicole Kidman.
Reviews have been quite strong as it holds a 97% rating on Rotten Tomatoes. Paddington could further benefit from a lack of family fare as Night at the Museum and Annie have now made the bulk of their money. I’ll predict this bear manages an opening somewhere between $20 and $25 million for a respectable beginning.
Paddington opening weekend prediction: $22.3 million
Let’s say you got invited to a party and were told that Godzilla, the king of movie monsters, was going to be in attendance. You get there and for a while, you hear quite a bit of backstory about him. There’s even a celebrated TV actor who you’re so happy is appearing, even though he overacts almost laughably from time to time. Also, other monsters show up who you’re not as familiar with and feel a little ambivalent towards. Godzilla doesn’t even bother showing up until halfway through the event. Yet when he does it’s pretty cool. You decide that it was worth it.
And so it is with Godzilla and that’s the kind of party director Gareth Edwards chose to throw bringing back the iconic character to the screen. The last time an American studio featured the jolly green giant, it was with Roland Emmerich behind the camera and Matthew Broderick starring in the summer of 1998. That flick was a “disaster movie” in more ways than one and despite its $379 million worldwide total, it was considered a huge critical and commercial disappointment.
The glass is more half full sixteen years later. That celebrated TV actor is Walter Freaking White himself, Bryan Cranston! And, yes, his performance is a touch over the top. Contrary to what its TV spots might lead you to believe, he doesn’t even stick around the party as long as you’d think either. Cranston plays an engineer at a Japanese nuclear power plant who’s been monitoring troubling seismic activity. One of his coworkers is his wife (Juliette Binoche) and she tragically perishes when the seismic activity turns into a full-on disaster at the plant.
Flash forward to fifteen years later when Cranston’s son (Aaron Taylor-Johnson) is now a military bomb technician with a family of his own, while overacting Daddy is still in Japan trying to track what killed his wife. Circumstances bring them together and in contact with other scientists, led by Ken Watanabe and Sally Hawkins. And after about an hour – not only is Godzilla checked in at the party, but so are two MUTOs (Massive Unidentified Terrestrial Organisms). And as scientist Watanabe waxes philosophical about, our title character might be around to stop those other monsters from wreaking even more havoc. The military, led by David Strathairn, naturally disagree.
Godzilla does take its time to get going, but when it does we’re rewarded with some ultra cool action sequences. A MUTO in Las Vegas is a fun sight to see, as is Godzilla’s initial appearance in Hawaii where vacationers are treated to far more than they paid for.
Tayl0r-Johnson (of Kick-Ass fame) is the human star of these proceedings and we get some familiar scenes of him keeping in touch with his wife at home (Elizabeth Olsen) and young son. Home is San Francisco and that means an action set piece located at the Golden Gate Bridge, which brings me to an important point. Can we get a moratorium on the Golden Gate Bridge for big action spectacles??? After X-Men: The Last Stand and Rise of the Planet of the Apes – enough already. There are other bridges in this country.
Nevertheless, director Edwards brings to the table what Roland Emmerich didn’t – a genuine respect and understanding of the monster genre he’s playing in. And the second half of this party in particular has lots of solid moments that make it worthwhile. For the first time in a long time, we have a Godzilla done mostly right.
With the Oscars less than a month away – today I begin my picks on who will win in the six major categories at the ceremony. There will be a final round of predictions for all the races – probably two days prior to the telecast. We begin with Best Supporting Actress. Let’s recap the nominees, shall we?
Sally Hawkins, Blue Jasmine
Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Lupita Nyong’o, 12 Years a Slave
Julia Roberts, August: Osage County
June Squibb, Nebraska
The precursor awards have been split among Lawrence and Nyong’o. The Golden Globes, New York Film Critics, and National Society of Film Critics went with Lawrence while the SAG Awards and Critics Choice bestowed Nyong’o with the honor.
Simply put, this race appears to be down to those two ladies. A win for Hawkins, Roberts, or Squibb would be a major upset. Last year, Lawrence won Best Actress for Silver Linings Playbook and a victory for her here would pull off the rare feat of an actor winning two years in a row. The last time it occurred was 20 years ago with back-to-back wins for Tom Hanks in Philadelphia and Forrest Gump.
American Hustle received nominations in all four acting categories and Lawrence’s inclusion represents the best shot at a win. That said, I believe the slight momentum is on the side of Nyong’o. Her nomination also represents the greatest chance for 12 Years to get a win in the acting races. From a statistics point of view – I’d put it at about 55% Lupita, 45% J-Law at this juncture and we’ll see if that remains the case in my final picks a few weeks from now.
Predicted Winner for Best Supporting Actress: Lupita Nyong’o, 12 Years a Slave
The time has come to make my FINAL predictions for the Oscars. Nominations will be out on Thursday and I’m predicting every category that involves feature films. Therefore, the animated and documentary short films will not be predicted. I have written extensively about why I’m predicting certain movies, performers, and so on. That time is over. Here is my final listing of what and who I believe will be honored. The predictions are written by order of chances of nomination and I am listing runner-ups for each race in case some of my picks don’t pan out (which is guaranteed to happen). And here we go:
BEST PICTURE
1. 12 Years a Slave
2. Gravity
3. American Hustle
4. Nebraska
5. Inside Llewyn Davis
6. Her
7. Captain Phillips
8. The Wolf of Wall Street
9. Dallas Buyer’s Club
Runner-Ups:
10. Saving Mr. Banks
11. Philomena
12. Blue Jasmine
13. Lee Daniels’ The Butler
14. August: Osage County
15. Lone Survivor
16. Fruitvale Station
BEST DIRECTOR
1. Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity
2. Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave
3. David O. Russell, American Hustle
4. Alexander Payne, Nebraska
5. Martin Scorsese, The Wolf of Wall Street
Runner-Ups:
6. Spike Jonze, Her
7. Paul Greengrass, Captain Phillips
8. Joel and Ethan Coen, Inside Llewyn Davis
BEST ACTOR
1. Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave
2. Bruce Dern, Nebraska
3. Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyer’s Club
4. Robert Redford, All is Lost
5. Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street
Runner-Ups:
6. Tom Hanks, Captain Phillips
7. Christian Bale, American Hustle
8. Joaquin Phoenix, Her
9. Forest Whitaker, Lee Daniels’ The Butler
BEST ACTRESS
1. Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
2. Sandra Bullock, Gravity
3. Judi Dench, Philomena
4. Emma Thompson, Saving Mr. Banks
5. Meryl Streep, August: Osage County
Runner-Ups:
6. Amy Adams, American Hustle
7. Adele Exarchopoulos, Blue is the Warmest Colour
8. Brie Larson, Short Term 12
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
1. Jared Leto, Dallas Buyer’s Club
2. Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave
3. Bradley Cooper, American Hustle
4. Daniel Bruhl, Rush
5. Will Forte, Nebraska
Runner-Ups:
6. Barkhad Abdi, Captain Phillips
7. Tom Hanks, Saving Mr. Banks
8. James Gandolfini, Enough Said
9. Jonah Hill, The Wolf of Wall Street
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1. Lupita Nyong’o, 12 Years a Slave
2. Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
3. June Squibb, Nebraska
4. Oprah Winfrey, Lee Daniels’ The Butler
5. Julia Roberts, August: Osage County
Runner-Ups:
6. Sally Hawkins, Blue Jasmine
7. Margo Martindale, August: Osage County
8. Octavia Spencer, Fruitvale Station
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
1. American Hustle
2. Nebraska
3. Inside Llewyn Davis
4. Her
5. Blue Jasmine
Runner-Ups:
6. Dallas Buyer’s Club
7. Gravity
8. Fruitvale Station
9. Lee Daniels’ The Butler
10. Saving Mr. Banks
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
1. 12 Years a Slave
2. Philomena
3. Before Midnight
4. The Wolf of Wall Street
5. Captain Phillips
Runner-Ups:
6. August: Osage County
7. The Book Thief
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
1. Frozen
2. The Wind That Rises
3. Ernest&Celestine
4. Monsters University
5. Despicable Me 2
Runner-Ups:
6. The Croods
7. A Letter to Mono
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
1. 12 Years a Slave
2. The Great Gatsby
3. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
4. Gravity
5. The Invisible Woman
Runner-Ups:
6. Saving Mr. Banks
7. Inside Llewyn Davis
8. Oz the Great and Powerful
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
1. Gravity
2. 12 Years a Slave
3. Rush
4. Inside Llewyn Davis
5. Captain Phillips
Runner-Ups:
6. Nebraska
7. All is Lost
8. Prisoners
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
1. The Great Gatsby
2. American Hustle
3. 12 Years a Slave
4. The Invisible Woman
5. The Book Thief
Runner-Ups:
6. Saving Mr. Banks
7. Oz the Great and Powerful
BEST FILM EDITING
1. Gravity
2. 12 Years a Slave
3. American Hustle
4. Captain Phillips
5. Rush
Runner-Ups:
6. The Wolf of Wall Street
7. Inside Llewyn Davis
8. Lone Survivor
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
1. American Hustle
2. The Lone Ranger
3. The Great Gatsby
Runner-Ups:
4. Dallas Buyer’s Club
5. Jackass Presents Bad Grandpa
BEST SOUND MIXING
1. Gravity
2. Rush
3. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
4. Captain Phillips
5. Lone Survivor
Runner-Ups:
6. All is Lost
7. Inside Llewyn Davis
8. 12 Years a Slave
BEST SOUND EDITING
1. Gravity
2. Captain Phillips
3. Rush
4. Pacific Rim
5. All is Lost
Runner-Ups:
6. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
7. Lone Survivor
8. Man of Steel
9. World War Z
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
1. Gravity
2. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
3. Pacific Rim
4. Iron Man 3
5. World War Z
Runner-Ups:
6. Star Trek Into Darkness
7. Elysium
8. Oblivion
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
1. 12 Years a Slave
2. Gravity
3. The Book Thief
4. Saving Mr. Banks
5. Her
Runner-Ups:
6. Monsters University
7. All is Lost
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
1. “Let It Go” from Frozen
2. “Ordinary Love” from Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom
3. “Young and Beautiful” from The Great Gatsby
4. “In the Middle of the Night” from Lee Daniels’ The Butler
5. “The Moon Song” from Her
Runner-Ups:
6. “So You Know What It’s Like” from Short Term 12
7. “Rise Up” from Epic
8. “Sweeter than Fiction” from One Chance
I’m not listing alternates for the final two predicted categories, mostly because I’m supremely not confident with my limited knowledge for these races.
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
The Broken Circle Breakdown
The Grandmaster
The Great Beauty
The Hunt
Omar
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
The Act of Killing
Blackfish
The Square
Stories We Tell
20 Feet from Stardom
This means my predictions would garner the following number of nominations for these pictures:
10 Nominations – 12 Years a Slave, Gravity
8 Nominations – American Hustle
6 Nominations – Captain Phillips, Nebraska
5 Nominations – Rush
4 Nominations – The Great Gatsby, Her, The Wolf of Wall Street
3 Nominations – Dallas Buyer’s Club, The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug, Inside Llewyn Davis
2 Nominations – All is Lost, August: Osage County, Blue Jasmine, The Book Thief, Frozen, The Invisible Woman, Lee Daniels’ The Butler, Pacific Rim, Philomena, Saving Mr. Banks
1 Nomination – Iron Man 3, The Lone Ranger, Lone Survivor, Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom, World War Z
And there you have Todd’s final Oscar predictions. I will have reaction in a blog post Thursday once nominations are released and include a tally of how I did!
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