The supernatural horror pic Bring Her Back is out this weekend with critics praising the Philippou brothers’ follow-up to 2023’s Talk to Me. Billy Barratt, Sora Wong, and Sally Hawkins star. Distributed by A24 stateside, early box office numbers are so-so but it has a B+ Cinemascore (quite solid for the genre), 89% on Rotten Tomatoes, and a 75 Metacritic.
This is ground covered before on the blog, but it is a high bar for Academy voters to take notice of movies with horror elements. Recent examples include Get Out and The Substance. They each nabbed BP mentions with nods for their leading performers. While Hawkins in particular is being lauded for her work, I don’t envision Back getting into the mix during awards season. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Australian twins Danny and Michael Philippou follow up their acclaimed 2023 horror pic Talk to Me with another via Bring Her Back on May 30th. Sally Hawkins and Billy Barratt headline the A24 property marking the brothers’ second directorial feature.
Talk to Me exceeded expectations two summers ago with a debut north of $10 million and $48 million overall domestic haul (it made nearly $100 million worldwide). Critical reaction for Back is sturdy with 90% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 73 Metacritic.
I don’t envision this exceeding what Talk managed though it should open in the same range.
Bring Her Back opening weekend prediction: $8.5 million
For my Karate Kid: Legends prediction, click here:
After a seven year absence from the big screen, Sony hopes families are itching to watch Paddington in Peru over the Valentine’s/Presidents’ Day long weekend. The third feature in the franchise mixing live action/animation has Dougal Wilson taking over directorial duties from Paul King. Based on Michael Bond’s children’s books, Ben Whishaw returns to voice the titular bear. Other cast members include Hugh Bonneville, Emily Mortimer (replacing Sally Hawkins), Madeleine Harris, Samuel Joslin, Julie Walters, Jim Broadbent, Olivia Colman, Antonio Banderas, Imelda Staunton, Carla Tous, and Hayley Atwell.
Just over a decade ago, Paddington kicked off to $18.9 million from Friday to Sunday and $25.4 million over the extended MLK frame of 2015. Three years later, Paddington 2 started on the same holiday weekend to lesser results ($11 million for the three-day and $15 million when counting Monday). That’s despite fantastic reviews for the sequel as it notably sports a 99% RT rating.
Critical reaction for Peru is at 93% on that site though most notices say it falls short of its predecessors. In the United Kingdom, it achieved the best debut of the trilogy. The lengthy wait between features could prevent that from happening stateside though it is certainly achievable. I do think it will manage to outpace the second tale.
Paddington in Peru opening weekend prediction: $14.8 million (Friday to Sunday); $17 million (Friday to Monday)
For my Captain America: Brave New World prediction, click here:
The title character that first debuted over 65 years ago in Michael Bond’s children’s books is onscreen for the third time via Paddington in Peru. The mix of live-action and animation arrives a decade after Paddington and seven years after the sequel with Dougal Wilson taking over directorial duties from Paul King. Ben Whishaw is back voicing the bear with a supporting cast including Hugh Bonneville, Emily Mortimer (replacing Sally Hawkins), Julie Walters, Jim Broadbent, Madeleine Harris, Samuel Joslin, Olivia Colman, Imelda Staunton, and Antonio Banderas. It arrives in the United Kingdom Friday with its North American release not coming until January 17th (therefore making it eligible for the Oscars after the next one).
This is, in fact, more of a BAFTA Predictions write-up than an Oscar one. Neither of Peru‘s predecessors generated Academy attention despite warm reviews. On the other hand, the British Academy bit. The original was nominated for Best British Film and for its Adapted Screenplay. Part 2 was up for the same pair of awards plus Hugh Grant in Supporting Actor. The pics went 0 for 5 in terms of victories.
The Rotten Tomatoes score for the third adventure is 91%. Yet it’s Metacritic that tells the real story. Paddington had 77 on that site while the sequel improved upon that with 88. Peru is stuck at 58. That probably means that BAFTA will not honor part 3 in any way. My Oscar… and BAFTA related… Prediction posts will continue…
Warner Bros hopes audiences will take a look and then they’ll see pure dollar signs when Wonka opens December 15th. Timothee Chalamet takes over the iconic title role already filled by Gene Wilder in 1971 and Johnny Depp in 2015. The musical fantasy comes from Paul King, best known for Paddington and its sequel. Costars include Keegan-Michael Key, Paterson Joseph, Matt Lucas, Mathew Boynton, Sally Hawkins, Rowan Atkinson, Jim Carter, Tom Davis, Olivia Colman, and Hugh Grant.
An origin story about Roald Dahl’s eccentric chocolatier, the $125 million budgeted confection is generating mostly strong reviews at 85% on Rotten Tomatoes. Hoping to sell lots of golden tickets, it could experience small declines in the holiday weekends ahead.
That may mean its debut isn’t gigantic even though it could be solid. The rosiest out of the gate projections could be in the mid 40s to even $50 million. I’ll say it starts in the mid 30s but word-of-mouth and the time of year could propel it to impressive holds in the future.
Wonka hopes to score some sweet box office business when it debuts December 15th, but could awards voters take notice? Telling the origin story of Roald Dahl’s iconic chocolatier, Timothee Chalamet steps into the title role previously played by Gene Wilder in 1971 and Johnny Depp in 2005. Paul King, best known for making Paddington and its sequel, directs. The supporting cast includes Keegan-Michael Key, Paterson Joseph, Matt Lucas, Mathew Baynton, Sally Hawkins, Rowan Atkinson, Jim Carter, Tom Davis, Olivia Colman, and Hugh Grant as an Oompa-Loompa.
The review embargo is lifted and early results are solid with an 80% Rotten Tomatoes score. It is worth noting that it’s under both Gene Wilder’s classic (91%) and the 2005 remake (83%).
Wonka‘s best shot at Academy attention is in tech races (though don’t be surprised if Chalamet nabs a Golden Globe nod for Actor in a Musical/Comedy). It could score a Costume Design nomination like Charlie did 18 years ago. The best shot might lie in its Production Design though competition is fierce with contenders like Poor Things, Killers of the Flower Moon, Barbie, Oppenheimer, The Color Purple, Asteroid City, and Napoleon. There simply might not be enough room.
One last possibility is Original Song, particularly “A World Of Your Own” crooned by Chalamet. I haven’t had it my top ten in previous predictions, but it might show up there in the next update. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Focused on the 2012 discovery of King Richard III’s remains, dramedy The Lost King premiered at the Toronto Film Festival prior to its October 7th UK release. Domestic distribution is still undetermined. Stephen Frears directs a cast led by Sally Hawkins, Steve Coogan (who cowrote the script with Jeff Pope), and Harry Lloyd.
Critics are mixed on King and it stands at 69% on Rotten Tomatoes. I never really figured this as an Academy contender, but thought the Globes could take notice in the Musical/Comedy races if it garnered enough praise. It’s not out of the question that Hawkins could find her way into the Globes Actress derby if competition is light. It’s also (perhaps more) likely that this is ignored altogether. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Back in 2015, Mark Rylance scored an upset Supporting Actor Oscar victory over Sylvester Stallone (Creed) for his work in Steven Spielberg’s Bridge of Spies. He hasn’t made it back to the dance since, but he’s got two performances in 2022 generating praise.
The first was the spring’s spy drama The Outfit and the latest is The Phantom of the Open. The biographical comedic drama casts Rylance as Maurice Flitcroft, a golfer of questionable abilities who still managed to play the PGA Tour in the 1970s. Craig Roberts directs with a supporting cast including Sally Hawkins and Rhys Ifans.
Critics are mostly being kind and it holds a 91% rating on Rotten Tomatoes. That said, I’m skeptical this gets enough stateside exposure to become Rylance’s second nod. On the other hand, I wouldn’t be surprised if his performance here or in The Outfit lands him a BAFTA nomination. Another possibility could be making the cut for Best Actor in a Musical/Comedy at the Golden Globes. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Approximately a decade into their marriage, the union of Diana and Charles is as decayed as the floorboards in her abandoned childhood home and there seems to be nowhere to go but down. That early 90s mindset is where we find Kristen Stewart as the People’s Princess in Spencer from Pablo Larrain. Set at Christmas, it’s an unexpectedly claustrophobic mood piece punctuated by jazz beats and occasional moments of joy (mostly courtesy of young William and Harry). They’re weighed down by Diana’s loveless connection to her husband and in-laws.
Focused on someone who strained to follow royal patterns, it seems appropriate that Spencer refuses to follow ones in the biopic genre. That makes it unique and sometimes haunting – a bit like the title character. In 1991, Diana is well aware of the Prince’s other relationship. So are the paparazzi and they force curtains to be sewn shut as the Royals holiday at their Norfolk estate. Sewing the Princess’s garments are Maggie (Sally Hawkins), one of the few subjects that Diana can talk to. The same cannot be said for Major Gregory (Timothy Spall), who runs the home with the same military precision as the cooks preparing their meals.
In her room that she appears not to share with Charles, the reading list is suggestive. A novel about Anne Boleyn (a 16th century Queen executed by her King) leads to Diana having strange visions of the long beheaded branch of the complicated family tree.
Spencer is not concerned with historical accuracy as much as how history affected the former Miss Spencer’s psyche. She longs to break free as evidenced by an excursion to her former residence. The dialogue between her and Charles (Jack Farthing) or the Queen (Stella Gonet) is curt and strained. There are no pearls of wisdom found in their interactions.
With a stirring score from Jonny Greenwood and masterful cinematography by Claire Mathon, this is a gorgeously rendered production. Stewart has shown her considerable talents post Twilight before – particularly in Personal Shopper. While she may not closely resemble Diana, her mannerisms do and her vulnerability is often something to marvel at. Those looking for a traditional experience may not gel with Spencer. I found myself not being able to look away.
Blogger’s Note (11/03): I’ve seen some unconfirmed data indicating Spencer will open on just under 1000 screens. If that holds true, I’m revising my estimate from $4.6M to $4.1M.
Kristen Stewart appears destined to make plenty of red carpet trips next year with her performance as Princess Diana in Spencer. Directed by Pablo Larrain (who last tackled American royalty with Natalie Portman as Jackie), the pic looks to be an awards contender for its star and in several other categories. Costars include Jack Farthing (as Prince Charles), Sally Hawkins, Timothy Spall, and Sean Harris.
So how will it perform at the box office? That’s a tricky one and some simply for practical reasons. Spencer is hitting screens this Friday, but I’ve yet to see a theater count. When that’s available (hopefully Thursday), don’t be surprised if my current estimate is altered.
Practicalities aside, Oscar bait entries such as this often play out over the course of the season. In other words, don’t expect hefty grosses right away. That said, the buzz already being generated with Stewart as the Best Actress frontrunner and the fascination with the life and death of Diana should contribute to a decent per theater average. We just don’t know how many venues that is at the moment.
For those reasons, I’ll peg this in the $4-6 million range for its start (this is assuming a 1500 screen count which is a number I’ve heard rumored). That should nab it anywhere from the 3-6 position on the chart. Checking back on Thursday is probably wise.
All My Life... I Wanted To Be A Blogster 