A significant portion of the country was frozen this weekend so it’s fitting that Disney’s Frozen took the top spot at the box office. What’s interesting is that it took six weeks for the animated hit to reach #1 and it did it due to a less than expected debut for Paranormal Activity: The Marked Ones.
Frozen grossed $20.7 million, above my $19 million estimate and it’s earned $297 million since late November. A final tally of $350 million looks reachable.
This meant The Marked Ones, the fifth entry in the Paranormal Activity franchise, had to settle for second with $18.2 million, well below my $26.8M estimate. The series appears to be running out of steam and you have to wonder if some potential moviegoers on the East Coast and in the Midwest were too scared to leave their house to venture out and watch a scary movie.
Falling to third after three weeks at #1 was The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug. It grossed $16.2 million. My prediction? $16.2 million! Gold star! The Tolkien tale has hauled in $229 million in four weeks.
Holding up better than I figured in its second weekend was Martin Scorsese’s The Wolf of Wall Street. It earned $13.4 million, outpacing my $11M prediction. The very R rated pic has made $63 million so far and looks poised to pass the century mark at some point.
Wall Street narrowly beat out American Hustle, which was fifth in its third weekend with $13.2 million, right in line with my $13.1M projection. Gold star #2! Hustle has made an impressive $88 million in three weeks of wide release.
Placing sixth in weekend three was Anchorman 2: The Legend Continues with $11.1 million, a bit below my $12.5M estimate. Ron Burgundy and friends crossed the century mark as its gross stands at $109 million.
And there’s your weekend results! Be sure to check the blog later today for predictions on next weekend’s newcomers – Lone Survivor, The Legend of Hercules, and Her.
The new year at the box office will be rung in with a pretty sturdy horror franchise in the form of Paranormal Activity: The Marked Ones, opening Friday. Unless it greatly doesn’t match expectations, the fifth entry in the series should open atop the charts with the rest being filled by holiday leftovers. You can find my detailed prediction post on The Marked Ones here:
Christmas holdovers usually fall in the 30s to low 40s during the first weekend of the next year and I expect we’ll see that occur here. My predictions reflect Disney’s Frozen having one of the lower declines which should allow it to remain at #2 while The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug should end its three-week reign at number one and fall to third. I expect American Hustle and Anchorman 2 to round out the top five. This means Martin Scorsese’s The Wolf of Wall Street should drop out of the top five in its second weekend. While it had a healthy debut (grossing $34 million over five days), audiences were polarized by it, evidenced by its weak C Cinemascore average.
And with that, my predictions for the top six at the box office during weekend #1 of 2014:
1. Paranormal Activity: The Marked Ones
Predicted Gross: $26.8 million
2. Frozen
Predicted Gross: $19 million (representing a drop of 33%)
3. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Predicted Gross: $16.2 million (representing a drop of 44%)
4. American Hustle
Predicted Gross: $13.1 million (representing a drop of 33%)
5. Anchorman 2: The Legend Continues
Predicted Gross: $12.5 million (representing a drop of 38%)
6. The Wolf of Wall Street
Predicted Gross: $11 million (representing a drop of 41%)
This would be a great time to remind you of the website www.boxofficeace.com – where you can make your own predictions on the opening weekends of new box office entries. This week would be a fantastic time to start (only takes a sec to set up profile) because the competition begins anew with 2014 rolling in. On the site, you can compete against me and see if you can make box office predictions better than yours truly.
And there you have it! Check by Saturday for early updates on the blog’s Facebook page and Sunday with final results!
There was a whole bunch of new movies that opened Christmas Day, but numbers 1-4 were occupied by holdovers. The Wolf of Wall Street was the top newcomer while The Secret Life of Walter Mitty had a just OK opening and 47 Ronin, Grudge Match, and Justin Bieber’s Believe disappointed.
For the third weekend in a row, it was The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug at the top spot with $29.8 million – above my $25.7M estimate. The middle chapter in Peter Jackson’s Tolkien trilogy has earned $190 million in its three weeks of release so far.
Disney’s Frozen was close behind with $28.8 million, surpassing my $22.1M projection. The animated feature has grossed an impressive $248 million so far and should go north of $300 million when all is said and done.
Ron Burgundy and company were third with Anchorman: The Legend Continues earning $20.1 million in weekend #2, right in line with my $19.6M estimate. Anchorman has made $83.6 million so far, nearly matching the entire domestic gross of the original.
David O. Russell’s awards contender American Hustle was fourth with $19.5 million – beyond my $14.9M projection. Hustle has grossed $60 million in two weeks and is very likely to cross the century mark at some point.
It was Martin Scorsese’s The Wolf of Wall Street taking honors as top newbie. The three hour sex and drugs fest with Leo DiCaprio made $18.5 million over the Friday-to-Sunday portion of the weekend and $34.3 million since its Wednesday debut. While this is below my respective estimates of $25.4M and $44.2M, this is still a solid opening. Where Wolf could soon falter is with its C Cinemascore average. Audiences are clearly not liking what they’re seeing and there could be rather substantial drop-offs in future weekends.
Saving Mr. Banks with Emma Thompson and Tom Hanks had a big jump in its second weekend with $14 million for sixth, above my $10.6M estimate. It’s earned $37.8M in two weeks.
Ben Stiller’s comedic drama The Secret Life of Walter Mitty was seventh with $13 million over Friday-to-Sunday and $25.5 million since the Wednesday start, outpacing my projections of $11.7M and $19.3M. This opening could best be described as middle of the pack and it’ll be interesting to see how it holds up over the next couple of weekends.
The Hunger Games: Catching Fire was eighth with $10.2 million, above my $7.7M projection. Fire has made $391 million since its November opening, currently sits at #18 for all-time domestic grossers, and still looks to top Iron Man 3 as 2013’s biggest hit.
The martial arts flick with Keanu Reeves 47 Ronin opened at ninth with $9.8 million over Friday-to-Sunday and $20.5 million since Wednesday. It earned under my predicted three-day estimated (I said $11.4M) but over my five-day estimate ($17.8M). Look for it to fade fast.
Tyler Perry’s A Madea Christmas rounded out the Top Ten with $7.4 million (I didn’t predict it would be in the top ten).
This left the Sylvester Stallone/Robert De Niro comedy Grudge Match at #11 with a very poor opening well below my expectations. Match grossed $7.3 million from Friday-to-Sunday and $13.4 million since Wednesday. I thought it would do much better and predicted $13.9M for the three-day and $24.5M for the five-day. Oops. This is Stallone’s third bomb of the year after Bullet to the Head and Escape Plan.
Finally, Beliebers totally failed to turn out for his documentary Believe. It sputtered at #14 with $2 million from Friday-to-Sunday and $4.2 million since the Wednesday start. I predicted it would do $5.8M for the three-day and $10.3 million for the five. Oops again.
Whew. And there’s your Christmas weekend box office results! Be sure to check the blog later today for my prediction next weekend’s only newcomer, Paranormal Activity: The Marked Ones.
It’s the most wonderful time of the year and, at multiplexes, by far the most crowded time of the year! On Christmas Day, five pictures enter an already crowded marketplace. They are: Martin Scorsese’s The Wolf of Wall Street, the boxing comedy Grudge Match with Sylvester Stallone and Robert De Niro, Ben Stiller’s fantasy drama The Secret Life of Walter Mitty, martial arts flick 47 Ronin with Keanu Reeves, and the Justin Bieber documentary Believe. You can read my individual posts on all five at the following links:
By my estimates there will be nine – yes, nine – movies that gross double digits over the weekend. And there may well be a fierce battle for #1. In this same holiday weekend last year, The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey fell only 13% in its third weekend and I expect current #1 The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug to fall no further than 20%. This should put it in a neck and neck race with my prediction for Wolf of Wall Street.
Disney’s Frozen stands an excellent chance of gaining audience from last weekend and it too has an outside shot at the top spot. Another title I expect to post gains: Disney’s Saving Mr. Banks which had a rather middling opening this past weekend at $9.3 million but should benefit from positive word of mouth.
Anchorman 2: The Legend Continues had a solid opening ($40 million over five days), but it was at the lesser end of expectations. Still, the holiday time frame should prevent it from suffering a large decline. The same can be said for American Hustle, which started strong out of the gate last weekend with $19.1 million.
One thing is for sure: the film calendar doesn’t get more crowded than this. After that, many things are highly uncertain but here’s my best guesses for the Christmas 2013 Top Ten:
1. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Predicted Gross: $25.7 million (representing a drop of 18%)
2. The Wolf of Wall Street
Predicted Gross: $25.4 million ($44.2 million predicted for five-day opening)
3. Frozen
Predicted Gross: $22.1 million (representing an increase of 13%)
4. Anchorman: The Legend Continues
Predicted Gross: $19.6 million (representing a drop of 26%)
5. American Hustle
Predicted Gross: $14.9 million (representing a drop of 22%)
6. Grudge Match
Predicted Gross: $13.9 million ($24.5 million predicted for five-day opening)
7. The Secret Life of Walter Mitty
Predicted Gross: $11.7 million ($19.3 million predicted for five-day opening)
8. 47 Ronin
Predicted Gross: $11.4 million ($17.8 million predicted for five-day opening)
9. Saving Mr. Banks
Predicted Gross: $10.6 million (representing an increase of 15%)
10. The Hunger Games: Catching Fire
Predicted Gross: $7.7 million (representing a drop of 12%)
These predictions would leave Justin Bieber’s Believe out of the top ten and likely in the #12 slot behind the second weekend of Walking with Dinosaurs.
And there you have it! My predictions for Christmas 2013. Of course, I’ll have updates on the blog’s Facebook page throughout the week with final results Sunday. And have yourself a Merry little Christmas, my friends!
In a result that surprised yours truly, Ron Burgundy and company couldn’t dislodge Gandalf and company from the top spot at the box office in this crowded pre-holiday weekend.
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug remained #1 for the second week in a row with an estimated $31.4 million – exactly on target with my $31.5M projection. Peter Jackson’s middle chapter in the franchise has earned $127.5M in its ten days of release.
This left Anchorman 2: The Legend Continues in the two spot and well below my projected opening. The sequel to the 2004 original made $26.7 million over the Friday to Sunday frame and $40 million since its Wednesday debut. I had it earning $41.9M and $61.2M, respectively, over those time periods. While the opening is decent, this is clearly below my overzealous expectations. Furthermore, audiences seem a bit disappointed with what they’re seeing as they awarded it a B Cinemascore grade, which is rather low.
There was a virtual tie for the #3 spot as Disney’s Frozen took in $19.1 million. I incorrectly had it left out of the top five. Oops. The animated pic has earned $191.5M since its November premiere. David O. Russell’s American Hustle also made $19.1 million, just under my $20.5M projection. This is a solid debut for the critically lauded comedy/drama and its per-screen average was almost identical to that of the Anchorman sequel.
Coming in fifth but well below my estimate was Saving Mr. Banks with Emma Thompson and Tom Hanks. It started out of the gate rather slowly with $9.3 million, way under my $17.1M projection. Banks will count on very low drop-offs over the next few weekends and the chances of that are good with its A Cinemascore grade.
Finally, the animated 3D tale Walking with Dinosaurs was a huge disappointment with an 8th place opening at $7.3 million. I predicted it would earn $18.9M. Oops again. Family audiences are still choosing Frozen over this new offering.
Today on the blog – you’ll see the movie marketplace getting even more crowded as I’ll post predictions for all five features opening Christmas Day: The Wolf of Wall Street, Grudge Match, The Secret Life of Walter Mitty, 47 Ronin, and the Justin Bieber doc Believe. Stay tuned!
As the Christmas season approaches, four high profile pictures enter the marketplace with another five scheduled on Christmas Day. This weekend it’s Anchorman 2: The Legend Continues, American Hustle, Saving Mr. Banks, and Walking with Dinosaurs.
You can read my individual prediction posts on each here:
If Anchorman 2 were to come in quite a bit below my projection, it could potentially face a battle with this weekend’s champ The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug for the #1 spot. However, I do believe Ron Burgundy and company will prevail. Last year in this same weekend, The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey fell 56% from weekend #1 to #2 and I expect the roughly the same result for Smaug. As for the other three new entries, you’ll notice there’s only a $3.5 million difference between what I believe they’ll debut at. Therefore, these films could easily fluctuate between spots 3-5. Also if any of these newbies were to come in below my projections, it could allow Disney’s Frozen to remain in the top five. Got all that? We shall see how it shakes out, but here’s my predictions for this weekend’s top five:
1. Anchorman 2: The Legend Continues
Predicted Gross: $41.9 million ($61.2 million Wednesday to Sunday)
2. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Predicted Gross: $31.5 million (representing a drop of 57%)
3. American Hustle
Predicted Gross: $20.5 million
4. Walking with Dinosaurs
Predicted Gross: $18.9 million
5. Saving Mr. Banks
Predicted Gross: $17.1 million
As always, I’ll have an update on the blog’s Facebook page Saturday with final results on the blog Sunday.
If Anchorman: The Legend Continues fails to have a solid opening, it certainly won’t be due to lack of exposure. Will Ferrell has been everywhere as title character Ron Burgundy over the past several weeks from Dodge Durango commercials to local North Dakota newscasts to the MTV Video Music Awards and more.
As you will recall, Anchorman: The Legend of Ron Burgundy came out in the summer of 2004 and grossed a very respectable $85 million. Since then, the film has taken on a life of its own becoming arguably the most quoted comedy of the past decade or two. It’s already earned a (deserved) reputation as a comedy classic.
For years, rumors of a sequel came and went. And now we’re here – with Ferrell, Steve Carell, Paul Rudd, David Koechner, and Christina Applegate back in the mix. There are also expected to be cameos galore – from Kanye West to Jim Carrey to Harrison Ford.
Simply put – Anchorman 2 is expected to be kind of a big deal. How big of a deal is the question. Anchorman 2 opens on Wednesday so I’ll be making a three and five day projection. It stands to reason that many fans of the original of which there’s many should be anxious to rush out and see the sequel.
What’s the opening weekend range we’re talking about? It’s tough to say. The absolute high mark I could foresee is a five-day gross in the neighborhood of $80 million. That would be an absolutely astonishing debut. I also can’t imagine the five-day haul being lower than $40 million, which would be considered pretty disappointing. As you can see, that’s a rather large range between potential grosses.
You also need to factor in the pre-Christmas weekend that Anchorman 2 is being released in. For many pictures released at this time, the opening weekend can be relatively lower than you might expect with subsequently smaller than normal drop-offs over the Christmas and New Year’s weekend. However, unlike American Hustle and Saving Mr. Banks which open Friday, I expect a large portion of Ron Burgundy’s business to be front loaded.
With all that explanation – here’s the deal: this is not an easy prediction to make. It’s difficult to judge just how eagerly anticipated moviegoers really are for it. Media saturation has been high, the trailers have been effective, and the original is beloved.
Ultimately I am predicting Anchorman 2 falls in between the highs and lows I presented as possibilities.
Anchorman 2: The Legend Continues opening weekend prediction: $41.9 million (Friday-to-Sunday), $61.2 million (Wednesday-to-Sunday)
In 1976, Martin Scorsese’s Taxi Driver was seen as a strong possibility to win Best Picture at the Oscars until a boxing movie unexpectedly captured audiences attention and took the prize. That would, of course, be Rocky. Fast forward to 2004 where Scorsese’s Howard Hughes biopic The Aviator seemed to be the odds-on favorite for Best Pic until, yet again, a pugilistic tale surprised moviegoers late in the awards season.
Clint Eastwood’s Million Dollar Baby wasn’t even talked about much as an awards contender during 2004’s calendar year. It was released very late in the year, but it turned out to be great timing.
Baby would win the top award over The Aviator, as well as Marc Forster’s Finding Neverland, Taylor Hackford’s Ray, and Alexander Payne’s Sideways.
As for other contenders not recognized, the Academy would ignore Quentin Tarantino’s fantastic Kill Bill and its Volume II after snubbing the first installment the year prior. It’s also worth noting that the greatest Harry Potter flick in the franchise (in my view) Prisoner of Azkaban could have been honored too. And there’s Michel Gondry’s highly original critical favorite Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind. And a favorite of audiences – Mel Gibson’s mega-blockbuster Passion of the Christ. Any of one of these pics should have at least replaced Finding Neverland, which was decent but doesn’t belong in the category.
The Baby boom would extend to Eastwood, who won Best Director exactly a dozen years after winning the same award for Unforgiven. This prevented Scorsese from winning his first Oscar. Other nominees included Hackford, Payne, and Mike Leigh for Vera Drake.
Once again – Gondry, Tarantino, and Gibson are names worth mentioning that didn’t get in the mix.
Jamie Foxx would take Best Actor for his dead-on portrayal of the legendary singer Ray Charles in Ray, winning out over Leonardo DiCaprio in The Aviator, Don Cheadle in Hotel Rwanda, Eastwood in Million Dollar Baby, and Johnny Depp in Finding Neverland.
One major snub was Paul Giamatti for his fine work in Sideways. The Academy yet again snubbed Jim Carrey in Eternal Sunshine.
Hilary Swank won her second Best Actress award in five years for Baby (in 1999, she was victorious in Boys Don’t Cry). Other nominees: Annette Bening in Being Julia, Catalina Sandino Moreno in Maria Full of Grace, Imelda Staunton in Vera Drake, and Kate Winslet for Eternal Sunshine.
Once again, it was Uma Thurman left out for her work in the Kill Bill franchise.
Morgan Freeman would win his first Oscar in the Supporting Actor race for Million Dollar Baby over Alan Alda in The Aviator, Thomas Haden Church for Sideways, Jamie Foxx in Collateral, and Clive Owen in Closer.
Not to keep bringing up Kill Bill, but the late David Carradine should have been nominated.
The Aviator would finally receive some Academy recognition with Cate Blanchett winning Supporting Actress with her portrayal as Katherine Hepburn. Other nominees: Laura Linney in Kinsey, Virginia Madsen for Sideways, Sophie Okonedo in Hotel Rwanda, and Natalie Portman for Closer.
After all my mentions for Kill Bill and Eternal Sunshine receiving snubs, there’s one other 2004 pic that demonstrates the Academy’s constant ability to ignore comedies. So I give you the following snubs –
Best Actor – Will Ferrell, Anchorman: The Legend of Ron Burgundy
Best Supporting Actor – Steve Carell, Anchorman: The Legend of Ron Burgundy
Best Supporting Actor – Paul Rudd, Anchorman: The Legend of Ron Burgundy
Best Supporting Actor – David Koechner, Anchorman: The Legend of Ron Burgundy
Best Scene Involving a Cannonball – Anchorman: The Legend of Ron Burgundy
Best Scene With a Dog Being Punted – Anchorman: The Legend of Ron Burgundy
Best Rendition of “Afternoon Delight” In a Movie: Anchorman: The Legend of Ron Burgundy
I’ll be back with Oscar History: 2005 soon, my friends!
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