Over the past year and change, the superhero genre has been flush with massive successes such as BlackPanther, Avengers: InfinityWar, Aquaman, CaptainMarvel, and current box office champ Shazam!, which has dutifully met expectations. The upcoming Avengers: Endgame is looking to set the all time opening record in two weeks. Something was bound to eventually get lost in the shuffle and that turned out to be Hellboy this weekend.
The film rebooted the Dark Horse Comics franchise that debuted in 2004 with Guillermo del Toro behind the camera and Ron Perlman as the horn clad anti-hero. A 2008 sequel, HellboyII: TheGoldenArmy, built on the grosses of its predecessor.
Neil Marshall took over directorial duties for the new Hellboy with David Harbour of “Stranger Things” cast as the title character. All along the way, the marketing campaign seemed curiously muted. It was as if Lionsgate might have known they had a dog on their hands. And they did. The review embargo didn’t lift until late this week. Rotten Tomatoes has been ripe with bad critical reaction with a 15% score. CinemaScore audiences haven’t been kind either with a lowly C rating.
On Sunday, the initial results have Hellboy in third place with just $12 million. Not only is that behind the second frame of Shazam!, it’s after the debut of the Regina Hall comedy Little. To put that in perspective, the 2004 Hellboy made $23 million out of the gate. TheGoldenArmy took in $34 million. For both of those films, the opening weekends represented a hefty chunk of the overall earnings. In the case of the second installment, it fell hard in its sophomore frame due to another comic boom sequel premiering called TheDarkKnight. With its toxic word of mouth, I expect this version to tumble at least 60% in weekend #2 and probably more.
If there’s any silver lining for the studio, it’s that the reboot cost a reported $50 million. That’s certainly low on the scale for this genre. Yet we can be sure this iteration of the character is a one-off. And we’ve found out what the depths of Hellboy are on a financial level and it’s not pretty.
Borrowing its plot themes from comedies such as Big and 13Goingon30, the Will Packer produced pic Little debuts next weekend. Regina Hall stars as an overworked tech mogul who’s transformed into a teen version of herself. That 13-year-old self is played by Marsai Martin (of TV’s “Black-ish”) and the young actress holds an executive producer credit here (making her the youngest person ever to do so). Tina Gordon directs and Issa Rae, Justin Hartley, and Rachel Dratch costar.
Mr. Packer’s previous studio efforts like GirlsTrip have turned into profitable ventures. Little hopes to bring in a sizable African-American audience and the chances of this over performing are real.
A gross in the mid to high teens is certainly feasible, but I’ll project low teens is where this ends up.
The Golden Globes, perhaps the biggest precursor of all to the Oscars, unveils their nominees this Thursday as awards prognosticators like me attempt to read tea leaves. As a reminder, the Globes do it a bit differently than the Academy. For Picture and lead acting races, nominees are divided into Drama and Musical/Comedy. Unlike the Oscars, Screenplay is just one category with five pictures, whether they’re original or adapted works.
It should be strong showings for A Star Is Born and The Favourite in particular. Another difference between Globes and Oscar is that foreign features are only honored in their particular category. That’s significant this year as Roma will only be called for Foreign Language Film.
One item to pay attention to – Clint Eastwood’s The Mule. Despite coming out a week from Friday, it has yet to have reviews come out (perhaps this will change by Thursday). If it makes a showing in any of the dramatic races, that could bode well for Oscar attention.
Here are my predictions for the nominees in each category, along with an alternate and a wild card pick. I’ll have my weekly Oscar predictions updated on Thursday and we’ll see if the Globes alter those picks in any way.
Let’s get to it!
Best Motion Picture (Drama)
A Star Is Born
BlacKkKlansman
Black Panther
First Man
If Beale Street Could Talk
Alternate – Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Wild Card – The Mule
Best Motion Picture (Musical/Comedy)
Crazy Rich Asians
The Favourite
Green Book
Mary Poppins Returns
Vice
Alternate – Eighth Grade
Wild Card – Private Life
Best Director
Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
Alfonso Cuaron, Roma
Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk
Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite
Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman
Alternate – Peter Farrelly, Green Book
Wild Card – Damien Chazelle, First Man
Best Actor (Drama)
Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate
Ryan Gosling, First Man
Ethan Hawke, First Reformed
Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
Alternate – Clint Eastwood, The Mule
Wild Card – Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased
Best Actress (Drama)
Yalitza Aparicio, Roma
Glenn Close, The Wife
Viola Davis, Widows
Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born
Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Alternate – Julia Roberts, Ben Is Back
Wild Card – Toni Collette, Hereditary
Best Actor (Musical/Comedy)
Christian Bale, Vice
Lin-Manuel Miranda, Mary Poppins Returns
Viggo Mortensen, Green Book
Robert Redford, The Old Man & The Gun
Nick Robinson, Love, Simon
Alternate – John C. Reilly, Stan & Ollie
Wild Card – Ryan Reynolds, Deadpool 2
Best Actress (Musical/Comedy)
Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns
Olivia Colman, The Favourite
Elsie Fisher, Eighth Grade
Charlize Theron, Tully
Constance Wu, Crazy Rich Asians
Alternate – Regina Hall, Support the Girls
Wild Card – Kathryn Hahn, Private Life
Best Supporting Actor
Mahershala Ali, Green Book
Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy
Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman
Sam Elliot, A Star Is Born
Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Alternate – Nicholas Hoult, The Favourite
Wild Card – Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther
Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, Vice
Claire Foy, First Man
Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
Emma Stone, The Favourite
Rachel Weisz, The Favourite
Alternate – Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased
Wild Card – Michelle Yeoh, Crazy Rich Asians
Best Animated Feature Film
Incredibles 2
Isle of Dogs
Mirai
Ralph Breaks the Internet
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
Alternate – Smallfoot
Wild Card – The Grinch
Best Foreign Language Film
Cold War
Girl
Never Look Away
Roma
Shoplifters
Alternate – Capernaum
Wild Card – I Am Not a Witch
Best Screenplay
A Star Is Born
The Favourite
If Beale Street Could Talk
Roma
Vice
Alternate – Green Book
Wild Card – First Reformed
Best Original Score
BlacKkKlansman
First Man
If Beale Street Could Talk
Mary Poppins Returns
Mary Queen of Scots
Alternate – Widows
Wild Card – Suspiria
Best Original Song
“All the Stars” from Black Panther
“Girl in the Movies” from Dumplin’
“The Place Where Lost Things Go” from Mary Poppins Returns
“The Shallow” from A Star Is Born
“Trip a Little Light Fantastic” from Mary Poppins Returns
Alternate – “I’ll Never Love Again” from A Star Is Born
Wild Card – “A Place Called Slaughter Race” from Ralph Breaks the Internet
And that equates to the following number of nominations for each picture:
6 Nominations
The Favourite
5 Nominations
A Star Is Born, If Beale Street Could Talk, Mary Poppins Returns
4 Nominations
BlacKkKlansman, First Man, Roma, Vice
3 Nominations
Green Book
2 Nominations
Can You Ever Forgive Me?, Crazy Rich Asians
1 Nomination
Black Panther, At Eternity’s Gate, First Reformed, Bohemian Rhapsody, The Wife, Widows, The Old Man & The Gun, Love, Simon, Eighth Grade, Tully, Beautiful Boy, Incredibles 2, Isle of Dogs, Mirai, Ralph Breaks the Internet, Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse, Cold War, Never Look Away, Shoplifters, Mary Queen of Scots
I’ll have reaction up on Thursday with updated Oscar picks later that day!
One of the oldest critics group weighed in on the best of the year this morning as the New York Film Critics Circle bestowed their honors. And the writers of the Big Apple clearly took to Roma, which was victorious for Best Picture, Director (Alfonso Cuaron), and Cinematography.
There’s little doubt the Mexican drama will get a nomination at the Oscars. However, the NYFCC top prize certainly doesn’t ensure a win at the big race. Far from it. You have to go back to 2011 since the Oscar and NYFCC recipients matched – The Artist.
Roma has held the #2 spot in my estimated nominees for weeks behind A Star Is Born. For now, I don’t see that changing.
For Best Actor, Ethan Hawke won for First Reformed and I don’t expect that will be the last of his critics group trophies. Hawke has established himself as a real threat to make the final 5 for the Academy. Additionally, the Screenplay award went to Reformed, furthering boosting the prospect of Paul Schrader getting his first Oscar nod in Original Screenplay.
The NYFCC is known for throwing a surprise in the acting categories (think Tiffany Haddish for Girls Trip) and this year was no different. Best Actress went to Regina Hall for the acclaimed indie dramedy Support the Girls. While the exposure here only helps, the Actress race is very crowded and Hall’s inclusion seems quite unlikely at the moment.
Richard E. Grant took Supporting Actor for Can You Ever Forgive Me? in what is shaping up to be a genuine three-person race between him, Mahershala Ali (Green Book), and Sam Elliot (A Star Is Born). Regina King got Supporting Actress for If Beale Street Could Talk as she appears to be the soft front-runner, with Amy Adams (Vice) and the women of The Favourite (Emma Stone, Rachel Weisz) lurking.
In down-the-line categories, Animated Feature went to Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse (which may just establish itself as a threat to Incredibles 2). Minding the Gap got the Non-Fiction race and Cold War took Best Foreign Language Film.
Other groups will be weighing in soon and I’ll have all the coverage right here!
It’s only mid-October, but the first significant precursor of awards season rolled out nominations today in the form of the Gotham Awards. If you’re not familiar, the Gothams honor independent film in a limited number of categories.
While not as prolific as the Golden Globes or SAG nominations, there has been a correlation with movies and performers nominated here getting Oscar attention. Let’s take a look at the past five Gotham awards nominees and how they matched up with the Academy:
In 2013, 12 Years a Slave was nominated for Best Feature and went on to win the Oscar. In the Best Actor race, eventual Academy winner Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club) was victorious here and Chiwetel Ejiofor (Slave) also was nominated for both. Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine) was nominated here and went on to win the gold statue. It’s worth noting that the Gothams do not have supporting acting categories (we’ll get to that in a minute).
In 2014, three movies that got Best Picture nods were honored here: Birdman (Oscar winner), Boyhood, and The Grand Budapest Hotel. In the acting races, Michael Keaton (Birdman) and Oscar/Gotham winner Julianne Moore (Still Alice) were included.
For 2015, no Best Actor nominees for the Gothams correlated to Oscars. However, there were actress match-ups with Oscar winner Brie Larson (Room) and Cate Blanchett (Carol). Also – the Gotham and Oscar Best Picture winners were the same – Spotlight.
That happened once again in 2016 as Moonlight won the Oscar and the Gotham. Manchester by the Sea was also nominated for both. Casey Affleck’s work in that film won Best Actor at both ceremonies. For Actress, Natalie Portman as Jackie got double nods.
Last year, two Gotham Film nominees got Best Picture recognition: Call Me by Your Name and Get Out. In Actor, it was Daniel Kaluuya for Get Out as a double recipient. In Actress, same goes for Saoirse Ronan (Lady Bird) and Margot Robbie (I, Tonya). And coming back to the fact that there’s no supporting races, Willem Dafoe received an Actor nomination at the Gothams for The Florida Project while being recognized for Supporting Actor at the Oscars.
So, as you can see, there’s usually some overlap for the two ceremonies. And that brings us to today’s nominees and how I think that overlap will occur this year:
In the Gotham Best Feature race, the nominees are:
The Favourite
First Reformed
If Beale Street Could Talk
Madeline’s Madeline
The River
The average number of Gotham/Oscar film nominees lately has been two and that likely holds true here with The Favourite and If Beale Street Could Talk. The other three are highly unlikely to get Academy recognition.
In the Best Actor race, the nominees are:
Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman
Ben Foster, Leave No Trace
Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Ethan Hawke, First Reformed
LaKeith Stanfield, Sorry to Bother You
Grant is probably this year’s Willem Dafoe and will be recognized by the Academy in Supporting Actor. Adam Driver falls in the same category, but is more of a long shot. Stanfield is out of the running for Actor at the Oscars, while Foster and Hawke remain possibilities. That said – like 2015 – this could well be a year where there’s no matches.
That is not the case with Actress and the nominees are:
Glenn Close, The Wife
Toni Collette, Hereditary
Kathryn Hahn, Private Life
Regina Hall, Support the Girls
Michelle Pfeiffer, Where is Kyra?
Collette is a possible nominee, but it’s Close that seems a near lock for Oscar attention and a possible win. The others? Not so much.
Finally, a Special Jury prize was initiated that honors the three actresses from The Favourite. That would be Olivia Colman, Emma Stone, and Rachel Weisz and all three could find themselves in the mix at Oscar time. The Gothams did the same jury designation for 2014’s Foxcatcher and 2015’s Spotlight.
So there you have it! My take on how the Gotham Awards will relate to the biggest awards show of all…
Nineteen year old actress Amandla Stenberg is most known for her work as Rue in the original HungerGames and the 2017 romance Everything, Everything (she also headlined this summer’s box office flop TheDarkestMinds). The Toronto Film Festival has screened TheHateUGive, George Tillman Jr.’s crime drama where Stenberg’s character witnesses the shooting of her childhood best friend.
Early reviews suggest it could be a breakout role for the performer. The supporting cast includes Regina Hall, Common, and Anthony Mackie. The pic is based on last year’s YA novel by Angie Thomas. Tillman Jr. has seen many of his pics achieve financial success, such as SoulFood, Barbershop and Notorious. Awards recognition has alluded him.
Bottom line: TheHateUGive will need to get noticed by audiences in order for that recognition to have any chance. While reviews are strong, I’d say Oscar nods are a long shot and that includes Stenberg.
The film is slated for release on October 19. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
Opening this weekend in limited release is SupporttheGirls, a working class comedy from indie director Andrew Bujalski. It premiered at the South by Southwest festival earlier this spring and reaction was quite positive. More reviews are now rolling out and with over a dozen in, it stands at 100% on Rotten Tomatoes.
Particular raves have gone to Regina Hall, who plays the caring manager of a low rent Hooters type sports bar. Nearly every reaction I’ve seen lauds her work and singles her out. Other costars include Haley Lu Richardson, James Le Gros, and AJ Michalka.
Support may be deemed too small to gather any Oscar buzz and a nomination for Hall is an extreme long shot. However, don’t be surprised if several critics point her out as someone whom Academy voters should pay attention to. That would put her in similar company to recent comedic turns that were ignored like Emma Stone in EasyA, Hailee Steinfeld in TheEdgeofSeventeen, and Hall’s GirlsTrip costar Tiffany Haddish.
Like yesterday’s Year of 2017 honoree Kumail Nanjiani, Tiffany Haddish started 2017 as a stand-up comic not known to a large swath of the American public. Yet as the year draws to its close, Haddish is now quite well-known due to her scene stealing performance in the summer’s comedic sleeper hit.
Alongside Regina Hall, Queen Latifah, and Jada Pinkett Smith, it was Haddish who garnered the most buzz in GirlsTrip, which surprised all prognosticators when it grossed $115 million. It was 2016’s Keanu that gave Haddish her first notable role, but that picture was largely ignored. Yet her raw, profane and outlandish Dina character gave the actress a showcase filled with standout moments.
Critics groups and Hollywood have certainly taken notice. Haddish became the first African American comic to host “Saturday Night Live” this fall. In 2018, she will reunite with Trip director Malcolm D. Lee for NightSchool with Kevin Hart.
Expect to see lots of Haddish in the coming years and 2017 was unquestionably her breakout.
Bloggers Note (07/19/17): I have revised my number from original post below to $27.3 million as the film’s breakout potential continues to grow.
It’s been a rather rough go for comedies in the summer of 2017 as Snatched, Baywatch, Rough Night, and The House have all performed under expectations. That could change next weekend as Malcolm D. Lee’s Girls Trip may have some breakout potential.
The raunchy comedy, shot for a rather meager $28 million, stars Queen Latifah and Jada Pinkett Smith (reuniting after appearing over 20 years ago together in Set It Off) as well as Regina Hall and Tiffany Haddish. The quarter play a group of friends on vacation together in New Orleans. Larenz Tate, Kate Walsh, and Mike Colter are among the supporting cast.
Early reviews have been quite positive with critics noting it could be a sleeper. They’re probably right. Estimates for Girls Trip have put it around $15-$17 million for the opening weekend, but I expect word-of-mouth will push it around $20 million. That would actually put it above my estimate for Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets, which premieres the same day.
Girls Trip opening weekend prediction: $27.3 million
Screen Gems has quite a profitable enterprise going for the last two years and will try to keep it up for a third with When the Bough Breaks, opening next weekend. The thriller stars Morris Chestnut, Regina Hall, and Jaz Sinclair and was produced for a mere $13 million.
In 2014, the studio put out the similarly themed No Good Deed. The result was a $24.2 million opening. Last year, it was The Perfect Guy (also featuring Chestnut) and it took in $25.9 million for its start. These romantic potboilers have largely appealed to African-American female audiences over 30 and are pretty much critic proof (Perfect Guy didn’t bother to screen for reviewers).
I don’t see much reason why Bough wouldn’t break out in the same way. In fact, I believe it stands an excellent chance at being #1 next weekend over the Clint Eastwood directed/Tom Hanks starring Sully. A debut in the low to mid 20s looks probable for another Screen Gems cash cow.
When the Bough Breaks opening weekend prediction: $22.7 million
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