Shaun the Sheep: The Beast of Mossy Bottom hopes to become the third feature in a row in the franchise to nab an Animated Feature mention at the Oscars. Based on the TV series spun off from Wallace & Gromit, Steve Cox and Matthew Walker take over directorial duties for the stop-motion hijinks. The voiceover cast includes Justin Fletcher, John Sparkes, Kate Harbour, Dani Dyer, and Nina Sosanya. GKIDS is handling domestic distribution with a limited release this weekend.
Previous Sheep sagas have lost to Pixar pics. 2015’s Shaun the Sheep Movie fell short to Inside Out while 2020’s Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon couldn’t catch Soul. Reviews for third tale are favorable with 98% on Rotten Tomatoes and 80 on Metacritic.
I have yet to put Bottom in my top five in the animated race. I’m questioning whether I’m underestimating it. I kind of figured voters may glaze over it. However, if titles like Ray Gunn and Wildwood don’t meet their potential this fall, this could definitely nab a spot in the quintet and it might anyway. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
I did my last Oscar predictions update as August closed out and a lot has occurred since then. The Venice and Telluride Film Festivals have come and gone and Toronto’s is ongoing. We have buzz, reviews, and WOM on plenty more movies. You can peruse my blog for detailed posts on them.
So what’s changed and what’s changed the same? Let’s start with the same. The Odyssey and The Black Ball are still 1-2 in BP while Wild Horse Nine and The Debut have risen after their festival debuts. Yet there’s only a single newcomer in BP and it’s from a foreign feature that premiered months ago at Cannes. I’m swapping in All of a Sudden for Fjord (which won the Palme d’Or at that French fest back in May).
In Other Possibilities in Best Picture, You Can See Everything pops up in 19th. At Telluride, it was a project no one knew existed and the documentary focused on Nathan Fielder’s dealings with Elizabeth Holmes sits at #2 in Doc Feature behind new #1 NAZA. That doc received the longest recorded standing ovation in Venice history. Everything has a teaser that has already inspired countless memes.
In Best Actress, I already had Julianne Moore (The Debut) in 1st place but its unveiling certainly solidifies it. Same goes for her costar in Paul Giamatti in Supporting Actor.
John Malkovich rises to 1st in Best Actor for Wild Horse Nine with Elsinore‘s Andrew Scott on his heels and Matt Damon (The Odyssey) dropping from 1st to 3rd.
The All of a Sudden momentum benefits Virginie Efira in Best Actress. She joins the projected quintet with Renate Reinsve (Fjord) on the outside looking in. Efira’s costar Tao Okamoto rises in Supporting Actress as does Samantha Morton (The Odyssey) with Mariana di Girolamo (Wild Horse Nine) and Olivia Colman (Elsinore) dropping.
You can read all the movement below. I’ll note that The Odyssey is back up to 16 nominations which ties it with Sinners for the all-time record. My next update is coming in two weeks!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (+1)
4. The Debut (PR: 8) (+4)
5. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (-2)
6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Invite (PR: 7) (E)
8. Obsession (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Behemoth! (PR: 10) (+1)
10. All of a Sudden (PR: 13) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
11. Fjord (PR: 6) (-5)
12. Digger (PR: 12) (E)
13. Michael (PR: 15) (+2)
14. Possible Love (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Elsinore (PR: 14) (-1)
16. I Play Rocky (PR: Not Ranked)
17. Ink (PR: 11) (-6)
18. Club Kid (PR: 24) (+6)
19. You Can See Everything (PR: Not Ranked)
20. The Social Reckoning (PR: 17) (-3)
21. Werwulf (PR: 19) (-2)
22. Being Heumann (PR: 20) (-2)
23. Primetime (PR: 16) (-7)
24. Josephine (PR: 22) (-2)
25. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 18) (-7)
Dropped Out:
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth
Disclosure Day
A Long Winter
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo, The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)
4. Olivia Wilde, The Invite (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Jesse Eisenberg, The Debut (PR: 11) (+6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden (PR: 10) (+4)
7. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (E)
8. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Cristian Mingiu, Fjord (PR: 4) (-5)
10. Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Digger (PR: 8) (-2)
11. Tony Gilroy, Behemoth! (PR: 9) (-2)
12. Lee Chang-dong, Possible Love (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Curry Barker, Obsession (PR: 13) (E)
14. Danny Boyle, Ink (PR: 12) (-2)
15. Robert Eggers, Werwulf (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Lance Oppenheim, Primetime
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Julianne Moore, The Debut (PR: 1) (E)
2. Inde Navarrette, Obsession (PR: 2) (E)
3. Olivia Wilde, The Invite (PR: 3) (E)
4. Sandra Hüller, Rose (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Renate Reinsve, Fjord (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie (PR: 7) (E)
8. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Léa Seydoux, Gentle Monster (PR: 11) (+2)
10. Rosalind Eleazar, Misty Green (PR: 14) (+4)
11. Emily Blunt, Disclosure Day (PR: 8) (-3)
12. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning (PR: 9) (-4)
14. Sandra Hüller, Fatherland (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Mason Reeves, Josephine (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Andrew Scott, Elsinore (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Matt Damon, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (-2)
4. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Robert Pattinson, Primetime (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tom Cruise, Digger (PR: 6) (E)
7. Pedro Pascal, Behemoth! (PR: 7) (E)
8. Anthony Ippolito, I Play Rocky (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Jaafar Jackson, Michael (PR: 9) (E)
10. Sebastian Stan, Fjord (PR: 8) (-2)
11. John Turturro, The Only Living Pickpocket in New York (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Seth Rogen, The Invite (PR: 10) (-2)
13. Andrew Garfield, Artificial (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Jordan Firstman, Club Kid (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jack O’Connell, Ink
Dominic Sessa, Tony
Javier Bardem, The Beloved
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Penélope Cruz, The Invite (PR: 2) (E)
3. Samantha Morton, The Odyssey (PR: 7) (+4)
4. Lola Dueñas, The Black Ball (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Tao Okamoto, All of a Sudden (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Olivia Colman, Elsinore (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Penélope Cruz, The Black Ball (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Mariana di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (-5)
9. Sandra Hüller, Digger (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 12) (+2)
11. Scarlett Johansson, Paper Tiger (PR: 15) (+4)
12. Gillian Anderson, Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Eva Victor, Behemoth! (PR: 14) (+1)
14. Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 9) (-5)
15. Elizabeth Debicki, The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Claire Foy, Ink
Esmé Creed-Miles, Sense and Sensibility
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Paul Giamatti, The Debut (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 2) (E)
3. Edward Norton, The Invite (PR: 3) (E)
4. John Leguizamo, The Odyssey (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Guy Pearce, Ink (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. John Goodman, Digger (PR: 6) (E)
7. Robert Pattinson, The Odyssey (PR: 14) (+7)
8. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning (PR: 8) (E)
9. Colman Domingo, Michael (PR: 9) (E)
10. Guitarricadelafuente, The Black Ball (PR: 10) (E)
11. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 7) (-4)
12. Skyler Gisondo, Primetime (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Riz Ahmed, Digger (PR: 11) (-2)
14. Channing Tatum, Josephine (PR: 12) (-2)
15. Tom Holland, The Odyssey (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Mark Ruffalo, Being Heumann
Daniel Kaluuya, Misty Green
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Debut (PR: 2) (E)
3. Obsession (PR: 3) (E)
4. Fjord (PR: 4) (E)
5. Club Kid (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Behemoth! (PR: 6) (E)
7. Tender Loving Care (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Digger (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Possible Love (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Elsinore (PR: 5) (-5)
Dropped Out:
The Drama
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Invite (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Odyssey (PR: 3) (E)
4. All of a Sudden (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Project Hail Mary (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Ink (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Primetime (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The Social Reckoning (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 10) (E)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Black Ball (PR: 1) (E)
2. All of a Sudden (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Fjord (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Possible Love (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Minotaur (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Fatherland (PR: 6) (E)
7. Rose (PR: 7) (E)
8. Woman Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Coward (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Silent Friend (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Mimesis
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wildwood (PR: 1) (E)
2. Toy Story 5 (PR: 2) (E)
3. Ray Gunn (PR: 3) (E)
4. Tangles (PR: 4) (E)
5. Iron Boy (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Hoppers (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Forgotten Island (PR: 6) (-1)
8. In Waves (PR: 8) (E)
9. Shaun the Sheep: The Beast of Mossy Bottom (PR: 9) (E)
10. Coyote vs. Acme (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Hexed
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. NAZA (PR: 3) (+2)
2. You Can See Everything (PR: Not Ranked)
3. Once Upon a Time in Harlem (PR: 1) (-2)
4. American Doctor (PR: 2) (-2)
5. One in a Million (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. 14th (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Rehearsals for a Revolution (PR: 10) (+3)
8. To Hold a Mountain (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Nuisance Bear (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Closure (PR: 7) (-3)
Dropped Out:
The History of Concrete
Best Casting
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 2) (+1)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Debut (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Being Heumann (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Michael (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Digger (PR: 7) (E)
8. All of a Sudden (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Fjord (PR: 4) (-5)
10. Dune: Part Three (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
The Invite
Elsinore
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 2) (E)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 4) (+1)
4. The Black Ball (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Digger (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Fatherland (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Werwulf (PR: 7) (E)
8. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 8) (E)
9. Behemoth! (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Disclosure Day (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sense and Sensbility (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Werwulf (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Michael (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (E)
7. Wuthering Heights (PR: 9) (+2)
8. The Devil Wears Prada 2 (PR: 8) (E)
9. I Love Boosters (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Mother Mary (PR: 10) (E)
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 4) (+1)
4. The Debut (PR: Not Ranked)
5. Behemoth! (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Invite (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Digger (PR: 9) (E)
10. You Can See Everything (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Ink
Fjord
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Werwulf (PR: 1) (E)
2. Digger (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Odyssey (PR: 6) (+3)
4. Wicker (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Michael (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Clayface (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (E)
8. Rose (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Elsinore (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Black Ball (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Obsession
Is God Is
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Behemoth! (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Disclosure Day (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 7) (+1)
7. The Debut (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Digger (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Werwulf (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Social Reckoning
Wildwood
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “This City May Have Chewed Me Up (But It Hasn’t Spit Me Out)” from The Debut (PR: 4) (+3)
2. “La Nieve” from The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. “I Knew It, I Knew You” from Toy Story 5 (PR: 1) (-2)
4. “By Any Means” from By Any Means (PR: 3) (-1)
5. “How to Write a Song (Without You)” from Power Ballad (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Let Me Sell You a Dream” from Musk (PR: Not Ranked)
7. “When I’m Home” from The Odyssey (PR: 6) (-1)
8. “Runway” from The Devil Wears Prada 2 (PR: 7) (-1)
9. “Chains of Love” from Wuthering Heights (PR: 9) (E)
10. “Save the Day” from Hoppers (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
TBD from Wildwood
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 2) (E)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Black Ball (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Backrooms (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Werwulf (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Digger (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 8) (E)
9. Wuthering Heights (PR: 9) (E)
10. Wild Horse Nine (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 2) (E)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Black Ball (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Behemoth! (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Michael (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Disclosure Day (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Werwulf (PR: 10) (+2)
9. The Debut (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Digger (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Whalefall
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Three (PR: 1) (E)
2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Odyssey (PR: 3) (E)
4. Whalefall (PR: 4) (E)
5. Spider-Man: Brand New Day (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Avengers: Doomsday (PR: 7) (+1)
7. The Sheep Detectives (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Godzilla Minus Zero (PR: 6) (-2)
9. The End of Oak Street (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Disclosure Day (PR: 10) (E)
That works out to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:
16 Nominations
The Odyssey
13 Nominations
The Black Ball
9 Nominations
Project Hail Mary
8 Nominations
The Debut
6 Nominations
The Invite, Wild Horse Nine
5 Nominations
All of a Sudden, Dune: Part Three
4 Nominations
Behemoth!
3 Nominations
Obsession
2 Nominations
Digger, Fjord, Michael, Toy Story 5, Werwulf
1 Nomination
American Doctor, Backrooms, Being Heumann, By Any Means, Club Kid, Disclosure Day, Ink, Elsinore, Iron Boy, Minotaur, NAZA, Once Upon a Time in Harlem, One in a Million, Possible Love, Power Ballad, Primetime, Ray Gunn, Rose, Sense and Sensibility, Spider-Man Brand New Day, Tangles, Whalefall, Wicker, Wildwood, You Can See Everything
As August closes out and September dawns, film festival season is nearly upon us. Venice begins on Wednesday with Telluride playing out over Labor Day weekend. Between those two events, we are expected to get screenings and critical reaction for Martin McDonagh’s Wild Horse Nine, Jesse Eisenberg’s The Debut, Danny Boyle’s Ink, Lance Oppenheim’s Primetime, Florian Zeller’s Bunker, Mike Leigh’s Tender Loving Care, Simon Stone’s Elsinore, Andrew Haigh’s A Long Winter, and Werner Herzog’s Bucking Fastard to name a few.
September 10th brings Toronto with their own premieres including Sian Heder’s Being Heumann, Chris Rock’s Misty Green, Susanna White’s Prima Facie, Peter Farrelly’s I Play Rocky, and Bassam Tariq’s Your Mother Your Mother Your Mother.
Needless to say you can expect a bunch of Oscar Prediction posts over the next three weeks. And if history is any guide, my next update in a couple weekends should look quite different.
Away from festival buzz, there was a significant piece of news since my last update two weeks ago. It was announced that Diane Warren is behind the title track to the upcoming By Any Means starring Yayha Abdul-Mateen II and Mark Wahlberg. The songwriter has famously racked up 17 Best Original Song nominations without a win. She currently is up to nine noms in a row since 2017. It would be foolish to not include her in my five predicted tracks.
There’s not a ton of movement in the major races though it is a solid update for The Invite. Olivia Wilde’s dramedy rises to the #1 spot in Adapted Screenplay over The Black Ball with the filmmaker entering the directorial quintet for the first time. She knocks out Phil Lord and Christopher Miller (Project Hail Mary).
You can read all the movement below and expect plenty of posts in the coming days and weeks as the festivals commence!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)
4. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (E)
5. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (+1)
6. Fjord (PR: 7) (+1)
7. The Invite (PR: 8) (+1)
8. The Debut (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Obsession (PR: 9) (E)
10. Behemoth! (PR: 10) (E)
Other Possibilities:
11. Ink (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Digger (PR: 11) (-1)
13. All of a Sudden (PR: 13) (E)
14. Elsinore (PR: 16) (+2)
15. Michael (PR: 15) (E)
16. Primetime (PR: 18) (+2)
17. The Social Reckoning (PR: 14) (-3)
18. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 17) (-1)
19. Werwulf (PR: 21) (+2)
20. Being Heumann (PR: 22) (+2)
21. The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 20) (-1)
22. Josephine (PR: 25) (+3)
23. Disclosure Day (PR: 24) (+1)
24. Club Kid (PR: Not Ranked)
25. A Long Winter (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Fatherland
Artificial
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo, The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)
4. Cristian Mungiu, Fjord (PR: 4) (E)
5. Olivia Wilde, The Invite (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (E)
8. Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Digger (PR: 8) (E)
9. Tony Gilroy, Behemoth! (PR: 9) (E)
10. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Jesse Eisenberg, The Debut (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Danny Boyle, Ink (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Curry Barker, Obsession (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Lance Oppenheim, Primetime (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Robert Eggers, Werwulf (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Pawel Pawlikowski, Fatherland
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Julianne Moore, The Debut (PR: 1) (E)
2. Inde Navarrette, Obsession (PR: 2) (E)
3. Olivia Wilde, The Invite (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Renate Reinsve, Fjord (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Sandra Hüller, Rose (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Virginie Efira, Al of a Sudden (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Emily Blunt, Disclosure Day (PR: 12) (+4)
9. Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Léa Seydoux, Gentle Monster (PR: 9) (-2)
12. Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Sandra Hüller, Fatherland (PR: 10) (-3)
14. Rosalind Eleazar, Misty Green (PR: 14) (E)
15. Mason Reeves, Josephine (PR: 15) (E)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Matt Damon, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 2) (E)
3. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)
4. Andrew Scott, Elsinore (PR: 4) (E)
5. Robert Pattinson, Primetime (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tom Cruise, Digger (PR: 6) (E)
7. Pedro Pascal, Behemoth! (PR: 7) (E)
8. Sebastian Stan, Fjord (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Jaafar Jackson, Michael (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Seth Rogen, The Invite (PR: 10) (E)
11. Jack O’Connell, Ink (PR: 12) (+1)
12. John Turturro, The Only Living Pickpocket in New York (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three (PR: 14) (+1)
14. Dominic Sessa, Tony (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Javier Bardem, The Beloved (PR: 15) (E)
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Penélope Cruz, The Invite (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Mariana di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Olivia Colman, Elsinore (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Lola Dueñas, The Black Ball (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Penélope Cruz, The Black Ball (PR: 6) (E)
7. Samantha Morton, The Odyssey (PR: 7) (E)
8. Tao Okamoto, All of a Sudden (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 11) (+2)
10. Sandra Hüller, Digger (PR: 8) (-2)
11. Claire Foy, Ink (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 9) (-3)
13. Esmé Creed-Miles, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 13) (E)
14. Eva Victor, Behemoth! (PR: 14) (E)
15. Scarlett Johansson, Paper Tiger (PR: 15) (E)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Paul Giamatti, The Debut (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 2) (E)
3. Edward Norton, The Invite (PR: 3) (E)
4. Guy Pearce, Ink (PR: 4) (E)
5. John Leguizamo, The Odyssey (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. John Goodman, Digger (PR: 6) (E)
7. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 7) (E)
8. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning (PR: 8) (E)
9. Colman Domingo, Michael (PR: 9) (E)
10. Guitarradelafuente, The Black Ball (PR: 10) (E)
11. Riz Ahmed, Digger (PR: 13) (+2)
12. Channing Tatum, Josephine (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Mark Ruffalo, Being Heumann (PR: 11) (-2)
14. Robert Pattinson, The Odyssey (PR: 12) (-2)
15. Daniel Kaluuya, Misty Green (PR: 15) (E)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Debut (PR: 2) (E)
3. Obsession (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Fjord (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Elsinore (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Behemoth! (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Digger (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Club Kid (PR: 8) (E)
9. Tender Loving Care (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Drama (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Primetime (moved to Adapted Screenplay)
Artificial
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Invite (PR: 3) (+2)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 1) (-1)
3. The Odyssey (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Project Hail Mary (PR: 4) (E)
5. All of a Sudden (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ink (PR: 6) (E)
7. Primetime (PR: Not Ranked – moved from Original Screenplay)
8. Dune: Part Three (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Social Reckoning (PR: 7) (-2)
10. The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Sense and Sensibility
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Black Ball (PR: 1) (E)
2. Fjord (PR: 2) (E)
3. All of a Sudden (PR: 3) (E)
4. Minotaur (PR: 4) (E)
5. Possible Love (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Fatherland (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Rose (PR: 7) (E)
8. Coward (PR: 8) (E)
9. Mimesis (PR: 9) (E)
10. Silent Friend (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Beloved
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wildwood (PR: 1) (E)
2. Toy Story 5 (PR: 2) (E)
3. Ray Gunn (PR: 3) (E)
4. Tangles (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Iron Boy (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Forgotten Island (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Hoppers (PR: 7) (E)
8. In Waves (PR: 8) (E)
9. Shaun the Sheep: The Beast of Mossy Bottom (PR: 9) (E)
10. Hexed (PR: 10) (E)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Once Upon a Time in Harlem (PR: 1) (E)
2. American Doctor (PR: 2) (E)
3. NAZA (PR: Not Ranked)
4. 14th (PR: 3) (-1)
5. One in a Million (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. To Hold a Mountain (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Closure (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Nuisance Bear (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The History of Concrete (PR: 9) (E)
10. Rehearsals for Revolution (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
When a Witness Recants
Musk
Best Casting
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (+1)
2. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)
4. Fjord (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Michael (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Debut (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Digger (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The Invite (PR: 8) (E)
9. Elsinore (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Dune: Part Three (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Being Heumann
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Black Ball (PR: 3) (E)
4. Project Hail Mary (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Fatherland (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Digger (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Werwulf (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Disclosure Day (PR: 9) (E)
10. Behemoth! (PR: 10) (E)
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Werwulf (PR: 3) (E)
4. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 4) (E)
5. Michael (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (E)
7. I Love Boosters (PR: 9) (+2)
8. The Devil Wears Prada 2 (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Wuthering Heights (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Mother Mary (PR: 10) (E)
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Behemoth! (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Invite (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Ink (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Digger (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Fjord (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Debut
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Werwulf (PR: 1) (E)
2. Digger (PR: 2) (E)
3. Wicker (PR: 7) (+4)
4. Clayface (PR: 4) (E)
5. Rose (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Odyssey (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Michael (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Obsession (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Is God Is (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
The Black Ball
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Black Ball (PR: 6) (+3)
4. Disclosure Day (PR: 4) (E)
5. Behemoth! (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 7) (E)
8. Digger (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Social Reckoning (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Wildwood (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Ink
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “I Knew It, I Knew You” from Toy Story 5 (PR: 1) (E)
2. “La Nieve” from The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. “By Any Means” from By Any Means (PR: Not Ranked)
4. TBD from The Debut (PR: 3) (-1)
5. “How to Write a Song (Without You)” from Power Ballad (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. “When I’m Home” from The Odyssey (PR: 4) (-2)
7. “Runway” from The Devil Wears Prada 2 (PR: 6) (-1)
8. TBD from Wildwood (PR: Not Ranked)
9. “Chains of Love” from Wuthering Heights (PR: 8) (-1)
10. “Save the Day” from Hoppers (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
“La Playa” from The Black Ball
TBD from Hexed
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 2) (E)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)
4. Werwulf (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Black Ball (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Digger (PR: 6) (E)
7. Backrooms (PR: 7) (E)
8. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 8) (E)
9. Wuthering Heights (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 10) (E)
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)
4. Behemoth! (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Disclosure Day (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Black Ball (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Michael (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Digger (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Whalefall (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Werwulf (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Three (PR: 1) (E)
2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Odyssey (PR: 3) (E)
4. Whalefall (PR: 4) (E)
5. Spider-Man: Brand New Day (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Godzilla Minus Zero (PR: 6) (E)
7. Avengers: Doomsday (PR: 7) (E)
8. The End of Oak Street (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Sheep Detectives (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Disclosure Day (PR: 10) (E)
That equates to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:
14 Nominations
The Odyssey
12 Nominations
The Black Ball
9 Nominations
Project Hail Mary
8 Nominations
Wild Horse Nine
6 Nominations
Fjord, The Invite
5 Nominations
The Debut, Dune: Part Three
4 Nominations
Behemoth!
3 Nominations
Elsinore, Obsession, Werwulf
2 Nominations
All of a Sudden, Disclosure Day, Michael, Rose. Toy Story 5
1 Nomination
14th, American Doctor, By All Means, Clayface, Digger, Fatherland, Ink, Iron Boy, Minotaur, NAZA, Once Upon a Time in Harlem, One in a Million, Possible Love, Power Ballad, Primetime, Ray Gunn, Sense and Sensibility, Spider-Man: Brand New Day, Tangles, Whalefall, Wicker. Wildwood
It goes without saying that the upcoming festivals will dramatically reshape the 99th Academy Awards. That’s in addition to numerous fall titles that will premiere beyond the late summer/early autumn festival slots.
There’s also the real chance that Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey could dominate the next ceremony. It has critical and audience love and fantastic box office grosses. Even though Nolan took over the 96th Oscars with Oppenheimer, history could repeat itself. I have it ranked #1 in a whopping 10 races. The Odyssey has held that perch in Picture and Director for a while. Yet for the first time, Matt Damon moves to the pole position in Best Actor with John Leguizamo making his inaugural appearance in the Supporting Actor quintet. My nomination count for Nolan’s epic grows from 14 to 16 and that ties it with last year’s Sinners for most mentions in the Academy’s history.
Another major development in Best Actor is Robert Pattinson (Primetime) moving into the high five with Pedro Pascal (Behemoth!) dipping out. In Supporting Actress, Olivia Colman (Elsinore) is in over Sandra Hüller (Project Hail Mary). Leguizamo’s aforementioned rise in Supporting Actor drops Steve Buscemi (Wild Horse Nine).
Finally, I’m condensing the screenplay derbies from 15 possibilities to 10. You can read all the movement below and expect one final update in two weeks before the madness we call Venice, Telluride, and Toronto begins!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)
4. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Debut (PR: 5) (E)
6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Fjord (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The Invite (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Obsession (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Behemoth! (PR: 8) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
11. Digger (PR: 11) (E)
12. Ink (PR: 13) (+1)
13. All of a Sudden (PR: 12) (-1)
14. The Social Reckoning (PR: 14) (E)
15. Michael (PR: 17) (+2)
16. Elsinore (PR: 15) (-1)
17. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 16) (-1)
18. Primetime (PR: Not Ranked)
19. Fatherland (PR: 19) (E)
20. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 18) (-2)
21. Werwulf (PR: 20) (-1)
22. Being Heumann (PR: 21) (-1)
23. Artificial (PR: 24) (+1)
24. Disclosure Day (PR: 22) (-2)
25. Josephine (PR: 23) (-2)
Dropped Out:
I Play Rocky
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo, The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)
4. Cristian Mungiu, Fjord (PR: 4) (E)
5. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Olivia Wilde, The Invite (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Digger (PR: 8) (E)
9. Tony Gilroy, Behemoth! (PR: 9) (E)
10. Jesse Eisenberg, The Debut (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Curry Barker, Obsession (PR: 12) (E)
13. Danny Boyle, Ink (PR: 13) (E)
14. Pawel Pawlikowski, Fatherland (PR: 14) (E)
15. Robert Eggers, Werwulf (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Georgia Oakley, Sense and Sensibility
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Julianne Moore, The Debut (PR: 1) (E)
2. Inde Navarrette, Obsession (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Renate Reinsve, Fjord (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Olivia Wilde, The Invite (PR: 4) (E)
5. Sandra Hüller, Rose (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning (PR: 7) (E)
8. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Léa Seydoux, Gentle Monster (PR: 13) (+4)
10. Sandra Hüller, Fatherland (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Emily Blunt, Disclosure Day (PR: 9) (-3)
13. Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Rosalind Eleazar, Misty Green (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Mason Reeves, Josephine (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Sophie Okonedo, Clarissa
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Matt Damon, The Odyssey (PR: 3) (+2)
2. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Andrew Scott, Elsinore (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Robert Pattinson, Primetime (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tom Cruise, Digger (PR: 6) (E)
7. Pedro Pascal, Behemoth! (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Jaafar Jackson, Michael (PR: 8) (E)
9. Sebastian Stan, Fjord (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Seth Rogen, The Invite (PR: 10) (E)
11. John Turturro, The Only Living Pickpocket in New York (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Jack O’Connell, Ink (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Dominic Sessa, Tony (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three (PR: 11) (-3)
15. Javier Bardem, The Beloved (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Andrew Garfield, Artificial
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Mariana di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 2) (E)
3. Penélope Cruz, The Invite (PR: 3) (E)
4. Lola Dueñas, The Black Ball (PR: 4) (E)
5. Olivia Colman, Elsinore (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Penélope Cruz, The Black Ball (PR: 6) (E)
7. Samantha Morton, The Odyssey (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Sandra Hüller, Digger (PR: 11) (+3)
9. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 5) (-4)
10. Tao Okamoto, All of a Sudden (PR: 8) (-2)
11. Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 9) (-2)
12. Claire Foy, Ink (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Esmé Creed-Miles, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Eva Victor, Behemoth! (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Scarlett Johansson, Paper Tiger (PR: 15) (E)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Paul Giamatti, The Debut (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 2) (E)
3. Edward Norton, The Invite (PR: 3) (E)
4. Guy Pearce, Ink (PR: 4) (E)
5. John Leguizamo, The Odyssey (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. John Goodman, Digger (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Colman Domingo, Michael (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Guittaricadelafuente, The Black Ball (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Mark Ruffalo, Being Heumann (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Robert Pattinson, The Odyssey (PR: 9) (-3)
13. Riz Ahmed, Digger (PR: 14) (+1)
14. Channing Tatum, Josephine (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Daniel Kaluuya, Misty Green (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
James Ortiz, Project Hail Mary
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Debut (PR: 2) (E)
3. Fjord (PR: 3) (E)
4. Obsession (PR: 4) (E)
5. Behemoth! (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Digger (PR: 6) (E)
7. Elsinore (PR: 7) (E)
8. Club Kid (PR: 8) (E)
9. Primetime (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Artificial (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
The Drama
Fatherland
I Play Rocky
Josephine
Misty Green
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Black Ball (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Odyssey (PR: 3) (+1)
3. The Invite (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Project Hail Mary (PR: 4) (E)
5. All of a Sudden (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ink (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Social Reckoning (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 9) (E)
10. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 11) (+1)
Dropped Out:
Being Heumann
Prima Facie
A Long Winter
Minotaur
Wildwood
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Black Ball (PR: 1) (E)
2. Fjord (PR: 2) (E)
3. All of a Sudden (PR: 3) (E)
4. Minotaur (PR: 4) (E)
5. Fatherland (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Possible Love (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Rose (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Coward (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Mimesis (PR: 10) (+1)
10. The Beloved (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wildwood (PR: 1) (E)
2. Toy Story 5 (PR: 2) (E)
3. Ray Gunn (PR: 3) (E)
4. Forgotten Island (PR: 4) (E)
5. Tangles (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Iron Boy (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Hoppers (PR: 6) (-1)
8. In Waves (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Shaun the Sheep: The Beast of Mossy Bottom (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Hexed (PR: 10) (E)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Once Upon a Time in Harlem (PR: 1) (E)
2. American Doctor (PR: 5) (+3)
3. 14th (PR: 2) (-1)
4. One in a Million (PR: 3) (-1)
5. To Hold a Mountain (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. When a Witness Recants (PR: 10) (+4)
7. Nuisance Bear (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Rehearsals for a Revolution (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The History of Concrete (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Musk (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Closure
Everybody to Kenmure Street
Best Casting
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. White Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Debut (PR: 8) (+4)
5. Michael (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Digger (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Fjord (PR: 4) (-3)
8. The Invite (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Being Heumann (PR: 10) (E)
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Black Ball (PR: 3) (E)
4. Digger (PR: 4) (E)
5. Fatherland (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Project Hail Mary (PR: 6) (E)
7. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Werwulf (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Disclosure Day (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Behemoth! (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Ink
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Werwulf (PR: 3) (E)
4. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 4) (E)
5. Michael (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Devil Wears Prada 2 (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Wuthering Heights (PR: 8) (E)
9. I Love Boosters (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Mother Mary (PR: 10) (E)
Best Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)
4. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (E)
5. Behemoth! (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (E)
7. Digger (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Invite (PR: 8) (E)
9. Ink (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Debut (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Fjord
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Werwulf (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Digger (PR: 1) (-1)
3. The Odyssey (PR: 3) (E)
4. Clayface (PR: 4) (E)
5. Michael (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (E)
7. Wicker (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Rose (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Black Ball (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Is God Is (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
The Bride!
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)
3. Behemoth! (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Disclosure Day (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Black Ball (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 7) (E)
8. Digger (PR: 8) (E)
9. Ink (PR: 9) (E)
10. Wildwood (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Social Reckoning
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “I Knew It, I Knew You” from Toy Story 5 (PR: 1) (E)
2. “La Nieve” from The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E) – previously listed as TBD
3. TBD from The Debut (PR: 4) (+1)
4. “When I’m Home” from The Odyssey (PR: 6) (+2)
5. “How to Write a Song (Without You)” from Power Ballad (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Runway” from The Devil Wears Prada 2 (PR: 7) (+1)
7. “La Playa” from The Black Ball (PR: 3) (-4)
8. “Chains of Love” from Wuthering Heights (PR: 9) (+1)
9. TBD from Hexed (PR: Not Ranked)
10. “Save the Day” from Hoppers (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
“Shape of a Woman” from The Devil Wears Prada 2
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 2) (E)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)
4. Werwulf (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Black Ball (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Digger (PR: 6) (E)
7. Backrooms (PR: 7) (E)
8. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 8) (E)
9. Wuthering Heights (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 10) (E)
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Three (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Odyssey (PR: 2) (E)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)
4. Disclosure Day (PR: 8) (+4)
5. Michael (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Behemoth! (PR: 4) (-2)
7. The Black Ball (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Whalefall (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Werwulf (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Digger (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Three (PR: 1) (E)
2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Odyssey (PR: 3) (E)
4. Whalefall (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Spider-Man: Brand New Day (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Godzilla Minus Zero (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Avengers: Doomsday (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The Sheep Detectives (PR: 8) (E)
9. The End of Oak Street (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Disclosure Day (PR: 10) (E)
And that equates to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:
16 Nominations
The Odyssey
11 Nominations
The Black Ball
9 Nominations
Project Hail Mary
8 Nominations
Wild Horse Nine
6 Nominations
The Debut, Dune: Part Three
5 Nominations
Fjord, The Invite
4 Nominations
Behemoth!, Michael
3 Nominations
Obsession, Werwulf
2 Nominations
All of a Sudden, Digger, Disclosure Day, Elsinore, Fatherland, Toy Story 5
1 Nomination
14th, American Doctor, Clayface, Forgotten Island, Ink, Minotaur, Once Upon a Time in Harlem, One in a Million, Power Ballad, Primetime, Ray Gunn, Rose, Sense and Sensibility, Spider-Man: Brand New Day, Tangles, To Hold a Mountain, Whalefall, Wildwood
As we enter the month of August, the fall film festival trio of Venice, Telluride, and Toronto are about a month away. Those fests will dramatically reshape the Oscar race for the 99th ceremony. In the meantime, we have Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey racking up terrific box office numbers and continuing to solidify its status as an across-the-board awards player.
There are release date questions while one significant feature has moved to the 2027 calendar. Chloe Domont’s A Place in Hell with Michelle Williams and Daisy Edgar-Jones will come out next spring and that’s why you’ll see it in the dropped out menu in various races including Picture, Actress, Supporting Actress, and Original Screenplay. Tom Ford’s Cry to Heaven has yet to be dated and appears to be skipping festivals. I’ve made the decision to take it out of contention until a release is scheduled.
On the other hand, Elsinore with Andrew Scott and Olivia Colman from Simon Stone is confirmed to come out this year and it could certainly be a possibility for its stars and elsewhere.
We have a big development in Best Picture and elsewhere. Simply put, I’m skeptical about Digger. It could absolutely get back in the mix once eyeballs are on it. However, Digger drops and The Invite rises. The Digger fall also dramatically shapes the acting races with Tom Cruise plummeting from 1st to 6th in Best Actor. Maybe this will look foolish down the line, but it’s where I’m at now.
You can read all the movement below and expect the next update in two weeks!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)
4. White Horse Nine (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Debut (PR: 6) (+1)
6. Fjord (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Dune: Part Three (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Behemoth! (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Invite (PR: 12) (+3)
10. Obsession (PR: 10) (E)
Other Possibilities:
11. Digger (PR: 5) (-6)
12. All of a Sudden (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Ink (PR: 13) (E)
14. The Social Reckoning (PR: 16) (+2)
15. Elsinore (PR: 21) (+6)
16. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 17) (+1)
17. Michael (PR: 20) (+3)
18. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 19) (+1)
19. Fatherland (PR: 18) (-1)
20. Werwulf (PR: Not Ranked)
21. Being Heumann (PR: 23) (+2)
22. Disclosure Day (PR: 24) (+2)
23. Josephine (PR: 25) (+2)
24. Artificial (PR: 22) (-2)
25. I Play Rocky (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
A Place in Hell
Cry to Heaven
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo, The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)
4. Cristian Mungiu, Fjord (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (+1)
10. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden (PR: 10) (E)
11. Jesse Eisenberg, The Debut (PR: 11) (E)
12. Curry Barker, Obsession (PR: 9) (-3)
13. Danny Boyle, Ink (PR: 13) (E)
14. Pawel Pawlikowski, Fatherland (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Georgia Oakley, Sense and Sensibility (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Tom Ford, Cry to Heaven
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Julianne Moore, The Debut (PR: 1) (E)
2. Renate Reinsve, Fjord (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Inde Navarrette, Obsession (PR: 3) (E)
4. Olivia Wilde, The Invite (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Sandra Hüller, Rose (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Emily Blunt, Disclosure Day (PR: 11) (+2)
10. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann (PR: 12) (+2)
11. Sandra Hüller, Fatherland (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Léa Seydoux, Gentle Monster (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Sophie Okonedo, Clarissa (PR: 14) (E)
15. Rosalind Eleazar, Misty Green (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Michelle Williams, A Place in Hell
Mason Reeves, Josephine
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (+2)
2. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)
3. Matt Damon, The Odyssey (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Pedro Pascal, Behemoth! (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Andrew Scott, Elsinore (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tom Cruise, Digger (PR: 1) (-5)
7. Sebastian Stan, Fjord (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Jaafar Jackson, Michael (PR: 8) (E)
9. Robert Pattinson, Primetime (PR: 9) (E)
10. Seth Rogen, The Invite (PR: Not Ranked)
11. Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three (PR: 13) (+2)
12. John Turturro, The Only Living Pickpocket in New York (PR: 10) (-2)
13. Jack O’Connell, Ink (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Andrew Garfield, Artificial (PR: 11) (-3)
15. Javier Bardem, The Beloved (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Dominic Sessa, Tony
Nicholas Hoult, Cry to Heaven
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Mariana Di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Penélope Cruz, The Invite (PR: 6) (+3)
4. Lola Dueñas, The Black Ball (PR: 10) (+6)
5. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Penélope Cruz, The Black Ball (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Olivia Colman, Elsinore (PR: 12) (+5)
8. Tao Okamoto, All of a Sudden (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Samantha Morton, The Odyssey (PR: 14) (+4)
11. Sandra Hüller, Digger (PR: 4) (-7)
12. Esmé Creed-Miles, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 15) (+3)
13. Eva Victor, Behemoth! (PR: 11) (-2)
14. Claire Foy, Ink (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Scarlett Johansson, Paper Tiger (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Daisy Edgar-Jones, A Place in Hell
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Paul Giamatti, The Debut (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Edward Norton, The Invite (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Guy Pearce, Ink (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. John Leguizamo, The Odyssey (PR: 12) (+6)
7. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning (PR: 7) (E)
8. John Goodman, Digger (PR: 2) (-6)
9. Robert Pattinson, The Odyssey (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Colman Domingo, Michael (PR: 8) (-2)
11. Guitarricadelafuente, The Black Ball (PR: 11) (E)
12. Mark Ruffalo, Being Heumann (PR: 14) (+2)
13. James Ortiz, Project Hail Mary (PR: 13) (E)
14. Riz Ahmed, Digger (PR: 9) (-5)
15. Channing Tatum, Josephine (PR: 15) (E)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Debut (PR: 2) (E)
3. Fjord (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Obsession (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Behemoth! (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Digger (PR: 2) (-3)
7. Elsinore (PR: 11) (+4)
8. Club Kid (PR: 8) (E)
9. Artificial (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Primetime (PR: 9) (-1)
11. The Drama (PR: 13) (+2)
12. Fatherland (PR: 12) (E)
13 . I Play Rocky (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Josephine (PR: 14) (E)
15. Misty Green (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
A Place in Hell
The Only Living Pickpocket in New York
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Black Ball (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Invite (PR: 4) (+2)
3. The Odyssey (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (-1)
5. All of a Sudden (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ink (PR: 6) (E)
7. Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Social Reckoning (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 9) (E)
10. Being Heumann (PR: 12) (+2)
11. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 11) (E)
12. Prima Facie (PR: 14) (+2)
13. A Long Winter (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Minotaur (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Wildwood (PR: 13) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Cry to Heaven
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Black Ball (PR: 1) (E)
2. Fjord (PR: 2) (E)
3. All of a Sudden (PE: 3) (E)
4. Minotaur (PR: 4) (E)
5. Possible Love (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Fatherland (PR: 6) (E)
7. Coward (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Rose (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The Beloved (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Mimesis (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wildwood (PR: 1) (E)
2. Toy Story 5 (PR: 2) (E)
3. Ray Gunn (PR: 3) (E)
4. Forgotten Island (PR: 4) (E)
5. Tangles (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Hoppers (PR: 6) (E)
7. In Waves (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Shaun the Sheep: The Beast of Mossy Bottom (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Iron Boy (PR: 9) (E)
10. Hexed (PR: 10) (E)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Once Upon a Time in Harlem (PR: 1) (E)
2. 14th (PR: 2) (E)
3. One in a Million (PR: 3) (E)
4. To Hold a Mountain (PR: 5) (+1)
5. American Doctor (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nuisance Bear (PR: 6) (E)
7. Closure (PR: Not Ranked)
8. The History of Concrete (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Everybody to Kenmure Street (PR: Not Ranked)
10. When a Witness Recants (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Rehearsals for a Revolution
Time and Water
Best Casting
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)
4. Fjord (PR: 4) (E)
5. Michael (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Invite (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Dune: Part Three (PR: 10) (+3)
8. The Debut (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Digger (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Being Heumann (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Obsession
Best Cinemtography
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Black Ball (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Digger (PR: 4) (E)
5. Fatherland (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Werwulf (PR: 7) (E)
8. Ink (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 9) (E)
10. Behemoth! (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Cry to Heaven
Disclosure Day
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 3) (E)
4. Werwulf (PR: 4) (E)
5. Michael (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (E)
7. I Love Boosters (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Wuthering Heights (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Devil Wears Prada 2 (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Mother Mary (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Cry to Heaven
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)
4. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Behemoth! (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Digger (PR: 4) (-3)
8. The Invite (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Fjord (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Debut (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Digger (PR: 1) (E)
2. Werwulf (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Odyssey (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Clayface (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Wicker (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Michael (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Rose (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Is God Is (PR: 10) (-1)
10. The Bride! (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
The Black Ball
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Black Ball (PR: 3) (E)
4. Behemoth! (PR: 4) (E)
5. Disclosure Day (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (E)
7. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 7) (E)
8. Digger (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Ink (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Social Reckoning (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Werwulf
Wildwood
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “I Knew It, I Knew You” from Toy Story 5 (PR: 1) (E)
2. TBD from The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. “La Playa” from The Black Ball (PR: 4) (+1)
4. TBD from The Debut (PR: 3) (-1)
5. “How to Write a Song (Without You)” from Power Ballad (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. “When I’m Home” from The Odyssey (PR: Not Ranked)
7. “Runway” from The Devil Wears Prada 2 (PR: 6) (-1)
8. “Shape of a Woman” from The Devil Wears Prada 2 (PR: Not Ranked)
9. “Chains of Love” from Wuthering Heights (PR: 9) (E)
10. “Save the Day” from Hoppers (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
TBD from The Odyssey
TBD from Wildwood
TBD from The Rivals of Amziah King
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 2) (E)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)
4. Werwulf (PR: 5) (+1)
5. The Black Ball (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Digger (PR: 6) (E)
7. Backrooms (PR: 7) (E)
8. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 8) (E)
9. Wuthering Heights (PR: 10) (+1)
10. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Cry to Heaven
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Three (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Odyssey (PR: 2) (E)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)
4. Behemoth! (PR: 8) (+4)
5. Michael (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Black Ball (PR: 6) (E)
7. Whalefall (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Disclosure Day (PR: 4) (-4)
9. Digger (PR: 9) (E)
10. Werwulf (PR: 10) (E)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Three (PR: 1) (E)
2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Odyssey (PR: 3) (E)
4. Godzilla Minus Zero (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Whalefall (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Avengers: Doomsday (PR: 6) (E)
7. The End of Oak Street (PR: 8) (+1)
8. The Sheep Detectives (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Spider-Man: Brand New Day (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Disclosure Day (PR: 7) (-3)
Dropped Out:
The Mandalorian and Grogu
That equates to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:
14 Nominations
The Odyssey
13 Nominations
The Black Ball
10 Nominations
Project Hail Mary
9 Nominations
Wild Horse Nine
6 Nominations
Behemoth!, Fjord
5 Nominations
Dune: Part Three, The Invite
3 Nominations
Michael, Obsession, Werwulf
2 Nominations
All of a Sudden, Digger, Toy Story 5
1 Nomination
14th, American Doctor, Clayface, Disclosure Day, Elsinore, Fatherland, Forgotten Island, Godzilla Minus Zero, Ink, Minotaur, Once Upon a Time in Harlem, One in a Million, Possible Love, Power Ballad, Ray Gunn, Rose, Sense and Sensibility, Tangles, To Hold a Mountain, Whalefall, Wicker, Wildwood
Moviegoers continue to get new looks at potential Oscar contenders in the last couple of weeks since my last predictions. We got our first extended glimpse for Alejandro Gonzalez Iñárritu’s Digger and it has sparked plenty of social media chatter for what appears to be a big swing for the filmmaker and Tom Cruise. I could see this going either way. For now I’m keeping it above the line in several of my forecasts.
This is the weekend where Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey is dominating the box office with the review embargo having lifted four days ago. The results are impressive with 95% on Rotten Tomatoes and an 89 Metacritic. It is a threat not only to be nominated in Best Picture and Director (which appears automatic) but to win. As I wrote about in my detailed prediction post, the acting races shifted a bit in my calculations. The “in or out” debate regarding Matt Damon continues. However, Anne Hathaway seems to have solidified a spot in Supporting Actress. Her costar Samantha Morton’s inclusion is less likely unless Universal mounts a spirited campaign. As for the Supporting Actors, Robert Pattinson/Tom Holland/John Leguizamo could materialize. Yet I wouldn’t be surprised if no consensus emerges among them and they all miss the cut.
Fall festivals are beginning to announce their lineups. The opener at Venice was revealed to be Danny Boyle’s Ink starring Jack O’Connell, Guy Pearce (as media titan Rupert Murdoch), and Claire Foy. This was a surprise considering the release date was expected to be 2027. It was also announced that Netflix will carry U.S. distribution rights. Now it’s a question mark whether the streamer will choose a limited theatrical engagement in 2026 followed by the small screen output. The high profile Venice slot has me leaning toward a premiere before the calendar year closes. It joins my lineup just on the outside looking in with Pearce projected in Supporting Actor.
Speaking of release date uncertainty, we still don’t know if Tom Ford’s Cry to Heaven (an adaptation of an Anne Rice novel) is out this year. I’m still listing it, but it drops out of my BP lineup. The beneficiary of that change is Tony Gilroy’s Behemoth! which unveiled its first trailer this week. Leading man Pedro Pascal also makes the cut for the first time over Sebastian Stan (Fjord). There’s also chatter that Joel Coen’s Jack of Spades is moving to 2027 and I’m moving it outside of my projections at press time.
The Toronto Film Festival’s lineup is beginning trickle out with Sian Heder’s Being Heumann serving as the opener and Prima Facie with Cynthia Erivo tagged as a gala presentation. Paper Tiger from James Gray, which played at Cannes to a mostly positive though not overwhelming reception, will be first out of the gate at the New York Film Festival.
You can read all the movement from the last two weeks below and expect a fresh update in a couple of weeks!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (E)
5. Digger (PR: 3) (-2)
6. The Debut (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Fjord (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Dune: Part Three (PR: 8) (E)
9. Behemoth! (PR: 12) (+3)
10. Obsession (PR: 9) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
11. All of a Sudden (PR: 11) (E)
12. The Invite (PR: 17) (+5)
13. Ink (PR: Not Ranked)
14. A Place in Hell (PR: 14) (E)
15. Cry to Heaven (PR: 10) (-5)
16. The Social Reckoning (PR: 13) (-3)
17. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 15) (-2)
18. Fatherland (PR: 16) (-2)
19. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 19) (E)
20. Michael (PR: 21) (+1)
21. Elsinore (PR: Not Ranked)
22. Artificial (PR: 18) (-4)
23. Being Heumann (PR: 23) (E)
24. Disclosure Day (PR: 20) (-4)
25. Josephine (PR: 22) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Jack of Spades
Werwulf
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Javier Ambrossi and Javie Calvo, The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
6. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 6) (E)
7. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Tony Gilroy, Behemoth! (PR: 13) (+5)
9. Curry Barker, Obsession (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden (PR: 10) (E)
11. Jesse Eisenberg, The Debut (PR: 11) (E)
12. Olivia Wilde, The Invite (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Danny Boyle, Ink (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Tom Ford, Cry to Heaven (PR: 9) (-5)
15. Pawel Pawlikowski, Fatherland (PR: 12) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Chloe Domont, A Place in Hell
Georgia Oakley, Sense and Sensibility
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Julianne Moore, The Debut (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Michelle Williams, A Place in Hell (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Inde Navarrette, Obsession (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Renate Reinsve, Fjord (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Sandra Hüller, Rose (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning (PR: 6) (E)
7. Olivia Wilde, The Invite (PR: 15) (+8)
8. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie (PR: 9) (E)
10. Sandra Hüller, Fatherland (PR: 10) (E)
11. Emily Blunt, Disclosure Day (PR: 8) (-3)
12. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann (PR: 12) (E)
13. Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 11) (-2)
14. Sophie Okonedo, Clarissa (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Mason Reeves, Josephine (PR: 14) (-1)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Tom Cruise, Digger (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)
3. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)
4. Matt Damon, The Odyssey (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Pedro Pascal, Behemoth! (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sebastian Stan, Fjord (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Andrew Scott, Elsinore (PR: 12) (+5)
8. Jaafar Jackson, Michael (PR: 8) (E)
9. Robert Pattinson, Primetime (PR: 10) (+1)
10. John Turturro, The Only Living Pickpocket in New York (PR: 7) (-3)
11. Andrew Garfield, Artificial (PR: 9) (-2)
12. Jack O’Connell, Ink (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Dominic Sessa, Tony (PR: 14) (E)
15. Nicholas Hoult, Cry to Heaven (PR: 11) (-4)
Dropped Out:
Rami Malek, The Man I Love
Javier Bardem, The Beloved
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mariana di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (E)
2. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey (PR: 7) (+5)
3. Penélope Cruz, The Black Ball (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Sandra Hüller, Digger (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Daisy Edgar-Jones, A Place in Hell (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Penélope Cruz, The Invite (PR: 6) (E)
7. Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 11) (+3)
9. Tao Okamoto, All of a Sudden (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Lola Dueñas, The Black Ball (PR: 13) (+3)
11. Eva Victor, Behemoth! (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Olivia Colman, Elsinore (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Claire Foy, Ink (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Samantha Morton, The Odyssey (PR: 10) (-4)
15. Esmé Creed-Miles, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 9) (-6)
Dropped Out:
Halle Bailey, The Debut
Scarlett Johansson, Paper Tiger
Elizabeth Debicki, The Adventures of Cliff Booth
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Paul Giamatti, The Debut (PR: 1) (E)
2. John Goodman, Digger (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)
4. Edward Norton, The Invite (PR: 8) (+4)
5. Guy Pearce, Ink (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning (PR: 7) (E)
8. Colman Domingo, Michael (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Riz Ahmed, Digger (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Robert Pattinson, The Odyssey (PR: 4) (-6)
11. Guittarricadelafuente, The Black Ball (PR: 14) (+3)
12. John Leguizamo, The Odyssey (PR: Not Ranked)
13. James Ortiz, Project Hail Mary (PR: 10) (-3)
14. Mark Ruffalo, Being Heumann (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Channing Tatum, Josephine (PR: 11) (-4)
Dropped Out:
Andrew Scott, A Place in Hell
Jesse Plemons, Digger
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Debut (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Digger (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Fjord (PR: 4) (E)
5. Obsession (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Behemoth! (PR: 6) (E)
7. A Place in Hell (PR: 7) (E)
8. Club Kid (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Primetime (PR: 12) (+3)
10. Artificial (PR: 8) (-2)
11. Elsinore (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Fatherland (PR: 13) (+1)
13. The Drama (PR: 15) (+2)
14. Josephine (PR: 14) (E)
15. The Only Living Pickpocket Living in New York (PR: 10) (-5)
Dropped Out:
Jack of Spades
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Black Ball (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Odyssey (PR: 2) (E)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Invite (PR: 5) (+1)
5. All of a Sudden (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ink (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Dune: Part Three (PR: 8) (+1)
8. The Social Reckoning (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 9) (E)
10. Cry to Heaven (PR: 6) (-4)
11. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Being Heumann (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Wildwood (PR: 13) (E)
14. Prima Facie (PR: 12) (-2)
15. Minotaur (PR: 14) (-1)
Dropped Out:
A Long Winter
Best International Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Black Ball (PR: 1) (E)
2. Fjord (PR: 2) (E)
3. All of a Sudden (PR: 3) (E)
4. Minotaur (PR: 4) (E)
5. Coward (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Fatherland (PR: 6) (E)
7. Rose (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Possible Love (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Mimesis (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Beloved (PR: 10) (E)
Best Animated Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wildwood (PR: 1) (E)
2. Toy Story 5 (PR: 2 (E)
3. Ray Gunn (PR: 3) (E)
4. Forgotten Island (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Tangles (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Hoppers (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Shaun the Sheep: The Beast of Mossy Bottom (PR: 8) (+1)
8. In Waves (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Iron Boy (PR: 9) (E)
10. Hexed (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Minions & Monsters
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Once Upon a Time in Harlem (PR: 1) (E)
2. 14th (PR: Not Ranked)
3. One in a Million (PR: 7) (+4)
4. American Doctor (PR: 6) (+2)
5. To Hold a Mountain (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nuisance Bear (PR: 2) (-4)
7. The History of Concrete (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Rehearsals for a Revolution (PR: 9) (+1)
9. When a Witness Recants (PR: 5) (-4)
10. Time and Water (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Everybody to Kenmure Street
Best Casting
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)
4. Fjord (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Michael (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Debut (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Digger (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Obsession (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Being Heumann (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Dune: Part Three (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Cry to Heaven
Behemoth!
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Digger (PR: 5) (+1)
5. The Black Ball (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Fatherland (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Werwulf (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Cry to Heaven (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Wild Horse Nine (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Disclosure Day (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Jack of Spades
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 3) (E)
4. Werwulf (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Michael (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Devil Wears Prada 2 (PR: 7) (E)
8. Wuthering Heights (PR: 9) (+1)
9. I Love Boosters (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Cry to Heaven (PR: 4) (-6)
Dropped Out:
Jack of Spades
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Digger (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Behemoth! (PR: 10) (+5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Fjord (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Debut (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Invite (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Cry to Heaven
Obsession
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Digger (PR: 1) (E)
2. Werwulf (PR: 2) (E)
3. Clayface (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Michael (PR: 5) (+1)
5. The Odyssey (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wicker (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Black Ball (PR: 6) (-2)
9. The Bride! (PR: 9) (E)
10. Is God Is (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Cry to Heaven
Madden
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (+1)
3. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Behemoth! (PR: Not Ranked)
5. Disclosure Day (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (E)
7. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Werwulf (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Digger (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Wildwood (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Cry to Heaven
The Social Reckoning
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “I Knew It, I Knew You” from Toy Story 5 (PR: 1) (E)
2. TBD from The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. TBD from The Debut (PR: 3) (E)
4. “La Playa” from The Black Ball (PR: 4) (E)
5. “How to Write a Song (Without You)” from Power Ballad (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Runway” from The Devil Wears Prada 2 (PR: 6) (E)
7. TBD from The Odyssey (PR: Not Ranked)
8. TBD from Wildwood (PR: Not Ranked)
9. “Chains of Love” from Wuthering Heights (PR: 7) (-2)
10. TBD from The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
TBD from Hexed
“Save the Day” from Hoppers
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (-1)
4. The Black Ball (PR: 4) (E)
5. Werwulf (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Digger (PR: 6) (E)
7. Backrooms (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Sense and Sensibility (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Cry to Heaven (PR: 5) (-4)
10. Wuthering Heights (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jack of Spades
The Adventures of Cliff Booth
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Three (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Odyssey (PR: 2) (E)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)
4. Disclosure Day (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Whalefall (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Black Ball (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Michael (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Behemoth! (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Digger (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Werwulf (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Cry to Heaven
Obsession
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Three (PR: 1) (E)
2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Odyssey (PR: 3) (E)
4. Whalefall (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Godzilla Minus Zero (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Avengers: Doomsday (PR: 6) (E)
7. Disclosure Day (PR: 7) (E)
8. The End of Oak Street (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Sheep Detectives (PR: 10) (+1)
10. The Mandalorian and Grogu (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Wildwood
That works out to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:
14 Nominations
The Odyssey
13 Nominations
The Black Ball
9 Nominations
Digger, Project Hail Mary
7 Nominations
Wild Horse Nine
6 Nominations
Fjord
5 Nominations
The Debut, Dune: Part Three
4 Nominations
Behemoth!
3 Nominations
Michael, Obsession, Werwulf
2 Nominations
All of a Sudden, The Invite,A Place in Hell, Toy Story 5, Whalefall
1 Nomination
14th, American Doctor, Clayface, Coward, Forgotten Island, Godzilla Minus Zero, Ink, Minotaur, Once Upon a Time in Harlem, One in a Million, Power Ballad, Ray Gunn, Rose, Sense and Sensibility, Tangles, To Hold a Mountain, Wildwood
Happy 250th birthday weekend, America! And what better way to celebrate than with fresh Oscar predictions now that we’ve surpassed the midway point of 2026. That means I’m expanding my forecasts from 8 categories (Picture, Director, the four acting derbies, the two screenplays contests) to all 21 races covering feature-length motion pictures.
This is the first glimpse at how many overall nominations I believe the hopefuls will generate. It arrives approximately two months before the fall festival season (Venice, Toronto, Telluride) kicks into gear. That trio of fests will undoubtedly alter the landscape of contenders and pretenders.
When I do my next predictions, Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey will be out. We will have a much better ide whether it deserves the perch atop Best Picture and Director and elsewhere. As soon as reviews drop, look for my individual Oscar Predictions post with the next full update likely arriving on July 19th.
I’ve put Inde Navarrette’s work in Obsession back in lead Actress as opposed to Supporting Actress. The studio could place it in either as we await word on their strategy. As of now, I feel her performance could materialize in both races. I’m also placing all performers from The Black Ball in supporting until that is clarified.
I’m keeping my BP listings at 25 and the seven top line races that I’ve previously covered at 15 possibilities. For the other competitions, I am listing 10 possibilities.
Let’s get to it, shall we?
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Digger (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (-2)
6. Fjord (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Debut (PR: 7) (E)
8. Dune: Part Three (PR: 8) (E)
9. Obsession (PR: 9) (E)
10. Cry to Heaven (PR: 10) (E)
Other Possibilities:
11. All of a Sudden (PR: 14) (+3)
12. Behemoth! (PR: 16) (+4)
13. The Social Reckoning (PR: 12) (-1)
14. A Place in Hell (PR: 11) (-3)
15. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 13) (-2)
16. Fatherland (PR: 15) (-1)
17. The Invite (PR: 17) (E)
18. Artificial (PR: Not Ranked)
19. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 19) (E)
20. Disclosure Day (PR: 20) (E)
21. Michael (PR: 24) (+3)
22. Josephine (PR: 21) (-1)
23. Being Heumann (PR: Not Ranked)
24. Jack of Spades (PR: 22) (-2)
25. Werwulf (PR: 18) (-7)
Dropped Out:
Saturn Return
Club Kid
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo, The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Digger (PR: 3) (E)
4. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (E)
5. Cristian Mungiu, Fjord (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 6) (E)
7. Curry Barker, Obsession (PR: 7) (E)
8. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Tom Ford, Cry to Heaven (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden (PR: 10) (E)
11. Jesse Eisenberg, The Debut (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Pawel Pawlikowski, Fatherland (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Tony Gilroy, Behemoth! (PR: 15) (+2)
14. Chloe Domont, A Place in Hell (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Georgia Oakley, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 14) (-1)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Michelle Williams, A Place in Hell (PR: 1) (E)
2. Julianne Moore, The Debut (PR: 2) (E)
3. Renate Reinsve, Fjord (PR: 3) (E)
4. Inde Navarrette, Obsession (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from Supporting Actress
5. Sandra Hüller, Rose (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Emily Blunt, Disclosure Day (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie (PR: 9) (E)
10. Sandra Hüller, Fatherland (PR: 8) (-2)
11. Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 7) (-4)
12. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Sophie Okonedo, Clarissa (PR: 13) (E)
14. Mason Reeves, Josephine (PR: 12) (-2)
15. Olivia Wilde, The Invite (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Penélope Cruz, Bunker
Zendaya, The Drama
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Tom Cruise, Digger (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)
3. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)
4. Sebastian Stan, Fjord (PR: 4) (E)
5. Matt Damon, The Odyssey (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Pedro Pascal, Behemoth! (PR: 7) (+1)
7. John Turturro, The Only Living Pickpocket in New York (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Jaafar Jackson, Michael (PR: 8) (E)
9. Andrew Garfield, Artificial (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Robert Pattinson, Primetime (PR: 10) (E)
11. Nicholas Hoult, Cry to Heaven (PR: 9) (-2)
12. Andrew Scott, Elsinore (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Rami Malek, The Man I Love (PR: 13) (E)
14. Dominic Sessa, Tony (PR: 11) (-3)
15. Javier Bardem, The Beloved (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Guitarricadelafuente, The Black Ball – moved to Supporting Actor
Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three
Hanns Zischler, Fatherland
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mariana Di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (E)
2. Penélope Cruz, The Black Ball (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Sandra Hüller, Digger (PR: 10) (+7)
4. Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Daisy Edgar-Jones, A Place in Hell (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Penélope Cruz, The Invite (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Tao Okamoto, All of a Sudden (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Esmé Creed-Miles, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 5) (-4)
10. Samantha Morton, The Odyssey (PR: Not Ranked)
11. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 11) (E)
12. Halle Bailey, The Debut (PR: 12) (E)
13. Lola Dueñas, The Black Ball (PR: 13) (E)
14. Scarlett Johansson, Paper Tiger (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Elizabeth Debicki, The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 14) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Inde Navarrette, Obsession (moved to lead Actress)
Gemma Chan, Josephine
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Paul Giamatti, The Debut (PR: 1) (E)
2. John Goodman, Digger (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)
4. Robert Pattinson, The Odyssey (PR: 4) (E)
5. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Riz Ahmed, Digger (PR: 6) (E)
7. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning (PR: 7) (E)
8. Edward Norton, The Invite (PR: 11) (+3)
9. Colman Domingo, Michael (PR: 13) (+4)
10. James Ortiz, Project Hail Mary (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Channing Tatum, Josephine (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Andrew Scott, A Place in Hell (PR: 8) (-4)
13. Mark Ruffalo, Being Heumann (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Guittaricadelafuente, The Black Ball (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from lead Actor
15. Jesse Plemons, Digger (PR: 10) (-5)
Dropped Out:
Milo Quifes, The Black Ball
Miguel Bernardeau, The Black Ball
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (E)
2. Digger (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Debut (PR: 3) (E)
4. Fjord (PR: 4) (E)
5. Obsession (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Behemoth! (PR: 7) (+1)
7. A Place in Hell (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Artificial (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Club Kid (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Only Living Pickpocket in New York (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Jack of Spades (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Primetime (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Fatherland (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Josephine (PR: 11) (-3)
15. The Drama (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Saturn Return
Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Black Ball (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Odyssey (PR: 2) (E)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)
4. All of a Sudden (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Invite (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Cry to Heaven (PR: 7) (+1)
7. The Social Reckoning (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Dune: Part Three (PR: 10) (+2)
9. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 9) (E)
10. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 8) (-2)
11. Being Heumann (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Prima Facie (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Wildwood (PR: 15) (+2)
14. Minotaur (PR: 13) (-1)
15. A Long Winter (PR: 14) (-1)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Black Ball
2. Fjord
3. All of a Sudden
4. Minotuar
5. Coward
Other Possibilities:
6. Fatherland
7. Possible Love
8. Mimesis
9. Rose
10. The Beloved
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wildwood
2. Toy Story 5
3. Ray Gunn
4. Tangles
5. Hoppers
Other Possibilities:
6. In Waves
7. Forgotten Island
8. Shaun the Sheep: The Beast of Mossy Bottom
9. Iron Boy
10. Minions & Monsters
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Once Upon a Time in Harlem
2. Nuisance Bear
3. To Hold a Mountain
4. The History of Concrete
5. When a Witness Recants
Other Possibilities:
6. American Doctor
7. One in a Million
8. Time and Water
9. Rehearsals for a Revolution
10. Everybody to Kenmure Street
Best Casting
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey
2. The Black Ball
3. Wild Horse Nine
4. Digger
5. Michael
Other Possibilities:
6. Fjord
7. The Debut
8. Dune: Part Three
9. Cry to Heaven
10. Behemoth!
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey
2. Project Hail Mary
3. Dune: Part Three
4. The Black Ball
5. Digger
Other Possibilities:
6. Cry to Heaven
7. Fatherland
8. Werwulf
9. Disclosure Day
10. Jack of Spades
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey
2. The Black Ball
3. Sense and Sensibility
4. Cry to Heaven
5. Dune: Part Three
Other Possibilities:
6. Werwulf
7. The Devil Wears Prada 2
8. Jack of Spades
9. Wuthering Heights
10. I Love Boosters
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey
2. The Black Ball
3. Digger
4. Project Hail Mary
5. Wild Horse Nine
Other Possibilities:
6. Dune: Part Three
7. Cry to Heaven
8. Fjord
9. Obsession
10. Behemoth!
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Digger
2. Werwulf
3. The Odyssey
4. Clayface
5. Michael
Other Possibilities:
6. The Black Ball
7. Dune: Part Three
8. Cry to Heaven
9. The Bride!
10. Madden
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey
2. The Black Ball
3. Project Hail Mary
4. Disclosure Day
5. Cry to Heaven
Other Possibilities:
6. Dune: Part Three
7. Digger
8. Wild Horse Nine
9. Wildwood
10. The Social Reckoning
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “I Knew It, I Knew You” from Toy Story 5
2. TBD from The Black Ball
3. TBD from The Debut
4. “La Playa” from The Black Ball
5. “How to Write a Song (Without You)” from Power Ballad
Other Possibilities:
6. “Runway” from The Devil Wears Prada 2
7. “Chains of Love” from Wuthering Heights
8. TBD from Hexed
9. “Save the Day” from Hoppers
10. TBD from The Rivals of Amziah King
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey
2. Project Hail Mary
3. Dune: Part Three
4. The Black Ball
5. Cry to Heaven
Other Possibilities:
6. Digger
7. Werwulf
8. Jack of Spades
9. The Adventures of Cliff Booth
10. Backrooms
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Three
2. The Odyssey
3. Project Hail Mary
4. The Black Ball
5. Michael
Other Possibilities:
6. Disclosure Day
7. Cry to Heaven
8. Digger
9. Werwulf
10. Obsession
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Three
2. Project Hail Mary
3. The Odyssey
4. Godzilla Minus Zero
5. Whalefall
Other Possibilities:
6. Avengers: Doomsday
7. Disclosure Day
8. Wildwood
9. The End of Oak Street
10. The Sheep Detectives
And that works out to my inaugural tally showing these movies generating these numbers of nominations:
14 Nominations
The Black Ball, The Odyssey
10 Nominations
Digger, White Horse Nine
9 Nominations
Project Hail Mary
6 Nominations
Dune: Part Three, Fjord
5 Nominations
The Debut
4 Nominations
Cry to Heaven
3 Nominations
Michael, Obsession
2 Nominations
All of a Sudden, A Place in Hell, Toy Story 5
1 Nomination
Clayface, Coward, Disclosure Day, Godzilla Minus Zero, The History of Concrete, Hoppers, The Invite, Minotaur, Nuisance Bear, Once Upon a Time in Harlem, Power Ballad, Ray Gunn, Rose, Sense and Sensibility, Tangles, To Hold a Mountain, Werwulf, Whalefall, When a Witness Recants. Wildwood
It’s not often that the seventh feature in a franchise is considered to be the strongest (sorry Diamonds Are Forever and Saw: The Final Chapter). However, plenty of critics are claiming that to be the case for Minions & Monsters. Out today and prepared to rule the Fourth of July holiday weekend, this is Illumination Entertainment’s latest entry in their blockbuster animated comedic adventures. Pierre Coffin directs and voices the adorable little yellow creatures once again. Familiar faces providing behind the mic contributions include Trey Parker, Allison Janney, Christoph Waltz, Jesse Eisenberg, Jeff Bridges, Zoey Deutch, and Bobby Moynihan.
This is the third feature with the Minions moniker after the 2015 original and 2022 sequel Minions: The Rise of Gru. The series got started sixteen summers ago with Despicable Me and its three follow-ups. An ode to Hollywood in the 1920s, Monsters stands at 90% on Rotten Tomatoes. That’s the freshest RT score of the septet, topping Despicable Me‘s 80% and well ahead of Minions (55%) and Rise of Gru (70%). The 67 Metacritic lags only behind the first Despicable at 72.
The franchise’s Oscar track record got off to a promising start and then leveled off. In 2010, Despicable Me landed a Best Animated Feature nod. In 2013, the sequel was up in that race and also for the inescapable ditty “Happy” from Pharrell Williams in Original Song. None of those nominations resulted in victories and the four pics since haven’t received any recognition.
Monsters has the potential to change that with its better than expected reviews. A Best Animated Feature slot in the quintet is not out of the question. That said, competition is a factor. I’d put it behind Disney’s Hoppers and Toy Story 5 and upcoming releases like Wildwood, Ray Gunn, and Tangles are anticipated to contend. Time will tell if there’s room for the Minions and it might be an uphill battle. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
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