Amazon MGM is hoping for solid buzz when The Beekeeper debuts on January 12th. It comes from Fury and Suicide Squad maker David Ayer with Jason Statham headlining the revenge tale. Costars include Emmy Raver-Lampman, Josh Hutcherson, Bobby Naderi, Minnie Driver, Phylicia Rashad, and Jeremy Irons.
It may sound like a kiddie animated flick, but the action thriller hopes to get genre fans out over the long MLK frame. With its attention grabbing name, one comp could be Gerard Butler’s Plane from last year. That plainly titled pic made nearly $12 million over the Friday to Monday portion of MLK. Another comp (as far as generic action exercises go) is 2017’s Sleepless with Jamie Foxx. It came in with just under $10 million for the four-day.
I’ll say The Beekeeper makes off with a number barely over $10 million in line with the aforementioned features.
The Beekeeper opening weekend prediction: $10.6 million (Friday to Monday estimate)
Blogger’s Note (05/24): I am revising my Kandahar prediction from $7.9 million to $4.2 million
Gerard Butler hopes to land a solid opening with Kandahar, his latest action thriller that reunites him with Angel Has Fallen director Ric Roman Waugh. Rolling out over the long Memorial Day weekend, costars include Navid Negahban, Ali Fazal, Bahador Foladi, Nina Toussaint-White, and Travis Fimmel.
Looking over the recent filmography, Butler’s efforts have posted divergent results. Den of Thieves made just north of $15 million five years ago. On the flip side, Hunter Killer from 2018 only did $6.6 million.
Plane from this January also premiered over a four-day MLK frame with $11.8 million overall on its way to $32 million domestically. Its simple concept may sell better than Kandahar. I’ll project the Friday to Monday take falls below double digits.
Kandahar opening weekend prediction: $4.2 million (Friday to Monday estimate)
After a solid MLK long weekend at the box office, tech thriller Missing (a stand-alone sequel to 2018’s Searching) hopes to keep the 2023 momentum going in multiplexes. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:
As the only new wide release, I’ve got Missing making the top five. However, it may fall under four holdovers. Avatar: The Way of Water should have no trouble staying in first for the sixth frame. The battle for #2 should be far more interesting. If Missing over performs, it could get there.
I’ve got the earnings of M3GAN, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, and A Man Called Otto separated by under a million. All three did well over the holiday. M3GAN is likely to suffer the biggest drop, but I’ve still got it clinging to #2 with Otto right behind and Boots in fourth.
Here’s how I see it looking for your high five:
1. Avatar: The Way of Water
Predicted Gross: $23.9 million
2. M3GAN
Predicted Gross: $9.5 million
3. A Man Called Otto
Predicted Gross: $9.3 million
4. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
Predicted Gross: $8.7 million
5. Missing
Predicted Gross: $6.8 million
Box Office Results (January 13-16)
Friday the 13th and the rest of the weekend was not unlucky as Avatar: The Way of Water 5-peated wtih $39.8 million. That’s just below my take of $41.2 million as James Cameron’s massive sequel sits at $571 million.
M3GAN held up well in its sophomore frame in second with $21.6 million from Friday to Monday. Ahead of my $18.7 million projection, the campy horror hit is grooving to $60 million thus far.
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish actually increased from the previous weekend in third at $18.9 million (slashing past my $13 million estimate). The animated sequel is now in nine figures with a lively $111 million.
Tom Hanks helped bring in adult moviegoers as A Man Called Otto expanded nationwide with a fourth place gross of $15.4 million (on target with my $15.9 million prediction). With an A Cinemascore grade, look for this to hold up well in the coming weeks. The tally is $21 million and growing.
Gerard Butler’s Plane took off in fifth with a decent $11.8 million (flying higher than my $7.2 million forecast). I suspect a drop at or close to 50% is where this lands next weekend.
Finally, comedic remake House Party did OK considering its lowly 1400 screen count. It was sixth with $4.6 million and that’s more RSVPs than my $3 million guesstimate.
Blogger’s Update (01/11): Considering its meager 1500 screen count and scant buzz, I’m revising my House Party prediction down from $6 million to $3 million. That puts it outside of the top 6.
The 2023 box office got off to an impressive start as studios hope the momentum continues over the four-day MLK weekend. A Man Called Otto expands and we have the Gerard Butler action flick Plane and comedy remake House Party landing. You can peruse my individual prediction posts on the trio here:
Otto, while technically not a newcomer, should perform the best of the newbies. It over performed in limited release this past weekend (more on that below) and could even make a run for #2 depending on the sophomore drop for M3GAN.
Speaking of that demented AI doll, a robust and clever marketing campaign propelled the PG-13 flick to a terrific start. Horror titles often experience hefty declines after their opening, but the holiday could mean a high teens (maybe even low 20s) gross is possible.
Neither M3GAN or Otto will prevent Avatar: The Way of Water from making it five in a row atop the charts. I’m thinking it manages high 30s to low 40s as it builds on the already half billion domestic haul.
As for Plane and House Party, I have both falling under double digits and that would leave them in 5th and 6th behind the fourth outing for Puss in Boots: The Last Wish.
Here’s how I see it playing out and remember that these forecasts are for Friday through Monday:
1. Avatar: The Way of Water
Predicted Gross: $41.2 million
2. M3GAN
Predicted Gross: $18.7 million
3. A Man Called Otto
Predicted Gross: $15.9 million
4. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
Predicted Gross: $13 million
5. Plane
Predicted Gross: $7.2 million
Box Office Results (January 6-8)
As mentioned, it was a healthy kickoff to the new year as Avatar: The Way of Water maintained first position with only a -32 decrease. That’s good for a fourth weekend collection of $45.8 million (beyond my $38.3 million prediction) as it’s amassed $517 million stateside.
M3GAN translated great buzz and sterling reviews to a $30.4 million premiere, dancing past my $24.8 million take. Universal ran a campaign that included memorable trailers and Tik Tok type vids of M3GAN’s crashing Times Square and media interviews. It paid off handsomely.
Universal had the third spot with Puss in Boots: The Last Wish earning $13.5 million, ahead of my $10.2 million projection. The animated sequel is up to $88 million with nine figures on deck.
Maybe grown-ups are ready to return to multiplexes! After plenty of awards bait adult features have disappointed in recent months, A Man Called Otto with Tom Hanks bucked the trend on a still limited 637 screens. The gross was $4.2 million and I incorrectly had it outside my top five.
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever was fifth with $3.5 million (I said $3.4 million) for $445 million total.
Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance with Somebody was sixth with $2.4 million compared to my $2.1 million call. It’s at a ho-hum $19 million.
Blogger’s Update (01/11): Considering its meager 1500 screen count and scant buzz, I’m revising my House Party prediction down from $6 million to $3 million.
Warner Bros hopes audiences RSVP to the House Party reboot when it debuts January 13th. Directed by Calmatic (best known for music videos and commercials), Jacob Latimore and Tosin Cole star as best friends who hatch a plan to hold a blowout bash at the estate of LeBron James. The NBA superstar plays himself as do musical celebs like Kid Cudi, Lil Wayne, and Snoop Dogg.
The 1990 original featured hip hop act Kid N’ Play (who appear here) and spawned two sequels. It was a surprise box office success that also drew critical kudos. This was originally slated for an HBO Max only premiere last summer before the studio shifted emphasis to theatrical output.
Rolling out over the long MLK weekend, Party could manage to over perform. There’s a real question which new release will make the most money with A Man Called Otto and Plane as the other contenders. The trio should all fall behind Avatar: The Way of Water and M3GAN. I’ll project this falls short of double digits earnings by a notable margin.
House Party opening weekend prediction: $3 million (Friday to Monday estimate)
Plane lands in theaters on January 13th as Lionsgate hopes it takes off with action fans over the long MLK weekend. From French filmmaker Jean-François Richet, Gerard Butler stars as a pilot stranded in dangerous territory. Costars include Mike Colter, Yoson An, and Tony Goldwyn. The screenplay was sold as The Plane until the powers that be jettisoned that silly “the”.
Our simplistically titled pic comes with a reported $50 million price tag. That’s not huge, but it will likely struggle to make it back (at least on the domestic front). The mid-January frame has seen its share of medium size budgeted genre fare. Potential comps include 2013’s The Last Stand with its $7.2 million start, Sleepless from 2017 at $9.7 million, and 2018’s Proud Mary with $11.7 million. There’s also The Commuter from five years back with $15.7 million and that’s probably an unreachable ceiling.
We also have Butler comps to ponder. In 2018, Den of Thieves also debuted in January to $15.2 million while Hunter Killer managed just $6.6 million that autumn. 2021’s Copshop was a dud with $2.3 million out of the gate, but it arrived during the COVID slowdown.
Due to the holiday, we’re estimating a four-day take. My hunch is that many moviegoers will standby to view it at home. It could manage double digits though I’ll say it falls below that figure and closer to Killer than Thieves.
Plane opening weekend prediction: $7.2 million (Friday to Monday estimate)
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