Oscar History: 2006

Rocky over Taxi Driver. Ordinary People over Raging Bull. Dances with Wolves over GoodFellas. These are all examples where, in hindsight, pictures directed by Martin Scorsese and the auteur himself probably should have received Oscars wins and not just nominations. In 2002, Scorsese’s Gangs of New York was seen as a Best Picture frontrunner until Chicago stole its thunder. The same held true two years later with The Aviator until Clint Eastwood’s Million Dollar Baby had a late surge and took the prize. By 2006, Scorsese was undoubtedly the most acclaimed director whose films had never won the gold statue. And neither had he.

This would finally come to an end with The Departed, his crime thriller that won Best Picture and this kicks off my 2006 Oscar History.

The other four nominees were Alejandro Gonzales Inarritu’s Babel, Clint Eastwood’s Letters from Iwo Jima, Jonathan Dayton and Valerie Feris’s Little Miss Sunshine, and Stephen Frears’s The Queen. The voters got it right. The Departed was the Best Picture of the year.

As for other pictures I would’ve considered: Alfonso Cuaron’s terrific Children of Men, Guillermo del Toro’s visual feast Pan’s Labyrinth, the Ryan Gosling drama Half Nelson, and Todd Field’s Little Children. And for an outside the box pic – why not Casino Royale, which brought the Bond franchise back in grand fashion and ranks as my 2nd all-time 007 pic after From Russia with Love?

Scorsese, as mentioned before, would win Director over Inarritu, Eastwood, Frears, and Paul Greengrass for United 93. Once again – my list would’ve found room for Cuaron and del Toro.

In the Best Actor race, Forest Whitaker expectedly won for his performance as Idi Amin in The Last King of Scotland. Other nominees: Leonardo DiCaprio for Blood Diamond (many thought he’d get nominated instead for Departed), Ryan Gosling for Half Nelson, Peter O’Toole for Venus (his final nomination), and Will Smith for The Pursuit of Happyness.

Once again, my ballot might’ve listed Daniel Craig for his electric take on James Bond. Others to consider: Clive Owen (Children of Men), Aaron Eckhart (Thank You for Smoking), or Matt Damon’s work in The Departed.

No surprise in the Best Actress race as Helen Mirren’s work as Queen Elizabeth II was honored in The Queen over Penelope Cruz (Volver), Judi Dench (Notes on a Scandal), Meryl Streep (The Devil Wears Prada), and Kate Winslet (Little Children).

That’s a strong Actress category, but I would’ve also had Natalie Portman’s fine performance in V for Vendetta included.

The only true surprise at the 2006 Oscars occurred in the Supporting Actor category where Eddie Murphy’s acclaimed work in Dreamgirls was expected to win. Instead the Academy honored Alan Arkin’s performance in Little Miss Sunshine. Other nominees: Jackie Earle Haley (Little Children), Djimon Hounsou (Blood Diamond), and Mark Wahlberg (The Departed).

Instead of Wahlberg, many believed it would be Jack Nicholson for Departed that received the nomination. I was cool with it – considering Nicholson had already won three times before and this marked Wahlberg’s first nod. Other names I would have possibly included: Steve Carell (Little Miss Sunshine), Stanley Tucci (The Devil Wears Prada), Michael Sheen (The Queen), and for his brilliant comedic work – John C. Reilly in Talladega Nights: The Ballad of Ricky Bobby.

Jennifer Hudson had the distinction of being the first “American Idol” contestant turned Oscar winner with her lauded role in Dreamgirls – winning out over Babel actresses Adriana Barraza and Rinko Kikuchi, young Abigail Breslin from Little Miss Sunshine, and Cate Blanchett in Notes on a Scandal.

My list would have absolutely included Shareeka Epps with her fabulous work in Half Nelson and probably Vera Farmiga in The Departed.

And that’s your 2006 Oscar history! I’ll be back soon with 2007 where another beloved director (s) would take home their first Oscar gold.

Box Office Results: October 25-27

The three-week domination of Alfonso Cuaron’s Gravity is over and it is Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa becoming the only other #1 film in the month of October with an impressive debut. Grandpa earned $32 million in its debut, above my $28.3M prediction. This marks the second highest opening in the Jackass franchise and shows that the series hasn’t even come close to losing any steam.

Gravity fell to the #2 spot with $20.3 million in its fourth frame, slightly below my $21.2M prediction. It currently stands at $199 million and the possibility of reaching $300M domestic is still alive (especially when it starts earning Oscar nominations in the beginning of 2014).

In its third weekend, Paul Greengrass’s Captain Phillips with Tom Hanks was third with $11.8 million, slightly higher than my $10.9M estimate. Phillips stands at $70M and should cross the century mark later on.

Ridley Scott’s The Counselor could not capitalize on its all-star cast that included Michael Fassbender, Brad Pitt, Cameron Diaz, Penelope Cruz, and Javier Bardem. Riding a wave of mostly negative reviews, The Counselor flopped with only $8 million for a fourth place showing, well below my $13.8M prediction. Moviegoers were simply ambivalent about the pic and I have no doubt that the weak reviews certainly didn’t help.

The Carrie remake received zero help from the Halloween time frame and tumbled 63% in its sophomore frame with only $5.9 million – below my $7.6M estimate. This actually put the horror flick in sixth place and allowed the animated Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2 to be #5 with $6.1M.

Outside of the top five, the acclaimed 12 Years a Slave was #8, grossing a robust $2.1 million on only 123 screens. The picture, which is looked at as an Oscar front runner, expands to more screens this Friday.

Be sure to check the blog later today when I’ll have prediction posts up for next weekend’s trio of newbies: Ender’s Game, Last Vegas, and Free Birds.

Box Office Predictions: October 25-27

Unless it earns less than half of what Jackass 3D took in for an opening three years ago, Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa with Johnny Knoxville should knock Gravity off its three week perch of being #1. The weekend’s other newbie is Ridley Scott’s The Counselor with an impressive cast and curiously, a so-so marketing campaign and no reviews at press time. You can read my prediction posts on both newcomers here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/10/20/jackass-presents-bad-grandpa-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/10/20/the-counselor-box-office-prediction/

Gravity lost about 30% of its audience from week two to three and I’d expect roughly the same for this weekend. A low 30s drop seems likely for Captain Phillips in week three. And, finally, Carrie opened to a disappointing third place showing in its debut and could easily fall over 50% in its sophomore frame.

And with that, my prediction for this weekend’s top five:

1. Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa

Predicted Gross: $28.3 million

2. Gravity

Predicted Gross: $21.2 million (representing a drop of 29%)

3. The Counselor

Predicted Gross: $13.8 million

4. Captain Phillips

Predicted Gross: $10.9 million (representing a drop of 33%)

5. Carrie

Predicted Gross: $7.6 million (representing a drop of 52%)

As always, I’ll have updates on the blog’s Facebook page Saturday with final results Sunday!

The Counselor Box Office Prediction

It’s got some incredibly talented and well-respected people involved but will The Counselor break out of the pack and be a hit? Ridley Scott directs this crime drama that boasts an original screenplay from acclaimed novelist Cormac McCarthy. It stars Shame and X-Men First Class star Michael Fassbender and features an all-star supporting cast that includes Brad Pitt, Cameron Diaz, Penelope Cruz, and Javier Bardem.

With that kind of pedigree, The Counselor could have a healthy opening above $20 million. However, I don’t think it’s going to happen. The marketing campaign has only been so-so and the TV spots really don’t make it clear what the film is about. Curiously, we’ve seen no mainstream reviews out five days before its debut so buzz (whether it turns out positive or negative) is nonexistent at this juncture. While Fassbender is certainly well-respected, he’s got no track record of opening a film. This could all spell out a muted opening for The Counselor.

While it’s certainly one of my most anticipated releases of the season, there’s been plenty of recent titles catering to an adult audience (Gravity, Captain Phillips, Prisoners). The possibility of The Counselor getting somewhat lost in the shuffle seems very real. I’m going with a debut in the mid-teens.

The Counselor opening weekend prediction: $13.8 million

For my Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/10/20/jackass-presents-bad-grandpa-box-office-prediction/