2017: The Year of Blumhouse

As 2018 is nearly upon us, today begins an exploration on what and who made a lasting impression on film in 2017. And it does start with a what – in this case, a studio.

Blumhouse Productions, founded by Jason Blum, kicked off in 2009 with found footage hit Paranormal Activity. It was a massive money maker that spawned numerous sequels. From then on, Blumhouse became known for their low-budget horror flicks. This includes the Insidious, Ouija, Purge, and Sinister franchises.

Yet 2017 has marked their banner year. This started immediately in January with M. Night Shyamalan’s comeback pic Split, which debuted to $40 million and earned $138 million overall domestically. Shyamalan will be working with the studio once again with its spin-off/sequel Glass, due in 2019.

The success kept going in February with the release of Jordan Peele’s Get Out. Earning $33 million out of the gate, the acclaimed horror comedy went on to make $175 million. It’s even garnering Oscar buzz, something rare for Blumhouse (a notable exception was 2014’s Whiplash).

In the fall, Happy Death Day premiered to $26 million and $55 million total. Not all of the studio’s offerings landed with audiences this year, including The Belko Experiment, Birth of the Dragon, and Sleight.

Still, there’s little doubt 2017 has offered Blumhouse its most high-profile successes. 2018 will look to replicate the wins with new Purge and Insidious editions and a reboot of the Halloween franchise.

My look back on the winners in 2017 onscreen will continue…

Paranormal Activity: The Ghost Dimension Box Office Prediction

It’s being billed as the final installment in a successful franchise that began in 2009 and this coming Friday marks the sixth entry in the Paranormal Activity series with The Ghost Dimension. Due to a number of factors, it’s probable that this franchise “finale” may go out with a bit of a whimper.

First off, the found footage horror pic furthers along a series of films that began losing its box office potency with its last effort, The Marked Ones. It opened in January of 2014 to $18.3 million on its way to a meager $32M domestic gross. For comparison sake, 2010’s Paranormal Activity 2 made $40 million out of the gate and ended up at $84M stateside. The third edition was the high point with a $52 million debut and $104M overall haul. The fourth Activity is when things started to decline with a $29 million opening and $53M overall take.

Perhaps even more importantly, The Ghost Dimension is rolling out on far less screens than its predecessors due to Paramount’s decision to release the pic only 17 days after its theatrical release. Many cinema chains have balked at that decision and simply chosen against allowing Dimension to play on their screens. It’s slated to be on about 1400 screens (the fifth entry debuted on over 2800).

Due to those factors, I’m predicting the ceiling for Dimension is low double digits and I’ll actually say it falls just short of that mark.

Paranormal Activity: The Ghost Dimension opening weekend prediction: $9.7 million

For my The Last Witch Hunter prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/10/15/the-last-witch-hunter-box-office-prediction/

For my Steve Jobs prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/10/16/steve-jobs-box-office-prediction/

For my Rock the Kasbah prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/10/16/rock-the-kasbah-box-office-prediction/

For my Jem and the Holograms prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/10/16/jem-and-the-holograms-box-office-prediction/

Box Office Results: Jan 3-5

A significant portion of the country was frozen this weekend so it’s fitting that Disney’s Frozen took the top spot at the box office. What’s interesting is that it took six weeks for the animated hit to reach #1 and it did it due to a less than expected debut for Paranormal Activity: The Marked Ones.

Frozen grossed $20.7 million, above my $19 million estimate and it’s earned $297 million since late November. A final tally of $350 million looks reachable.

This meant The Marked Ones, the fifth entry in the Paranormal Activity franchise, had to settle for second with $18.2 million, well below my $26.8M estimate. The series appears to be running out of steam and you have to wonder if some potential moviegoers on the East Coast and in the Midwest were too scared to leave their house to venture out and watch a scary movie.

Falling to third after three weeks at #1 was The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug. It grossed $16.2 million. My prediction? $16.2 million! Gold star! The Tolkien tale has hauled in $229 million in four weeks.

Holding up better than I figured in its second weekend was Martin Scorsese’s The Wolf of Wall Street. It earned $13.4 million, outpacing my $11M prediction. The very R rated pic has made $63 million so far and looks poised to pass the century mark at some point.

Wall Street narrowly beat out American Hustle, which was fifth in its third weekend with $13.2 million, right in line with my $13.1M projection. Gold star #2! Hustle has made an impressive $88 million in three weeks of wide release.

Placing sixth in weekend three was Anchorman 2: The Legend Continues with $11.1 million, a bit below my $12.5M estimate. Ron Burgundy and friends crossed the century mark as its gross stands at $109 million.

And there’s your weekend results! Be sure to check the blog later today for predictions on next weekend’s newcomers – Lone Survivor, The Legend of Hercules, and Her.

Box Office Predictions: January 3-5

The new year at the box office will be rung in with a pretty sturdy horror franchise in the form of Paranormal Activity: The Marked Ones, opening Friday. Unless it greatly doesn’t match expectations, the fifth entry in the series should open atop the charts with the rest being filled by holiday leftovers. You can find my detailed prediction post on The Marked Ones here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/12/29/paranormal-activity-the-marked-ones-box-office-prediction/

Christmas holdovers usually fall in the 30s to low 40s during the first weekend of the next year and I expect we’ll see that occur here. My predictions reflect Disney’s Frozen having one of the lower declines which should allow it to remain at #2 while The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug should end its three-week reign at number one and fall to third. I expect American Hustle and Anchorman 2 to round out the top five. This means Martin Scorsese’s The Wolf of Wall Street should drop out of the top five in its second weekend. While it had a healthy debut (grossing $34 million over five days), audiences were polarized by it, evidenced by its weak C Cinemascore average.

And with that, my predictions for the top six at the box office during weekend #1 of 2014:

1. Paranormal Activity: The Marked Ones

Predicted Gross: $26.8 million

2. Frozen

Predicted Gross: $19 million (representing a drop of 33%)

3. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug

Predicted Gross: $16.2 million (representing a drop of 44%)

4. American Hustle

Predicted Gross: $13.1 million (representing a drop of 33%)

5. Anchorman 2: The Legend Continues

Predicted Gross: $12.5 million (representing a drop of 38%)

6. The Wolf of Wall Street

Predicted Gross: $11 million (representing a drop of 41%)

This would be a great time to remind you of the website www.boxofficeace.com – where you can make your own predictions on the opening weekends of new box office entries. This week would be a fantastic time to start (only takes a sec to set up profile) because the competition begins anew with 2014 rolling in. On the site, you can compete against me and see if you can make box office predictions better than yours truly.

And there you have it! Check by Saturday for early updates on the blog’s Facebook page and Sunday with final results!

Paranormal Activity: The Marked Ones Box Office Prediction

The 2014 box office season kicks off with just one new release, but it’s a high-profile one. Paranormal Activity: The Marked Ones is a spinoff of the popular found footage horror franchise that began in 2009. This is the fifth entry in the series, though it’s being described as a “cousin” and not a direct sequel to what came before (um, OK). To further prove its a spin-off, Paranormal Activity 5 will arrive in theaters on October 24, 2014.

The Marked Ones has a few things going for it: it’s been marketed heavily with the studio especially going after Hispanic audiences in its campaign. It’s a strategy that could certainly pay off. Additionally, there’s been no successful horror pic in nearly three months since Insidious Chapter 2 (the Carrie remake faltered).

However, there’s also the fact that Paranormal Activity 4 was a bit of a disappointment commercially. The second Activity earned $40.6 million in its first weekend and the third hit the high point with $52.5 million out of the gate. #4 took in $29 million in its debut, noticeably less than its predecessors.

There are numerous scenarios I could see with The Marked Ones:

1) It could over perform and open in the range of 2013’s two most successful horror pics – The Conjuring and its $41.9M opening and Insidious Chapter 2 with its $40.3M debut.

2) It could perform right in line with PA4 in the high 20s or low 30s.

3) It could perform right in line with 2013’s Texas Chainsaw 3D, which opened during the same weekend with $21.7 million.

So, of course, I’m not really going with any of those scenarios. I’m predicting The Marked Ones will earn just a bit less than the franchise’s fourth entry, however a higher gross than my prediction seems more feasible than anything lower.

Paranormal Activity: The Marked Ones opening weekend prediction: $26.8 million

Carrie Box Office Prediction

2013 marks the first time in a long time that no horror movie prefaced with Saw or Paranormal Activity sees an October debut. Instead, the only genre flick meant to capitalize on Halloween month is Carrie, which I suppose was the inevitable remake of Brian De Palma’s 1976 scare fest.

Based on Stephen King’s first novel, the ’76 version earned Oscar nominations for Sissy Spacek and Piper Laurie. This time around it’s Kick-Ass star Chloe Grace Moritz and Julianne Moore taking over the lead roles. The remake was originally set to debut in March before it was pushed back.

One big question keeps popping up in my mind here: do audiences really want to see a Carrie remake? The original is a genre classic. Yet unlike the remakes of Friday the 13th or Halloween or A Nightmare on Elm Street, there was never a franchise spawned from it to keep it constantly in the public’s mind. Actually there was a “sequel” in 1999 called The Rage: Carrie 2 that earned a weak $17 million domestically. The fact that no horror flick opens this month could certainly help and, frankly, horror movies often open much bigger than people like me say they will.

However, I don’t sense much excitement for this one. The familiarity with the original and the October release date should guarantee it a $20 million plus opening (if it falls below that, it’ll be considered a major letdown). I don’t think it’ll get much over that number though and it will likely fade quickly.

Carrie opening weekend prediction: $22.4 million