Tag: Our Brand is Crisis

Box Office Predictions: November 6-8

The box office doldrums over the past couple of weeks should thankfully come to an end with November’s arrival and the release of two very high profile releases: 24th James Bond pic Spectre and Charlie Brown and company returning in the 3D animated The Peanuts Movie. You can read my detailed individual prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/10/29/spectre-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/10/29/the-peanuts-movie-box-office-prediction/

As you’ll see, I have Spectre actually debuting slightly bigger than previous entry Skyfall, though it’s worth noting that some prognosticators have it earning a bit less. We shall see.

The Peanuts Movie should also get off to a sterling start and I expect it to play well into the Thanksgiving season.

The remainder of the top five should be filled with holdover table scraps as the two newbies should dominate the frame.

And with that, my top five predictions for the weekend:

  1. Spectre

Predicted Gross: $91.3 million

2. The Peanuts Movie

Predicted Gross: $43.4 million

3. The Martian

Predicted Gross: $7.7 million (representing a drop of 34%)

4. Goosebumps

Predicted Gross: $6 million (representing a drop of 39%)

5. Bridge of Spies

Predicted Gross: $5.8 million (representing a drop of 31%)

Box Office Results (October 30-November 1)

In a very quiet Halloween weekend at the multiplexes, The Martian retained its #1 spot for the fourth weekend in five frames with $11.7 million (in range with my $10.8M projection) for a total of $183M. The Ridley Scott/Matt Damon collaboration is just the third movie of 2015 to manage a first place showing for 4 weeks (joining American Sniper and Furious 7). Its impressive reign will certainly come to an end with 007 and Snoopy coming in.

Staying in second was Goosebumps with $9.8 million (a bit under my $11.2M estimate) for a solid three week tally of $56M.

Bridge of Spies continued to hold up well from week to week with $8.3 million, on target with my $8.9M projection and its total stands at $45M.

Spots four and five belonged to holdovers that I incorrectly had outside the top five. Hotel Transylvania 2 was fourth with $5.8 million ($156M total gross) and Vin Diesel’s The Last Witch Hunter was fifth with $5.1 million for a weak two weekend total of just $19M.

That’s because the three newcomers that opened all posted less than expected results. Bradley Cooper’s Burnt was sixth with just $5 million, below my $8.9M estimate and represents two flops in a row for the actor after this summer’s Aloha.

Sandra Bullock’s critically panned Our Brand Is Crisis gave the actress the worst wide opening of her career with $3.2 million for eighth place, well below my $7.8M prediction.

And, finally, Scouts Guide to the Zombie Apocalypse was dead on arrival for a 12th place showing of $1.8 million, under my $4.2M forecast.

This trio of newcomers represents more October flops in a month full of them, including Steve Jobs, The Last Witch Hunter, Pan, Jem and the Holograms, Rock the Kasbah, Paranormal Activity: The Ghost Dimension, and Crimson Peak.

And that’ll do it for now, folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: October 30-November 1

Three new films open this Halloween weekend and I have every one of them debuting to below $10 million. They are: Bradley Cooper drama Burnt, zombie comedy Scouts Guide to the Zombie Apocalypse, and Sandra Bullock political comedy/drama Our Brand Is Crisis. You can peruse my detailed individual prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/10/22/our-brand-is-crisis-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/10/22/burnt-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/10/22/scouts-guide-to-the-zombie-apocalypse-box-office-prediction/

After the downright embarrassing performances of some of last week’s newbies (much more on that below), I’m not even supremely confident that putting each of these new entries in the $7-9 million range is correct, but we shall see.

**blogger’s update: due to the previously unknown knowledge that Scouts Guide is only opening on 1500 screens, I am downgrading my $8 million estimate to just $4.2 million

As for the top spot, it could continue to be a battle between The Martian and Goosebumps and my estimates reflect a photo finish. Bridge of Spies, in its third weekend, should continue its small declines from week to week.

And with that, we’ll do a top five projections for what should be a sluggish frame before Spectre and The Peanuts Movie roll out the following weekend:

  1. Goosebumps

Predicted Gross: $11.2 million (representing a drop of 28%)

2. The Martian

Predicted Gross: $10.8 million (representing a drop of 31%)

3. Burnt

Predicted Gross: $8.9 million

4. Bridge of Spies

Predicted Gross: $8.1 million (representing a drop of 29%)

5. Our Brand Is Crisis

Predicted Gross: $7.8 million

Box Office Results (October 23-25)

Well, I thought it might be an unpredictable weekend and was it ever! Not too often that my #1 pick comes in seventh and my #4 pick finishes on top, but that’s exactly what happened.

Ridley Scott’s The Martian climbed back into the #1 position with $15.7 million, ahead of my $12.5M projection to bring its fine total to $166M in four weeks.

Last weekend’s champ Goosebumps fell to second with $15.5 million, under my $17.8M estimate for a two week tally of $43M. As mentioned above, I expect this and The Martian to duke it out for box office supremacy once again this weekend.

Bridge of Spies was third in weekend two with $11.3 million, on target with my $11.9M projection for a $32M total.

The first newcomer of five lackluster debuts belonged to Vin Diesel’s The Last Witch Hunter, taking in just $10.8 million compared to my $15.8M prediction. Poor reviews and a blah marketing campaign didn’t help.

Animated holdover Hotel Transylvania 2 was fifth with $8.8 million (I said $7.6M) for a current $148M haul.

In sixth was Paranormal Activity: The Ghost Dimension with $8 million (as opposed to my $9.7M projection). The latest and reportedly final entry in the franchise went out with a whimper, partly due to its low number of screens due to controversy about it debuting on VOD in just two weeks. This caused several theater chains to boycott it. While this opening is certainly soft, it is worth noting that it had the highest per screen average of anything in the top ten.

The big surprise of the weekend was the performance of Danny Boyle’s Steve Jobs, which came with sizzling Oscar buzz. I predicted it would win the weekend with $19.6 million, but it stumbled with a seventh place showing at $7.1 million – obviously way less than expected. Jobs will hope for small declines over subsequent frames as the studio hopes it can possibly play well into awards season.

Guillermo del Toro’s dud Crimson Peak was eighth in its sophomore frame with $5.6 million (I said $6.1M) for a lackluster $22M gross.

Positions nine and ten belonged to holdovers that I didn’t predict would be there – The Intern with $3.7 million and Sicario with $2.8 million. Their respective grosses stand at $64 and $39M.

That’s because two other new flicks had disastrous debuts. Bill Murray’s critically reviled Rock the Kasbah made just $1.4 million compared to my extremely generous $7.8M estimate and the live-action version of 80s cartoon Jem and the Holograms posted a pathetic $1.3 million (I said $4.1M). That’s good for respective 13th and 15th position debuts. Ouch.

And that’s all for now, my friends! Until next time…

Our Brand Is Crisis Box Office Prediction

In her first live action role since her Oscar nominated turn in box office bonanza Gravity, Sandra Bullock headlines the comedic drama and political pic Our Brand Is Crisis, out next weekend. Supporting players include Billy Bob Thornton, Anthony Mackie, Joaquim de Almeida, and Ann Dowd. From the producers of Argo (Grant Heslov and Bullock’s Gravity costar George Clooney) and director David Gordon Green, Crisis was once looked at as a potential awards contender until it screened at the film festival circuit. Its mixed reviews put it at just 40% on Rotten Tomatoes.

Even Bullock’s legitimate star power may not save this from being a mediocre performer. Political movies are a tough sell generally, especially without critics praising it. Only positive buzz could turn this into a hit and it’s just not there. I believe Crisis may struggle to reach double digits and disappear rather quickly.

Our Brand Is Crisis opening weekend prediction: $7.8 million

For my Burnt prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/10/22/burnt-box-office-prediction/

For my Scouts Guide to the Zombie Apocalypse prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/10/22/scouts-guide-to-the-zombie-apocalypse-box-office-prediction/

Oscar Watch: Our Brand Is Crisis

On the last two occasions that Sandra Bullock has headlined a picture with dramatic elements, it’s resulted in a 2009 Oscar win for The Blind Side and a 2013 nomination for Gravity. Therefore, it is no surprise that her upcoming comedic drama Our Brand Is Crisis (out October 30) was garnering talk of a third nomination.

However, its screening at the Toronto Film Festival has mostly muted that chatter. The film, in which Bullock plays a political operative assigned to help a struggling Bolivian president win reelection, was met with mixed word of mouth at the festival. Its Rotten Tomatoes score stands at just 44% currently. While her performance has been received well, readers of this blog may be familiar with the recent theme of Best Actress being very crowded this year. That will likely leave Bullock on the outside looking in. In fact, one of the category front runners is Cate Blanchett for Carol, whose winning role in Blue Jasmine probably kept Bullock from a second gold statue. Costars including Billy Bob Thornton and Ann Dowd also shouldn’t be a factor and the picture itself has virtually zero hope in the big race.

Once again, that important festival in Canada has eliminated another Oscar hopeful from the mix. Look for more Oscar Watch posts following the same theme on the blog.

 

2015 Early Oscar Predictions: Best Actress

This evening on the blog, we continue on with my very early and first predictions for the 2015 Oscars and we’ve come to Best Actress. This category, just like Supporting Actor and Actress, yielded two out of the five nominees when I made my predictions in 2014 with 1 other that was nominated being mentioned as an other possibility.

Astonishingly, the group of actresses that could be honored in 2015 encompasses seven out of the eight past winners of the award. 2007 winner Marion Cotillard is getting buzz for Macbeth, though it’s unclear whether she’ll be campaigned for here or in supporting. 2008 winner Kate Winslet has this fall’s The Dressmaker. 2009 winner Sandra Bullock headlines this October’s Our Brand is Crisis. 2011’s Meryl Streep had Ricki and the Flash last month. It’s always foolish to count her out, but the film’s low box office and mixed critical response could hinder her chances. 2012’s Jennifer Lawrence teams with David O. Russell again for Joy and her two previous films with him both landed her Oscar nods and a win for Silver Linings Playbook. 2013’s Cate Blanchett seems practically guaranteed a nod for Todd Haynes’s Carol, which premiered to raves at Cannes. 2014’s Julianne Moore has Freeheld out soon and it could make her a contender again.

Ultimately, however, my early predictions only have two of these women ending up with nominations. Alicia Vikander (who made a splash already this year with Ex Machina) is bound to get attention for Tom Hooper’s The Danish Girl. Carey Mulligan stars in the womens voting rights drama Suffragette. Saoirse Ronan has already gotten raves on the festival circuit for this autumn’s immigration tale Brooklyn.

More possibilities abound. Veteran comedian/actress Lily Tomlin is being praised for the indie pic Grandma. Emily Blunt stars in the action drama Sicario this September. Angelina Jolie directs and stars in By the Sea. And we can’t count out Charlize Theron in this summer’s Mad Max: Fury Road, even though it’s difficult for the action genre to give us acting nominees. It is worth noting that it happened with Sigourney Weaver nearly 30 years ago with Aliens.

This race looks to be one of the most competitive with a whole lot of huge stars going for the prize. And here’s my first take:

TODD’S EARLY PREDICTIONS – BEST ACTRESS

Cate Blanchett, Carol

Jennifer Lawrence, Joy 

Carey Mulligan, Suffragette

Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn

Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl

 

Other Possibilities:

Emily Blunt, Sicario

Sandra Bullock, Our Brand is Crisis

Marion Cotillard, Macbeth

Angelina Jolie, By the Sea

Julianne Moore, Freeheld

Meryl Streep, Ricki and the Flash

Charlize Theron, Mad Max: Fury Road

Lily Tomlin, Grandma

Kate Winslet, The Dressmaker 

For my previous posts with early predictions on Supporting Actor and Actress, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/09/01/2015-early-oscar-predictions-best-supporting-actor/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/08/30/2015-early-oscar-predictions-best-supporting-actress/

2015 Early Oscar Predictions: Best Supporting Actor

Continuing on with part two of my impossibly early Oscar predictions for 2015, we move to Best Supporting Actor. As I mentioned in the previous Supporting Actress piece, the predictions that I did at this time of the year in 2014 yielded two out of the five eventual nominees. Same goes for Supporting Actor last year, though it’s worth noting that last year in early September – I mentioned all five eventual nominees in the predicted or other possibilities category.

Unlike Supporting Actress, where Rooney Mara seems to be a shoo in for a nod in Carol, there are no obvious nominees in this category as of yet. One thing seems very possible – Quentin Tarantino has a knack for getting his supporting players attention and that may bode well for either Kurt Russell or Samuel L. Jackson. Right now, I’ll give Russell the edge.

David O. Russell is also known for his performers receiving Academy love and his December release Joy could mean nods for either Bradley Cooper or Robert De Niro. We’ll go with Mr. Cooper at press time.

Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu’s The Revenant could garner plenty of attention and Tom Hardy could benefit from it in this category. It doesn’t hurt that he’s had a terrific year coming off the acclaimed Mad Max: Fury Road.

The Cannes Film Festival brought forth raves for the indie drama Youth and Harvey Keitel’s work in it while this fall’s Steven Spielberg drama Bridge of Spies seems to have a major supporting role for character actor Mark Rylance.

Danny Boyle’s Steve Jobs may mean nods for either Jeff Daniels or Seth Rogen. The Brian Wilson biopic Love and Mercy has both John Cusack and Paul Dano (depending on who the studio puts in which category). The Catholic Church sex scandal drama Spotlight has Michael Keaton and Mark Ruffalo. Past winner Benicio del Toro is said to be a standout in this September’s Sicario. And on and on.

In other words, lots of possibilities here and we shall see how it shakes out. For now:

TODD’S FIRST PREDICTIONS – BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Bradley Cooper, Joy

Tom Hardy, The Revenant

Harvey Keitel, Youth

Kurt Russell, The Hateful Eight

Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies

Other Possibilities:

Steve Carell, Freeheld

John Cusack, Love and Mercy

Jeff Daniels, Steve Jobs

Paul Dano, Love and Mercy

Benicio del Toro, Sicario

Robert De Niro, Joy

Samuel L. Jackson, The Hateful Eight

Michael Keaton, Spotlight

Jude Law, Genius

Ewan McGregor, Miles Ahead

Seth Rogen, Steve Jobs

Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight

Billy Bob Thornton, Our Brand is Crisis

And that’ll do it for now! Best Actress coming up tomorrow…

You can peruse my Supporting Actress early picks here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/08/30/2015-early-oscar-predictions-best-supporting-actress/

 

2015 Early Oscar Predictions: Best Supporting Actress

It’s hard to believe but we are two thirds of the way through the calendar year and that means my first round of incredibly early Oscar predictions are making their way to the blog! Some caveats: it’s early. Real early. Truth be told, most of the main contenders in all the major categories will be rolling out in the fall. Many will be screening at the upcoming film fests like Toronto and New York, among others. As always, those festivals will help the picture become clearer over the next couple of months. Usually by Thanksgiving or early December, we’ve got a pretty good idea on how things are looking.

That said, I started my predictions for 2014 at the same time last year. In the Supporting Actress race, which I’m covering today, my impossibly early predictions yielded two of the five eventual nominees, Laura Dern for Wild and winner Patricia Arquette in Boyhood. It’s also worth noting that I predicted Felicity Jones for The Theory of Everything, who was nominated in the Lead Actress category. Let’s talk about how things look right now:

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Already we seem to have one performer who appears to be a shoo in for a nod: Rooney Mara for Todd Haynes’s 1950s set lesbian romance Carol, which premiered to raves at the Cannes Film Festival earlier this summer. It would be very shocking not to see Mara included, unless she’s campaigned for in the Actress race. That seems unlikely because the studio should be putting her costar Cate Blanchett in that race.

After that – much uncertainty. The Irish immigration drama Brooklyn hit the festival circuit to a rapturous response and that could bode well for Julie Walters. Director Quentin Tarantino knows how to get his actors nominated which could mean a nom for The Hateful Eight’s Jennifer Jason Leigh. Director David O. Russell is exceptional at seeing his performers gets nods and his December release Joy could see kudos for either Virginia Madsen or Diane Ladd (I’m leaving both off, for now).

Elizabeth Olsen has had some critically applauded roles and her performance as Hank Williams’ wife in the biopic I Saw the Light could garner attention. So could Kate Winslet in the upcoming Steve Jobs biopic.

The rest of the large field is filled with familiar names and some not. Remember the name Emayatzy Corinealdi for her work in the Don Cheadle/Miles Davis biopic Miles Ahead. And we have previous winners like Blanchett, Jane Fonda, Julia Roberts, Meryl Streep, Nicole Kidman and Rachel Weisz in the mix.

TODD’S FIRST PREDICTIONS – BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight

Rooney Mara, Carol

Elizabeth Olsen, I Saw the Light

Julie Walters, Brooklyn

Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs

 

Other Possibilities:

Elizabeth Banks, Love and Mercy

Cate Blanchett, Truth

Helena Bonham Carter,  Suffragette

Jessica Chastain, The Martian

Emayatzy Corinealdi, Miles Ahead

Marion Cotillard, Macbeth

Ann Dowd, Our Brand is Crisis

Jane Fonda, Youth

Nicole Kidman, Genius

Diane Ladd, Joy

Melanie Laurent, By the Sea

Laura Linney, Genius

Virginia Madsen, Joy

Helen Mirren, Trumbo

Ellen Page, Freeheld

Julia Roberts, The Secret in their Eyes

Amy Ryan, Bridge of Spies

Meryl Streep, Suffragette

Rachel Weisz, Youth

And there’s part one of my early Oscar picks. Supporting Actor coming your way tomorrow…