Tag: oscars

Oscar Watch: Suburbicon

George Clooney’s directorial career has one Oscar bright spot in the form of 2005’s Good Night, and Good Luck which received six nominations, including Picture and Director. His other work behind the camera (2002’s Confessions of a Dangerous Mind, 2008’s Leatherheads, 2011’s The Ides of March, 2014’s The Monuments Men) haven’t fared as well on the awards circuit. With its Venice Film Festival, Clooney’s latest Suburbicon is looking like it will belong in the latter category.

The 1950s set crime comedy was penned by acclaimed directors Joel and Ethan Coen and early critical reaction indicates it has the feel of one of their efforts. However, reviews thus far are mixed with a current 60% Rotten Tomatoes score. Matt Damon, Julianne Moore, and Oscar Isaac are among the cast. Mr. Damon could have more of a good night and good luck come Oscar time with Downsizing, but I don’t look for Suburbicon to receive much attention come nominations time (perhaps some Golden Globe in the Comedy categories could surface).

My Oscar Watch posts will continue…

Oscar Watch: Darkest Hour

My recent Oscar Watch posts have largely focused on the Venice Film Festival (and there’s more posts from that fest coming your way shortly), but the Telluride Film Festival is also underway and it premiered Joe Wright’s eagerly awaited Darkest Hour. 

The film casts Gary Oldman as British Prime Minister Winston Churchill during WWII and the actor has been considered a Best Actor front runner for some time already. The Telluride screening all but confirms that notion with Oldman drawing raves for his performance. Crazily enough, with the lead’s three decade long sterling career, he’s only managed one Academy nod for 2011’s Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy. It’s safe to say that this will land him his second as Variety deemed him the instant favorite.

While Oldman’s nomination has always seemed likely, initial reaction also puts Darkest in line for potential Picture, Director, and Original Screenplay (Anthony McCarten) nods and some down the line technical categories. Interestingly, it’s Ben Mendelsohn’s supporting work that’s garnered notice and not Kristin Scott Thomas, who now seems a bit of a long shot for Supporting Actress.

Bottom line: Darkest reaction sheds light on several potential nominations, but Oldman’s seems assured.

My Oscar Watch posts will continue…

 

Todd’s Early 2017 Oscar Predictions: Best Actor

We have now arrived at Best Actor for my earliest 2017 Oscar predictions! At first glance, this appears to be potentially loaded with heavy hitters. This includes Gary Oldman going for his first Oscar as Winston Churchill in Darkest Hour, Daniel Day-Lewis going for his fourth (!) in Phantom Thread, and Tom Hanks going for #3 in The Papers. We also have Hugh Jackman in what could be a show stopping role as P.T. Barnum in The Greatest Showman and Joaquin Phoenix in his already screened and acclaimed performance for You Were Never Really Here. 

This is addition to several other very recognizable names listed as possibilities. Bottom line: Best Actor looks packed in 2017 and here’s my initial projections:

TODD’S EARLY OSCAR PREDICTIONS – BEST ACTOR

Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread

Tom Hanks, The Papers

Hugh Jackman, The Greatest Showman

Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour

Joaquin Phoenix, You Were Never Really Here

Other Possibilities:

Chadwick Boseman, Marshall

Steve Carell, Battle of the Sexes

Timothee Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name

Matt Damon, Downsizing

Andrew Garfield, Breathe

Jake Gyllenhaal, Stronger

Domhnall Gleeson, Goodbye Christopher Robin

Liam Neeson, Mark Felt: The Man Who Brought Down the White House

Robert Redford, Our Souls at Night

Denzel Washington, Roman Israel Esq.

Best Director is next, folks!

Todd’s Early 2017 Oscar Predictions: Best Actress

In my earliest of Oscar predictions now that autumn and festival season is upon us, we’ve arrived at Best Actress! If you missed my previous posts on the Supporting categories, you may peruse them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/08/30/todds-early-2017-oscar-predictions-best-supporting-actress/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/08/30/todds-early-2017-oscar-predictions-best-supporting-actor/

Yesterday’s Venice screening of The Shape of Water significantly increased the possibility that Sally Hawkins could find herself in the mix. Another piece of the puzzle should come into focus this weekend as Frances McDormand’s work in Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri is screened for festival goers. Same goes for Emma Stone in Battle of the Sexes, Judi Dench in Victoria and Abdul and Jennifer Lawrence in mother!

Obviously, there’s much uncertainty at this juncture but not for long and here’s my first pass at Best Actress:

TODD’S FIRST PREDICTIONS – BEST ACTRESS

Annette Bening, Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool

Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game

Judi Dench, Victoria and Abdul

Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water

Meryl Streep, The Papers

Other Possibilities:

Jane Fonda, Our Souls at Night 

Isabelle Huppert, Happy End

Diane Kruger, In the Fade

Jennifer Lawrence, mother!

Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outisde Ebbing, Missouri

Carey Mulligan, Mudbound

Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird

Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes

Debra Winger, The Lovers

Kate Winslet, Wonder Wheel

Best Actor will be up next!

Oscar Watch: The Shape of Water

On day 2, the Venice Film Festival continues to showcase potential Oscar bait and today’s story belongs to Guillermo del Toro’s The Shape of Water. Deemed a dark fantasy with lots of heart, Water has debuted to rave reviews with critics calling it the filmmaker’s best work since 2006’s Pan’s Labyrinth. That film received nominations for Best Foreign Language Film and Original Screenplay.

The Fox Searchlight production isn’t out stateside until December 8, but the overseas buzz already makes it a contender in several Academy races. The pic’s cast includes familiar faces, such as Michael Shannon, Richard Jenkins, Doug Jones, Michael Stuhlbarg, and Octavia Spencer. Yet it’s lead Sally Hawkins, whose performance as a mute janitor who befriends a strange creature, who is being singled out. She stands a fine shot at recognition in lead Actress and it would mark her second nomination (the first was for Supporting Actress for 2013’s Blue Jasmine).

If Water manages to keep momentum generated from Venice through the year’s end, it’s entirely feasible that Picture, Director, and Original Screenplay (del Toro and Vanessa Taylor) could be in the mix as well.

My Oscar Watch posts will continue…

 

Todd’s Early 2017 Oscar Predictions: Best Supporting Actor

Bloggers Note (08/31) – UPDATE: It has been confirmed that Steve Carell will be campaigned for in Lead Actor not Supporting. Therefore, he comes out and James Franco goes in.

Continuing on with my earliest 2017 Oscar predictions, we move to Best Supporting Actor. If you missed my post on Supporting Actress, you can find it here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/08/30/todds-early-2017-oscar-predictions-best-supporting-actress/

In 2014, 2015, and 2016 – my initial projections yielded two of the eventual five nominees. For the last two years, the first predictions have named the winner (Mark Rylance for Bridge of Spies, Mahershala Ali in Moonlight).

Let’s begin with some confusion – there are three potential nominees where it’s uncertain as to whether they’ll be campaigned for in Lead Actor or this race. They are: Steve Carell (Battle of the Sexes), Willem Dafoe (The Florida Project), and James Franco (The Disaster Artist). The Best Actor race already looks incredibly competitive this year, so I’m currently operating on the assumption that all 3 will find themselves campaigned for here.

There are no sure things yet in this category, but festival season could easily change that. Here is my first blush take:

TODD’S FIRST PREDICTIONS – BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project

Laurence Fishburne, Last Flag Flying

James Franco, The Disaster Artist

Armie Hammer, Call Me by Your Name

Mark Rylance, Dunkirk

Other Possibilities:

Idris Elba, Molly’s Game

Richard Graham, Phantom Thread

Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Ed Harris, mother!

Garrett Hedlund, Mudbound

Ben Mendelsohn, Darkest Hour

Jason Mitchell, Mudbound

Michael Stuhlbarg, The Papers

Christoph Waltz, Downsizing

Predictions for the Lead Acting Races are on the way…

Todd’s Early 2017 Oscar Predictions: Best Supporting Actress

And so it begins!

Fall season is upon us and that means my Oscar prediction posts will be ramping up on this here blog. I will be following the same formula as I did last year. Six “early” prediction posts on Picture, Director, and the four acting races. It’s my goal to have all of these posted by Monday, if not earlier.

From there, every Thursday I’ll bring you my weekly prediction posts all the way to the nominations next year. In both these initial posts covering the six categories and for the weekly posts starting next week, I’ll list my predicted nominees for Best Picture as well as 25 pictures total as possibilities. For the other races (the two Screenplay categories will be included with the weekly posts), I’ll list my five predicted nominees along with ten other ranked possibilities. From week to week, you’ll be able to track the up and down movement of my predictions, who and what have dropped out, and who and what have joined the mix.

We begin today with Best Supporting Actress and just like any category at this juncture (just as festival season is beginning), everything is up in the air. I would say Hong Chau’s work in Downsizing is pretty darn close to a sure thing with Melissa Leo’s role in Novitiate close as well (as long as her campaign doesn’t switch to Lead Actress).

As far as history with my previous year’s earliest predictions in Supporting Actress, 2014 and 2016 yielded two of the eventual five nominees while 2015 gave us three.

Let’s get to it, shall we?

TODD’S FIRST PREDICTIONS – BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Mary J. Blige, Mudbound

Hong Chau, Downsizing

Melissa Leo, Novitiate

Kristin Scott Thomas, Darkest Hour

Michelle Williams, The Greatest Showman

Other Possibilities:

Kirsten Dunst, The Beguiled

Carrie Fisher, Star Wars: The Last Jedi

Samantha Isler, Molly’s Game

Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread

Tatiana Maslany, Stronger

Julianne Moore, Suburbicon

Michelle Pfeiffer, mother!

Margot Robbie, Goodbye Christopher Robin

Millicent Simmonds, Wonderstruck

Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water

And there you have it! I’ll have Supporting Actor up shortly…

Oscar Watch: Downsizing

Blogger’s Update (09/19/17) – What Venice giveth, Toronto and Telluride taketh away. Since my original writing of this post on 08/30, Oscar prospects for Downsizing have dimmed due to mixed reaction from the aforementioned festivals.

A major piece of the 2017 Oscar puzzle has come into focus today with the debut of Alexander Payne’s Downsizing at the Venice Film Festival. This picture has been circled on the calendar of Academy Awards prognosticators since it was announced. Why? For starters, this is Payne’s seventh directorial feature and his previous five efforts have all received Oscar attention. For 1999’s Election, Payne received a nod for Adapted Screenplay. 2002’s About Schmidt landed two nominations in the acting races for Jack Nicholson and Kathy Bates. 2004’s Sideways nabbed five nominations, including Picture, Director, and a win for Payne and writing partner Jim Taylor for Adapted Screenplay. 2011’s The Descendants also received five nominations, with Payne winning once again for Adapted Screenplay. His last film, 2013’s Nebraska, garnered six nominations including Picture, Director, and Original Screenplay. His last five movies have resulted in a total of seven acting nods.

So yeah… pretty much anything Payne puts out is an automatic Oscar contender. That does not look to end with Downsizing, his science fiction comedic drama that has drawn rave reviews out of the gate. It’s not out until December 22, but trade reviews are up and they’re glowing with praise. The Hollywood Reporter: “Big and beautiful” and arguably his best film. Variety: “playful, spectacular, mischievous, and audacious”. Interestingly, both reviews reference it as like as a live-action Pixar feature.

Downsizing has a highly recognizable cast that includes Matt Damon, Kristin Wiig, Christoph Waltz, Alec Baldwin, Neil Patrick Harris, Laura Dern, and Jason Sudeikis. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Damon in the mix for Best Actor, based on early word. Yet it’s a name you probably haven’t heard that you’ll soon become familiar with. Playing a Vietnamese refugee, Hong Chau has been singled out for her work and I’d venture to say she will be receiving a Supporting Actress nomination here.

Before today, Dunkirk was the only picture that I feel confident saying will receive a Best Picture nomination. Downsizing is now the second and it will probably land Payne directing and original screenplay (along with Jim Taylor) recognition. Beyond that – Cinematography, Editing, Production Design, and even Visual Effects categories are all feasible.

Bottom line: Downsizing just announced itself as a potential force this awards season. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…

Oscar Watch: The Disaster Artist

Back in March, The Disaster Artist premiered at the South by Southwest festival and it will soon screen at the Toronto Film Festival. The pic comes from James Franco, who directs, produces, and stars. Disaster is the story of the making of The Room, a low budget 2003 experience that is considered among the worst movies of all time. Mr. Franco plays its director and lead actor Tommy Wiseau. The supporting cast includes Seth Rogen, Josh Hutcherson, Zac Efron, Sharon Stone, Melanie Griffith, and Jacki Weaver.

Very positive reviews followed its Southwest bow and it currently stands at 92% on Rotten Tomatoes. Critics have indicated this is Franco’s finest performance since 2010’s 127 Hours, in which he received an Oscar nomination. Could he do so here? I would venture to say that a Franco nod for Best Actor is probably the picture’s best chance at recognition. While Disaster has been compared to 1994’s Tim Burton pic Ed Wood (high praise), it’s worth noting that Wood wasn’t nominated for Best Picture.

The Disaster Artist opens wide in December and my Oscar Watch posts will continue…

Oscar Watch: The Florida Project

The first trailer was released today for The Florida Project, a coming of age drama that debuted at Cannes earlier this summer. It is director Sean Baker’s follow-up to his critically acclaimed 2015 feature Tangerine and early word for this Project is quite glowing as well. The pic was snatched up by A24 for distribution rights and it opens in limited release on October 6th.

Rotten Tomatoes currently has Florida at 100% and it stands a good chance at some 2017 Oscar recognition. A24 has proven itself to be a player over the last couple of cycles in the awards derby by distributing such titles as Ex Machina, Room, The Lobster, 20th Century Women, and most notably – last year’s Best Picture winner Moonlight. 

Early buzz here suggests a nomination may well be in store for Willem Dafoe. If so, it would mark his third nomination after 1986’s Platoon and 2000’s Shadow of the Vampire. Reviews suggest this is one of his finest performances. It’s not totally clear if he’ll be campaigned for in Lead Actor or Supporting, but the smart money is on the latter. I would also say it’s worth keeping an eye on the Original Screenplay category where Baker and co-writer Chris Bergoch could find themselves in the mix.

As for Best Picture, A24 would need one heck of a push to make that happen, but they’ve proven themselves before. For that reason, this Project is one to keep an eye on when it comes to nominations.