My Year Of posts focused on six performers who gave audiences a memorable 2022 culminates with what I’ll consider the Utility Player prize. This goes to a character actor who improves the viewing experience of the projects they’re in. We could coin it the Patricia Clarkson or J.T. Walsh Award.
This year, I’m giving it to Hong Chau. Five years ago, she received Golden Globe and Critics Choice nominations for her supporting part in Alexander Payne’s Downsizing. An Oscar nod was expected to follow, but didn’t materialize.
In the half decade since, she’s been seen more in small screen material. That changed in ’22 with two critically heralded roles in Darren Aronofsky’s The Whale and Mark Mylod’s The Menu. For the former, her Liz (caretaker and confidant to Brendan Fraser’s lead) could mark Chau’s first Academy recognition. For the latter, her Elsa (second in command to the sadistic chef played by Ralph Fiennes) was a highlight in a terrific cast.
At the Cannes Film Festival in May, another Chau performance received acclaim. Kelly Reichardt’s Showing Up features her with Michelle Williams in a dramedy that sports a 95% Rotten Tomatoes score. It’ll be released stateside in 2023. So will Wes Anderson’s Asteroid City where she’ll be part of his typical impressive ensemble that includes Tom Hanks, Tilda Swinton, Margot Robbie, Edward Norton, and many more. Chau is also cast in Yorgos Lanthimos’s And with Emma Stone, Jesse Plemons, Willem Dafoe, and Margaret Qualley.
Among all those well-known filmmakers and stars, Chau stands out and earns a final slot in the Year Of write-ups.
Scott Cooper’s The Pale Blue Eye opens in select theaters this weekend prior to its January 6th Netflix bow. Set in 1830, the mystery casts Christian Bale as a detective working alongside Harry Melling’s Edgar Allan Poe. The supporting cast includes Gillian Anderson, Lucy Boynton, Charlotte Gainsbourg, Toby Jones, Timothy Spall, and Robert Duvall.
Marking the third collaboration between Cooper and Bale after Out of the Furnace and Hostiles, this is being greeted with decidedly mixed notices. The Rotten Tomatoes score is currently 57% with some writers praising the production value while criticizing the gloomy vibe.
Netflix clearly had no real plans to mount an awards campaign for this. They probably could’ve tried for Production and/or Costume Design. It showed up nowhere in the Globe or Critics Choice mentions. The Academy is highly likely to follow suit. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
On the eve of its premiere, the embargo for Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance with Somebody finally lifted. For those not familiar, waiting until December 21st for critics to weigh in is not a good sign for awards possibilities. The biopic comes from Kasi Lemmons, who last directed Cynthia Erivo to a Best Actress nod for 2019’s Harriet. Then there’s the screenwriter Anthony McCarten. He’s a bit of an awards whisperer. His screenplays for 2014’s The Theory of Everything, 2017’s Darkest Hour, and 2018’s Bohemian Rhapsody resulted in Best Actor victories for (respectively) Eddie Redmayne, Gary Oldman, and Rami Malek.
That’s why I was a tad surprised that Somebody was MIA at film festivals and that there were no early reviews to generate buzz. Now it makes more sense. The Rotten Tomatoes score is a mere 41%. That said, some write-ups are singing the praises of Naomi Ackie as the iconic and troubled legend. I don’t think it would’ve been impossible for Ackie to make the five in Best Actress. At this juncture, only Cate Blanchett (Tár) and Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once) have guaranteed spots in my opinion. Michelle Williams in The Fabelmans and Danielle Deadwyler for Till are probably in as well. The fifth slot could be Margot Robbie (Babylon), Viola Davis (The Woman King), Olivia Colman (Empire of Light), or a surprise.
It is probably too late for Ackie to be a factor. The Critics Choice and Globes skipped her and the Academy is unlikely to make her queen of the night. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Shortlists covering seven of the feature film races at the Oscars were unveiled this afternoon. We now know the 15 pictures that will contend for Best Original Score, Original Song, International Feature Film, and Documentary Feature. Additionally, we have our 10 finalists for Makeup and Hairstyling, Sound, and Visual Effects.
I’ll go over each competition below, but I went 62 for 90 in my overall picks. It was a good day for Black Panther: Wakanda Forever and All Quiet on the Western Front. They got in everywhere they reasonably could have.
With The Batman and Everything Everywhere All at Once, it was a mixed announcement as both made the cut for some and not others where they were expected to. The documentary Good Night Oppy had perhaps the worst day. It was widely anticipated to get in for Documentary and (to a lesser degree) Visual Effects and made neither.
Let’s break it down! **Selections that I correctly called are in bold
Best Original Score
Nominees:
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
Babylon
The Banshees of Inisherin
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Devotion
Don’t Worry Darling
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Nope
She Said
The Woman King
Women Talking
HOW I DID: 9/15
The most notable omissions here are Empire of Light and The Batman while Devotion in particular wasn’t expected to be included. I also incorrectly named Bardo, Living, RRR, and White Noise. My top 5 from my projections 3 days ago (Women Talking, Babylon, The Fabelmans, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, The Banshees of Inisherin) remain.
Best Original Song
“Applause” from Tell It Like a Woman
“Carolina” from Where the Crawdads Sing
“Ciao Papa” from Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
“Dust and Ash” from The Voice of Dust and Ash
“Good Afternoon” from Spirited
“Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick
“Lift Me Up” from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
“My Mind & Me” from Selena Gomez: My Mind & Me
“Naatu” from RRR
“New Body Rhumba” from White Noise
“Nothing Is Lost (You Give Me Strength)” from Avatar: The Way of Water
“Stand Up” from Till
“This Is a Life” from Everything Everywhere All at Once
“Til You’re Home” from A Man Called Otto
“Time” from Amsterdam
HOW I DID: 10/15
As expected, there’s some heavy hitters in the mix with Lady Gaga, Rihanna, Taylor Swift, The Weeknd, and Selena Gomez (who I didn’t predict). The highest profile omission is Billie Eilish for “Nobody Like U” in Turning Red. My other misses were “Keep Rising” from The Woman King, “On My Way (Marry Me)” from Marry Me (a miss for Jennifer Lopez), and “Ready As I’ll Ever Be” from The Return of Tanya Tucker – Featuring Brandi Carlile.
Best International Feature Film
All Quiet on the Western Front (Germany)
Argentina, 1985 (Argentina)
Bardo (Mexico)
The Blue Caftan (Morocco)
Cairo Conspiracy (Sweden)
Close (Belgium)
Corsage (Austria)
Decision to Leave (South Korea)
EO (Poland)
Holy Spider (Denmark)
Joyland (Pakistan)
Last Film Show (India)
The Quiet Girl (Ireland)
Return to Seoul (Cambodia)
Saint Omer (France)
HOW I DID: 13/15
My best showing as I incorrectly had Spain’s Alcarras and Mars One from Brazil. India saved a little face with Last Film Show getting in. They didn’t select RRR and it could have won. There are really no major surprises here.
Best Documentary Feature
All That Breathes
All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
Bad Axe
Children of the Mist
Descendant
Fire of Love
Hallelujah: Leonardo Cohen, a Journey, a Song
Hidden Letters
A House Made of Splinters
The Janes
Last Flight Home
Moonage Daydream
Navalny
Retrograde
The Territory
HOW I DID: 10/15
I took a swing by not including The Territory and it got in. As forthe aforementioned Good Night Oppy and Sr., they were anticipated to be here and are not. My other whiffs were Gabby Giffords Won’t Back Down, Riotsville, U.S.A., and Wildcat. My high five from December 18th – All That Breathes, Navalny, Fire of Love, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, Descendant – remain.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
All Quiet on the Western Front
Amsterdam
Babylon
The Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Blonde
Crimes of the Future
Elvis
Emancipation
The Whale
HOW I DID: 7/10
Here’s a race where Everything Everywhere isn’t to be found. I also went with Three Thousand Years of Longing and The Woman King. Once again my top five from the weekend is in. The Crimes of the Future nod is truly unexpected.
Best Sound
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
Babylon
The Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Moonage Daydream
Top Gun: Maverick
HOW I DID: 7/10
Once again my quintet of picks from 3 days ago are safe. Nope is a significant omission as is RRR (Thirteen Lives is my other miss). The unexpected addition of the Bowie doc Moonage Daydream is being praised.
Best Visual Effects
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness
Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore
Jurassic World: Dominion
Nope
ThirteenLives
Top Gun: Maverick
HOW I DID: 6/10
Here’s where my predicted five will undoubtedly be altered when I make my update. I had Everything Everywhere and RRR at 3rd and 4th, respectively. They are gone. I also incorrectly called Good Night Oppy and Thor: Love and Thunder. This means Avatar (which should win), Maverick, and Multiverse are the trio remaining that I projected. In my view, this bodes well for Panther getting in. The fifth slot is far trickier to estimate at the moment.
And that does it for now, folks! I’ll have updated predictions in all races up before Christmas!
The Academy, as they do every year, whittles down a few of their races to a set 10-15 contenders before announcing the final five on January 24th. This occurs tomorrow. For Original Score and Song and International Feature Film and Documentary Feature, the list goes down to 15. For Makeup and Hairstyling, Sound, and Visual Effects – it drops to 10. There are surprises every year. In 2021, Titane was shockingly left out of International Feature Film.
I’m giving you my predicted shortlists for all 7 feature film derbies with some commentary. I’ll have a recap up tomorrow!
Best Original Score
Predicted Shortlist:
Avatar: The Way of Water
Babylon
The Banshees of Inisherin
Bardo
The Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Empire of Light
The Fabelmans
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Living
Nope
RRR
White Noise
The Woman King
Women Talking
***She Said was just on the outside looking in and I wouldn’t discount A Man Called Otto either.
Best Original Song
Predicted Shortlist:
“Applause” from Tell It Like a Woman
“Carolina” from Where the Crawdads Sing
“Ciao Papa” from Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
“Good Tonight” from The Bad Guys
“Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick
“Keep Rising” from The Woman King
“Lift Me Up” from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
“Naatu Naatu” from RRR
“New Body Rhumba” from White Noise
“Nobody Like U” from Turning Red
“Nothing Is Lost (You Give Me Strength)” from Avatar: The Way of Water
“On My Way (Marry Me)” from Marry Me
“Ready As I’ll Ever Be” from The Return of Tanya Tucker – Featuring Brandi Carlile
“Stand Up” from Till
“This Is a Life” from Everything Everywhere All at Once
***Leaving “Love Is Not Love” from Bros off was tough and don’t discount a tune (probably “Carried Away”) from Lyle Lyle Crocodile.
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Shortlist:
Alcarras (Spain)
All Quiet on the Western Front (Germany)
Argentina, 1985 (Argentina)
Bardo (Mexico)
Cairo Conspiracy (Sweden)
Close (Belgium)
Corsage (Austria)
Decision to Leave (South Korea)
EO (Poland)
Holy Spider (Denmark)
Joyland (Pakistan)
Mars One (Netherlands)
The Quiet Girl (Ireland)
Return to Seoul (Cambodia)
Saint Omer (France)
***No love for Japan’s Plan 75 or Ukraine’s Klondike (which would be a surprise omission), but both could easily surface. I also don’t have India’s Last Film Show making the cut. If it doesn’t, that would confirm that nation’s error in not putting up RRR.
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Shortlist:
All That Breathes
All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
Bad Axe
Descendant
Fire of Love
Gabby Giffords Won’t Back Down
Good Night Oppy
The Janes
Last Flight Home
Moonage Daydream
Navalny
Retrograde
Riotsville U.S.A.
Sr.
Wildcat
***My major snub here is The Territory. I also left Sidney (about the legendary Poitier) out which is certainly risky.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Shortist:
Amsterdam
Babylon
The Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Blonde
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Three Thousand Years of Longing
The Whale
The Woman King
***I so wanted to put X here, but didn’t pull the trigger. All Quiet on the Western Front, Emancipation, and The Fabelmans are all viable too.
Best Sound
Predicted Shortlist:
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
Babylon
The Batman
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Nope
RRR
Thirteen Lives
Top Gun: Maverick
***Leaving out Black Panther: Wakanda Forever is risky and this is another category where The Fabelmans is possible. Same goes for The Woman King.
Best Visuasl Effects
Predicted Shortlist:
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Good Night Oppy
Nope
RRR
Thor: Love and Thunder
Top Gun: Maverick
***Look out for All Quiet on the Western Front and maybe Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio.
The psychological drama Alice, Darling takes Anna Kendrick out of Pitch Perfect mode and into darker territory. Marking the directorial debut of Mary Nighy (daughter of Bill), Kendrick plays a domestic abuse victim coming to terms with the danger of her circumstances. The supporting cast includes Kaniehtiio Horn, Charlie Carrick, and Wunmi Mosaku.
Darling premiered at the Toronto Film Festival. Early reviews have given it an 86% Rotten Tomatoes rating. It debuts December 30th for an awards qualifying run before an AMC Theatres exclusive release beginning January 20th.
Kendrick is a previous Oscar nominee in Supporting Actress 13 years ago for Up in the Air. Initial critical reaction has praised her work. However, distributor Lionsgate has not mounted a visible campaign in an Actress field that’s already crowded.
Bottom line: the director’s dad appears headed for an Actor nod for Living. Darling‘s prospects aren’t up in the air. They’re non-existent. My Oscar Predictions posts will continue…
It has been two weeks since I updated my Oscar predictions and a lot has transpired in those 14 days. We’ve had the National Board of Review and American Film Institute release their best of lists while the Golden Globes and Critics Choice voters unveiled their nominees.
There is a change in BP in the 10th spot. Triangle of Sadness is back in as I’ve taken out The Whale. The bad news for that pic continues as I’ve demoted Brendan Fraser from 1st to 3rd in Actor. Make no mistake – I do believe he can still win. However, the last Best Actor victor whose movie wasn’t nominated was 13 years ago with Jeff Bridges from Crazy Heart. That stat puts Austin Butler and Colin Farrell in the 1-2 spots as I do have their flicks in BP.
The various precursors have caused major movement in the wildly unpredictable Supporting Actress field. Claire Foy (Women Talking) missed the Globes and Critics Choice. She drops from 1st to 4th while Kerry Condon (who made both precursors) is now in 1st. Dolly de Leon (Triangle of Sadness) and Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever) are in the quintet with Jessie Buckley (Women Talking) and Hong Chau (The Whale again) falling out.
While Director and Actress have the same five, there’s a shift in Supporting Actor as Judd Hirsch joins his Fabelmans costar Paul Dano with Women Talking‘s Ben Whishaw on the outside looking in.
I would also note that RRR has gone from unranked status to 11th (knocking right on the door for BP).
We also have new #1’s in Documentary, Cinematography, Makeup and Hairstyling, and Score. Scroll below to track all the movement!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Tár (PR: 6) (+1)
6. Elvis (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Women Talking (PR: 3) (-4)
8. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Babylon (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 11) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
11. RRR (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 13) (+1)
13. The Whale (PR: 8) (-5)
14. She Said (PR: 12) (-2)
15. The Woman King (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Decision to Leave
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)
2. Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)
3. Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Todd Field, Tár (PR: 4) (E)
5. Sarah Polley, Women Talking (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Damien Chazelle, Babylon (PR: 6) (-1)
8. S.S. Rajamouli, RRR (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Ruben Ostlund, Triangle of Sadness (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Baz Luhrmann, Elvis (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave
Edward Berger, All Quiet on the Western Front
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Cate Blanchett, Tár (PR: 1) (E)
2. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)
3. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Danielle Deadwyler, Till (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Margot Robbie, Babylon (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Viola Davis, The Woman King (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Jennifer Lawrence, Causeway (PR: 8) (E)
9. Naomi Ackie, Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance with Somebody (PR: 9) (E)
10. Ana de Armas, Blonde (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Rooney Mara, Women Talking
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Austin Butler, Elvis (PR: 3) (+2)
2. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (E)
3. Brendan Fraser, The Whale (PR: 1) (-2)
4. Bill Nighy, Living (PR: 4) (E)
5. Hugh Jackman, The Son (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Paul Mescal, Aftersun (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Diego Calva, Babylon (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Jeremy Pope, The Inspection (PR: 9) (E)
10. Gabriel LaBelle, The Fabelmans (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Daniel Gimenez Cacho, Bardo
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 5) (+3)
3. Dolly de Leon, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 8) (+5)
4. Claire Foy, Women Talking (PR: 1) (-3)
5. Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jessie Buckley, Women Talking (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 7) (E)
8. Janelle Monae, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Carey Mulligan, She Said (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Hong Chau, The Whale (PR: 4) (-6)
Dropped Out:
Nina Hoss, Tár
Keke Palmer, Nope
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)
2. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (E)
3. Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans (PR: 4) (E)
5. Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Ben Whishaw, Women Talking (PR: 3) (-4)
8. Brad Pitt, Babylon (PR: 8) (E)
9. Eddie Redmayne, The Good Nurse (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Tom Hanks, Elvis (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (E)
4. Tár (PR: 4) (E)
5. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Aftersun (PR: 6) (E)
7. Babylon (PR: 7) (E)
8. Decision to Leave (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Menu (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Elvis (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Bardo
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Women Talking (PR: 1) (E)
2. She Said (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 4) (+1)
4. The Whale (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Living (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. White Noise (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 7) (E)
8. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Son (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Bones and All
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 1) (E)
2. Turning Red (PR: 2) (E)
3. Marcel the Shell with Shoes On (PR: 3) (E)
4. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish (PR: 6) (+2)
5. My Father’s Dragon (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wendell and Wild (PR: 7) (+1)
7. The Bad Guys (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Strange World (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Sea Beast (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Lightyear (PR: 10) (E)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Decision to Leave (PR: 1) (E)
2. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 2) (E)
3. Close (PR: 6) (+3)
4. Saint Omer (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Argentina, 1985 (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Bardo (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Holy Spider (PR: 4) (-3)
8. EO (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Joyland (PR: 9) (E)
10. Klondike (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Alcarras
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. All That Breathes (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Navalany (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Fire of Love (PR: 5) (+2)
4. All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (PR: 1) (-3)
5. Descendant (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Good Night Oppy (PR: 8) (+2)
7. The Territory (PR: 7) (E)
8. Sr. (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Moonage Daydream (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Retrograde (PR: 10) (E)
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Babylon (PR: 1) (-2)
4. The Fabelmans (PR: 4) (E)
5. Empire of Light (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 6) (E)
7. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Bardo (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 9) (E)
10. Nope (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Batman
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Elvis (PR: 2) (E)
3. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Woman King (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Fabelmans (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Corsage (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Living (PR: 7) (-2)
10. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Women Talking
Three Thousand Years of Longing
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)
2. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (E)
4. Elvis (PR: 4) (E)
5. Babylon (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Women Talking (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Tár (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Decision to Leave (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
All Quiet on the Western Front
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Elvis (PR: 2) (+1)
2. The Whale (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Babylon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 6) (+2)
5. The Batman (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Woman King (PR: 8) (+1)
8. X (PR: -1)
9. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Corsage (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Amsterdam
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Women Talking (PR: 3) (+2)
2. Babylon (PR: 1) (-1)
3. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Empire of Light (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Batman (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 7) (-1)
9. White Noise (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Tár (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Living
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)
2. “Naatu Naatu” from RRR (PR: 3) (+1)
3. “Lift Me Up” from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 2) (-1)
4. “Ciao Papa” from Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 7) (+3)
5. “Applause” from Tell It Like a Woman (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Carolina” from Where the Crawdads Sing (PR: 9) (+3)
7. “New Body Rhumba” from White Noise (PR: 8) (+1)
8. “This Is A Life” from Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 5) (-3)
9. “Nobody Like U” from Turning Red (PR: 6) (-3)
10. “Nothing Is Lost (You Give Me Strength)” from Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 10) (E)
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 2) (E)
3. Elvis (PR: 3) (E)
4. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Fabelmans (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 7) (E)
8. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 5) (-3)
9. The Woman King (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Empire of Light (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
All Quiet on the Western Front
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1 . Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)
2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 2) (E)
3. Elvis (PR: 6) (+3)
4. The Batman (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Babylon (PR: 7) (+1)
7. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Nope (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 10) (+1)
10. RRR (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Fabelmans
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 1) (E)
2. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 2) (E)
3. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 3) (E)
4. RRR (PR: 8) (+4)
5. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Batman (PR: 6) (E)
7. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 7) (E)
8. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 4) (-4)
9. Good Night Oppy (PR: 9) (E)
10. Nope (PR: 10) (E)
That equates to these movies hitting these numbers in terms of nominations:
10 Nominations
Everything Everywhere All at Once
9 Nominations
The Fabelmans
8 Nominations
Babylon, The Banshees of Inisherin
7 Nominations
Elvis
6 Nominations
Top Gun: Maverick
5 Nominations
Avatar: The Way of Water, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Women Talking
4 Nominations
Tár
3 Nominations
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Triangle of Sadness, The Whale
2 Nominations
The Batman, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Living, RRR
1 Nomination
All Quiet on the Western Front, All That Breathes, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, Argentina, 1985, Close, Decision to Leave, Descendant, Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, Empire of Light, Fire of Love, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, My Father’s Dragon, Navalny, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, Saint Omer, She Said, The Son, Tell It Like a Woman, Till, Turning Red, The Woman King
The nation of India has seen three of their movies up for Best International Feature Film at the Oscars – 1957’s Mother India, 1988’s Salaam Bombay!, and Lagaan from 2001. That averages out to a nod every 18 years or so. They should be due for another.
However, it appears a gigantic opportunity was missed when India opted not to submit RRR for consideration. S.S. Rajamouli’s epic action pic (available on Netflix) has its enthusiastic champions among reviewers and audiences. Just this week, it was named in the foreign competition at the Golden Globes and for Best Picture at the Critics Choice Awards. There is growing buzz that it could land a nod with the Academy in BP. In other words, its home country should’ve made it their horse in the international derby. If they had, not only would RRR be close to a shoo-in for the quintet, it would be a favorite to take the prize over Decision to Leave and All Quiet on the Western Front and others.
India instead went with Pan Nalin’s Last Film Show. The coming-of-age drama premiered all the way back in the summer of 2021 at the Tribeca Film Festival. On paper, it makes sense why it was selected. Film sounds like more of a traditional pick than the wild RRR. The Rotten Tomatoes score is an impressive 95%. It has picked up kudos playing the festival circuit. However, it simply hasn’t picked up much steam and hasn’t shown up with any precursors.
Bottom line: India would be positioned for a fourth nominee (and potential victor) with RRR. Not with this. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
This year’s crop of Supporting Actress hopefuls is a vast one and easily the toughest to predict of the four acting races. Earlier in the week, the Golden Globes and the Critics Choice Awards named their nominees. For Supporting Actress, only three performers managed nods in both: Angela Bassett for Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Kerry Condon in The Banshees of Inisherin, and Jamie Lee Curtis for Everything Everywhere All at Once. Additional contenders for the Globe are Dolly de Leon (Triangle of Sadness) and Carey Mulligan (She Said). For Critics Choice – it is Jessie Buckley (Women Talking), Stephanie Hsu (Everything Everywhere All at Once), and Janelle Monae (Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery).
Of the 8 actresses vying for victory, there are two surprising women not being talked about. Hong Chau (The Whale) and Claire Foy (Women Talking) were snubbed by the Globes and Critics Choice. I have had Foy listed at #1 in my Oscar picks for many weeks and I’ve had Chau in and out of my high five. Their double omissions put them at a disadvantage. There are only six Supporting Actress Oscar nominees in the past decade who missed both the Globes and Critics Choice: Jacki Weaver (Silver Linings Playbook), Laura Dern (Wild), Lesley Manville (Phantom Thread), and Marina de Tavira (Roma). It is worthy of note the other two were from just last year – Jessie Buckley (The Lost Daughter) and Judi Dench (Belfast). None of them won the Oscar so you can bet Foy will at least drop from #1 when I update my predictions this weekend.
On the flip side, there are also 6 women who did land Globe and Critics mentions and were ignored by the Academy. They are Jessica Chastain in A Most Violent Year, Helen Mirren from Trumbo, Jennifer Lopez in Hustlers, and Caitriona Balfe for Belfast.
The two I’m holding back on are quite interesting…
Hong Chau in 2017’s Downsizing and Claire Foy in 2018’s First Man. They were both expected to pick up nods from the Oscar voters and didn’t. In 2022, they find themselves in the opposite situation. After being left off the ballots for two major precursors, they could miss a nomination and no one would be taken aback. Yet as the Academy showed with Foy’s Women Talking costar Jessie Buckley last year and Dame Judi, this branch could go their own way and include either (especially after noticeably ignoring them a few years back).
I’d rather be Bassett, Condon, and Curtis right now when it comes to viability. For Chau and Foy – the odds aren’t in their favor like they were five and four years back. Those odds didn’t help them then. Perhaps their longer ones will prove to their benefit this time around.
Blogger’s Update (12/20): I am revising my Babylon prediction down to $8.7 million
The La La Land man turns his attention to the debauchery of Hollywood’s early days in Babylon. Damien Chazelle directs the epic dramedy that rivals Avatar: The Way of Water (188 minutes) in terms of length. Brad Pitt, Margot Robbie, Diego Calva, Jean Smart, Jovan Adepo, Li Jun Li, Lukas Haas, Max Minghella, Samara Weaving, Olivia Wilde, and Tobey Maguire are among the sprawling cast.
While the review embargo hasn’t officially lifted, social media reactions are all over the map. There’s praise and contempt for the hard R rated extravaganza. This week it received five Golden Globes nods (including Best Picture – Musical/Comedy) and nine mentions from the Critics Choice Awards (including Best Picture). Oscar attention is anticipated.
There’s comparisons in terms of tone (and rampant drug use) to The Wolf of Wall Street from 2013. It also was presented during the Christmas season to a traditional three-day haul of just over $18 million. That’s probably the ceiling of where Babylon would manage.
I’ll project lower double digits is where this starts as it hopes the buzz keeps it going into the new year.
Babylon opening weekend prediction: $8.7 million (REVISED)
For my Puss in Boots: The Last Wish prediction, click here:
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