It hasn’t really been looked at too seriously for Oscar attention and now next week’s In the Heart of the Sea has screened for critics. Ron Howard’s epic true story whale tale that inspired Moby Dick stars Chris Hemsworth, Benjamin Walker, Cillian Murphy, Ben Whishaw, and Brendan Gleeson.
For what once appeared as a major potential box office player, Sea seems to be flying under the radar. As mentioned, while it didn’t seem like much of an awards contender, it was always worth mentioning due to Howard’s track record. Plus you just never know… nobody expected Creed to become the legit contender that it certainly has.
Now that reviews are out – it’s safe to say that this will not be hearing its name called for Academy nominations. Both trade papers weren’t too kind. Opening a week before something called Star Wars: The Force Awakens, this could struggle at the box office as well (my prediction post will be up tomorrow, by the way). And today solidified what most of us suspected: there will be no wave of awards attention for Sea.
In 2002, the New York Film Critics Circle (NYFCC) went gaga over Todd Haynes’s drama Far From Heaven, bestowing it with their award for Best Picture, Director, Supporting Actor (Dennis Quaid), and Supporting Actress (Patricia Clarkson). Yet when it came time for Oscar nominations, none of those picks were reflected with the Academy.
Thirteen years later, could history repeat itself again for Mr. Haynes? It’s a worthy question as the NYFCC have showered love upon his latest project, Carol. The 1950s drama centering on a lesbian relationship won big at their ceremony today, taking Picture and Director. The Big Apple critics appreciation for Carol gives it a somewhat needed boost for its Oscar chances. When it screened at film festivals earlier this year, it seemed close to a lock for Picture recognition but its stock has waned some.
As I did yesterday with the National Board of Review’s selections, it’s important to show you how often each critics organization matches what the Academy ends up doing. With the NYFCC, 12 out of their last 15 selections for Best Picture (the ones in the 21st century) have gone onto Oscar nominations in the same category. The exceptions were the aforementioned Heaven, 2001’s Mulholland Drive, and 2006’s United 93.
The same 12/15 ratio extends to the Directing category in which winners were Academy snubbed. Besides Haynes, the others were Mike Leigh for 2008’s Happy Go Lucky and Kathyn Bigelow for 2012’s Zero Dark Thirty.
I believe it’s much more likely that Carol manages a slot in the Picture race come Oscar nomination time than Haynes himself, but we’ll see how that plays out well as my predictions continue to be updated on the blog.
As for the acting races – the NYFCC hit us with two surprises. The biggest was Supporting Actress where they selected Kristen Stewart for her work in the little seen Clouds of Sils Maria. While she’s been mentioned as a possibility, very few prognosticators (this one included) have picked her for a Oscar nomination. I still don’t see it happening, but this win does raise her profile for sure. It’s also worth noting that only 2 of the last 15 NYFCC recipients in this category haven’t received Academy attention (the aforementioned Clarkson for Heaven and Maria Bello in 2005’s A History of Violence). Even more surprising is that the NYFCC didn’t honor Rooney Mara’s work in Carol, since many consider her the most likely winner for the gold statue.
The other surprise was Best Actor, which went to Michael Keaton in Spotlight. The shocker was the category he won for because Mr. Keaton is being campaigned for in Supporting Actor and not lead. It’s highly likely that the Bat/Birdman will be recognized come Oscar time… just not in the race where the NYFCC feted him. Of note: three past winners in the 21st century didn’t get Oscar nods: Paul Giamatti in 2004’s Sideways and the last two recipients: Robert Redford for All is Lost and Timothy Spall as Mr. Turner.
Actress went to Saoirse Ronan for Brooklyn and her Academy nod seems pretty much assured. She joins Room‘s Brie Larson (who won the NBR yesterday), Joy‘s Jennifer Lawrence, and Carol‘s Cate Blanchett as front runners for award attention into the future. As with Actor, three winners out of the past 15 didn’t receive Academy attention: Hope Davis for 2003’s American Splendor, Sally Hawkins for 2008’s Happy Go Lucky, and Rachel Weisz for 2012’s The Deep Blue Sea.
Supporting Actor went to Mark Rylance in Bridge of Spies and he’s also a strong contender in the big race. It is worth noting that the NYFCC has actually picked five out of their last 15 winners that never made it to the Academy’s red carpet: the previously mentioned Quaid in 2002, Steve Buscemi for Ghost World (2001), Eugene Levy in A Mighty Wind (2003), Albert Brooks in Drive (2011), and Matthew McConaughey for Magic Mike and Bernie (2012).
Bottom line: a solid day for Carol and we’ll see if the momentum keeps up as my analysis for the 2015 awards season keeps rolling along…
A summertime thrill ride that has served as a resurgence for a thirty year old action franchise got a big Oscar boost today when Mad Max: Fury Road won the National Board of Review (NBR) award for Best Picture. This was an upset. While George Miller’s return to kinetic and wild adventure set pieces earned universal critical acclaim, it’s not really been looked at as a given for a Picture nod at the Academy Awards. The NBR attention does nothing but help.
Over this century, the NBR’s Picture winner has been nominated for the big race at the Oscars 14 out of 16 times (the exceptions were 2000’s Quills and last year’s A Most Violent Year). On the other hand, only two of the past 16 NBR honorees have won the Academy’s honor (2007’s No Country for Old Men and 2008’s Slumdog Millionaire).
I would still say that Fury Road is no shoo in for a nomination, but its chances no doubt increased with the announcement this afternoon. I also believe a scenario (and maybe a stronger one) exists where Miller gets a directing nomination with the film being left off of the Best Picture group come announcement time.
The NBR also names an additional nine favorite movies of the year. They were: Bridge of Spies, Creed, The Hateful Eight, Inside Out, The Martian, Room, Sicario, Spotlight, and Straight Outta Compton. Of these films, Sicario and Compton are seen as least likely to receive Oscar attention. Both are still possible and Creed‘s stock keeps rising.
High profile Oscar contenders left off? The Revenant, Steve Jobs, Joy, Anomalisa, Brooklyn, and Carol. However, the NBR list and the Academy list never match and expect some of these titles to be included in the big race.
Besides Max, the other pic to get a huge NBR boost is The Martian, where Ridley Scott won Best Director and Matt Damon won Best Actor. Again, neither are shoo ins for Oscar nods but their inclusion is seeming more and more probable.
As for the other acting categories, Brie Larson’s work in Room marked her first win in what could be several and her Oscar nod seems assured. Sylvester Stallone was victorious in Supporting Actor for Creed and it would now be a surprise if Oscar doesn’t call his name among the five nominees. The same is likely for Jennifer Jason Leigh in The Hateful Eight, who won Supporting Actress.
This day really marked the official beginning of the awards season and there’ll be much more to chew on (other critics group, Golden Globes, SAG Awards) before the Academy reveals their choices. And this blog will be following and keeping you up to date all the way. Stay tuned!
When it comes to Oscar nominations over the first half of this decade, no director matches the incredible track record of David O. Russell. Let’s do some math, shall we? His last three pictures – 2010’s The Fighter, 2012’s Silver Linings Playbook, 2013’s American Hustle – have scored a combined 25 Academy Award nods. All three were nominated for Best Picture. Russell was in the Directing race for each film. The trio of pics nabbed a total of 11 acting nominations resulting in three victories: Christian Bale (Supporting Actor for The Fighter), Melissa Leo (Supporting Actress for The Fighter), and Jennifer Lawrence (Actress for Silver Linings Playbook).
Therefore, it’s obvious that December’s Joy has been high on the list for potential Oscar attention. Over the weekend, it screened for critics and journalists for the first time. While reviews are officially embargoed until mid December, the word is that Russell likely has his fourth contender in a row. Early buzz makes one thing clear: Lawrence is in line to receive her fourth nomination as the title character in Best Actress. At this point, it’d be a shock if she’s not included. This would mark her third recognition in a row from the Academy working with Russell (winning for Playbook, nominated for Hustle). As for other acting races, it’s murkier. Bradley Cooper would also be going for his third nomination in a row with Russell, but his part is said to be small and he probably won’t be included. Robert De Niro, on the other hand, has potential with his supporting turn. His last nomination was in the same category for Playbook. Diane Ladd is rumored to be the Supporting Actress most in contention over costars Virginia Madsen and Isabella Rossellini.
It would also seem that Joy remains a strong contender for Best Picture recognition and that could extend to Russell’s fourth time in the Director category. As stated, Russell’s films have been an Oscar juggernaut and it’s unlikely to let up here (especially with J Law). A caveat: some of the initial reaction for this isn’t quite as over the moon as the director’s last efforts, so I would write Joy‘s Best Picture nomination and Russell’s down in pencil, not pen until officials reviews are released. Feel free to use a Bic with Lawrence.
Since summer, it’s been clear that one 2015 animated film is a true contender in the Best Picture race: Pixar’s Inside Out. Yet it’s becoming increasingly likely that there may be two and the other is in the form of Charlie Kaufman’s Anomalisa.
Known for his ingenious screenplays that include Being John Malkovich, Adaptation and Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind, Kaufman’s latest is an experimental stop motion comedy drama featuring the voices of David Thewlis, Jennifer Jason Leigh and Tom Noonan. It is not an animated pic for kids with its R rating. Anomalisa premiered at Telluride before winning the Grand Jury prize at the Venice Film Festival.
Critics have gone gaga over it as its Rotten Tomatoes score is a cool 100%. Its inclusion in the Animated Feature race is a foregone conclusion. The question is whether or not it could gather enough mojo to be included in the big race, Picture. Right now I feel it’s on the outside looking in, but if any December contenders like Joy or The Hateful Eight falter, I could be singing a different tune. Anomalisa is one to keep an eye on.
We have arrived at my third round of Oscar predictions for the month of November. Some has changed, some has stayed the same. We’ll go through each of the six major categories one by one…
Let’s go!
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
This is the one category where I’ve made no changes, though any of the others listed as possibilities could find their way in. Most have Jane Fonda in the mix already, but I’m not quite there yet.
TODD’S PREDICTIONS in SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Joan Allen, Room
Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
Rooney Mara, Carol
Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs
Other Possibilities:
Elizabeth Banks, Love and Mercy
Jane Fonda, Youth
Diane Ladd, Joy
Rachel McAdams, Spotlight
Isabella Rossellini, Joy
Julie Walters, Brooklyn
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
And here we have the most changes of any category! Coming out of nowhere last week was Sylvester Stallone’s acclaimed performance in Creed and as of now, here appears to be a strong contender for a nod and maybe even the win. I’m also including Mark Ruffalo and re-including Idris Elba. Falling out are Benicio del Toro, Robert De Niro, and Tom Hardy, though they all remain possibles. This category has a whole lot of potential nominees, but only five slots available.
TODD’S PREDICTIONS for SUPPORTING ACTOR
Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation
Michael Keaton, Spotlight
Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight
Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
Sylvester Stallone, Creed
Other Possibilities:
Christian Bale, The Big Short
Bradley Cooper, Joy
Paul Dano, Love and Mercy
Benicio del Toro, Sicario
Robert De Niro, Joy
Joel Edgerton, Black Mass
Harrison Ford, Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Tom Hardy, The Revenant
Samuel L. Jackson, The Hateful Eight
Harvey Keitel, Youth
Jason Mitchell, Straight Outta Compton
Kurt Russell, The Hateful Eight
Jacob Tremblay, Room
BEST ACTRESS
Four slots seem to be rather safe and have been for awhile: Cate Blanchett, Brie Larson, Jennifer Lawrence, and Saoirse Ronan. The fifth slot could legitimately be any of the others listed, but for now I’ve removed Carey Mulligan and replaced her with Blythe Danner.
TODD’S PREDICTIONS for ACTRESS
Cate Blanchett, Carol
Blythe Danner, I’ll See You in My Dreams
Brie Larson, Room
Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn
Other Possibilities:
Emily Blunt, Sicario
Carey Mulligan, Suffragette
Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years
Maggie Smith, The Lady in the Van
Charlize Theron, Mad Max: Fury Road
Lily Tomlin, Grandma
BEST ACTOR
Only one change here as I currently feel the massive box office success of The Martian will get Matt Damon in. That takes Michael Caine out. Watch out for Will Smith, though, even though I don’t yet have him in the final cut.
TODD’S PREDICTIONS for ACTOR
Matt Damon, The Martian
Johnny Depp, Black Mass
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl
Other Possibilities:
Michael Caine, Youth
Bryan Cranston, Trumbo
Tom Hanks, Bridge of Spies
Michael B. Jordan, Creed
Will Smith, Concussion
BEST DIRECTOR
Two changes here as I believe Danny Boyle may miss out and George Miller won’t be the wild card pick I predicted in October. This puts David O. Russell and Ridley Scott in.
TODD’S PREDICTIONS for DIRECTOR
Lenny Abrahamson, Room
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, The Revenant
Tom McCarthy, Spotlight
David O. Russell, Joy
Ridley Scott, The Martian
Other Possibilities:
Danny Boyle, Steve Jobs
Ryan Coogler, Creed
John Crowley, Brooklyn
Cary Fukanaga, Beasts of No Nation
Todd Haynes, Carol
Tom Hooper, The Danish Girl
George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road
Steven Spielberg, Bridge of Spies
Quentin Tarantino, The Hateful Eight
BEST PICTURE
I am still predicting nine nominees out of the possible five-ten and I’ve made two changes. I’m putting Carol back in the mix and The Martian in for the first time. That leaves out Bridge of Spies and The Danish Girl, though both remain major contenders. It’s worth noting that Steve Jobs, due to its disastrous box office performance, is not even close to a shoo in and it could fall off.
TODD’s PREDICTIONS for PICTURE
Brooklyn
Carol
The Hateful Eight
Joy
The Martian
The Revenant
Room
Spotlight
Steve Jobs
Other Possibilities:
Beasts of No Nation
The Big Short
Bridge of Spies
Creed
The Danish Girl
Inside Out
In the Heart of the Sea
Mad Max: Fury Road
Sicario
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Straight Outta Comption
And that does it for my November Oscar predictions, folks! I’ll have the December predictions up shortly before Christmas…
One of the huge shoes left to drop in the 2015 Oscar race did so as Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu’s The Revenant screened for Academy voters last night. While official reviews are embargoed until next Friday, there was plenty of word that leaked out and it’s given us a general direction on its Oscar prospects.
The verdict? It sounds as if The Revenant is well on its way to a Best Picture and Director nomination. Some watchers loved it while others were more cautious, but its inclusion as a nominee in these big races seems pretty much assured right now.
Furthermore, last evening’s word of mouth indicates an unquestionable nomination for star Leonardo DiCaprio, who’s been nominated four times and never won. The fifth time, in a Best Actor race that is less competitive than in recent year, could finally be the charm. It appears less certain whether or not Tom Hardy will be a player in Supporting Actor, though that should become more clear when reviews are out late next week.
Cinematographer Emmanuel Lubezki is also being heaped with praise and he could be the first individual to win the race three times in a row (after Gravity and Birdman).
Of course, director Inarritu is the man behind Birdman and he saw that effort win himself an Oscar, as well as the film itself last year. History has a shot of repeating itself this time. And for all the deserved chatter over the years about the craziness of Leo being Oscar-less, it could be well on its way to changing quite soon.
For younger moviegoers, the thought of Rocky Balboa and Oscar buzz being in the same sentence may seem somewhat comical. Not so. The original Rocky was released nearly forty years ago in 1976 and it punched out some serious competition to win Best Picture. And when I say serious competition, I’m talking about Taxi Driver, Network, and All the President’s Men. Sylvester Stallone earned himself a Best Actor nod, though lost to Network‘s Peter Finch.
As we all know, a number of sequels followed that varied in quality. Stallone did not direct the original as John G. Avildsen was behind the camera (he would win the Director Academy Award for his efforts). Avildsen returned to direct 1990’s Rocky V, which is justifiably and ironically considered the worst of the follow-ups. Yet Stallone would direct the four other sequels (parts II, III, IV, and 2006’s Rocky Balboa).
Stallone has relinquished his directorial duties for next week’s Creed, turning the camera over to Ryan Coogler, who made 2013’s critically lauded Fruitvale Station. The pic focuses on the boxing career of the late Apollo Creed’s son and he’s played by Michael B. Jordan, who starred in Station. Stallone is back for the seventh time as Philadelphia’s favorite fighter and his role here finds him more in the Mickey role as Creed’s trainer.
It may have taken nearly four (or in Rocky speak – IV) decades, but it seems like legitimate Oscar buzz for the franchise is back. The initial reviews were released today and it currently stands at 80% on Rotten Tomatoes, with Entertainment Weekly calling it easily the best of the series since the original.
Creed has been praised for Jordan’s lead performance, though it seems unlikely he would find himself in the mix for Best Actor. Additionally, even with the strong notices, I don’t foresee it being recognized for Picture or Director. So where could voters decide to recognize it?
Back to Stallone. The Academy loves a good story and how about one in which an iconic actor is nominated in Supporting Actor for his most famed role 40 years after he was nominated in lead Actor for that same part? Sounds like a heckuva story to me!
When my third round of Oscar predictions comes later this month, don’t be surprised to find Sly in the mix for Supporting Actor whereas I hadn’t even listed him as a possibility before. Today’s tale of the tape on Creed makes it clear: Stallone could be a contender.
The last piece of the AFI Film Festival puzzle as it relates to Oscar potential was unveiled Thursday night as Adam McKay’s The Big Short screened. You don’t normally (as in ever before now) see director McKay’s name linked to Academy Awards buzz. We know him best for making Will Ferrell comedies like Anchorman, Talladega Nights, and The Other Guys.
Yet this comedy with some drama mixed in focuses on the financial and housing crises of recent years and features a stellar cast that includes Steve Carell, Christian Bale, Ryan Gosling, Brad Pitt, Melissa Leo, and Marisa Tomei. And when Paramount pushed it up from a release date in 2016 to Christmas time this year, it was seen by some as a move to put it in the Oscar race.
The verdict? Pretty strong, but reviews haven’t been met with universal acclaim. Some critics have been quite positive though and when it comes to the performances, attention has turned to Carell for Actor and Bale in Supporting Actor (a category he won in 2010 for The Fighter). Even though the Best Actor race is less competitive in 2015 than it’s been in recent year, I still feel Carell is a bit of a long shot for consideration unless the movie really takes off. Same goes for Bale. I would also say its inclusion in Best Picture seems iffy, at best.
As you know, however, these things can change over the next couple of months and The Big Short at least established itself as a potential player in the weeks ahead.
Last night at the AFI Film Festival, critics got their first look at Concussion – the eagerly awaited pic centering on the NFL’s policies regarding brain injuries. The film wasn’t ever really looked at as a major threat in Best Picture or Director (Peter Landesman) and that hasn’t changed. It’s so far received mixed notices and sits at 57% on Rotten Tomatoes. Supporting players like Alec Baldwin, Gugu Mbatha-Raw and Albert Brooks are also unlikely to be factors.
Where Concussion does stand a very real shot at a nod is for its lead actor, Will Smith. Critics have specifically singled him out and it could well mean a third nomination for Big Willie after 2001’s Ali and 2007’s The Pursuit of Happyness. It also helps that this year’s Actor race doesn’t seem quite as competitive compared to the last couple of years. Others in the mix include last year’s winner Eddie Redmayne for The Danish Girl, Michael Fassbender for box office flop Steve Jobs, Matt Damon in box office bonanza The Martian, Michael Caine for Youth, Johnny Depp in Black Mass, and Leonardo DiCaprio in the as yet unseen The Revenant.
Considering that crowd, it’s pretty easy to see Smith finding himself in the fold, especially if Concussion does well at the box office. He may find himself among my predicted nominees for the first time when my third round of predictions hits next week. Concussion arrives in theaters on Christmas.
