Blogger’s Note (10/25/18): On the eve of its premiere, I am revising my estimate down from $10.2 million to $8.2 million
Gerard Butler headlines the action thriller Hunter Killer next weekend alongside Gary Oldman, Common, Linda Cardellini, and Toby Stephens. The submarine set pic comes out in the Halloween frame – which is typically a slow one at the box office. It will, at best, come in second to sophomore weekend for Halloween.
While there doesn’t seem to be much buzz for it, Butler has seen his recent efforts make a little more than anticipated. This includes Den of Thieves from earlier this year, which took in over $15 million. Even last year’s costly flop Geostorm still managed to make nearly $14 million.
I don’t see that kind of performance here, but I do think Killer could top double digits. On the other hand, it could debut on pace with something like Operation Finale from August. That action thriller didn’t even make $8 million over the long Labor Day frame.
This could be a bit high, but I’ve learned to spot Butler a couple million lately. I’ll say a gross between $10-$11 million is the likely scenario.
Hunter Killer opening weekend prediction: $8.2 million
For my Johnny English Strikes Again prediction, click here:
Blogger’s Note (09/06/18): I am making a change at #5 spot for the weekend and taking out Mission: Impossible – Fallout (still predicted at $4.1 million) and replacing it with Searching at $4.2 million.
While my attention on the blog has shifted in recent days to the many Oscar hopefuls premiering at film festivals, we still have box office predictions to consider. And there’s a trio of newcomers opening this weekend: horror pic TheNun from the Conjuring Cinematic Universe, Jennifer Garner revenge thriller Peppermint, and faith-based war drama GodBlesstheBrokenRoad. You can peruse my individual prediction posts on each of them here:
TheNun (with my mid 40s estimate) should have no trouble ending the three-week reign of CrazyRichAsians atop the charts. TheConjuring franchise has been remarkably consistent in its opening weekend grosses and I expect that will continue here.
With that scary sister easily holding down the top spot, the real battle could be at #2 between Asians and Peppermint. I’ll give the former the edge by a couple million.
Summer holdovers The Meg and Mission: Impossible – Fallout should round out the top five. My lowly $2.1 million take on God Bless the Broken Road leaves it on the outside looking in.
And with that, my top 5 take on the weekend ahead:
Crazy Rich Asians easily topped the charts for the third frame in a row with $28.5 million over the Labor Day long holiday weekend (I was just a tad over at $30.6 million). The breakout comedy of the summer is up to $117 million thus far.
The Meg followed in second at $13.8 million (I said $14.5 million) for a tally of $123 million.
Mission: Impossible – Fallout was third with $9.3 million, in range with my $10 million projection. The sixth franchise entry stands at $206 million and is right on the doorstep at becoming the series highest domestic earner. That record is currently held by part 2 with $215 million.
Operation Finale had the biggest debut of the weekend in fourth with $7.8 million. I was close with an $8.8 million estimate. The Oscar Isaac/Ben Kingsley Nazi hunting drama has earned $9.6 million since its Wednesday opening.
The critically acclaimed computer screen set thriller Searching was close behind in fifth with $7.6 million, just ahead of my $7.1 million forecast. Counting its limited release a week prior, it’s made $8.1 million total.
I incorrectly had Christopher Robin in the top 5 but it placed 6th with $7.2 million (I said $8 million). The Winnie the Pooh tale has earned $87 million as it seems likely to eek out a $100 million gross.
A trio of newcomers all posted unimpressive results. Sci-fi family adventure Kin was 12th with $3.8 million (I was right there at $3.9 million). Mexican import Ya Veremos placed 14th at $2.2 million (I said $2.5 million). And the poorly reviewed Gothic horror effort The Little Stranger managed a piddling $496,000 for 23rd position… way under my $2.6 million guess.
The summer box office season officially draws to a close this Labor Day weekend and there’s five new releases to consider. They are the Oscar Isaac/Ben Kingsley Nazi hunting drama Operation Finale, John Cho’s computer based thriller Searching, family sci-fi tale Kin, Gothic horror tale The Little Stranger and Mexican import Ya Veremos. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:
I don’t have any of them breaking the $10 million mark for the four-day holiday weekend. I have Finale faring the best, mostly due to the fact that it’s slated to open on about 700 more screens than the critically hailed Searching.
My $3.9 million estimate for Kin, $2.6 million projection for Stranger and $2.5 million forecast for Veremos leave them outside of the top five. And even my $7.1 million prediction for Searching leaves it on the outside looking in.
The Labor Day weekend typically means that holdovers will experience increases in their grosses from the previous weekend. There is, of course, an extra day of totals to consider so that doesn’t hurt. It is not uncommon to see percentage bumps anywhere from the mid teens to high 20s and I expect that will hold true once again.
That means Crazy Rich Asians should have no trouble at all holding the top spot for the third frame in a row. Giving it an increase in the low to mid twenties seems plausible and that could it mean hits over $30 million. I suspect The Meg, Mission: Impossible – Fallout, and Christopher Robin will also experience solid weekends.
The only holdover that may fall is The Happytime Murders, which had a pretty bad debut over the weekend (more on that below).
And with that, my top 5 estimates for the long Labor Day weekend:
1. Crazy Rich Asians
Predicted Gross: $30.6 million
2. The Meg
Predicted Gross: $14.5 million
3. Mission: Impossible – Fallout
Predicted Gross: $10 million
4. OperationFinale
Predicted Gross: $8.8 million
5. ChristopherRobin
Predicted Gross: $8 million
Box Office Results (August 24-26)
CrazyRichAsians had a magnificent hold in its sophomore weekend to easily remain #1. The comedy dropped just 6%, taking in $24.8 million (blasting past my $16.9 million estimate). The two-week total is $76 million.
TheMeg was second with $12.8 million (I said $11.2 million). The shark tale crossed the century mark and stands at $105 million after three weeks.
TheHappytimeMurders proved American audiences were in no mood for randy puppets. The poorly reviewed pic was third with a putrid $9.5 million, falling under my $13.8 million forecast.
Mission: Impossible – Fallout was fourth with $8 million (ahead of my $6.8 million take). It’s edging close to $200 million with $193 million total.
Mile22 rounded out the top five with $6.3 million (I said $7.5 million). The Mark Wahlberg action thriller has made a middling $25 million in its two weeks of release.
Finally, robot dog flick A.X.L. opened meekly in 10th position with $2.7 million. It did manage to edge past my $2.1 million prediction.
Historical thriller Operation Finale sets out in theaters this Labor Day weekend, hoping to bring in an adult audience looking for very late summer entertainment. The tale of Jewish Nazi hunters comes from director Chris Weitz, whose eclectic filmography includes About a Boy and The Twilight Saga: New Moon. Oscar Isaac, Ben Kingsley, Melanie Laurent, Haley Lu Richardson, Lior Raz, Nick Kroll, and Joe Alwyn star.
Unlike most holiday frames, Labor Day is not known for huge debuts and Finale could struggle to find a decent start. While the Star Wars franchise has certainly given Isaac exposure, nothing has shown he can open a picture.
I’ll predict a high single digits gross over the long weekend. That means it should hit double digits when factoring in the Wednesday opening.
Operation Finale opening weekend prediction: $8.8 million (Friday to Monday estimate)
All My Life... I Wanted To Be A Blogster 